nodebench-mcp 2.22.0 → 2.26.0

package/dist/__tests__/forecastingDogfood.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,284 @@
+/**
+ * Forecasting OS — Integration Tests (Dogfood)
+ *
+ * Full lifecycle tests: create → evidence → update → resolve → track record → calibration.
+ * Uses MCP tools directly (SQLite-backed, no Convex dependency).
+ *
+ * Run: npx vitest run src/__tests__/forecastingDogfood.test.ts
+ */
+import { describe, it, expect, beforeAll } from "vitest";
+import { forecastingTools } from "../tools/forecastingTools.js";
+// ─── Helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+const toolMap = new Map(forecastingTools.map((t) => [t.name, t]));
+async function callTool(name, args) {
+    const tool = toolMap.get(name);
+    if (!tool)
+        throw new Error(`Tool ${name} not found`);
+    const result = await tool.handler(args);
+    const text = result.find((r) => r.type === "text")?.text;
+    if (!text)
+        throw new Error(`Tool ${name} returned no text`);
+    return JSON.parse(text);
+}
+// ─── Tool Structure ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+describe("Forecasting tools: structure", () => {
+    it("should have 9 tools", () => {
+        expect(forecastingTools.length).toBe(9);
+    });
+    it("every tool has name, description, inputSchema, handler", () => {
+        for (const tool of forecastingTools) {
+            expect(tool.name).toBeTruthy();
+            expect(tool.description).toBeTruthy();
+            expect(tool.inputSchema).toBeDefined();
+            expect(typeof tool.handler).toBe("function");
+        }
+    });
+    it("tool names match expected list", () => {
+        const names = forecastingTools.map((t) => t.name).sort();
+        expect(names).toEqual([
+            "add_forecast_evidence",
+            "compute_calibration",
+            "create_forecast",
+            "get_active_forecasts",
+            "get_forecast_chain",
+            "get_forecast_evidence",
+            "get_forecast_track_record",
+            "resolve_forecast",
+            "update_forecast_probability",
+        ]);
+    });
+});
+// ─── Full Lifecycle ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+describe("Forecasting lifecycle", () => {
+    let forecastId;
+    it("create_forecast — creates a binary forecast", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("create_forecast", {
+            question: "Will GPT-5 be released by 2026-12-31?",
+            forecastType: "binary",
+            resolutionDate: "2026-12-31",
+            resolutionCriteria: "OpenAI announces GPT-5 on official blog or press release",
+            probability: 0.5,
+            baseRate: 0.6,
+            refreshFrequency: "weekly",
+            topDrivers: ["Historical 18-month release cadence", "Sam Altman interview hints"],
+            topCounterarguments: ["No official roadmap published"],
+            tags: ["ai_tech"],
+        });
+        expect(result.forecastId).toBeTruthy();
+        expect(result.status).toBe("active");
+        expect(result.probability).toBe(0.5);
+        forecastId = result.forecastId;
+    });
+    it("add_forecast_evidence — adds supporting evidence", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("add_forecast_evidence", {
+            forecastId,
+            sourceUrl: "https://example.com/sam-altman-interview",
+            sourceTitle: "Sam Altman Interview on AI Progress",
+            sourceType: "news",
+            excerpt: "Altman hints at a major model release in the second half of 2026",
+            signal: "supporting",
+            impactOnProbability: 0.1,
+        });
+        expect(result.evidenceId).toBeTruthy();
+        expect(result.signal).toBe("supporting");
+    });
+    it("add_forecast_evidence — adds disconfirming evidence", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("add_forecast_evidence", {
+            forecastId,
+            sourceUrl: "https://example.com/compute-shortage",
+            sourceTitle: "GPU Shortage Report Q1 2026",
+            sourceType: "filing",
+            excerpt: "Major cloud providers report 40% compute capacity shortfall for large model training",
+            signal: "disconfirming",
+        });
+        expect(result.evidenceId).toBeTruthy();
+        expect(result.signal).toBe("disconfirming");
+    });
