opencandle 0.4.0 → 0.6.0

package/dist/tools/portfolio/predictions.js

@@ -1,43 +1,29 @@
 import { Type } from "@sinclair/typebox";
-import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, existsSync } from "node:fs";
-import { getQuote } from "../../providers/yahoo-finance.js";
+import { isZeroFilledQuote, resolveYahooInstrument } from "../../market-state/resolve.js";
+import { resolveInstrumentForMutation } from "../../market-state/resolve-for-mutation.js";
+import { MarketStateService } from "../../market-state/service.js";
+import { initDefaultDatabase } from "../../memory/sqlite.js";
 import { wrapProvider } from "../../providers/wrap-provider.js";
-import { ensureParentDir, getPredictionsPath } from "../../infra/opencandle-paths.js";
-function loadPredictions() {
-    const predictionsPath = getPredictionsPath();
-    if (!existsSync(predictionsPath))
-        return [];
+import { getQuote } from "../../providers/yahoo-finance.js";
+export async function recordPrediction(params) {
+    const db = initDefaultDatabase();
+    const service = new MarketStateService(db);
     try {
-        return JSON.parse(readFileSync(predictionsPath, "utf-8"));
+        const instrument = await resolveYahooInstrument(params.symbol);
+        const record = service.recordPrediction({
+            instrument,
+            direction: params.direction,
+            conviction: params.conviction,
+            entryPrice: params.entryPrice,
+            targetPrice: params.targetPrice,
+            timeframeDays: params.timeframeDays,
+        });
+        return predictionRecordToPrediction(record, params.timeframeDays);
     }
-    catch {
-        return [];
+    finally {
+        db.close();
     }
 }
-function savePredictions(predictions) {
-    const predictionsPath = getPredictionsPath();
-    ensureParentDir(predictionsPath);
-    writeFileSync(predictionsPath, JSON.stringify(predictions, null, 2));
-}
-export function recordPrediction(params) {
-    const predictions = loadPredictions();
-    const now = new Date();
-    const expires = new Date(now);
-    expires.setDate(expires.getDate() + params.timeframeDays);
-    const prediction = {
-        symbol: params.symbol.toUpperCase(),
-        direction: params.direction,
-        conviction: params.conviction,
-        entryPrice: params.entryPrice,
-        targetPrice: params.targetPrice,
-        date: now.toISOString().split("T")[0],
-        expiresAt: expires.toISOString().split("T")[0],
-        timeframeDays: params.timeframeDays,
-    };
-    predictions.push(prediction);
-    savePredictions(predictions);
-    return prediction;
-}
 export function checkPredictions(predictions, currentPrices, now = new Date()) {
     if (predictions.length === 0) {
         return { total: 0, open: 0, correct: 0, wrong: 0, hitRate: 0, weightedHitRate: 0, details: [] };
@@ -49,21 +35,55 @@ export function checkPredictions(predictions, currentPrices, now = new Date()) {
     const nowStr = now.toISOString().split("T")[0];
     for (const p of predictions) {
         const currentPrice = currentPrices.get(p.symbol);
-        if (currentPrice == null)
+        if (currentPrice == null) {
+            openCount++;
+            details.push({
+                symbol: p.symbol,
+                direction: p.direction,
+                conviction: p.conviction,
+                entryPrice: p.entryPrice,
+                currentPrice: null,
+                pnlPercent: null,
+                correct: false,
+                status: "open",
+                dataGap: "quote unavailable",
+            });
             continue;
+        }
+        if (!Number.isFinite(p.entryPrice) || p.entryPrice <= 0) {
+            openCount++;
+            details.push({
+                symbol: p.symbol,
+                direction: p.direction,
+                conviction: p.conviction,
+                entryPrice: p.entryPrice,
+                targetPrice: p.targetPrice,
+                currentPrice,
+                pnlPercent: null,
+                correct: false,
+                status: "open",
+                dataGap: "invalid entry price",
+            });
+            continue;
+        }
         const isExpired = p.expiresAt <= nowStr;
         const pnlPercent = (currentPrice - p.entryPrice) / p.entryPrice;
         if (!isExpired) {
             openCount++;
+            const targetHit = p.targetPrice != null &&
+                ((p.direction === "bullish" && currentPrice >= p.targetPrice) ||
+                    (p.direction === "bearish" && currentPrice <= p.targetPrice));
             details.push({
                 symbol: p.symbol,
                 direction: p.direction,
