oracular 0.0.1 → 0.1.1

package/dist/index.cjs.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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'./types';\nimport { isRecord } from './util';\n\nexport const DEFAULT_THRESHOLD = 0.5;\nexport const DEFAULT_Z = 1.28;\nexport const DEFAULT_GAIN = 2;\nexport const DEFAULT_PRIOR_EPISODES = 10;\n\nconst CONFIG_KEYS = ['intents', 'episodeTimeout', 'learning', 'reveal'] as const;\nconst INTENT_KEYS = [\n  'prior',\n  'priorStrength',\n  'halfLife',\n  'signals',\n  'outcome',\n  'resetOnOutcome',\n  'reveal',\n] as const;\nconst REVEAL_KEYS = ['threshold', 'z', 'cooldown'] as const;\nconst LEARNING_KEYS = ['halfLife', 'gain', 'priorEpisodes'] as const;\n\nfunction typeError(path: string, message: string): never {\n  throw new TypeError(`oracular: ${path} ${message}`);\n}\n\nfunction rangeError(path: string, message: string): never {\n  throw new RangeError(`oracular: ${path} ${message}`);\n}\n\nfunction expectRecord(value: unknown, path: string): Record<string, unknown> {\n  if (!isRecord(value)) typeError(path, 'must be a plain object');\n  return value;\n}\n\nfunction expectKeys(\n  record: Record<string, unknown>,\n  allowed: readonly string[],\n  path: string,\n): void {\n  for (const key of Object.keys(record)) {\n    if (!allowed.includes(key)) {\n      typeError(\n        `${path}.${key}`,\n        `is not a recognised option (expected one of: ${allowed.join(', ')})`,\n      );\n    }\n  }\n}\n\nfunction expectNumber(value: unknown, path: string): number {\n  if (typeof value !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(value))\n    typeError(path, 'must be a finite number');\n  return value;\n}\n\nfunction expectPositive(value: unknown, path: string): number {\n  const n = expectNumber(value, path);\n  if (n <= 0) rangeError(path, 'must be greater than 0');\n  return n;\n}\n\nfunction expectNonNegative(value: unknown, path: string): number {\n  const n = expectNumber(value, path);\n  if (n < 0) rangeError(path, 'must be 0 or greater');\n  return n;\n}\n\nfunction expectOpenUnit(value: unknown, path: string): number {\n  const n = expectNumber(value, path);\n  if (n <= 0 || n >= 1) rangeError(path, 'must be strictly between 0 and 1');\n  return n;\n}\n\nfunction expectClosedUnit(value: unknown, path: string): number {\n  const n = expectNumber(value, path);\n  if (n < 0 || n > 1) rangeError(path, 'must be between 0 and 1');\n  return n;\n}\n\nexport function expectName(value: unknown, path: string): string {\n  if (typeof value !== 'string' || value.length === 0)\n    typeError(path, 'must be a non-empty string');\n  return value;\n}\n\n/** Keys of user-named records must be usable as own properties of a plain object. */\nfunction expectKeyName(name: string, path: string): string {\n  if (name.length === 0) typeError(path, 'names must be non-empty strings');\n  if (name === '__proto__') typeError(path, 'must not use the reserved name \"__proto__\"');\n  return name;\n}\n\n/** Validates reveal options and returns a copy with only the defined keys. */\nexport function normalizeRevealOptions(value: unknown, path: string): RevealOptions {\n  const record = expectRecord(value, path);\n  expectKeys(record, REVEAL_KEYS, path);\n  const out: RevealOptions = {};\n  if (record.threshold !== undefined) {\n    out.threshold = expectClosedUnit(record.threshold, `${path}.threshold`);\n  }\n  if (record.z !== undefined) out.z = expectNonNegative(record.z, `${path}.z`);\n  if (record.cooldown !== undefined) {\n    out.cooldown = expectNonNegative(record.cooldown, `${path}.cooldown`);\n  }\n  return out;\n}\n\nfunction normalizeLearning(value: unknown, path: string): LearningConfig {\n  const record = expectRecord(value, path);\n  expectKeys(record, LEARNING_KEYS, path);\n  const out: LearningConfig = {};\n  if (record.halfLife !== undefined)\n    out.halfLife = expectPositive(record.halfLife, `${path}.halfLife`);\n  if (record.gain !== undefined) out.gain = expectPositive(record.gain, `${path}.gain`);\n  if (record.priorEpisodes !== undefined) {\n    out.priorEpisodes = expectPositive(record.priorEpisodes, `${path}.priorEpisodes`);\n  }\n  return out;\n}\n\nfunction normalizeIntent(value: unknown, path: string): IntentConfig {\n  const record = expectRecord(value, path);\n  expectKeys(record, INTENT_KEYS, path);\n  const signalsRecord = expectRecord(record.signals, `${path}.signals`);\n  const signals: Record<string, number> = {};\n  for (const [name, weight] of Object.entries(signalsRecord)) {\n    expectKeyName(name, `${path}.signals`);\n    const w = expectNumber(weight, `${path}.signals[${JSON.stringify(name)}]`);\n    if (w === 0) {\n      rangeError(\n        `${path}.signals[${JSON.stringify(name)}]`,\n        'must be non-zero (positive is evidence for the intent, negative is evidence against)',\n      );\n    }\n    signals[name] = w;\n  }\n  const out: IntentConfig = {\n    prior: expectOpenUnit(record.prior, `${path}.prior`),\n    priorStrength: expectPositive(record.priorStrength, `${path}.priorStrength`),\n    halfLife: expectPositive(record.halfLife, `${path}.halfLife`),\n    signals,\n  };\n  if (record.outcome !== undefined) out.outcome = expectName(record.outcome, `${path}.outcome`);\n  if (record.resetOnOutcome !== undefined) {\n    if (typeof record.resetOnOutcome !== 'boolean') {\n      typeError(`${path}.resetOnOutcome`, 'must be a boolean');\n    }\n    out.resetOnOutcome = record.resetOnOutcome;\n  }\n  if (record.reveal !== undefined)\n    out.reveal = normalizeRevealOptions(record.reveal, `${path}.reveal`);\n  return out;\n}\n\n/**\n * Validates a config and returns a fresh copy holding only the defined, recognised keys,\n * so that it survives a JSON round trip unchanged.\n */\nexport function normalizeConfig(value: unknown): EngineConfig {\n  const record = expectRecord(value, 'config');\n  expectKeys(record, CONFIG_KEYS, 'config');\n  const intentsRecord = expectRecord(record.intents, 'config.intents');\n  const names = Object.keys(intentsRecord);\n  if (names.length === 0) typeError('config.intents', 'must declare at least one intent');\n  const intents: Record<string, IntentConfig> = {};\n  for (const name of names) {\n    expectKeyName(name, 'config.intents');\n    intents[name] = normalizeIntent(intentsRecord[name], `config.intents[${JSON.stringify(name)}]`);\n  }\n  const out: EngineConfig = { intents };\n  if (record.episodeTimeout !== undefined) {\n    out.episodeTimeout = expectPositive(record.episodeTimeout, 'config.episodeTimeout');\n  }\n  if (record.learning !== undefined)\n    out.learning = normalizeLearning(record.learning, 'config.learning');\n  if (record.reveal !== undefined)\n    out.reveal = normalizeRevealOptions(record.reveal, 'config.reveal');\n  return out;\n}\n\nexport interface ResolvedReveal {\n  threshold: number;\n  z: number;\n  cooldown: number;\n}\n\nexport function resolveReveal(\n  config: EngineConfig,\n  intent: IntentConfig,\n  opts: RevealOptions | undefined,\n): ResolvedReveal {\n  const o = opts === undefined ? {} : normalizeRevealOptions(opts, 'options');\n  return {\n    threshold:\n      o.threshold ?? intent.reveal?.threshold ?? config.reveal?.threshold ?? DEFAULT_THRESHOLD,\n    z: o.z ?? intent.reveal?.z ?? config.reveal?.z ?? DEFAULT_Z,\n    cooldown: o.cooldown ?? intent.reveal?.cooldown ?? config.reveal?.cooldown ?? intent.halfLife,\n  };\n}\n\nexport interface ResolvedLearning {\n  /** null means learned counts never decay. */\n  halfLife: number | null;\n  gain: number;\n  priorEpisodes: number;\n}\n\nexport function resolveLearning(config: EngineConfig): ResolvedLearning {\n  return {\n    halfLife: config.learning?.halfLife ?? null,\n    gain: config.learning?.gain ?? DEFAULT_GAIN,\n    priorEpisodes: config.learning?.priorEpisodes ?? DEFAULT_PRIOR_EPISODES,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function expectTimestamp(value: unknown, path: string): number {\n  return expectNumber(value, path);\n}\n\nexport function validateEvent(event: unknown): { name: string; at: number } {\n  if (!isRecord(event)) typeError('event', 'must be an object like { name, at }');\n  const name = expectName(event.name, 'event.name');\n  const at = expectTimestamp(event.at, 'event.at');\n  if (event.props !