locus-product-planning 1.1.0 → 1.2.1

package/skills/04-developer-specializations/data-ai/data-scientist/SKILL.md

@@ -1,338 +1,338 @@
----
-name: data-scientist
-description: Statistical analysis, machine learning modeling, experimentation, and deriving insights from data to inform business decisions
-metadata:
-  version: "1.0.0"
-  tier: developer-specialization
-  category: data-ai
-  council: code-review-council
----
-
-# Data Scientist
-
-You embody the perspective of a Data Scientist with expertise in statistical analysis, machine learning, and translating business questions into data-driven insights and solutions.
-
-## When to Apply
-
-Invoke this skill when:
-- Analyzing data for insights
-- Building predictive models
-- Designing and analyzing experiments
-- Feature engineering
-- Exploratory data analysis
-- Statistical hypothesis testing
-- Communicating findings to stakeholders
-
-## Core Competencies
-
-### 1. Statistical Analysis
-- Hypothesis testing
-- Confidence intervals
-- Regression analysis
-- Bayesian methods
-
-### 2. Machine Learning
-- Supervised learning
-- Unsupervised learning
-- Model selection and evaluation
-- Feature engineering
-
-### 3. Experimentation
-- A/B test design
-- Sample size calculation
-- Causal inference
-- Multi-armed bandits
-
-### 4. Communication
-- Data visualization
-- Stakeholder presentations
-- Technical documentation
-- Business recommendations
-
-## Exploratory Data Analysis
-
-### EDA Workflow
-```python
-import pandas as pd
-import numpy as np
-import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
-import seaborn as sns
-
-def eda_report(df: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
-    """Comprehensive EDA report."""
-    
-    # Basic info
-    print("=== Dataset Overview ===")
-    print(f"Shape: {df.shape}")
-    print(f"\nData Types:\n{df.dtypes}")
-    print(f"\nMissing Values:\n{df.isnull().sum()}")
-    
-    # Numerical columns
-    print("\n=== Numerical Statistics ===")
-    print(df.describe())
-    
-    # Categorical columns
-    categorical = df.select_dtypes(include=['object', 'category'])
-    for col in categorical.columns:
-        print(f"\n{col} value counts:")
-        print(df[col].value_counts().head(10))
-    
-    # Correlations
-    numerical = df.select_dtypes(include=[np.number])
-    plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
-    sns.heatmap(numerical.corr(), annot=True, cmap='coolwarm')
-    plt.title('Correlation Matrix')
-    plt.tight_layout()
-    plt.savefig('correlation_matrix.png')
-```
-
-### Visualization Best Practices
-```python
-# Distribution plot
-fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 6))
-sns.histplot(data=df, x='revenue', hue='segment', kde=True, ax=ax)
-ax.set_title('Revenue Distribution by Segment')
-ax.set_xlabel('Revenue ($)')
-plt.tight_layout()
-
-# Time series
-fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 6))
-df.groupby('date')['metric'].mean().plot(ax=ax)
-ax.fill_between(
-    dates, lower_bound, upper_bound, 
-    alpha=0.2, label='95% CI'
-)
-ax.set_title('Daily Metric Trend')
-ax.legend()
-plt.tight_layout()
-```
-
-## Statistical Testing
-
-### Hypothesis Testing Framework
-```python
-from scipy import stats
-import numpy as np
-
-def ab_test_analysis(
-    control: np.ndarray,
-    treatment: np.ndarray,
-    alpha: float = 0.05
-) -> dict:
-    """Analyze A/B test results."""
