pog-mcp 0.9.10 → 0.9.12

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "pog-mcp",
-  "version": "0.9.10",
+  "version": "0.9.12",
   "type": "module",
   "description": "MCP server that lets an AI agent play Proof of Goal — wallet, sign-in, squad building, and matches as typed tools.",
   "license": "MIT",

package/skill/reference/measurements.md

@@ -1907,9 +1907,12 @@ runs from 1 to 5 depending on the core.
 Every match here runs at `cond: 5` with no workload carried between fixtures. So this
 measures **how much a new attribute vector improves one fresh XI** — market quality — and
 not **what depth buys by resting tired players**, which is the mechanism H exists to cap.
-Simulating that needs a recovery rate and a neutral point, and those are C-2's to decide.
-**H's maximum stays open.** What follows is a market-quality result, and it is worth having
-on its own.
+Simulating that needs a recovery rate and a neutral point. **At this run's publication H's
+maximum stayed open.** Result 7e later crosses the selected F-2 curve with the maximum-role
+carrier and establishes the recovery prize; its first two-vector H treatment was later withdrawn
+under CAP=0. Result 7g closes the product value at `N=17` across every N17 registration in one
+immutable 18-asset owned universe;
+the figures below remain market-quality evidence, not that final bound.
 
 **Two errors point opposite ways, so this is not an upper bound.** The buyer is fully
 informed — it sees all 30 listings' vectors, while production hides attributes and even
@@ -2535,14 +2538,14 @@ identity (`tournament_id IS NOT NULL`) and applies 0.1375 to cups and 1 to ladde
 one helper shared by current accumulation and historical rebuild. The fixed population, zero-gap,
 opponent-role, and changing-bracket limitations are the same as in the historical run above.
 
-## What a same-sum vector transfer is worth (`attr-vs-cond.mts`)
+## What a same-sum vector transfer is worth (`attr-vs-cond.mts`) [historical input]
 
-F-6 lets a registration submission redistribute each player's four attributes **within
-that player's own sum**. Two core players with equal sums can therefore submit each
-other's vectors: every check passes, and the strong build lands on whichever ID the
-manager picks. §3-12 answers with a per-registration cap on how far a vector may
-move from its own previous one, which slows a transfer to `ceil(distance / CAP)`
-registrations rather than blocking it; load is never moved. This probe measures what the transfer would have been worth.
+This probe was run while F-6 still proposed letting a registration redistribute each player's
+four attributes **within that player's own sum**. Two equal-sum core players could then submit
+each other's vectors and move the strong build to a rested ID. The intermediate §3-12 design
+slowed that transfer with a per-registration L1 cap. Result 7e later measures the missing distance
+family and rejects every effective positive integer cap, choosing **`CAP=0`**. Production F-6
+therefore permits no vector redistribution; this section remains evidence for why.
 
 ### Method
 
@@ -2629,12 +2632,13 @@ vector-identical pairs and prints what it skipped (35 cells).
 The exit code covers the control only. A cell failing equivalence is a **result** here,
 not a harness fault — §3-12's rule applies whether or not the swap moves value.
 
-### What this cannot decide
+### What this could not decide
 
-One squad family, one tired/fresh gap (4.5 vs 5.5), and one cross-position pair. It does
-not measure how often the rejection blocks an edit a manager legitimately wants; §3-12
-bounds the geometry (four registrations to reach L1 distance 2, never closer), but the
-distribution of wanted edits is unmeasured. C-2's stress cases own that.
+One squad family, one tired/fresh gap (4.5 vs 5.5), and one cross-position pair could not choose
+the cap. It also did not measure how often rejecting edits blocks a legitimate respec. Result 7e
+adds all 66 maximum roles and exact even distances 2–32, finds a distance-2 witness already worth
+11.70pp [10.50, 12.89], and selects `CAP=0`. The distribution and UX value of honest requested
+edits remain unmeasured; the product deliberately chooses the closed fairness boundary anyway.
 