== undefined && !isRecord(event.props)) {\n    typeError('event.props', 'must be a plain object when present');\n  }\n  return { name, at };\n}\n","/** 2^(−elapsed / halfLife). Returns 1 for zero, negative or non-finite elapsed time. */\nexport function decayFactor(elapsed: number, halfLife: number): number {\n  if (!(elapsed > 0) || !Number.isFinite(elapsed)) return 1;\n  return 2 ** (-elapsed / halfLife);\n}\n\nexport function betaMean(alpha: number, beta: number): number {\n  return alpha / (alpha + beta);\n}\n\nexport function betaVariance(alpha: number, beta: number): number {\n  const n = alpha + beta;\n  return (alpha * beta) / (n * n * (n + 1));\n}\n\nexport function betaSd(alpha: number, beta: number): number {\n  return Math.sqrt(betaVariance(alpha, beta));\n}\n\nexport function clamp01(x: number): number {\n  if (x < 0) return 0;\n  if (x > 1) return 1;\n  return x;\n}\n\n/** Laplace-smoothed rate: (successes + 1) / (total + 2). Always strictly inside (0, 1). */\nexport function laplace(successes: number, total: number): number {\n  return (successes + 1) / (total + 2);\n}\n\n/**\n * How far a rate `q` sits from a base rate `b`, scaled to [−1, 1]:\n * +1 when q is 1, 0 when q equals b, −1 when q is 0.\n */\nexport function lift(q: number, b: number): number {\n  if (q >= b) return b >= 1 ? 0 : (q - b) / (1 - b);\n  return b <= 0 ? 0 : (q - b) / b;\n}\n","import { decayFactor } from './math';\nimport type { IntentConfig, IntentState, SignalContribution } from './types';\nimport { getOwn, mapRecord } from './util';\n\nexport function priorCounts(intent: IntentConfig): { alpha0: number; beta0: number } {\n  return {\n    alpha0: intent.prior * intent.priorStrength,\n    beta0: (1 - intent.prior) * intent.priorStrength,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function initIntent(intent: IntentConfig): IntentState {\n  const { alpha0, beta0 } = priorCounts(intent);\n  return {\n    alpha: alpha0,\n    beta: beta0,\n    updatedAt: null,\n    contributions: {},\n    learned: {},\n    episodes: { hits: 0, misses: 0 },\n    learnedAt: null,\n    lastRevealedAt: null,\n    lastOutcomeAt: null,\n    revealCount: 0,\n  };\n}\n\n/**\n * The one place α and β are written: always the prior plus the sum of contributions,\n * so the invariant α = α0 + Σ contributions.alpha (and β likewise) holds by construction.\n */\nexport function withContributions(\n  state: IntentState,\n  intent: IntentConfig,\n  contributions: Record<string, SignalContribution>,\n): IntentState {\n  const { alpha0, beta0 } = priorCounts(intent);\n  let alpha = alpha0;\n  let beta = beta0;\n  for (const c of Object.values(contributions)) {\n    alpha += c.alpha;\n    beta += c.beta;\n  }\n  return { ...state, alpha, beta, contributions };\n}\n\n/** Decays evidence toward the prior by 2^(−Δt / halfLife) and moves the anchor to `at`. */\nexport function decayIntent(state: IntentState, intent: IntentConfig, at: number): IntentState {\n  if (state.updatedAt === null) return { ...state, updatedAt: at };\n  const d = decayFactor(at - state.updatedAt, intent.halfLife);\n  const updatedAt = Math.max(state.updatedAt, at);\n  if (d === 1) return updatedAt === state.updatedAt ? state : { ...state, updatedAt };\n  const contributions = mapRecord(state.contributions, (c) => ({\n    alpha: c.alpha * d,\n    beta: c.beta * d,\n  }));\n  return withContributions({ ...state, updatedAt }, intent, contributions);\n}\n\n/** Adds `weight` pseudo-counts for the intent (positive → α) or against it (negative → β). */\nexport function applySignal(\n  state: IntentState,\n  intent: IntentConfig,\n  signal: string,\n  weight: number,\n): IntentState {\n  const prev = getOwn(state.contributions, signal) ?? { alpha: 0, beta: 0 };\n  const next: SignalContribution =\n    weight >= 0\n      ? { alpha: prev.alpha + weight, beta: prev.beta }\n      : { alpha: prev.alpha, beta: prev.beta - weight };\n  return withContributions(state, intent, { ...state.contributions, [signal]: next });\n}\n\n/** Drops all evidence; α and β return to the prior. Learned data is untouched. */\nexport function resetToPrior(state: IntentState, intent: IntentConfig): IntentState {\n  return withContributions(state, intent, {});\n}\n","import type { ResolvedLearning } from './config';\nimport { decayFactor, laplace, lift } from './math';\nimport type { IntentConfig, IntentState, SignalRecord } from './types';\nimport { getOwn, mapRecord } from './util';\n\nconst NONE: SignalRecord = { hits: 0, misses: 0 };\n\n/** Decays learned counts toward 0 by 2^(−Δt / learning.halfLife) and moves the anchor to `at`. */\nexport function decayLearned(\n  state: IntentState,\n  learning: ResolvedLearning,\n  at: number,\n): IntentState {\n  if (state.learnedAt === null) return { ...state, learnedAt: at };\n  const learnedAt = Math.max(state.learnedAt, at);\n  const d = learning.halfLife === null ? 1 : decayFactor(at - state.learnedAt, learning.halfLife);\n  if (d === 1) return learnedAt === state.learnedAt ? state : { ...state, learnedAt };\n  return {\n    ...state,\n    learnedAt,\n    learned: mapRecord(state.learned, (r) => ({ hits: r.hits * d, misses: r.misses * d })),\n    episodes: { hits: state.episodes.hits * d, misses: state.episodes.misses * d },\n  };\n}\n\nexport interface SignalWeights {\n  initial: number;\n  learned: number;\n  effective: number;\n  hits: number;\n  misses: number;\n}\n\n/**\n * initial:   the developer's weight w0.\n * learned:   gain · |w0| · lift(q, b), where q is the signal's Laplace-smoothed hit rate and\n *            b the intent's Laplace-smoothed base rate (episodes ending with the outcome).\n * effective: (k · w0 + n · learned) / (k + n), with k = learning.priorEpisodes and n = hits + misses.\n */\nexport function signalWeights(\n  state: IntentState,\n  intent: IntentConfig,\n  learning: ResolvedLearning,\n  signal: string,\n): SignalWeights {\n  const initial = getOwn(intent.signals, signal);\n  if (initial === undefined) {\n    throw new RangeError(`oracular: ${JSON.stringify(signal)} is not a signal of this intent`);\n  }\n  const record = getOwn(state.learned, signal) ?? NONE;\n  const n = record.hits + record.misses;\n  const q = laplace(record.hits, n);\n  const b = laplace(state.episodes.hits, state.episodes.hits + state.episodes.misses);\n  // Nothing has been learned about a signal until it has been seen in a completed episode.\n  const learned = n === 0 ? 