marketing-mindset 1.8.0 → 1.10.0

package/README.md

@@ -114,3 +114,45 @@ npx marketing-mindset mde --base 0.03 --per-arm 5000 --json
 (0.05, 0.01, 0.1) are the same knobs as `sample`. When no lift is readable at that volume the command
 says so instead of printing a number, and names the three ways out: more volume, a higher base rate, or a
 cheaper measurable unit (for cold email the reply rate, floor ~1,500–2,000 sends per variant).
+
+## `verdict` — was the difference real, and was the volume ever enough
+
+Reading a finished test is a different job from planning one, and the two honest failure modes are opposite:
+a difference that is inside the noise, and a difference that is real but was never readable at that volume.
+`verdict` answers both from two counts.
+
+```bash
+npx marketing-mindset verdict --a 120/4000 --b 168/4000
+# control 120/4,000 = 3.00% · variant 168/4,000 = 4.20%
+# difference: 1.2pp (40.0% relative) · interval 0.44pp .. 1.96pp
+# separated from noise: true · volume clears the floor: true
+# verdict: readable: the interval excludes zero and the volume clears the 4,994 the observed lift requires ...
+
+npx marketing-mindset verdict --a 120/4000 --b 168/4000 --json
+npx marketing-mindset verdict --a-conv 120 --a-n 4000 --b-conv 168 --b-n 4000
+```
+
+Each arm is `conversions/sample`. The command prints a Wilson interval per arm, a Newcombe interval for the
+difference, and decides: not readable (the interval includes zero), a lead rather than a verdict (separated,
+but below the per-arm volume the observed lift would need), or readable. `--alpha` takes the same three
+values as `sample` (0.05, 0.01, 0.1) and the floor is computed with the same formula, so the answer stays
+consistent with the plan that produced the test.
+
+## `queue` — how many honest tests your volume can finish
+
+Ideas are not the constraint. At a 3% base rate and a +20% relative lift a strict two-arm test needs 13,914
+contacts per arm, so the number of tests a quarter can hold is set by the volume, not the backlog. `queue`
+turns that volume into a dated queue.
+
+```bash
+npx marketing-mindset queue --daily 500 --days 90 --start 2026-09-21
+# floor: 13,914 contacts per arm (27,828 in both arms) at a 3.00% base rate, +20% relative lift, power 0.8, alpha 0.05
+# one honest test: 56 days at 500 contacts a day
+# queue: 1 test in 90 days (62% of the horizon inside a test, 34 days outside one)
+# read-out dates: 2026-11-16
+```
+
+`--json` returns the same object: `floor_per_arm`, `total_contacts`, `days_per_test`, `tests_in_horizon`,
+`read_dates`, `idle_days`, `used_pct` and the three gates. The floor uses the same formula as `sample`, so a
+queue planned here and a test read with `verdict` stay consistent. Two things it refuses to hide: the read-out
+is one look (peeking daily is not covered by alpha), and two live tests in the same arm split the volume.

package/bin/cli.js

@@ -4,6 +4,8 @@
  *   marketing-mindset sample         required per-arm sample size for a two-proportion test
  *   marketing-mindset kill           the kill rule for a running test
  *   marketing-mindset mde            smallest relative lift a fixed per-arm volume can read
+ *   marketing-mindset verdict        read a finished test: interval, floor, honest verdict
+ *   marketing-mindset queue          volume into a queue of honest tests with read-out dates
  *   marketing-mindset sections       list every section of SKILL.md
  *   marketing-mindset read <text>    print one section by fuzzy title match
  *   marketing-mindset install        copy the skill into your agent's skills directory
@@ -438,6 +440,133 @@ function runMde(opts) {
   return 0;
 }
 