                 conviction: p.conviction,
                 entryPrice: p.entryPrice,
+                targetPrice: p.targetPrice,
                 currentPrice,
                 pnlPercent,
                 correct: false,
                 status: "open",
+                targetHit,
             });
             continue;
         }
@@ -97,76 +117,306 @@ export function checkPredictions(predictions, currentPrices, now = new Date()) {
     };
 }
 const params = Type.Object({
-    action: Type.Union([Type.Literal("record"), Type.Literal("check")], { description: "record: save a new prediction. check: evaluate all predictions against current prices." }),
+    action: Type.Union([Type.Literal("record"), Type.Literal("check"), Type.Literal("cancel")], {
+        description: "record: save a new prediction. check: evaluate all predictions against current prices. cancel: close an open prediction without scoring it.",
+    }),
+    id: Type.Optional(Type.Integer({ minimum: 1, description: "Prediction id (required for cancel)" })),
     symbol: Type.Optional(Type.String({ description: "Ticker symbol (required for record)" })),
-    direction: Type.Optional(Type.Union([Type.Literal("bullish"), Type.Literal("bearish"), Type.Literal("neutral")], { description: "Predicted direction (required for record)" })),
-    conviction: Type.Optional(Type.Number({ description: "Conviction 1-10 (required for record)" })),
-    entry_price: Type.Optional(Type.Number({ description: "Entry price at time of prediction (required for record)" })),
-    target_price: Type.Optional(Type.Number({ description: "Optional target price" })),
-    timeframe_days: Type.Optional(Type.Number({ description: "Timeframe in days for the prediction (default: 30)" })),
+    direction: Type.Optional(Type.Union([Type.Literal("bullish"), Type.Literal("bearish"), Type.Literal("neutral")], {
+        description: "Predicted direction (required for record)",
+    })),
+    conviction: Type.Optional(Type.Integer({ minimum: 1, maximum: 10, description: "Conviction 1-10 (required for record)" })),
+    entry_price: Type.Optional(Type.Number({
+        exclusiveMinimum: 0,
+        description: "Entry price at time of prediction (required for record)",
+    })),
+    target_price: Type.Optional(Type.Number({ exclusiveMinimum: 0, description: "Optional target price" })),
+    timeframe_days: Type.Optional(Type.Integer({
+        minimum: 1,
+        maximum: 3650,
+        description: "Timeframe in days for the prediction (default: 30)",
+    })),
 });
 export const predictionsTool = {
     name: "track_prediction",
     label: "Prediction Tracker",
     description: "Track your analysis predictions and measure accuracy over time. Record: save a directional prediction with conviction. Check: evaluate all predictions against current prices, compute hit rate and conviction-weighted accuracy. Inspired by ATLAS's Darwinian scoring approach.",
     parameters: params,
-    async execute(toolCallId, args) {
+    async execute(_toolCallId, args) {
+        if (args.action === "cancel") {
+            if (args.id == null) {
+                throw new Error("id is required for cancel action.");
+            }
+            const db = initDefaultDatabase();
+            try {
+                const service = new MarketStateService(db);
+                const existing = service.listPredictions().find((record) => record.id === args.id);
+                if (existing == null) {
+                    return {
+                        content: [{ type: "text", text: `Prediction #${args.id} not found.` }],
+                        details: null,
+                    };
+                }
+                if (existing.status !== "open") {
+                    return {
+                        content: [
+                            { type: "text", text: `Prediction #${args.id} is already ${existing.status}.` },
+                        ],
+                        details: existing,
+                    };
+                }
+                const now = new Date().toISOString();
+                const cancelled = service.updatePredictionOutcome({
+                    id: args.id,
+                    status: "cancelled",
+                    resolvedAt: now,
+                    result: { reason: "user_cancelled" },
+                });
+                return {
+                    content: [
+                        { type: "text", text: `Cancelled prediction #${args.id} for ${cancelled.symbol}.` },
+                    ],
+                    details: cancelled,
+                };
+            }
+            finally {
+                db.close();
+            }
+        }