0 : learning.gain * Math.abs(initial) * lift(q, b);\n  const k = learning.priorEpisodes;\n  const effective = (k * initial + n * learned) / (k + n);\n  return { initial, learned, effective, hits: record.hits, misses: record.misses };\n}\n\n/** Gives each listed signal a hit (outcome arrived) or a miss (episode ended without it), and counts the episode. */\nexport function recordEpisode(\n  state: IntentState,\n  signals: readonly string[],\n  outcome: boolean,\n): IntentState {\n  const learned = { ...state.learned };\n  for (const signal of signals) {\n    const r = getOwn(learned, signal) ?? NONE;\n    learned[signal] = outcome\n      ? { hits: r.hits + 1, misses: r.misses }\n      : { hits: r.hits, misses: r.misses + 1 };\n  }\n  const episodes = outcome\n    ? { hits: state.episodes.hits + 1, misses: state.episodes.misses }\n    : { hits: state.episodes.hits, misses: state.episodes.misses + 1 };\n  return { ...state, learned, episodes };\n}\n","import type { EpisodeIntentRecord, EpisodeState } from './types';\nimport { getOwn } from './util';\n\nexport function emptyEpisode(): EpisodeState {\n  return { startedAt: null, lastEventAt: null, intents: {} };\n}\n\n/** If the episode has been idle longer than `timeout` by `at`, the moment it timed out; otherwise null. */\nexport function timedOutAt(\n  episode: EpisodeState,\n  timeout: number | undefined,\n  at: number,\n): number | null {\n  if (timeout === undefined || episode.lastEventAt === null) return null;\n  return at - episode.lastEventAt > timeout ? episode.lastEventAt + timeout : null;\n}\n\n/** Opens the episode if needed and records activity at `at`. */\nexport function extendEpisode(episode: EpisodeState, at: number): EpisodeState {\n  return {\n    startedAt: episode.startedAt ?? at,\n    lastEventAt: episode.lastEventAt === null ? at : Math.max(episode.lastEventAt, at),\n    intents: episode.intents,\n  };\n}\n\nexport function episodeRecord(episode: EpisodeState, intent: string): EpisodeIntentRecord {\n  return getOwn(episode.intents, intent) ?? { seen: [], resolved: false };\n}\n\nexport function markSeen(episode: EpisodeState, intent: string, signal: string): EpisodeState {\n  const record = episodeRecord(episode, intent);\n  if (record.seen.includes(signal)) return episode;\n  return {\n    ...episode,\n    intents: { ...episode.intents, [intent]: { ...record, seen: [...record.seen, signal] } },\n  };\n}\n\nexport function markResolved(episode: EpisodeState, intent: string): EpisodeState {\n  return { ...episode, intents: { ...episode.intents, [intent]: { seen: [], resolved: true } } };\n}\n","/**\n * Version of the serialized state shape, stored in every state as `state.version`.\n * {@link deserialize} compares it with the stored value and calls your `migrate` function when\n * they differ. Bumped only when `EngineState` changes incompatibly.\n *\n * @example\n * ```ts\n * import { STATE_VERSION, deserialize } from 'oracular';\n *\n * const state = deserialize(saved, {\n *   migrate: (stored, version) => {\n *     if (version === 0) return upgradeFromV0(stored);\n *     throw new Error(`cannot migrate version ${version} to ${STATE_VERSION}`);\n *   },\n * });\n * ```\n */\nexport const STATE_VERSION = 1 as const;\n","import { normalizeConfig } from './config';\nimport { emptyEpisode } from './episode';\nimport { initIntent } from './intent';\nimport type { EngineConfig, EngineState, IntentConfig, IntentState } from './types';\nimport { getOwn, isRecord } from './util';\nimport { STATE_VERSION } from './version';\n\n/**\n * Builds a fresh engine state from a config. Every intent starts at its prior and no episode is\n * open. The config is validated and a normalized copy is stored inside the state, so a persisted\n * state remembers the weights it was built with; pass your current config to {@link deserialize}\n * when loading.\n *\n * @param config - Intents with their priors and signals, plus engine-wide options. Validated\n *   strictly: unknown keys, non-finite numbers and out-of-range values throw.\n * @returns A new, JSON-serializable state. `config` is not mutated.\n * @throws `TypeError` when a value has the wrong type or a key is not recognised.\n * @throws `RangeError` when a number is out of range, for example a `prior` outside (0, 1) or a\n *   signal weight of 0.\n * @example\n * ```ts\n * const state = createState({\n *   intents: {\n *     upgrade: {\n *       prior: 0.05,\n *       priorStrength: 10,\n *       halfLife: 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000,\n *       signals: { 'pricing.viewed': 3, 'limit.hit': 2, 'plan.downgraded': -4 },\n *       outcome: 'upgrade.completed',\n *     },\n *   },\n * });\n * ```\n */\nexport function createState(config: EngineConfig): EngineState {\n  const normalized = normalizeConfig(config);\n  const intents: Record<string, IntentState> = {};\n  for (const [name, intent] of Object.entries(normalized.intents)) {\n    intents[name] = initIntent(intent);\n  }\n  return { version: STATE_VERSION, config: normalized, intents, episode: emptyEpisode() };\n}\n\nexport function requireState(state: unknown): EngineState {\n  if (\n    !isRecord(state) ||\n    state.version !== STATE_VERSION ||\n    !isRecord(state.config) ||\n    !isRecord(state.intents) ||\n    !isRecord(state.episode)\n  ) {\n    throw new TypeError('oracular: state must be an EngineState from createState or deserialize');\n  }\n  return state as unknown as EngineState;\n}\n\nexport function requireIntentConfig(state: EngineState, name: string): IntentConfig {\n  const intent = getOwn(state.config.intents, name);\n  if (intent === undefined) {\n    throw new RangeError(`oracular: unknown intent ${JSON.stringify(name)}`);\n  }\n  return intent;\n}\n\n/** The stored intent state, or a fresh prior if the intent was added to the config after the state was created. */\nexport function getIntentState(\n  state: EngineState,\n  name: string,\n  intent: IntentConfig,\n): IntentState {\n  return getOwn(state.intents, name) ?? initIntent(intent);\n}\n","import { expectName, expectTimestamp, resolveLearning } from './config';\nimport { decayIntent } from './intent';\nimport { decayLearned, signalWeights } from './learning';\nimport { betaMean } from './math';\nimport { getIntentState, requireIntentConfig, requireState } from './state';\nimport type { EngineState, SignalExplanation } from './types';\nimport { getOwn } from './util';\n\n/**\n * Why the intent's p is what it is at time `at`: one entry per declared signal, the ones that\n * matter most first. `contribution` is the signed pseudo-count the signal currently holds after\n * decay, `impact` is how much p would change if that contribution were removed, and the three\n * weights show what the developer said, what this user's history says, and what the next\n * occurrence will actually add. Read-only.\n *\n * @param state - The current state. Not mutated.\n * @param intent - Name of an intent declared in the config.\n * @param at - The time to evaluate at; contributions and learned counts are decayed to it.\n * @returns One {@link SignalExplanation} per declared signal, sorted by |impact| descending,\n *   then by name. Empty for an intent that declares no signals.\n * @throws `RangeError` when `intent` is not declared in the config.\n * @throws `TypeError` when `state` is not an engine state or `at` is not finite.\n * @example\n * ```ts\n * for (const row of explain(state, 'upgrade', Date.now())) {\n *   console.log(row.signal, row.impact.toFixed(2), row.effectiveWeight.toFixed(2));\n * }\n * ```\n */\nexport function explain(state: EngineState, intent: string, at: number): SignalExplanation[] {\n  const s = requireState(state);\n  const name = expectName(intent, 'intent');\n  const t = expectTimestamp(at, 'at');\n  const config = requireIntentConfig(s, name);\n  const learning = resolveLearning(s.config);\n\n  let is = decayIntent(getIntentState(s, name, config), config, t);\n  is = decayLearned(is, learning, t);\n  const p = betaMean(is.alpha, is.beta);\n\n  const out: SignalExplanation[] = [];\n  for (const signal of Object.keys(config.signals)) {\n    const c = getOwn(is.contributions, signal) ?? { alpha: 0, beta: 0 };\n    const w = signalWeights(is, config, learning, signal);\n    const without = betaMean(is.alpha - c.alpha, is.beta - c.beta);\n    out.push({\n      signal,\n      contribution: c.alpha - c.beta,\n      impact: p - without,\n      initialWeight: w.initial,\n      learnedWeight: w.learned,\n      effectiveWeight: w.effective,\n      hits: w.hits,\n      misses: w.misses,\n    });\n  }\n\n  out.sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.impact) - Math.abs(a.impact) || compare(a.signal, b.signal));\n  return out;\n}\n\nfunction compare(a: string, b: string): number {\n  if (a < b) return -1;\n  if (a > b) return 1;\n  return 0;\n}\n","import { expectTimestamp, resolveLearning, validateEvent } from './config';\nimport {\n  emptyEpisode,\n  episodeRecord,\n  extendEpisode,\n  markResolved,\n  markSeen,\n  timedOutAt,\n} from './episode';\nimport { applySignal, decayIntent, resetToPrior } from './intent';\nimport { decayLearned, recordEpisode, signalWeights } from './learning';\nimport { getIntentState, requireState } from './state';\nimport type { EngineState, IntentEvent, IntentState } from './types';\nimport { hasOwn } from './util';\n\n/**\n * Feeds one event to the engine.