 ## What is one point of condition worth? (`cond-effect.mts`)
 
@@ -2776,9 +2780,12 @@ load **`L_neutral=1.146304`**, **`L₀=59.025216`** (4× D p95 `14.756304`),
 **`a=b·L_neutral/(L_neutral+L₀)=0.009361468442213193`**. The versioned equation is
 `cond=5+a−bL/(L+L₀)`. This does not activate fatigue: F-2 remains behind a default-OFF flag.
 The §3-15 follow-up closes #728-ladder role×condition and the shipped eight-match cup at the
-pre-fixed two-dimensional boundary `s=0.1375, b=0.4914`. G-3 can flip only after the
-launch-amplitude focused-role prize/cost ordering, H ceiling, and I-c CAP clear against this same
-curve. Result 7d records the current rerun; the older C run and cup×1 result 7c remain audit trails.
+pre-fixed two-dimensional boundary `s=0.1375, b=0.4914`. Result 7e then closes the
+launch-amplitude focused-role recovery prize and I-c at `CAP=0`; result 7g closes H at `N=17`
+by comparing every admissible N17 registration against N18 in one immutable owned universe.
+F-2 stays default-OFF until
+F-3/F-4/J and G-3 are implemented. Result 7d records
+the current rerun; the older C run and cup×1 result 7c remain audit trails.
 
 ### F-1 implementation status — predicate D is now durable
 
@@ -3683,11 +3690,12 @@ The product choices are:
   condition 5. Zero load maps to 5.044, D p95 to 4.936, this window's observed maximum to 4.871,
   and the asymptote to 4.504. At `b=0.5399`, the independent worst upper bound is 3.69pp across
   all 18 actual cells.
-- **Prize versus cost remains unresolved.** At the safe amplitude's maximum recoverable deficit
+- **Prize versus cost was unresolved at this revision.** At the safe amplitude's maximum recoverable deficit
   0.173, the prize is 0.19pp [−0.07, 0.45], the selected cheapest one-point replacement costs
   0.16pp, and paired cost−prize is −0.03pp [−0.50, 0.43]. The role×condition and cup extremes
   now clear in the §3-15 follow-up, but this ordering was not measured directly on the practical-
-  asymptote carrier. That focused prize/cost gate, H, CAP, the cup fold and G-3 keep F-2 OFF.
+  asymptote carrier. At result 7c, that focused prize/cost gate, H, CAP, the cup fold and G-3 kept
+  F-2 OFF; results 7d/7e/7f later close every item in that list except G-3.
 
 The canonical constants are therefore `τ=24h` and
 `cond = 5 + 0.044139 − 0.5399·L/(L + 90.717176)`. Implementation derives `a` from the other
@@ -3743,8 +3751,207 @@ The current constants are:
   from the other three constants rather than copying rounded prose.
 
