npm - kenaz - Versions diffs - 0.3.21 → 0.3.23 - Mend

kenaz 0.3.21 → 0.3.23

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package/core/.kenaz/designs/metaplasticity_simulation_results.json DELETED Viewed

@@ -1,696 +0,0 @@
-{
-  "metadata": {
-    "task_id": "TASK_1245",
-    "simulation_date": "2026-04-17T19:02:38.012352",
-    "rule": "Rule 2: delta_c = alpha_type * acted_on_rate * (1 - c), capped at 0.99",
-    "design_spec": ".kenaz/designs/METAPLASTICITY_CONFIDENCE_DESIGN.md",
-    "db_path": ".synapse/db/memory.db",
-    "data_window_days": 90,
-    "min_recalls_threshold": 3,
-    "min_acted_on_rate_threshold": 0.5,
-    "alpha_by_type": {
-      "ash": 0.01,
-      "decision": 0.02,
-      "fix": 0.02,
-      "pattern": 0.03,
-      "risk": 0.03,
-      "insight": 0.05,
-      "summary": 0.05
-    },
-    "simulation_mode": "READ_ONLY (no writes to memory.db)"
-  },
-  "dataset_summary": {
-    "total_active_runes": 901,
-    "runes_with_integer_scale_confidence": 29,
-    "runes_with_zero_recalls_90d": 551,
-    "runes_with_any_recalls_90d": 350,
-    "runes_with_any_acted_on": 7,
-    "total_recall_events_all_time": 6333,
-    "total_acted_on_events_all_time": 22,
-    "global_acted_on_rate": 0.0035,
-    "runes_qualifying_for_boost_90d": 0,
-    "usage_log_date_range": {
-      "from": "2026-03-29T04:28:09",
-      "to": "2026-04-17T18:57:47"
-    }
-  },
-  "raw_distribution_by_type": [
-    {
-      "type": "ash",
-      "count": 77,
-      "avg_conf_raw": 11.4378,
-      "min_conf_raw": 0.73,
-      "max_conf_raw": 95.0
-    },
-    {
-      "type": "decision",
-      "count": 114,
-      "avg_conf_raw": 3.0269,
-      "min_conf_raw": 0.75,
-      "max_conf_raw": 85.0
-    },
-    {
-      "type": "fix",
-      "count": 54,
-      "avg_conf_raw": 3.795,
-      "min_conf_raw": 0.78,
-      "max_conf_raw": 80.0
-    },
-    {
-      "type": "insight",
-      "count": 91,
-      "avg_conf_raw": 2.9809,
-      "min_conf_raw": 0.75,
-      "max_conf_raw": 86.0
-    },
-    {
-      "type": "pattern",
-      "count": 46,
-      "avg_conf_raw": 2.5276,
-      "min_conf_raw": 0.75,
-      "max_conf_raw": 80.0
-    },
-    {
-      "type": "risk",
-      "count": 98,
-      "avg_conf_raw": 3.4484,
-      "min_conf_raw": 0.7,
-      "max_conf_raw": 81.0
-    },
-    {
-      "type": "summary",
-      "count": 421,
-      "avg_conf_raw": 0.6371,
-      "min_conf_raw": 0.6,
-      "max_conf_raw": 0.85
-    }
-  ],
-  "confidence_distribution_comparison": {
-    "before": {
-      "p10": 0.6,
-      "p25": 0.65,
-      "p50": 0.75,
-      "p75": 0.85,
-      "p90": 0.92,
-      "p99": 0.95,
-      "mean": 0.75
-    },
-    "after_old_rule_flat_005": {
-      "p10": 0.6,
-      "p25": 0.65,
-      "p50": 0.75,
-      "p75": 0.85,
-      "p90": 0.92,
-      "p99": 0.95,
-      "mean": 0.7501
-    },
-    "after_new_rule_rule2": {
-      "p10": 0.6,
-      "p25": 0.65,
-      "p50": 0.75,
-      "p75": 0.85,
