peeksafe 0.0.0-stage → 0.2.0

package/dist/frontier.js

@@ -0,0 +1,505 @@
+/**
+ * frontier.ts: what *is* certifiable at coding-agent prices, and how.
+ *
+ * ## Why this module exists
+ *
+ * At $1 a run a 200-case suite at a 15-point MDE is $1,320 a pull request, so
+ * peeksafe is not a per-PR gate for a coding-agent benchmark at that size. That
+ * is true and it is half an answer. The other half, the one a
+ * buyer actually needs, is **which configurations *are* affordable**, and
+ * nobody had drawn it.
+ *
+ * A configuration is a point in five dimensions:
+ *
+ *     suite size m  ×  MDE δ  ×  design  ×  screening  ×  baseline runs n_b
+ *
+ * and it is usable only if it is *both* affordable and **certifiable**. Those
+ * are different constraints, and a plan that conflates them quotes the wrong
+ * numbers. Cheap is easy: run fewer cases. Cheap *and able to decide anything* is
+ * the hard part, because `evidenceCeilingLogE` says a case whose unpaired
+ * ceiling sits under the e-BH bar cannot be certified at any budget, and the
+ * bar `m/q` moves with the suite size, so shrinking the suite raises the
+ * ceiling's odds *and* lowers the bar at the same time. That interaction is not
+ * something you can eyeball.
+ *
+ * ## The cost model, and the term the plan was missing
+ *
+ * `plan.ts` prices an observation at one number, `costPerRunUsd`. That is wrong
+ * in two ways at coding-agent prices, and both matter:
+ *
+ *  1. **Grading is not free.** An LLM judge is a model call; a coding-agent
+ *     grader is a test suite in a container. So
+ *
+ *         cost(observation) = costPerRunUsd + costPerGradeUsd
+ *
+ *     and the second term is the *only* one a cheap proxy grader can reduce.
+ *     When `costPerGradeUsd` is 0, which is the default,
+ *     matching this package's own free graders, a proxy screen saves exactly
+ *     nothing, and this module says so instead of offering it as an economy.
+ *
+ *  2. **The baseline is not free either, and it is not amortised over
+ *     infinity.** The README calls the baseline "amortised, you pay it once on
+ *     main". At $0.002 a run that is a rounding error. At $1 a run, a 200-case
+ *     suite with a 240-run baseline is 48,000 runs, **$48,000**, and spread
+ *     over a hundred pull requests it is still $480 each, which is larger than
+ *     everything else in the bill put together. The unpaired design's evidence
+ *     ceiling is bought with baseline runs, so *the amortised baseline is the
+ *     dominant cost of the unpaired design at coding-agent prices*, and the
+ *     paired design's headline advantage is not variance reduction. It is that
+ *     it does not need to buy a ceiling.
+ *
+ * ## What this module will not do
+ *
+ * It will not recommend a screened configuration whose **recall cost has not
+ * been measured**. Screening is the largest cost lever available and it is paid
+ * for in missed regressions, which the caller supplies as `screenRecall`
+ * against planted ground truth, and until someone has, the honest price of a
+ * screened plan is unknown rather than low.
