monomind 1.18.15 → 2.0.0

package/packages/@monomind/guidance/dist/uncertainty.d.ts

@@ -1,372 +0,0 @@
-/**
- * Uncertainty as a First-Class State
- *
- * Probabilistic belief tracking with confidence intervals, evidence counts,
- * and opposing evidence pointers. Uncertainty is preserved, not eliminated.
- *
- * Every piece of knowledge in the system carries explicit uncertainty metadata.
- * Claims can be partial, unresolved, or contested. Confidence propagates
- * through inference chains and decays over time.
- *
- * UncertaintyLedger:
- * - Asserts beliefs with explicit confidence intervals and evidence
- * - Recomputes confidence from weighted supporting/opposing evidence
- * - Propagates uncertainty through inference chains (child bounded by parent)
- * - Applies time-based decay to all beliefs
- * - Queries by namespace, status, confidence, and tags
- * - Traces full inference chains back to root beliefs
- *
- * UncertaintyAggregator:
- * - Computes aggregate confidence across multiple beliefs (geometric mean)
- * - Worst-case and best-case confidence queries
- * - Contested and confirmed status checks across belief sets
- *
- * @module @monomind/guidance/uncertainty
- */
-/**
- * Lifecycle status of a belief.
- *
- * - confirmed: evidence strongly supports; manually or automatically resolved
- * - probable: confidence is high but not confirmed
- * - uncertain: insufficient evidence to decide
- * - contested: significant opposing evidence exists
- * - refuted: evidence strongly opposes the claim
- * - unknown: no evidence has been provided yet
- */
-export type BeliefStatus = 'confirmed' | 'probable' | 'uncertain' | 'contested' | 'refuted' | 'unknown';
-/**
- * A bounded confidence estimate with lower, point, and upper values.
- * All values are in the range [0.0, 1.0].
- */
-export interface ConfidenceInterval {
-    /** Lower bound of the confidence interval (0.0 - 1.0) */
-    lower: number;
-    /** Best point estimate of confidence (0.0 - 1.0) */
-    point: number;
-    /** Upper bound of the confidence interval (0.0 - 1.0) */
-    upper: number;
-}
-/**
- * A pointer to a piece of evidence that supports or opposes a belief.
- */
-export interface EvidencePointer {
-    /** Unique identifier of the evidence source */
-    sourceId: string;
-    /** Classification of the evidence origin */
-    sourceType: 'memory-read' | 'tool-output' | 'truth-anchor' | 'inference' | 'human-input' | 'agent-report';
-    /** true = supporting evidence, false = opposing evidence */
-    supports: boolean;
-    /** Strength of this evidence (0.0 - 1.0) */
-    weight: number;
-    /** Unix timestamp (ms) when this evidence was recorded */
-    timestamp: number;
-}
-/**
- * A tracked belief with full uncertainty metadata.
- */
-export interface Belief {
-    /** Unique belief identifier (UUID) */
-    id: string;
-    /** The claim this belief represents */
-    claim: string;
-    /** Namespace for grouping related beliefs */
-    namespace: string;
-    /** Bounded confidence estimate */
-    confidence: ConfidenceInterval;
-    /** Current lifecycle status */
-    status: BeliefStatus;
-    /** Evidence that supports the claim */
-    evidence: EvidencePointer[];
-    /** Evidence that opposes the claim */
-    opposingEvidence: EvidencePointer[];
-    /** Parent belief IDs this belief was inferred from */
-    inferredFrom: string[];
-    /** Unix timestamp (ms) when this belief was first asserted */
-    firstAsserted: number;
-    /** Unix timestamp (ms) of the most recent update */
-    lastUpdated: number;
-    /** Per-belief decay rate (confidence points lost per hour) */
-    decayRate: number;
-    /** Searchable tags */
-    tags: string[];
-}
-/**
- * Configuration for the UncertaintyLedger.
- */
-export interface UncertaintyConfig {
-    /** Default point estimate for new beliefs (0.0 - 1.0) */
-    defaultConfidence: number;
-    /** Default confidence decay rate per hour */
-    decayRatePerHour: number;
-    /** Opposing/total evidence ratio threshold to mark a belief contested */
-    contestedThreshold: number;
-    /** Opposing/total evidence ratio threshold to mark a belief refuted */
-    refutedThreshold: number;
-    /** Minimum confidence.point required for an action; below this requires confirmation */
-    minConfidenceForAction: number;
-}
-/**
- * Query options for filtering beliefs.
- */
-export interface BeliefQueryOptions {
-    /** Filter by namespace */
-    namespace?: string;
-    /** Filter by status */
-    status?: BeliefStatus;
-    /** Only include beliefs with confidence.point >= this value */
-    minConfidence?: number;
-    /** Only include beliefs that have all specified tags */
-    tags?: string[];
-}
-/**
- * A node in a confidence inference chain.