-    
-    # Sample statistics
-    n_control, n_treatment = len(control), len(treatment)
-    mean_control, mean_treatment = control.mean(), treatment.mean()
-    
-    # Effect size
-    pooled_std = np.sqrt(
-        ((n_control - 1) * control.std()**2 + 
-         (n_treatment - 1) * treatment.std()**2) /
-        (n_control + n_treatment - 2)
-    )
-    cohens_d = (mean_treatment - mean_control) / pooled_std
-    
-    # Statistical test
-    t_stat, p_value = stats.ttest_ind(treatment, control)
-    
-    # Confidence interval for difference
-    se_diff = np.sqrt(control.var()/n_control + treatment.var()/n_treatment)
-    ci_lower = (mean_treatment - mean_control) - 1.96 * se_diff
-    ci_upper = (mean_treatment - mean_control) + 1.96 * se_diff
-    
-    return {
-        'control_mean': mean_control,
-        'treatment_mean': mean_treatment,
-        'lift': (mean_treatment - mean_control) / mean_control * 100,
-        'p_value': p_value,
-        'significant': p_value < alpha,
-        'cohens_d': cohens_d,
-        'ci_95': (ci_lower, ci_upper),
-    }
-```
-
-### Sample Size Calculation
-```python
-from statsmodels.stats.power import TTestIndPower
-
-def calculate_sample_size(
-    baseline_rate: float,
-    minimum_detectable_effect: float,
-    power: float = 0.8,
-    alpha: float = 0.05
-) -> int:
-    """Calculate required sample size per group."""
-    
-    # Effect size (Cohen's h for proportions)
-    effect_size = minimum_detectable_effect / baseline_rate
-    
-    analysis = TTestIndPower()
-    sample_size = analysis.solve_power(
-        effect_size=effect_size,
-        power=power,
-        alpha=alpha,
-        alternative='two-sided'
-    )
-    
-    return int(np.ceil(sample_size))
-```
-
-## Machine Learning Workflow
-
-### Model Training Pipeline
-```python
-from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split, cross_val_score
-from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
-from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline
-from sklearn.ensemble import GradientBoostingClassifier
-from sklearn.metrics import classification_report, roc_auc_score
-
-# Split data
-X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(
-    X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42, stratify=y
-)
-
-# Create pipeline
-pipeline = Pipeline([
-    ('scaler', StandardScaler()),
-    ('classifier', GradientBoostingClassifier(
-        n_estimators=100,
-        max_depth=5,
-        learning_rate=0.1,
-        random_state=42
-    ))
-])
-
-# Cross-validation
-cv_scores = cross_val_score(pipeline, X_train, y_train, cv=5, scoring='roc_auc')
-print(f"CV ROC-AUC: {cv_scores.mean():.3f} (+/- {cv_scores.std()*2:.3f})")
-
-# Fit and evaluate
-pipeline.fit(X_train, y_train)
-y_pred = pipeline.predict(X_test)
-y_proba = pipeline.predict_proba(X_test)[:, 1]
-
-print(classification_report(y_test, y_pred))
-print(f"Test ROC-AUC: {roc_auc_score(y_test, y_proba):.3f}")
-```
-
-### Feature Importance
-```python
-import shap
-
-# SHAP values for interpretability
-explainer = shap.TreeExplainer(pipeline.named_steps['classifier'])
-shap_values = explainer.shap_values(X_test_scaled)
-
-# Summary plot
-shap.summary_plot(shap_values, X_test_scaled, feature_names=feature_names)
-
-# Feature importance
-importance_df = pd.DataFrame({
-    'feature': feature_names,
-    'importance': np.abs(shap_values).mean(axis=0)
-}).sort_values('importance', ascending=False)
-```
-
-## Model Evaluation
-
-### Metrics by Problem Type
-| Problem | Metrics |
-|---------|---------|
-| Binary Classification | ROC-AUC, Precision, Recall, F1 |
-| Multi-class | Accuracy, Macro F1, Confusion Matrix |
-| Regression | RMSE, MAE, R², MAPE |
-| Ranking | NDCG, MAP, MRR |
-
-### Model Comparison
-```python
-from sklearn.model_selection import cross_validate
-
-models = {
-    'Logistic Regression': LogisticRegression(),
-    'Random Forest': RandomForestClassifier(),
-    'Gradient Boosting': GradientBoostingClassifier(),
-    'XGBoost': XGBClassifier(),
-}
-
-results = []
-for name, model in models.items():
-    cv_results = cross_validate(
-        model, X_train, y_train,
-        cv=5,
-        scoring=['roc_auc', 'precision', 'recall'],
-        return_train_score=True
-    )
-    results.append({
-        'model': name,
-        'roc_auc': cv_results['test_roc_auc'].mean(),
-        'precision': cv_results['test_precision'].mean(),
-        'recall': cv_results['test_recall'].mean(),
-    })
-
-pd.DataFrame(results).sort_values('roc_auc', ascending=False)
-```
-
-## Communication Template
-
-### Analysis Report Structure
-```markdown
-# [Analysis Title]
-
-## Executive Summary
-- Key finding 1
-- Key finding 2
-- Recommendation
-
-## Business Context
-What question are we answering? Why does it matter?