+    it("add_forecast_evidence — deduplicates by URL", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("add_forecast_evidence", {
+            forecastId,
+            sourceUrl: "https://example.com/sam-altman-interview",
+            sourceTitle: "Duplicate",
+            sourceType: "news",
+            excerpt: "Duplicate entry",
+            signal: "supporting",
+        });
+        expect(result.error).toContain("already exists");
+    });
+    it("get_forecast_evidence — returns evidence", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("get_forecast_evidence", {
+            forecastId,
+        });
+        expect(result.count).toBe(2);
+        expect(result.evidence.length).toBe(2);
+    });
+    it("get_forecast_evidence — filters by signal", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("get_forecast_evidence", {
+            forecastId,
+            signal: "supporting",
+        });
+        expect(result.count).toBe(1);
+    });
+    it("update_forecast_probability — updates with reasoning", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("update_forecast_probability", {
+            forecastId,
+            probability: 0.65,
+            topDrivers: [
+                "Sam Altman interview hint",
+                "Historical 18-month cadence",
+                "Competitor pressure from Google Gemini",
+            ],
+            topCounterarguments: [
+                "GPU shortage may delay training",
+                "No official roadmap",
+            ],
+            reasoning: "Soft leadership signal + historical pattern outweigh compute concerns",
+        });
+        expect(result.previousProbability).toBe(0.5);
+        expect(result.newProbability).toBe(0.65);
+        expect(result.diff).toBe("50% → 65% (+15pp)");
+    });
+    it("update_forecast_probability — validates range", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("update_forecast_probability", {
+            forecastId,
+            probability: 1.5,
+            reasoning: "Invalid",
+        });
+        expect(result.error).toContain("between 0 and 1");
+    });
+    it("get_forecast_chain — returns full audit trail", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("get_forecast_chain", {
+            forecastId,
+        });
+        expect(result.forecast).toBeTruthy();
+        expect(result.evidence.length).toBe(2);
+        expect(result.updateHistory.length).toBe(1);
+        expect(result.resolution).toBeNull();
+        expect(result.summary.evidenceCount).toBe(2);
+        expect(result.summary.updateCount).toBe(1);
+        expect(result.summary.isResolved).toBe(false);
+    });
+    it("get_active_forecasts — lists active forecasts", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("get_active_forecasts", {});
+        expect(result.count).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(1);
+        const forecasts = result.forecasts;
+        const found = forecasts.find((f) => f.id === forecastId);
+        expect(found).toBeTruthy();
+        expect(found?.status).toBe("active");
+    });
+    it("resolve_forecast — resolves with Brier score", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("resolve_forecast", {
+            forecastId,
+            outcome: "yes",
+            resolutionNotes: "GPT-5 announced on 2026-11-15 via OpenAI blog post",
+            resolutionSourceUrl: "https://openai.com/gpt-5-announcement",
+        });
+        expect(result.status).toBe("resolved");
+        expect(result.outcome).toBe("yes");
+        // Brier: (0.65 - 1)^2 = 0.1225
+        expect(result.brierScore).toBeCloseTo(0.1225, 3);
+        // Log: -log(0.65) ≈ 0.431
+        expect(result.logScore).toBeCloseTo(0.431, 2);
+    });
+    it("resolve_forecast — cannot resolve twice", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("resolve_forecast", {
+            forecastId,
+            outcome: "no",
+            resolutionNotes: "Already resolved",
+        });
+        expect(result.error).toContain("already resolved");
+    });
+    it("get_forecast_track_record — shows Brier aggregate", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("get_forecast_track_record", {});
+        expect(result.scoredCount).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(1);
+        // SQLite persists between test runs, so overallBrier is average across ALL
+        // resolved forecasts (not just this run). Use a reasonable bound instead.
