opencandle 0.10.0 → 0.11.1

package/dist/runtime/workflow-types.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"workflow-types.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/runtime/workflow-types.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAQA,qCAAqC;AACrC,MAAM,sBAAsB,GAAqC;IAC/D,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,SAAS,CAAC;IAC/B,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,SAAS,CAAC;IAC3C,SAAS,EAAE,EAAE;IACb,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE;IACV,OAAO,EAAE,EAAE;CACZ,CAAC;AAEF,uDAAuD;AACvD,MAAM,UAAU,qBAAqB,CAAC,IAAgB,EAAE,EAAc;IACpE,OAAO,sBAAsB,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;AACnD,CAAC;AAED,iEAAiE;AACjE,MAAM,UAAU,oBAAoB,CAAC,IAAgB,EAAE,EAAc;IACnE,IAAI,CAAC,qBAAqB,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACrC,MAAM,IAAI,KAAK,CAAC,4BAA4B,IAAI,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IAC9D,CAAC;IACD,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC;AACZ,CAAC;AA0DD,iEAAiE;AACjE,MAAM,UAAU,iBAAiB,CAC/B,KAAa,EACb,YAAoB,EACpB,eAA+C;IAE/C,OAAO;QACL,KAAK;QACL,YAAY;QACZ,KAAK,EAAE,eAAe,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,GAAG,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,SAAkB,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;QAC7E,gBAAgB,EAAE,CAAC;QACnB,MAAM,EAAE,SAAS;QACjB,WAAW,EAAE,IAAI,GAAG,EAAE;QACtB,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE;KACpC,CAAC;AACJ,CAAC"}
+{"version":3,"file":"workflow-types.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/runtime/workflow-types.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAQA,qCAAqC;AACrC,MAAM,sBAAsB,GAAqC;IAC/D,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,SAAS,CAAC;IAC/B,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,QAAQ,EAAE,SAAS,CAAC;IAC3C,SAAS,EAAE,EAAE;IACb,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE;IACV,OAAO,EAAE,EAAE;CACZ,CAAC;AAEF,uDAAuD;AACvD,MAAM,UAAU,qBAAqB,CAAC,IAAgB,EAAE,EAAc;IACpE,OAAO,sBAAsB,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;AACnD,CAAC;AAED,iEAAiE;AACjE,MAAM,UAAU,oBAAoB,CAAC,IAAgB,EAAE,EAAc;IACnE,IAAI,CAAC,qBAAqB,CAAC,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;QACrC,MAAM,IAAI,KAAK,CAAC,4BAA4B,IAAI,MAAM,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;IAC9D,CAAC;IACD,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC;AACZ,CAAC;AA6DD,iEAAiE;AACjE,MAAM,UAAU,iBAAiB,CAC/B,KAAa,EACb,YAAoB,EACpB,eAA+C;IAE/C,OAAO;QACL,KAAK;QACL,YAAY;QACZ,KAAK,EAAE,eAAe,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,GAAG,EAAE,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,GAAG,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,SAAkB,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC;QAC7E,gBAAgB,EAAE,CAAC;QACnB,MAAM,EAAE,SAAS;QACjB,WAAW,EAAE,IAAI,GAAG,EAAE;QACtB,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE;KACpC,CAAC;AACJ,CAAC"}

package/dist/system-prompt.js

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ You are an analyst, not a fiduciary advisor. When asked for entry levels, price
 - **Macro**: get_economic_data, get_fear_greed — FRED economic indicators and market sentiment
 - **Sentiment**: get_reddit_sentiment, get_twitter_sentiment, get_web_sentiment, get_sentiment_trend, get_sentiment_summary — retail and news sentiment from Reddit, Twitter/X, and web sources with historical trends
 - **Options**: get_option_chain — full options chain with strikes, bids/asks, volume, OI, IV, and computed Greeks (delta, gamma, theta, vega, rho)
-- **Portfolio**: track_portfolio, analyze_risk, manage_watchlist, analyze_correlation, track_prediction, manage_alerts, daily_watchlist_report, manage_notifications — position tracking, P&L, Sharpe ratio, VaR, watchlist tracking, durable local alerts, daily watchlist reports, notification history, correlation matrix, and prediction tracking with accuracy scoring
+- **Portfolio**: track_portfolio, analyze_risk, manage_watchlist, analyze_correlation, manage_alerts, daily_watchlist_report, manage_notifications — position tracking, P&L, Sharpe ratio, VaR, watchlist tracking, durable local alerts, daily watchlist reports, notification history, and correlation matrix
 - **User Interaction**: ask_user — ask clarification questions and setup confirmations
 
