polly-gamba 1.0.18 → 1.0.20

package/dist/claude-trader.js

@@ -254,7 +254,7 @@ For EVERY market above: if price differs from fair probability by >8%, place a t
         await this.redis.ltrim(`${prefix}:reviews`, 0, 9999);
         const positionLines = positions.map(p => {
             const gainPct = (p.gain_pct * 100).toFixed(1);
-            const stopLossWarning = p.gain_pct <= -0.35 ? ' ⚠️ HARD STOP ZONE (-35%)' : '';
+            const stopLossWarning = p.gain_pct <= -0.35 ? ' ⚠️ HARD STOP (-35%+ loss — Rule 2/4 MUST apply)' : '';
             return `### ${p.market_id} ${p.market_question}
 - Outcome: ${p.outcome} | Entry: ${p.entry_price} | Now: ${p.current_price} | Gain: ${gainPct}%${stopLossWarning}
 - Size: $${p.size_usdc} | Hours to expiry: ${p.hours_to_expiry.toFixed(1)}h
@@ -267,12 +267,14 @@ Review each open position. For each position: check whether the exit trigger con
 
 ${positionLines}
 
-CLOSE RULES (call close_position for any that apply):
-1. Exit trigger condition has been met (e.g. specific price level hit, event occurred)
-2. Position is down >35% AND the fundamental thesis has materially weakened or been disproven
-3. Market has moved to extreme (>90% or <10%) suggesting resolution is near and against us
+CLOSE RULES — apply ALL that match, no thesis override allowed:
+1. Exit trigger condition has been met (e.g. specific price level hit, event occurred). Apply literally.
+2. Position is down >35% AND the fundamental thesis has materially weakened or been disproven (market structure changed, key assumption invalidated).
+3. Your side of the position is priced below 10% — HARD CLOSE. The market has strongly repriced against you. Do NOT override this with "thesis not disproven yet." At <10%, expected value of holding is near zero.
+4. Position is down >50% — HARD CLOSE regardless of thesis. Cut losses. No exceptions.
+5. You have 2+ open positions in the SAME market and both are losing — close the one with the higher percentage loss to reduce duplicate exposure.
 
-HOLD RULES: If thesis still valid and exit trigger NOT triggered, do nothing (no output needed).`;
+HOLD RULES: If NONE of the close rules apply and exit trigger NOT triggered, do nothing (no output needed).`;
         const msg = JSON.stringify({
             type: 'user',
             message: { role: 'user', content: prompt }

package/dist/index.js

@@ -43,6 +43,26 @@ const os = __importStar(require("os"));
 const fs_1 = require("fs");
 const CWD = process.env.POLLY_CWD || path.join(os.homedir(), 'polly-gamba');
 const EXPIRING_CWD = process.env.POLLY_EXPIRING_CWD || `${CWD}-expiring`;
+function ensureMainCwdSettings(cwd) {
+    const settingsPath = path.join(cwd, 'settings.json');
+    if (!(0, fs_1.existsSync)(settingsPath)) {
+        const mcpServerPath = path.join(cwd, 'dist', 'mcp-server.js');
+        const settings = {
+            mcpServers: {
+                'polly-paper': {
+                    command: 'node',
+                    args: [mcpServerPath],
+                    env: {
+                        REDIS_URL: process.env.REDIS_URL || 'redis://localhost:6379',
+                        POLLY_REDIS_PREFIX: 'polly',
+                    },
+                },
+            },
+        };
+        (0, fs_1.writeFileSync)(settingsPath, JSON.stringify(settings, null, 2));
+        console.log(`[main] created settings.json at ${settingsPath}`);
+    }
+}
 function ensureExpiringCwd(expiringCwd) {
     if (!(0, fs_1.existsSync)(expiringCwd)) {
         (0, fs_1.mkdirSync)(expiringCwd, { recursive: true });
@@ -69,6 +89,7 @@ function ensureExpiringCwd(expiringCwd) {
 async function main() {
     console.log('[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service');
     console.log(`[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: ${CWD}`);
+    ensureMainCwdSettings(CWD);
     ensureExpiringCwd(EXPIRING_CWD);
     console.log(`[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: ${EXPIRING_CWD}`);
     const anthropicTrader = new claude_trader_1.ClaudeTrader({ cwd: CWD, redisPrefix: 'polly', label: 'anthropic' });

package/dist/position-monitor.d.ts

@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ export declare class PositionMonitor {
     constructor(redisUrl: string, prefix: string, intervalMs?: number);
     start(): void;
     checkPositions(): Promise<void>;
+    private executeHardStop;
     private fetchCurrentPrice;
     stop(): void;
 }