+ */
+import { PeeksafeError, requireErrorRates, requireOpenProbability, requireProbability, requireRunCeiling, requireTrialGrid, } from "./errors.js";
+import { DEFAULT_PLAN, expectedSettlePairs, requireSettleConfidence } from "./plan.js";
+import { betaQuantile, ebhSoloThreshold, evidenceCeilingLogE, mcnemarSamplesForEvidence, samplesForEvidence, sprtExpectedN, } from "./stats.js";
+export const DEFAULT_AXES = {
+    cases: [10, 20, 50, 100, 200],
+    mdes: [0.1, 0.15, 0.25, 0.35],
+    baselineRuns: [30, 60, 120, 240, 480],
+    designs: ["unpaired", "paired"],
+    screens: ["none", "expensive", "proxy"],
+    screenRuns: [4, 8],
+};
+export const DEFAULT_FRONTIER = {
+    budgetUsd: 100,
+    basis: "typical",
+    costPerRunUsd: 1,
+    costPerGradeUsd: 0,
+    baselineRate: 0.85,
+    fdr: 0.05,
+    pairCoupling: DEFAULT_PLAN.pairCoupling,
+    amortisePrs: 100,
+    pairedBaselineRuns: 20,
+    screenKeepFraction: 0.15,
+    runsPerCaseCeiling: DEFAULT_PLAN.runsPerCaseCeiling,
+    screenRecall: { expensive: null, proxy: null },
+    screenRecallSource: "not measured",
+    alpha: DEFAULT_PLAN.alpha,
+    beta: DEFAULT_PLAN.beta,
+    minTrials: DEFAULT_PLAN.minTrials,
+    maxTrials: DEFAULT_PLAN.maxTrials,
+    batchSize: DEFAULT_PLAN.batchSize,
+    nullQuantile: DEFAULT_PLAN.nullQuantile,
+};
+const RUNS_PER_OBS = { unpaired: 1, paired: 2 };
+const SCREENS = ["none", "expensive", "proxy"];
+/** $1.00, but $0.0021 rather than $0.00, a per-run price rounds to nothing. */
+export const fmtRate = (x) => !Number.isFinite(x)
+    ? Number.isNaN(x)
+        ? "$?"
+        : "$∞"
+    : x >= 0.01 || x === 0
+        ? `$${x.toFixed(2)}`
+        : `$${x.toPrecision(2)}`;
+/** Cost of `runs` runs, all of them graded by the real grader. */
+const graded = (runs, cfg) => runs * (cfg.costPerRunUsd + cfg.costPerGradeUsd);
+function requireBaselineRuns(v, name, where) {
+    if (!Number.isInteger(v) || v < 1) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `${where}: ${name} must be a positive integer, got ${v}`, {
+            detail: { [name]: v, where },
+        });
+    }
+}
+/**
+ * The budget, the prices, the screen's keep fraction and `amortisePrs`.
+ * `enumerateFrontier` checked these and `evaluatePoint` did not, so a direct
+ * call recommended a point at a negative bill and priced a screen that kept
+ * twice the suite.
+ */
+function requirePricing(cfg, where) {
+    const finiteCost = (v) => Number.isFinite(v) && v >= 0;
+    if (!(cfg.budgetUsd >= 0) || !finiteCost(cfg.costPerRunUsd) || !finiteCost(cfg.costPerGradeUsd)) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `${where}: budget must be ≥ 0 and costs finite and ≥ 0`, {
+            detail: {
+                budgetUsd: cfg.budgetUsd,
+                costPerRunUsd: cfg.costPerRunUsd,
+                costPerGradeUsd: cfg.costPerGradeUsd,
+                where,
+            },
+            hint: "an infinite cost fits an infinite budget, so the frontier recommended a point on an infinite bill",
+        });
+    }
+    if (!(cfg.screenKeepFraction > 0) || !(cfg.screenKeepFraction <= 1)) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `${where}: screenKeepFraction must be in (0,1], got ${cfg.screenKeepFraction}`, {
+            detail: { screenKeepFraction: cfg.screenKeepFraction, where },
+        });
+    }
+    if (!Number.isInteger(cfg.amortisePrs) || cfg.amortisePrs < 1) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `${where}: amortisePrs must be a positive integer, got ${cfg.amortisePrs}`, {
+            detail: { amortisePrs: cfg.amortisePrs, where },
+            hint: 'a baseline spread over "infinity" pull requests is how the baseline cost disappears from a plan',
+        });
+    }
+}
+/**
+ * Observations per case on a pull request where nothing moved, clamped onto the
+ * gate's own batch grid.
+ */
+export function typicalObservationsPerCase(rate, mde, cfg, baselineRuns) {
+    // `makePlan` reaches this quantile through `baselineNullRate`, which refuses
+    // one outside (0,1). This handed it to `betaQuantile` directly, which answers
+    // 0 for a quantile at or below 0, 1 at or above 1, and about 0 for NaN, so the
+    // frontier priced the typical bill against a null rate nobody chose.