 ## Analytical Framework

package/dist/tools/fundamentals/comps.d.ts

@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ export interface CompsResult {
     companies: CompanyOverview[];
     metrics: CompsMetric[];
     unavailableSymbols: string[];
+    unavailableReasons: Record<string, string>;
 }
 export declare function computeComps(companies: CompanyOverview[]): CompsResult;
 declare const params: import("@sinclair/typebox").TObject<{

package/dist/tools/fundamentals/comps.js

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ import { getConfig } from "../../config.js";
 import { withCredentialCheck } from "../../onboarding/tool-helpers.js";
 import { getOverview } from "../../providers/alpha-vantage.js";
 import { wrapProvider } from "../../providers/wrap-provider.js";
+import { getYahooCompanyOverview } from "../../providers/yahoo-finance.js";
 const METRIC_DEFS = [
     { name: "P/E", extract: (c) => c.pe, lowerIsBetter: true },
     { name: "Forward P/E", extract: (c) => c.forwardPe, lowerIsBetter: true },
@@ -34,7 +35,7 @@ export function computeComps(companies) {
             : (sorted[0]?.sym ?? "");
         return { metric: def.name, values, median, p25, p75, best, worst };
     });
-    return { companies, metrics, unavailableSymbols: [] };
+    return { companies, metrics, unavailableSymbols: [], unavailableReasons: {} };
 }
 function computeMedian(sorted) {
     if (sorted.length === 0)
@@ -70,18 +71,23 @@ export const compsTool = {
         return withCredentialCheck("alpha_vantage", async () => {
             const config = getConfig();
             const symbols = args.symbols.map((s) => s.toUpperCase());
-            const results = await Promise.all(symbols.map(async (s) => ({
-                symbol: s,
-                result: await wrapProvider("alphavantage", () => getOverview(s, config.alphaVantageApiKey)),
-            })));
             const companies = [];
             const unavailableSymbols = [];
-            for (const { symbol: sym, result: r } of results) {
-                if (r.status === "ok") {
-                    companies.push(r.data);
+            const unavailableReasons = {};
+            for (const sym of symbols) {
+                const alphaResult = await wrapProvider("alphavantage", () => getOverview(sym, config.alphaVantageApiKey));
+                if (alphaResult.status === "ok") {
+                    companies.push(alphaResult.data);
+                    continue;
+                }
+                const yahooResult = await wrapProvider("yahoo", () => getYahooCompanyOverview(sym));
+                if (yahooResult.status === "ok") {
+                    companies.push(yahooResult.data);
                 }
                 else {
                     unavailableSymbols.push(sym);
+                    unavailableReasons[sym] =
+                        `Alpha Vantage: ${alphaResult.reason}; Yahoo Finance: ${yahooResult.reason}`;
                 }
             }
             if (companies.length === 0) {
@@ -97,6 +103,7 @@ export const compsTool = {
             }
             const result = computeComps(companies);
             result.unavailableSymbols = unavailableSymbols;
+            result.unavailableReasons = unavailableReasons;
             const availableSymbols = companies.map((company) => company.symbol);
             const header = `**Comparable Company Analysis**: ${availableSymbols.join(" vs ")}`;
             const rows = result.metrics.map((m) => {
@@ -119,8 +126,12 @@ export const compsTool = {
             const noteLines = unavailableSymbols.length > 0
                 ? ["", `Unavailable fundamentals: ${unavailableSymbols.join(", ")}`]
                 : [];
+            const reasonLines = unavailableSymbols.length > 0
+                ? unavailableSymbols.map((symbol) => `  - ${symbol} (${unavailableReasons[symbol]})`)
+                : [];
             const text = [header, "", symHeader, ...rows, ...noteLines].join("\n");
-            return { content: [{ type: "text", text }], details: result };
+            const textWithReasons = reasonLines.length > 0 ? `${text}\n${reasonLines.join("\n")}` : text;
+            return { content: [{ type: "text", text: textWithReasons }], details: result };
         });
     },
 };

package/dist/tools/fundamentals/comps.js.map

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package/dist/tools/fundamentals/dcf.d.ts

