learngraph 0.5.0 → 0.7.0

package/dist/esm/assessment/irt.js

@@ -0,0 +1,406 @@
+/**
+ * Item Response Theory (IRT)
+ *
+ * Implements the 1PL (Rasch), 2PL, and 3PL IRT models for:
+ * - Calculating probability of correct response
+ * - Estimating learner ability (theta)
+ * - Calculating item information
+ * - Adaptive item selection
+ *
+ * @see Lord, F.M. (1980). Applications of item response theory to practical testing problems.
+ *
+ * @packageDocumentation
+ */
+/**
+ * Default IRT configuration
+ */
+export const IRT_CONFIG_DEFAULTS = {
+    model: '2PL',
+    abilityPrior: { mean: 0, sd: 1 },
+    maxIterations: 100,
+    convergenceThreshold: 0.001,
+};
+/**
+ * Calculate probability of correct response using IRT model
+ *
+ * 1PL (Rasch): P(θ) = 1 / (1 + exp(-(θ - b)))
+ * 2PL: P(θ) = 1 / (1 + exp(-a(θ - b)))
+ * 3PL: P(θ) = c + (1 - c) / (1 + exp(-a(θ - b)))
+ *
+ * @param theta - Ability parameter
+ * @param params - Item parameters
+ * @returns Probability of correct response (0-1)
+ */
+export function calculateProbability(theta, params) {
+    const { difficulty: b, model } = params;
+    const a = params.discrimination ?? 1.0;
+    const c = params.guessing ?? 0.0;
+    // Logistic function
+    const z = a * (theta - b);
+    const pStar = 1 / (1 + Math.exp(-z));
+    switch (model) {
+        case '1PL':
+            return 1 / (1 + Math.exp(-(theta - b)));
+        case '2PL':
+            return pStar;
+        case '3PL':
+            return c + (1 - c) * pStar;
+        default:
+            return pStar;
+    }
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate the first derivative of P with respect to theta
+ * Used in ability estimation
+ */
+export function calculateProbabilityDerivative(theta, params) {
+    const { difficulty: b, model } = params;
+    const a = params.discrimination ?? 1.0;
+    const c = params.guessing ?? 0.0;
+    const z = a * (theta - b);
+    const expNegZ = Math.exp(-z);
+    const pStar = 1 / (1 + expNegZ);
+    switch (model) {
+        case '1PL':
+            return pStar * (1 - pStar);
+        case '2PL':
+            return a * pStar * (1 - pStar);
+        case '3PL':
+            return a * (1 - c) * pStar * (1 - pStar);
+        default:
+            return a * pStar * (1 - pStar);
+    }
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate Fisher Information for an item at a given ability
+ *
+ * Information represents how precisely the item measures ability at theta.
+ * Higher information = more useful for measuring that ability level.
+ *
+ * I(θ) = [P'(θ)]² / [P(θ)(1-P(θ))]
+ */
+export function calculateInformation(theta, params) {
+    const p = calculateProbability(theta, params);
+    const pPrime = calculateProbabilityDerivative(theta, params);
+    // Avoid division by zero
+    const denominator = p * (1 - p);
+    if (denominator < 1e-10) {
+        return 0;
+    }
+    return (pPrime * pPrime) / denominator;
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate test information (sum of item information)
+ */
+export function calculateTestInformation(theta, items) {
+    return items.reduce((sum, item) => sum + calculateInformation(theta, item), 0);
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate standard error of ability estimate
+ * SE(θ) = 1 / √I(θ)
+ */
+export function calculateStandardError(theta, items) {
+    const information = calculateTestInformation(theta, items);
+    if (information < 1e-10) {
+        return 10; // Large SE when no information
+    }
+    return 1 / Math.sqrt(information);
+}
+/**
+ * IRT Ability Estimator
+ *
+ * Estimates learner ability (theta) from response patterns using
+ * Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) or Expected A Posteriori (EAP).
+ */
+export class IRTEstimator {
+    config;
+    constructor(config = {}) {
+        this.config = { ...IRT_CONFIG_DEFAULTS, ...config };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Estimate ability using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE)
+     *
+     * Uses Newton-Raphson iteration to find the theta that maximizes
+     * the likelihood of the observed response pattern.
