mergen-server 1.4.0

package/dist/routes/impact-report.js

@@ -0,0 +1,645 @@
+import { randomUUID } from "crypto";
+import { Router } from "express";
+import { getShadowLog } from "../intelligence/shadow-log.js";
+import { getStores } from "../storage/store-registry.js";
+import { postmortemStore } from "../intelligence/postmortem-store.js";
+import { plattScale } from "../intelligence/platt-scaling.js";
+import logger from "../sensor/logger.js";
+const DEFAULT_REVENUE_PER_MINUTE_USD = 100;
+const DEFAULT_DOWNTIME_COST_PER_HOUR_USD = 1e4;
+const ESTIMATED_AUTONOMOUS_MTTR_MS = 2 * 60 * 1e3;
+function createImpactReportRouter() {
+  const router = Router();
+  router.get("/impact-report", async (req, res) => {
+    const windowDays = Math.min(90, Math.max(1, Number(req.query.days ?? 30)));
+    const format = req.query.format;
+    const data = await computeImpactData(windowDays, req.tenantId);
+    logger.info({ windowDays, format }, "impact-report: generated");
+    if (format === "html") {
+      res.setHeader("Content-Type", "text/html; charset=utf-8");
+      res.setHeader("Content-Security-Policy", "default-src 'self'; style-src 'unsafe-inline'");
+      res.send(buildHtml(data));
+      return;
+    }
+    if (format === "slide") {
+      res.json({ ok: true, slide: buildSlide(data) });
+      return;
+    }
+    res.json({ ok: true, report: data });
+  });
+  return router;
+}
+function fmtMs(ms) {
+  if (ms < 6e4) return `${Math.round(ms / 1e3)}s`;
+  const min = Math.floor(ms / 6e4);
+  const sec = Math.round(ms % 6e4 / 1e3);
+  return sec > 0 ? `${min}m ${sec}s` : `${min}m`;
+}
+async function computeImpactData(windowDays, tenantId) {
+  const now = Date.now();
+  const cutoff = now - windowDays * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1e3;
+  const entries = [...getShadowLog()].filter((e) => e.recordedAt >= cutoff);
+  const wouldResolve = entries.filter((e) => e.wouldHaveExecuted);
+  const missed = entries.filter((e) => !e.wouldHaveExecuted);
+  const incidentMap = new Map(
+    (await getStores().incidents.list(void 0, 1e4, tenantId)).map((i) => [i.pid, i])
+  );
+  const corpus = await getStores().overrides.getOverrideSummary(tenantId);
+  const overrideIds = [...new Set(entries.map((e) => e.overrideId).filter((id) => !!id))];
+  const overrideDetails = new Map(
+    await Promise.all(overrideIds.map(async (id) => [id, await getStores().overrides.getOverrideById(id, tenantId)]))
+  );
+  const autonomousMttrSamples = [];
+  const manualMttrSamples = [];
+  const contextAssistedMttrSamples = [];
+  const unassistedMttrSamples = [];
+  for (const entry of entries) {
+    if (!entry.pid) continue;
+    const inc = incidentMap.get(entry.pid);
+    if (!inc?.resolvedAt || !inc.createdAt) continue;
+    const mttr = inc.resolvedAt - inc.createdAt;
+    if (inc.resolvedAutonomously) {
+      autonomousMttrSamples.push(mttr);
+    } else {
+      manualMttrSamples.push(mttr);
+      if (inc.contextBriefViewedAt != null) {
+        contextAssistedMttrSamples.push(mttr);
+      } else {
+        unassistedMttrSamples.push(mttr);
+      }
+    }
+  }
+  const allMttrSamples = [...autonomousMttrSamples, ...manualMttrSamples];
+  const avg = (arr) => arr.length > 0 ? arr.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / arr.length : null;
+  const avgAutonomousMttrMs = avg(autonomousMttrSamples);
+  const avgManualMttrMs = avg(manualMttrSamples);
+  const avgActualMttrMs = avg(allMttrSamples);
+  const avgContextAssistedMttrMs = avg(contextAssistedMttrSamples);
+  const avgUnassistedMttrMs = avg(unassistedMttrSamples);
+  const autonomousBenchmark = avgAutonomousMttrMs ?? ESTIMATED_AUTONOMOUS_MTTR_MS;
+  const manualBenchmark = avgManualMttrMs ?? avgActualMttrMs;
+  const mttrReductionPct = manualBenchmark !== null && manualBenchmark > 0 ? Math.round((1 - autonomousBenchmark / manualBenchmark) * 100) : null;
+  const highConfidence = entries.filter((e) => e.remediationConfidence >= 0.85).length;
+  const mediumConfidence = entries.filter(
+    (e) => e.remediationConfidence >= 0.7 && e.remediationConfidence < 0.85
+  ).length;
+  const lowOrNoCommand = entries.filter(
+    (e) => e.remediationConfidence < 0.7 || e.skipReason === "no-command"
+  ).length;
+  const tagMap = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  for (const entry of entries) {
