pog-mcp 0.9.9 → 0.9.10

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "pog-mcp",
-  "version": "0.9.9",
+  "version": "0.9.10",
   "type": "module",
   "description": "MCP server that lets an AI agent play Proof of Goal — wallet, sign-in, squad building, and matches as typed tools.",
   "license": "MIT",

package/skill/reference/measurements.md

@@ -2282,8 +2282,9 @@ gives the same answer, which is a fact only the sweep can establish.
 
 The plan's "start at 0.5, never exceed 1.0" is therefore about **2.5× the safe value**.
 
-**0.2 is provisional.** The role×condition interaction is unmeasured and can move it either
-way — see below — so do not treat it as a fixed value.
+**0.2 was provisional when this run was published.** The role×condition interaction was then
+unmeasured and could move it either way. The 2026-09-06 follow-up below closes that gate for the
+pre-registered #728 role ladder and makes 0.2 final within that contract.
 
 ### The document already had this in its own table
 
@@ -2306,7 +2307,7 @@ five grid points give 17.5–18.0 and 26.6–27.4 respectively. (An earlier revi
 Growth turned out not to be an amplifier at all. That was one of the three axes §3-2 asked
 for, and the answer is negative.
 
-### What this does not cover
+### What this run did not cover at publication
 
 Role concentration — the third axis §3-2 named — is not measured here. It requires patching
 the engine to carry per-player, per-scene weight sheets (`appr-role.mts` does this), which
@@ -2320,6 +2321,220 @@ judgments AWAY from thresholds and reduce sensitivity. The axis can move 0.3 in
 direction, and it has to be measured before the value is adopted — 0.3 is what two axes
 give, not the answer for three.
 
