pog-mcp 0.9.7 → 0.9.8

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "pog-mcp",
-  "version": "0.9.7",
+  "version": "0.9.8",
   "type": "module",
   "description": "MCP server that lets an AI agent play Proof of Goal — wallet, sign-in, squad building, and matches as typed tools.",
   "license": "MIT",

package/skill/reference/measurements.md

@@ -2544,18 +2544,24 @@ that was an artefact of an unattainable +4 buff and is withdrawn.
   the short side drops by the same Δ. A real fatigued squad is uneven.
 
 
-## What growth-neutral load would a player accrue? (`engagement-load.mts` + `c2-team-load.ts`)
-
-**This section does NOT close C-2.** An earlier version said it did; that was wrong. `τ` was
-never measured — the probe's 24h default was simply used — and the neutral point was left
-unchosen between its two branches. An F-1 implementer following that decision would have made
-a probe default the production recovery rate. And `τ` cannot be measured from this data: at the
-time of this measurement F-1 did not exist, so production had no fatigue and there was no observed
-recovery curve to fit. What measurement CAN do is price the choices, which is what the τ sweep
-does. Predicate C versus D was the third product choice at publication; it was subsequently
-resolved as **D** on 2026-09-04. The published values remain conditional on C; switching to D
-moves τ=24h median/p95 `L` by −5.3%/−10.4%. That measures the price of the choice, and selecting D
-does not retroactively relabel C-conditioned calibration as D-conditioned evidence.
+## What growth-neutral load would a player accrue? — measurement and product decision
+
+The first #783/#784 measurement did **not** close C-2. `τ` was not measurable — the probe's 24h
+default had merely been used — and the neutral point was left between two branches. Production
+had no fatigue curve to fit before F-1; measurement could price the choices but could not make the
+product choice. Predicate C versus D was also open at publication and F-1 subsequently persisted
+**D** on 2026-09-04. The C-conditioned tables and correction trail below remain historical evidence;
+they are not relabelled as D.
+
+**Product decision, 2026-09-06 — F-2 reference curve.** Re-integrating the same owner-only export
+and stored seed column under D, then independently validating only the selected 4× curve, chooses
+**`τ=24h`**, active-appearance neutral load **`L_neutral=8.076776`**,
+**`L₀=90.717176`** (4× D p95 `22.679294`), **`b=0.5399`**, and therefore
+**`a=b·L_neutral/(L_neutral+L₀)=0.044139`**. The versioned equation is
+`cond=5+a−bL/(L+L₀)`. This does not activate fatigue: F-2 first lands behind a default-OFF flag,
+and G-3 can flip only after the maximum legal role×condition interaction, 8–11-match cup depletion,
+the launch-amplitude prize/cost ordering, H ceiling, and I-c CAP clear against this same curve.
+The D product rerun is recorded below; the older C run remains the audit trail.
 
 ### F-1 implementation status — predicate D is now durable
 
@@ -3418,14 +3424,64 @@ rule-of-three bound was bolted on for it. Under empirical Bernstein the range te
 `3R ln(3/δ)/n` survives at SD = 0, so the interval never collapses in the first place: no
 guard, no special case, and one fewer argument resting on its own iid assumption.
 