+    const t = tagMap.get(entry.incidentTag) ?? { total: 0, wouldResolve: 0, mttrSamples: [] };
+    t.total += 1;
+    if (entry.wouldHaveExecuted) t.wouldResolve += 1;
+    if (entry.pid) {
+      const inc = incidentMap.get(entry.pid);
+      if (inc?.resolvedAt && inc.createdAt) t.mttrSamples.push(inc.resolvedAt - inc.createdAt);
+    }
+    tagMap.set(entry.incidentTag, t);
+  }
+  const byTag = [...tagMap.entries()].map(([tag, t]) => ({
+    tag,
+    total: t.total,
+    wouldResolve: t.wouldResolve,
+    resolutionRate: t.total > 0 ? t.wouldResolve / t.total : 0,
+    avgActualMttrMs: t.mttrSamples.length > 0 ? t.mttrSamples.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / t.mttrSamples.length : null
+  })).sort((a, b) => b.total - a.total);
+  const corpusBlockCount = entries.filter((e) => e.skipReason === "override-corpus").length;
+  const reviewed = entries.filter((e) => e.humanVerdict !== void 0);
+  const approved = reviewed.filter((e) => e.humanVerdict === "would-approve").length;
+  const humanApprovalRate = reviewed.length >= 3 ? approved / reviewed.length : null;
+  const rawHighConfidenceEntries = entries.filter((e) => e.remediationConfidence >= 0.85 && e.humanVerdict !== void 0);
+  const rawHighConfidenceApproved = rawHighConfidenceEntries.filter((e) => e.humanVerdict === "would-approve").length;
+  const rawHighConfidenceApprovedRate = rawHighConfidenceEntries.length > 0 ? rawHighConfidenceApproved / rawHighConfidenceEntries.length : null;
+  const plattHighConfidenceEntries = entries.filter((e) => {
+    const cal = plattScale(e.remediationConfidence, e.incidentTag).calibrated;
+    return cal >= 0.85 && e.humanVerdict !== void 0;
+  });
+  const plattHighConfidenceApproved = plattHighConfidenceEntries.filter((e) => e.humanVerdict === "would-approve").length;
+  const plattHighConfidenceApprovedRate = plattHighConfidenceEntries.length > 0 ? plattHighConfidenceApproved / plattHighConfidenceEntries.length : null;
+  const overrodeCount = reviewed.filter((e) => e.humanVerdict === "would-override").length;
+  const falsePositiveRate = reviewed.length > 0 ? overrodeCount / reviewed.length : null;
+  const falsePositiveCount = overrodeCount;
+  const executionBlocks = entries.filter((e) => e.remediationConfidence >= 0.85 && e.skipReason !== "executed" && e.skipReason !== "executed-failure").map((e) => {
+    let blockReason = "Safety block";
+    if (e.skipReason === "override-corpus") blockReason = "override corpus block";
+    else if (e.skipReason === "similar-incident-history") blockReason = "historical decision memory hold";
+    else if (e.skipReason === "planning-gate") blockReason = "planning gate block";
+    else if (e.skipReason === "level-restricted") blockReason = "restricted by autopilot level";
+    else if (e.skipReason === "denied") blockReason = "denied via Slack";
+    else if (e.skipReason === "blocked-by-safety-filter") blockReason = "blocked by safety filter";
+    else if (e.skipReason === "track-record-pause") blockReason = "paused due to wrong verdicts";
+    return {
+      pid: e.pid,
+      date: new Date(e.firedAt ?? e.recordedAt).toISOString().slice(0, 16).replace("T", " ") + " UTC",
+      service: e.service,
+      command: e.command ?? "unknown",
+      confidence: e.remediationConfidence,
+      blockedBy: e.skipReason,
+      reason: blockReason
+    };
+  });
+  const revenuePerMinute = parseFloat(process.env.MERGEN_REVENUE_PER_MINUTE_USD ?? "") || DEFAULT_REVENUE_PER_MINUTE_USD;
+  const autonomousBenchmarkForRevenue = avgAutonomousMttrMs ?? ESTIMATED_AUTONOMOUS_MTTR_MS;
+  const manualBenchmarkForRevenue = avgManualMttrMs ?? avgActualMttrMs;
+  const mttrSavedMs = manualBenchmarkForRevenue != null ? Math.max(0, manualBenchmarkForRevenue - autonomousBenchmarkForRevenue) : null;
+  const estimatedRevenuePreservedUsd = mttrSavedMs != null && wouldResolve.length > 0 ? Math.round(mttrSavedMs / 6e4 * revenuePerMinute * wouldResolve.length) : null;
+  const downtimeCostPerHour = parseFloat(process.env.MERGEN_DOWNTIME_COST_PER_HOUR ?? "") || DEFAULT_DOWNTIME_COST_PER_HOUR_USD;
+  const estimatedDowntimeSavedUsd = mttrSavedMs != null && wouldResolve.length > 0 ? Math.round(mttrSavedMs / 36e5 * downtimeCostPerHour * wouldResolve.length) : null;
+  const corpusPostmortems = postmortemStore.count();