package/dist/position-monitor.js

@@ -87,15 +87,58 @@ class PositionMonitor {
                 });
             }
         }
-        console.log(`[position-monitor] checked=${toCheck.length} review_candidates=${reviewCandidates.length} (moved>5% or <72h expiry)`);
-        // Pass to Claude for judgment-based exits with web search
-        if (reviewCandidates.length > 0 && this.trader) {
-            await this.trader.onPositionReview(reviewCandidates);
+        // Execute programmatic hard stops BEFORE sending to Claude
+        // These are deterministic rules — no judgment needed
+        const hardStopClosed = [];
+        for (const candidate of reviewCandidates) {
+            const isPriceBelowFloor = candidate.current_price <= 0.10;
+            const isLargeEnoughLoss = candidate.gain_pct <= -0.50;
+            if (isPriceBelowFloor || isLargeEnoughLoss) {
+                await this.executeHardStop(candidate, isPriceBelowFloor ? 'price_below_floor' : 'stop_loss_50pct');
+                hardStopClosed.push(candidate.market_id);
+            }
+        }
+        const remaining = reviewCandidates.filter(c => !hardStopClosed.includes(c.market_id));
+        console.log(`[position-monitor] checked=${toCheck.length} review_candidates=${reviewCandidates.length} hard_stops=${hardStopClosed.length} (moved>5% or <72h expiry)`);
+        // Pass remaining to Claude for judgment-based exits
+        if (remaining.length > 0 && this.trader) {
+            await this.trader.onPositionReview(remaining);
         }
-        else if (reviewCandidates.length > 0) {
+        else if (remaining.length > 0) {
             console.log('[position-monitor] no trader set — skipping Claude review');
         }
     }
+    async executeHardStop(candidate, reason) {
+        const prefix = this.prefix;
+        const raw = await this.redis.lrange(`${prefix}:positions`, 0, -1);
+        const positions = raw.map(r => { try {
+            return JSON.parse(r);
+        }
+        catch {
+            return null;
+        } }).filter(Boolean);
+        const match = positions.find((p) => p.market_id === candidate.market_id &&
+            String(p.outcome).toLowerCase() === String(candidate.outcome).toLowerCase() &&
+            p.ts === candidate.ts &&
+            p.status !== 'closed');
+        if (!match)
+            return;
+        const posKey = `${match.market_id}_${match.outcome}_${match.ts}`;
+        const closedIds = await this.redis.smembers(`${prefix}:closed_ids`);
+        if (closedIds.includes(posKey))
+            return;
+        const shares = match.size_usdc / match.price;
+        const pnl = shares * candidate.current_price - match.size_usdc;
+        const closed = { ...match, status: 'closed', exit_price: candidate.current_price, pnl, closed_at: Date.now(), reason: 'stop_loss' };
+        await this.redis.sadd(`${prefix}:closed_ids`, posKey);
+        await this.redis.lpush(`${prefix}:closed_positions`, JSON.stringify(closed));
+        await this.redis.ltrim(`${prefix}:closed_positions`, 0, 9999);
+        await this.redis.lpush(`${prefix}:log`, JSON.stringify({ type: 'position_closed', data: closed, ts: Date.now(), trigger: reason }));
+        await this.redis.ltrim(`${prefix}:log`, 0, 9999);
+        const pnlStr = pnl >= 0 ? `+$${pnl.toFixed(2)}` : `-$${Math.abs(pnl).toFixed(2)}`;
+        const gainStr = (candidate.gain_pct * 100).toFixed(1);
+        console.log(`[position-monitor] HARD STOP [${reason}] "${String(match.market_question).slice(0, 50)}" ${match.outcome} entry=${match.price} exit=${candidate.current_price} gain=${gainStr}% pnl=${pnlStr}`);
+    }
     async fetchCurrentPrice(marketId, outcome) {
         try {
             const res = await fetch(`https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/${marketId}`);

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "polly-gamba",
-  "version": "1.0.18",
+  "version": "1.0.20",
   "description": "Coinbase price signal → Claude brain → Polymarket CLOB execution",
   "main": "dist/index.js",
   "bin": {