+    requireOpenProbability(cfg.nullQuantile, "nullQuantile", "typicalObservationsPerCase");
+    requireTrialGrid(cfg, "typicalObservationsPerCase");
+    // Unchecked, an mde of 0 or below priced a bill for an effect nobody can detect, and a bad rate or run count was refused under betaQuantile's name.
+    requireOpenProbability(rate, "rate", "typicalObservationsPerCase");
+    requireOpenProbability(mde, "mde", "typicalObservationsPerCase");
+    requireBaselineRuns(baselineRuns, "baselineRuns", "typicalObservationsPerCase");
+    const s = Math.round(rate * baselineRuns);
+    const p0 = betaQuantile(1 + s, 1 + baselineRuns - s, cfg.nullQuantile);
+    const p1 = Math.max(0.005, p0 - mde);
+    const raw = sprtExpectedN(rate, p0, p1, cfg.alpha, cfg.beta);
+    const n = Number.isFinite(raw) && raw > 0
+        ? Math.min(cfg.maxTrials, Math.max(cfg.minTrials, Math.ceil(raw)))
+        : cfg.maxTrials;
+    const batched = cfg.minTrials + Math.ceil(Math.max(0, n - cfg.minTrials) / cfg.batchSize) * cfg.batchSize;
+    return Math.min(cfg.maxTrials, batched);
+}
+export function evaluatePoint(cases, mde, baselineRuns, design, screen, screenRunsPerCase, cfg) {
+    // Strictly open: an MDE of 0 means "detect a zero-point drop", which every
+    // design correctly refuses, but it refuses with a message about the evidence
+    // ceiling, which sends the reader looking for a baseline problem that is not
+    // there. Same for a baseline rate of 0 or 1.
+    requireOpenProbability(mde, "mde", "evaluatePoint");
+    requireOpenProbability(cfg.baselineRate, "baselineRate", "evaluatePoint");
+    // `makePlan` refuses these two and this did not, so one options object was a
+    // refusal through the planner and a priced frontier through here. Both end up
+    // in `sprtExpectedN`, which answers NaN or Infinity outside (0,1), and
+    // `typicalObservationsPerCase` reads either as "cannot price this" and falls
+    // back to the run ceiling.
+    requireErrorRates(cfg.alpha, cfg.beta, "evaluatePoint");
+    requireProbability(cfg.pairCoupling, "pairCoupling", "evaluatePoint");
+    requireOpenProbability(cfg.nullQuantile, "nullQuantile", "evaluatePoint");
+    requireSettleConfidence(cfg, "evaluatePoint");
+    // makePlan refuses it; unchecked, an fdr of 2 cut the bar and 0 was blamed on the ceiling.
+    requireOpenProbability(cfg.fdr, "fdr", "evaluatePoint");
+    requireRunCeiling(cfg.runsPerCaseCeiling, "evaluatePoint");
+    requirePricing(cfg, "evaluatePoint");
+    if (!Number.isInteger(cases) || cases < 1) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `frontier: cases must be a positive integer, got ${cases}`, {
+            detail: { cases },
+        });
+    }
+    // The paired design prices its baseline from this one, and 0 or 2.5 runs priced a cheaper frontier than any real baseline.
+    requireBaselineRuns(cfg.pairedBaselineRuns, "pairedBaselineRuns", "evaluatePoint");
+    requireBaselineRuns(baselineRuns, "baselineRuns", "evaluatePoint");
+    requireTrialGrid(cfg, "evaluatePoint");
+    // An unknown design fell through to the paired branch with no runs per observation and came back feasible on an infinite bill.
+    if (!Object.hasOwn(RUNS_PER_OBS, design)) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `frontier: design must be one of ${Object.keys(RUNS_PER_OBS).join(", ")}, got "${String(design)}"`, {
+            detail: { design },
+        });
+    }
+    // An unknown screen was priced and recommended as the expensive one.
