opentradex 0.1.0
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/.env.example +8 -0
- package/CLAUDE.md +98 -0
- package/README.md +246 -0
- package/SOUL.md +79 -0
- package/SPEC.md +317 -0
- package/SUBMISSION.md +30 -0
- package/architecture.excalidraw +170 -0
- package/architecture.png +0 -0
- package/bin/opentradex.mjs +4 -0
- package/data/.gitkeep +0 -0
- package/data/strategy_notes.md +158 -0
- package/gossip/__init__.py +0 -0
- package/gossip/dashboard.py +150 -0
- package/gossip/db.py +358 -0
- package/gossip/kalshi.py +492 -0
- package/gossip/news.py +235 -0
- package/gossip/trader.py +646 -0
- package/main.py +287 -0
- package/package.json +47 -0
- package/requirements.txt +7 -0
- package/src/cli.mjs +124 -0
- package/src/index.mjs +420 -0
- package/web/AGENTS.md +5 -0
- package/web/CLAUDE.md +1 -0
- package/web/README.md +36 -0
- package/web/components.json +25 -0
- package/web/eslint.config.mjs +18 -0
- package/web/next.config.ts +7 -0
- package/web/package-lock.json +11626 -0
- package/web/package.json +37 -0
- package/web/postcss.config.mjs +7 -0
- package/web/public/file.svg +1 -0
- package/web/public/globe.svg +1 -0
- package/web/public/next.svg +1 -0
- package/web/public/vercel.svg +1 -0
- package/web/public/window.svg +1 -0
- package/web/src/app/api/agent/route.ts +77 -0
- package/web/src/app/api/agent/stream/route.ts +87 -0
- package/web/src/app/api/markets/route.ts +15 -0
- package/web/src/app/api/news/live/route.ts +77 -0
- package/web/src/app/api/news/reddit/route.ts +118 -0
- package/web/src/app/api/news/route.ts +10 -0
- package/web/src/app/api/news/tiktok/route.ts +115 -0
- package/web/src/app/api/news/truthsocial/route.ts +116 -0
- package/web/src/app/api/news/twitter/route.ts +186 -0
- package/web/src/app/api/portfolio/route.ts +50 -0
- package/web/src/app/api/prices/route.ts +18 -0
- package/web/src/app/api/trades/route.ts +10 -0
- package/web/src/app/favicon.ico +0 -0
- package/web/src/app/globals.css +170 -0
- package/web/src/app/layout.tsx +36 -0
- package/web/src/app/page.tsx +366 -0
- package/web/src/components/AgentLog.tsx +71 -0
- package/web/src/components/LiveStream.tsx +394 -0
- package/web/src/components/MarketScanner.tsx +111 -0
- package/web/src/components/NewsFeed.tsx +561 -0
- package/web/src/components/PortfolioStrip.tsx +139 -0
- package/web/src/components/PositionsPanel.tsx +219 -0
- package/web/src/components/TopBar.tsx +127 -0
- package/web/src/components/ui/badge.tsx +52 -0
- package/web/src/components/ui/button.tsx +60 -0
- package/web/src/components/ui/card.tsx +103 -0
- package/web/src/components/ui/scroll-area.tsx +55 -0
- package/web/src/components/ui/separator.tsx +25 -0
- package/web/src/components/ui/tabs.tsx +82 -0
- package/web/src/components/ui/tooltip.tsx +66 -0
- package/web/src/lib/db.ts +81 -0
- package/web/src/lib/types.ts +130 -0
- package/web/src/lib/utils.ts +6 -0
- package/web/tsconfig.json +34 -0
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{
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"type": "excalidraw",
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"version": 2,
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"source": "open-trademaxxxing",
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"elements": [
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{"type":"text","id":"cron_sub","x":390,"y":842,"width":380,"height":18,"text":"Every 15 min: spawn agent -> research -> trade -> learn","fontSize":14,"fontFamily":1,"strokeColor":"#a0a0a0","backgroundColor":"transparent","fillStyle":"solid","strokeWidth":2,"roughness":1,"opacity":100,"angle":0,"seed":122,"groupIds":[],"roundness":null,"boundElements":null,"updated":1,"link":null,"locked":false,"textAlign":"left","verticalAlign":"top"},
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150
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+
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151
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+
{"type":"arrow","id":"a_cron_up","x":550,"y":810,"width":0,"height":-95,"points":[[0,0],[0,-95]],"strokeColor":"#f59e0b","strokeWidth":2,"roughness":1,"opacity":100,"angle":0,"seed":123,"groupIds":[],"roundness":null,"boundElements":null,"updated":1,"link":null,"locked":false,"endArrowhead":"arrow","startArrowhead":null,"strokeStyle":"dashed"},