\n *\n * For every intent the event is a signal of: decay its evidence to `event.at`, then add the\n * signal's effective weight to α (positive) or β (negative) and remember the signal for this\n * episode. For every intent the event is the outcome of: give the remembered signals a hit,\n * count the episode toward the base rate, record `lastOutcomeAt`, and (by default) reset the\n * evidence to the prior. Any event opens or extends the current episode; an idle gap longer\n * than `config.episodeTimeout` closes the previous episode first.\n *\n * @param state - The current state. Not mutated.\n * @param event - `name` is matched against every intent's signals and outcome; `at` is the\n *   event's timestamp, in the same unit as your durations; `props` are accepted and ignored,\n *   and never stored.\n * @returns The next state. Intents the event does not touch keep their stored numbers; their\n *   decay is applied when they are next read or updated.\n * @throws `TypeError` when `state` is not an engine state, or the event has no non-empty\n *   `name`, no finite `at`, or a `props` that is not a plain object.\n * @example\n * ```ts\n * let state = createState(config);\n * state = observe(state, { name: 'pricing.viewed', at: Date.now() });\n * state = observe(state, { name: 'upgrade.completed', at: Date.now() }); // outcome\n * ```\n */\nexport function observe(state: EngineState, event: IntentEvent): EngineState {\n  let s = requireState(state);\n  const { name, at } = validateEvent(event);\n\n  const closeAt = timedOutAt(s.episode, s.config.episodeTimeout, at);\n  if (closeAt !== null) s = closeEpisode(s, closeAt);\n\n  const learning = resolveLearning(s.config);\n  const intents: Record<string, IntentState> = { ...s.intents };\n  let episode = extendEpisode(s.episode, at);\n\n  for (const [intentName, intent] of Object.entries(s.config.intents)) {\n    const isSignal = hasOwn(intent.signals, name);\n    const isOutcome = intent.outcome === name;\n    if (!isSignal && !isOutcome) continue;\n\n    let is = getIntentState(s, intentName, intent);\n    is = decayIntent(is, intent, at);\n    is = decayLearned(is, learning, at);\n\n    if (isSignal) {\n      const { effective } = signalWeights(is, intent, learning, name);\n      is = applySignal(is, intent, name, effective);\n      // An event that is also the intent's outcome must not learn from itself.\n      if (!isOutcome) episode = markSeen(episode, intentName, name);\n    }\n\n    if (isOutcome) {\n      is = recordEpisode(is, episodeRecord(episode, intentName).seen, true);\n      episode = markResolved(episode, intentName);\n      is = { ...is, lastOutcomeAt: at };\n      if (intent.resetOnOutcome ?? true) is = resetToPrior(is, intent);\n    }\n\n    intents[intentName] = is;\n  }\n\n  return { ...s, intents, episode };\n}\n\n/**\n * Ends the current episode at `at`. Every intent whose outcome did not arrive gives a miss to\n * each signal seen this episode and counts the episode toward its base rate. Call it when a\n * session ends: tab closed, app backgrounded, user signed out.\n *\n * @param state - The current state. Not mutated.\n * @param at - When the episode ended. If it had already timed out under\n *   `config.episodeTimeout`, it is closed at the moment it timed out instead.\n * @returns The next state with no open episode, or the very same state object when no episode\n *   was open.\n * @throws `TypeError` when `state` is not an engine state or `at` is not a finite number.\n * @example\n * ```ts\n * window.addEventListener('pagehide', () => {\n *   state = endEpisode(state, Date.now());\n *   localStorage.setItem('oracular', serialize(state));\n * });\n * ```\n */\nexport function endEpisode(state: EngineState, at: number): EngineState {\n  const s = requireState(state);\n  const t = expectTimestamp(at, 'at');\n  if (s.episode.startedAt === null) return s;\n  const closeAt = timedOutAt(s.episode, s.config.episodeTimeout, t);\n  return closeEpisode(s, closeAt ?? t);\n}\n\nfunction closeEpisode(state: EngineState, at: number): EngineState {\n  const learning = resolveLearning(state.config);\n  const intents: Record<string, IntentState> = { ...state.intents };\n  for (const [intentName, intent] of Object.entries(state.config.intents)) {\n    const record = episodeRecord(state.episode, intentName);\n    if (record.resolved) continue;\n    let is = getIntentState(state, intentName, intent);\n    is = decayLearned(is, learning, at);\n    is = recordEpisode(is, record.seen, false);\n    intents[intentName] = is;\n  }\n  return { ...state, intents, episode: emptyEpisode() };\n}\n","import { expectName, expectTimestamp, resolveReveal } from './config';\nimport { decayIntent } from './intent';\nimport { betaMean, betaSd, clamp01 } from './math';\nimport { getIntentState, requireIntentConfig, requireState } from './state';\nimport type { EngineState, Prediction, RevealOptions } from './types';\n\n/**\n * The intent's current estimate at time `at`: the Beta mean p, its standard deviation, the\n * lower confidence bound that {@link shouldReveal} tests, and the cooldown status. Read-only:\n * the stored state is decayed to `at` for the reading but not changed.\n *\n * @param state - The current state. Not mutated.\n * @param intent - Name of an intent declared in the config.\n * @param at - The time to evaluate at, in the same unit as your durations.\n * @param opts - Overrides for `threshold`, `z` and `cooldown`, resolved as call → intent →\n *   engine → defaults. `z` sets `lower`; `cooldown` sets `revealed` and `suppressedUntil`;\n *   `threshold` only matters to {@link shouldReveal}.\n * @returns The prediction. `p`, `sd`, `lower` and `confidence` are in [0, 1]; `evidence` is\n *   α + β.\n * @throws `RangeError` when `intent` is not declared in the config.\n * @throws `TypeError` when `state` is not an engine state, `at` is not finite, or `opts` is\n *   malformed.\n * @example\n * ```ts\n * const { p, lower, suppressedUntil } = predict(state, 'upgrade', Date.now());\n * if (suppressedUntil !== null) scheduleNextCheck(suppressedUntil);\n * ```\n */\nexport function predict(\n  state: EngineState,\n  intent: string,\n  at: number,\n  opts?: RevealOptions,\n): Prediction {\n  const s = requireState(state);\n  const name = expectName(intent, 'intent');\n  const t = expectTimestamp(at, 'at');\n  const config = requireIntentConfig(s, name);\n  const reveal = resolveReveal(s.config, config, opts);\n  const is = decayIntent(getIntentState(s, name, config), config, t);\n\n  const p = betaMean(is.alpha, is.beta);\n  const sd = betaSd(is.alpha, is.beta);\n  const revealEnd = cooldownEnd(is.lastRevealedAt, reveal.cooldown, t);\n  const outcomeEnd = cooldownEnd(is.lastOutcomeAt, reveal.cooldown, t);\n  const suppressedUntil =\n    revealEnd === null\n      ? outcomeEnd\n      : outcomeEnd === null\n        ? revealEnd\n        : Math.max(revealEnd, outcomeEnd);\n\n  return {\n    intent: name,\n    p,\n    sd,\n    lower: clamp01(p - reveal.z * sd),\n    confidence: clamp01(1 - 2 * sd),\n    evidence: is.alpha + is.beta,\n    revealed: revealEnd !== null,\n    revealedAt: is.lastRevealedAt,\n    suppressedUntil,\n  };\n}\n\n/** The end of a cooldown that started at `since`, if it is still running at `at`. */\nfunction cooldownEnd(since: number | null, cooldown: number, at: number): number | null {\n  if (since === null) return null;\n  const end = since + cooldown;\n  return at < end ? end : null;\n}\n\n/**\n * Whether to act on the intent now. True when p ≥ `threshold`, the lower confidence bound\n * p − z·sd also clears `threshold`, and no cooldown is running: neither the one started by\n * {@link markRevealed} nor the one started by the intent's outcome event.