+function wilsonInterval(conv, n, alpha) {
+  const z = ZA[String(alpha)] || ZA["0.05"];
+  const p = conv / n;
+  const d = 1 + (z * z) / n;
+  const centre = (p + (z * z) / (2 * n)) / d;
+  const half = (z * Math.sqrt((p * (1 - p)) / n + (z * z) / (4 * n * n))) / d;
+  return { low: Math.max(0, centre - half), high: Math.min(1, centre + half) };
+}
+
+function parseArm(v) {
+  const s = String(v === undefined ? "" : v).trim();
+  const m = s.match(/^(\d+)\s*\/\s*(\d+)$/);
+  if (!m) { return null; }
+  return { conv: Number(m[1]), n: Number(m[2]) };
+}
+
+function r6(x) { return Math.round(x * 1e6) / 1e6; }
+
+function runVerdict(opts) {
+  const alpha = Number(opts.alpha !== undefined ? opts.alpha : 0.05);
+  let aRaw = opts.a;
+  if (aRaw === undefined && opts["a-conv"] !== undefined && opts["a-n"] !== undefined) {
+    aRaw = opts["a-conv"] + "/" + opts["a-n"];
+  }
+  let bRaw = opts.b;
+  if (bRaw === undefined && opts["b-conv"] !== undefined && opts["b-n"] !== undefined) {
+    bRaw = opts["b-conv"] + "/" + opts["b-n"];
+  }
+  const problems = [];
+  const a = parseArm(aRaw), b = parseArm(bRaw);
+  if (!a) { problems.push("control arm: pass --a 120/4000 (conversions/sample)"); }
+  if (!b) { problems.push("variant arm: pass --b 168/4000 (conversions/sample)"); }
+  if (a && (a.n <= 0 || a.conv > a.n)) { problems.push("control arm must be conversions <= sample and a positive sample"); }
+  if (b && (b.n <= 0 || b.conv > b.n)) { problems.push("variant arm must be conversions <= sample and a positive sample"); }
+  if (!ZA[String(alpha)]) { problems.push("alpha must be 0.05, 0.01 or 0.1"); }
+  if (problems.length) { console.error("verdict: " + problems.join("; ")); return 1; }
+
+  const pa = a.conv / a.n, pb = b.conv / b.n;
+  const ia = wilsonInterval(a.conv, a.n, alpha), ib = wilsonInterval(b.conv, b.n, alpha);
+  const diff = pb - pa;
+  const lo = diff - Math.sqrt(Math.pow(pa - ia.low, 2) + Math.pow(ib.high - pb, 2));
+  const hi = diff + Math.sqrt(Math.pow(ia.high - pa, 2) + Math.pow(pb - ib.low, 2));
+  const decisive = lo > 0 || hi < 0;
+  const rel = pa > 0 ? diff / pa : null;
+  const floor = rel !== null && rel !== 0 ? sampleSize(pa, Math.abs(rel), 0.8, alpha) : null;
+  const underpowered = floor !== null && b.n < floor;
+  let verdict;
+  if (!decisive) {
+    verdict = "not readable: the " + ((1 - alpha) * 100) + "% interval for the difference includes zero, so the point estimate is noise dressed as a result. The honest moves are more volume, a higher base rate, or a bigger difference - not a rebuild.";
+  } else if (underpowered) {
+    verdict = "a lead, not a verdict: the interval excludes zero, but " + fmtNum(b.n) + " per arm is below the " + fmtNum(floor) + " the observed lift would need. Keep it running to the floor before anything is rebuilt on it.";
+  } else {
+    verdict = "readable: the interval excludes zero and the volume clears the " + fmtNum(floor) + " the observed lift requires - this is the number a decision can be taken on.";
+  }
+  const out = {
+    control: { conversions: a.conv, n: a.n, rate: r6(pa), wilson_low: r6(ia.low), wilson_high: r6(ia.high) },
+    variant: { conversions: b.conv, n: b.n, rate: r6(pb), wilson_low: r6(ib.low), wilson_high: r6(ib.high) },
+    absolute_lift_pp: r6(diff * 100),
+    relative_lift: rel === null ? null : r6(rel),
+    difference_interval: [r6(lo), r6(hi)],
+    decisive, floor_per_arm: floor, underpowered, alpha, verdict
+  };