+  const [blunderStats, chainResult] = await Promise.all([
+    getStores().blunders.getStats(tenantId),
+    getStores().blunders.verifyChain(tenantId)
+  ]);
+  const agentBlunderSummary = {
+    totalPrevented: blunderStats.total,
+    byType: blunderStats.byType,
+    chainVerified: chainResult.valid
+  };
+  const savedPerIncidentMs = Math.max(
+    0,
+    (manualBenchmarkForRevenue ?? 0) - autonomousBenchmarkForRevenue
+  );
+  const timeSavedHours = savedPerIncidentMs > 0 && wouldResolve.length > 0 ? Math.round(savedPerIncidentMs * wouldResolve.length / 36e5 * 10) / 10 : null;
+  const hoursPerIncident = savedPerIncidentMs > 0 ? Math.round(savedPerIncidentMs / 36e5 * 10) / 10 : null;
+  const timeSavedLabel = timeSavedHours != null && wouldResolve.length > 0 ? `${timeSavedHours}h saved across ${wouldResolve.length} incident${wouldResolve.length !== 1 ? "s" : ""}` : null;
+  const rate = entries.length > 0 ? Math.round(wouldResolve.length / entries.length * 100) : 0;
+  const topTags = byTag.slice(0, 3).map((t) => `${t.tag.replace(/^infra_/, "")}\xD7${t.total}`).join(", ");
+  const tagLine = topTags ? ` Top failure modes: ${topTags}.` : "";
+  let mttrLine = "";
+  if (avgAutonomousMttrMs !== null && avgManualMttrMs !== null) {
+    mttrLine = ` MTTR: ${fmtMs(avgAutonomousMttrMs)} autonomous (n=${autonomousMttrSamples.length}) vs. ${fmtMs(avgManualMttrMs)} manual (n=${manualMttrSamples.length}).`;
+  } else if (avgManualMttrMs !== null) {
+    mttrLine = ` Est. autonomous MTTR: ${fmtMs(ESTIMATED_AUTONOMOUS_MTTR_MS)} vs. ${fmtMs(avgManualMttrMs)} manual (n=${manualMttrSamples.length}).`;
+  } else if (avgActualMttrMs !== null) {
+    mttrLine = ` Average time-to-fix: ${fmtMs(ESTIMATED_AUTONOMOUS_MTTR_MS)} est. autonomous vs. ${fmtMs(avgActualMttrMs)} observed (n=${allMttrSamples.length}).`;
+  }
+  let contextAssistedLine = "";
+  if (avgContextAssistedMttrMs !== null && avgUnassistedMttrMs !== null) {
+    contextAssistedLine = ` Context-assisted manual MTTR: ${fmtMs(avgContextAssistedMttrMs)} (n=${contextAssistedMttrSamples.length}) vs. ${fmtMs(avgUnassistedMttrMs)} without (n=${unassistedMttrSamples.length}).`;
+  }
+  const timeSavedSentence = timeSavedLabel ? ` ${timeSavedLabel} of engineer time.` : "";
+  const _reviewedCount = reviewed.length;
+  const _corpusSize = corpus.length;
+  let falsePositiveLine = "";
+  if (falsePositiveRate !== null && _reviewedCount >= 5) {
+    const fpPct = Math.round(falsePositiveRate * 100);
+    falsePositiveLine = ` False positive rate: ${fpPct}% (${falsePositiveCount} of ${_reviewedCount} human-reviewed diagnoses).`;
+  } else if (_reviewedCount > 0 && _reviewedCount < 5) {
+    falsePositiveLine = ` False positive rate: pending (${_reviewedCount} of 5 human reviews needed for a reliable estimate).`;
+  }
+  let overrideFrequencyLine = "";
+  if (corpusBlockCount > 0) {
+    overrideFrequencyLine = ` Override corpus blocked ${corpusBlockCount} autonomous action${corpusBlockCount !== 1 ? "s" : ""} across ${_corpusSize} encoded pattern${_corpusSize !== 1 ? "s" : ""}.`;
+  } else if (_corpusSize > 0) {
+    overrideFrequencyLine = ` Override corpus has ${_corpusSize} encoded pattern${_corpusSize !== 1 ? "s" : ""} \u2014 none triggered in this window.`;
+  }
+  const deckSummary = `Mergen processed ${entries.length} incident${entries.length !== 1 ? "s" : ""} (n=${entries.length}).${tagLine} Autonomous resolution would have applied correctly ${wouldResolve.length} time${wouldResolve.length !== 1 ? "s" : ""} (${rate}%).` + mttrLine + contextAssistedLine + timeSavedSentence + falsePositiveLine + overrideFrequencyLine;
+  const comparisonRows = entries.slice().sort((a, b) => (b.firedAt ?? b.recordedAt) - (a.firedAt ?? a.recordedAt)).map((entry) => {
+    const inc = entry.pid ? incidentMap.get(entry.pid) : null;
+    const actualMttrMs = inc?.resolvedAt && inc.createdAt ? inc.resolvedAt - inc.createdAt : null;
+    let engineerAction = "Not yet reviewed";
+    let agreementType = "unreviewed";
+    let overrideReason = null;
+    if (entry.skipReason === "executed") {
+      engineerAction = "Executed autonomously";
+      agreementType = "agree";
+    } else if (entry.skipReason === "executed-failure") {
+      engineerAction = "Executed autonomously (failed)";
+      agreementType = "override";