+     */
+    estimateMLE(responses) {
+        if (responses.length === 0) {
+            return this.defaultEstimate();
+        }
+        // Check for extreme patterns
+        const allCorrect = responses.every((r) => r.correct);
+        const allIncorrect = responses.every((r) => !r.correct);
+        if (allCorrect) {
+            return this.extremeEstimate(responses, 3);
+        }
+        if (allIncorrect) {
+            return this.extremeEstimate(responses, -3);
+        }
+        // Newton-Raphson iteration
+        let theta = 0; // Start at mean
+        let iteration = 0;
+        while (iteration < this.config.maxIterations) {
+            const { firstDerivative, secondDerivative } = this.calculateDerivatives(theta, responses);
+            // Newton-Raphson update
+            if (Math.abs(secondDerivative) < 1e-10) {
+                break;
+            }
+            const delta = firstDerivative / secondDerivative;
+            theta = theta - delta;
+            // Bound theta to reasonable range
+            theta = Math.max(-4, Math.min(4, theta));
+            // Check convergence
+            if (Math.abs(delta) < this.config.convergenceThreshold) {
+                break;
+            }
+            iteration++;
+        }
+        return this.buildEstimate(theta, responses, 'MLE');
+    }
+    /**
+     * Estimate ability using Expected A Posteriori (EAP)
+     *
+     * Uses numerical integration with a prior distribution.
+     * More stable than MLE, especially with few responses.
+     */
+    estimateEAP(responses) {
+        if (responses.length === 0) {
+            return this.defaultEstimate();
+        }
+        // Quadrature points
+        const numPoints = 49;
+        const range = 4;
+        const points = Array.from({ length: numPoints }, (_, i) => -range + (2 * range * i) / (numPoints - 1));
+        // Calculate posterior at each point
+        let numerator = 0;
+        let denominator = 0;
+        let variance = 0;
+        for (const theta of points) {
+            const prior = this.normalPDF(theta, this.config.abilityPrior.mean, this.config.abilityPrior.sd);
+            const likelihood = this.calculateLikelihood(theta, responses);
+            const posterior = prior * likelihood;
+            numerator += theta * posterior;
+            denominator += posterior;
+        }
+        if (denominator < 1e-10) {
+            return this.defaultEstimate();
+        }
+        const thetaEAP = numerator / denominator;
+        // Calculate variance for SE
+        for (const theta of points) {
+            const prior = this.normalPDF(theta, this.config.abilityPrior.mean, this.config.abilityPrior.sd);
+            const likelihood = this.calculateLikelihood(theta, responses);
+            const posterior = prior * likelihood;
+            variance += (theta - thetaEAP) ** 2 * posterior;
+        }
+        const se = Math.sqrt(variance / denominator);
+        return {
+            theta: thetaEAP,
+            standardError: se,
+            itemCount: responses.length,
+            method: 'EAP',
+            confidenceInterval: {
+                lower: thetaEAP - 1.96 * se,
+                upper: thetaEAP + 1.96 * se,
+            },
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Estimate ability using Maximum A Posteriori (MAP)
+     *
+     * Like MLE but includes prior distribution.
+     */
+    estimateMAP(responses) {
+        if (responses.length === 0) {
+            return this.defaultEstimate();
+        }
+        // Newton-Raphson with prior
+        let theta = this.config.abilityPrior.mean;
+        let iteration = 0;
+        while (iteration < this.config.maxIterations) {
+            const { firstDerivative, secondDerivative } = this.calculateDerivatives(theta, responses);
+            // Add prior contribution
+            const priorMean = this.config.abilityPrior.mean;
+            const priorVar = this.config.abilityPrior.sd ** 2;
+            const priorFirstDeriv = -(theta - priorMean) / priorVar;
+            const priorSecondDeriv = -1 / priorVar;
+            const totalFirst = firstDerivative + priorFirstDeriv;
+            const totalSecond = secondDerivative + priorSecondDeriv;
+            if (Math.abs(totalSecond) < 1e-10) {
+                break;
+            }
+            const delta = totalFirst / totalSecond;
+            theta = theta - delta;
+            // Bound theta
+            theta = Math.max(-4, Math.min(4, theta));
+            if (Math.abs(delta) < this.config.convergenceThreshold) {
+                break;
+            }
+            iteration++;
+        }
+        return this.buildEstimate(theta, responses, 'MAP');
+    }
+    /**
+     * Auto-select best estimation method based on response count
+     */
+    estimate(responses) {
+        if (responses.length < 5) {
+            return this.estimateEAP(responses); // EAP is more stable with few items
+        }
+        return this.estimateMLE(responses);
+    }
+    /**
+     * Calculate log-likelihood derivatives for Newton-Raphson
+     */
+    calculateDerivatives(theta, responses) {