+        expect(result.overallBrier).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+        expect(result.overallBrier).toBeLessThan(0.5);
+    });
+});
+// ─── Multi-Forecast Calibration ─────────────────────────────────────────────
+describe("Forecasting calibration", () => {
+    beforeAll(async () => {
+        // Create and resolve 5 forecasts with known outcomes for calibration
+        const scenarios = [
+            { probability: 0.9, outcome: "yes" }, // Brier: 0.01
+            { probability: 0.8, outcome: "yes" }, // Brier: 0.04
+            { probability: 0.3, outcome: "no" }, // Brier: 0.09
+            { probability: 0.1, outcome: "no" }, // Brier: 0.01
+            { probability: 0.6, outcome: "yes" }, // Brier: 0.16
+        ];
+        for (let i = 0; i < scenarios.length; i++) {
+            const create = await callTool("create_forecast", {
+                question: `Calibration test forecast ${i + 1}?`,
+                resolutionDate: "2026-01-01",
+                resolutionCriteria: `Test criteria ${i + 1}`,
+                probability: scenarios[i].probability,
+                tags: ["test_calibration"],
+            });
+            await callTool("resolve_forecast", {
+                forecastId: create.forecastId,
+                outcome: scenarios[i].outcome,
+                resolutionNotes: `Test resolution ${i + 1}`,
+            });
+        }
+    });
+    it("compute_calibration — returns 10 bins", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("compute_calibration", {});
+        expect(result.bins).toBeTruthy();
+        expect(result.bins.length).toBe(10);
+        expect(result.overallBrier).toBeTruthy();
+        expect(typeof result.overallBrier).toBe("number");
+        expect(result.forecastCount).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(5);
+    });
+    it("get_forecast_track_record — aggregate includes all resolved", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("get_forecast_track_record", {});
+        // At least 6 resolved (1 from lifecycle + 5 from calibration)
+        expect(result.scoredCount).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(6);
+        // Average Brier should be reasonable
+        expect(result.overallBrier).toBeLessThan(0.25);
+    });
+});
+// ─── Edge Cases ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+describe("Forecasting edge cases", () => {
+    it("create_forecast — rejects invalid probability", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("create_forecast", {
+            question: "Invalid prob test",
+            resolutionDate: "2026-12-31",
+            resolutionCriteria: "Test",
+            probability: -0.1,
+        });
+        expect(result.error).toContain("between 0 and 1");
+    });
+    it("resolve_forecast — ambiguous outcome excluded from scoring", async () => {
+        const create = await callTool("create_forecast", {
+            question: "Ambiguous resolution test?",
+            resolutionDate: "2026-12-31",
+            resolutionCriteria: "Test",
+            probability: 0.7,
+        });
+        const resolve = await callTool("resolve_forecast", {
+            forecastId: create.forecastId,
+            outcome: "ambiguous",
+            resolutionNotes: "Resolution criteria were unclear",
+        });
+        expect(resolve.brierScore).toBeNull();
+        expect(resolve.logScore).toBeNull();
+    });
+    it("get_forecast_chain — returns error for nonexistent forecast", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("get_forecast_chain", {
+            forecastId: "nonexistent_id",
+        });
+        expect(result.error).toContain("not found");
+    });
+    it("get_active_forecasts — filters by tags", async () => {
+        const result = await callTool("get_active_forecasts", {
+            tags: ["test_calibration"],
+        });
+        // All calibration forecasts are resolved, so none should be active
+        const forecasts = result.forecasts;
+        const calibration = forecasts.filter((f) => f.tags.includes("test_calibration"));
+        expect(calibration.length).toBe(0);
+    });
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=forecastingDogfood.test.js.map

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@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/__tests__/forecastingScoring.test.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+/**
+ * Forecasting Scoring Engine — Unit Tests
+ *
+ * Tests for brierScore, logScore, calibrationBins, isotonicCalibrate,
+ * averageBrier, averageLogScore, formatForecastDiff.
+ *
+ * All functions are pure — no Convex, no SQLite, no network.
+ */
+export {};

package/dist/__tests__/forecastingScoring.test.js

@@ -0,0 +1,202 @@
+/**
+ * Forecasting Scoring Engine — Unit Tests
+ *
+ * Tests for brierScore, logScore, calibrationBins, isotonicCalibrate,
+ * averageBrier, averageLogScore, formatForecastDiff.
+ *
+ * All functions are pure — no Convex, no SQLite, no network.