+### Role×condition and cup-depletion follow-up — the missing gates close (2026-09-06)
+
+`role-cond.mts` reused the six legal §3-15 squads over 36 ordered matchups and both engine modes.
+Scanning `computeBuff` directly under the product invariant `0≤tenure≤career`, through potential
+1 and through the `career=700` boundary after which every buff is zero, gives the actually
+reachable dense integer support **0..4**. The first maximum-4 witness is tenure/career **67/67**,
+and lower potential cannot escape that envelope. The growth
+axis uses four uniform endpoint combinations, five rotated heterogeneous vectors, and one
+reachable extreme with **the focal role slot at 4 and all other 21 players at 0**. Every slot of
+both XIs visits every value 0..4 across the rotated states; the final state directly covers the
+previously omitted input where the concentrated carrier has grown more than every teammate and
+opponent. This is a pre-fixed rotated/role-extreme sample, not an exhaustive enumeration of the
+per-player `5^22` combinations, and the guarantee below is limited to those ten growth states.
+From inputs alone, offense chose each focal
+squad's largest FW (`total → pass → shoot → slot`) as
+#728's pre-registered carrier. Defense swept **all ten outfield slots** rather than selecting one
+DF; the keeper stays out consistently with `appr-role.mts`'s contract that keeper A0 is outside
+roles. The engine was patched with #728's same per-player, per-scene `appr`/`apprDef` sheets;
+the **whole focal XI moved from condition 5.0 to 4.8** while keeping the role, and the opponent
+kept the shipped role table.
+
+Home/away and regulation/knockout were first joined within each seed cluster, with the latter
+mixed at canonical `KO_EXPOSURE=8.14%`. Six offensive and 60 defensive shards (six squads ×
+ten slots), **66 shards** in total, all paid against the unsharded simultaneous family
+**67,320 = 35,640 effects + 31,680 interactions versus ×1**. There are
+**3,960 = (6 offense + 60 defense) × 6 opponents × 10 growth states** structural cells. The
+final run used the independent seed column `role-cond-r37-final` and pre-fixed looks
+`50,000→100,000→200,000`. Each structural cell stopped at the first look where all nine effect
+intervals closed below 5pp. Both endpoints and all three looks were Bonferroni-priced at endpoint
+`δ=1.238e-7 = .05/(2×67,320×3)`, so the interaction intervals remain valid after optional
+stopping. **3,959 cells stopped at 50,000, one at 100,000 and none reached 200,000**, for
+**14,259,600,000 measured matches**. Empirical-Bernstein support widths are 400pp for effects and
+800pp for interactions. Each shard's 80 stock↔patch whole results and 80 ×1 role results were
+byte-identical. At the maximum pre-registered rung ×1024, the focal player's minimum nominal
+share among its non-zero draws is **98.71–98.91%** on offense and **94.03–99.15%** on defense;
+×1024 is therefore not called a uniform defensive “practical asymptote.”
+
+These are the cells with the largest absolute simultaneous upper bound among the 360 offensive
+and 3,600 defensive cells at every multiplier. All 360/360 offensive and 3,600/3,600 defensive
+cells at every row are established below 5pp.
+
+| role multiplier | offensive worst effect | offensive absolute upper | defensive worst effect | defensive absolute upper |
+| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| 0 | +3.62 ±0.98pp | 4.60pp | +3.80 ±0.99pp | 4.79pp |
+| 0.25 | +3.62 ±0.98pp | 4.60pp | +3.85 ±0.99pp | 4.84pp |
+| 0.5 | +3.69 ±1.00pp | 4.69pp | +3.85 ±0.99pp | 4.84pp |
+| 1 | +3.65 ±1.00pp | 4.65pp | +3.86 ±0.99pp | 4.85pp |
+| 2 | +3.68 ±0.99pp | 4.67pp | +3.80 ±0.99pp | 4.79pp |
+| 4 | +3.75 ±0.98pp | 4.73pp | +3.81 ±0.99pp | 4.80pp |
+| 8 | +3.70 ±0.99pp | 4.69pp | +3.81 ±0.99pp | 4.80pp |
+| 32 | +3.84 ±0.99pp | 4.83pp | +3.89 ±1.01pp | 4.90pp |
+| **1024** | **+3.97 ±1.01pp** | **4.98pp** | **+3.95 ±1.01pp** | **4.96pp** |
+
+The global ×1024 witnesses are `352/stars/flat` slot 9 versus `433/even/flat`, growth
+`rotated-1`, `n=50,000` on offense, and `442/stars/atk` slot 1 versus `433/even/flat`, growth
+`rotated-4`, `n=50,000` on defense. Against ×1, offense has **5 established increases / 8 established
+decreases / 2,867 undecided interactions** (2,880 total), while defense has
+**42 / 20 / 28,738** (28,800 total). The largest positive upper endpoint is
+**+1.82 ±1.49pp = 3.31pp** on offense and **+2.23 ±1.41pp = 3.64pp** on defense. The most
+negative lower endpoint is **−1.62 ±1.47pp → −3.09pp** and **−1.55 ±1.47pp → −3.02pp**,
+respectively. Every effect and interaction interval endpoint over the whole ladder is inside
+5pp. **The 0.2 band ceiling is final for this role contract.**
+
+The scope is the focal side's **pre-registered offensive carrier, every outfield defensive
+slot, the whole-XI 0.2 band and the ten pre-fixed growth states**. The exhaustive `5^22`
+growth-vector product, opponent role sheets, other offensive slots, a keeper defensive role
+and continuous multipliers outside the ladder are not covered. Since roles do
+not exist in the product yet, #735 must adopt this measured ladder or a subset; expanding that
+space requires a new gate.
+
+The 2026-08-29 qualifier premise is also **withdrawn**. The generic
+`tournament-runner.ts` `runTournament()` does run qualifiers when given more than 48 teams, but
+that file explicitly says production cups do not use it. The production daemon combines ranked