 In the general-carrier diagnostic, a 0.173 deficit gives prize 0.26pp [0.04, 0.48], cost 0.10pp,
-and paired cost−prize −0.16pp [−0.53, 0.21], still unresolved. It does not replace the next
-focused maximum-role carrier gate, so F-2 remains default-OFF.
+and paired cost−prize −0.16pp [−0.53, 0.21], still unresolved. It does not replace the
+focused maximum-role carrier gate. Result 7e closes the recovery prize and I-c, but its first H
+cost treatment writes a second incumbent vector and is invalid under CAP=0; result 7g supplies the
+corrected same-owned-universe measurement.
+
+### Result 7e — launch role economics and I-c `CAP=0` (H cost verdict withdrawn, 2026-09-07)
+
+`role-economics.mts` imports the result-7d product function directly and fixes the exact treatment
+at observed maximum `L=32.07`: **fresh 5.009361468442 versus tired 4.836364480324**, a deficit of
+**0.172996988118**. It uses the same six legal squads as §3-15, six offensive carriers plus 60
+non-GK defensive slots, the maximum pre-registered role multiplier ×1024, and a uniform 60-cell
+basket of six opponents by ten growth states. One observation first groups home/away ×
+regulation/knockout for one independently sampled basket cell, then applies knockout exposure
+**8.14%**.
+The unit is §3-15's win-rate-advantage pp, `win-equivalent-share difference × 2`, so one
+observation lies in [−200, 200]pp and the support width is 400pp.
+
+Candidate selection uses **5,000** clusters from `role-economics-r1-select`; independent
+publication uses `role-economics-r1-final` with **200,000** economics clusters and **50,000** CAP
+clusters. For each role the selector exhausts **56–160** legal one-point-weaker replacements and
+**83–633** legal same-sum vectors, then confirms the top four economics candidates and top four
+high/low pairs at every exact even L1 distance on the publication column. The simultaneous family
+is **4,818 = 66×73**, each endpoint has `δ=5.188875e-6`, and the bounded empirical-Bernstein
+support width is **400pp**. Minimum–maximum context counts are **53–119 / 3,087–3,553 /
+741–937** for selection/economics/CAP, with all 60/60 cells present for every role. The 80
+stock↔patch and 80 ×1-role identities per shard are all byte-identical, **5,280** of each in total.
+The run replays **1,477,620,000 matches**. SHA-256 of the 66 sorted `RESULT_JSON` records is
+`ea666c7e275a6559b2aa02db77f8069e618821b439d9a9bf518166f12e5c381f`.
+
+**The valid part — the recovery prize is real.** The lower endpoint of the fresh-versus-tired
+prize is above zero in 66/66 roles. R1 then chose, per role, the finalist with the largest
+publication-column net `fresh one-point-weaker − tired anchor` and produced the following table.
+Its simultaneous-family accounting is sound, but the physical treatment does not implement H;
+the table is retained as audit history and is not a product verdict.
+
+| role | prize point-estimate range | fresh replacement better | tired starter better | unresolved |
+| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| offense 6 | 0.44–0.84pp | **5** | 0 | 1 |
+| defense 60 | 0.28–1.15pp | **5** | 38 | 17 |
+
+All finalists belong to the global simultaneous family, so choosing within the publication column
+does not invalidate their intervals. The largest reported value was
+`433/stars/atk|offense|slot8`, candidate `defense→slot1.defense`: prize **+0.44±0.16pp**,
+effect of the one-point-weaker role player plus the compensating point elsewhere
+**−1.08±0.37pp**, hence fresh replacement net **+1.52±0.37pp [1.15, 1.88]**. However,
+`costCandidates` lowers the role player's total by one and simultaneously raises a different
+incumbent's persisted vector and total by one. Adding asset 18 cannot perform that second write when
+`CAP=0`. This is a counterfactual two-vector XI effect, not the N17→N18 marginal slot, so its use as
+H evidence is **withdrawn** [Codex P1, 2026-09-07]. Result 7g owns the corrected H verdict.
+
+**I-c — the assumption that nearby vectors are not worth changing is refuted.** The `ĝ(d)` rows
+below choose the largest publication mean among the four independently selected pairs. Selection
+error can miss the true argmax, so these are holdout-confirmed existence witnesses in the lower-
+bound direction, not mathematical upper bounds over the whole space. That direction is sufficient
+to reject a CAP.
+
+| L1 distance d | holdout `ĝ(d)` | simultaneous interval | roles established over 5pp |
+| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| 2 | **11.70pp** | [10.50, 12.89] | **64/66** |
+| 4 | 22.81pp | [21.35, 24.27] | 66/66 |
+| 6 | 33.75pp | [32.16, 35.35] | 66/66 |
+| 8 | 44.21pp | [42.54, 45.88] | 66/66 |
+| 10 | 53.74pp | [52.01, 55.46] | 66/66 |