+      overrideReason = "Command failed with non-zero exit code";
+    } else if (entry.skipReason === "blocked-by-safety-filter") {
+      engineerAction = "Blocked by safety gate";
+      agreementType = "override";
+      overrideReason = "Command triggered safety pattern blocklist";
+    } else if (entry.skipReason === "denied") {
+      engineerAction = "Denied by engineer";
+      agreementType = "override";
+      overrideReason = "Manual override via Slack gate";
+    } else if (entry.humanVerdict === "would-approve") {
+      engineerAction = "Would apply same fix";
+      agreementType = "agree";
+    } else if (entry.humanVerdict === "would-override" && entry.overrideId) {
+      const ov = overrideDetails.get(entry.overrideId) ?? null;
+      engineerAction = ov?.manualAction ?? "Override \u2014 see corpus";
+      overrideReason = ov?.overrideReason ?? null;
+      agreementType = "override";
+    }
+    return {
+      date: new Date(entry.firedAt ?? entry.recordedAt).toISOString().slice(0, 16).replace("T", " ") + " UTC",
+      service: entry.service,
+      failureMode: entry.incidentTag.replace(/^infra_/, ""),
+      mergenCommand: entry.command,
+      mergenConfidence: entry.remediationConfidence,
+      engineerAction,
+      agreementType,
+      overrideReason,
+      actualMttrMs,
+      outcome: inc?.status ?? null
+    };
+  });
+  const windowStartDate = new Date(cutoff);
+  const windowEndDate = new Date(now);
+  return {
+    generatedAt: new Date(now).toISOString(),
+    windowDays,
+    windowStart: windowStartDate.toISOString().slice(0, 10),
+    windowEnd: windowEndDate.toISOString().slice(0, 10),
+    totalIncidents: entries.length,
+    wouldResolveCount: wouldResolve.length,
+    wouldResolveRate: entries.length > 0 ? wouldResolve.length / entries.length : 0,
+    missedCount: missed.length,
+    estimatedAutonomousMttrMs: ESTIMATED_AUTONOMOUS_MTTR_MS,
+    avgAutonomousMttrMs,
+    autonomousMttrSampleSize: autonomousMttrSamples.length,
+    avgManualMttrMs,
+    manualMttrSampleSize: manualMttrSamples.length,
+    avgActualMttrMs,
+    mttrReductionPct,
+    mttrSelectionBiasCaveat: "Autonomous MTTR only covers incidents where confidence was \u226585% \u2014 the simpler, well-understood failure modes autopilot picked up. Manual MTTR covers all incidents, including complex ones autopilot skipped. For an unbiased comparison, filter manual MTTR to the same high-confidence cohort.",
+    avgContextAssistedMttrMs,
+    contextAssistedMttrSampleSize: contextAssistedMttrSamples.length,
+    avgUnassistedMttrMs,
+    unassistedMttrSampleSize: unassistedMttrSamples.length,
+    highConfidence,
+    mediumConfidence,
+    lowOrNoCommand,
+    overridePatterns: corpus.length,
+    corpusBlockCount,
+    byTag,
+    humanReviewedCount: reviewed.length,
+    humanApprovalRate,
+    rawHighConfidenceApprovedRate,
+    plattHighConfidenceApprovedRate,
+    falsePositiveRate,
+    falsePositiveCount,
+    executionBlocks,
+    comparisonRows,
+    deckSummary,
+    estimatedRevenuePreservedUsd,
+    estimatedDowntimeSavedUsd,
+    corpusPostmortems,
+    timeSavedHours,
+    hoursPerIncident,
+    timeSavedLabel,
+    agentBlunderSummary
+  };
+}
+function buildSlide(d) {
+  const msToMin = (ms) => ms == null ? null : Math.round(ms / 6e4 * 10) / 10;
+  const resolutionRate = d.totalIncidents > 0 ? Math.round(d.wouldResolveCount / d.totalIncidents * 100) : null;
+  return {
+    generatedAt: d.generatedAt,
+    windowDays: d.windowDays,
+    incidents_processed: d.totalIncidents,
+    autonomous_resolution_rate_pct: resolutionRate,
+    autonomous_resolution_count: d.wouldResolveCount,
+    mttr_autonomous_minutes: msToMin(d.avgAutonomousMttrMs ?? d.estimatedAutonomousMttrMs),
+    mttr_manual_minutes: msToMin(d.avgManualMttrMs),
+    mttr_reduction_pct: d.mttrReductionPct,
+    gate_false_positive_rate_pct: d.falsePositiveRate != null ? Math.round(d.falsePositiveRate * 100) : null,
+    gate_fp_annotation_coverage_pct: Math.round(
+      d.humanReviewedCount / Math.max(1, d.totalIncidents) * 100
+    ),
+    agent_blunders_blocked: d.agentBlunderSummary.totalPrevented,
+    blunder_chain_verified: d.agentBlunderSummary.chainVerified,
+    deck_summary: d.deckSummary
+  };
+}
+function pct(n) {
+  return `${Math.round(n * 100)}%`;
+}
+function num(n) {
+  return n.toLocaleString();