+ */
+import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
+import { brierScore, logScore, calibrationBins, averageBrier, averageLogScore, isotonicCalibrate, formatForecastDiff, } from "../../../../convex/domains/forecasting/scoringEngine";
+// ─── Brier Score ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+describe("brierScore", () => {
+    it("perfect prediction — yes at 100%", () => {
+        expect(brierScore(1.0, "yes")).toBe(0);
+    });
+    it("perfect prediction — no at 0%", () => {
+        expect(brierScore(0.0, "no")).toBe(0);
+    });
+    it("worst prediction — yes at 0%", () => {
+        expect(brierScore(0.0, "yes")).toBe(1);
+    });
+    it("worst prediction — no at 100%", () => {
+        expect(brierScore(1.0, "no")).toBe(1);
+    });
+    it("coin flip — 50% on yes", () => {
+        expect(brierScore(0.5, "yes")).toBe(0.25);
+    });
+    it("coin flip — 50% on no", () => {
+        expect(brierScore(0.5, "no")).toBe(0.25);
+    });
+    it("65% on yes outcome", () => {
+        expect(brierScore(0.65, "yes")).toBeCloseTo(0.1225, 4);
+    });
+    it("80% on no outcome", () => {
+        expect(brierScore(0.8, "no")).toBeCloseTo(0.64, 4);
+    });
+});
+// ─── Log Score ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+describe("logScore", () => {
+    it("perfect prediction — yes at ~100%", () => {
+        expect(logScore(0.999, "yes")).toBeCloseTo(0.001, 2);
+    });
+    it("perfect prediction — no at ~0%", () => {
+        expect(logScore(0.001, "no")).toBeCloseTo(0.001, 2);
+    });
+    it("worst prediction — yes at ~0%", () => {
+        // -log(0.001) ≈ 6.9
+        expect(logScore(0.001, "yes")).toBeCloseTo(6.908, 1);
+    });
+    it("coin flip — 50% on yes", () => {
+        // -log(0.5) ≈ 0.693
+        expect(logScore(0.5, "yes")).toBeCloseTo(0.693, 2);
+    });
+    it("clamps extreme values to avoid -Infinity", () => {
+        const score = logScore(0.0, "yes");
+        expect(Number.isFinite(score)).toBe(true);
+        expect(score).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    });
+    it("clamps 1.0 for no outcome", () => {
+        const score = logScore(1.0, "no");
+        expect(Number.isFinite(score)).toBe(true);
+        expect(score).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    });
+});
+// ─── Calibration Bins ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+describe("calibrationBins", () => {
+    it("returns 10 bins", () => {
+        const bins = calibrationBins([]);
+        expect(bins).toHaveLength(10);
+    });
+    it("first bin is 0-10%", () => {
+        const bins = calibrationBins([]);
+        expect(bins[0].binLabel).toBe("0-10%");
+        expect(bins[0].predictedProb).toBe(0.05);
+    });
+    it("last bin is 90-100%", () => {
+        const bins = calibrationBins([]);
+        expect(bins[9].binLabel).toBe("90-100%");
+        expect(bins[9].predictedProb).toBe(0.95);
+    });
+    it("empty bins have count 0 and observedFreq 0", () => {
+        const bins = calibrationBins([]);
+        for (const bin of bins) {
+            expect(bin.count).toBe(0);
+            expect(bin.observedFreq).toBe(0);
+        }
+    });
+    it("correctly bins a single forecast", () => {
+        const bins = calibrationBins([{ probability: 0.75, outcome: "yes" }]);
+        const bin70 = bins[7]; // 70-80%
+        expect(bin70.count).toBe(1);
+        expect(bin70.observedFreq).toBe(1); // 1/1 = yes
+    });
+    it("correctly computes observed frequency", () => {
+        const forecasts = [
+            { probability: 0.55, outcome: "yes" },
+            { probability: 0.52, outcome: "no" },
+            { probability: 0.58, outcome: "yes" },
+            { probability: 0.51, outcome: "no" },
+        ];
+        const bins = calibrationBins(forecasts);
+        const bin50 = bins[5]; // 50-60%
+        expect(bin50.count).toBe(4);
+        expect(bin50.observedFreq).toBe(0.5); // 2/4
+    });
+    it("boundary value 1.0 goes in 90-100% bin", () => {
+        const bins = calibrationBins([{ probability: 1.0, outcome: "yes" }]);
+        expect(bins[9].count).toBe(1);
+    });
+    it("boundary value 0.0 goes in 0-10% bin", () => {