-      "p90": 0.92,
-      "p99": 0.95,
-      "mean": 0.75
-    }
-  },
-  "type_breakdown": {
-    "ash": {
-      "total_runes": 77,
-      "qualifying_for_boost": 0,
-      "at_099_before": 0,
-      "at_099_after_new": 0,
-      "pct_099_after": 0.0,
-      "avg_conf_before": 0.8631,
-      "max_conf_before": 0.97,
-      "min_conf_before": 0.6
-    },
-    "decision": {
-      "total_runes": 114,
-      "qualifying_for_boost": 0,
-      "at_099_before": 0,
-      "at_099_after_new": 0,
-      "pct_099_after": 0.0,
-      "avg_conf_before": 0.8732,
-      "max_conf_before": 0.95,
-      "min_conf_before": 0.75
-    },
-    "fix": {
-      "total_runes": 54,
-      "qualifying_for_boost": 0,
-      "at_099_before": 3,
-      "at_099_after_new": 3,
-      "pct_099_after": 5.6,
-      "avg_conf_before": 0.8978,
-      "max_conf_before": 0.99,
-      "min_conf_before": 0.78
-    },
-    "pattern": {
-      "total_runes": 46,
-      "qualifying_for_boost": 0,
-      "at_099_before": 0,
-      "at_099_after_new": 0,
-      "pct_099_after": 0.0,
-      "avg_conf_before": 0.8059,
-      "max_conf_before": 0.9,
-      "min_conf_before": 0.75
-    },
-    "risk": {
-      "total_runes": 98,
-      "qualifying_for_boost": 0,
-      "at_099_before": 0,
-      "at_099_after_new": 0,
-      "pct_099_after": 0.0,
-      "avg_conf_before": 0.8276,
-      "max_conf_before": 0.97,
-      "min_conf_before": 0.6
-    },
-    "insight": {
-      "total_runes": 91,
-      "qualifying_for_boost": 0,
-      "at_099_before": 0,
-      "at_099_after_new": 0,
-      "pct_099_after": 0.0,
-      "avg_conf_before": 0.8227,
-      "max_conf_before": 0.93,
-      "min_conf_before": 0.6
-    },
-    "summary": {
-      "total_runes": 421,
-      "qualifying_for_boost": 0,
-      "at_099_before": 0,
-      "at_099_after_new": 0,
-      "pct_099_after": 0.0,
-      "avg_conf_before": 0.6371,
-      "max_conf_before": 0.85,
-      "min_conf_before": 0.6
-    }
-  },
-  "success_criteria_evaluation": {
-    "SC1_no_out_of_range_values": {
-      "criterion": "All confidence + proposed_boost stays in [0.60, 0.99]",
-      "result": true,
-      "status": "PASS",
-      "evidence": "All 901 runes remain in [0.60, 0.99] after simulation"
-    },
-    "SC2_p90_shift_bounded": {
-      "criterion": "P90 confidence after simulation <= current P90 + 0.05",
-      "p90_before": 0.92,
-      "p90_after_new": 0.92,
-      "shift": 0.0,
-      "threshold": 0.05,
-      "result": true,
-      "status": "PASS",
-      "evidence": "P90 shift = 0.0 (threshold: 0.05). 0 runes qualify for boost due to signal sparsity."
-    },
-    "SC3_no_type_runaway_at_099": {
-      "criterion": "No rune type has >80% of its runes at 0.99 after simulation",
-      "max_pct_at_099": 5.6,
-      "threshold_pct": 80.0,
-      "result": true,
-      "status": "PASS",
-      "evidence": "Max type % at 0.99 = 5.6%. fix type has 3 runes pre-existing at 0.99 (not caused by rule)."
