oracular 0.10.0 → 0.11.0

package/dist/index.js

@@ -77,8 +77,8 @@ function lowerBound(alpha, beta, z, bound) {
 function repeatFactor(n) {
   return Math.log1p(1 / n) / Math.LN2;
 }
-function laplace(successes, total) {
-  return (successes + 1) / (total + 2);
+function smoothRate(successes, total, rate) {
+  return (successes + 2 * rate) / (total + 2);
 }
 function lift(q, b, type = "normalized-difference") {
   if (type === "absolute-difference") return q - b;
@@ -152,12 +152,13 @@ function signalWeights(state, intent, learning, signal) {
   }
   const record2 = getOwn(state.learned, signal) ?? NONE;
   const nWith = record2.hits + record2.misses;
-  const qWith = laplace(record2.hits, nWith);
   const totalEpisodes = state.episodes.hits + state.episodes.misses;
   const nWithout = Math.max(0, totalEpisodes - nWith);
   const outcomesWithout = Math.min(nWithout, Math.max(0, state.episodes.hits - record2.hits));
-  const qWithout = laplace(outcomesWithout, nWithout);
-  const baseline = learning.lift === "association-rule" ? (record2.hits + outcomesWithout + 2) / (nWith + nWithout + 4) : qWithout;
+  const base = totalEpisodes === 0 ? 0 : state.episodes.hits / totalEpisodes;
+  const qWith = smoothRate(record2.hits, nWith, base);
+  const qWithout = smoothRate(outcomesWithout, nWithout, base);
+  const baseline = learning.lift === "association-rule" ? smoothRate(record2.hits + outcomesWithout, nWith + nWithout, base) : qWithout;
   const score = learningScore(lift(qWith, baseline, learning.lift), learning.lift);
   const learned = nWith === 0 ? 0 : learning.gain * Math.abs(initial) * score;
   const nEff = nWith + nWithout === 0 ? 0 : nWith * nWithout / (nWith + nWithout);