+        const bins = calibrationBins([{ probability: 0.0, outcome: "no" }]);
+        expect(bins[0].count).toBe(1);
+    });
+});
+// ─── Average Brier ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+describe("averageBrier", () => {
+    it("returns 0 for empty array", () => {
+        expect(averageBrier([])).toBe(0);
+    });
+    it("returns single score for single forecast", () => {
+        expect(averageBrier([{ probability: 0.7, outcome: "yes" }])).toBeCloseTo(0.09, 2);
+    });
+    it("averages multiple forecasts", () => {
+        const forecasts = [
+            { probability: 1.0, outcome: "yes" }, // 0
+            { probability: 0.0, outcome: "yes" }, // 1
+        ];
+        expect(averageBrier(forecasts)).toBe(0.5);
+    });
+});
+// ─── Average Log Score ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+describe("averageLogScore", () => {
+    it("returns 0 for empty array", () => {
+        expect(averageLogScore([])).toBe(0);
+    });
+    it("lower for better-calibrated forecasts", () => {
+        const good = [
+            { probability: 0.9, outcome: "yes" },
+            { probability: 0.1, outcome: "no" },
+        ];
+        const bad = [
+            { probability: 0.1, outcome: "yes" },
+            { probability: 0.9, outcome: "no" },
+        ];
+        expect(averageLogScore(good)).toBeLessThan(averageLogScore(bad));
+    });
+});
+// ─── Isotonic Calibration ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
+describe("isotonicCalibrate", () => {
+    it("returns raw probability with fewer than 3 non-empty bins", () => {
+        const sparse = calibrationBins([
+            { probability: 0.15, outcome: "yes" },
+            { probability: 0.85, outcome: "no" },
+        ]);
+        expect(isotonicCalibrate(0.5, sparse)).toBe(0.5);
+    });
+    it("returns a value in [0, 1]", () => {
+        // Create bins with enough data
+        const forecasts = Array.from({ length: 50 }, (_, i) => ({
+            probability: (i + 0.5) / 50,
+            outcome: (Math.random() > 0.5 ? "yes" : "no"),
+        }));
+        const bins = calibrationBins(forecasts);
+        const calibrated = isotonicCalibrate(0.7, bins);
+        expect(calibrated).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+        expect(calibrated).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1);
+    });
+    it("produces monotonically non-decreasing output for ordered inputs", () => {
+        // Create well-populated bins
+        const forecasts = [];
+        for (let i = 0; i < 10; i++) {
+            for (let j = 0; j < 10; j++) {
+                const p = (i * 10 + j + 0.5) / 100;
+                // Roughly calibrated: higher p → more "yes"
+                const outcome = Math.random() < p ? "yes" : "no";
+                forecasts.push({ probability: p, outcome: outcome });
+            }
+        }
+        const bins = calibrationBins(forecasts);
+        const inputs = [0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9];
+        const outputs = inputs.map((p) => isotonicCalibrate(p, bins));
+        for (let i = 0; i < outputs.length - 1; i++) {
+            expect(outputs[i]).toBeLessThanOrEqual(outputs[i + 1] + 0.05); // allow for random data noise in PAV
+        }
+    });
+});
+// ─── Format Forecast Diff ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
+describe("formatForecastDiff", () => {
+    it("formats increase correctly", () => {
+        const diff = formatForecastDiff(0.35, 0.55, "New evidence from Fed minutes");
+        expect(diff).toBe("35% → 55% (+20pp): New evidence from Fed minutes");
+    });
+    it("formats decrease correctly", () => {
+        const diff = formatForecastDiff(0.8, 0.6, "CEO resignation");
+        expect(diff).toBe("80% → 60% (-20pp): CEO resignation");
+    });
+    it("formats no change", () => {
+        const diff = formatForecastDiff(0.5, 0.5, "No new evidence");
+        expect(diff).toBe("50% → 50% (+0pp): No new evidence");
+    });
+});
+//# sourceMappingURL=forecastingScoring.test.js.map

package/dist/__tests__/forecastingScoring.test.js.map

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package/dist/__tests__/localDashboard.test.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+export {};