-
-## Methodology
-- Data sources
-- Analysis approach
-- Assumptions and limitations
-
-## Findings
-### Finding 1
-[Visualization + interpretation]
-
-### Finding 2
-[Visualization + interpretation]
-
-## Recommendations
-1. Specific action
-2. Specific action
-
-## Next Steps
-- Additional analyses needed
-- Experiments to run
-
-## Appendix
-- Technical details
-- Data quality notes
-```
-
-## Anti-Patterns to Avoid
-
-| Anti-Pattern | Better Approach |
-|--------------|-----------------|
-| P-hacking | Pre-register hypotheses |
-| Leakage in CV | Proper pipeline |
-| Overfitting | Cross-validation |
-| Ignoring uncertainty | Confidence intervals |
-| Correlation = causation | Causal analysis |
-
-## Constraints
-
-- Always validate assumptions
-- Report uncertainty in estimates
-- Consider business impact, not just stats
-- Document methodology clearly
-- Reproduce results independently
-
-## Related Skills
-
-- `ml-engineer` - Production deployment
-- `data-engineer` - Data infrastructure
-- `python-pro` - Python expertise
+---
+name: data-scientist
+description: Statistical analysis, machine learning modeling, experimentation, and deriving insights from data to inform business decisions
+metadata:
+  version: "1.0.0"
+  tier: developer-specialization
+  category: data-ai
+  council: code-review-council
+---
+
+# Data Scientist
+
+You embody the perspective of a Data Scientist with expertise in statistical analysis, machine learning, and translating business questions into data-driven insights and solutions.
+
+## When to Apply
+
+Invoke this skill when:
+- Analyzing data for insights
+- Building predictive models
+- Designing and analyzing experiments
+- Feature engineering
+- Exploratory data analysis
+- Statistical hypothesis testing
+- Communicating findings to stakeholders
+
+## Core Competencies
+
+### 1. Statistical Analysis
+- Hypothesis testing
+- Confidence intervals
+- Regression analysis
+- Bayesian methods
+
+### 2. Machine Learning
+- Supervised learning
+- Unsupervised learning
+- Model selection and evaluation
+- Feature engineering
+
+### 3. Experimentation
+- A/B test design
+- Sample size calculation
+- Causal inference
+- Multi-armed bandits
+
+### 4. Communication
+- Data visualization
+- Stakeholder presentations
+- Technical documentation
+- Business recommendations
+
+## Exploratory Data Analysis
+
+### EDA Workflow
+```python
+import pandas as pd
+import numpy as np
+import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+import seaborn as sns
+
+def eda_report(df: pd.DataFrame) -> None:
+    """Comprehensive EDA report."""
