polly-gamba 1.0.31 → 1.0.32

package/dist/claude-trader.js

@@ -310,6 +310,7 @@ CLOSE RULES — apply ALL that match, no thesis override allowed:
 5. You have 2+ open positions in the SAME market with the SAME outcome — close the NEWER entry (higher ts value) regardless of P&L. Duplicate same-outcome positions double exposure without incremental edge. Keep the original entry.
 6. Position is UP >25% from entry AND has been held >48h — CLOSE to lock in profits. The market has moved significantly in your favor; gains are now vulnerable to reversion. Use take_profit reason. Exception: if the resolution event is within 7 days AND the position is still clearly on the right side, you may hold until resolution.
 7. STALE POSITION: Position held >7 days AND price has moved <5% from entry AND resolution event is >30 days away — CLOSE to redeploy capital. A position that doesn't move over 7 days means the mispricing wasn't as large as estimated. Cut it, accept the small loss/gain, and redeploy to markets with active price movement.
+8. CONCENTRATION VIOLATION: Count open positions by underlying theme (the single real-world event that resolves all of them). Examples: "Will Jesus return before GTA VI", "Will BTC hit $1M before GTA VI", "Will China invade Taiwan before GTA VI" all share the theme "GTA VI release date". Similarly "Will Spurs win NBA Finals", "Will OKC win NBA Finals", "Will Celtics win NBA Finals" all share the theme "2026 NBA Finals". If you have 3+ positions in the same theme, close the one with the smallest current edge (current price closest to 50/50 or furthest from your target) to reduce to 2 positions. Apply this BEFORE checking other rules.
 
 HOLD RULES: If NONE of the close rules apply and exit trigger NOT triggered, do nothing (no output needed).`;
         const msg = JSON.stringify({

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "polly-gamba",
-  "version": "1.0.31",
+  "version": "1.0.32",
   "description": "Coinbase price signal → Claude brain → Polymarket CLOB execution",
   "main": "dist/index.js",
   "bin": {

package/service.log

@@ -800,3 +800,230 @@ npm warn deprecated prebuild-install@7.1.3: No longer maintained. Please contact
 [gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
 [expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
 [expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 17 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 17 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 17 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 17 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 17 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 566140 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540843 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=5 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 495 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 568629 YES — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540843 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] WARNING: no price data for 540819 NO — skipping review (market may be resolved or delisted)
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=6 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 14 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 14 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 14 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 14 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[scan] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[expiring] failed to fetch markets: fetch failed
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[signal] ETH down -0.50% @ $2,033.31 over 58s
+[signal] ETH down 0.50% @ $2,033.31
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 485 markets (filtered from 500)
+[match] 20 markets for ETH signal
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[scan] 14 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 14 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 14 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 14 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 14 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 hard_stops=0 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 494 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 14 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle

package/src/claude-trader.ts

@@ -362,6 +362,7 @@ CLOSE RULES — apply ALL that match, no thesis override allowed:
 5. You have 2+ open positions in the SAME market with the SAME outcome — close the NEWER entry (higher ts value) regardless of P&L. Duplicate same-outcome positions double exposure without incremental edge. Keep the original entry.
 6. Position is UP >25% from entry AND has been held >48h — CLOSE to lock in profits. The market has moved significantly in your favor; gains are now vulnerable to reversion. Use take_profit reason. Exception: if the resolution event is within 7 days AND the position is still clearly on the right side, you may hold until resolution.
 7. STALE POSITION: Position held >7 days AND price has moved <5% from entry AND resolution event is >30 days away — CLOSE to redeploy capital. A position that doesn't move over 7 days means the mispricing wasn't as large as estimated. Cut it, accept the small loss/gain, and redeploy to markets with active price movement.
+8. CONCENTRATION VIOLATION: Count open positions by underlying theme (the single real-world event that resolves all of them). Examples: "Will Jesus return before GTA VI", "Will BTC hit $1M before GTA VI", "Will China invade Taiwan before GTA VI" all share the theme "GTA VI release date". Similarly "Will Spurs win NBA Finals", "Will OKC win NBA Finals", "Will Celtics win NBA Finals" all share the theme "2026 NBA Finals". If you have 3+ positions in the same theme, close the one with the smallest current edge (current price closest to 50/50 or furthest from your target) to reduce to 2 positions. Apply this BEFORE checking other rules.
 
 HOLD RULES: If NONE of the close rules apply and exit trigger NOT triggered, do nothing (no output needed).`