marketing-mindset 1.9.0 → 1.11.0

package/README.md

@@ -137,3 +137,43 @@ difference, and decides: not readable (the interval includes zero), a lead rathe
 but below the per-arm volume the observed lift would need), or readable. `--alpha` takes the same three
 values as `sample` (0.05, 0.01, 0.1) and the floor is computed with the same formula, so the answer stays
 consistent with the plan that produced the test.
+
+## `queue` — how many honest tests your volume can finish
+
+Ideas are not the constraint. At a 3% base rate and a +20% relative lift a strict two-arm test needs 13,914
+contacts per arm, so the number of tests a quarter can hold is set by the volume, not the backlog. `queue`
+turns that volume into a dated queue.
+
+```bash
+npx marketing-mindset queue --daily 500 --days 90 --start 2026-09-21
+# floor: 13,914 contacts per arm (27,828 in both arms) at a 3.00% base rate, +20% relative lift, power 0.8, alpha 0.05
+# one honest test: 56 days at 500 contacts a day
+# queue: 1 test in 90 days (62% of the horizon inside a test, 34 days outside one)
+# read-out dates: 2026-11-16
+```
+
+`--json` returns the same object: `floor_per_arm`, `total_contacts`, `days_per_test`, `tests_in_horizon`,
+`read_dates`, `idle_days`, `used_pct` and the three gates. The floor uses the same formula as `sample`, so a
+queue planned here and a test read with `verdict` stay consistent. Two things it refuses to hide: the read-out
+is one look (peeking daily is not covered by alpha), and two live tests in the same arm split the volume.
+
+## `cost` — what one readable verdict costs to finish
+
+A test budget is not spent on ideas, it is spent on reaching a floor. `cost` prices one readable verdict: the
+contacts a strict two-arm test needs, multiplied by what a contact costs you, plus the days it takes to send them.
+
+```bash
+npx marketing-mindset cost --cost 0.02 --daily 500 --budget 5000
+# floor: 13,914 contacts per arm (27,828 in both arms) at a 3.00% base rate, +20% relative lift
+# time: 56 days at 500 contacts a day
+# cost of one readable test: 556.56 (278.28 per arm) at 0.02 per contact
+# cost of one conversion: 0.67 at the base rate, 0.56 at the lifted rate
+# budget: 8 fully funded test(s) a month at a budget of 5000
+```
+
+`--json` returns the same object: `floor_per_arm`, `total_contacts`, `days_per_test`, `cost_per_arm`,
+`cost_per_test`, `cost_per_conversion_base`, `cost_per_conversion_target`, `tests_per_budget`,
+`months_to_fund_one` and the three gates. Money is expressed in whatever unit you pass to `--cost`; no currency is
+assumed. The floor uses the same formula as `sample`, so a budget planned here, a queue planned with `queue` and a
+test read with `verdict` stay consistent. Two things it refuses to hide: stopping before the floor buys a sample
+rather than a result, and money buys tests while volume limits how many can run at once.

package/bin/cli.js

@@ -5,6 +5,8 @@
  *   marketing-mindset kill           the kill rule for a running test
  *   marketing-mindset mde            smallest relative lift a fixed per-arm volume can read
  *   marketing-mindset verdict        read a finished test: interval, floor, honest verdict
+ *   marketing-mindset queue          volume into a queue of honest tests with read-out dates
+ *   marketing-mindset cost           the cost of one readable verdict, and funded tests per budget
  *   marketing-mindset sections       list every section of SKILL.md
  *   marketing-mindset read <text>    print one section by fuzzy title match
  *   marketing-mindset install        copy the skill into your agent's skills directory
@@ -510,6 +512,119 @@ function runVerdict(opts) {
   return 0;
 }
 