+  if (opts.json) { console.log(JSON.stringify(out, null, 2)); } else {
+    console.log("control " + a.conv + "/" + fmtNum(a.n) + " = " + (pa * 100).toFixed(2) + "% · variant " + b.conv + "/" + fmtNum(b.n) + " = " + (pb * 100).toFixed(2) + "%");
+    console.log("difference: " + out.absolute_lift_pp + "pp" + (rel === null ? "" : " (" + (rel * 100).toFixed(1) + "% relative)") + " · interval " + (lo * 100).toFixed(2) + "pp .. " + (hi * 100).toFixed(2) + "pp");
+    console.log("separated from noise: " + decisive + " · volume clears the floor: " + !underpowered);
+    console.log("verdict: " + verdict);
+  }
+  return 0;
+}
+
+function qAddDays(fromIso, days) {
+  const d = new Date(fromIso + "T00:00:00Z");
+  d.setUTCDate(d.getUTCDate() + days);
+  return d.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+}
+
+function runQueue(opts) {
+  const base = Number(opts.base !== undefined ? opts.base : 0.03);
+  const lift = Number(opts.lift !== undefined ? opts.lift : 0.2);
+  const daily = Number(opts.daily);
+  const days = Number(opts.days !== undefined ? opts.days : 90);
+  const power = Number(opts.power !== undefined ? opts.power : 0.8);
+  const alpha = Number(opts.alpha !== undefined ? opts.alpha : 0.05);
+  const start = String(opts.start !== undefined ? opts.start : "");
+  const problems = [];
+  if (!(base > 0) || !(base < 1)) { problems.push("base rate: a number between 0 and 1 (0.03 = 3%)"); }
+  if (!(lift > 0) || !(lift < 5)) { problems.push("lift worth detecting: a fraction, 0.2 = +20% relative"); }
+  if (!(daily > 0)) { problems.push("contacts a day: pass --daily 500"); }
+  if (!(days > 0)) { problems.push("horizon in days: pass --days 90"); }
+  if (!ZB[String(power)]) { problems.push("power must be 0.8 or 0.9"); }
+  if (!ZA[String(alpha)]) { problems.push("alpha must be 0.05, 0.01 or 0.1"); }
+  if (!/^\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}$/.test(start)) { problems.push("start date: pass --start 2026-09-21"); }
+  if (problems.length) { console.error("queue: " + problems.join("; ")); return 1; }
+
+  const per_arm = sampleSize(base, lift, power, alpha);
+  const total_contacts = per_arm * 2;
+  const days_per_test = Math.ceil(total_contacts / daily);
+  const tests_in_horizon = Math.floor(days / days_per_test);
+  const read_dates = [];
+  for (let i = 0; i < tests_in_horizon; i++) { read_dates.push(qAddDays(start, days_per_test * (i + 1))); }
+  const idle_days = days - tests_in_horizon * days_per_test;
+  const used_pct = Math.round((tests_in_horizon * days_per_test * 100) / days);
+  const gates = [
+    "one look only: the floor date is the look that alpha " + alpha + " priced in - reading the same test daily is not covered by it",
+    "split audiences: two live tests in one arm halve the contacts a day, so neither reaches its floor",
+    tests_in_horizon === 0
+      ? "capacity: one honest test does not fit in " + days + " days at " + daily + " contacts a day - plan the queue, not the ideas"
+      : "capacity: " + tests_in_horizon + " honest test" + (tests_in_horizon === 1 ? "" : "s") + " fit in " + days + " days, " + idle_days + " days outside a test"
+  ];
+  const out = {
+    base_rate: base, lift: lift, power: power, alpha: alpha, daily: daily, horizon_days: days, start: start,
+    floor_per_arm: per_arm, total_contacts: total_contacts, days_per_test: days_per_test,
+    tests_in_horizon: tests_in_horizon, read_dates: read_dates, idle_days: idle_days, used_pct: used_pct,