+| 12 | 63.19pp | [61.44, 64.94] | 66/66 |
+| 14 | 70.59pp | [68.87, 72.32] | 65/65 |
+| 16 | 77.78pp | [76.06, 79.50] | 62/62 |
+| 18 | 76.64pp | [75.09, 78.20] | 50/50 |
+| 20 | 76.61pp | [75.04, 78.18] | 42/42 |
+| 22 | 76.77pp | [75.19, 78.35] | 39/39 |
+| 24 | 76.85pp | [75.27, 78.43] | 36/36 |
+| 26 | 77.11pp | [75.53, 78.69] | 28/28 |
+| 28 | 77.18pp | [75.60, 78.77] | 24/24 |
+| 30 | 77.22pp | [75.63, 78.80] | 17/17 |
+| 32 | 55.61pp | [54.02, 57.20] | 2/2 |
+
+The distance-2 maximum witness is `433/stars/atk|defense|slot2`,
+`(1,6,1,4)→(2,6,1,3)`; both are legal same-sum vectors. Two is the minimum non-zero L1 distance
+for a sum-preserving integer edit, so every effective positive integer `CAP≥2` admits this
+11.70pp move in one registration. `CAP=1` admits no change and is behaviourally equal to zero.
+Waiting more weeks or reasoning from maximum distance cannot rescue a positive CAP.
+
+The explicit product value is therefore **`CAP=0`**. The four attributes fixed at creation or
+acquisition never change in later weekly registrations. This deliberately gives up honest respecs;
+it does not freeze pool membership, mutable positions/names for unminted players, or FK/PK choices.
+F-6 now enforces one shared vector-identity gate immediately before every squad write. This result
+closes C-2's recovery prize and I-c; result 7g below closes H. F-2 and the player pool remain
+default-OFF until F-3/F-4/J and G-3 are implemented.
+This is an existence result over the pre-fixed uniform 60-cell **mean** with shipped-default
+opponent role sheets. It does not bound crossed opponent-role sheets or the global engine space,
+but the positive allowed cases needed to reject every effective positive integer CAP already exist
+inside this scope.
+
+### Result 7f — first immutable actual-pool N17⊂N18 correction (H evidence withdrawn, 2026-09-07)
+
+The Codex P1 reproduces exactly: result 7e's H candidate changes two incumbent vectors, so it is
+not an action that adding one asset can perform under the selected `CAP=0`. The corrected
+`MODE=pool-ceiling` directly imports and asserts
+`WEEKLY_PLAYER_POOL_PRODUCT_SIZE=17` and `WEEKLY_PLAYER_VECTOR_L1_CAP=0` before it runs.
+
+The next Codex P1 also reproduces exactly. This run compares only one pre-selected N17 with N18.
+An owner holding the same 18 assets can register core eleven, the new fresh focal and any five low
+clones at N17, so that N17 already has both outcomes from this run. The exhaustive counts, values
+and hashes below remain an exact audit of those two specific pools, but they are **not the marginal
+effect of registration slot 18 or evidence for H. That attribution is withdrawn; result 7g owns
+the current verdict.**
+
+The pre-fixed witness is `433/stars/atk|offense|slot8`. N17 consists of the legal source team's
+core eleven plus six distinct minted assets carrying the source's legal total-12 DF vector. N18
+preserves those 17 complete rows as a prefix and adds only a new minted asset with the tired slot-8
+player's same FW position, total 29 and `(pass,dribble,shoot,defense)=(6,9,9,5)` vector. No acquired
+name, position, attribute or designation is rewritten; the role sheet and condition are
+match-time tactic/derived values. N17 and N18's preserved-prefix SHA-256 are both
+`a43d28b29ee2474e2233f4f54315c3198d2a3d18f45ddee1834fc4761f3e1f9e`; full N18 is
+`147a312a0b3932e41f6530b19170301ef1037d4d215365ccc41458e03b7985cc`.
+
+The probe exhausts `C(17,11)` and `C(18,11)` and sends every 212-point subset through the engine
+validator. N17 has **210 legal subsets**, all containing the tired focal, and **one** competitive
+projection. N18 has **420/two**; **210** use the new asset instead of the tired focal and form the
+second outcome. The projection contains position, attrs, total, condition, FK/PK and both role
+sheets, excluding only asset identity and display names, which do not enter the winner calculation.
+The unchanged N17 outcome remains available in N18, so the treatment is one fresh playerId rather
+than an incumbent rewrite.
+
+The independent `role-economics-r2-pool-final` publication has **200,000 clusters** and covers all
+60 contexts **3,188–3,481 times per cell**. Each observation is the same home/away × REG/KO group;
+support width is 400pp and the pre-fixed family of one uses two endpoint `δ=0.025` bounded
+empirical-Bernstein intervals. Across **1,600,000 matches**, the N18-only fresh outcome gains
+**+0.431679±0.078950pp [0.352728, 0.510629]**. Two separate processes reproduce byte-identical
+numbers and `POOL_RESULT_JSON`; its SHA-256 is
+`48615a458ee8e5696f6259bf8b9ff5d48056be96e50509db9f3d2a3abfcde606`.
+N17 has one competitive outcome and N18 has only that outcome plus the fresh one, so the positive