-    },
-    "SC4_monotonicity_preserved": {
-      "criterion": "Higher acted_on_rate => larger boost for same type and confidence",
-      "violations": 0,
-      "result": true,
-      "status": "PASS",
-      "evidence": "0 monotonicity violations across all rune pairs"
-    },
-    "SC5_zero_signal_unchanged": {
-      "criterion": "Runes with 0 recalls are unchanged",
-      "zero_recall_runes": 551,
-      "result": true,
-      "status": "PASS",
-      "evidence": "551 zero-recall runes, all proposed_boost=0.0"
-    },
-    "SC6_type_ordering_preserved": {
-      "criterion": "For same acted_on_rate and confidence: ash boost < decision boost < insight boost",
-      "result": true,
-      "status": "PASS_THEORETICAL",
-      "evidence": "No qualifying runes to test empirically (signal sparsity). Ordering is correct by construction from ALPHA constants: ash=0.01 < decision/fix=0.02 < pattern/risk=0.03 < insight/summary=0.05",
-      "theoretical_example": {
-        "at_conf_0.8_rate_0.75": {
-          "ash": 0.0015,
-          "decision": 0.003,
-          "pattern": 0.0045,
-          "insight": 0.0075
-        }
-      }
-    }
-  },
-  "signal_sparsity_analysis": {
-    "finding": "CRITICAL: The acted_on signal is extremely sparse — only 22 out of 6333 recall events (0.35%) have acted_on=1.",
-    "qualifying_runes_for_boost_90d": 0,
-    "practical_impact": "Under current data conditions, NEITHER the old (+0.05 flat) nor the new (Rule 2) produces any confidence updates in the 90-day window.",
-    "root_cause": "Agents rarely pass related_rune_ids to synapse_inscribe. The acted_on=1 flag only fires when synapse_inscribe is called with related_rune_ids pointing to previously recalled runes.",
-    "recommendations": [
-      "Improve related_rune_ids capture rate in synapse_inscribe calls (primary fix)",
-      "OR reduce acted_on_rate threshold from 0.5 to 0.2 (more permissive)",
-      "OR extend data window from 90 days to 180 days",
-      "OR introduce recall_frequency as secondary positive signal (Section 4, Signal B)"
-    ],
-    "note": "This is a deployment precondition issue, not a formula failure. The rule is correct but needs signal infrastructure."
-  },
-  "verdict": {
-    "decision": "GO",
-    "confidence": 0.85,
-    "summary": "All 6 success criteria pass (5 PASS, 1 PASS_THEORETICAL). The proposed Rule 2 saturation-weighted formula is mathematically safe, produces no distribution violations, and preserves ranking diversity. Zero runes cluster at 0.99 as a result of the rule. HOWEVER: the acted_on signal is too sparse for the rule to have practical impact today — 0 runes qualify for boost in the 90-day window. Implementation should proceed but must be paired with acted_on signal improvement.",
-    "conditions_for_deployment": [
-      "1. REQUIRED: Improve acted_on capture rate (pass related_rune_ids in synapse_inscribe calls), OR reduce threshold",
-      "2. REQUIRED: Wrap apply_usage_boosts in SQLite transaction to prevent FTS5 lock contention (Risk 5)",
-      "3. KEEP: minimum recall threshold >= 3 (prevents noise on sparse data)",
-      "4. DEFER: Contradiction signal (Signal C) to Phase 2 as specified in design spec"
-    ],
-    "not_no_go_because": [
-      "All distribution safety tests pass with zero violations",
-      "Rule formula is mathematically correct and bounded",
-      "No out-of-range confidence values possible",
-      "No runaway clustering at 0.99 (current data: 0 new runes reach ceiling)",
-      "Signal sparsity is a deployment infrastructure issue, not a rule formula failure"
-    ]
-  },
-  "rune_level_sample_with_recalls": [
-    {
-      "id": "rune_002ab5fb9e534fa8b8d756f4fa2224f6",
-      "type": "risk",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.88,
-      "confidence": 0.88,
-      "total_recalls": 24,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.88,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.88
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_0081a8c2ec4b4015a962b51823b57d4d",
-      "type": "fix",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.92,
-      "confidence": 0.92,
-      "total_recalls": 2,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.92,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.92
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_01d91c80bcb24c6dad6a284add3e745f",
-      "type": "ash",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.95,
-      "confidence": 0.95,
-      "total_recalls": 24,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.95,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.95
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_0208bc2a0752432f9cb2e975c55afd4b",
-      "type": "decision",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.82,
-      "confidence": 0.82,
-      "total_recalls": 1,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.82,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.82
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_0272cb8f629b4ec5b9469265e7131e95",
-      "type": "risk",
-      "raw_confidence": 9.0,
-      "confidence": 0.6,
-      "total_recalls": 138,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.6,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.6
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_02d248d61d3e4c4f94e363fa78350eef",
-      "type": "decision",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.88,
-      "confidence": 0.88,
-      "total_recalls": 4,
-      "acted_on": 2,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.5,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.88,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.88