+### Post-F-1 product rerun — certify only the selected D · 4× curve
+
+Results 6 through the safe-amplitude section above preserve the historical predicate-C run and
+its joint 1×/2×/4× candidate family. The product values were not obtained by scaling that table.
+All four τ values were re-integrated and tested from scratch with
+**`LOAD_PRED=D L0_SWEEP=4`**, using the same stored seed column and the same owner-only export,
+SHA-256 `1c7335ba9fa11388363de57628207ecc4820dc9bb02285066bda849adf571b6f`.
+Letting discarded 1×/2× curves choose the worst cell or enlarge the family would charge the
+shipped curve for hypotheses the product does not ship. The 4× choice was fixed from input-load
+geometry, not outcome seeds, before the result bounds; its family is
+`(26+26+26+24)×6 opponents = 612`.
+
+| τ(h) | D `L` median | D `L` p95 | 0.2-derived `b` (4×) | one match (pp)\* | cells over | **product-curve safe `b`** | worst upper at low end |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| 6 | 2.51 | 10.52 | 3.548 | 0.2948 | **14/16** | 0.4296–0.4331 | 3.74pp |
+| 12 | 4.07 | 14.29 | 3.009 | 0.1876 | **7/16** | 0.4672–0.4701 | 3.44pp |
+| **24** | **8.08** | **22.68** | **2.446** | **0.0980** | **0/18** | **0.5399–0.5423** | **3.69pp** |
+| 48 | 16.69 | 40.03 | 2.119 | 0.0488 | **0/17** | 0.5546–0.5567 | 3.70pp |
+
+\* “One match” is the secant conversion at each row's `b` derived from E's 0.2 median spread,
+kept only for comparison. It is not the one-match cost at the selected safe `b`. The safe range
+is not a confidence interval either: its left endpoint is the largest grid point independently
+established below for every actual cell, while the right endpoint is the smallest grid point not
+established below. No row established a lower bound above 5pp, so none gets an upper threshold.
+
+The product choices are:
+
+- **`τ=24h`.** The 6h and 12h 0.2-derived curves put 14 and 7 cells over; 24h is the first with
+  zero. 48h is also zero but halves the one-match secant again, 0.0980→0.0488pp. This is a product
+  compromise between daily rotation and fairness, not a recovery estimate fitted to observations.
+- **`L₀=90.717176`.** This is 4× the D/τ24 pre-appearance p95 `22.679294`, and 2.12× the observed
+  maximum `42.87`. At that maximum the marginal slope retained relative to zero load is
+  12.0%/26.4%/46.1% for 1×/2×/4×. Only 4× meaningfully follows §3-1's prescription to keep the
+  curvature scale above the realistic range so marginal cost does not die early.
+- **Neutral `L=8.076776`, `b=0.5399`, `a=0.044139`.** The median active appearance maps to
+  condition 5. Zero load maps to 5.044, D p95 to 4.936, this window's observed maximum to 4.871,
+  and the asymptote to 4.504. At `b=0.5399`, the independent worst upper bound is 3.69pp across
+  all 18 actual cells.
+- **Prize versus cost remains unresolved.** At the safe amplitude's maximum recoverable deficit
+  0.173, the prize is 0.19pp [−0.07, 0.45], the selected cheapest one-point replacement costs
+  0.16pp, and paired cost−prize is −0.03pp [−0.50, 0.43]. Together with the unmeasured legal
+  role×condition and cup extremes, that keeps F-2 default OFF until the follow-up gates and G-3.
+
+The canonical constants are therefore `τ=24h` and
+`cond = 5 + 0.044139 − 0.5399·L/(L + 90.717176)`. Implementation derives `a` from the other
+three constants so documentation rounding cannot move the exact neutral point.
+
 ### Stage 3 — a multi-wallet feeder is exempt, not merely advantaged
 
 F-1's side rule writes nothing for a ladder away side that is human; `playoff-finalize.ts`
 calls `applyResult` for both; `selectOpponentByStrength` draws from the five strength-nearest
 in-division; the cooldown is initiator-only. Observed at-appearance `L` reaches 55 for an
 honest player while a team taking the same match count as the away side accumulates zero. That
-is exemption, not a ratio — bounded only by what bounds the feature, since the prize is 0.59pp at g=0.4 (0.16pp at the τ=24h safe amplitude)
-and the team-level gap is 3.43pp at the safe amplitude, under the gate.
+is exemption, not a ratio — bounded only by what bounds the feature. The historical `g=0.4`
+single-player prize is 0.59pp [0.25, 0.93]; at the selected D product amplitude the maximum
+recoverable deficit gives 0.19pp [−0.07, 0.45], and the independently certified team-level worst
+upper bound is 3.69pp across the 18 observed cells. The unmeasured legal role×condition extreme
+is why that bound is not yet an activation verdict.
 