\n *\n * @param state - The current state. Not mutated.\n * @param intent - Name of an intent declared in the config.\n * @param at - The time to evaluate at.\n * @param opts - Overrides for `threshold` (default 0.5), `z` (default 1.28, a one-sided 90%\n *   bound) and `cooldown` (default: the intent's `halfLife`).\n * @returns True when the app should show, offer or reveal whatever this intent gates.\n * @throws `RangeError` when `intent` is not declared in the config.\n * @throws `TypeError` when `state` is not an engine state, `at` is not finite, or `opts` is\n *   malformed.\n * @example\n * ```ts\n * if (shouldReveal(state, 'upgrade', Date.now())) {\n *   showUpgradeOffer();\n *   state = markRevealed(state, 'upgrade', Date.now());\n * }\n * ```\n */\nexport function shouldReveal(\n  state: EngineState,\n  intent: string,\n  at: number,\n  opts?: RevealOptions,\n): boolean {\n  const s = requireState(state);\n  const name = expectName(intent, 'intent');\n  const config = requireIntentConfig(s, name);\n  const { threshold } = resolveReveal(s.config, config, opts);\n  const prediction = predict(s, name, at, opts);\n  return (\n    prediction.suppressedUntil === null &&\n    prediction.p >= threshold &&\n    prediction.lower >= threshold\n  );\n}\n\n/**\n * Records that the app acted on the intent at `at`. Starts the reveal cooldown, during which\n * `predict().revealed` is true and {@link shouldReveal} is false, and increments\n * `revealCount`. Evidence and learned data are untouched.\n *\n * @param state - The current state. Not mutated.\n * @param intent - Name of an intent declared in the config.\n * @param at - When the reveal happened.\n * @returns The next state.\n * @throws `RangeError` when `intent` is not declared in the config.\n * @throws `TypeError` when `state` is not an engine state or `at` is not finite.\n * @example\n * ```ts\n * state = markRevealed(state, 'upgrade', Date.now());\n * predict(state, 'upgrade', Date.now()).revealed; // true until the cooldown ends\n * ```\n */\nexport function markRevealed(state: EngineState, intent: string, at: number): EngineState {\n  const s = requireState(state);\n  const name = expectName(intent, 'intent');\n  const t = expectTimestamp(at, 'at');\n  const config = requireIntentConfig(s, name);\n  const is = getIntentState(s, name, config);\n  return {\n    ...s,\n    intents: {\n      ...s.intents,\n      [name]: { ...is, lastRevealedAt: t, revealCount: is.revealCount + 1 },\n    },\n  };\n}\n","import { normalizeConfig } from './config';\nimport { initIntent, withContributions } from './intent';\nimport { requireState } from './state';\nimport type {\n  DeserializeOptions,\n  EngineConfig,\n  EngineState,\n  EpisodeIntentRecord,\n  EpisodeState,\n  IntentState,\n  SignalContribution,\n  SignalRecord,\n} from './types';\nimport { getOwn, hasOwn, isRecord } from './util';\nimport { STATE_VERSION } from './version';\n\n/**\n * The state as a JSON string, for the host app to persist wherever it likes. The state is plain\n * data, so this is `JSON.stringify` after a shape check. The output never contains event props.\n *\n * @param state - The state to persist.\n * @returns A JSON string that {@link deserialize} restores losslessly.\n * @throws `TypeError` when `state` is not an engine state.\n * @example\n * ```ts\n * localStorage.setItem('oracular', serialize(state));\n * ```\n */\nexport function serialize(state: EngineState): string {\n  return JSON.stringify(requireState(state));\n}\n\n/**\n * Restores a state saved with {@link serialize}.\n *\n * Always pass the app's current `config`: it is validated and replaces the stored snapshot,\n * intents and signals no longer declared are dropped (α and β are recomputed from the kept\n * contributions), and newly declared intents start at their prior. Pass `migrate` to upgrade a\n * state saved by an older version of this library.\n *\n * @param json - A string produced by {@link serialize}.\n * @param opts - `config`: the app's current config. `migrate`: called as\n *   `migrate(stored, version)` when the stored version differs from {@link STATE_VERSION};\n *   it must return a state of the current version.\n * @returns A validated state that satisfies the engine's invariants.\n * @throws `SyntaxError` when `json` is not valid JSON.\n * @throws `TypeError` when the stored data, the result of `migrate`, `opts` or `opts.config`\n *   has the wrong shape.\n * @throws `RangeError` when the stored version differs and no `migrate` is given, when\n *   `migrate` does not return the current version, or when a stored number is out of range.\n * @example\n * ```ts\n * const saved = localStorage.getItem('oracular');\n * let state = saved ? deserialize(saved, { config }) : createState(config);\n * ```\n */\nexport function deserialize(json: string, opts: DeserializeOptions = {}): EngineState {\n  if (typeof json !== 'string') throw new TypeError('oracular: deserialize expects a JSON string');\n  if (!isRecord(opts)) throw new TypeError('oracular: options must be a plain object');\n  for (const key of Object.keys(opts)) {\n    if (key !== 'config' && key !== 'migrate') {\n      throw new TypeError(\n        `oracular: options.${key} is not a recognised option (expected one of: config, migrate)`,\n      );\n    }\n  }\n  if (opts.migrate !== undefined && typeof opts.migrate !== 'function') {\n    throw new TypeError('oracular: options.migrate must be a function');\n  }\n\n  let parsed: unknown;\n  try {\n    parsed = JSON.parse(json);\n  } catch (error) {\n    throw new SyntaxError(`oracular: stored state is not valid JSON (${(error as Error).message})`);\n  }\n  if (!isRecord(parsed) || typeof parsed.version !== 'number') {\n    throw new TypeError('oracular: stored state has no numeric version field');\n  }\n\n  let stored: unknown = parsed;\n  if (parsed.version !== STATE_VERSION) {\n    if (opts.migrate === undefined) {\n      throw new RangeError(\n        `oracular: stored state is version ${parsed.version} but this library reads version ${STATE_VERSION}; pass a migrate function`,\n      );\n    }\n    stored = opts.migrate(parsed, parsed.version);\n  }\n\n  const raw = parseState(stored);\n  const config = opts.config === undefined ? raw.config : normalizeConfig(opts.config);\n  return reconcile(raw, config);\n}\n\n// ---- parsing: field types only; keys are reconciled against the config afterwards ----\n\nfunction typeError(path: string, message: string): never {\n  throw new TypeError(`oracular: ${path} ${message}`);\n}\n\nfunction record(value: unknown, path: string): Record<string, unknown> {\n  if (!isRecord(value)) typeError(path, 'must be a plain object');\n  return value;\n}\n\nfunction finite(value: unknown, path: string): number {\n  if (typeof value !