peeksafe 0.0.0-stage → 0.1.0

package/dist/frontier.js

@@ -0,0 +1,460 @@
+/**
+ * frontier.ts: what *is* certifiable at coding-agent prices, and how.
+ *
+ * ## Why this module exists
+ *
+ * At $1 a run a 200-case suite at a 15-point MDE is $1,320 a pull request, so
+ * peeksafe is not a per-PR gate for a coding-agent benchmark at that size. That
+ * is true and it is half an answer. The other half, the one a
+ * buyer actually needs, is **which configurations *are* affordable**, and
+ * nobody had drawn it.
+ *
+ * A configuration is a point in five dimensions:
+ *
+ *     suite size m  ×  MDE δ  ×  design  ×  screening  ×  baseline runs n_b
+ *
+ * and it is usable only if it is *both* affordable and **certifiable**. Those
+ * are different constraints, and a plan that conflates them quotes the wrong
+ * numbers. Cheap is easy: run fewer cases. Cheap *and able to decide anything* is
+ * the hard part, because `evidenceCeilingLogE` says a case whose unpaired
+ * ceiling sits under the e-BH bar cannot be certified at any budget, and the
+ * bar `m/q` moves with the suite size, so shrinking the suite raises the
+ * ceiling's odds *and* lowers the bar at the same time. That interaction is not
+ * something you can eyeball.
+ *
+ * ## The cost model, and the term the plan was missing
+ *
+ * `plan.ts` prices an observation at one number, `costPerRunUsd`. That is wrong
+ * in two ways at coding-agent prices, and both matter:
+ *
+ *  1. **Grading is not free.** An LLM judge is a model call; a coding-agent
+ *     grader is a test suite in a container. So
+ *
+ *         cost(observation) = costPerRunUsd + costPerGradeUsd
+ *
+ *     and the second term is the *only* one a cheap proxy grader can reduce.
+ *     When `costPerGradeUsd` is 0, which is the default,
+ *     matching this package's own free graders, a proxy screen saves exactly
+ *     nothing, and this module says so instead of offering it as an economy.
+ *
+ *  2. **The baseline is not free either, and it is not amortised over
+ *     infinity.** The README calls the baseline "amortised, you pay it once on
+ *     main". At $0.002 a run that is a rounding error. At $1 a run, a 200-case
+ *     suite with a 240-run baseline is 48,000 runs, **$48,000**, and spread
+ *     over a hundred pull requests it is still $480 each, which is larger than
+ *     everything else in the bill put together. The unpaired design's evidence
+ *     ceiling is bought with baseline runs, so *the amortised baseline is the
+ *     dominant cost of the unpaired design at coding-agent prices*, and the
+ *     paired design's headline advantage is not variance reduction. It is that
+ *     it does not need to buy a ceiling.
+ *
+ * ## What this module will not do
+ *
+ * It will not recommend a screened configuration whose **recall cost has not
+ * been measured**. Screening is the largest cost lever available and it is paid
+ * for in missed regressions, which the caller supplies as `screenRecall`
+ * against planted ground truth, and until someone has, the honest price of a
+ * screened plan is unknown rather than low.