+simultaneous lower endpoint also establishes the fresh arm as N18's best on this pre-fixed mean.
+
+The positive difference is valid between the pre-selected N17 and N18 above. A better N17
+registration contains both outcomes, however, so this value alone cannot select H's product maximum.
+
+```bash
+MODE=pool-ceiling POOL_SEEDS=200000 CONTROL_SEEDS=20 \
+  POOL_COLUMN=role-economics-r2-pool-final \
+  pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/role-economics.mts
+```
+
+### Result 7g — every N17 registration versus N18 in one owned universe, H `N=17` (current product decision, 2026-09-07)
+
+The second correction fixes the owned universe at 18 assets first and changes only the registration
+ceiling. The eleven core-XI IDs are mandatory on both sides. The optional assets are seven distinct
+minted clones byte-identical to the seven core vectors in slots 4–10. Their totals are
+**10, 13, 16, 19, 27, 28 and 29**; all are FWs, creating seven pre-fixed maximum offensive roles at
+×1024. The other four players force GK/DF/DMF/OMF. The XI sums to 212 and exactly saturates
+`TEN_MAX=3` and `EIGHT_MAX=5`. SHA-256 of the 18-asset owned universe is
+`a62626d300ea675e82f61c11b06ef9b15577ad52bc173cf3bdf3b73d15adb73b`.
+
+Because core eleven is mandatory, the maximal N17 registrations are **all seven** choices that omit
+one clone. Any smaller registration is weakly dominated by one of these because adding an owned
+asset cannot remove a legal XI. The probe exhausts each N17's `C(17,11)` and N18's `C(18,11)`, then
+sends every 212-point candidate through the actual engine validator. Each N17 has **293–385**
+212-point candidates and exactly **64 legal XIs**; N18 has **876/128**. Every legal XI contains the
+four structurally mandatory cores and exactly one member of each of the seven core/clone pairs, and
+has one base competitive outcome after excluding asset identity and display name. In each focused
+role, N18 has tired/fresh outcomes; only the N17 missing that role's clone has one tired outcome,
+while the other six N17 registrations have both. The probe exhaustively asserts this **7×7
+frontier**, removing any opportunity to manufacture the gain by selecting a weak N17.
+
+After a defensive pilot, the more direct seven offensive roles were fixed on a separate pilot
+column. The independent `role-economics-r3-pool-final` publication hashes one role and one of the 60
+opponent×growth cells uniformly per cluster, then replays that role's fresh/tired arms on identical
+home/away × REG/KO seeds. It has **1,000,000 clusters and 8,000,000 matches**, covering all 420/420
+role×context cells **2,255–2,511 times**. For each N17 registration, an observation is fresh−tired
+when the sampled role is its omitted clone and zero otherwise because the pools' best outcomes are
+identical. The pre-fixed family is seven, endpoint `δ=0.0035714285714285718`, with 400pp support
+width.
+
+| omitted N17 clone | N18−that N17 best (pp) | simultaneous 95% interval |
+| --- | ---: | ---: |
+| `clone-04` | +0.096454±0.021319 | [0.075136, 0.117773] |
+| `clone-05` | +0.080273±0.020059 | [0.060214, 0.100332] |
+| `clone-06` | +0.066324±0.018963 | [0.047362, 0.085287] |
+| `clone-07` | +0.035576±0.016225 | [0.019351, 0.051801] |
+| `clone-08` | +0.024480±0.014288 | [0.010192, 0.038768] |
+| `clone-09` | +0.020601±0.014259 | [0.006342, 0.034861] |
+| `clone-10` | **+0.013387±0.013130** | **[0.000257, 0.026517]** |
+
+All **7/7 lower endpoints are positive**. Selecting the lowest publication mean, `clone-10`, as the
+“best N17” is valid because all seven intervals are simultaneous. Two separate processes reproduce
+byte-identical complete output; SHA-256 of `POOL_RESULT_JSON` is
+`3013554c387daa709125b2077c17b22710761d70bf4a4c1d2c053fb21570b51b`.
+
+H therefore sets the global product maximum to **`N=17`**. Core eleven plus the largest free grant
+of six already needs 17, and there is an allowed case where even the best N17 registration in the
+same owned universe is inferior to N18. This is an existence witness for one pre-fixed CAP0 owned
+universe under shipped-default opponent roles and the uniform role/60-cell mean, not a global lower
+bound on N18−N17 over every pool. H's P13 question needs one allowed case to show slot 18 is not
+structurally inert. N=17 still does not erase purchase advantage: the one-free-player branch can
+leave as many as five optional selected slots. Runtime accepts only
+`FORM_PLAYER_POOL_MAX_SIZE=17`; N18 remains a complete-enumeration regression case.
+
+```bash
+MODE=pool-ceiling POOL_SEEDS=1000000 CONTROL_SEEDS=20 \
+  POOL_COLUMN=role-economics-r3-pool-final \
+  pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/role-economics.mts
+```
 