+entrants with fill-bots into exactly 48 teams; registration replay and the legacy path also slice
+to 48 before building the group schedule. A champion therefore plays at most three group plus
+five knockout matches. There is no shipped eleven-match path and no three-match qualifier-luck
+gap to calibrate.
+
+The corrected product criteria cover the shipped eight-match path. In the verified production
+entry population plus explicit persistent-new, daily-fill-bot and observed-extreme stresses,
+every pre-registered offensive carrier and every non-keeper defensive role must finish with
+`cond8>4.8`; independently of entry state, that cup itself must consume at most 0.2 condition.
+Each cell passes only when the simultaneous upper bound on each violation probability is below
+1%. The first is an empirical population gate, not a universal floor for arbitrary future
+history: F-2 has neither a load cap nor a cup-entry reset, and its curve asymptote is below 4.8.
+
+#### Withdrawn scale-only result — 0.375 is historical, not the product value
+
+This result remains as an audit trail. It applied each scale to prior cup history and the new
+eight-match path, but kept the neutral point, `L₀`, and safe amplitude from result 7c, whose
+lifetime integration treated cup events at ×1. Since the fold changes the whole EWMA history,
+that was not a self-consistent product combination. Its conditional 0.375 pass below is superseded
+by the re-integrated two-dimensional boundary that follows.
+
+`engagement-load.mts` integrated the canonical production export with SHA-256
+`1c7335ba9fa11388363de57628207ecc4820dc9bb02285066bda849adf571b6f` at τ=24h on the
+claim clock under predicate D. Taking each human team's first pre-match vector in each cup after
+the 2τ warm-up yields **108 profiles across nine cups**. The hand-off file has SHA-256
+`dfd3032c9bab22c42c0616e708705e2f9a187fde719766af37cc68cc6c60515e`, and a fresh export
+from the current code was byte-identical. It preserves ladder and raw-cup components separately:
+candidate `s` enters at **`L=ladderL+s·cupRawL`**, so already-accumulated cup history is scaled too
+rather than leaving old cups at ×1 while scaling only the new cup. At `s=1`, entry-slot L has
+median **4.959667**, p95 **10.902379**, and maximum **33.888645**.
+
+Form was not deployed in that production window. The historical `cupRawL` column is therefore the
+growth-zero workload on the committed fixture ledger while condition was fixed at 5, not a
+closed-loop equilibrium in which an earlier candidate scale had already changed condition and then
+changed later engagement draws. Scaling that fixed historical column is exact for its event counts;
+only the new eight-match path below directly replays condition-to-engagement feedback. This is
+another reason the entry result is a fixed-basket empirical gate rather than a universal future-state
+claim.
+
+`cup-role-load.mts` crosses persistent-new load zero, the daily fill-bot neutral load, the observed
+population, a role-slot maximum and a whole-XI condition-deficit maximum in six entry scenarios.
+It measures all six offensive carriers and all 60 non-keeper defensive slots at ×1024. Six
+opponent squads × home/away × six entry scenarios produce **4,752 cells per scale**, each with
+3,000 independent paths through the shipped three group plus five knockout matches. Every match
+adds both XIs' growth-zero F-1 predicate-D raw engagements, with no inter-round recovery. The
+repeated synthetic opponent keeps the shipped role sheet while carrying its own accumulated load.
+
+The **16-point** grid is
+`{1, .5, .45, .4, .375, .35, .325, .3, .275, .25, .225, .2, .125, .1, .075, .05}`. Measuring
+the six largest candidates established 0.375 as passing and rejected every larger value, so the
+ten smaller points are irrelevant to selecting the largest pass. Every shard still paid against
+the full family **152,064 = 16 scales × 4,752 cells × 2 criteria**, using one-sided
+Bernoulli-KL/Chernoff `α=3.288089e-7`. That is **114,048,000 measured matches per scale** and
+**684,288,000 measured matches** total. Each shard also passed 80 stock↔patch involvement-result
+and 880 ×1-role byte-identity controls. The independent seed column is `cup-role-r36-final`.
+
+The two explicit product criteria require each cell's simultaneous upper bound on (1)
+`cond8≤4.8` and (2) `initialCond−cond8>0.2` to be **below 1%**. The first asks for an absolute
+floor in the observed entry basket; the second isolates this cup's band consumption from entry
+state. A sampled minimum or maximum may cross its threshold while the scale passes—the gate is on
+violation probability, not deterministic zero violations.
+
+| consumption scale | worst floor violations (simultaneous upper) | worst cup-drop violations (simultaneous upper) | min initial/cond8 | max drop | raw8 mean/max | verdict |
+| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
+| 1.000 | 3,000/3,000 (100.00%) | 2,996/3,000 (100.00%) | 4.897/4.692 | 0.330 | 70.3/148 | FAIL |
+| 0.500 | 405/3,000 (17.15%) | 139/3,000 (7.04%) | 4.911/4.770 | 0.238 | 70.2/148 | FAIL |
+| 0.450 | 67/3,000 (4.04%) | 21/3,000 (1.88%) | 4.912/4.780 | 0.224 | 70.2/148 | FAIL |
+| **0.400** | **6/3,000 (1.02%)** | 2/3,000 (0.72%) | 4.914/4.791 | 0.209 | 70.2/148 | **FAIL** |
+| **0.375** | **1/3,000 (0.63%)** | **1/3,000 (0.63%)** | **4.915/4.797** | **0.201** | **70.2/148** | **PASS** |