+ */
+import { PeeksafeError, requireErrorRates, requireOpenProbability, requireProbability, } from "./errors.js";
+import { DEFAULT_PLAN } from "./plan.js";
+import { betaQuantile, ebhSoloThreshold, evidenceCeilingLogE, mcnemarSamplesForEvidence, samplesForEvidence, sprtExpectedN, } from "./stats.js";
+export const DEFAULT_AXES = {
+    cases: [10, 20, 50, 100, 200],
+    mdes: [0.1, 0.15, 0.25, 0.35],
+    baselineRuns: [30, 60, 120, 240, 480],
+    designs: ["unpaired", "paired"],
+    screens: ["none", "expensive", "proxy"],
+    screenRuns: [4, 8],
+};
+export const DEFAULT_FRONTIER = {
+    budgetUsd: 100,
+    basis: "typical",
+    costPerRunUsd: 1,
+    costPerGradeUsd: 0,
+    baselineRate: 0.85,
+    fdr: 0.05,
+    pairCoupling: DEFAULT_PLAN.pairCoupling,
+    amortisePrs: 100,
+    pairedBaselineRuns: 20,
+    screenKeepFraction: 0.15,
+    runsPerCaseCeiling: DEFAULT_PLAN.runsPerCaseCeiling,
+    screenRecall: { expensive: null, proxy: null },
+    screenRecallSource: "not measured",
+    alpha: DEFAULT_PLAN.alpha,
+    beta: DEFAULT_PLAN.beta,
+    minTrials: DEFAULT_PLAN.minTrials,
+    maxTrials: DEFAULT_PLAN.maxTrials,
+    batchSize: DEFAULT_PLAN.batchSize,
+    nullQuantile: DEFAULT_PLAN.nullQuantile,
+};
+const RUNS_PER_OBS = { unpaired: 1, paired: 2 };
+/** $1.00, but $0.0021 rather than $0.00, a per-run price rounds to nothing. */
+export const fmtRate = (x) => !Number.isFinite(x)
+    ? Number.isNaN(x)
+        ? "$?"
+        : "$∞"
+    : x >= 0.01 || x === 0
+        ? `$${x.toFixed(2)}`
+        : `$${x.toPrecision(2)}`;
+/** Cost of `runs` runs, all of them graded by the real grader. */
+const graded = (runs, cfg) => runs * (cfg.costPerRunUsd + cfg.costPerGradeUsd);
+/**
+ * Observations per case on a pull request where nothing moved, clamped onto the
+ * gate's own batch grid.
+ */
+export function typicalObservationsPerCase(rate, mde, cfg, baselineRuns) {
+    // `makePlan` reaches this quantile through `baselineNullRate`, which refuses
+    // one outside (0,1). This handed it to `betaQuantile` directly, which answers
+    // 0 for a quantile at or below 0, 1 at or above 1, and about 0 for NaN, so the
+    // frontier priced the typical bill against a null rate nobody chose.
+    requireOpenProbability(cfg.nullQuantile, "nullQuantile", "typicalObservationsPerCase");
+    const s = Math.round(rate * baselineRuns);
+    const p0 = betaQuantile(1 + s, 1 + baselineRuns - s, cfg.nullQuantile);
+    const p1 = Math.max(0.005, p0 - mde);
+    const raw = sprtExpectedN(rate, p0, p1, cfg.alpha, cfg.beta);
+    const n = Number.isFinite(raw) && raw > 0
+        ? Math.min(cfg.maxTrials, Math.max(cfg.minTrials, Math.ceil(raw)))
+        : cfg.maxTrials;
+    const batched = cfg.minTrials + Math.ceil(Math.max(0, n - cfg.minTrials) / cfg.batchSize) * cfg.batchSize;
+    return Math.min(cfg.maxTrials, batched);
+}
+export function evaluatePoint(cases, mde, baselineRuns, design, screen, screenRunsPerCase, cfg) {
+    // Strictly open: an MDE of 0 means "detect a zero-point drop", which every
+    // design correctly refuses, but it refuses with a message about the evidence
+    // ceiling, which sends the reader looking for a baseline problem that is not
+    // there. Same for a baseline rate of 0 or 1.
+    requireOpenProbability(mde, "mde", "evaluatePoint");
+    requireOpenProbability(cfg.baselineRate, "baselineRate", "evaluatePoint");
+    // `makePlan` refuses these two and this did not, so one options object was a
+    // refusal through the planner and a priced frontier through here. Both end up
+    // in `sprtExpectedN`, which answers NaN or Infinity outside (0,1), and
+    // `typicalObservationsPerCase` reads either as "cannot price this" and falls
+    // back to the run ceiling.