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+
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+
{"type":"rectangle","id":"edge_box","x":-50,"y":810,"width":320,"height":80,"backgroundColor":"#5c1a1a","fillStyle":"solid","roundness":{"type":3},"strokeColor":"#ef4444","strokeWidth":1,"opacity":60,"roughness":1,"angle":0,"seed":130,"groupIds":[],"boundElements":null,"updated":1,"link":null,"locked":false},
|
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154
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+
{"type":"text","id":"edge_title","x":-20,"y":820,"width":150,"height":22,"text":"EDGE THEORY","fontSize":16,"fontFamily":1,"strokeColor":"#ef4444","backgroundColor":"transparent","fillStyle":"solid","strokeWidth":2,"roughness":1,"opacity":100,"angle":0,"seed":131,"groupIds":[],"roundness":null,"boundElements":null,"updated":1,"link":null,"locked":false,"textAlign":"left","verticalAlign":"top"},
|
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155
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+
{"type":"text","id":"e1","x":-20,"y":843,"width":310,"height":18,"text":"Hard evidence: event happened, market lags","fontSize":13,"fontFamily":1,"strokeColor":"#a0a0a0","backgroundColor":"transparent","fillStyle":"solid","strokeWidth":2,"roughness":1,"opacity":100,"angle":0,"seed":132,"groupIds":[],"roundness":null,"boundElements":null,"updated":1,"link":null,"locked":false,"textAlign":"left","verticalAlign":"top"},
|
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156
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+
{"type":"text","id":"e2","x":-20,"y":860,"width":300,"height":18,"text":"Soft evidence: credible sources converge","fontSize":13,"fontFamily":1,"strokeColor":"#a0a0a0","backgroundColor":"transparent","fillStyle":"solid","strokeWidth":2,"roughness":1,"opacity":100,"angle":0,"seed":133,"groupIds":[],"roundness":null,"boundElements":null,"updated":1,"link":null,"locked":false,"textAlign":"left","verticalAlign":"top"},
|
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157
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+
{"type":"text","id":"e3","x":-20,"y":877,"width":340,"height":18,"text":"Speculation: trend extrapolation (usually pass)","fontSize":13,"fontFamily":1,"strokeColor":"#a0a0a0","backgroundColor":"transparent","fillStyle":"solid","strokeWidth":2,"roughness":1,"opacity":100,"angle":0,"seed":134,"groupIds":[],"roundness":null,"boundElements":null,"updated":1,"link":null,"locked":false,"textAlign":"left","verticalAlign":"top"},
|
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158
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+
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159
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+
{"type":"rectangle","id":"risk_box","x":830,"y":810,"width":370,"height":80,"backgroundColor":"#5c1a1a","fillStyle":"solid","roundness":{"type":3},"strokeColor":"#ef4444","strokeWidth":1,"opacity":60,"roughness":1,"angle":0,"seed":140,"groupIds":[],"boundElements":null,"updated":1,"link":null,"locked":false},
|
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160
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+
{"type":"text","id":"risk_title","x":860,"y":820,"width":180,"height":22,"text":"RISK DISCIPLINE","fontSize":16,"fontFamily":1,"strokeColor":"#ef4444","backgroundColor":"transparent","fillStyle":"solid","strokeWidth":2,"roughness":1,"opacity":100,"angle":0,"seed":141,"groupIds":[],"roundness":null,"boundElements":null,"updated":1,"link":null,"locked":false,"textAlign":"left","verticalAlign":"top"},
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+
{"type":"text","id":"r1","x":860,"y":843,"width":280,"height":18,"text":"Half-Kelly sizing (never full Kelly)","fontSize":13,"fontFamily":1,"strokeColor":"#a0a0a0","backgroundColor":"transparent","fillStyle":"solid","strokeWidth":2,"roughness":1,"opacity":100,"angle":0,"seed":142,"groupIds":[],"roundness":null,"boundElements":null,"updated":1,"link":null,"locked":false,"textAlign":"left","verticalAlign":"top"},
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+