+| 0.350 | 0/3,000 (0.50%) | 0/3,000 (0.50%) | 4.915/4.803 | 0.192 | 70.2/148 | PASS |
+
+At 0.375, the floor witness is defensive slot 6, `433/stars/atk` versus `433/even/flat`,
+home, `observed-slot-max/team-max`; the cup-drop witness is defensive slot 4,
+`433/even/flat` versus `442/even/def`, away, `persistent-new/new`.
+
+That run therefore selected **0.375 per raw F-1 predicate-D engagement conditional on the old
+curve**. It is not the current product decision; the self-consistent rerun below replaces it.
+
+Inter-match time is zero in this declared zero-gap product stress distribution. It includes actual
+entry history and observed extremes, but remains an empirical guarantee for this fixed nine-cup
+basket. Without a load cap or cup-entry reset, it cannot guarantee an absolute floor for every
+possible future history—the curve's asymptote itself is below 4.8. Nor does it mathematically
+dominate changing real-bracket opponents or opponent role sheets; adding those spaces to the
+product contract requires re-gating.
+
+#### Final re-integrated boundary — `s=0.1375`, `b=0.4914` (2026-09-06)
+
+To remove that feedback error, the canonical lifetime timeline was re-integrated from scratch
+with structural cup events at `s=0.1375` and ladder events at 1. At τ=24h the active-appearance
+median is **1.146304**, p95 is **14.756304**, and the 4× curvature scale is therefore
+**`L₀=59.025216`**. The all-τ safe-amplitude search and an independent selected-curve
+confirmation pass **`b=0.4914`**. The neutral offset is derived, not copied from rounded prose:
+**`a=b·L_neutral/(L_neutral+L₀)=0.009361468442213193`**. Zero load maps to
+5.00936146844 and the asymptote to 4.51796146844. These are the canonical result-7d and F-2-v2
+constants.
+
+The same 108 profiles across nine cups keep ladder and raw-cup components separate, and each
+candidate enters as `L=ladderL+s·cupRawL`. At the selected scale, the 1,188 entry slots have
+minimum 0, median **0.698231**, p95 **3.050740**, maximum **26.617183**, and mean
+**1.264655**. The remaining cup contract is unchanged: six offensive carriers plus 60 outfield
+defensive slots, six opponents, home/away and six entry scenarios make 4,752 cells per scale;
+each cell runs 3,000 independent eight-match paths and accumulates both XIs' growth-zero
+predicate-D raw engagements.
+
+The pre-fixed scale grid is
+`{1, .5, .4, .3, .25, .2, .175, .15, .1375, .125, .1125, .1, .0875, .075, .0625, .05}`.
+Every point above 0.1375, the selected point, and the next point 0.125 were actually run—no
+monotonicity inference substitutes for a shard. The amplitude family was also pre-fixed at
+`{0.4914, 0.5026}`, and both were run at the scale boundary. The global family is
+**304,128 = 2 amplitudes × 16 scales × 4,752 cells × 2 criteria**, with one-sided
+Bernoulli-KL/Chernoff `α=1.644045e-7`. Each shard measures 114,048,000 matches; ten scale shards
+plus one amplitude-neighbour shard total **1,254,528,000 matches**. Every shard's 80
+stock↔patch involvement and 880 ×1-role results were byte-identical. The independent seed column
+is `cup-role-r44-final`.
+
+| amplitude `b` | cup `s` | worst floor violations (simultaneous upper) | worst cup-drop violations (simultaneous upper) | min initial/cond8 | max drop | raw8 mean/max | verdict |
+| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
+| 0.4914 | 1.000 | 3,000/3,000 (100.00%) | 3,000/3,000 (100.00%) | 4.830/4.642 | 0.346 | 70.3/149 | FAIL |
+| 0.4914 | 0.500 | 3,000/3,000 (100.00%) | 1,969/3,000 (70.36%) | 4.845/4.702 | 0.267 | 70.3/149 | FAIL |
+| 0.4914 | 0.400 | 3,000/3,000 (100.00%) | 299/3,000 (13.30%) | 4.848/4.721 | 0.239 | 70.3/149 | FAIL |
+| 0.4914 | 0.300 | 2,978/3,000 (99.83%) | 1/3,000 (0.65%) | 4.851/4.744 | 0.205 | 70.3/149 | FAIL |
+| 0.4914 | 0.250 | 2,665/3,000 (91.78%) | 0/3,000 (0.52%) | 4.853/4.758 | 0.184 | 70.3/149 | FAIL |
+| 0.4914 | 0.200 | 921/3,000 (35.53%) | 0/3,000 (0.52%) | 4.855/4.773 | 0.159 | 70.3/149 | FAIL |
+| 0.4914 | 0.175 | 176/3,000 (8.57%) | 0/3,000 (0.52%) | 4.855/4.782 | 0.145 | 70.2/149 | FAIL |
+| 0.4914 | **0.150** | **9/3,000 (1.24%)** | 0/3,000 (0.52%) | 4.856/4.791 | 0.130 | 70.2/149 | **FAIL** |
+| **0.4914** | **0.1375** | **1/3,000 (0.65%)** | **0/3,000 (0.52%)** | **4.857/4.796** | **0.122** | **70.2/149** | **PASS** |
+| 0.4914 | 0.125 | 0/3,000 (0.52%) | 0/3,000 (0.52%) | 4.857/4.800 | 0.113 | 70.2/149 | PASS |
+| **0.5026** | **0.1375** | **9/3,000 (1.24%)** | 0/3,000 (0.52%) | 4.853/4.791 | 0.125 | 70.2/149 | **FAIL** |
+
+At the selected point, the floor witness is defensive slot 6, `433/stars/atk` versus
+`442/stars/atk`, home, `observed-slot-max/team-max`; every cell has zero cup-drop violations.
+Thus **`s=0.1375`, `b=0.4914` is a passing boundary point in the pre-fixed two-dimensional
+grid while its upper and right neighbours fail**. It is not claimed as a continuous or global
+optimum. Points below 0.125 were unnecessary to select the largest passing grid point and were
+not run; no pass is inferred for them by monotonicity.
+
+F-1 continues to retain integer raw D counters. F-2 v2 alone reads source-match structural
+identity (`tournament_id IS NOT NULL`) and applies 0.1375 to cups and 1 to ladder events, through
+one helper shared by current accumulation and historical rebuild. The fixed population, zero-gap,
+opponent-role, and changing-bracket limitations are the same as in the historical run above.
+
 ## What a same-sum vector transfer is worth (`attr-vs-cond.mts`)
 