+    requireErrorRates(cfg.alpha, cfg.beta, "evaluatePoint");
+    requireProbability(cfg.pairCoupling, "pairCoupling", "evaluatePoint");
+    requireOpenProbability(cfg.nullQuantile, "nullQuantile", "evaluatePoint");
+    if (!Number.isInteger(cases) || cases < 1) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `frontier: cases must be a positive integer, got ${cases}`, {
+            detail: { cases },
+        });
+    }
+    if (!Number.isInteger(baselineRuns) || baselineRuns < 1) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `frontier: baselineRuns must be a positive integer, got ${baselineRuns}`, {
+            detail: { baselineRuns },
+        });
+    }
+    if (!Number.isInteger(cfg.maxTrials) || cfg.maxTrials < 1 || cfg.maxTrials < cfg.minTrials) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `frontier: maxTrials must be a positive integer ≥ minTrials, got ${cfg.maxTrials} vs ${cfg.minTrials}`, {
+            detail: { maxTrials: cfg.maxTrials, minTrials: cfg.minTrials },
+            hint: "the ceiling bill is priced at this cap; a cap of zero prices a gate that never runs",
+        });
+    }
+    if (screen !== "none" && (!Number.isInteger(screenRunsPerCase) || screenRunsPerCase < 1)) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `frontier: a ${screen} screen needs at least one run per case, got ${screenRunsPerCase}`, {
+            detail: { screen, screenRunsPerCase },
+        });
+    }
+    const rate = cfg.baselineRate;
+    const barLogE = Math.log(ebhSoloThreshold(cases, cfg.fdr));
+    // The baseline this design actually needs. The paired design's null is exact,
+    // so its stored baseline only tunes the stopping rule: a short one suffices,
+    // and pretending it needs the same n_b as the unpaired design would price a
+    // ceiling it never buys.
+    const effectiveBaselineRuns = design === "paired" ? cfg.pairedBaselineRuns : baselineRuns;
+    const s = Math.round(rate * effectiveBaselineRuns);
+    let ceilingLogE = null;
+    let certifyObservations;
+    let infeasibleBecause = null;
+    if (rate <= mde) {
+        infeasibleBecause =
+            `a case at ${(rate * 100).toFixed(0)}% cannot lose ${(mde * 100).toFixed(0)} points, ` +
+                "the effect is arithmetically impossible, not merely expensive";
+        certifyObservations = Infinity;
+    }
+    else if (design === "unpaired") {
+        const pTrue = Math.max(1e-6, Math.min(1 - 1e-6, rate - mde));
+        ceilingLogE = evidenceCeilingLogE(pTrue, s, effectiveBaselineRuns, mde);
+        certifyObservations = samplesForEvidence(pTrue, s, effectiveBaselineRuns, mde, barLogE, cfg.runsPerCaseCeiling * 8);
+        if (!Number.isFinite(certifyObservations)) {
+            infeasibleBecause =
+                `unpaired evidence ceiling e^${ceilingLogE.toFixed(1)} is below the bar e^${barLogE.toFixed(1)} ` +
+                    `at a ${effectiveBaselineRuns}-run baseline, no candidate budget certifies it`;
+        }
+    }
+    else {
+        const pairs = mcnemarSamplesForEvidence(rate, mde, cfg.pairCoupling, barLogE, cfg.runsPerCaseCeiling * 8);
+        certifyObservations = pairs;
+        if (!Number.isFinite(pairs)) {
+            infeasibleBecause = `paired: no number of pairs reaches the bar at ρ = ${cfg.pairCoupling.toFixed(2)}`;
+        }
+    }
+    const runsPerObs = RUNS_PER_OBS[design];
+    if (infeasibleBecause === null && certifyObservations * runsPerObs > cfg.runsPerCaseCeiling) {
+        infeasibleBecause =
+            `${Math.ceil(certifyObservations * runsPerObs)} runs for one case, past the ` +
+                `${cfg.runsPerCaseCeiling}-run per-case ceiling`;
+    }
+    const feasible = infeasibleBecause === null;
+    const typicalObservations = typicalObservationsPerCase(rate, mde, cfg, effectiveBaselineRuns);
+    const keep = screen === "none" ? cases : Math.max(1, Math.ceil(cases * cfg.screenKeepFraction));
+    // Screening runs are graded by whichever grader the screen uses. A proxy
+    // screen still *executes* the agent, it only skips the grade, so it saves
+    // `costPerGradeUsd` per screening run and not one cent more.