package/service.log

@@ -71,3 +71,109 @@ npm warn deprecated prebuild-install@7.1.3: No longer maintained. Please contact
 /Users/feral/.npm/_npx/fe561c72834ff84d/node_modules/.bin/polly-gamba: line 1: use strict: command not found
 /Users/feral/.npm/_npx/fe561c72834ff84d/node_modules/.bin/polly-gamba: line 2: syntax error near unexpected token `('
 /Users/feral/.npm/_npx/fe561c72834ff84d/node_modules/.bin/polly-gamba: line 2: `var __createBinding = (this && this.__createBinding) || (Object.create ? (function(o, m, k, k2) {'
+/Users/feral/.npm/_npx/fe561c72834ff84d/node_modules/.bin/polly-gamba: line 1: use strict: command not found
+/Users/feral/.npm/_npx/fe561c72834ff84d/node_modules/.bin/polly-gamba: line 2: syntax error near unexpected token `('
+/Users/feral/.npm/_npx/fe561c72834ff84d/node_modules/.bin/polly-gamba: line 2: `var __createBinding = (this && this.__createBinding) || (Object.create ? (function(o, m, k, k2) {'
+npm warn deprecated prebuild-install@7.1.3: No longer maintained. Please contact the author of the relevant native addon; alternatives are available.
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=8 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=8 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=8 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=8 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=8 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=8 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=8 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=24 review_candidates=7 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle

package/settings.json

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+{
+  "mcpServers": {
+    "polly-paper": {
+      "command": "node",
+      "args": ["/Users/feral/polly-gamba/dist/mcp-server.js"],
+      "env": {
+        "REDIS_URL": "redis://localhost:6379",
+        "POLLY_REDIS_PREFIX": "polly"
+      }
+    }
+  }
+}

package/src/claude-trader.ts

@@ -304,7 +304,7 @@ For EVERY market above: if price differs from fair probability by >8%, place a t
 
     const positionLines = positions.map(p => {
       const gainPct = (p.gain_pct * 100).toFixed(1)
-      const stopLossWarning = p.gain_pct <= -0.35 ? ' ⚠️ HARD STOP ZONE (-35%)' : ''
+      const stopLossWarning = p.gain_pct <= -0.35 ? ' ⚠️ HARD STOP (-35%+ loss — Rule 2/4 MUST apply)' : ''
       return `### ${p.market_id} ${p.market_question}
 - Outcome: ${p.outcome} | Entry: ${p.entry_price} | Now: ${p.current_price} | Gain: ${gainPct}%${stopLossWarning}
 - Size: $${p.size_usdc} | Hours to expiry: ${p.hours_to_expiry.toFixed(1)}h
@@ -318,12 +318,14 @@ Review each open position. For each position: check whether the exit trigger con
 
 ${positionLines}
 
-CLOSE RULES (call close_position for any that apply):
-1. Exit trigger condition has been met (e.g. specific price level hit, event occurred)
-2. Position is down >35% AND the fundamental thesis has materially weakened or been disproven
-3. Market has moved to extreme (>90% or <10%) suggesting resolution is near and against us
+CLOSE RULES — apply ALL that match, no thesis override allowed:
+1. Exit trigger condition has been met (e.g. specific price level hit, event occurred). Apply literally.
+2. Position is down >35% AND the fundamental thesis has materially weakened or been disproven (market structure changed, key assumption invalidated).
+3. Your side of the position is priced below 10% — HARD CLOSE. The market has strongly repriced against you. Do NOT override this with "thesis not disproven yet." At <10%, expected value of holding is near zero.
+4. Position is down >50% — HARD CLOSE regardless of thesis. Cut losses. No exceptions.
+5. You have 2+ open positions in the SAME market and both are losing — close the one with the higher percentage loss to reduce duplicate exposure.
 
-HOLD RULES: If thesis still valid and exit trigger NOT triggered, do nothing (no output needed).`
+HOLD RULES: If NONE of the close rules apply and exit trigger NOT triggered, do nothing (no output needed).`
 
     const msg = JSON.stringify({
       type: 'user',

package/src/index.ts

@@ -9,6 +9,27 @@ import { mkdirSync, writeFileSync, existsSync } from 'fs'
 const CWD = process.env.POLLY_CWD || path.join(os.homedir(), 'polly-gamba')
 const EXPIRING_CWD = process.env.POLLY_EXPIRING_CWD || `${CWD}-expiring`
 
+function ensureMainCwdSettings(cwd: string): void {
+  const settingsPath = path.join(cwd, 'settings.json')
+  if (!existsSync(settingsPath)) {
+    const mcpServerPath = path.join(cwd, 'dist', 'mcp-server.js')
+    const settings = {
+      mcpServers: {
+        'polly-paper': {
+          command: 'node',
+          args: [mcpServerPath],
+          env: {
+            REDIS_URL: process.env.REDIS_URL || 'redis://localhost:6379',
+            POLLY_REDIS_PREFIX: 'polly',
+          },
+        },
+      },
+    }
+    writeFileSync(settingsPath, JSON.stringify(settings, null, 2))
+    console.log(`[main] created settings.json at ${settingsPath}`)
+  }
+}
+
 function ensureExpiringCwd(expiringCwd: string): void {
   if (!existsSync(expiringCwd)) {
     mkdirSync(expiringCwd, { recursive: true })
@@ -37,6 +58,7 @@ async function main(): Promise<void> {
   console.log('[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service')
   console.log(`[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: ${CWD}`)
 