 F-6 lets a registration submission redistribute each player's four attributes **within
@@ -2553,15 +2768,17 @@ product choice. Predicate C versus D was also open at publication and F-1 subseq
 **D** on 2026-09-04. The C-conditioned tables and correction trail below remain historical evidence;
 they are not relabelled as D.
 
-**Product decision, 2026-09-06 — F-2 reference curve.** Re-integrating the same owner-only export
-and stored seed column under D, then independently validating only the selected 4× curve, chooses
-**`τ=24h`**, active-appearance neutral load **`L_neutral=8.076776`**,
-**`L₀=90.717176`** (4× D p95 `22.679294`), **`b=0.5399`**, and therefore
-**`a=b·L_neutral/(L_neutral+L₀)=0.044139`**. The versioned equation is
-`cond=5+a−bL/(L+L₀)`. This does not activate fatigue: F-2 first lands behind a default-OFF flag,
-and G-3 can flip only after the maximum legal role×condition interaction, 8–11-match cup depletion,
-the launch-amplitude prize/cost ordering, H ceiling, and I-c CAP clear against this same curve.
-The D product rerun is recorded below; the older C run remains the audit trail.
+**Product decision, 2026-09-06 — F-2 v2 reference curve.** Re-integrating the same owner-only
+export and stored seed column under D, with every structural cup event folded at 0.1375 and every
+ladder event at 1 throughout the lifetime timeline, chooses **`τ=24h`**, active-appearance neutral
+load **`L_neutral=1.146304`**, **`L₀=59.025216`** (4× D p95 `14.756304`),
+**`b=0.4914`**, and therefore
+**`a=b·L_neutral/(L_neutral+L₀)=0.009361468442213193`**. The versioned equation is
+`cond=5+a−bL/(L+L₀)`. This does not activate fatigue: F-2 remains behind a default-OFF flag.
+The §3-15 follow-up closes #728-ladder role×condition and the shipped eight-match cup at the
+pre-fixed two-dimensional boundary `s=0.1375, b=0.4914`. G-3 can flip only after the
+launch-amplitude focused-role prize/cost ordering, H ceiling, and I-c CAP clear against this same
+curve. Result 7d records the current rerun; the older C run and cup×1 result 7c remain audit trails.
 