+    if (!SCREENS.includes(screen)) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `frontier: screen must be one of ${SCREENS.join(", ")}, got "${String(screen)}"`, {
+            detail: { screen },
+        });
+    }
+    // Only null withholds a recommendation, so a NaN recall (0 of 0 regressions caught) recommended the screen.
+    for (const kind of ["expensive", "proxy"]) {
+        const recall = cfg.screenRecall[kind];
+        if (recall !== null)
+            requireProbability(recall, `screenRecall.${kind}`, "evaluatePoint");
+    }
+    if (screen !== "none" && (!Number.isInteger(screenRunsPerCase) || screenRunsPerCase < 1)) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `frontier: a ${screen} screen needs at least one run per case, got ${screenRunsPerCase}`, {
+            detail: { screen, screenRunsPerCase },
+        });
+    }
+    const rate = cfg.baselineRate;
+    const barLogE = Math.log(ebhSoloThreshold(cases, cfg.fdr));
+    // The baseline this design actually needs. The paired design's null is exact,
+    // so its stored baseline only tunes the stopping rule: a short one suffices,
+    // and pretending it needs the same n_b as the unpaired design would price a
+    // ceiling it never buys.
+    const effectiveBaselineRuns = design === "paired" ? cfg.pairedBaselineRuns : baselineRuns;
+    const s = Math.round(rate * effectiveBaselineRuns);
+    let ceilingLogE = null;
+    let certifyObservations;
+    let infeasibleBecause = null;
+    if (rate <= mde) {
+        infeasibleBecause =
+            `a case at ${(rate * 100).toFixed(0)}% cannot lose ${(mde * 100).toFixed(0)} points, ` +
+                "the effect is arithmetically impossible, not merely expensive";
+        certifyObservations = Infinity;
+    }
+    else if (design === "unpaired") {
+        const pTrue = Math.max(1e-6, Math.min(1 - 1e-6, rate - mde));
+        ceilingLogE = evidenceCeilingLogE(pTrue, s, effectiveBaselineRuns, mde);
+        certifyObservations = samplesForEvidence(pTrue, s, effectiveBaselineRuns, mde, barLogE, cfg.runsPerCaseCeiling * 8);
+        if (!Number.isFinite(certifyObservations)) {
+            infeasibleBecause =
+                `unpaired evidence ceiling e^${ceilingLogE.toFixed(1)} is below the bar e^${barLogE.toFixed(1)} ` +
+                    `at a ${effectiveBaselineRuns}-run baseline, no candidate budget certifies it`;
+        }
+    }
+    else {
+        const pairs = mcnemarSamplesForEvidence(rate, mde, cfg.pairCoupling, barLogE, cfg.runsPerCaseCeiling * 8);
+        certifyObservations = pairs;
+        if (!Number.isFinite(pairs)) {
+            infeasibleBecause = `paired: no number of pairs reaches the bar at ρ = ${cfg.pairCoupling.toFixed(2)}`;
+        }
+    }
+    const runsPerObs = RUNS_PER_OBS[design];
+    if (infeasibleBecause === null && certifyObservations * runsPerObs > cfg.runsPerCaseCeiling) {
+        infeasibleBecause =
+            `${Math.ceil(certifyObservations * runsPerObs)} runs for one case, past the ` +
+                `${cfg.runsPerCaseCeiling}-run per-case ceiling`;
+    }
+    const feasible = infeasibleBecause === null;
+    // A paired case counts the pairs `shouldStopPaired` takes to settle, as `makePlan` does; the SPRT figure ignores the coupling.
+    const typicalObservations = design === "paired"
+        ? expectedSettlePairs(rate, cfg.pairCoupling, mde, cfg)
+        : typicalObservationsPerCase(rate, mde, cfg, effectiveBaselineRuns);
+    const keep = screen === "none" ? cases : Math.max(1, Math.ceil(cases * cfg.screenKeepFraction));
+    // Screening runs are graded by whichever grader the screen uses. A proxy
+    // screen still *executes* the agent, it only skips the grade, so it saves
+    // `costPerGradeUsd` per screening run and not one cent more.