+  ensureMainCwdSettings(CWD)
   ensureExpiringCwd(EXPIRING_CWD)
   console.log(`[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: ${EXPIRING_CWD}`)
 

package/src/position-monitor.ts

@@ -124,18 +124,72 @@ export class PositionMonitor {
       }
     }
 
+    // Execute programmatic hard stops BEFORE sending to Claude
+    // These are deterministic rules — no judgment needed
+    const hardStopClosed: string[] = []
+    for (const candidate of reviewCandidates) {
+      const isPriceBelowFloor = candidate.current_price <= 0.10
+      const isLargeEnoughLoss = candidate.gain_pct <= -0.50
+      if (isPriceBelowFloor || isLargeEnoughLoss) {
+        await this.executeHardStop(candidate, isPriceBelowFloor ? 'price_below_floor' : 'stop_loss_50pct')
+        hardStopClosed.push(candidate.market_id)
+      }
+    }
+
+    const remaining = reviewCandidates.filter(c => !hardStopClosed.includes(c.market_id))
+
     console.log(
-      `[position-monitor] checked=${toCheck.length} review_candidates=${reviewCandidates.length} (moved>5% or <72h expiry)`
+      `[position-monitor] checked=${toCheck.length} review_candidates=${reviewCandidates.length} hard_stops=${hardStopClosed.length} (moved>5% or <72h expiry)`
     )
 
-    // Pass to Claude for judgment-based exits with web search
-    if (reviewCandidates.length > 0 && this.trader) {
-      await this.trader.onPositionReview(reviewCandidates)
-    } else if (reviewCandidates.length > 0) {
+    // Pass remaining to Claude for judgment-based exits
+    if (remaining.length > 0 && this.trader) {
+      await this.trader.onPositionReview(remaining)
+    } else if (remaining.length > 0) {
       console.log('[position-monitor] no trader set — skipping Claude review')
     }
   }
 
+  private async executeHardStop(candidate: {
+    market_id: string
+    market_question: string
+    outcome: string
+    entry_price: number
+    current_price: number
+    gain_pct: number
+    size_usdc: number
+    ts: number
+  }, reason: string): Promise<void> {
+    const prefix = this.prefix
+    const raw = await this.redis.lrange(`${prefix}:positions`, 0, -1)
+    const positions = raw.map(r => { try { return JSON.parse(r) } catch { return null } }).filter(Boolean)
+    const match = positions.find((p: any) =>
+      p.market_id === candidate.market_id &&
+      String(p.outcome).toLowerCase() === String(candidate.outcome).toLowerCase() &&
+      p.ts === candidate.ts &&
+      p.status !== 'closed'
+    )
+    if (!match) return
+
+    const posKey = `${match.market_id}_${match.outcome}_${match.ts}`
+    const closedIds = await this.redis.smembers(`${prefix}:closed_ids`)
+    if (closedIds.includes(posKey)) return
+
+    const shares = match.size_usdc / match.price
+    const pnl = shares * candidate.current_price - match.size_usdc
+    const closed = { ...match, status: 'closed', exit_price: candidate.current_price, pnl, closed_at: Date.now(), reason: 'stop_loss' }
+
+    await this.redis.sadd(`${prefix}:closed_ids`, posKey)
+    await this.redis.lpush(`${prefix}:closed_positions`, JSON.stringify(closed))
+    await this.redis.ltrim(`${prefix}:closed_positions`, 0, 9999)
+    await this.redis.lpush(`${prefix}:log`, JSON.stringify({ type: 'position_closed', data: closed, ts: Date.now(), trigger: reason }))
+    await this.redis.ltrim(`${prefix}:log`, 0, 9999)
+
+    const pnlStr = pnl >= 0 ? `+$${pnl.toFixed(2)}` : `-$${Math.abs(pnl).toFixed(2)}`
+    const gainStr = (candidate.gain_pct * 100).toFixed(1)
+    console.log(`[position-monitor] HARD STOP [${reason}] "${String(match.market_question).slice(0, 50)}" ${match.outcome} entry=${match.price} exit=${candidate.current_price} gain=${gainStr}% pnl=${pnlStr}`)
+  }
+
   private async fetchCurrentPrice(marketId: string, outcome: string): Promise<MarketPrice | null> {
     try {
       const res = await fetch(`https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/${marketId}`)