 ### Stage 3 — a multi-wallet feeder is exempt, not merely advantaged
 
@@ -3755,9 +3962,11 @@ honest player while a team taking the same match count as the away side accumula
 is exemption, not a ratio — bounded only by what bounds the feature. The historical `g=0.4`
 single-player prize is 0.59pp [0.25, 0.93]; at the selected D product amplitude the maximum
 recoverable deficit gives 0.26pp [0.04, 0.48] in the general-carrier diagnostic, and the
-independently certified team-level worst upper bound is 3.48pp across the 18 observed cells. The §3-15 follow-up establishes the #728 role
-ladder through ×1024 below 5pp, but the 0.173 prize/cost ordering has still not been measured
-directly on that focused carrier, so this is not yet an activation verdict.
+independently certified team-level worst upper bound is 3.48pp across the 18 observed cells. The
+§3-15 follow-up establishes the #728 role ladder through ×1024 below 5pp, and result 7e measures
+the 0.173 recovery prize directly on all 66 focused roles. Its original two-vector H cost is
+withdrawn; result 7g provides the same-owned-universe H comparison. The feeder decision itself remains a
+product tradeoff; the now-closed H/I-c numeric gates do not decide it.
 
 ### What this does not settle
 
@@ -3791,12 +4000,12 @@ states while `allCells` did not. A deficit of exactly zero is not evidence of cl
 gate either, so such teams are excluded outright and the output says how many. None occur in
 this window.
 