@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@ export interface DCFParams {
     sharesOutstanding: number;
 }
 export declare function computeDCF(params: DCFParams): DCFResult;
-export declare function computeNetDebt(f: FinancialStatement): number;
+export declare function computeNetDebt(f: FinancialStatement): number | null;
 declare const params: import("@sinclair/typebox").TObject<{
     symbol: import("@sinclair/typebox").TString;
     growth_rate: import("@sinclair/typebox").TOptional<import("@sinclair/typebox").TNumber>;

package/dist/tools/fundamentals/dcf.js

@@ -1,11 +1,16 @@
 import { Type } from "@sinclair/typebox";
 import { getConfig } from "../../config.js";
-import { withCredentialCheck } from "../../onboarding/tool-helpers.js";
 import { getFinancials, getOverview } from "../../providers/alpha-vantage.js";
+import { ProviderCredentialError } from "../../providers/provider-credential-error.js";
 import { wrapProvider } from "../../providers/wrap-provider.js";
-import { getQuote } from "../../providers/yahoo-finance.js";
+import { getQuote, getYahooFinancials } from "../../providers/yahoo-finance.js";
 export function computeDCF(params) {
     const { freeCashFlow, growthRate, discountRate, terminalGrowth, years, netDebt, sharesOutstanding, } = params;
+    // Gordon Growth requires discount > terminal growth; a non-positive spread
+    // divides by zero or flips the terminal value's sign.
+    if (discountRate <= terminalGrowth) {
+        throw new Error(`Gordon Growth constraint violated: terminal growth (${(terminalGrowth * 100).toFixed(1)}%) must be below the discount rate (${(discountRate * 100).toFixed(1)}%).`);
+    }
     // Project future cash flows (mid-year convention: discount at year-0.5)
     const projectedCashFlows = [];
     for (let y = 1; y <= years; y++) {
@@ -82,8 +87,29 @@ export function computeNetDebt(f) {
     if (f.totalDebt != null && f.cashAndEquivalents != null) {
         return f.totalDebt - f.cashAndEquivalents;
     }
-    // Fallback: totalLiabilities - totalAssets (negative means net cash position)
-    return f.totalLiabilities - f.totalAssets;
+    return null;
+}
+async function optionalAlphaVantage(apiKey, fn) {
+    if (!apiKey) {
+        return {
+            status: "unavailable",
+            reason: "Alpha Vantage API key not configured",
+            provider: "alphavantage",
+        };
+    }
+    try {
+        return await wrapProvider("alphavantage", () => fn(apiKey));
+    }
+    catch (error) {
+        if (error instanceof ProviderCredentialError) {
+            return {
+                status: "unavailable",
+                reason: `Alpha Vantage credential ${error.reason}`,
+                provider: "alphavantage",
+            };
+        }
+        throw error;
+    }
 }
 const params = Type.Object({
     symbol: Type.String({ description: "Stock ticker symbol (e.g. AAPL, MSFT)" }),
@@ -100,100 +126,188 @@ export const dcfTool = {
     description: "Compute a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) intrinsic value estimate for a stock. Uses free cash flow, growth projections, and a discount rate to estimate what the stock is worth. Returns intrinsic value per share, margin of safety vs current price, and a sensitivity table.",
     parameters: params,
     async execute(_toolCallId, args) {
-        return withCredentialCheck("alpha_vantage", async () => {
-            const symbol = args.symbol.toUpperCase();
-            const config = getConfig();
-            const [overviewResult, financialsResult, quoteResult] = await Promise.all([
-                wrapProvider("alphavantage", () => getOverview(symbol, config.alphaVantageApiKey)),
-                wrapProvider("alphavantage", () => getFinancials(symbol, config.alphaVantageApiKey)),
-                wrapProvider("yahoo", () => getQuote(symbol)),
-            ]);
-            const missing = [];
-            if (overviewResult.status === "unavailable")
-                missing.push(`company overview (${overviewResult.reason})`);
-            if (financialsResult.status === "unavailable")
-                missing.push(`financial statements (${financialsResult.reason})`);
-            if (quoteResult.status === "unavailable")
-                missing.push(`stock quote (${quoteResult.reason})`);
-            if (financialsResult.status === "unavailable" || quoteResult.status === "unavailable") {