- */
-export interface ConfidenceChainNode {
-    /** The belief at this node */
-    belief: Belief;
-    /** Depth in the inference chain (0 = the queried belief) */
-    depth: number;
-}
-/**
- * Serializable ledger representation for export/import.
- */
-export interface SerializedUncertaintyLedger {
-    beliefs: Belief[];
-    createdAt: string;
-    version: number;
-}
-/**
- * A ledger that tracks beliefs with explicit uncertainty metadata.
- *
- * Every belief carries a confidence interval, supporting and opposing evidence,
- * inference chain links, and time-based decay. The ledger recomputes confidence
- * from evidence weights and propagates uncertainty through inference chains.
- */
-export declare class UncertaintyLedger {
-    private readonly config;
-    private readonly beliefs;
-    constructor(config?: Partial<UncertaintyConfig>);
-    /**
-     * Assert a new belief in the ledger.
-     *
-     * Creates a belief with the given claim, namespace, and initial evidence.
-     * If no confidence is provided, the default confidence is used to build
-     * the initial confidence interval.
-     *
-     * @param claim - The claim this belief represents
-     * @param namespace - Namespace for grouping
-     * @param evidence - Initial evidence pointers
-     * @param confidence - Optional explicit confidence interval
-     * @returns The newly created Belief
-     */
-    assert(claim: string, namespace: string, evidence: EvidencePointer[], confidence?: Partial<ConfidenceInterval>): Belief;
-    /**
-     * Add a piece of evidence to an existing belief.
-     *
-     * Appends the evidence to the appropriate list (supporting or opposing),
-     * then recomputes the belief's confidence and status.
-     *
-     * @param beliefId - The belief to update
-     * @param evidence - The new evidence pointer
-     * @returns The updated belief, or undefined if not found
-     */
-    addEvidence(beliefId: string, evidence: EvidencePointer): Belief | undefined;
-    /**
-     * Retrieve a belief by its ID.
-     *
-     * @param id - The belief ID
-     * @returns The belief, or undefined if not found
-     */
-    getBelief(id: string): Belief | undefined;
-    /**
-     * Query beliefs with optional filters.
-     *
-     * All specified filters are ANDed together. Returns beliefs ordered
-     * by lastUpdated descending.
-     *
-     * @param opts - Filter criteria
-     * @returns Matching beliefs
-     */
-    query(opts?: BeliefQueryOptions): Belief[];
-    /**
-     * Get all beliefs with status 'contested'.
-     *
-     * @returns Array of contested beliefs
-     */
-    getContested(): Belief[];
-    /**
-     * Get all beliefs with status 'uncertain' or 'contested'.
-     *
-     * @returns Array of unresolved beliefs
-     */
-    getUnresolved(): Belief[];
-    /**
-     * Recompute the confidence interval for a belief from all evidence.
-     *
-     * The point estimate is a weighted average: total supporting weight minus
-     * total opposing weight, normalized to [0, 1]. The interval bounds are
-     * derived from the spread of evidence weights.
-     *
-     * @param beliefId - The belief to recompute
-     * @returns The updated confidence interval, or undefined if not found
-     */
-    computeConfidence(beliefId: string): ConfidenceInterval | undefined;
-    /**
-     * Propagate uncertainty from a parent belief to a child belief.
-     *
-     * The child's confidence is bounded by the parent's confidence multiplied
-     * by the inference weight. This ensures that downstream beliefs cannot
-     * be more confident than their sources warrant.
-     *
-     * @param parentId - The parent belief ID
-     * @param childId - The child belief ID
-     * @param inferenceWeight - How strongly the parent supports the child (0.0 - 1.0)
-     * @returns The updated child belief, or undefined if either belief is not found
-     */
-    propagateUncertainty(parentId: string, childId: string, inferenceWeight: number): Belief | undefined;
-    /**
-     * Apply time-based decay to all beliefs.
-     *
-     * Each belief's confidence.point is reduced by its decayRate for every
-     * hour elapsed since lastUpdated. The lower and upper bounds shrink
-     * proportionally. Status is updated if confidence drops below thresholds.
-     *
-     * @param currentTime - The reference time for computing elapsed decay (defaults to now)
-     */
-    decayAll(currentTime?: number): void;
-    /**
-     * Manually resolve a belief to a definitive status.
-     *
-     * This overrides the computed status. Typically used for 'confirmed' or
-     * 'refuted' after human review or authoritative evidence.