-The prize-versus-cost ordering at the D product amplitude remains unresolved: at its maximum
-recoverable deficit 0.173, the general-carrier diagnostic prize is 0.26pp [0.04, 0.48], cost is
-0.10pp, and paired cost−prize is −0.16pp [−0.53, 0.21]. The neutral-point fork is now closed at the D
-active-appearance median, and the §3-15 synthetic basket closes the pre-registered role ladder.
-What remains here is to measure that 0.173 ordering directly on its practical-asymptote carrier;
-the replay was what happened, not that role stress. Player identity is the snapshot's `actorIds` playerId, keyed GLOBALLY rather than per team —
+The general-carrier prize-versus-cost ordering remains unresolved on its own: at maximum
+recoverable deficit 0.173 its prize is 0.26pp [0.04, 0.48], cost is 0.10pp, and paired
+cost−prize is −0.16pp [−0.53, 0.21]. Result 7e does not relabel that diagnostic; it supplies the
+missing direct 66-role recovery-prize and I-c measurement. Its two-vector H use is withdrawn;
+result 7g closes H across all admissible N17 registrations in one immutable owned universe. Player identity is
+the snapshot's `actorIds` playerId, keyed GLOBALLY rather than per team —
 a minted player sold mid-window would otherwise get two chains starting from zero, understating
 the buyer's vector. A missing actor map or even one player that fails to join is rejected by the
 replay-completeness gate; there is no name-key fallback. **Two code paths went
@@ -3882,6 +4091,35 @@ ENTRY_PROFILES=/tmp/cup-entry-r36.json CUP_SCALE_INDEX=8 TRIALS=3000 \
   SEED_COLUMN=cup-role-r44-final \
   pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/cup-role-load.mts \
   > /tmp/cup-r44-final-b05026-s8.out
+
+# 2026-09-07 r1 role recovery / I-c run. Its two-vector H diagnostic is
+# audit-only. Each one-role shard still pays for the full 4,818-interval
+# family; grouping only limits concurrency.
+for focal_index in 0 1 2 3 4 5; do
+  FOCAL_INDEX="$focal_index" ROLE_SIDE=offense \
+    SELECT_SEEDS=5000 ECON_SEEDS=200000 CAP_SEEDS=50000 CONTROL_SEEDS=20 \
+    SELECT_COLUMN=role-economics-r1-select PUBLISH_COLUMN=role-economics-r1-final \
+    pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/role-economics.mts \
+    > "/tmp/role-economics-r1-${focal_index}-offense.out" &
+  for role_slot in 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10; do
+    FOCAL_INDEX="$focal_index" ROLE_SIDE=defense ROLE_SLOT="$role_slot" \
+      SELECT_SEEDS=5000 ECON_SEEDS=200000 CAP_SEEDS=50000 CONTROL_SEEDS=20 \
+      SELECT_COLUMN=role-economics-r1-select PUBLISH_COLUMN=role-economics-r1-final \
+      pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/role-economics.mts \
+      > "/tmp/role-economics-r1-${focal_index}-defense-${role_slot}.out" &
+  done
+  wait
+done
+rg --no-filename '^RESULT_JSON ' /tmp/role-economics-r1-*.out \
+  | sed 's/^RESULT_JSON //' | jq -s 'sort_by(.roleIndex)' \
+  > /tmp/role-economics-r1-results.json
+shasum -a 256 /tmp/role-economics-r1-results.json
+
+# Corrected H: every N17 registration versus N18 in one owned universe.
+MODE=pool-ceiling POOL_SEEDS=1000000 CONTROL_SEEDS=20 \
+  POOL_COLUMN=role-economics-r3-pool-final \
+  pnpm --filter pog-mcp exec tsx skill/reference/probes/role-economics.mts
+# POOL_RESULT_SHA256 3013554c387daa709125b2077c17b22710761d70bf4a4c1d2c053fb21570b51b
 ```
 
 **The window's end is now stated explicitly, so these figures can be rebuilt.** The default is