+        const symbol = args.symbol.toUpperCase();
+        const config = getConfig();
+        const alphaVantageApiKey = config.alphaVantageApiKey;
+        const [alphaVantageFinancialsResult, quoteResult] = await Promise.all([
+            optionalAlphaVantage(alphaVantageApiKey, (apiKey) => getFinancials(symbol, apiKey)),
+            wrapProvider("yahoo", () => getQuote(symbol)),
+        ]);
+        const missing = [];
+        if (quoteResult.status === "unavailable")
+            missing.push(`stock quote (${quoteResult.reason})`);
+        if (quoteResult.status === "unavailable") {
+            return {
+                content: [
+                    {
+                        type: "text",
+                        text: `⚠ DCF valuation unavailable for ${symbol}. Missing: ${missing.join(", ")}. Both financials and current price are required.`,
+                    },
+                ],
+                details: null,
+            };
+        }
+        const quote = quoteResult.data;
+        if (quote.price <= 0) {
+            return {
+                content: [
+                    {
+                        type: "text",
+                        text: `⚠ DCF valuation unavailable for ${symbol}. Missing: current stock price. DCF output requires a real current quote price.`,
+                    },
+                ],
+                details: null,
+            };
+        }
+        let financialsSource = "Alpha Vantage";
+        let financials;
+        if (alphaVantageFinancialsResult.status === "ok" && !alphaVantageFinancialsResult.stale) {
+            financials = alphaVantageFinancialsResult.data;
+        }
+        else {
+            const alphaVantageReason = alphaVantageFinancialsResult.status === "ok"
+                ? `stale cached financial statements${alphaVantageFinancialsResult.timestamp
+                    ? ` from ${alphaVantageFinancialsResult.timestamp}`
+                    : ""}`
+                : alphaVantageFinancialsResult.reason;
+            const yahooFinancialsResult = await wrapProvider("yahoo", () => getYahooFinancials(symbol));
+            if (yahooFinancialsResult.status === "unavailable") {
                 return {
                     content: [
                         {
                             type: "text",
-                            text: `⚠ DCF valuation unavailable for ${symbol}. Missing: ${missing.join(", ")}. Both financials and current price are required.`,
+                            text: `⚠ DCF valuation unavailable for ${symbol}. Missing: financial statements (Alpha Vantage: ${alphaVantageReason}; Yahoo Finance: ${yahooFinancialsResult.reason}). Both financials and current price are required.`,
                         },
                     ],
                     details: null,
                 };
             }
-            const overview = overviewResult.status === "ok" ? overviewResult.data : null;
-            const financials = financialsResult.data;
-            const quote = quoteResult.data;
-            const latestFCF = financials[0]?.freeCashFlow ?? 0;
-            if (latestFCF <= 0) {
+            if (yahooFinancialsResult.stale) {
+                const cachedAt = yahooFinancialsResult.timestamp
+                    ? ` from ${yahooFinancialsResult.timestamp}`
+                    : "";
                 return {
                     content: [
                         {
                             type: "text",
-                            text: `${symbol} has negative or zero free cash flow ($${latestFCF.toLocaleString()}). DCF is not meaningful for companies without positive FCF.`,
+                            text: `⚠ DCF valuation unavailable for ${symbol}. Yahoo Finance returned stale cached financial statements${cachedAt} after Alpha Vantage could not provide fresh financial statements (${alphaVantageReason}). DCF output requires fresh financial statements and a current price.`,
                         },
                     ],
                     details: null,
                 };
             }
-            // Estimate growth from historical FCF if not provided
-            let growthRate = args.growth_rate ?? 0.1;
-            if (!args.growth_rate && financials.length >= 2) {
-                const olderFCF = financials[1]?.freeCashFlow;
-                if (olderFCF && olderFCF > 0) {