+    gates: gates
+  };
+  if (opts.json) { console.log(JSON.stringify(out, null, 2)); } else {
+    console.log("floor: " + fmtNum(per_arm) + " contacts per arm (" + fmtNum(total_contacts) + " in both arms) at a " + (base * 100).toFixed(2) + "% base rate, +" + (lift * 100).toFixed(0) + "% relative lift, power " + power + ", alpha " + alpha);
+    console.log("one honest test: " + days_per_test + " days at " + fmtNum(daily) + " contacts a day");
+    console.log("queue: " + tests_in_horizon + " test" + (tests_in_horizon === 1 ? "" : "s") + " in " + days + " days (" + used_pct + "% of the horizon inside a test, " + idle_days + " days outside one)");
+    if (read_dates.length) { console.log("read-out dates: " + read_dates.join(", ")); }
+    else { console.log("read-out date: does not fit in this horizon"); }
+    gates.forEach(function (g) { console.log("gate: " + g); });
+  }
+  return 0;
+}
+
 function fmtNum(n) {
   return String(n).replace(/\B(?=(\d{3})+(?!\d))/g, ",");
 }
@@ -568,6 +697,10 @@ if (cmd === "sample") {
       ? "keep running — below the required volume, a verdict now is noise"
       : "read it — volume is sufficient; kill if conversions are at or under the floor"
   }, null, 2));
+} else if (cmd === "verdict") {
+  process.exit(runVerdict(flags(rest)));
+} else if (cmd === "queue") {
+  process.exit(runQueue(flags(rest)));
 } else if (cmd === "aeo") {
   process.exit(runAeo(flags(rest)));
 } else if (cmd === "brief") {
@@ -610,6 +743,10 @@ Usage:
       --base 0.03 --lift 0.2 --cpl 4 [--daily 500]
   npx marketing-mindset plan            dated plan: weekly volume, gates, first honest read
       --base 0.03 --lift 0.2 --daily 500 [--weeks 4] [--start 2026-09-21]
+  npx marketing-mindset verdict         was the difference real, and was the volume ever enough?
+  npx marketing-mindset queue           how many honest tests your volume can finish, and when each reads
+      --daily 500 --days 90 --start 2026-09-21 [--base 0.03] [--lift 0.2] [--power 0.8] [--alpha 0.05]
+      --a 120/4000 --b 168/4000 [--alpha 0.05] [--json]
   npx marketing-mindset mde             what a volume you can afford can actually read
       --base 0.03 --per-arm 5000 [--power 0.8] [--alpha 0.05] [--json]
   npx marketing-mindset warmup          day-by-day sending ramp with stop rules

package/package.json

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 {
   "name": "marketing-mindset",
-  "version": "1.8.0",
-  "description": "A marketer's operating mindset as an installable agent skill and CLI: test-size floors, kill rules, the lift a volume can actually read, agent-readiness checklist, marketing-engineer job description. npx marketing-mindset sample|kill|mde|budget|brief|plan|warmup|aeo|jd|sections|read|install.",
+  "version": "1.10.0",
+  "description": "A marketer's operating mindset as an installable agent skill and CLI: test-size floors, kill rules, honest verdicts on finished tests, the lift a volume can read, a queue of readable tests with read-out dates, agent-readiness checklist, marketing-engineer job description. npx marketing-mindset sample|kill|verdict|queue|mde|budget|brief|plan|warmup|aeo|jd|sections|read|install.",
   "keywords": [
     "agent-skill",
     "skill",
@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@
     "llm",
     "prompt",
     "sample-size",
+    "test-queue",
+    "ab-test-verdict",
     "minimum-detectable-effect",
     "job-description",
     "cold-email",