         if (args.action === "record") {
-            if (!args.symbol || !args.direction || !args.conviction || !args.entry_price) {
+            if (!args.symbol || !args.direction || args.conviction == null || args.entry_price == null) {
                 throw new Error("symbol, direction, conviction, and entry_price are required for record action.");
             }
-            const prediction = recordPrediction({
-                symbol: args.symbol,
-                direction: args.direction,
-                conviction: args.conviction,
-                entryPrice: args.entry_price,
-                targetPrice: args.target_price,
-                timeframeDays: args.timeframe_days ?? 30,
-            });
+            if (!Number.isInteger(args.conviction) || args.conviction < 1 || args.conviction > 10) {
+                throw new Error("conviction must be between 1 and 10.");
+            }
+            if (args.entry_price <= 0) {
+                throw new Error("entry_price must be greater than 0.");
+            }
+            if (args.target_price != null && args.target_price <= 0) {
+                throw new Error("target_price must be greater than 0.");
+            }
+            if (args.timeframe_days != null &&
+                (!Number.isInteger(args.timeframe_days) ||
+                    args.timeframe_days < 1 ||
+                    args.timeframe_days > 3650)) {
+                throw new Error("timeframe_days must be an integer between 1 and 3650.");
+            }
+            const resolution = await resolveInstrumentForMutation(args.symbol);
+            if (resolution.status === "needs_selection") {
+                return {
+                    content: [
+                        {
+                            type: "text",
+                            text: `Could not verify ${resolution.query}. Choose one of the returned candidates before recording the prediction.`,
+                        },
+                    ],
+                    details: resolution,
+                };
+            }
+            const db = initDefaultDatabase();
+            let prediction;
+            try {
+                const service = new MarketStateService(db);
+                const record = service.recordPrediction({
+                    instrument: resolution.instrument,
+                    direction: args.direction,
+                    conviction: args.conviction,
+                    entryPrice: args.entry_price,
+                    targetPrice: args.target_price,
+                    timeframeDays: args.timeframe_days ?? 30,
+                });
+                prediction = predictionRecordToPrediction(record, args.timeframe_days ?? 30);
+            }
+            finally {
+                db.close();
+            }
             return {
-                content: [{ type: "text", text: `Recorded: ${prediction.symbol} ${prediction.direction} (conviction ${prediction.conviction}/10) at $${prediction.entryPrice}. Expires ${prediction.expiresAt}.` }],
+                content: [
+                    {
+                        type: "text",
+                        text: `Recorded: ${prediction.symbol} ${prediction.direction} (conviction ${prediction.conviction}/10) at $${prediction.entryPrice}. Expires ${prediction.expiresAt}.`,
+                    },
+                ],
                 details: prediction,
             };
         }
-        // Check action
-        const predictions = loadPredictions();
-        if (predictions.length === 0) {
+        const db = initDefaultDatabase();
+        try {
+            const service = new MarketStateService(db);
+            const records = service.listPredictions();
+            const openRecords = records.filter((record) => record.status === "open");
+            const predictions = openRecords.map((record) => predictionRecordToPrediction(record));
+            const historicalDetails = storedResolvedPredictionDetails(records);
+            if (records.length === 0) {
+                return {
+                    content: [
+                        {
+                            type: "text",
+                            text: "No predictions recorded yet. Use record action to track your calls.",
+                        },
+                    ],
+                    details: null,
+                };
+            }
+            if (openRecords.length === 0) {
+                if (historicalDetails.length > 0) {
+                    const result = predictionResultFromDetails(historicalDetails);
+                    return {
+                        content: [{ type: "text", text: formatPredictionScorecard(result) }],
