learngraph 0.4.0 → 0.7.0

package/dist/esm/assessment/bkt.js

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+/**
+ * Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT)
+ *
+ * Implements the classic BKT model for tracking learner mastery.
+ * BKT is a hidden Markov model with two hidden states (mastery/no mastery)
+ * and uses four parameters:
+ * - P(L₀): Prior probability of mastery (pInit)
+ * - P(T): Probability of learning/transition (pLearn)
+ * - P(S): Probability of slip (wrong despite mastery) (pSlip)
+ * - P(G): Probability of guess (correct despite no mastery) (pGuess)
+ *
+ * @see Corbett & Anderson (1994). Knowledge tracing: Modeling the acquisition
+ *      of procedural knowledge. User Modeling and User-Adapted Interaction.
+ *
+ * @packageDocumentation
+ */
+import { BKT_DEFAULTS } from '../types/assessment.js';
+/**
+ * Default BKT configuration
+ */
+export const BKT_CONFIG_DEFAULTS = {
+    masteryThreshold: 0.95,
+    individualizedParams: false,
+    trackHistory: false,
+};
+/**
+ * Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Engine
+ *
+ * Tracks learner mastery using the classic BKT model.
+ * Can be used with skill-level or global parameters.
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const bkt = new BKTEngine();
+ *
+ * // Initialize state for a skill
+ * let state = bkt.initializeState('skill-1');
+ *
+ * // Update after correct response
+ * state = bkt.update(state, true).state;
+ * console.log(`Mastery: ${state.pMastery.toFixed(2)}`);
+ *
+ * // Update after incorrect response
+ * state = bkt.update(state, false).state;
+ * ```
+ */
+export class BKTEngine {
+    config;
+    skillParams;
+    globalParams;
+    constructor(config = {}, globalParams = BKT_DEFAULTS) {
+        this.config = { ...BKT_CONFIG_DEFAULTS, ...config };
+        this.globalParams = globalParams;
+        this.skillParams = new Map();
+    }
+    /**
+     * Set parameters for a specific skill
+     */
+    setSkillParameters(skillId, params) {
+        this.skillParams.set(skillId, params);
+    }
+    /**
+     * Get parameters for a skill (falls back to global)
+     */
+    getParameters(skillId) {
+        if (skillId && this.config.individualizedParams) {
+            return this.skillParams.get(skillId) ?? this.globalParams;
+        }
+        return this.globalParams;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Initialize BKT state for a skill
+     */
+    initializeState(skillId) {
+        const params = this.getParameters(skillId);
+        const baseState = {
+            skillId,
+            pMastery: params.pInit,
+            observations: 0,
+        };
+        if (this.config.trackHistory) {
+            baseState.history = [];
+        }
+        return baseState;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Update BKT state based on an observed response
+     *
+     * Uses Bayes' theorem to update the mastery probability:
+     * - For correct response: P(Lₙ|correct) ∝ P(correct|Lₙ) × P(Lₙ)
+     * - For incorrect response: P(Lₙ|incorrect) ∝ P(incorrect|Lₙ) × P(Lₙ)
+     *
+     * Then applies the learning transition.
+     *
+     * @param state - Current BKT state
+     * @param correct - Whether the response was correct
+     * @param skillId - Optional skill ID for skill-specific parameters
+     * @returns Updated state and result information
+     */
+    update(state, correct, skillId) {
+        const params = this.getParameters(skillId ?? state.skillId);
+        const previousMastery = state.pMastery;
+        // Calculate likelihood of observation given each hidden state
+        // P(correct | mastered) = 1 - P(slip)
+        // P(correct | not mastered) = P(guess)
+        const pCorrectGivenMastery = 1 - params.pSlip;
+        const pCorrectGivenNoMastery = params.pGuess;
+        // Calculate posterior probability of mastery given observation
+        let pMasteryGivenObs;
+        let likelihood;
+        if (correct) {
+            // P(L|correct) = P(correct|L) × P(L) / P(correct)
+            const pCorrect = pCorrectGivenMastery * state.pMastery +
+                pCorrectGivenNoMastery * (1 - state.pMastery);
+            pMasteryGivenObs = (pCorrectGivenMastery * state.pMastery) / pCorrect;
+            likelihood = pCorrect;
+        }
+        else {
+            // P(L|incorrect) = P(incorrect|L) × P(L) / P(incorrect)
+            const pIncorrect = params.pSlip * state.pMastery +
+                (1 - params.pGuess) * (1 - state.pMastery);
+            pMasteryGivenObs = (params.pSlip * state.pMastery) / pIncorrect;
+            likelihood = pIncorrect;
+        }
+        // Apply learning transition: P(Lₙ₊₁) = P(Lₙ|obs) + P(T) × (1 - P(Lₙ|obs))
+        // This accounts for the possibility of learning during the opportunity
+        const pMastery = pMasteryGivenObs + params.pLearn * (1 - pMasteryGivenObs);
+        // Build updated state
+        const newState = {
+            skillId: state.skillId,
+            pMastery,
+            observations: state.observations + 1,
+        };
+        if (this.config.trackHistory) {
+            newState.history = [...(state.history ?? []), correct];
+        }
+        const result = {
+            pMastery,
+            isMastered: pMastery >= this.config.masteryThreshold,
+            likelihood,
+            previousMastery,
+        };
+        return { state: newState, result };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Update from multiple responses
+     */
+    updateBatch(state, responses, skillId) {
+        let currentState = state;
+        const results = [];
+        for (const correct of responses) {
+            const { state: newState, result } = this.update(currentState, correct, skillId);
+            currentState = newState;
+            results.push(result);
+        }
+        return { state: currentState, results };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Predict the probability of a correct response
+     */
+    predict(state, skillId) {
+        const params = this.getParameters(skillId ?? state.skillId);
+        // P(correct) = P(correct|mastered) × P(mastered) + P(correct|not mastered) × P(not mastered)
+        const pCorrect = (1 - params.pSlip) * state.pMastery +
+            params.pGuess * (1 - state.pMastery);
+        // What would mastery be after correct/incorrect?
+        const { state: stateIfCorrect } = this.update({ ...state }, true, skillId);
+        const { state: stateIfIncorrect } = this.update({ ...state }, false, skillId);
+        return {
+            pCorrect,
+            masteryIfCorrect: stateIfCorrect.pMastery,
+            masteryIfIncorrect: stateIfIncorrect.pMastery,