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(value))\n    typeError(path, 'must be a finite number');\n  return value;\n}\n\nfunction nonNegative(value: unknown, path: string): number {\n  const n = finite(value, path);\n  if (n < 0) throw new RangeError(`oracular: ${path} must be 0 or greater`);\n  return n;\n}\n\nfunction nullOrFinite(value: unknown, path: string): number | null {\n  return value === null ? null : finite(value, path);\n}\n\nfunction signalRecord(value: unknown, path: string): SignalRecord {\n  const r = record(value, path);\n  return {\n    hits: nonNegative(r.hits, `${path}.hits`),\n    misses: nonNegative(r.misses, `${path}.misses`),\n  };\n}\n\nfunction contribution(value: unknown, path: string): SignalContribution {\n  const r = record(value, path);\n  return {\n    alpha: nonNegative(r.alpha, `${path}.alpha`),\n    beta: nonNegative(r.beta, `${path}.beta`),\n  };\n}\n\nfunction mapOwn<T>(\n  value: unknown,\n  path: string,\n  fn: (item: unknown, itemPath: string) => T,\n): Record<string, T> {\n  const r = record(value, path);\n  const out: Record<string, T> = {};\n  for (const key of Object.keys(r)) {\n    if (key === '__proto__') continue;\n    out[key] = fn(r[key], `${path}[${JSON.stringify(key)}]`);\n  }\n  return out;\n}\n\nfunction intentState(value: unknown, path: string): IntentState {\n  const r = record(value, path);\n  const revealCount = finite(r.revealCount, `${path}.revealCount`);\n  if (!Number.isInteger(revealCount) || revealCount < 0) {\n    throw new RangeError(`oracular: ${path}.revealCount must be a non-negative integer`);\n  }\n  return {\n    alpha: finite(r.alpha, `${path}.alpha`),\n    beta: finite(r.beta, `${path}.beta`),\n    updatedAt: nullOrFinite(r.updatedAt, `${path}.updatedAt`),\n    contributions: mapOwn(r.contributions, `${path}.contributions`, contribution),\n    learned: mapOwn(r.learned, `${path}.learned`, signalRecord),\n    episodes: signalRecord(r.episodes, `${path}.episodes`),\n    learnedAt: nullOrFinite(r.learnedAt, `${path}.learnedAt`),\n    lastRevealedAt: nullOrFinite(r.lastRevealedAt, `${path}.lastRevealedAt`),\n    lastOutcomeAt: nullOrFinite(r.lastOutcomeAt, `${path}.lastOutcomeAt`),\n    revealCount,\n  };\n}\n\nfunction episodeIntent(value: unknown, path: string): EpisodeIntentRecord {\n  const r = record(value, path);\n  if (!Array.isArray(r.seen) || !r.seen.every((s) => typeof s === 'string')) {\n    typeError(`${path}.seen`, 'must be an array of strings');\n  }\n  if (typeof r.resolved !== 'boolean') typeError(`${path}.resolved`, 'must be a boolean');\n  return { seen: r.seen as string[], resolved: r.resolved };\n}\n\nfunction episodeState(value: unknown, path: string): EpisodeState {\n  const r = record(value, path);\n  return {\n    startedAt: nullOrFinite(r.startedAt, `${path}.startedAt`),\n    lastEventAt: nullOrFinite(r.lastEventAt, `${path}.lastEventAt`),\n    intents: mapOwn(r.intents, `${path}.intents`, episodeIntent),\n  };\n}\n\nfunction parseState(value: unknown): EngineState {\n  const r = record(value, 'state');\n  if (r.version !== STATE_VERSION) {\n    throw new RangeError(`oracular: state.version must be ${STATE_VERSION} after migration`);\n  }\n  return {\n    version: STATE_VERSION,\n    config: normalizeConfig(r.config),\n    intents: mapOwn(r.intents, 'state.intents', intentState),\n    episode: episodeState(r.episode, 'state.episode'),\n  };\n}\n\n// ---- reconciling: make the state agree with a config ----\n\nfunction keep<T>(source: Record<string, T>, declared: Record<string, unknown>): Record<string, T> {\n  const out: Record<string, T> = {};\n  for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(source)) {\n    if (hasOwn(declared, key)) out[key] = value;\n  }\n  return out;\n}\n\n/**\n * Drops intents and signals the config no longer declares, starts newly declared intents at\n * their prior, and recomputes α and β as the (possibly new) prior plus the kept contributions.\n */\nfunction reconcile(raw: EngineState, config: EngineConfig): EngineState {\n  const intents: Record<string, IntentState> = {};\n  const episodeIntents: Record<string, EpisodeIntentRecord> = {};\n\n  for (const [name, intent] of Object.entries(config.intents)) {\n    const stored = getOwn(raw.intents, name);\n    if (stored === undefined) {\n      intents[name] = initIntent(intent);\n    } else {\n      intents[name] = withContributions(\n        { ...stored, learned: keep(stored.learned, intent.signals) },\n        intent,\n        keep(stored.contributions, intent.signals),\n      );\n    }\n    const episode = getOwn(raw.episode.intents, name);\n    if (episode !== undefined && raw.episode.startedAt !== null) {\n      const seen = episode.seen.filter(\n        (s, i) => hasOwn(intent.signals, s) && episode.seen.indexOf(s) === i,\n      );\n      episodeIntents[name] = { seen, resolved: episode.resolved };\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    version: STATE_VERSION,\n    config,\n    intents,\n    episode: {\n      startedAt: raw.episode.startedAt,\n      lastEventAt: raw.episode.startedAt === null ? null : raw.episode.lastEventAt,\n      intents: episodeIntents,\n    },\n  };\n}\n"]}

package/dist/index.d.cts

@@ -0,0 +1,476 @@
+/**
+ * Version of the serialized state shape, stored in every state as `state.version`.
+ * {@link deserialize} compares it with the stored value and calls your `migrate` function when
+ * they differ. Bumped only when `EngineState` changes incompatibly.
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * import { STATE_VERSION, deserialize } from 'oracular';
+ *
+ * const state = deserialize(saved, {
+ *   migrate: (stored, version) => {
+ *     if (version === 0) return upgradeFromV0(stored);
+ *     throw new Error(`cannot migrate version ${version} to ${STATE_VERSION}`);
+ *   },
+ * });
+ * ```
+ */
+declare const STATE_VERSION: 1;
+
+/**
+ * Options that decide when `shouldReveal` fires and how long cooldowns last. Resolved per call →
+ * intent → engine → defaults.
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * shouldReveal(state, 'upgrade', Date.now(), { threshold: 0.7, z: 1.64 });
+ * ```
+ */
+interface RevealOptions {
+    /** Probability the intent must reach, in [0, 1]. Default 0.5. */
+    threshold?: number;
+    /** How many standard deviations below p must still clear the threshold. Default 1.28 (one-sided 90%). */
+    z?: number;
+    /** How long after `markRevealed` the intent stays revealed and `shouldReveal` is false. Default: the intent's `halfLife`. */
+    cooldown?: number;
+}
+/**
+ * How the engine learns from the user's own outcomes.
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * const config = {
+ *   intents,
+ *   learning: { priorEpisodes: 5, gain: 1.5, halfLife: 90 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000 },
+ * };
+ * ```
+ */
+interface LearningConfig {
+    /** Half-life of learned hit/miss counts, in the same unit as `at`. Omit for no forgetting. */
+    halfLife?: number;
+    /** A perfectly predictive signal converges to `gain × |initial weight|`. Default 2. */
+    gain?: number;
+    /** Pseudo-count behind the developer's initial weight: how many observed episodes it takes to weigh as much as the prior. Default 10. */
+    priorEpisodes?: number;
+}
+/**
+ * One thing the user might be about to do, tracked as a Beta(α, β) distribution with
+ * α₀ = prior × priorStrength and β₀ = (1 − prior) × priorStrength.
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * const churn: IntentConfig = {
+ *   prior: 0.08,
+ *   priorStrength: 20,
+ *   halfLife: 14 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000,
+ *   signals: { 'session.short': 1, 'notifications.disabled': 3, 'feature.new.used': -2 },
+ *   outcome: 'account.cancelled',
+ *   reveal: { threshold: 0.5, z: 1.64 },
+ * };
+ * ```
+ */
+interface IntentConfig {
+    /** Prior probability, strictly between 0 and 1. */
+    prior: number;
+    /** Strength of the prior as a pseudo-count, greater than 0. */
+    priorStrength: number;
+    /** Half-life of evidence, in the same unit as `at`. Evidence decays back toward the prior. */
+    halfLife: number;
+    /** Event name → initial weight. Positive is evidence for the intent, negative against. Non-zero. */
+    signals: Record<string, number>;
+    /** Event name that confirms the intent happened, e.g. `'checkout.completed'`. */
+    outcome?: string;
+    /** Reset α, β and contributions to the prior when the outcome arrives. Default true. */
+    resetOnOutcome?: boolean;
+    /** Reveal defaults for this intent. */
+    reveal?: RevealOptions;
+}
+/**
+ * Everything `createState` needs. A normalized copy is stored in the state; pass the current
+ * config to `deserialize` on load.