 ### F-1 implementation status — predicate D is now durable
 
@@ -3424,7 +3641,11 @@ rule-of-three bound was bolted on for it. Under empirical Bernstein the range te
 `3R ln(3/δ)/n` survives at SD = 0, so the interval never collapses in the first place: no
 guard, no special case, and one fewer argument resting on its own iid assumption.
 
-### Post-F-1 product rerun — certify only the selected D · 4× curve
+### Withdrawn result 7c — the D · 4× · cup×1 curve
+
+> **This is not the current product curve.** It correctly used D after F-1, but did not feed the
+> subsequently selected cup fold back through lifetime integration. The figures and then-current
+> rationale remain as an audit trail; self-consistent result 7d supersedes them.
 
 Results 6 through the safe-amplitude section above preserve the historical predicate-C run and
 its joint 1×/2×/4× candidate family. The product values were not obtained by scaling that table.
@@ -3464,13 +3685,67 @@ The product choices are:
   all 18 actual cells.
 - **Prize versus cost remains unresolved.** At the safe amplitude's maximum recoverable deficit
   0.173, the prize is 0.19pp [−0.07, 0.45], the selected cheapest one-point replacement costs
-  0.16pp, and paired cost−prize is −0.03pp [−0.50, 0.43]. Together with the unmeasured legal
-  role×condition and cup extremes, that keeps F-2 default OFF until the follow-up gates and G-3.
+  0.16pp, and paired cost−prize is −0.03pp [−0.50, 0.43]. The role×condition and cup extremes
+  now clear in the §3-15 follow-up, but this ordering was not measured directly on the practical-
+  asymptote carrier. That focused prize/cost gate, H, CAP, the cup fold and G-3 keep F-2 OFF.
 
 The canonical constants are therefore `τ=24h` and
 `cond = 5 + 0.044139 − 0.5399·L/(L + 90.717176)`. Implementation derives `a` from the other
 three constants so documentation rounding cannot move the exact neutral point.
 
+### Result 7d — structural-cup-folded D · 4× · v2 product curve (current decision)
+
+Applying 0.375 only after result 7c left prior cup history at ×1 inside the curve while giving
+new cups a different unit. Result 7d removes that inconsistency by rebuilding the canonical
+lifetime timeline from scratch with every structural cup event at 0.1375 and every ladder event
+at 1. It uses the same export SHA-256
+`1c7335ba9fa11388363de57628207ecc4820dc9bb02285066bda849adf571b6f`, predicate D,
+only the 4× curve, and all-τ seed column `c2-cupfold-r45-final`. The joint all-τ family is
+**612**, the sum of each τ's actual-cell upper bound times six opponents.
+
+| τ(h) | D `L` median | D `L` p95 | 0.2-derived `b` (4×) | one match (pp)\* | cells over | searched safe-`b` interval | worst upper at low end | established-over `b` |
+| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| 6 | 0.38 | 4.01 | 8.695 | 1.6454 | **16/17** | 0.4076–0.4161 | 3.68pp | 4.3474 |
+| 12 | 0.57 | 7.54 | 10.753 | 1.1750 | **10/15** | 0.4725–0.4830 | 3.79pp | 5.3765 |
+| **24** | **1.15** | **14.76** | **10.498** | **0.6147** | **3/18** | 0.4716–0.4819 | 3.64pp | 5.2492 |
+| 48 | 2.34 | 26.06 | 9.102 | 0.3087 | **4/18** | 0.5156–0.5244 | 3.67pp | 4.5511 |
+
+\* “One match” is the secant at each row's 0.2-derived amplitude with raw p95 increment 4, not
+the cost at the selected product amplitude. The interval's left endpoint is the largest grid
+point established below; its right endpoint is merely the smallest point that this run did not
+establish below. It is neither a failure nor an upper threshold. Only the final column, where a
+lower bound exceeds 5pp, establishes that the threshold lies below a candidate.
+
+τ is still a product choice, not an estimate fitted to observed fatigue. The 24h derived curve
+has the fewest over-gate cells in this price table, while 48h halves the one-match secant again,
+0.6147→0.3087pp. The product therefore retains **τ=24h** as its daily-rotation/fairness
+compromise. Its unrounded active-appearance median is **1.146304**, p95 is **14.756304**, and
+observed maximum is **32.07**, giving **`L₀=59.025216`** at 4×.
+
+The joint all-τ search prices the four-row table. Its right endpoint is not an upper bound and
+does not reject `b=0.4914`. After the cup-boundary diagnostic, that exact candidate was fixed
+without looking at the final result and checked on independent seed column
+`c2-cupfold-r42-product` under the selected τ24 curve's **family 156**: **18/18 cells were
+established below**, with worst upper **3.48pp** and maximum deficit **0.173**. The independent
+§3-15 `cup-role-r44-final` two-dimensional family then rejects the right neighbour `b=0.5026`
+at `s=0.1375`. Thus 0.4914 is a passing pre-fixed product-grid point, not a continuous threshold
+estimate.
+
+The current constants are:
+
+- **`τ=24h`, `L_neutral=1.146304`, `L₀=59.025216`, `b=0.4914`.**
+- **`a=b·L_neutral/(L_neutral+L₀)=0.009361468442213193`.** Neutral maps exactly to 5;
+  zero load maps to 5.00936146844, D p95 to 4.911081, the observed maximum to 4.836364, and
+  the asymptote to 4.51796146844.
+- Under the same curve, the 108-profile cup-entry p95 maps to 4.985211 and its maximum load to
+  4.856637.
+- The equation is **`cond = 5 + a − 0.4914·L/(L + 59.025216)`**; implementation derives `a`
+  from the other three constants rather than copying rounded prose.
+
+In the general-carrier diagnostic, a 0.173 deficit gives prize 0.26pp [0.04, 0.48], cost 0.10pp,
+and paired cost−prize −0.16pp [−0.53, 0.21], still unresolved. It does not replace the next
+focused maximum-role carrier gate, so F-2 remains default-OFF.
+
 ### Stage 3 — a multi-wallet feeder is exempt, not merely advantaged
 