+                        details: result,
+                    };
+                }
+                return {
+                    content: [{ type: "text", text: "No open predictions to check." }],
+                    details: checkPredictions([], new Map()),
+                };
+            }
+            const symbols = [...new Set(predictions.map((p) => p.symbol))];
+            const priceMap = new Map();
+            await Promise.all(symbols.map(async (sym) => {
+                const result = await wrapProvider("yahoo", () => getQuote(sym));
+                if (result.status === "ok" && !result.stale && !isZeroFilledQuote(result.data)) {
+                    priceMap.set(sym, result.data.price);
+                }
+            }));
+            const currentResult = checkPredictions(predictions, priceMap);
+            persistPredictionOutcomes(service, openRecords, currentResult);
+            const result = predictionResultFromDetails([...historicalDetails, ...currentResult.details]);
             return {
-                content: [{ type: "text", text: "No predictions recorded yet. Use record action to track your calls." }],
-                details: null,
+                content: [{ type: "text", text: formatPredictionScorecard(result) }],
+                details: result,
             };
         }
-        // Fetch current prices for all symbols
-        const symbols = [...new Set(predictions.map((p) => p.symbol))];
-        const priceMap = new Map();
-        await Promise.all(symbols.map(async (sym) => {
-            const result = await wrapProvider("yahoo", () => getQuote(sym));
-            if (result.status === "ok") {
-                priceMap.set(sym, result.data.price);
-            }
-            else {
-                // Skip symbols that are unavailable
-            }
-        }));
-        const result = checkPredictions(predictions, priceMap);
-        const resolved = result.correct + result.wrong;
-        const lines = [
-            `**Prediction Scorecard** — ${result.total} predictions (${resolved} resolved, ${result.open} open)`,
-            ``,
-            `Hit Rate: ${(result.hitRate * 100).toFixed(0)}% (${result.correct}/${resolved})`,
-            `Weighted Hit Rate: ${(result.weightedHitRate * 100).toFixed(0)}% (by conviction)`,
-            ``,
-            ...result.details.map((d) => {
-                const icon = d.status === "open" ? "~" : d.correct ? "+" : "-";
-                const sign = d.pnlPercent >= 0 ? "+" : "";
-                const label = d.status === "open" ? " (open)" : "";
-                return `  [${icon}] ${d.symbol}: ${d.direction} (conv ${d.conviction}) → $${d.entryPrice.toFixed(2)} → $${d.currentPrice.toFixed(2)} (${sign}${(d.pnlPercent * 100).toFixed(1)}%)${label}`;
-            }),
-        ];
-        return {
-            content: [{ type: "text", text: lines.join("\n") }],
-            details: result,
-        };
+        finally {
+            db.close();
+        }
     },
 };
+function persistPredictionOutcomes(service, records, result) {
+    const now = new Date().toISOString();
+    const usedRecordIds = new Set();
+    for (const detail of result.details) {
+        if (detail.status !== "resolved")
+            continue;
+        const record = findMatchingOpenRecord(records, detail, usedRecordIds);
+        if (record == null)
+            continue;
+        usedRecordIds.add(record.id);
+        service.updatePredictionOutcome({
+            id: record.id,
+            status: "resolved",
+            resolvedAt: now,
+            result: {
+                currentPrice: detail.currentPrice,
+                pnlPercent: detail.pnlPercent,
+                correct: detail.correct,
+            },
+        });
+    }
+    for (const record of records) {
+        if (usedRecordIds.has(record.id))
+            continue;
+        if (record.expiresAt > now)
+            continue;
+        if (result.details.some((detail) => detail.status === "open" && matchesPredictionRecord(record, detail))) {
+            continue;
+        }
+        service.updatePredictionOutcome({
+            id: record.id,
+            status: "expired",
+            resolvedAt: now,
+            result: { reason: "quote_unavailable" },
+        });
+    }
+}
+function storedResolvedPredictionDetails(records) {
+    return records.flatMap((record) => {
+        if (record.status !== "resolved" || record.resultJson == null)
+            return [];
+        const result = JSON.parse(record.resultJson);
+        if (typeof result.currentPrice !== "number" ||
+            typeof result.pnlPercent !== "number" ||
+            typeof result.correct !== "boolean") {