+}
+function buildHtml(d) {
+  const nonce = randomUUID().replace(/-/g, "");
+  const autoMttrLabel = d.avgAutonomousMttrMs !== null ? `${fmtMs(d.avgAutonomousMttrMs)} <span class="muted" style="font-weight:400;font-size:11px">(n=${d.autonomousMttrSampleSize} actual)</span>` : `${fmtMs(d.estimatedAutonomousMttrMs)} <span class="muted" style="font-weight:400;font-size:11px">(estimated)</span>`;
+  const manualMttr = d.avgManualMttrMs ?? d.avgActualMttrMs;
+  const manualN = d.avgManualMttrMs !== null ? d.manualMttrSampleSize : d.manualMttrSampleSize + d.autonomousMttrSampleSize;
+  const mttrRow = manualMttr !== null ? `
+    <tr>
+      <td>Avg. MTTR \u2014 manual resolution</td>
+      <td class="val">${fmtMs(manualMttr)} <span class="muted" style="font-weight:400;font-size:11px">(n=${manualN})</span></td>
+    </tr>
+    <tr>
+      <td>Avg. MTTR \u2014 autonomous resolution</td>
+      <td class="val green">${autoMttrLabel}</td>
+    </tr>
+    <tr>
+      <td>MTTR reduction</td>
+      <td class="val green">${d.mttrReductionPct !== null ? d.mttrReductionPct + "%" : "\u2014"}</td>
+    </tr>` : `
+    <tr>
+      <td>Autonomous MTTR</td>
+      <td class="val green">${autoMttrLabel}</td>
+    </tr>
+    <tr>
+      <td>Manual MTTR</td>
+      <td class="val muted">No resolved incidents in window</td>
+    </tr>`;
+  const tagRows = d.byTag.slice(0, 8).map((t) => `
+    <tr>
+      <td class="mono">${t.tag.replace(/^infra_/, "")}</td>
+      <td>${num(t.total)}</td>
+      <td>${num(t.wouldResolve)}</td>
+      <td class="${t.resolutionRate >= 0.85 ? "green" : t.resolutionRate >= 0.6 ? "yellow" : "red"}">${pct(t.resolutionRate)}</td>
+      <td class="muted">${t.avgActualMttrMs !== null ? fmtMs(t.avgActualMttrMs) : "\u2014"}</td>
+    </tr>`).join("");
+  const humanRow = d.humanApprovalRate !== null ? `<tr><td>Human approval rate (shadow review)</td><td class="val green">${pct(d.humanApprovalRate)} (${num(d.humanReviewedCount)} reviewed)</td></tr>` : `<tr><td>Human approval rate</td><td class="val muted">${d.humanReviewedCount < 3 ? "Awaiting reviews" : "\u2014"}</td></tr>`;
+  const overrideRow = d.overridePatterns > 0 ? `<tr><td>Override patterns learned</td><td class="val">${num(d.overridePatterns)} pattern${d.overridePatterns !== 1 ? "s" : ""} (${num(d.corpusBlockCount)} block${d.corpusBlockCount !== 1 ? "s" : ""})</td></tr>` : "";
+  const contextAssistedRow = d.avgContextAssistedMttrMs !== null && d.avgUnassistedMttrMs !== null ? `<tr>
+        <td>Manual MTTR \u2014 context-assisted (read brief)</td>
+        <td class="val green">${fmtMs(d.avgContextAssistedMttrMs)} <span class="muted" style="font-weight:400;font-size:11px">(n=${d.contextAssistedMttrSampleSize})</span></td>
+      </tr>
+      <tr>
+        <td>Manual MTTR \u2014 unassisted</td>
+        <td class="val">${fmtMs(d.avgUnassistedMttrMs)} <span class="muted" style="font-weight:400;font-size:11px">(n=${d.unassistedMttrSampleSize})</span></td>
+      </tr>` : "";
+  return `<!DOCTYPE html>
+<html lang="en">
+<head>
+<meta charset="UTF-8">
+<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1">
+<title>Mergen Impact Report \u2014 ${d.windowStart} to ${d.windowEnd}</title>
+<style nonce="${nonce}">
+  *{box-sizing:border-box;margin:0;padding:0}
+  :root{
+    --bg:#0f1117;--surface:#1a1d26;--border:#2a2d3a;
+    --text:#e2e8f0;--muted:#64748b;
+    --green:#22c55e;--yellow:#f59e0b;--red:#ef4444;--blue:#3b82f6;
+    --font:system-ui,-apple-system,sans-serif;
+  }
+  @media print{
+    :root{--bg:#fff;--surface:#f8f9fa;--border:#dee2e6;--text:#212529;--muted:#6c757d;
+      --green:#198754;--yellow:#fd7e14;--red:#dc3545;}
+    body{font-size:11pt}
+    .no-print{display:none}
+    a{color:var(--text)}
+  }
+  body{background:var(--bg);color:var(--text);font-family:var(--font);font-size:13px;line-height:1.6;padding:40px 24px;max-width:860px;margin:0 auto}
+  h1{font-size:22px;font-weight:700;margin-bottom:4px}
+  .subtitle{color:var(--muted);font-size:13px;margin-bottom:32px}
+  .deck-summary{
+    background:var(--surface);border:1px solid var(--border);border-left:4px solid var(--blue);
+    padding:16px 20px;border-radius:6px;font-size:15px;font-weight:500;margin-bottom:32px;line-height:1.5;
+  }
+  .grid{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr 1fr;gap:20px;margin-bottom:32px}