-                    growthRate = Math.max(0.02, Math.min(0.25, (latestFCF - olderFCF) / olderFCF));
-                }
+            financials = yahooFinancialsResult.data;
+            financialsSource = "Yahoo Finance";
+        }
+        const latestFCF = financials[0]?.freeCashFlow ?? 0;
+        if (latestFCF <= 0) {
+            return {
+                content: [
+                    {
+                        type: "text",
+                        text: `${symbol} has negative or zero free cash flow ($${latestFCF.toLocaleString()}). DCF is not meaningful for companies without positive FCF.`,
+                    },
+                ],
+                details: null,
+            };
+        }
+        // Estimate growth from historical FCF if not provided
+        let growthRate = args.growth_rate ?? 0.1;
+        if (!args.growth_rate && financials.length >= 2) {
+            const olderFCF = financials[1]?.freeCashFlow;
+            if (olderFCF && olderFCF > 0) {
+                growthRate = Math.max(0.02, Math.min(0.25, (latestFCF - olderFCF) / olderFCF));
+            }
+        }
+        const discountRate = args.discount_rate ?? 0.1;
+        const terminalGrowth = args.terminal_growth ?? 0.03;
+        if (discountRate <= terminalGrowth) {
+            return {
+                content: [
+                    {
+                        type: "text",
+                        text: `⚠ Invalid DCF assumptions for ${symbol}: terminal growth (${(terminalGrowth * 100).toFixed(1)}%) must be below the discount rate (${(discountRate * 100).toFixed(1)}%) for the Gordon Growth terminal value to be meaningful. Lower terminal_growth or raise discount_rate.`,
+                    },
+                ],
+                details: null,
+            };
+        }
+        const years = args.projection_years ?? 5;
+        // Prefer an actual reported share count, then derive from market cap
+        // only when needed. Never substitute a placeholder share count.
+        const statementSharesOutstanding = financials[0]?.sharesOutstanding;
+        let marketCap = quote.marketCap > 0 ? quote.marketCap : 0;
+        let sharesOutstanding = statementSharesOutstanding && statementSharesOutstanding > 0 ? statementSharesOutstanding : 0;
+        if (sharesOutstanding <= 0 && marketCap <= 0) {
+            const overviewResult = await optionalAlphaVantage(alphaVantageApiKey, (apiKey) => getOverview(symbol, apiKey));
+            if (overviewResult.status === "ok" && overviewResult.data.marketCap > 0) {
+                marketCap = overviewResult.data.marketCap;
             }
-            const discountRate = args.discount_rate ?? 0.1;
-            const terminalGrowth = args.terminal_growth ?? 0.03;
-            const years = args.projection_years ?? 5;
-            const marketCap = overview?.marketCap ?? 0;
-            const sharesOutstanding = quote.price > 0 && marketCap > 0 ? marketCap / quote.price : 1;
-            const netDebt = financials[0] ? computeNetDebt(financials[0]) : 0;
-            const result = computeDCF({
-                freeCashFlow: latestFCF,
-                growthRate,
-                discountRate,
-                terminalGrowth,
-                years,
-                netDebt: Math.max(0, netDebt),
-                sharesOutstanding,
-            });
-            const marginOfSafety = (result.intrinsicValue - quote.price) / result.intrinsicValue;
-            const upside = (result.intrinsicValue - quote.price) / quote.price;
-            const lines = [
-                `**${symbol} DCF Valuation**`,
-                ``,
-                `Current Price: $${quote.price.toFixed(2)}`,
-                `Intrinsic Value: $${result.intrinsicValue.toFixed(2)}`,
-                `Margin of Safety: ${(marginOfSafety * 100).toFixed(1)}%`,
-                `Upside/Downside: ${upside >= 0 ? "+" : ""}${(upside * 100).toFixed(1)}%`,
-                ``,
-                `**Assumptions**`,
-                `Free Cash Flow: $${(latestFCF / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B`,
-                `Growth Rate: ${(growthRate * 100).toFixed(1)}%`,
-                `Discount Rate (WACC): ${(discountRate * 100).toFixed(1)}%`,
-                `Terminal Growth: ${(terminalGrowth * 100).toFixed(1)}%`,
-                `Projection: ${years} years`,
-                ``,
-                `**Projected Cash Flows**`,