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Estimate number of opportunities until mastery
+     *
+     * Uses a forward simulation assuming consistent correct responses.
+     */
+    estimateOpportunitiesToMastery(state, skillId, maxOpportunities = 100) {
+        if (state.pMastery >= this.config.masteryThreshold) {
+            return 0;
+        }
+        let currentState = { ...state };
+        for (let i = 1; i <= maxOpportunities; i++) {
+            // Simulate correct response
+            const { state: newState } = this.update(currentState, true, skillId);
+            if (newState.pMastery >= this.config.masteryThreshold) {
+                return i;
+            }
+            currentState = newState;
+        }
+        return null; // Mastery not achievable within max opportunities
+    }
+    /**
+     * Check if mastery threshold is met
+     */
+    isMastered(state) {
+        return state.pMastery >= this.config.masteryThreshold;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Convert BKT state to MasteryState for integration with other systems
+     */
+    toMasteryState(state) {
+        return {
+            skillId: state.skillId,
+            mastery: state.pMastery,
+            attempts: state.observations,
+            streak: this.calculateStreak(state),
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Calculate current streak from history
+     */
+    calculateStreak(state) {
+        if (!state.history || state.history.length === 0) {
+            return 0;
+        }
+        let streak = 0;
+        for (let i = state.history.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
+            if (state.history[i]) {
+                streak++;
+            }
+            else {
+                break;
+            }
+        }
+        return streak;
+    }
+}
+/**
+ * Fit BKT parameters to response data
+ *
+ * @param sequences - Array of response sequences (true = correct)
+ * @param gridSize - Number of values to try for each parameter
+ * @returns Best fitting parameters
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * const sequences = [
+ *   [false, false, true, true, true],
+ *   [true, false, true, true, true],
+ *   [false, true, true, true, true],
+ * ];
+ *
+ * const result = fitBKTParameters(sequences);
+ * console.log('Best parameters:', result.params);
+ * ```
+ */
+export function fitBKTParameters(sequences, gridSize = 10) {
+    // Generate grid values
+    const values = Array.from({ length: gridSize }, (_, i) => (i + 1) / (gridSize + 1));
+    // Constraints on parameters
+    const pInitValues = values.filter((v) => v >= 0.1 && v <= 0.9);
+    const pLearnValues = values.filter((v) => v >= 0.01 && v <= 0.5);
+    const pSlipValues = values.filter((v) => v >= 0.01 && v <= 0.3);
+    const pGuessValues = values.filter((v) => v >= 0.01 && v <= 0.4);
+    let bestParams = BKT_DEFAULTS;
+    let bestLogLikelihood = -Infinity;
+    let evaluations = 0;
+    // Grid search
+    for (const pInit of pInitValues) {
+        for (const pLearn of pLearnValues) {
+            for (const pSlip of pSlipValues) {
+                for (const pGuess of pGuessValues) {
+                    // Skip invalid combinations (guess + slip should be < 1 for identifiability)
+                    if (pSlip + pGuess >= 1)
+                        continue;
+                    const params = { pInit, pLearn, pSlip, pGuess };
+                    const logLikelihood = calculateLogLikelihood(sequences, params);
+                    evaluations++;
+                    if (logLikelihood > bestLogLikelihood) {
+                        bestLogLikelihood = logLikelihood;
+                        bestParams = params;
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    return {
+        params: bestParams,
+        logLikelihood: bestLogLikelihood,
+        evaluations,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Calculate log-likelihood of response sequences given BKT parameters
+ */
+export function calculateLogLikelihood(sequences, params) {
+    let totalLogLikelihood = 0;
+    for (const sequence of sequences) {
+        let pMastery = params.pInit;
+        for (const correct of sequence) {
+            // P(correct | state)
+            const pCorrectGivenMastery = 1 - params.pSlip;
+            const pCorrectGivenNoMastery = params.pGuess;
+            // P(observation)
+            const pObs = correct
+                ? pCorrectGivenMastery * pMastery + pCorrectGivenNoMastery * (1 - pMastery)
+                : params.pSlip * pMastery + (1 - params.pGuess) * (1 - pMastery);
+            // Avoid log(0)
+            totalLogLikelihood += Math.log(Math.max(pObs, 1e-10));
+            // Update mastery
+            if (correct) {
+                const pCorrect = pCorrectGivenMastery * pMastery +
+                    pCorrectGivenNoMastery * (1 - pMastery);
+                pMastery = (pCorrectGivenMastery * pMastery) / pCorrect;
+            }
+            else {
+                const pIncorrect = params.pSlip * pMastery + (1 - params.pGuess) * (1 - pMastery);
+                pMastery = (params.pSlip * pMastery) / pIncorrect;
+            }
+            // Learning transition
+            pMastery = pMastery + params.pLearn * (1 - pMastery);
+        }
+    }
+    return totalLogLikelihood;
+}
+/**
+ * Create a BKT engine with default configuration
+ */
+export function createBKTEngine(config, params) {
+    return new BKTEngine(config, params);
+}
+/**
+ * Quick mastery estimation using BKT
+ *
+ * Convenience function for simple use cases.
+ *
+ * @param responses - Sequence of correct/incorrect responses
+ * @param params - BKT parameters (optional, uses defaults)
+ * @returns Final mastery probability
+ */
+export function estimateMastery(responses, params = BKT_DEFAULTS) {
+    let pMastery = params.pInit;
+    for (const correct of responses) {
+        const pCorrectGivenMastery = 1 - params.pSlip;
+        const pCorrectGivenNoMastery = params.pGuess;
+        // Posterior
+        if (correct) {
+            const pCorrect = pCorrectGivenMastery * pMastery +
+                pCorrectGivenNoMastery * (1 - pMastery);
+            pMastery = (pCorrectGivenMastery * pMastery) / pCorrect;
+        }
+        else {
+            const pIncorrect = params.pSlip * pMastery + (1 - params.pGuess) * (1 - pMastery);
+            pMastery = (params.pSlip * pMastery) / pIncorrect;
+        }
+        // Learning transition
+        pMastery = pMastery + params.pLearn * (1 - pMastery);
+    }
+    return pMastery;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=bkt.js.map