+    //
+    // And a screening *observation* costs `runsPerObs` runs, exactly as a test
+    // observation does, since a paired screen runs both arms too. Charging it one
+    // run an observation would understate it by 2×, in the direction that makes
+    // pairing look cheaper.
+    const screenRuns = screen === "none" ? 0 : cases * screenRunsPerCase * runsPerObs;
+    const screenUsd = screen === "none"
+        ? 0
+        : screen === "proxy"
+            ? screenRuns * cfg.costPerRunUsd
+            : graded(screenRuns, cfg);
+    // The baseline. Unpaired buys its ceiling here; paired does not.
+    const baselineRunsTotal = cases * effectiveBaselineRuns;
+    const baselineRunsAmortised = baselineRunsTotal / cfg.amortisePrs;
+    const baselineUsd = graded(baselineRunsAmortised, cfg);
+    const costFor = (obsPerCase) => {
+        const testRuns = Number.isFinite(obsPerCase) ? keep * obsPerCase * runsPerObs : Infinity;
+        const testUsd = Number.isFinite(testRuns) ? graded(testRuns, cfg) : Infinity;
+        return {
+            screenRuns,
+            screenUsd,
+            testRuns,
+            testUsd,
+            baselineRunsAmortised,
+            baselineUsd,
+            totalUsd: screenUsd + testUsd + baselineUsd,
+        };
+    };
+    const typical = costFor(typicalObservations);
+    const certifyAll = costFor(certifyObservations);
+    // The per-case cap this configuration would have to run under.
+    //
+    // `samplesForEvidence` can answer more runs than `cfg.maxTrials`, and a plan
+    // quoting those prices a design the configured cap never executes. So the cap
+    // is whatever this configuration *needs*, and `requiresMaxRuns` says so.
+    const capObservations = Number.isFinite(certifyObservations)
+        ? Math.max(cfg.maxTrials, Math.ceil(certifyObservations))
+        : cfg.maxTrials;
+    // The gate stops paying for a case at that cap, so this is a real upper
+    // bound rather than a scenario, and scenarios do not bound anything.
+    const ceiling = costFor(capObservations);
+    const screenRecall = screen === "none"
+        ? 1
+        : screen === "proxy"
+            ? cfg.screenRecall.proxy
+            : cfg.screenRecall.expensive;
+    // A lookup, not a `?:` chain with `typical` on the else branch. A typo'd
+    // basis silently selecting the cheapest bill is precisely the
+    // malformed-input-becomes-the-most-permissive-result failure this codebase
+    // keeps finding in itself.
+    const BILLS = {
+        typical,
+        "certify-all": certifyAll,
+        ceiling,
+    };
+    // `hasOwn`, as in `costShares`: `BILLS.toString` is inherited, so "toString" passed an `undefined` check.
+    if (!Object.hasOwn(BILLS, cfg.basis)) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `frontier: basis must be one of ${Object.keys(BILLS).join(", ")}, got "${String(cfg.basis)}"`, {
+            detail: { basis: cfg.basis },
+            hint: "an unrecognised basis silently defaulting to the cheaper bill is how a budget becomes fiction",
+        });
+    }
+    const basisCost = BILLS[cfg.basis];
+    const withinBudget = feasible && basisCost.totalUsd <= cfg.budgetUsd;
+    // Reportable and recommendable are different. A screen whose recall nobody
+    // measured is cheap in a way we cannot price, and a proxy screen at zero
+    // grading cost is cheaper than nothing at all, which is to say, it is not.