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_049131b2b3774c0786fb125b952ceb6f",
-      "type": "summary",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.65,
-      "confidence": 0.65,
-      "total_recalls": 2,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.65,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.65
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_04dab2df78b34943ba65118dbba15e3b",
-      "type": "fix",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.9,
-      "confidence": 0.9,
-      "total_recalls": 1,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.9,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.9
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_054338f07ec1491da96c763f5f4b82a8",
-      "type": "risk",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.85,
-      "confidence": 0.85,
-      "total_recalls": 1,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.85,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.85
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_05fc330d4d0c47bd90dafdd07da5ac51",
-      "type": "risk",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.92,
-      "confidence": 0.92,
-      "total_recalls": 1,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.92,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.92
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_060ff3d976a348ac98342c3f98d540dd",
-      "type": "summary",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.65,
-      "confidence": 0.65,
-      "total_recalls": 1,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.65,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.65
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_08538cd40e83435ea8e21bd03298d0ca",
-      "type": "fix",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.92,
-      "confidence": 0.92,
-      "total_recalls": 3,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.92,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.92
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_0a041877ead24526bef6288cc4c21906",
-      "type": "insight",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.85,
-      "confidence": 0.85,
-      "total_recalls": 38,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.85,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.85
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_0ab6ad9bb3b44fb7bb26ba0befb5eda7",
-      "type": "summary",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.65,
-      "confidence": 0.65,
-      "total_recalls": 2,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.65,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.65
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_0acaf899378f4f40bec36b9bc1e5b13a",
-      "type": "pattern",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.85,
-      "confidence": 0.85,
-      "total_recalls": 4,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.85,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.85
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_0b0ce0c6ef424e209f13a1051efba29a",
-      "type": "risk",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.75,
-      "confidence": 0.75,
-      "total_recalls": 2,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.75,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.75
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_0cab1e44e04c46ddb0ac0f6c336bf3ed",
-      "type": "insight",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.9,
-      "confidence": 0.9,
-      "total_recalls": 2,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.9,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.9
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_0d1eb078e4d947818cd08fcf138ceabc",
-      "type": "summary",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.65,
-      "confidence": 0.65,
-      "total_recalls": 1,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.65,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.65
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_0d5f503ec63a453d81dff0ba914481b5",
-      "type": "ash",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.88,
-      "confidence": 0.88,
-      "total_recalls": 1,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.88,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.88
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_10c39bade4764cb58088b30ff76f0bbc",
-      "type": "ash",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.85,
-      "confidence": 0.85,
-      "total_recalls": 2,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.85,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.85
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_11e4cc5b0b30477da92ce6c82b08d302",
-      "type": "pattern",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.9,
-      "confidence": 0.9,
-      "total_recalls": 3,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.9,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.9
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_131363b39c384a7b90c6ba1972cd028d",
-      "type": "summary",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.6,
-      "confidence": 0.6,
-      "total_recalls": 3,
-      "acted_on": 0,
-      "acted_on_rate": 0.0,
-      "old_boost": 0.0,
-      "proposed_boost": 0.0,
-      "delta_vs_old": 0.0,
-      "conf_after_old": 0.6,
-      "conf_after_new": 0.6
-    },
-    {
-      "id": "rune_1445929b65014fc4a0a961005fbfed6f",
-      "type": "decision",
-      "raw_confidence": 0.85,
-      "confidence": 0.85,
-      "total_recalls": 79,
-      "acted_on": 0,
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