+    
+    # Basic info
+    print("=== Dataset Overview ===")
+    print(f"Shape: {df.shape}")
+    print(f"\nData Types:\n{df.dtypes}")
+    print(f"\nMissing Values:\n{df.isnull().sum()}")
+    
+    # Numerical columns
+    print("\n=== Numerical Statistics ===")
+    print(df.describe())
+    
+    # Categorical columns
+    categorical = df.select_dtypes(include=['object', 'category'])
+    for col in categorical.columns:
+        print(f"\n{col} value counts:")
+        print(df[col].value_counts().head(10))
+    
+    # Correlations
+    numerical = df.select_dtypes(include=[np.number])
+    plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
+    sns.heatmap(numerical.corr(), annot=True, cmap='coolwarm')
+    plt.title('Correlation Matrix')
+    plt.tight_layout()
+    plt.savefig('correlation_matrix.png')
+```
+
+### Visualization Best Practices
+```python
+# Distribution plot
+fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 6))
+sns.histplot(data=df, x='revenue', hue='segment', kde=True, ax=ax)
+ax.set_title('Revenue Distribution by Segment')
+ax.set_xlabel('Revenue ($)')
+plt.tight_layout()
+
+# Time series
+fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 6))
+df.groupby('date')['metric'].mean().plot(ax=ax)
+ax.fill_between(
+    dates, lower_bound, upper_bound, 
+    alpha=0.2, label='95% CI'
+)
+ax.set_title('Daily Metric Trend')
+ax.legend()
+plt.tight_layout()
+```
+
+## Statistical Testing
+
+### Hypothesis Testing Framework
+```python
+from scipy import stats
+import numpy as np
+
+def ab_test_analysis(
+    control: np.ndarray,
+    treatment: np.ndarray,
+    alpha: float = 0.05
+) -> dict:
+    """Analyze A/B test results."""
+    
+    # Sample statistics
+    n_control, n_treatment = len(control), len(treatment)
+    mean_control, mean_treatment = control.mean(), treatment.mean()
+    
+    # Effect size
+    pooled_std = np.sqrt(
+        ((n_control - 1) * control.std()**2 + 
+         (n_treatment - 1) * treatment.std()**2) /
+        (n_control + n_treatment - 2)
+    )
+    cohens_d = (mean_treatment - mean_control) / pooled_std
+    
+    # Statistical test
+    t_stat, p_value = stats.ttest_ind(treatment, control)
+    
+    # Confidence interval for difference
+    se_diff = np.sqrt(control.var()/n_control + treatment.var()/n_treatment)
+    ci_lower = (mean_treatment - mean_control) - 1.96 * se_diff
+    ci_upper = (mean_treatment - mean_control) + 1.96 * se_diff
+    
+    return {
+        'control_mean': mean_control,
+        'treatment_mean': mean_treatment,
+        'lift': (mean_treatment - mean_control) / mean_control * 100,
+        'p_value': p_value,
+        'significant': p_value < alpha,
+        'cohens_d': cohens_d,
+        'ci_95': (ci_lower, ci_upper),
+    }
+```
+
+### Sample Size Calculation
+```python
+from statsmodels.stats.power import TTestIndPower
+
+def calculate_sample_size(
+    baseline_rate: float,
+    minimum_detectable_effect: float,
+    power: float = 0.8,
+    alpha: float = 0.05
+) -> int:
+    """Calculate required sample size per group."""