{"type":"text","id":"r2","x":860,"y":860,"width":260,"height":18,"text":"Max 30% bankroll per position","fontSize":13,"fontFamily":1,"strokeColor":"#a0a0a0","backgroundColor":"transparent","fillStyle":"solid","strokeWidth":2,"roughness":1,"opacity":100,"angle":0,"seed":143,"groupIds":[],"roundness":null,"boundElements":null,"updated":1,"link":null,"locked":false,"textAlign":"left","verticalAlign":"top"},
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163
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+
{"type":"text","id":"r3","x":860,"y":877,"width":380,"height":18,"text":"Exit if thesis invalidated / take profit < 5pp edge","fontSize":13,"fontFamily":1,"strokeColor":"#a0a0a0","backgroundColor":"transparent","fillStyle":"solid","strokeWidth":2,"roughness":1,"opacity":100,"angle":0,"seed":144,"groupIds":[],"roundness":null,"boundElements":null,"updated":1,"link":null,"locked":false,"textAlign":"left","verticalAlign":"top"}
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],
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"appState": {
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"viewBackgroundColor": "#1e1e2e",
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"gridSize": null
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},
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"files": {}
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}
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# Strategy Notes
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2
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+
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3
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+
Agent-maintained file. Write lessons, market regime observations, and
|
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4
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+
strategic insights here. This file is loaded each cycle so future
|
|
5
|
+
sessions benefit from past experience.
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6
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+
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7
|
+
## Known Issues (pre-loaded)
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8
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+
|
|
9
|
+
- Always run Python tools with `PYTHONPATH=.` prefix: `PYTHONPATH=. python3 gossip/...`
|
|
10
|
+
- Market data always reads from prod API (public, no auth). Demo data is stale/fake.
|
|
11
|
+
- Paper trader uses orderbook for real best bid/ask, not market summary (which can be stale).
|
|
12
|
+
- Orderbook fields are `yes_dollars` and `no_dollars`, each entry is [price_str, quantity_str].
|
|
13
|
+
|
|
14
|
+
## Observations
|
|
15
|
+
|
|
16
|
+
### 2026-04-04 — First Cycle
|
|
17
|
+
|
|
18
|
+
**Market regime:** Trump cabinet shakeup in progress. Bondi fired Apr 2, more exits under discussion (Patel, Chavez-DeRemer, Driscoll, Lutnick). This creates a cluster of correlated binary events on Kalshi.
|
|
19
|
+
|
|
20
|
+
**Key lesson: Check for already-resolved events.** The Bondi "leaves before Apr 5" market was still trading at 82-83c YES despite her firing being confirmed 2 days earlier by every major outlet. This is near-arbitrage — the market lags real-world resolution. Always check if events have already occurred before looking at the price.
|
|
21
|
+
|
|
22
|
+
**Cabinet departure markets:** These tend to have multiple timeframes (Apr 5, Apr 9, Apr 16, May 1). The shorter-dated ones offer better returns when the event has occurred but the market hasn't caught up. The longer-dated ones are more speculative.
|
|
23
|
+
|
|
24
|
+
**Chavez-DeRemer thesis:** IG investigation + forced aide departures + Trump frustration + pattern of recent firings = elevated probability above market's 43%. Estimated 55-60%. Key risk: Trump has backed off before and says he wants to avoid "massive shake-up." Monitor for news of actual firing or explicit statement she stays.
|
|
25
|
+
|
|
26
|
+
**Passed on:**
|
|
27
|
+
- Kash Patel FBI exit (26.5%) — too uncertain, no concrete indicators beyond speculation
|
|
28
|
+
- IPO markets — all illiquid, wide spreads, low volume. Not worth the capital lockup.