+function qAddDays(fromIso, days) {
+  const d = new Date(fromIso + "T00:00:00Z");
+  d.setUTCDate(d.getUTCDate() + days);
+  return d.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+}
+
+function runQueue(opts) {
+  const base = Number(opts.base !== undefined ? opts.base : 0.03);
+  const lift = Number(opts.lift !== undefined ? opts.lift : 0.2);
+  const daily = Number(opts.daily);
+  const days = Number(opts.days !== undefined ? opts.days : 90);
+  const power = Number(opts.power !== undefined ? opts.power : 0.8);
+  const alpha = Number(opts.alpha !== undefined ? opts.alpha : 0.05);
+  const start = String(opts.start !== undefined ? opts.start : "");
+  const problems = [];
+  if (!(base > 0) || !(base < 1)) { problems.push("base rate: a number between 0 and 1 (0.03 = 3%)"); }
+  if (!(lift > 0) || !(lift < 5)) { problems.push("lift worth detecting: a fraction, 0.2 = +20% relative"); }
+  if (!(daily > 0)) { problems.push("contacts a day: pass --daily 500"); }
+  if (!(days > 0)) { problems.push("horizon in days: pass --days 90"); }
+  if (!ZB[String(power)]) { problems.push("power must be 0.8 or 0.9"); }
+  if (!ZA[String(alpha)]) { problems.push("alpha must be 0.05, 0.01 or 0.1"); }
+  if (!/^\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}$/.test(start)) { problems.push("start date: pass --start 2026-09-21"); }
+  if (problems.length) { console.error("queue: " + problems.join("; ")); return 1; }
+
+  const per_arm = sampleSize(base, lift, power, alpha);
+  const total_contacts = per_arm * 2;
+  const days_per_test = Math.ceil(total_contacts / daily);
+  const tests_in_horizon = Math.floor(days / days_per_test);
+  const read_dates = [];
+  for (let i = 0; i < tests_in_horizon; i++) { read_dates.push(qAddDays(start, days_per_test * (i + 1))); }
+  const idle_days = days - tests_in_horizon * days_per_test;
+  const used_pct = Math.round((tests_in_horizon * days_per_test * 100) / days);
+  const gates = [
+    "one look only: the floor date is the look that alpha " + alpha + " priced in - reading the same test daily is not covered by it",
+    "split audiences: two live tests in one arm halve the contacts a day, so neither reaches its floor",
+    tests_in_horizon === 0
+      ? "capacity: one honest test does not fit in " + days + " days at " + daily + " contacts a day - plan the queue, not the ideas"
+      : "capacity: " + tests_in_horizon + " honest test" + (tests_in_horizon === 1 ? "" : "s") + " fit in " + days + " days, " + idle_days + " days outside a test"
+  ];
+  const out = {
+    base_rate: base, lift: lift, power: power, alpha: alpha, daily: daily, horizon_days: days, start: start,
+    floor_per_arm: per_arm, total_contacts: total_contacts, days_per_test: days_per_test,
+    tests_in_horizon: tests_in_horizon, read_dates: read_dates, idle_days: idle_days, used_pct: used_pct,
+    gates: gates
+  };
+  if (opts.json) { console.log(JSON.stringify(out, null, 2)); } else {
+    console.log("floor: " + fmtNum(per_arm) + " contacts per arm (" + fmtNum(total_contacts) + " in both arms) at a " + (base * 100).toFixed(2) + "% base rate, +" + (lift * 100).toFixed(0) + "% relative lift, power " + power + ", alpha " + alpha);
+    console.log("one honest test: " + days_per_test + " days at " + fmtNum(daily) + " contacts a day");
+    console.log("queue: " + tests_in_horizon + " test" + (tests_in_horizon === 1 ? "" : "s") + " in " + days + " days (" + used_pct + "% of the horizon inside a test, " + idle_days + " days outside one)");
+    if (read_dates.length) { console.log("read-out dates: " + read_dates.join(", ")); }
+    else { console.log("read-out date: does not fit in this horizon"); }
+    gates.forEach(function (g) { console.log("gate: " + g); });
+  }
+  return 0;
+}
+
+function cRound2(x) { return Math.round(x * 100) / 100; }
+
+function runCost(opts) {
+  const base = Number(opts.base !== undefined ? opts.base : 0.03);
+  const lift = Number(opts.lift !== undefined ? opts.lift : 0.2);
+  const cost = Number(opts.cost);
+  const daily = Number(opts.daily);
+  const budget = opts.budget !== undefined ? Number(opts.budget) : 0;
+  const power = Number(opts.power !== undefined ? opts.power : 0.8);
+  const alpha = Number(opts.alpha !== undefined ? opts.alpha : 0.05);
+  const problems = [];
+  if (!(base > 0) || !(base < 1)) { problems.push("base rate: a number between 0 and 1 (0.03 = 3%)"); }
+  if (!(lift > 0) || !(lift < 5)) { problems.push("lift worth detecting: a fraction, 0.2 = +20% relative"); }
+  if (!(cost > 0)) { problems.push("cost per contact: pass --cost 0.02 in your own currency"); }
+  if (!(daily > 0)) { problems.push("contacts a day: pass --daily 500"); }
+  if (!(budget >= 0)) { problems.push("monthly budget: pass --budget 5000, or leave it out"); }
+  if (!ZB[String(power)]) { problems.push("power must be 0.8 or 0.9"); }
+  if (!ZA[String(alpha)]) { problems.push("alpha must be 0.05, 0.01 or 0.1"); }
+  if (problems.length) { console.error("cost: " + problems.join("; ")); return 1; }
+
+  const per_arm = sampleSize(base, lift, power, alpha);
+  const total_contacts = per_arm * 2;
+  const days_per_test = Math.ceil(total_contacts / daily);
+  const cost_per_arm = cRound2(per_arm * cost);