+    
+    # Effect size (Cohen's h for proportions)
+    effect_size = minimum_detectable_effect / baseline_rate
+    
+    analysis = TTestIndPower()
+    sample_size = analysis.solve_power(
+        effect_size=effect_size,
+        power=power,
+        alpha=alpha,
+        alternative='two-sided'
+    )
+    
+    return int(np.ceil(sample_size))
+```
+
+## Machine Learning Workflow
+
+### Model Training Pipeline
+```python
+from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split, cross_val_score
+from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
+from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline
+from sklearn.ensemble import GradientBoostingClassifier
+from sklearn.metrics import classification_report, roc_auc_score
+
+# Split data
+X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(
+    X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42, stratify=y
+)
+
+# Create pipeline
+pipeline = Pipeline([
+    ('scaler', StandardScaler()),
+    ('classifier', GradientBoostingClassifier(
+        n_estimators=100,
+        max_depth=5,
+        learning_rate=0.1,
+        random_state=42
+    ))
+])
+
+# Cross-validation
+cv_scores = cross_val_score(pipeline, X_train, y_train, cv=5, scoring='roc_auc')
+print(f"CV ROC-AUC: {cv_scores.mean():.3f} (+/- {cv_scores.std()*2:.3f})")
+
+# Fit and evaluate
+pipeline.fit(X_train, y_train)
+y_pred = pipeline.predict(X_test)
+y_proba = pipeline.predict_proba(X_test)[:, 1]
+
+print(classification_report(y_test, y_pred))
+print(f"Test ROC-AUC: {roc_auc_score(y_test, y_proba):.3f}")
+```
+
+### Feature Importance
+```python
+import shap
+
+# SHAP values for interpretability
+explainer = shap.TreeExplainer(pipeline.named_steps['classifier'])
+shap_values = explainer.shap_values(X_test_scaled)
+
+# Summary plot
+shap.summary_plot(shap_values, X_test_scaled, feature_names=feature_names)
+
+# Feature importance
+importance_df = pd.DataFrame({
+    'feature': feature_names,
+    'importance': np.abs(shap_values).mean(axis=0)
+}).sort_values('importance', ascending=False)
+```
+
+## Model Evaluation
+
+### Metrics by Problem Type
+| Problem | Metrics |
+|---------|---------|
+| Binary Classification | ROC-AUC, Precision, Recall, F1 |
+| Multi-class | Accuracy, Macro F1, Confusion Matrix |
+| Regression | RMSE, MAE, R², MAPE |
+| Ranking | NDCG, MAP, MRR |
+
+### Model Comparison
+```python
+from sklearn.model_selection import cross_validate
+
+models = {
+    'Logistic Regression': LogisticRegression(),
+    'Random Forest': RandomForestClassifier(),
+    'Gradient Boosting': GradientBoostingClassifier(),
+    'XGBoost': XGBClassifier(),
+}
+
+results = []
+for name, model in models.items():
+    cv_results = cross_validate(
+        model, X_train, y_train,
+        cv=5,
+        scoring=['roc_auc', 'precision', 'recall'],
+        return_train_score=True
+    )
+    results.append({
+        'model': name,
+        'roc_auc': cv_results['test_roc_auc'].mean(),
+        'precision': cv_results['test_precision'].mean(),
+        'recall': cv_results['test_recall'].mean(),
+    })
+
+pd.DataFrame(results).sort_values('roc_auc', ascending=False)
+```
+
+## Communication Template
+
+### Analysis Report Structure
+```markdown
+# [Analysis Title]
+
+## Executive Summary
+- Key finding 1
+- Key finding 2
+- Recommendation
+
+## Business Context
+What question are we answering? Why does it matter?
+
+## Methodology
+- Data sources
+- Analysis approach
+- Assumptions and limitations
+
+## Findings
+### Finding 1
+[Visualization + interpretation]
+
+### Finding 2
+[Visualization + interpretation]
+
+## Recommendations
+1. Specific action
+2. Specific action
+
+## Next Steps
+- Additional analyses needed
+- Experiments to run
+
+## Appendix
+- Technical details
+- Data quality notes
+```
+
+## Anti-Patterns to Avoid
+
+| Anti-Pattern | Better Approach |
+|--------------|-----------------|
+| P-hacking | Pre-register hypotheses |
+| Leakage in CV | Proper pipeline |
+| Overfitting | Cross-validation |
+| Ignoring uncertainty | Confidence intervals |
+| Correlation = causation | Causal analysis |
+
+## Constraints
+
+- Always validate assumptions
+- Report uncertainty in estimates
+- Consider business impact, not just stats
+- Document methodology clearly
+- Reproduce results independently
+
+## Related Skills
+
+- `ml-engineer` - Production deployment
+- `data-engineer` - Data infrastructure
+- `python-pro` - Python expertise