polly-gamba 1.0.18 → 1.0.19

package/dist/claude-trader.js

@@ -254,7 +254,7 @@ For EVERY market above: if price differs from fair probability by >8%, place a t
         await this.redis.ltrim(`${prefix}:reviews`, 0, 9999);
         const positionLines = positions.map(p => {
             const gainPct = (p.gain_pct * 100).toFixed(1);
-            const stopLossWarning = p.gain_pct <= -0.35 ? ' ⚠️ HARD STOP ZONE (-35%)' : '';
+            const stopLossWarning = p.gain_pct <= -0.35 ? ' ⚠️ HARD STOP (-35%+ loss — Rule 2/4 MUST apply)' : '';
             return `### ${p.market_id} ${p.market_question}
 - Outcome: ${p.outcome} | Entry: ${p.entry_price} | Now: ${p.current_price} | Gain: ${gainPct}%${stopLossWarning}
 - Size: $${p.size_usdc} | Hours to expiry: ${p.hours_to_expiry.toFixed(1)}h
@@ -267,12 +267,14 @@ Review each open position. For each position: check whether the exit trigger con
 
 ${positionLines}
 
-CLOSE RULES (call close_position for any that apply):
-1. Exit trigger condition has been met (e.g. specific price level hit, event occurred)
-2. Position is down >35% AND the fundamental thesis has materially weakened or been disproven
-3. Market has moved to extreme (>90% or <10%) suggesting resolution is near and against us
+CLOSE RULES — apply ALL that match, no thesis override allowed:
+1. Exit trigger condition has been met (e.g. specific price level hit, event occurred). Apply literally.
+2. Position is down >35% AND the fundamental thesis has materially weakened or been disproven (market structure changed, key assumption invalidated).
+3. Your side of the position is priced below 10% — HARD CLOSE. The market has strongly repriced against you. Do NOT override this with "thesis not disproven yet." At <10%, expected value of holding is near zero.
+4. Position is down >50% — HARD CLOSE regardless of thesis. Cut losses. No exceptions.
+5. You have 2+ open positions in the SAME market and both are losing — close the one with the higher percentage loss to reduce duplicate exposure.
 
-HOLD RULES: If thesis still valid and exit trigger NOT triggered, do nothing (no output needed).`;
+HOLD RULES: If NONE of the close rules apply and exit trigger NOT triggered, do nothing (no output needed).`;
         const msg = JSON.stringify({
             type: 'user',
             message: { role: 'user', content: prompt }

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "polly-gamba",
-  "version": "1.0.18",
+  "version": "1.0.19",
   "description": "Coinbase price signal → Claude brain → Polymarket CLOB execution",
   "main": "dist/index.js",
   "bin": {

package/service.log

@@ -71,3 +71,54 @@ npm warn deprecated prebuild-install@7.1.3: No longer maintained. Please contact
 /Users/feral/.npm/_npx/fe561c72834ff84d/node_modules/.bin/polly-gamba: line 1: use strict: command not found
 /Users/feral/.npm/_npx/fe561c72834ff84d/node_modules/.bin/polly-gamba: line 2: syntax error near unexpected token `('
 /Users/feral/.npm/_npx/fe561c72834ff84d/node_modules/.bin/polly-gamba: line 2: `var __createBinding = (this && this.__createBinding) || (Object.create ? (function(o, m, k, k2) {'
+/Users/feral/.npm/_npx/fe561c72834ff84d/node_modules/.bin/polly-gamba: line 1: use strict: command not found
+/Users/feral/.npm/_npx/fe561c72834ff84d/node_modules/.bin/polly-gamba: line 2: syntax error near unexpected token `('
+/Users/feral/.npm/_npx/fe561c72834ff84d/node_modules/.bin/polly-gamba: line 2: `var __createBinding = (this && this.__createBinding) || (Object.create ? (function(o, m, k, k2) {'
+npm warn deprecated prebuild-install@7.1.3: No longer maintained. Please contact the author of the relevant native addon; alternatives are available.
+[polly-gamba] Starting paper trading service
+[polly-gamba] Claude cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba
+[polly-gamba] Expiring trader cwd: /Users/feral/polly-gamba-expiring
+[coinbase-ws] Connecting to wss://ws-feed.exchange.coinbase.com
+[polly-gamba] Listening for BTC/ETH price signals (threshold: 0.5% in 60s)...
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[coinbase-ws] Connected
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[claude-trader:anthropic] ready
+[claude-trader:ollama] ready
+[claude-trader:expiring] ready
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=8 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=8 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=7 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[scan] fetching high-quality markets (vol24h>$50k, liq>$50k, price 0.10-0.90)
+[gamma] Fetching active markets from https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=500
+[position-monitor] checked=25 review_candidates=8 (moved>5% or <72h expiry)
+[gamma] Loaded 496 markets (filtered from 500)
+[scan] 16 high-quality markets for autonomous review
+[expiring] fetching expiring markets (closing within 72h, vol24h>$10k, liq>$10k, price 0.05-0.95)
+[expiring] 0 expiring markets for review
+[expiring] no expiring markets found this cycle

package/src/claude-trader.ts

@@ -304,7 +304,7 @@ For EVERY market above: if price differs from fair probability by >8%, place a t
 
     const positionLines = positions.map(p => {
       const gainPct = (p.gain_pct * 100).toFixed(1)
-      const stopLossWarning = p.gain_pct <= -0.35 ? ' ⚠️ HARD STOP ZONE (-35%)' : ''
+      const stopLossWarning = p.gain_pct <= -0.35 ? ' ⚠️ HARD STOP (-35%+ loss — Rule 2/4 MUST apply)' : ''
       return `### ${p.market_id} ${p.market_question}
 - Outcome: ${p.outcome} | Entry: ${p.entry_price} | Now: ${p.current_price} | Gain: ${gainPct}%${stopLossWarning}
 - Size: $${p.size_usdc} | Hours to expiry: ${p.hours_to_expiry.toFixed(1)}h
@@ -318,12 +318,14 @@ Review each open position. For each position: check whether the exit trigger con
 
 ${positionLines}
 
-CLOSE RULES (call close_position for any that apply):
-1. Exit trigger condition has been met (e.g. specific price level hit, event occurred)
-2. Position is down >35% AND the fundamental thesis has materially weakened or been disproven
-3. Market has moved to extreme (>90% or <10%) suggesting resolution is near and against us
+CLOSE RULES — apply ALL that match, no thesis override allowed:
+1. Exit trigger condition has been met (e.g. specific price level hit, event occurred). Apply literally.
+2. Position is down >35% AND the fundamental thesis has materially weakened or been disproven (market structure changed, key assumption invalidated).
+3. Your side of the position is priced below 10% — HARD CLOSE. The market has strongly repriced against you. Do NOT override this with "thesis not disproven yet." At <10%, expected value of holding is near zero.
+4. Position is down >50% — HARD CLOSE regardless of thesis. Cut losses. No exceptions.
+5. You have 2+ open positions in the SAME market and both are losing — close the one with the higher percentage loss to reduce duplicate exposure.
 
-HOLD RULES: If thesis still valid and exit trigger NOT triggered, do nothing (no output needed).`
+HOLD RULES: If NONE of the close rules apply and exit trigger NOT triggered, do nothing (no output needed).`
 
     const msg = JSON.stringify({
       type: 'user',