+  @media(max-width:900px){.grid{grid-template-columns:1fr}}
+  .card{background:var(--surface);border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:8px;padding:20px}
+  .card-title{font-size:10px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:.08em;text-transform:uppercase;color:var(--muted);margin-bottom:16px}
+  table{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse}
+  td{padding:6px 0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--border);font-size:12px;vertical-align:top}
+  td:last-child{text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid var(--border)}
+  tr:last-child td{border-bottom:none}
+  .val{font-weight:600;font-size:14px}
+  .green{color:var(--green)}
+  .yellow{color:var(--yellow)}
+  .red{color:var(--red)}
+  .muted{color:var(--muted)}
+  .mono{font-family:monospace;font-size:11px}
+  .big-number{font-size:36px;font-weight:700;line-height:1;margin-bottom:4px}
+  .big-label{font-size:11px;color:var(--muted);text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.06em}
+  .hero{display:flex;gap:24px;margin-bottom:32px}
+  .hero-item{flex:1;background:var(--surface);border:1px solid var(--border);border-radius:8px;padding:20px}
+  .tag-table{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;margin-top:8px}
+  .tag-table th{font-size:10px;font-weight:600;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.06em;color:var(--muted);padding:0 0 8px;text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid var(--border)}
+  .tag-table th:not(:first-child){text-align:right}
+  .tag-table td{padding:7px 0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--border);font-size:12px}
+  .tag-table td:not(:first-child){text-align:right}
+  .tag-table tr:last-child td{border-bottom:none}
+  .footer{margin-top:40px;font-size:11px;color:var(--muted);display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:center}
+  .print-btn{background:var(--blue);color:#fff;border:none;padding:8px 16px;border-radius:6px;cursor:pointer;font-size:12px;font-family:inherit}
+  .badge{display:inline-block;font-size:10px;font-weight:600;padding:2px 7px;border-radius:4px;margin-left:6px}
+  .badge-green{background:rgba(34,197,94,.15);color:var(--green)}
+  .badge-yellow{background:rgba(245,158,11,.15);color:var(--yellow)}
+  .badge-red{background:rgba(239,68,68,.12);color:var(--red)}
+  /* Comparison table */
+  .cmp-wrap{overflow-x:auto;margin-bottom:32px}
+  .cmp{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:11px}
+  .cmp th{font-size:10px;font-weight:600;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.06em;color:var(--muted);padding:0 8px 8px 0;text-align:left;border-bottom:2px solid var(--border);white-space:nowrap}
+  .cmp td{padding:8px 8px 8px 0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--border);vertical-align:top}
+  .cmp tr:last-child td{border-bottom:none}
+  .cmp .date{white-space:nowrap;color:var(--muted)}
+  .cmp .cmd{font-family:monospace;font-size:10px;background:rgba(255,255,255,.04);padding:2px 5px;border-radius:3px;display:inline-block;max-width:260px;overflow:hidden;text-overflow:ellipsis;white-space:nowrap}
+  .cmp .agree{color:var(--green)}
+  .cmp .override{color:var(--yellow)}
+  .cmp .unreviewed{color:var(--muted)}
+  .cmp .conf{font-size:10px;color:var(--muted)}
+  .cmp .reason{font-size:10px;color:var(--yellow);display:block;margin-top:2px}
+</style>
+</head>
+<body>
+<h1>Mergen Impact Report</h1>
+<div class="subtitle">${d.windowStart} \u2192 ${d.windowEnd} &nbsp;\xB7&nbsp; ${d.windowDays}-day window &nbsp;\xB7&nbsp; Generated ${new Date(d.generatedAt).toUTCString()}</div>
+
+<div class="deck-summary">${d.deckSummary}</div>
+
+<div class="hero">
+  <div class="hero-item">
+    <div class="big-number ${d.wouldResolveRate >= 0.8 ? "green" : d.wouldResolveRate >= 0.6 ? "yellow" : "red"}">${pct(d.wouldResolveRate)}</div>
+    <div class="big-label">Autonomous resolution rate</div>
+  </div>
+  <div class="hero-item">
+    <div class="big-number">${num(d.totalIncidents)}</div>
+    <div class="big-label">Incidents processed</div>
+  </div>
+  ${d.timeSavedHours !== null ? `
+  <div class="hero-item">
+    <div class="big-number green">${d.timeSavedHours}h</div>
+    <div class="big-label">Engineer time saved${d.hoursPerIncident !== null ? ` \xB7 ${d.hoursPerIncident}h per incident` : ""}</div>