 F-1's side rule writes nothing for a ladder away side that is human; `playoff-finalize.ts`
@@ -3479,9 +3754,10 @@ in-division; the cooldown is initiator-only. Observed at-appearance `L` reaches
 honest player while a team taking the same match count as the away side accumulates zero. That
 is exemption, not a ratio — bounded only by what bounds the feature. The historical `g=0.4`
 single-player prize is 0.59pp [0.25, 0.93]; at the selected D product amplitude the maximum
-recoverable deficit gives 0.19pp [−0.07, 0.45], and the independently certified team-level worst
-upper bound is 3.69pp across the 18 observed cells. The unmeasured legal role×condition extreme
-is why that bound is not yet an activation verdict.
+recoverable deficit gives 0.26pp [0.04, 0.48] in the general-carrier diagnostic, and the
+independently certified team-level worst upper bound is 3.48pp across the 18 observed cells. The §3-15 follow-up establishes the #728 role
+ladder through ×1024 below 5pp, but the 0.173 prize/cost ordering has still not been measured
+directly on that focused carrier, so this is not yet an activation verdict.
 
 ### What this does not settle
 
@@ -3516,10 +3792,11 @@ gate either, so such teams are excluded outright and the output says how many. N
 this window.
 
 The prize-versus-cost ordering at the D product amplitude remains unresolved: at its maximum
-recoverable deficit 0.173, prize is 0.19pp [−0.07, 0.45], cheapest selected cost is 0.16pp, and
-paired cost−prize is −0.03pp [−0.50, 0.43]. The neutral-point fork is now closed at the D active-appearance median;
-what remains is maximum LEGAL role concentration (the
-replay is what happened, not what the rules permit). Player identity is the snapshot's `actorIds` playerId, keyed GLOBALLY rather than per team —
+recoverable deficit 0.173, the general-carrier diagnostic prize is 0.26pp [0.04, 0.48], cost is
+0.10pp, and paired cost−prize is −0.16pp [−0.53, 0.21]. The neutral-point fork is now closed at the D
+active-appearance median, and the §3-15 synthetic basket closes the pre-registered role ladder.
+What remains here is to measure that 0.173 ordering directly on its practical-asymptote carrier;
+the replay was what happened, not that role stress. Player identity is the snapshot's `actorIds` playerId, keyed GLOBALLY rather than per team —
 a minted player sold mid-window would otherwise get two chains starting from zero, understating
 the buyer's vector. A missing actor map or even one player that fails to join is rejected by the
 replay-completeness gate; there is no name-key fallback. **Two code paths went
@@ -3542,15 +3819,69 @@ itself. The cost is that nothing with a period longer than 11 days is visible.
 C2_ENV_FILE=<main checkout>/.env.deploy DAYS=30 WINDOW_END=2026-09-01 \
   EXPORT_SNAPSHOTS=/tmp/prod-tl.json \
   pnpm --filter @sws26/api exec tsx scripts/c2-team-load.ts
-# Post-F-1 product curve: predicate D, testing only the selected L₀=4×p95
+# F-2 v2 all-τ price table: predicate D, structural cup fold 0.1375,
+# testing only the selected L₀=4×p95.
 MATCHES=3000 SNAPSHOTS=/tmp/prod-tl.json REPLAYS=5 TAU_SWEEP=6,12,24,48 \
-  LOAD_PRED=D L0_SWEEP=4 LAMBDA_MED=6 LAMBDA_MAX=21 \
+  LOAD_PRED=D L0_SWEEP=4 CUP_FOLD_SCALE=0.1375 EXPLORE_WORST=0 \
+  CALIBRATION_SEED_COLUMN=c2-cupfold-r45-final LAMBDA_MED=6 LAMBDA_MAX=21 \
+  pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/engagement-load.mts
+
+# Independent confirmation of the pre-fixed exact product point.
+MATCHES=3000 SNAPSHOTS=/tmp/prod-tl.json REPLAYS=5 TAU_SWEEP=24 \
+  LOAD_PRED=D L0_SWEEP=4 CUP_FOLD_SCALE=0.1375 EXPLORE_WORST=0 \
+  FIXED_AMPLITUDE=0.4914 CALIBRATION_SEED_COLUMN=c2-cupfold-r42-product \
+  LAMBDA_MED=6 LAMBDA_MAX=21 \
+  pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/engagement-load.mts
+
+# Canonical hand-off for the cup gate: the first post-warm-up human entry vector
+# for each cup/team, with ladder and raw-cup components kept separate.
+SNAPSHOTS=/tmp/prod-tl.json TAU_SWEEP=24 TIME_BASE=claim LOAD_PRED=D \
+  CUP_FOLD_SCALE=0.1375 \
+  EXPORT_CUP_ENTRIES=/tmp/cup-entry-r36.json EXPORT_CUP_ENTRIES_ONLY=1 \
   pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/engagement-load.mts
 