+    //
+    // And a screening *observation* costs `runsPerObs` runs, exactly as a test
+    // observation does, since a paired screen runs both arms too. Charging it one
+    // run an observation would understate it by 2×, in the direction that makes
+    // pairing look cheaper.
+    const screenRuns = screen === "none" ? 0 : cases * screenRunsPerCase * runsPerObs;
+    const screenUsd = screen === "none"
+        ? 0
+        : screen === "proxy"
+            ? screenRuns * cfg.costPerRunUsd
+            : graded(screenRuns, cfg);
+    // The baseline. Unpaired buys its ceiling here; paired does not.
+    const baselineRunsTotal = cases * effectiveBaselineRuns;
+    const baselineRunsAmortised = baselineRunsTotal / Math.max(1, cfg.amortisePrs);
+    const baselineUsd = graded(baselineRunsAmortised, cfg);
+    const costFor = (obsPerCase) => {
+        const testRuns = Number.isFinite(obsPerCase) ? keep * obsPerCase * runsPerObs : Infinity;
+        const testUsd = Number.isFinite(testRuns) ? graded(testRuns, cfg) : Infinity;
+        return {
+            screenRuns,
+            screenUsd,
+            testRuns,
+            testUsd,
+            baselineRunsAmortised,
+            baselineUsd,
+            totalUsd: screenUsd + testUsd + baselineUsd,
+        };
+    };
+    const typical = costFor(typicalObservations);
+    const certifyAll = costFor(certifyObservations);
+    // The per-case cap this configuration would have to run under.
+    //
+    // `samplesForEvidence` can answer more runs than `cfg.maxTrials`, and a plan
+    // quoting those prices a design the configured cap never executes. So the cap
+    // is whatever this configuration *needs*, and `requiresMaxRuns` says so.
+    const capObservations = Number.isFinite(certifyObservations)
+        ? Math.max(cfg.maxTrials, Math.ceil(certifyObservations))
+        : cfg.maxTrials;
+    // The gate stops paying for a case at that cap, so this is a real upper
+    // bound rather than a scenario, and scenarios do not bound anything.
+    const ceiling = costFor(capObservations);
+    const screenRecall = screen === "none"
+        ? 1
+        : screen === "proxy"
+            ? cfg.screenRecall.proxy
+            : cfg.screenRecall.expensive;
+    // A lookup, not a `?:` chain with `typical` on the else branch. A typo'd
+    // basis silently selecting the cheapest bill is precisely the
+    // malformed-input-becomes-the-most-permissive-result failure this codebase
+    // keeps finding in itself.
+    const BILLS = {
+        typical,
+        "certify-all": certifyAll,
+        ceiling,
+    };
+    const basisCost = BILLS[cfg.basis];
+    if (basisCost === undefined) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `frontier: basis must be one of ${Object.keys(BILLS).join(", ")}, got "${String(cfg.basis)}"`, {
+            detail: { basis: cfg.basis },
+            hint: "an unrecognised basis silently defaulting to the cheaper bill is how a budget becomes fiction",
+        });
+    }
+    const withinBudget = feasible && basisCost.totalUsd <= cfg.budgetUsd;
+    // Reportable and recommendable are different. A screen whose recall nobody
+    // measured is cheap in a way we cannot price, and a proxy screen at zero
+    // grading cost is cheaper than nothing at all, which is to say, it is not.