+  const cost_per_test = cRound2(total_contacts * cost);
+  const cost_per_conversion = cRound2(cost / base);
+  const cost_per_conversion_target = cRound2(cost / (base * (1 + lift)));
+  const tests_per_budget = budget > 0 ? Math.floor(budget / cost_per_test) : 0;
+  const months_to_fund_one = (budget > 0 && tests_per_budget === 0) ? Math.ceil(cost_per_test / budget) : 0;
+  const gates = [
+    "a verdict costs the whole floor: stopping before " + fmtNum(total_contacts) + " contacts produces a sample, not a result",
+    "cost per contact is not cost per result: at a " + (base * 100).toFixed(2) + "% base rate one conversion costs about " + cost_per_conversion + " in contacts",
+    tests_per_budget === 0
+      ? "budget: one fully funded test needs " + cost_per_test + ", which this budget reaches in " + months_to_fund_one + " month(s)"
+      : "budget: " + tests_per_budget + " fully funded test(s) a month - volume, not money, sets how many can run at once"
+  ];
+  const out = {
+    base_rate: base, lift: lift, power: power, alpha: alpha, cost_per_contact: cost, daily: daily, budget: budget,
+    floor_per_arm: per_arm, total_contacts: total_contacts, days_per_test: days_per_test,
+    cost_per_arm: cost_per_arm, cost_per_test: cost_per_test,
+    cost_per_conversion_base: cost_per_conversion, cost_per_conversion_target: cost_per_conversion_target,
+    tests_per_budget: tests_per_budget, months_to_fund_one: months_to_fund_one, gates: gates
+  };
+  if (opts.json) { console.log(JSON.stringify(out, null, 2)); } else {
+    console.log("floor: " + fmtNum(per_arm) + " contacts per arm (" + fmtNum(total_contacts) + " in both arms) at a " + (base * 100).toFixed(2) + "% base rate, +" + (lift * 100).toFixed(0) + "% relative lift");
+    console.log("time: " + days_per_test + " days at " + fmtNum(daily) + " contacts a day");
+    console.log("cost of one readable test: " + cost_per_test + " (" + cost_per_arm + " per arm) at " + cost + " per contact");
+    console.log("cost of one conversion: " + cost_per_conversion + " at the base rate, " + cost_per_conversion_target + " at the lifted rate");
+    if (budget > 0) {
+      console.log("budget: " + tests_per_budget + " fully funded test(s) a month at a budget of " + budget);
+      if (tests_per_budget === 0) { console.log("budget: one test needs " + months_to_fund_one + " month(s) of this budget"); }
+    } else { console.log("budget: not given - pass --budget to see how many funded tests it carries"); }
+    gates.forEach(function (g) { console.log("gate: " + g); });
+  }
+  return 0;
+}
+
 function fmtNum(n) {
   return String(n).replace(/\B(?=(\d{3})+(?!\d))/g, ",");
 }
@@ -642,6 +757,10 @@ if (cmd === "sample") {
   }, null, 2));
 } else if (cmd === "verdict") {
   process.exit(runVerdict(flags(rest)));
+} else if (cmd === "queue") {
+  process.exit(runQueue(flags(rest)));
+} else if (cmd === "cost") {
+  process.exit(runCost(flags(rest)));
 } else if (cmd === "aeo") {
   process.exit(runAeo(flags(rest)));
 } else if (cmd === "brief") {
@@ -685,6 +804,10 @@ Usage:
   npx marketing-mindset plan            dated plan: weekly volume, gates, first honest read
       --base 0.03 --lift 0.2 --daily 500 [--weeks 4] [--start 2026-09-21]
   npx marketing-mindset verdict         was the difference real, and was the volume ever enough?
+  npx marketing-mindset queue           how many honest tests your volume can finish, and when each reads
+  npx marketing-mindset cost            what one readable verdict costs to finish, and how many a budget funds
+      --cost 0.02 --daily 500 [--budget 5000] [--base 0.03] [--lift 0.2] [--power 0.8] [--alpha 0.05]
+      --daily 500 --days 90 --start 2026-09-21 [--base 0.03] [--lift 0.2] [--power 0.8] [--alpha 0.05]
       --a 120/4000 --b 168/4000 [--alpha 0.05] [--json]
   npx marketing-mindset mde             what a volume you can afford can actually read
       --base 0.03 --per-arm 5000 [--power 0.8] [--alpha 0.05] [--json]

package/package.json

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 {
   "name": "marketing-mindset",
-  "version": "1.9.0",
-  "description": "A marketer's operating mindset as an installable agent skill and CLI: test-size floors, kill rules, honest verdicts on finished tests, the lift a volume can read, agent-readiness checklist, marketing-engineer job description. npx marketing-mindset sample|kill|verdict|mde|budget|brief|plan|warmup|aeo|jd|sections|read|install.",
+  "version": "1.11.0",
+  "description": "A marketer's operating mindset as an installable agent skill and CLI: test-size floors, kill rules, honest verdicts on finished tests, the lift a volume can read, a queue of readable tests with read-out dates, the cost of one readable verdict, agent-readiness checklist, marketing-engineer job description. npx marketing-mindset sample|kill|verdict|queue|cost|mde|budget|brief|plan|warmup|aeo|jd|sections|read|install.",
   "keywords": [
     "agent-skill",
     "skill",
@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@
     "llm",
     "prompt",
     "sample-size",
+    "test-queue",
+    "cost-per-verdict",
     "ab-test-verdict",
     "minimum-detectable-effect",
     "job-description",