+            return [];
+        }
+        return [
+            {
+                symbol: record.symbol,
+                direction: record.direction,
+                conviction: record.conviction,
+                entryPrice: record.entryPrice,
+                currentPrice: result.currentPrice,
+                pnlPercent: result.pnlPercent,
+                correct: result.correct,
+                status: "resolved",
+            },
+        ];
+    });
+}
+function predictionResultFromDetails(details) {
+    const resolved = details.filter((detail) => detail.status === "resolved");
+    const correct = resolved.filter((detail) => detail.correct);
+    const totalConviction = resolved.reduce((sum, detail) => sum + detail.conviction, 0);
+    const correctConviction = correct.reduce((sum, detail) => sum + detail.conviction, 0);
+    return {
+        total: details.length,
+        open: details.filter((detail) => detail.status === "open").length,
+        correct: correct.length,
+        wrong: resolved.length - correct.length,
+        hitRate: resolved.length > 0 ? correct.length / resolved.length : 0,
+        weightedHitRate: totalConviction > 0 ? correctConviction / totalConviction : 0,
+        details,
+    };
+}
+function formatPredictionScorecard(result) {
+    const resolved = result.correct + result.wrong;
+    const lines = [
+        `**Prediction Scorecard** — ${result.total} predictions (${resolved} resolved, ${result.open} open)`,
+        ``,
+        `Hit Rate: ${(result.hitRate * 100).toFixed(0)}% (${result.correct}/${resolved})`,
+        `Weighted Hit Rate: ${(result.weightedHitRate * 100).toFixed(0)}% (by conviction)`,
+        ``,
+        ...result.details.map((d) => {
+            const icon = d.status === "open" ? "~" : d.correct ? "+" : "-";
+            if (d.currentPrice == null || d.pnlPercent == null) {
+                return `${icon} ${d.symbol} ${d.direction}: quote unavailable (open)`;
+            }
+            const sign = d.pnlPercent >= 0 ? "+" : "";
+            const label = d.status === "open"
+                ? d.targetHit && d.targetPrice != null
+                    ? ` (open — target hit: $${d.targetPrice.toFixed(2)} reached before expiry; resolve or let it ride)`
+                    : " (open)"
+                : "";
+            return `  [${icon}] ${d.symbol}: ${d.direction} (conv ${d.conviction}) → $${d.entryPrice.toFixed(2)} → $${d.currentPrice.toFixed(2)} (${sign}${(d.pnlPercent * 100).toFixed(1)}%)${label}`;
+        }),
+    ];
+    return lines.join("\n");
+}
+function findMatchingOpenRecord(records, detail, usedRecordIds) {
+    return (records.find((record) => !usedRecordIds.has(record.id) && matchesPredictionRecord(record, detail)) ?? null);
+}
+function matchesPredictionRecord(record, detail) {
+    return (record.symbol === detail.symbol &&
+        record.direction === detail.direction &&
+        record.conviction === detail.conviction &&
+        record.entryPrice === detail.entryPrice);
+}
+function predictionRecordToPrediction(record, explicitTimeframeDays) {
+    const openedAt = new Date(record.openedAt);
+    const expiresAt = new Date(record.expiresAt);
+    const timeframeDays = explicitTimeframeDays ?? Math.round((expiresAt.getTime() - openedAt.getTime()) / 86_400_000);
+    return {
+        id: record.id,
+        instrumentId: record.instrumentId,
+        symbol: record.symbol,
+        direction: record.direction,
+        conviction: record.conviction,
+        entryPrice: record.entryPrice,
+        targetPrice: record.targetPrice ?? undefined,
+        date: record.openedAt.split("T")[0],
+        expiresAt: record.expiresAt.split("T")[0],
+        timeframeDays,
+    };
+}
 //# sourceMappingURL=predictions.js.map

package/dist/tools/portfolio/predictions.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/tools/portfolio/risk-analysis.d.ts

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ import type { AgentTool } from "@earendil-works/pi-agent-core";
 import type { RiskMetrics } from "../../types/portfolio.js";
 declare const params: import("@sinclair/typebox").TObject<{
     symbol: import("@sinclair/typebox").TString;
-    period: import("@sinclair/typebox").TOptional<import("@sinclair/typebox").TString>;
+    period: import("@sinclair/typebox").TOptional<import("@sinclair/typebox").TUnion<import("@sinclair/typebox").TLiteral<"6mo" | "1y" | "2y">[]>>;
 }>;
 export declare const riskAnalysisTool: AgentTool<typeof params, RiskMetrics>;
 export declare function computeRiskMetrics(symbol: string, closes: number[]): RiskMetrics;

package/dist/tools/portfolio/risk-analysis.js

@@ -1,22 +1,27 @@