+    let caveat = null;
+    if (screen !== "none" && screenRecall === null) {
+        caveat = `the ${screen} screen's recall cost is unmeasured, it drops regressions at an unknown rate`;
+    }
+    else if (screen === "proxy" && cfg.costPerGradeUsd <= 0) {
+        caveat =
+            "a proxy screen saves only grading cost, and grading here is free, it buys nothing and costs recall";
+    }
+    return {
+        cases,
+        mde,
+        baselineRuns,
+        design,
+        screen,
+        screenRunsPerCase: screen === "none" ? 0 : screenRunsPerCase,
+        keep,
+        barLogE,
+        ceilingLogE,
+        feasible,
+        infeasibleBecause,
+        certifyObservations,
+        typicalObservations,
+        requiresMaxRuns: capObservations,
+        exceedsGateCap: capObservations > cfg.maxTrials,
+        typical,
+        certifyAll,
+        ceiling,
+        basisCostUsd: basisCost.totalUsd,
+        withinBudget,
+        screenRecall,
+        recommendable: withinBudget && caveat === null,
+        caveat,
+    };
+}
+/** Every point in the swept space, feasible or not. */
+export function enumerateFrontier(cfg, axes = DEFAULT_AXES) {
+    if (!(cfg.budgetUsd >= 0) || !(cfg.costPerRunUsd >= 0) || !(cfg.costPerGradeUsd >= 0)) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", "frontier: budget and costs must be ≥ 0 and not NaN", {
+            detail: {
+                budgetUsd: cfg.budgetUsd,
+                costPerRunUsd: cfg.costPerRunUsd,
+                costPerGradeUsd: cfg.costPerGradeUsd,
+            },
+        });
+    }
+    if (!(cfg.screenKeepFraction > 0) || !(cfg.screenKeepFraction <= 1)) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `frontier: screenKeepFraction must be in (0,1], got ${cfg.screenKeepFraction}`, {
+            detail: { screenKeepFraction: cfg.screenKeepFraction },
+        });
+    }
+    if (!Number.isInteger(cfg.amortisePrs) || cfg.amortisePrs < 1) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `frontier: amortisePrs must be a positive integer, got ${cfg.amortisePrs}`, {
+            detail: { amortisePrs: cfg.amortisePrs },
+            hint: 'a baseline spread over "infinity" pull requests is how the baseline cost disappears from a plan',
+        });
+    }
+    for (const [name, xs] of Object.entries(axes)) {
+        if (!Array.isArray(xs) || xs.length === 0) {
+            throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `frontier: axis "${name}" is empty, nothing to sweep`, {
+                detail: { axis: name },
+            });
+        }
+    }
+    const out = [];
+    for (const m of axes.cases) {
+        for (const mde of axes.mdes) {
+            for (const design of axes.designs) {
+                // The baseline axis is real for the unpaired design and a fiction for
+                // the paired one, which uses `pairedBaselineRuns` whatever this says.
+                // Sweeping it anyway would emit five identical paired rows and make the
+                // frontier look like it had five times the evidence it has.
+                const baselines = design === "paired" ? [cfg.pairedBaselineRuns] : axes.baselineRuns;
+                for (const nb of baselines) {
+                    for (const screen of axes.screens) {
+                        const ks = screen === "none" ? [0] : axes.screenRuns;
+                        for (const k of ks)
+                            out.push(evaluatePoint(m, mde, nb, design, screen, k, cfg));
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    return out;
+}
+/**
+ * A cell (m, δ) dominates (m', δ') when it covers at least as many cases and
+ * detects at least as small a drop, and is strictly better on one of them. The
+ * frontier is what survives.
+ */
+function paretoCells(cells) {
+    return cells.filter((a) => !cells.some((b) => b !== a && b.cases >= a.cases && b.mde <= a.mde && (b.cases > a.cases || b.mde < a.mde)));
+}
+export function computeFrontier(cfg, axes = DEFAULT_AXES) {
+    const points = enumerateFrontier(cfg, axes);
+    const feasible = points.filter((p) => p.feasible);
+    const affordable = points.filter((p) => p.recommendable);
+    const cheaper = (a, b) => a.basisCostUsd <= b.basisCostUsd ? a : b;
+    const byCell = new Map();
+    for (const p of affordable) {
+        const key = `${p.cases}|${p.mde}`;
+        const cur = byCell.get(key);
+        if (!cur)
+            byCell.set(key, { cases: p.cases, mde: p.mde, best: p, cheapestReported: null });
+        else
+            cur.best = cheaper(cur.best, p);
+    }
+    // For each cell on the frontier, also name the cheapest *reported* option, so
+    // an operator can see what the "unmeasured recall" rule cost them.