-                ...result.projectedCashFlows.map((cf) => `  Year ${cf.year}: FCF $${(cf.fcf / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B → PV $${(cf.presentValue / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B`),
-                `  Terminal Value: $${(result.terminalValue / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B`,
-                `  Enterprise Value: $${(result.enterpriseValue / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B`,
-                ``,
-                `**Sensitivity Table** (Intrinsic Value at different Growth/Discount rates)`,
-                ...formatSensitivityTable(result.sensitivityTable),
-            ];
+        }
+        if (sharesOutstanding <= 0 && quote.price > 0 && marketCap > 0) {
+            sharesOutstanding = marketCap / quote.price;
+        }
+        if (sharesOutstanding <= 0) {
             return {
-                content: [{ type: "text", text: lines.join("\n") }],
-                details: { ...result, currentPrice: quote.price, marginOfSafety, upside },
+                content: [
+                    {
+                        type: "text",
+                        text: `⚠ Cannot compute a per-share DCF for ${symbol}: shares outstanding are unavailable from financial statements and cannot be derived because ${quote.price <= 0 ? "the current quote price is unavailable" : "market capitalization is unavailable from the overview and quote providers"}. Per-share intrinsic value requires a real share count.`,
+                    },
+                ],
+                details: null,
             };
+        }
+        // Signed on purpose: net cash (negative net debt) adds to equity value.
+        // Omit the adjustment if debt/cash fields are missing; assets minus
+        // liabilities is book equity, not a net-cash proxy.
+        const computedNetDebt = financials[0] ? computeNetDebt(financials[0]) : null;
+        const netDebt = computedNetDebt ?? 0;
+        const result = computeDCF({
+            freeCashFlow: latestFCF,
+            growthRate,
+            discountRate,
+            terminalGrowth,
+            years,
+            netDebt,
+            sharesOutstanding,
         });
+        if (computedNetDebt == null) {
+            result.warnings.push("Net debt adjustment omitted because total debt and cash equivalents were unavailable.");
+        }
+        const marginOfSafety = (result.intrinsicValue - quote.price) / result.intrinsicValue;
+        const upside = (result.intrinsicValue - quote.price) / quote.price;
+        const lines = [
+            `**${symbol} DCF Valuation**`,
+            ``,
+            `Current Price: $${quote.price.toFixed(2)}`,
+            `Intrinsic Value: $${result.intrinsicValue.toFixed(2)}`,
+            `Margin of Safety: ${(marginOfSafety * 100).toFixed(1)}%`,
+            `Upside/Downside: ${upside >= 0 ? "+" : ""}${(upside * 100).toFixed(1)}%`,
+            ``,
+            `**Assumptions**`,
+            `Financial statements source: ${financialsSource}`,
+            `Free Cash Flow: $${(latestFCF / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B`,
+            `Growth Rate: ${(growthRate * 100).toFixed(1)}%`,
+            `Discount Rate (WACC): ${(discountRate * 100).toFixed(1)}%`,
+            `Terminal Growth: ${(terminalGrowth * 100).toFixed(1)}%`,
+            `Projection: ${years} years`,
+            ``,
+            `**Projected Cash Flows**`,
+            ...result.projectedCashFlows.map((cf) => `  Year ${cf.year}: FCF $${(cf.fcf / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B → PV $${(cf.presentValue / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B`),
+            `  Terminal Value: $${(result.terminalValue / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B`,
+            `  Enterprise Value: $${(result.enterpriseValue / 1e9).toFixed(2)}B`,
+            ``,
+            `**Sensitivity Table** (Intrinsic Value at different Growth/Discount rates)`,
+            ...formatSensitivityTable(result.sensitivityTable),
+            ...(result.warnings.length > 0
+                ? ["", "**Warnings**", ...result.warnings.map((warning) => `- ${warning}`)]
+                : []),
+        ];
+        return {
+            content: [{ type: "text", text: lines.join("\n") }],
+            details: { ...result, currentPrice: quote.price, marginOfSafety, upside },
+        };
     },
 };
 function formatSensitivityTable(table) {