|
|
29
|
+
- Greenland purchase (0.5%) — correctly priced near zero
|
|
30
|
+
|
|
31
|
+
**Trades executed:**
|
|
32
|
+
1. KXBONDIOUT-26APR-APR05 YES @ 82c × 10 — near-certain resolution, expected +$1.80
|
|
33
|
+
2. KXDEREMEROUT-26-MAY01 YES @ 44c × 5 — medium confidence, 13pp estimated edge
|
|
34
|
+
|
|
35
|
+
### 2026-04-04 — Second Cycle
|
|
36
|
+
|
|
37
|
+
**Market regime:** Iran war week 6, strong March jobs report, rising mortgage rates (6.46%). AG Bondi fired, Zeldin likely replacement. Cabinet anxiety continues.
|
|
38
|
+
|
|
39
|
+
**Greenland trade:** Bought NO × 8 @ 65c on KXGREENTERRITORY-29 (US acquires Greenland by Jan 2029). Market at 35-36c YES, my estimate 12%. Edge: 23pp. Key evidence:
|
|
40
|
+
- Denmark & Greenland firmly oppose: PM said "we choose Denmark"
|
|
41
|
+
- Trump pledged at Davos not to use force/tariffs
|
|
42
|
+
- No formal negotiations, only vague "framework" talks
|
|
43
|
+
- Iran war diverts political capital
|
|
44
|
+
- Legal/diplomatic complexity of sovereignty transfer enormous
|
|
45
|
+
Risk: Trump unpredictability, long time horizon (3 years). Capital locked for potentially long period.
|
|
46
|
+
|
|
47
|
+
**Position review:**
|
|
48
|
+
- Bondi YES: Still active, closes Apr 5. Will resolve YES. Hold for settlement.
|
|
49
|
+
- DeRemer YES: Market flat at 42-44c (our entry 44c). IG investigation ongoing, aides forced out. WashPost says she's "vulnerable." But Trump "wants to avoid massive shake-up." Thesis weakened slightly but still alive. HOLD.
|
|
50
|
+
|
|
51
|
+
**Markets researched — no trade:**
|
|
52
|
+
- **Next AG (KXNEXTAG-29):** Zeldin 55%, Blanche 23%. Zeldin is reported frontrunner but not finalized. Market seems efficient. NOTE: Acting/interim don't count — only Senate-confirmed or recess appointments.
|
|
53
|
+
- **OpenAI vs Anthropic IPO (KXOAIANTH-40):** Anthropic at 80% to IPO first. Both targeting Q4 2026. Anthropic has banks/counsel engaged; OpenAI CFO hedging to 2027. My estimate ~70-75% Anthropic. Edge only 5-10pp — below threshold.
|
|
54
|
+
- **Netflix Top Show Apr 6 (KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26APR06):** XO, Kitty dominates daily chart (#1 with 880 pts vs #2 at 589) but is NOT listed as a market option. If it wins weekly chart, all listed options resolve NO. But edge per contract is thin on the NO side (buying at 91-94c for 6-9c profit).
|
|
55
|
+
- **Next Cabinet Departure (KXCABOUT-26APR):** DeRemer 32-34c, Gabbard 23-26c, Hegseth 16-18c, Lutnick 11-12c. Reporting says DeRemer & Lutnick most vulnerable, Trump privately asking about replacing Gabbard. Roughly efficient pricing.
|
|
56
|
+
- **2028 Presidential:** Vance 18c, Newsom 18c, Rubio 12c, AOC 5-6c. Too long-dated, didn't find clear edge.
|
|
57
|
+
|
|
58
|
+
**Process lessons:**
|
|
59
|
+
- `kalshi.py scan` is VERY slow (minutes). Use `search` for targeted lookups or direct API calls for bulk queries.
|
|
60
|
+
- Most non-sports Kalshi markets have zero liquidity. The active categories are: Elections, Politics, some Entertainment (Netflix).
|
|
61
|
+
- Sports markets dominate volume. Avoid unless you have a genuine sports analytics edge.
|
|
62
|
+
- The events API with `with_nested_markets` is the fastest way to survey the full market landscape.
|
|
63
|
+
- For scanning, filter by OI > 500 and bid/ask spread ≤ 10c to find tradeable markets quickly.