-     *
-     * @param beliefId - The belief to resolve
-     * @param status - The new status to assign
-     * @param reason - Human-readable reason for the resolution
-     * @returns The updated belief, or undefined if not found
-     */
-    resolve(beliefId: string, status: BeliefStatus, reason: string): Belief | undefined;
-    /**
-     * Check whether a belief's confidence meets the minimum threshold for action.
-     *
-     * @param beliefId - The belief to check
-     * @returns true if confidence.point >= minConfidenceForAction, false otherwise
-     */
-    isActionable(beliefId: string): boolean;
-    /**
-     * Trace the full inference chain from a belief back to its root beliefs.
-     *
-     * Returns an array of { belief, depth } nodes, starting with the queried
-     * belief at depth 0, then its parents at depth 1, their parents at depth 2,
-     * and so on. Handles cycles by tracking visited IDs.
-     *
-     * @param beliefId - The belief whose chain to trace
-     * @returns Array of chain nodes ordered by depth, or empty if not found
-     */
-    getConfidenceChain(beliefId: string): ConfidenceChainNode[];
-    /**
-     * Export all beliefs for persistence.
-     *
-     * @returns Serialized ledger data suitable for JSON.stringify
-     */
-    exportBeliefs(): SerializedUncertaintyLedger;
-    /**
-     * Import previously exported beliefs, replacing all current contents.
-     *
-     * @param data - Serialized ledger data
-     * @throws If the version is unsupported
-     */
-    importBeliefs(data: SerializedUncertaintyLedger): void;
-    /**
-     * Get the number of tracked beliefs.
-     */
-    get size(): number;
-    /**
-     * Get the current configuration.
-     */
-    getConfig(): UncertaintyConfig;
-    /**
-     * Remove all beliefs from the ledger.
-     */
-    clear(): void;
-    /**
-     * Recompute the confidence interval for a belief from its evidence arrays.
-     *
-     * Point estimate is derived from the balance of supporting vs opposing
-     * evidence weights. Bounds reflect the spread of evidence.
-     */
-    private recomputeConfidence;
-    /**
-     * Derive the belief status from its current confidence and evidence ratios.
-     */
-    private deriveStatus;
-}
-/**
- * Computes aggregate confidence metrics across multiple beliefs.
- *
- * Provides geometric mean, worst-case, best-case, and status checks
- * over sets of beliefs referenced by ID.
- */
-export declare class UncertaintyAggregator {
-    private readonly ledger;
-    constructor(ledger: UncertaintyLedger);
-    /**
-     * Compute the aggregate confidence across multiple beliefs using
-     * the geometric mean of their point estimates.
-     *
-     * The geometric mean penalizes any single low-confidence belief more
-     * heavily than an arithmetic mean, making it appropriate for combining
-     * independent confidence estimates.
-     *
-     * @param beliefIds - IDs of beliefs to aggregate
-     * @returns Geometric mean of confidence points, or 0 if no valid beliefs
-     */
-    aggregate(beliefIds: string[]): number;
-    /**
-     * Return the lowest confidence point among the specified beliefs.
-     *
-     * @param beliefIds - IDs of beliefs to check
-     * @returns The minimum confidence point, or 0 if no valid beliefs
-     */
-    worstCase(beliefIds: string[]): number;
-    /**
-     * Return the highest confidence point among the specified beliefs.
-     *
-     * @param beliefIds - IDs of beliefs to check
-     * @returns The maximum confidence point, or 0 if no valid beliefs
-     */
-    bestCase(beliefIds: string[]): number;
-    /**
-     * Check if any of the specified beliefs is contested.
-     *
-     * @param beliefIds - IDs of beliefs to check
-     * @returns true if at least one belief has status 'contested'
-     */
-    anyContested(beliefIds: string[]): boolean;
-    /**
-     * Check if all of the specified beliefs are confirmed.
-     *
-     * @param beliefIds - IDs of beliefs to check
-     * @returns true only if every belief exists and has status 'confirmed'
-     */
-    allConfirmed(beliefIds: string[]): boolean;
-    /**
-     * Collect the confidence point estimates for all valid belief IDs.
-     */
-    private collectConfidences;
-}
-/**
- * Create an UncertaintyLedger with optional configuration.
- *
- * @param config - Partial configuration; unspecified values use defaults
- * @returns A fresh UncertaintyLedger
- */
-export declare function createUncertaintyLedger(config?: Partial<UncertaintyConfig>): UncertaintyLedger;
-/**
- * Create an UncertaintyAggregator backed by the given ledger.
- *
- * @param ledger - The UncertaintyLedger to aggregate over
- * @returns A fresh UncertaintyAggregator
- */
-export declare function createUncertaintyAggregator(ledger: UncertaintyLedger): UncertaintyAggregator;
-//# sourceMappingURL=uncertainty.d.ts.map