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package/dist/tools/index.d.ts

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ export { dcfTool } from "./fundamentals/dcf.js";
 export { earningsTool } from "./fundamentals/earnings.js";
 export { financialsTool } from "./fundamentals/financials.js";
 export { secFilingsTool } from "./fundamentals/sec-filings.js";
+export { eventProbabilitiesTool } from "./macro/event-probabilities.js";
 export { fearGreedTool } from "./macro/fear-greed.js";
 export { fredDataTool } from "./macro/fred-data.js";
 export { cryptoHistoryTool } from "./market/crypto-history.js";
@@ -20,7 +21,6 @@ export { correlationTool } from "./portfolio/correlation.js";
 export { dailyReportTool } from "./portfolio/daily-report.js";
 export { holdingsOverlapTool } from "./portfolio/holdings-overlap.js";
 export { notificationsTool } from "./portfolio/notifications.js";
-export { predictionsTool } from "./portfolio/predictions.js";
 export { riskAnalysisTool } from "./portfolio/risk-analysis.js";
 export { portfolioTrackerTool } from "./portfolio/tracker.js";
 export { watchlistTool } from "./portfolio/watchlist.js";

package/dist/tools/index.js

@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ import { dcfTool } from "./fundamentals/dcf.js";
 import { earningsTool } from "./fundamentals/earnings.js";
 import { financialsTool } from "./fundamentals/financials.js";
 import { secFilingsTool } from "./fundamentals/sec-filings.js";
+import { eventProbabilitiesTool } from "./macro/event-probabilities.js";
 import { fearGreedTool } from "./macro/fear-greed.js";
 import { fredDataTool } from "./macro/fred-data.js";
 import { cryptoHistoryTool } from "./market/crypto-history.js";
@@ -18,7 +19,6 @@ import { correlationTool } from "./portfolio/correlation.js";
 import { dailyReportTool } from "./portfolio/daily-report.js";
 import { holdingsOverlapTool } from "./portfolio/holdings-overlap.js";
 import { notificationsTool } from "./portfolio/notifications.js";
-import { predictionsTool } from "./portfolio/predictions.js";
 import { riskAnalysisTool } from "./portfolio/risk-analysis.js";
 import { portfolioTrackerTool } from "./portfolio/tracker.js";
 import { watchlistTool } from "./portfolio/watchlist.js";
@@ -36,6 +36,7 @@ export { dcfTool } from "./fundamentals/dcf.js";
 export { earningsTool } from "./fundamentals/earnings.js";
 export { financialsTool } from "./fundamentals/financials.js";
 export { secFilingsTool } from "./fundamentals/sec-filings.js";
+export { eventProbabilitiesTool } from "./macro/event-probabilities.js";
 export { fearGreedTool } from "./macro/fear-greed.js";
 export { fredDataTool } from "./macro/fred-data.js";
 export { cryptoHistoryTool } from "./market/crypto-history.js";
@@ -50,7 +51,6 @@ export { correlationTool } from "./portfolio/correlation.js";
 export { dailyReportTool } from "./portfolio/daily-report.js";
 export { holdingsOverlapTool } from "./portfolio/holdings-overlap.js";
 export { notificationsTool } from "./portfolio/notifications.js";
-export { predictionsTool } from "./portfolio/predictions.js";
 export { riskAnalysisTool } from "./portfolio/risk-analysis.js";
 export { portfolioTrackerTool } from "./portfolio/tracker.js";
 export { watchlistTool } from "./portfolio/watchlist.js";
@@ -76,6 +76,7 @@ export function getAllTools(options = {}) {
         dcfTool,
         compsTool,
         secFilingsTool,
+        eventProbabilitiesTool,
         fredDataTool,
         fearGreedTool,
         createRedditSentimentTool({ askUserHandler: options.askUserHandler }),
@@ -87,7 +88,6 @@ export function getAllTools(options = {}) {
         watchlistTool,
         correlationTool,
         holdingsOverlapTool,
-        predictionsTool,
         alertsTool,
         dailyReportTool,
         notificationsTool,

package/dist/tools/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/tools/macro/event-probabilities.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+import type { AgentTool } from "@earendil-works/pi-agent-core";
+import type { PredictionMarketQuote } from "../../types/prediction-markets.js";
+declare const params: import("@sinclair/typebox").TObject<{
+    query: import("@sinclair/typebox").TString;
+    limit: import("@sinclair/typebox").TOptional<import("@sinclair/typebox").TInteger>;
+}>;
+export declare const eventProbabilitiesTool: AgentTool<typeof params, PredictionMarketQuote[]>;
+export {};