|
|
64
|
+
|
|
65
|
+
### 2026-04-04 — Third Cycle
|
|
66
|
+
|
|
67
|
+
**Portfolio status:** $19.58 cash, $10.42 deployed across 2 positions. Total bankroll $30.00.
|
|
68
|
+
|
|
69
|
+
**Position review:**
|
|
70
|
+
- **Bondi Apr 5 (KXBONDIOUT-26APR-APR05):** YES @ 82c × 10. Market still at 81-83c despite confirmed firing Apr 2. Closes tonight. Expected settlement: YES → +$1.80. HOLD.
|
|
71
|
+
- **Chavez-DeRemer May 1 (KXDEREMEROUT-26-MAY01):** YES @ 44c × 5. Market at 42-44c, roughly flat. WaPo Apr 3 confirms "vulnerable." IG investigation, aides forced out, Trump "pondering" changes. Estimate 55-60%. HOLD.
|
|
72
|
+
|
|
73
|
+
**Bondi market still hasn't settled despite early-close condition.** The Apr 5 market has an early_close_condition ("closes early if individual leaves role") and settlement_timer of 1800s, yet it's been 2 days since the firing. Kalshi settlement mechanics may be manual/delayed. Also: the longer-dated Bondi markets (Apr 9: 85-86c, Apr 16: 85-86c, May 1: 93-94c) all show similar discounts. This looks like systematic settlement lag, not genuine uncertainty.
|
|
74
|
+
|
|
75
|
+
**Cabinet departure pricing update:**
|
|
76
|
+
- Lutnick Commerce (16-17c): Vulnerable per WaPo, fallen out of favor with Susie Wiles. Epstein connection + COI. My estimate 20-25%. Edge ~5-8pp — PASS (below threshold).
|
|
77
|
+
- Kash Patel FBI (36-39c): "Active discussions" per Atlantic, multiple scandals, class action from fired agents. UP from 26.5% last cycle. My estimate 35-45%. Market roughly efficient now — PASS.
|
|
78
|
+
- Gabbard DNI (17-18c): Less concrete evidence. PASS.
|
|
79
|
+
|
|
80
|
+
**Key news this cycle:**
|
|
81
|
+
- Trump imposed 100% tariff on patented pharma products (120-180 day phase-in)
|
|
82
|
+
- 50% tariff on steel/aluminum/copper articles
|
|
83
|
+
- Supreme Court previously struck down IEEPA tariffs (Feb 2026), currently 10% blanket tariff in effect
|
|
84
|
+
- No pharma or CPI/inflation markets found on Kalshi to trade this angle
|
|
85
|
+
|
|
86
|
+
**No new trades this cycle.** Market scan yielded 26 markets but none with >10pp edge. The cabinet departure cluster remains the most interesting theme but prices have adjusted since Bondi's firing. Waiting for Bondi settlement and monitoring DeRemer/Lutnick news.
|
|
87
|
+
|
|
88
|
+
### 2026-04-04 — Fourth Cycle
|
|
89
|
+
|
|
90
|
+
**Portfolio status:** $12.79 cash, $17.21 deployed across 5 positions (max slots filled).
|
|
91
|
+
|
|
92
|
+
**New trades — Gas price markets (KXAAAGASW-26APR06):**
|
|
93
|
+
1. **Gas >$4.130 YES @ 42c × 2** — AAA national avg $4.104 on Apr 4, strong upward trend (+$0.128/week, +$0.013/day). Expected price Apr 6: $4.128-4.140. Market crashed from 66% to 42% after one slower day. My estimate 50-55%. Edge: ~10pp.
|
|
94
|
+
2. **Gas >$4.140 YES @ 18c × 4** — Higher-risk complement. At weekly drift rate, expected price right at boundary ($4.140). Market at 17%, my estimate 25%. Edge: 7pp (borderline but good ROI). If gas continues at weekly pace, both hit.
|
|
95
|
+
|
|
96
|
+
**Key thesis:** Gas prices surging due to tariffs — up $0.906 in one month, exceeding $4/gal nationally for first time in 4 years. The daily rate appears to be decelerating (from $0.030/day monthly avg to $0.018/day weekly avg to $0.013 yesterday). The market is pricing in deceleration; I think the weekly rate ($0.018/day) is more representative than a single slow day.