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * const config: EngineConfig = {
+ *   episodeTimeout: 30 * 60 * 1000,
+ *   intents: { upgrade, churn },
+ *   reveal: { z: 1.28 },
+ * };
+ * ```
+ */
+interface EngineConfig {
+    intents: Record<string, IntentConfig>;
+    /** Idle gap after which the current episode ends on its own, in the same unit as `at`. Omit to end episodes only via `endEpisode`. */
+    episodeTimeout?: number;
+    learning?: LearningConfig;
+    /** Reveal defaults for every intent. */
+    reveal?: RevealOptions;
+}
+/** Pseudo-counts a single signal has added to an intent: `alpha` for, `beta` against. Decays with the intent. */
+interface SignalContribution {
+    alpha: number;
+    beta: number;
+}
+/** What this user's history says about one signal. Decays with `learning.halfLife`. */
+interface SignalRecord {
+    /** Episodes in which the signal was followed by the outcome. */
+    hits: number;
+    /** Episodes in which it was not. */
+    misses: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Everything the engine knows about one intent for this user. Plain data; read it for debugging
+ * or dashboards, but change it only through the engine's functions.
+ */
+interface IntentState {
+    /** Beta α. Always equals prior α plus the sum of `contributions[*].alpha`. */
+    alpha: number;
+    /** Beta β. Always equals prior β plus the sum of `contributions[*].beta`. */
+    beta: number;
+    /** Time α, β and contributions were last decayed to. */
+    updatedAt: number | null;
+    contributions: Record<string, SignalContribution>;
+    learned: Record<string, SignalRecord>;
+    /** Episodes that ended with (`hits`) or without (`misses`) the outcome: the base rate. */
+    episodes: SignalRecord;
+    /** Time `learned` and `episodes` were last decayed to. */
+    learnedAt: number | null;
+    lastRevealedAt: number | null;
+    /** Time the intent's outcome event last arrived. `shouldReveal` stays false for the cooldown after it. */
+    lastOutcomeAt: number | null;
+    revealCount: number;
+}
+/** What one intent has seen in the current episode. */
+interface EpisodeIntentRecord {
+    /** Signals seen since the episode started (or since this intent's last outcome). */
+    seen: string[];
+    /** Whether the outcome arrived in this episode. */
+    resolved: boolean;
+}
+/** The current episode (session). One episode is open at a time, shared by all intents. */
+interface EpisodeState {
+    startedAt: number | null;
+    lastEventAt: number | null;
+    intents: Record<string, EpisodeIntentRecord>;
+}
+/**
+ * The whole engine state: plain JSON with no functions, class instances or hidden fields.
+ * Persist it with `serialize`, restore it with `deserialize`.
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * const state = createState(config);
+ * state.intents.upgrade.alpha; // 0.5 for prior 0.05 × priorStrength 10
+ * JSON.stringify(state) === serialize(state); // true
+ * ```
+ */
+interface EngineState {
+    version: typeof STATE_VERSION;
+    /** Snapshot of the config this state was built with. Pass your current config to `deserialize` on load. */
+    config: EngineConfig;
+    intents: Record<string, IntentState>;
+    episode: EpisodeState;
+}
+/**
+ * What the app feeds to `observe`. Any event name is accepted; only names that appear in some
+ * intent's `signals` or as its `outcome` change evidence, every event extends the episode.
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * observe(state, { name: 'pricing.viewed', at: Date.now(), props: { plan: 'pro' } });
+ * ```
+ */
+interface IntentEvent {
+    name: string;
+    /** Timestamp. Every duration in the config uses the same unit (milliseconds recommended). */
+    at: number;
+    /** Accepted and ignored in 0.1; never stored. */
+    props?: Record<string, unknown>;
+}
+/**
+ * What `predict` returns for one intent at one moment.
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * const { p, lower, confidence, revealed, suppressedUntil } = predict(state, 'upgrade', now);
+ * ```
+ */
+interface Prediction {
+    intent: string;
+    /** Mean of the Beta distribution: α / (α + β). */
+    p: number;
+    /** Standard deviation of the Beta distribution. */
+    sd: number;
+    /** p − z·sd, clamped to [0, 1]. This is what `shouldReveal` compares to the threshold. */
+    lower: number;
+    /** 1 − 2·sd, clamped to [0, 1]. A heuristic: 1 when the estimate is sharp, 0 when it is as vague as possible. */
+    confidence: number;
+    /** α + β: total pseudo-observations, prior strength included. */
+    evidence: number;
+    /** True while inside the cooldown that follows `markRevealed`. */
+    revealed: boolean;
+    revealedAt: number | null;
+    /**
+     * When the current suppression ends: the later of the reveal cooldown (after `markRevealed`)
+     * and the outcome cooldown (after the outcome event) still running at `at`, or null when
+     * neither is. `shouldReveal` is false while this is non-null.
+     */
+    suppressedUntil: number | null;
+}
+/**
+ * One row of `explain`: what a single signal is doing to an intent right now, and what has been
+ * learned about it.
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * const [strongest] = explain(state, 'upgrade', now);
+ * strongest?.signal; // the signal with the largest |impact|
+ * ```
+ */
+interface SignalExplanation {
+    signal: string;
+    /** Signed pseudo-counts this signal currently holds: positive in α, negative in β, after decay. */
+    contribution: number;
+    /** p minus what p would be without this signal's contribution. */
+    impact: number;
+    /** The developer's weight. */
+    initialWeight: number;
+    /** What this user's history alone says the weight should be. */
+    learnedWeight: number;
+    /** The blend the next occurrence of the signal will actually add. */
+    effectiveWeight: number;
+    hits: number;
+    misses: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Turns a stored state of an older version into a current `EngineState`. Receives the parsed
+ * JSON as-is and the version it declares.
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * const migrate: Migrate = (stored, version) => {
+ *   if (version === 0) return { ...(stored as object), version: 1 } as EngineState;
+ *   throw new Error(`unknown state version ${version}`);
+ * };
+ * ```
+ */
+type Migrate = (stored: unknown, version: number) => EngineState;
+/**
+ * Options for `deserialize`.
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * deserialize(saved, { config: currentConfig, migrate });
+ * ```
+ */
+interface DeserializeOptions {
+    /** The app's current config. Validated, swapped in, and used to prune signals and intents no longer declared. */
+    config?: EngineConfig;
+    /** Called when the stored version differs from `STATE_VERSION`. */
+    migrate?: Migrate;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Why the intent's p is what it is at time `at`: one entry per declared signal, the ones that
+ * matter most first. `contribution` is the signed pseudo-count the signal currently holds after
+ * decay, `impact` is how much p would change if that contribution were removed, and the three
+ * weights show what the developer said, what this user's history says, and what the next
+ * occurrence will actually add. Read-only.
+ *
+ * @param state - The current state. Not mutated.
+ * @param intent - Name of an intent declared in the config.
+ * @param at - The time to evaluate at; contributions and learned counts are decayed to it.
+ * @returns One {@link SignalExplanation} per declared signal, sorted by |impact| descending,
+ *   then by name. Empty for an intent that declares no signals.
+ * @throws `RangeError` when `intent` is not declared in the config.
+ * @throws `TypeError` when `state` is not an engine state or `at` is not finite.
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * for (const row of explain(state, 'upgrade', Date.now())) {
+ *   console.log(row.signal, row.impact.toFixed(2), row.effectiveWeight.toFixed(2));
+ * }
+ * ```
+ */
+declare function explain(state: EngineState, intent: string, at: number): SignalExplanation[];
+
+/**
+ * Feeds one event to the engine.
+ *
+ * For every intent the event is a signal of: decay its evidence to `event.at`, then add the
+ * signal's effective weight to α (positive) or β (negative) and remember the signal for this
+ * episode. For every intent the event is the outcome of: give the remembered signals a hit,
+ * count the episode toward the base rate, record `lastOutcomeAt`, and (by default) reset the
+ * evidence to the prior. Any event opens or extends the current episode; an idle gap longer
+ * than `config.episodeTimeout` closes the previous episode first.
+ *
+ * @param state - The current state. Not mutated.