+    for (const cell of byCell.values()) {
+        const reported = points
+            .filter((p) => p.cases === cell.cases && p.mde === cell.mde && p.withinBudget)
+            .reduce((best, p) => (best === null ? p : cheaper(best, p)), null);
+        cell.cheapestReported =
+            reported && reported.basisCostUsd < cell.best.basisCostUsd ? reported : null;
+    }
+    const frontier = paretoCells([...byCell.values()]).sort((a, b) => b.cases - a.cases || a.mde - b.mde);
+    const cheapestFeasible = feasible.reduce((best, p) => (best === null || p.basisCostUsd < best.basisCostUsd ? p : best), null);
+    // The smallest budget at which *something* becomes recommendable. `caveat`
+    // is exactly the recommendable rule minus the budget test, so reusing it here
+    // means the headline and the recommendation cannot disagree about what counts.
+    const cleanFeasible = feasible.filter((p) => p.caveat === null);
+    const minimumViableBudgetUsd = cleanFeasible.length === 0 ? null : Math.min(...cleanFeasible.map((p) => p.basisCostUsd));
+    const headline = frontier.length === 0
+        ? minimumViableBudgetUsd === null
+            ? `nothing in the swept space is certifiable at ${(cfg.baselineRate * 100).toFixed(0)}% baseline rate, ` +
+                "every configuration is either arithmetically impossible or past the per-case run ceiling"
+            : `nothing fits $${cfg.budgetUsd.toFixed(2)} at ${fmtRate(cfg.costPerRunUsd)}/run on the ${cfg.basis} bill. ` +
+                `The cheapest certifiable configuration is $${minimumViableBudgetUsd.toFixed(2)} per pull request` +
+                (cheapestFeasible
+                    ? `, ${cheapestFeasible.cases} cases at ${(cheapestFeasible.mde * 100).toFixed(0)} points, ${cheapestFeasible.design}.`
+                    : ".")
+        : (() => {
+            const widest = frontier[0];
+            const tightest = [...frontier].sort((a, b) => a.mde - b.mde)[0];
+            return (`at ${fmtRate(cfg.costPerRunUsd)}/run and $${cfg.budgetUsd.toFixed(2)} a pull request (${cfg.basis} bill) you can certify ` +
+                `${widest.cases} cases at ${(widest.mde * 100).toFixed(0)} points ` +
+                `($${widest.best.basisCostUsd.toFixed(2)}, ${widest.best.design})` +
+                (tightest !== widest
+                    ? `, or ${tightest.cases} cases at ${(tightest.mde * 100).toFixed(0)} points ` +
+                        `($${tightest.best.basisCostUsd.toFixed(2)}, ${tightest.best.design})`
+                    : "") +
+                ".");
+        })();
+    return {
+        config: cfg,
+        axes,
+        points,
+        affordable,
+        frontier,
+        cheapestFeasible,
+        minimumViableBudgetUsd,
+        headline,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Where the money goes, for one configuration. Printed under the frontier
+ * because the shares are the actual finding: at coding-agent prices the
+ * unpaired design's amortised baseline is usually the largest line, and it is
+ * the one the README used to call free.
+ */
+export function costShares(p, basis = "typical") {
+    // A lookup and a refusal, for the same reason `evaluatePoint` uses one: this
+    // was a `?:` chain with `p.typical` on the else branch, so any basis it did
+    // not recognise was reported as the typical bill. `FrontierPoint` names the
+    // field `certifyAll` and the basis `certify-all`, so reaching for the field
+    // name is the obvious slip, and it put the baseline at 6.6% of the money
+    // where the certify-all bill puts it at 1.1%.
+    const BILLS = {
+        typical: p.typical,
+        "certify-all": p.certifyAll,
+        ceiling: p.ceiling,
+    };
+    // `hasOwn` rather than an `undefined` check: `BILLS['toString']` is inherited
+    // from Object.prototype, so it is not undefined and would slip through one.