+    let caveat = null;
+    if (screen !== "none" && screenRecall === null) {
+        caveat = `the ${screen} screen's recall cost is unmeasured, it drops regressions at an unknown rate`;
+    }
+    else if (screen === "proxy" && cfg.costPerGradeUsd <= 0) {
+        caveat =
+            "a proxy screen saves only grading cost, and grading here is free, it buys nothing and costs recall";
+    }
+    return {
+        cases,
+        mde,
+        baselineRuns,
+        design,
+        screen,
+        screenRunsPerCase: screen === "none" ? 0 : screenRunsPerCase,
+        keep,
+        barLogE,
+        ceilingLogE,
+        feasible,
+        infeasibleBecause,
+        certifyObservations,
+        typicalObservations,
+        requiresMaxRuns: capObservations,
+        exceedsGateCap: capObservations > cfg.maxTrials,
+        typical,
+        certifyAll,
+        ceiling,
+        basisCostUsd: basisCost.totalUsd,
+        withinBudget,
+        screenRecall,
+        recommendable: withinBudget && caveat === null,
+        caveat,
+    };
+}
+/** Every point in the swept space, feasible or not. */
+export function enumerateFrontier(cfg, axes = DEFAULT_AXES) {
+    requirePricing(cfg, "frontier");
+    for (const [name, xs] of Object.entries(axes)) {
+        if (!Array.isArray(xs) || xs.length === 0) {
+            throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `frontier: axis "${name}" is empty, nothing to sweep`, {
+                detail: { axis: name },
+            });
+        }
+    }
+    const out = [];
+    for (const m of axes.cases) {
+        for (const mde of axes.mdes) {
+            for (const design of axes.designs) {
+                // The baseline axis is real for the unpaired design and a fiction for
+                // the paired one, which uses `pairedBaselineRuns` whatever this says.
+                // Sweeping it anyway would emit five identical paired rows and make the
+                // frontier look like it had five times the evidence it has.
+                const baselines = design === "paired" ? [cfg.pairedBaselineRuns] : axes.baselineRuns;
+                for (const nb of baselines) {
+                    for (const screen of axes.screens) {
+                        const ks = screen === "none" ? [0] : axes.screenRuns;
+                        for (const k of ks)
+                            out.push(evaluatePoint(m, mde, nb, design, screen, k, cfg));
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    return out;
+}
+/**
+ * A cell (m, δ) dominates (m', δ') when it covers at least as many cases and
+ * detects at least as small a drop, and is strictly better on one of them. The
+ * frontier is what survives.
+ */
+function paretoCells(cells) {
+    return cells.filter((a) => !cells.some((b) => b !== a && b.cases >= a.cases && b.mde <= a.mde && (b.cases > a.cases || b.mde < a.mde)));
+}
+export function computeFrontier(cfg, axes = DEFAULT_AXES) {
+    const points = enumerateFrontier(cfg, axes);
+    const feasible = points.filter((p) => p.feasible);
+    const affordable = points.filter((p) => p.recommendable);
+    const cheaper = (a, b) => a.basisCostUsd <= b.basisCostUsd ? a : b;
+    const byCell = new Map();
+    for (const p of affordable) {
+        const key = `${p.cases}|${p.mde}`;
+        const cur = byCell.get(key);
+        if (!cur)
+            byCell.set(key, { cases: p.cases, mde: p.mde, best: p, cheapestReported: null });
+        else
+            cur.best = cheaper(cur.best, p);
+    }
+    // For each cell on the frontier, also name the cheapest *reported* option, so
+    // an operator can see what the "unmeasured recall" rule cost them.
+    for (const cell of byCell.values()) {
+        const reported = points
+            .filter((p) => p.cases === cell.cases && p.mde === cell.mde && p.withinBudget)
+            .reduce((best, p) => (best === null ? p : cheaper(best, p)), null);
+        cell.cheapestReported =
+            reported && reported.basisCostUsd < cell.best.basisCostUsd ? reported : null;
+    }
+    const frontier = paretoCells([...byCell.values()]).sort((a, b) => b.cases - a.cases || a.mde - b.mde);
+    const cheapestFeasible = feasible.reduce((best, p) => (best === null || p.basisCostUsd < best.basisCostUsd ? p : best), null);
+    // The smallest budget at which *something* becomes recommendable. `caveat`
+    // is exactly the recommendable rule minus the budget test, so reusing it here
+    // means the headline and the recommendation cannot disagree about what counts.