|
|
97
|
+
|
|
98
|
+
**Research findings — markets passed on:**
|
|
99
|
+
- **CPI March (KXCPIYOY-26MAR-T3.3):** Closes Apr 10. Market at 51% for >3.3%. Feb CPI was 2.4%; market pricing massive tariff shock to ~3.3%. Very liquid (76K OI, 1c spread). Don't have enough tariff-to-CPI modeling to have conviction against a liquid market. PASS.
|
|
100
|
+
- **Dallas temp <72°F (KXHIGHTDAL-26APR04-T72):** Market at 1% (crashed from 29%). NWS forecast said 71°F but market has real-time obs. Can't compete with locals tracking actual temperature. PASS.
|
|
101
|
+
- **NYC temp:** Similar to Dallas — market already priced. PASS.
|
|
102
|
+
- **DHS CBP Commissioner (KXCOMMISHCBP):** 0 open markets.
|
|
103
|
+
|
|
104
|
+
**Process lessons:**
|
|
105
|
+
- The `search` function only checks the first 200 events — most short-term markets (weather, CPI, gas) are in SERIES not events. To find them: query `/series` endpoint, filter by keyword, then query `/markets` per series.
|
|
106
|
+
- Gas price markets use AAA daily price on the specific date. Settlement source: gasprices.aaa.com.
|
|
107
|
+
- CPI markets reference BLS one-decimal-place value for 12-month YoY.
|
|
108
|
+
- Weather markets reference NWS Climatological Report (Daily), NOT AccuWeather or Google Weather.
|
|
109
|
+
- When a weather market crashes intraday, the market likely has real-time obs. Don't fade it unless you also have current obs.
|
|
110
|
+
- Gas price trends: use weekly average daily change, not just yesterday's change, for drift estimation.
|
|
111
|
+
|
|
112
|
+
### 2026-04-04 — Fifth Cycle
|
|
113
|
+
|
|
114
|
+
**Portfolio status:** $12.79 cash, $17.21 deployed across 5 positions (max slots). Unrealized P&L: -$0.59.
|
|
115
|
+
|
|
116
|
+
**Position review — all HOLD:**
|
|
117
|
+
- **Bondi Apr 5 YES @ 82c × 10:** Closes tonight. Fired Apr 2, confirmed by all outlets. Todd Blanche installed as acting AG. Market still at 81c — puzzling discount. Possible risk: Bondi said she'd "transition over the next month," so Kalshi might interpret she hasn't formally "left" yet. But rules say "removal" counts. Expecting YES settlement → +$1.80.
|
|
118
|
+
- **DeRemer May 1 YES @ 44c × 5:** Market at 43c. No firing yet. Trump "mulling" changes per NBC Apr 3. She's "vulnerable" per WaPo. IG probe ongoing. Thesis intact but no new hard evidence. HOLD.
|
|
119
|
+
- **Greenland NO @ 65c × 8:** Market at 64c. No developments. HOLD.
|
|
120
|
+
- **Gas $4.130 YES @ 42c × 2:** DOWN to 30c (-28.6%). AAA daily prices show deceleration: Apr 1 $4.06, Apr 2 $4.081, Apr 3 $4.091, Apr 4 $4.104. Daily increases: +$0.021, +$0.010, +$0.013. Need +$0.026 in 2 days — tight. Revised estimate: 35-40% (was 50-55%). Edge gone. But selling recovers only $0.60 vs $0.84 cost. Better to let expire and take the binary outcome.
|
|
121
|
+
- **Gas $4.140 YES @ 18c × 4:** DOWN to 15c (-16.7%). Need +$0.036 in 2 days. Revised estimate: 15-20%. No edge. Same logic — let expire.
|
|
122
|
+
|
|
123
|
+
**Key lesson: Gas price deceleration was real.** The market priced it correctly — the one-day slowdown I dismissed as noise was actually the start of a trend shift. Daily increases went from $0.021 → $0.010 → $0.013. The weekly average ($0.018/day) overestimated the forward rate. Lesson: when a trend decelerates, the market's reaction is usually right. Don't fade momentum shifts in commodity markets on a 2-day horizon.