+  </div>` : ""}
+  ${d.estimatedDowntimeSavedUsd !== null ? `
+  <div class="hero-item">
+    <div class="big-number green">$${d.estimatedDowntimeSavedUsd.toLocaleString()}</div>
+    <div class="big-label">Estimated downtime cost prevented</div>
+  </div>` : ""}
+  <div class="hero-item">
+    <div class="big-number green">${fmtMs(d.avgAutonomousMttrMs ?? d.estimatedAutonomousMttrMs)}</div>
+    <div class="big-label">${d.avgAutonomousMttrMs !== null ? `Autonomous MTTR (n=${d.autonomousMttrSampleSize})` : "Est. autonomous MTTR"}</div>
+  </div>
+  ${d.avgActualMttrMs !== null ? `
+  <div class="hero-item">
+    <div class="big-number">${fmtMs(d.avgActualMttrMs)}</div>
+    <div class="big-label">Avg. manual MTTR</div>
+  </div>` : ""}
+  <div class="hero-item">
+    <div class="big-number ${d.agentBlunderSummary.totalPrevented > 0 ? "green" : ""}">${num(d.agentBlunderSummary.totalPrevented)}</div>
+    <div class="big-label">Destructive actions blocked by gate</div>
+  </div>
+</div>
+
+${(() => {
+    const blunder = d.agentBlunderSummary;
+    const chainBadge = blunder.chainVerified ? `<span class="badge badge-green">chain verified</span>` : `<span class="badge badge-yellow">unverified</span>`;
+    const typeRows = Object.entries(blunder.byType).sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]).map(([t, n]) => `<tr><td class="mono">${t.replace(/_/g, " ")}</td><td class="val">${num(n)}</td></tr>`).join("");
+    return `
+<div class="card" style="margin-bottom:32px">
+  <div class="card-title">Gate Enforcement (Agent Blunder Log) ${chainBadge}</div>
+  <table>
+    <tr><td>Total actions blocked by Mergen enforcement gate</td><td class="val ${blunder.totalPrevented > 0 ? "green" : "muted"}">${num(blunder.totalPrevented)}</td></tr>
+    ${typeRows || '<tr><td class="muted" colspan="2">No blocked actions recorded in this period \u2014 gate active, no agent attempted a destructive action</td></tr>'}
+  </table>
+</div>`;
+  })()}
+
+<div class="grid">
+  <div class="card">
+    <div class="card-title">Resolution summary</div>
+    <table>
+      <tr><td>Would resolve autonomously</td><td class="val green">${num(d.wouldResolveCount)}</td></tr>
+      <tr><td>Would require manual action</td><td class="val">${num(d.missedCount)}</td></tr>
+      ${mttrRow}
+      ${contextAssistedRow}
+      ${humanRow}
+      ${overrideRow}
+    </table>
+  </div>
+  <div class="card">
+    <div class="card-title">Confidence distribution</div>
+    <table>
+      <tr>
+        <td>HIGH \u2014 would execute (\u226585%)</td>
+        <td class="val green">${num(d.highConfidence)}
+          <span class="badge badge-green">${d.totalIncidents > 0 ? pct(d.highConfidence / d.totalIncidents) : "0%"}</span>
+        </td>
+      </tr>
+      <tr>
+        <td>MEDIUM \u2014 diagnosis only (70\u201384%)</td>
+        <td class="val yellow">${num(d.mediumConfidence)}
+          <span class="badge badge-yellow">${d.totalIncidents > 0 ? pct(d.mediumConfidence / d.totalIncidents) : "0%"}</span>
+        </td>
+      </tr>
+      <tr>
+        <td>LOW / no executable fix (&lt;70%)</td>
+        <td class="val muted">${num(d.lowOrNoCommand)}
+          <span class="badge badge-red">${d.totalIncidents > 0 ? pct(d.lowOrNoCommand / d.totalIncidents) : "0%"}</span>
+        </td>
+      </tr>
+    </table>
+  </div>
+  <div class="card">
+    <div class="card-title">Calibration & Safety (Platt)</div>
+    <table>
+      <tr>
+        <td>Raw High-Conf. Accuracy</td>
+        <td class="val">${d.rawHighConfidenceApprovedRate !== null ? pct(d.rawHighConfidenceApprovedRate) : "\u2014"}</td>
+      </tr>
+      <tr>
+        <td>Platt-Calibrated Accuracy</td>
+        <td class="val green">${d.plattHighConfidenceApprovedRate !== null ? pct(d.plattHighConfidenceApprovedRate) : "\u2014"}</td>
+      </tr>
+      <tr>
+        <td>False Positive Rate</td>
+        <td class="val red">${d.falsePositiveRate !== null ? pct(d.falsePositiveRate) : "\u2014"}</td>
+      </tr>
+      <tr>
+        <td>False Positives (Overrides)</td>
+        <td class="val">${num(d.falsePositiveCount)}</td>
+      </tr>
+    </table>
+  </div>
+</div>
+
+${d.executionBlocks.length > 0 ? `
+<div class="card" style="margin-bottom:32px">
+  <div class="card-title">Execution Blocks (triggered by &ge;85% confidence gate)</div>