 ### What this does not settle
 
@@ -3459,10 +3515,10 @@ states while `allCells` did not. A deficit of exactly zero is not evidence of cl
 gate either, so such teams are excluded outright and the output says how many. None occur in
 this window.
 
-The prize-versus-cost ordering AT THE AMPLITUDE THAT WOULD SHIP — it splits at `g=0.4`
-(−0.43pp [−0.76, −0.10]) but not at the safe amplitude's own deficit (0.133; prize 0.16pp
-[−0.09, 0.40], cheapest cost 0.16pp, paired difference 0.00pp [−0.47, 0.47]), and that second
-one is the decision. The neutral-point fork. Maximum LEGAL role concentration (the
+The prize-versus-cost ordering at the D product amplitude remains unresolved: at its maximum
+recoverable deficit 0.173, prize is 0.19pp [−0.07, 0.45], cheapest selected cost is 0.16pp, and
+paired cost−prize is −0.03pp [−0.50, 0.43]. The neutral-point fork is now closed at the D active-appearance median;
+what remains is maximum LEGAL role concentration (the
 replay is what happened, not what the rules permit). Player identity is the snapshot's `actorIds` playerId, keyed GLOBALLY rather than per team —
 a minted player sold mid-window would otherwise get two chains starting from zero, understating
 the buyer's vector. A missing actor map or even one player that fails to join is rejected by the
@@ -3486,9 +3542,15 @@ itself. The cost is that nothing with a period longer than 11 days is visible.
 C2_ENV_FILE=<main checkout>/.env.deploy DAYS=30 WINDOW_END=2026-09-01 \
   EXPORT_SNAPSHOTS=/tmp/prod-tl.json \
   pnpm --filter @sws26/api exec tsx scripts/c2-team-load.ts
+# Post-F-1 product curve: predicate D, testing only the selected L₀=4×p95
+MATCHES=3000 SNAPSHOTS=/tmp/prod-tl.json REPLAYS=5 TAU_SWEEP=6,12,24,48 \
+  LOAD_PRED=D L0_SWEEP=4 LAMBDA_MED=6 LAMBDA_MAX=21 \
+  pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/engagement-load.mts
+
+# Historical C-conditioned 1×/2×/4× table only
 MATCHES=3000 SNAPSHOTS=/tmp/prod-tl.json REPLAYS=5 TAU_SWEEP=6,12,24,48 \
-  LAMBDA_MED=6 LAMBDA_MAX=21 \
-  npx tsx packages/mcp/skill/reference/probes/engagement-load.mts
+  LOAD_PRED=C L0_SWEEP=1,2,4 LAMBDA_MED=6 LAMBDA_MAX=21 \
+  pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/engagement-load.mts
 ```
 
 **The window's end is now stated explicitly, so these figures can be rebuilt.** The default is
@@ -3567,9 +3629,12 @@ from an artificially low `L` and `Lmed`, the gate vectors and the safe amplitude
 understated. Engine changes are input-dependent, so interspersed failures are a normal
 possibility rather than a clean release boundary.
 
-`LOAD_PRED` selects the integration predicate (default `C`). C is published, and the probe also
-integrates at D at every τ and prints the difference. F-1 subsequently selected D, but the
-published figures remain C-conditioned: calibration must always carry the predicate it used.
+`LOAD_PRED` selects the integration predicate (default `D`). D is the F-1 product predicate, and
+the probe also integrates the opposite predicate C at every τ and prints the difference. Set
+`LOAD_PRED=C` explicitly to reproduce the historical C-conditioned figures: calibration must
+always carry the predicate it used. `L0_SWEEP` selects the p95 multiples under test. Its default
+`1,2,4` preserves the historical comparison; the product amplitude is certified separately with
+`L0_SWEEP=4`, so an unselected curve neither enlarges the family nor chooses the worst cell.
 
 Without `TAU_SWEEP` only `TAU_H` runs. **Calling a single-τ run a "decision" makes a probe
 default the production recovery rate** — that is why the sweep exists.