|
|
124
|
+
|
|
125
|
+
**No new trades.** At max capacity (5/5 positions) with no compelling reason to exit and re-enter. Waiting for Bondi settlement to free a slot and capital.
|
|
126
|
+
|
|
127
|
+
### 2026-04-04 — Sixth Cycle (LIVE TRADING)
|
|
128
|
+
|
|
129
|
+
**Portfolio reset:** DB was cleared. Starting fresh with $15 bankroll, 0 positions. Previous paper trades lost ~$15 (gas price bets lost, other positions unclear).
|
|
130
|
+
|
|
131
|
+
**Trade executed:**
|
|
132
|
+
1. **KXBONDIOUT-APR09 YES @ 80c × 5** — LIVE order on Kalshi. Cost: $4.00 + $0.06 fees. Near-arbitrage: Bondi confirmed fired Apr 2 by every major outlet (CNN, NPR, WaPo, Fox, NBC, CBS). Todd Blanche serving as acting AG. Market at 80c = 20c discount on a resolved event. Expected profit: $0.94 if settled YES.
|
|
133
|
+
|
|
134
|
+
**Bondi cluster mispricing:** Apr 5 at 82-84c, Apr 9 at 79-80c, Apr 16 at 81-82c, May 1 at 89-90c. The Apr 9 market is CHEAPER than Apr 5 despite having 4 more days — pure microstructure inefficiency. Chose Apr 9 for best value. All should resolve YES identically.
|
|
135
|
+
|
|
136
|
+
**Markets passed on:**
|
|
137
|
+
- **DeRemer May 1 (42-44c):** Revised estimate down to 48-53%. She's survived 3+ months of scandal (IG probe since Jan, aides quit, drinking/affair allegations). Trump says "avoid massive shake-up." Edge 4-9pp — below threshold for soft evidence.
|
|
138
|
+
- **Lutnick May 1 (12-15c):** 20-25% estimate, edge 5-8pp. Below threshold.
|
|
139
|
+
- **Kash Patel May 1 (31-37c):** 6c spread, illiquid. Market roughly efficient.
|
|
140
|
+
- **Next AG (KXNEXTAG-29):** Zero liquidity across all candidates.
|
|
141
|
+
- **IPO markets:** All illiquid, wide spreads.
|
|
142
|
+
- **Supreme Court tariff (KXDJTVOSTARIFFS):** Already resolved NO (Feb 2026). SCOTUS struck down IEEPA tariffs.
|
|
143
|
+
|
|
144
|
+
**Process notes:**
|
|
145
|
+
- `search` function returns empty for many queries — it only matches event titles. For broader discovery, `quick` scan is more reliable.
|
|
146
|
+
- Most Kalshi markets outside the top 5-10 by volume have zero liquidity. The platform is dominated by a few active political/macro themes.
|
|
147
|
+
- DB was reset between sessions — trade history lost. Need to check if this is intentional or a bug.
|
|
148
|
+
- Live trading is now active. Fees are real ($0.06 on this trade = ~1.5% of cost).
|
|
149
|
+
|
|
150
|
+
### 2026-04-04 — User Rationale: Trump/Iran
|
|
151
|
+
|
|
152
|
+
**Thesis:** User asked about Trump's stance on Iran.
|
|
153
|
+
|
|
154
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**Research findings:** US is in week 6 of active war with Iran ("Operation Epic Fury"). Timeline: nuclear talks in Oman collapsed late Feb → US/Israel strikes began Feb 28 → Trump addressed nation Apr 1 saying war "nearing completion" → threatened to destroy power plants/desalination by Apr 6 deadline if no deal. Iran denies any negotiations. This is the dominant geopolitical story globally.
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**Market availability:** Kalshi has virtually nothing tradeable on Iran. Only a "Next Supreme Leader" market with zero volume. No war outcome, ceasefire, oil price, Strait of Hormuz, or sanctions markets exist on the platform.
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**Lesson:** Kalshi's market coverage is extremely thin on geopolitical/war themes. The biggest story in the world has no tradeable market. The platform is dominated by US politics (cabinet departures), entertainment (Netflix), weather, and gas prices. For Iran-related trading, would need a different platform (Polymarket, Metaculus, etc.).
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