+    if (!Object.hasOwn(BILLS, basis)) {
+        throw new PeeksafeError("PEEKSAFE_E_CONFIG", `costShares: basis must be one of ${Object.keys(BILLS).join(", ")}, got "${String(basis)}"`, {
+            detail: { basis },
+            hint: "an unrecognised basis silently reporting the typical bill is how a cost breakdown describes a different plan than the one you asked about",
+        });
+    }
+    const cost = BILLS[basis];
+    const t = cost.totalUsd;
+    if (!(t > 0) || !Number.isFinite(t))
+        return { screen: 0, test: 0, baseline: 0 };
+    return {
+        screen: cost.screenUsd / t,
+        test: cost.testUsd / t,
+        baseline: cost.baselineUsd / t,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=frontier.js.map

package/dist/frontier.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/gate.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,173 @@
+/**
+ * gate.ts: the decision.
+ *
+ * You bring counts. This decides which cases regressed, at a false discovery
+ * rate you name, in a way that stays valid however many times you looked at the
+ * data on the way here.
+ *
+ * ## Why this is safe to peek at
+ *
+ * The usual construction is: run the suite, stop a case when it looks
+ * significant, compute a p-value from the counts, hand the p-values to
+ * Benjamini-Hochberg. That is invalid in two independent places.
+ *
+ * A p-value computed at a stopping boundary is not a p-value. `P(p_n <= a) <= a`
+ * holds for each fixed `n`; a procedure that adds runs and re-tests until the
+ * result looks significant reports `min` over the peeks, and that minimum is not
+ * bounded by `a`. Benjamini-Hochberg takes `P(p <= t) <= t` as its input
+ * assumption, so it inherits nothing and controls nothing.
+ *
+ * This module never computes a p-value. It computes an e-value, which is a
+ * non-negative statistic with mean at most 1 under the null. Ville's inequality
+ * bounds `P(sup_n E_n >= 1/a) <= a` over the whole trajectory, so an e-value is
+ * valid at any stopping time, including one chosen after looking. (The mean is
+ * exactly 1 averaged over the shared rate, not at every fixed rate; the README
+ * section "What that guarantee rests on" says where the bound is checked.) The
+ * multiplicity correction is e-BH (Wang and Ramdas), which takes e-values
+ * directly and controls FDR under arbitrary dependence between cases.
+ *
+ * The practical consequence: you may stop a case whenever you like, for any
+ * reason, including "it already looks bad". Nothing here cares when you stopped.
+ *
+ * ## What it will refuse to do
+ *
+ * Gate a case with no baseline. There is no null to test against, and the
+ * failure mode of inventing one is not a wrong number, it is a confident wrong
+ * number: a missing baseline read as `0/0` has a Beta(1,1) posterior median of
+ * 0.5, which gates the case against "it passes half the time" and reports a
+ * large improvement against nothing at all. Cases without a baseline come back
+ * in `newCases` and take no part in the verdict or the e-BH family.
+ *
+ * ## Paired cases
+ *
+ * A case may instead carry `paired` counts from re-running the baseline next to
+ * the candidate, one baseline run per candidate run. Its e-value is
+ * `pairedLogE` on the discordant pairs, which is valid at every rate by
+ * construction and has no ceiling, whichever `evidence` the unpaired cases use.
+ * The pairs need not share a seed: independent runs paired in order are still
+ * valid, and a shared seed only makes discordances more informative.
+ */
+import type { BaselineStat } from "./baseline.js";
+import { type Evidence } from "./evidence.js";
+import { type PairedCounts } from "./stats.js";
+/**
+ * True when the baseline's observed rate leaves no room for an `mde`-sized drop.
+ * `makePlan` calls the same cases IMPOSSIBLE, by the same rule.