+        let first = 0;
+        let second = 0;
+        for (const response of responses) {
+            const p = calculateProbability(theta, response.params);
+            const pPrime = calculateProbabilityDerivative(theta, response.params);
+            const q = 1 - p;
+            const u = response.correct ? 1 : 0;
+            // Avoid division by zero
+            if (p < 1e-10 || q < 1e-10)
+                continue;
+            // First derivative: Σ (u - P) × P' / (P × Q)
+            first += ((u - p) * pPrime) / (p * q);
+            // Second derivative (negative Hessian)
+            second -= (pPrime * pPrime) / (p * q);
+        }
+        return { firstDerivative: first, secondDerivative: second };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Calculate likelihood of response pattern
+     */
+    calculateLikelihood(theta, responses) {
+        let logLikelihood = 0;
+        for (const response of responses) {
+            const p = calculateProbability(theta, response.params);
+            logLikelihood += response.correct ? Math.log(p) : Math.log(1 - p);
+        }
+        return Math.exp(logLikelihood);
+    }
+    /**
+     * Normal PDF for prior
+     */
+    normalPDF(x, mean, sd) {
+        const z = (x - mean) / sd;
+        return Math.exp(-0.5 * z * z) / (sd * Math.sqrt(2 * Math.PI));
+    }
+    /**
+     * Build ability estimate result
+     */
+    buildEstimate(theta, responses, method) {
+        const items = responses.map((r) => r.params);
+        const se = calculateStandardError(theta, items);
+        return {
+            theta,
+            standardError: se,
+            itemCount: responses.length,
+            method,
+            confidenceInterval: {
+                lower: theta - 1.96 * se,
+                upper: theta + 1.96 * se,
+            },
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Default estimate when no responses
+     */
+    defaultEstimate() {
+        return {
+            theta: this.config.abilityPrior.mean,
+            standardError: this.config.abilityPrior.sd,
+            itemCount: 0,
+            method: 'EAP',
+            confidenceInterval: {
+                lower: this.config.abilityPrior.mean - 1.96 * this.config.abilityPrior.sd,
+                upper: this.config.abilityPrior.mean + 1.96 * this.config.abilityPrior.sd,
+            },
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Handle extreme response patterns
+     */
+    extremeEstimate(responses, theta) {
+        const items = responses.map((r) => r.params);
+        // Large SE for extreme patterns
+        const se = Math.max(calculateStandardError(theta, items), 1.5);
+        return {
+            theta,
+            standardError: se,
+            itemCount: responses.length,
+            method: 'MLE',
+            confidenceInterval: {
+                lower: theta - 1.96 * se,
+                upper: theta + 1.96 * se,
+            },
+        };
+    }
+}
+/**
+ * Select next item for adaptive testing using Maximum Fisher Information
+ *
+ * Selects the item that provides the most information at the current ability estimate.
+ */
+export function selectNextItemMFI(currentTheta, availableItems, administeredIds) {
+    let bestItem = null;
+    let maxInfo = -Infinity;
+    for (const item of availableItems) {
+        if (administeredIds.has(item.id))
+            continue;
+        const info = calculateInformation(currentTheta, item.params);
+        if (info > maxInfo) {
+            maxInfo = info;
+            bestItem = item;
+        }
+    }
+    if (!bestItem)
+        return null;
+    return { ...bestItem, information: maxInfo };
+}
+/**
+ * Convert ability (theta) to percentile
+ *
+ * Assumes standard normal distribution of ability.
+ */
+export function abilityToPercentile(theta) {
+    // Standard normal CDF approximation
+    const t = 1 / (1 + 0.2316419 * Math.abs(theta));
+    const d = 0.3989423 * Math.exp((-theta * theta) / 2);
+    const p = d *
+        t *
+        (0.3193815 +
+            t * (-0.3565638 + t * (1.781478 + t * (-1.821256 + t * 1.330274))));
+    return theta >= 0 ? (1 - p) * 100 : p * 100;
+}
+/**
+ * Convert ability to grade-level equivalent (rough approximation)
+ *
+ * Maps theta to approximate grade level (K-12 scale).
+ */
+export function abilityToGradeLevel(theta) {
+    // Map -3 to +3 roughly to K-12
+    // 0 = 6th grade, -3 = K, +3 = 12+
+    return Math.max(0, Math.min(12, 6 + theta * 2));
+}
+/**
+ * Create an IRT estimator
+ */
+export function createIRTEstimator(config) {
+    return new IRTEstimator(config);
+}
+/**
+ * Quick ability estimation using EAP
+ */
+export function estimateAbility(responses, config) {
+    const estimator = new IRTEstimator(config);
+    const irtResponses = responses.map((r, i) => ({
+        questionId: `q-${i}`,
+        params: r.params,
+        correct: r.correct,
+    }));
+    return estimator.estimateEAP(irtResponses).theta;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=irt.js.map

package/dist/esm/assessment/irt.js.map

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