+    const cleanFeasible = feasible.filter((p) => p.caveat === null);
+    const minimumViableBudgetUsd = cleanFeasible.length === 0 ? null : Math.min(...cleanFeasible.map((p) => p.basisCostUsd));
+    const headline = frontier.length === 0
+        ? minimumViableBudgetUsd === null
+            ? `nothing in the swept space is certifiable at ${(cfg.baselineRate * 100).toFixed(0)}% baseline rate, ` +
+                "every configuration is either arithmetically impossible or past the per-case run ceiling"
+            : `nothing fits $${cfg.budgetUsd.toFixed(2)} at ${fmtRate(cfg.costPerRunUsd)}/run on the ${cfg.basis} bill. ` +
+                `The cheapest certifiable configuration is $${minimumViableBudgetUsd.toFixed(2)} per pull request` +
+                (cheapestFeasible
+                    ? `, ${cheapestFeasible.cases} cases at ${(cheapestFeasible.mde * 100).toFixed(0)} points, ${cheapestFeasible.design}.`
+                    : ".")
+        : (() => {
+            const widest = frontier[0];
+            const tightest = [...frontier].sort((a, b) => a.mde - b.mde)[0];
+            return (`at ${fmtRate(cfg.costPerRunUsd)}/run and $${cfg.budgetUsd.toFixed(2)} a pull request (${cfg.basis} bill) you can certify ` +
+                `${widest.cases} cases at ${(widest.mde * 100).toFixed(0)} points ` +
+                `($${widest.best.basisCostUsd.toFixed(2)}, ${widest.best.design})` +
+                (tightest !== widest
+                    ? `, or ${tightest.cases} cases at ${(tightest.mde * 100).toFixed(0)} points ` +
+                        `($${tightest.best.basisCostUsd.toFixed(2)}, ${tightest.best.design})`
+                    : "") +
+                ".");
+        })();
+    return {
+        config: cfg,
+        axes,
+        points,
+        affordable,
+        frontier,
+        cheapestFeasible,
+        minimumViableBudgetUsd,
+        headline,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Where the money goes, for one configuration. Printed under the frontier
+ * because the shares are the actual finding: at coding-agent prices the
+ * unpaired design's amortised baseline is usually the largest line, and it is
+ * the one the README used to call free.
+ */
+export function costShares(p, basis = "typical") {
+    // A lookup and a refusal, for the same reason `evaluatePoint` uses one: this
+    // was a `?:` chain with `p.typical` on the else branch, so any basis it did
+    // not recognise was reported as the typical bill. `FrontierPoint` names the
+    // field `certifyAll` and the basis `certify-all`, so reaching for the field
+    // name is the obvious slip, and it put the baseline at 6.6% of the money
+    // where the certify-all bill puts it at 1.1%.
+    const BILLS = {
+        typical: p.typical,
+        "certify-all": p.certifyAll,
+        ceiling: p.ceiling,
+    };
+    // `hasOwn` rather than an `undefined` check: `BILLS['toString']` is inherited
+    // from Object.prototype, so it is not undefined and would slip through one.
+    if (!Object.hasOwn(BILLS, basis)) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `costShares: basis must be one of ${Object.keys(BILLS).join(", ")}, got "${String(basis)}"`, {
+            detail: { basis },
+            hint: "an unrecognised basis silently reporting the typical bill is how a cost breakdown describes a different plan than the one you asked about",
+        });
+    }
+    const cost = BILLS[basis];
+    const t = cost.totalUsd;
+    if (!(t > 0) || !Number.isFinite(t))
+        return { screen: 0, test: 0, baseline: 0 };
+    return {
+        screen: cost.screenUsd / t,
+        test: cost.testUsd / t,
+        baseline: cost.baselineUsd / t,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=frontier.js.map

package/dist/frontier.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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