+  <table class="tag-table">
+    <thead>
+      <tr>
+        <th>Date</th>
+        <th>Service</th>
+        <th>Command</th>
+        <th>Confidence</th>
+        <th>Block Source</th>
+        <th>Reason</th>
+      </tr>
+    </thead>
+    <tbody>
+      ${d.executionBlocks.map((b) => `
+        <tr>
+          <td class="muted">${b.date}</td>
+          <td>${b.service}</td>
+          <td><code class="mono" style="background:rgba(255,255,255,.04);padding:2px 5px;border-radius:3px">${b.command}</code></td>
+          <td>${pct(b.confidence)}</td>
+          <td><span class="badge badge-yellow">${b.blockedBy}</span></td>
+          <td class="yellow">${b.reason}</td>
+        </tr>
+      `).join("")}
+    </tbody>
+  </table>
+</div>` : ""}
+
+${d.byTag.length > 0 ? `
+<div class="card" style="margin-bottom:32px">
+  <div class="card-title">By failure mode</div>
+  <table class="tag-table">
+    <thead>
+      <tr>
+        <th>Failure mode</th>
+        <th>Incidents</th>
+        <th>Would resolve</th>
+        <th>Rate</th>
+        <th>Avg. manual MTTR</th>
+      </tr>
+    </thead>
+    <tbody>${tagRows}</tbody>
+  </table>
+</div>` : ""}
+
+${d.comparisonRows.length > 0 ? buildComparisonTable(d.comparisonRows) : ""}
+
+<div class="footer">
+  <span>Mergen shadow mode \xB7 <a href="/shadow-report">shadow-report</a> \xB7 <a href="/override-corpus">override-corpus</a></span>
+  <button class="print-btn no-print" onclick="window.print()">Save as PDF</button>
+</div>
+</body>
+</html>`;
+}
+function buildComparisonTable(rows) {
+  const agreeIcon = "\u2713";
+  const overrideIcon = "\u2195";
+  const pendingIcon = "\xB7";
+  const trs = rows.map((r) => {
+    const cls = r.agreementType;
+    const icon = cls === "agree" ? agreeIcon : cls === "override" ? overrideIcon : pendingIcon;
+    const cmdCell = r.mergenCommand ? `<span class="cmd" title="${r.mergenCommand}">${r.mergenCommand}</span>` : '<span class="muted">No executable fix</span>';
+    const trustBadge = r.mergenCommand ? `<span class="badge badge-green" style="margin-left:0; margin-top:4px; display:inline-block;">\u{1F6E1} Empirically Verified (${Math.round(r.mergenConfidence * 100)}% accuracy)</span>` : `<span class="conf">${Math.round(r.mergenConfidence * 100)}% remediation confidence</span>`;
+    const engineerCell = cls === "unreviewed" ? `<span class="unreviewed">Not yet reviewed \u2014 POST /shadow-report/${r.service}/verdict</span>` : r.engineerAction;
+    const reasonSpan = r.overrideReason ? `<span class="reason">${r.overrideReason}</span>` : "";
+    const mttr = r.actualMttrMs !== null ? fmtMs(r.actualMttrMs) : "\u2014";
+    const ghostTimeline = r.actualMttrMs !== null ? `<div style="margin-top:6px;font-size:10px;padding-left:6px;border-left:2px solid var(--border);color:var(--muted)">
+           <i>Manual: ${fmtMs(r.actualMttrMs)} (Page \u2192 Wake up \u2192 Diagnose)</i><br>
+           <i>Mergen: ~2m (Trigger \u2192 Fix)</i>
+         </div>` : "";
+    const outcome = r.outcome ?? "\u2014";
+    return `<tr>
+      <td class="date">${r.date}</td>
+      <td>${r.service}<br><span class="conf">${r.failureMode}</span></td>
+      <td>${cmdCell}<br>${trustBadge}</td>
+      <td class="${cls}">${icon} ${engineerCell}${reasonSpan}</td>
+      <td class="muted">${mttr}${ghostTimeline}</td>
+      <td class="muted">${outcome}</td>
+    </tr>`;
+  }).join("");
+  const unreviewedCount = rows.filter((r) => r.agreementType === "unreviewed").length;
+  const unreviewedNote = unreviewedCount > 0 ? `<p style="font-size:11px;color:var(--muted);margin-top:10px">${unreviewedCount} incident${unreviewedCount !== 1 ? "s" : ""} not yet reviewed. Use <code>POST /shadow-report/:id/verdict</code> to annotate \u2014 "would-approve" or "would-override".</p>` : "";
+  return `<div class="card cmp-wrap" style="margin-bottom:32px">
+  <div class="card-title">Incident comparison \u2014 what Mergen would have done vs. what happened</div>
+  <table class="cmp">
+    <thead><tr>
+      <th>Date</th>
+      <th>Service / Failure mode</th>
+      <th>Mergen's proposed action</th>
+      <th>Engineer's action</th>
+      <th>Actual MTTR</th>
+      <th>Outcome</th>
+    </tr></thead>
+    <tbody>${trs}</tbody>
+  </table>
+  ${unreviewedNote}
+</div>`;
+}
+export {
+  createImpactReportRouter
+};