package/dist/esm/assessment/bkt.js.map

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package/dist/esm/assessment/index.js

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+/**
+ * Assessment Framework
+ *
+ * This module provides comprehensive assessment capabilities:
+ * - Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) for skill-level mastery
+ * - Item Response Theory (IRT) for ability estimation
+ * - Unified mastery estimation engine
+ * - Adaptive testing with intelligent item selection
+ *
+ * @packageDocumentation
+ */
+export { createQuestionId, createAssessmentId, createResponseId, BKT_DEFAULTS, } from '../types/assessment.js';
+// Bayesian Knowledge Tracing
+export { BKTEngine, createBKTEngine, fitBKTParameters, calculateLogLikelihood, estimateMastery, BKT_CONFIG_DEFAULTS, } from './bkt.js';
+// Item Response Theory
+export { IRTEstimator, createIRTEstimator, calculateProbability, calculateProbabilityDerivative, calculateInformation, calculateTestInformation, calculateStandardError, selectNextItemMFI, abilityToPercentile, abilityToGradeLevel, estimateAbility, IRT_CONFIG_DEFAULTS, } from './irt.js';
+// Mastery Engine
+export { MasteryEngine, createMasteryEngine, MASTERY_ENGINE_DEFAULTS, } from './mastery-engine.js';
+// Adaptive Testing
+export { AdaptiveEngine, createAdaptiveEngine, createQuestionPool, ADAPTIVE_DEFAULTS, TERMINATION_DEFAULTS, } from './adaptive.js';
+//# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/esm/assessment/index.js.map

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