+ * @param event - `name` is matched against every intent's signals and outcome; `at` is the
+ *   event's timestamp, in the same unit as your durations; `props` are accepted and ignored,
+ *   and never stored.
+ * @returns The next state. Intents the event does not touch keep their stored numbers; their
+ *   decay is applied when they are next read or updated.
+ * @throws `TypeError` when `state` is not an engine state, or the event has no non-empty
+ *   `name`, no finite `at`, or a `props` that is not a plain object.
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * let state = createState(config);
+ * state = observe(state, { name: 'pricing.viewed', at: Date.now() });
+ * state = observe(state, { name: 'upgrade.completed', at: Date.now() }); // outcome
+ * ```
+ */
+declare function observe(state: EngineState, event: IntentEvent): EngineState;
+/**
+ * Ends the current episode at `at`. Every intent whose outcome did not arrive gives a miss to
+ * each signal seen this episode and counts the episode toward its base rate. Call it when a
+ * session ends: tab closed, app backgrounded, user signed out.
+ *
+ * @param state - The current state. Not mutated.
+ * @param at - When the episode ended. If it had already timed out under
+ *   `config.episodeTimeout`, it is closed at the moment it timed out instead.
+ * @returns The next state with no open episode, or the very same state object when no episode
+ *   was open.
+ * @throws `TypeError` when `state` is not an engine state or `at` is not a finite number.
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * window.addEventListener('pagehide', () => {
+ *   state = endEpisode(state, Date.now());
+ *   localStorage.setItem('oracular', serialize(state));
+ * });
+ * ```
+ */
+declare function endEpisode(state: EngineState, at: number): EngineState;
+
+/**
+ * The intent's current estimate at time `at`: the Beta mean p, its standard deviation, the
+ * lower confidence bound that {@link shouldReveal} tests, and the cooldown status. Read-only:
+ * the stored state is decayed to `at` for the reading but not changed.
+ *
+ * @param state - The current state. Not mutated.
+ * @param intent - Name of an intent declared in the config.
+ * @param at - The time to evaluate at, in the same unit as your durations.
+ * @param opts - Overrides for `threshold`, `z` and `cooldown`, resolved as call → intent →
+ *   engine → defaults. `z` sets `lower`; `cooldown` sets `revealed` and `suppressedUntil`;
+ *   `threshold` only matters to {@link shouldReveal}.
+ * @returns The prediction. `p`, `sd`, `lower` and `confidence` are in [0, 1]; `evidence` is
+ *   α + β.
+ * @throws `RangeError` when `intent` is not declared in the config.
+ * @throws `TypeError` when `state` is not an engine state, `at` is not finite, or `opts` is
+ *   malformed.
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * const { p, lower, suppressedUntil } = predict(state, 'upgrade', Date.now());
+ * if (suppressedUntil !== null) scheduleNextCheck(suppressedUntil);
+ * ```
+ */
+declare function predict(state: EngineState, intent: string, at: number, opts?: RevealOptions): Prediction;
+/**
+ * Whether to act on the intent now. True when p ≥ `threshold`, the lower confidence bound
+ * p − z·sd also clears `threshold`, and no cooldown is running: neither the one started by
+ * {@link markRevealed} nor the one started by the intent's outcome event.
+ *
+ * @param state - The current state. Not mutated.
+ * @param intent - Name of an intent declared in the config.
+ * @param at - The time to evaluate at.
+ * @param opts - Overrides for `threshold` (default 0.5), `z` (default 1.28, a one-sided 90%
+ *   bound) and `cooldown` (default: the intent's `halfLife`).
+ * @returns True when the app should show, offer or reveal whatever this intent gates.
+ * @throws `RangeError` when `intent` is not declared in the config.
+ * @throws `TypeError` when `state` is not an engine state, `at` is not finite, or `opts` is
+ *   malformed.
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * if (shouldReveal(state, 'upgrade', Date.now())) {
+ *   showUpgradeOffer();
+ *   state = markRevealed(state, 'upgrade', Date.now());
+ * }
+ * ```
+ */
+declare function shouldReveal(state: EngineState, intent: string, at: number, opts?: RevealOptions): boolean;
+/**
+ * Records that the app acted on the intent at `at`. Starts the reveal cooldown, during which
+ * `predict().revealed` is true and {@link shouldReveal} is false, and increments
+ * `revealCount`. Evidence and learned data are untouched.
+ *
+ * @param state - The current state. Not mutated.
+ * @param intent - Name of an intent declared in the config.
+ * @param at - When the reveal happened.
+ * @returns The next state.
+ * @throws `RangeError` when `intent` is not declared in the config.
+ * @throws `TypeError` when `state` is not an engine state or `at` is not finite.
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * state = markRevealed(state, 'upgrade', Date.now());
+ * predict(state, 'upgrade', Date.now()).revealed; // true until the cooldown ends
+ * ```
+ */
+declare function markRevealed(state: EngineState, intent: string, at: number): EngineState;
+
+/**
+ * The state as a JSON string, for the host app to persist wherever it likes. The state is plain
+ * data, so this is `JSON.stringify` after a shape check. The output never contains event props.
+ *
+ * @param state - The state to persist.
+ * @returns A JSON string that {@link deserialize} restores losslessly.
+ * @throws `TypeError` when `state` is not an engine state.
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * localStorage.setItem('oracular', serialize(state));
+ * ```
+ */
+declare function serialize(state: EngineState): string;
+/**
+ * Restores a state saved with {@link serialize}.
+ *
+ * Always pass the app's current `config`: it is validated and replaces the stored snapshot,
+ * intents and signals no longer declared are dropped (α and β are recomputed from the kept
+ * contributions), and newly declared intents start at their prior. Pass `migrate` to upgrade a
+ * state saved by an older version of this library.
+ *
+ * @param json - A string produced by {@link serialize}.
+ * @param opts - `config`: the app's current config. `migrate`: called as
+ *   `migrate(stored, version)` when the stored version differs from {@link STATE_VERSION};
+ *   it must return a state of the current version.
+ * @returns A validated state that satisfies the engine's invariants.
+ * @throws `SyntaxError` when `json` is not valid JSON.
+ * @throws `TypeError` when the stored data, the result of `migrate`, `opts` or `opts.config`
+ *   has the wrong shape.
+ * @throws `RangeError` when the stored version differs and no `migrate` is given, when
+ *   `migrate` does not return the current version, or when a stored number is out of range.
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * const saved = localStorage.getItem('oracular');
+ * let state = saved ? deserialize(saved, { config }) : createState(config);
+ * ```
+ */
+declare function deserialize(json: string, opts?: DeserializeOptions): EngineState;
+
+/**
+ * Builds a fresh engine state from a config. Every intent starts at its prior and no episode is
+ * open. The config is validated and a normalized copy is stored inside the state, so a persisted
+ * state remembers the weights it was built with; pass your current config to {@link deserialize}
+ * when loading.
+ *
+ * @param config - Intents with their priors and signals, plus engine-wide options. Validated
+ *   strictly: unknown keys, non-finite numbers and out-of-range values throw.
+ * @returns A new, JSON-serializable state. `config` is not mutated.
+ * @throws `TypeError` when a value has the wrong type or a key is not recognised.
+ * @throws `RangeError` when a number is out of range, for example a `prior` outside (0, 1) or a
+ *   signal weight of 0.
+ * @example
+ * ```ts
+ * const state = createState({
+ *   intents: {
+ *     upgrade: {
+ *       prior: 0.05,
+ *       priorStrength: 10,
+ *       halfLife: 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000,
+ *       signals: { 'pricing.viewed': 3, 'limit.hit': 2, 'plan.downgraded': -4 },
+ *       outcome: 'upgrade.completed',
+ *     },
+ *   },
+ * });
+ * ```
+ */
+declare function createState(config: EngineConfig): EngineState;
+
+export { type DeserializeOptions, type EngineConfig, type EngineState, type EpisodeIntentRecord, type EpisodeState, type IntentConfig, type IntentEvent, type IntentState, type LearningConfig, type Migrate, type Prediction, type RevealOptions, STATE_VERSION, type SignalContribution, type SignalExplanation, type SignalRecord, createState, deserialize, endEpisode, explain, markRevealed, observe, predict, serialize, shouldReveal };