 import { Type } from "@sinclair/typebox";
-import { getHistory } from "../../providers/yahoo-finance.js";
 import { wrapProvider } from "../../providers/wrap-provider.js";
+import { getHistory } from "../../providers/yahoo-finance.js";
+const RISK_PERIODS = ["6mo", "1y", "2y"];
 const params = Type.Object({
     symbol: Type.String({ description: "Stock ticker symbol (e.g. AAPL, MSFT, SPY)" }),
-    period: Type.Optional(Type.String({ description: "Historical period for analysis: 6mo, 1y, 2y. Default: 1y" })),
+    period: Type.Optional(Type.Union(RISK_PERIODS.map((period) => Type.Literal(period)), {
+        description: "Historical period for analysis: 6mo, 1y, 2y. Default: 1y",
+    })),
 });
 export const riskAnalysisTool = {
     name: "analyze_risk",
     label: "Risk Analysis",
     description: "Compute risk metrics for a stock: annualized return, volatility, Sharpe ratio, max drawdown, and Value at Risk (95%). All computed locally from historical data.",
     parameters: params,
-    async execute(toolCallId, args) {
+    async execute(_toolCallId, args) {
         const symbol = args.symbol.toUpperCase();
         const period = args.period ?? "1y";
         const result = await wrapProvider("yahoo", () => getHistory(symbol, period, "1d"));
         if (result.status === "unavailable") {
             return {
-                content: [{ type: "text", text: `⚠ Risk analysis unavailable for ${symbol} (${result.reason}).` }],
+                content: [
+                    { type: "text", text: `⚠ Risk analysis unavailable for ${symbol} (${result.reason}).` },
+                ],
                 details: null,
             };
         }
@@ -24,11 +29,33 @@ export const riskAnalysisTool = {
         const closes = bars.map((b) => b.close);
         if (closes.length < 30) {
             return {
-                content: [{ type: "text", text: `Insufficient data for risk analysis (need 30+ days, got ${closes.length})` }],
+                content: [
+                    {
+                        type: "text",
+                        text: `Insufficient data for risk analysis (need 30+ days, got ${closes.length})`,
+                    },
+                ],
                 details: null,
             };
         }
-        const metrics = computeRiskMetrics(symbol, closes);
+        let metrics;
+        try {
+            metrics = computeRiskMetrics(symbol, closes);
+        }
+        catch (error) {
+            if (error instanceof Error && error.message === "insufficient usable price history") {
+                return {
+                    content: [
+                        {
+                            type: "text",
+                            text: `Insufficient data for risk analysis (no usable price returns after filtering invalid closes)`,
+                        },
+                    ],
+                    details: null,
+                };
+            }
+            throw error;
+        }
         const text = [
             `**${symbol} Risk Analysis** (${bars[0].date} to ${bars[bars.length - 1].date}, ${closes.length} days)`,
             ``,
@@ -45,6 +72,9 @@ export const riskAnalysisTool = {
 };
 export function computeRiskMetrics(symbol, closes) {
     const dailyReturns = computeDailyReturns(closes);
+    if (dailyReturns.length === 0) {
+        throw new Error("insufficient usable price history");
+    }
     const avgDailyReturn = mean(dailyReturns);
     const dailyVol = stddev(dailyReturns);
     const annualizedReturn = avgDailyReturn * 252;
@@ -66,16 +96,22 @@ export function computeRiskMetrics(symbol, closes) {
 export function computeDailyReturns(prices) {
     const returns = [];
     for (let i = 1; i < prices.length; i++) {
+        if (prices[i - 1] <= 0)
+            continue;
         returns.push((prices[i] - prices[i - 1]) / prices[i - 1]);
     }
     return returns;
 }
 export function computeMaxDrawdown(prices) {
-    let peak = prices[0];
+    let peak = 0;
     let maxDd = 0;
     for (const price of prices) {
+        if (price <= 0 && peak <= 0)
+            continue;
         if (price > peak)
             peak = price;
+        if (peak <= 0)
+            continue;
         const dd = (peak - price) / peak;
         if (dd > maxDd)
             maxDd = dd;
@@ -83,6 +119,9 @@ export function computeMaxDrawdown(prices) {
     return maxDd;
 }
 export function computeVaR(returns, confidence) {
+    if (returns.length === 0) {
+        throw new Error("insufficient usable price history");
+    }
     const sorted = [...returns].sort((a, b) => a - b);
     const idx = Math.floor(sorted.length * confidence);
     return Math.abs(sorted[idx]);