+ */
+export declare const cannotDropBy: (baseline: {
+    successes: number;
+    trials: number;
+}, mde: number) => boolean;
+/** One case's candidate result, and the baseline it is measured against. */
+export interface GateCase {
+    id: string;
+    /** Successes observed for the revision under test. */
+    successes: number;
+    /** Trials run for the revision under test. Stop whenever you like. */
+    trials: number;
+    /** The reference revision's recorded counts, or undefined if there are none. */
+    baseline?: BaselineStat;
+    paired?: undefined;
+}
+/** One case run as pairs: each candidate run next to a fresh baseline run. */
+export interface PairedGateCase {
+    id: string;
+    /** The pair table so far. Stop whenever you like. */
+    paired: PairedCounts;
+}
+export interface GateOptions {
+    /** Minimum detectable effect: the drop, in rate, that counts as a regression. */
+    mde?: number;
+    /** Target false discovery rate across the suite. */
+    fdr?: number;
+    /**
+     * Concentration of the alternative prior. Lower spreads the alternative over
+     * "anything materially worse", which is closer to how a broken case behaves
+     * than a point mass exactly `mde` below the baseline. At most
+     * `MAX_ALT_CONCENTRATION` (16) with the default `bayes` statistic.
+     */
+    altConcentration?: number;
+    /**
+     * Which e-value decides. `bayes` has more power and error control checked
+     * numerically; `universal` is valid at every rate by construction and needs
+     * more runs. See the README section "What that guarantee rests on".
+     */
+    evidence?: Evidence;
+}
+export declare const DEFAULT_GATE_OPTIONS: {
+    readonly mde: 0.15;
+    readonly fdr: 0.05;
+    readonly altConcentration: 8;
+    readonly evidence: "bayes";
+};
+export interface CaseVerdict {
+    id: string;
+    /** True when e-BH certifies this case as regressed at the suite's FDR. */
+    regressed: boolean;
+    /** The e-value. Larger is more evidence against the null. */
+    evalue: number;
+    /** log of the above, which is what the arithmetic actually uses. */
+    logE: number;
+    /**
+     * The largest e-value this case could ever reach against its current
+     * baseline, however many candidate runs you add. When this is below
+     * `threshold`, the case is undetectable at any candidate budget and the only
+     * remedy is more baseline runs.
+     */
+    ceiling: number;
+    /** True when `ceiling` is below the bar the case has to clear. */
+    undetectable: boolean;
+    /**
+     * True when the baseline rate is at or below `mde`, so an `mde`-sized drop
+     * cannot happen. The case is not tested: its e-value is fixed at 1, which
+     * keeps it in the e-BH family without it ever being certified.
+     */
+    impossible: boolean;
+    /** For a paired case, each arm's passes over the number of pairs. */
+    observed: {
+        successes: number;
+        trials: number;
+    };
+    baseline: {
+        successes: number;
+        trials: number;
+    };
+    design: "unpaired" | "paired";
+    /** The pair table, for a paired case. */
+    paired?: PairedCounts;
+}
+export interface GateResult {
+    /** PASS when nothing was certified as regressed. */
+    verdict: "PASS" | "FAIL";
+    cases: CaseVerdict[];
+    /** Cases certified as regressed, in the order given. */
+    regressed: CaseVerdict[];
+    /**
+     * Cases with no baseline. These are reported, not gated: they have no null to
+     * be tested against and they are excluded from the e-BH family.
+     */
+    newCases: string[];
+    /** The e-value a case had to beat, given how many discoveries were made. */
+    threshold: number;
+    /** The e-value a case must reach to be certified whatever the others do. */
+    soloThreshold: number;
+    options: Required<GateOptions>;
+    /**
+     * One line an operator can read without knowing what an e-value is.
+     *
+     * Names the two things a passing suite can hide: cases with no baseline,
+     * which were not gated at all, and cases whose baseline is too thin to
+     * certify an `mde`-sized drop however many runs you add. A PASS that is
+     * really "nothing was checked" should not read like a PASS.
+     */
+    headline: string;
+}
+/**
+ * Decide which cases regressed.
+ *
+ * Valid at any stopping time. Run every case to a fixed count, or stop each one
+ * the moment it looks decided, or anything in between; the guarantee does not
+ * depend on the rule you used.
+ */
+export declare function gate(cases: readonly (GateCase | PairedGateCase)[], options?: GateOptions): GateResult;
+//# sourceMappingURL=gate.d.ts.map