 # Historical C-conditioned 1×/2×/4× table only
 MATCHES=3000 SNAPSHOTS=/tmp/prod-tl.json REPLAYS=5 TAU_SWEEP=6,12,24,48 \
   LOAD_PRED=C L0_SWEEP=1,2,4 LAMBDA_MED=6 LAMBDA_MAX=21 \
   pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/engagement-load.mts
+
+# 2026-09-06 final role×condition run. All 66 shards retain the full
+# 67,320-test × 3-look family and share one independent seed column.
+for focal_index in 0 1 2 3 4 5; do
+  ROLE_SIDE=offense FOCAL_INDEX="$focal_index" \
+    SEED_CHECKPOINTS=50000,100000,200000 SEED_COLUMN=role-cond-r37-final \
+    CONTROL_SEEDS=20 \
+    pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/role-cond.mts \
+    > "/tmp/role-r37-final-offense-${focal_index}.out" &
+done
+wait
+for focal_index in 0 1 2 3 4 5; do
+  for role_slot in 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10; do
+    ROLE_SIDE=defense FOCAL_INDEX="$focal_index" ROLE_SLOT="$role_slot" \
+      SEED_CHECKPOINTS=50000,100000,200000 SEED_COLUMN=role-cond-r37-final \
+      CONTROL_SEEDS=20 \
+      pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/role-cond.mts \
+      > "/tmp/role-r37-final-defense-${focal_index}-${role_slot}.out" &
+  done
+  wait
+done
+
+# 2026-09-06 v2 cup boundary. 0.1375 is index 8; run it, every larger point,
+# and its lower neighbour without assuming monotonicity. Both pre-fixed
+# amplitudes are priced in the full 304,128-test family.
+for scale_index in 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9; do
+  ENTRY_PROFILES=/tmp/cup-entry-r36.json CUP_SCALE_INDEX="$scale_index" \
+    TRIALS=3000 CONTROL_TRIALS=20 FORM_AMPLITUDE=0.4914 \
+    AMPLITUDE_FAMILY_SIZE=2 SEED_COLUMN=cup-role-r44-final \
+    pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/cup-role-load.mts \
+    > "/tmp/cup-r44-final-b04914-s${scale_index}.out" &
+done
+wait
+ENTRY_PROFILES=/tmp/cup-entry-r36.json CUP_SCALE_INDEX=8 TRIALS=3000 \
+  CONTROL_TRIALS=20 FORM_AMPLITUDE=0.5026 AMPLITUDE_FAMILY_SIZE=2 \
+  SEED_COLUMN=cup-role-r44-final \
+  pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/cup-role-load.mts \
+  > /tmp/cup-r44-final-b05026-s8.out
 ```
 
 **The window's end is now stated explicitly, so these figures can be rebuilt.** The default is