investing 0.1.140 → 0.1.142

package/README.md

@@ -4,22 +4,22 @@
 
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-    <a href="https://qwksearch.com/api"><img src="https://img.shields.io/badge/Docs-blue?logo=ReadTheDocs&logoColor=white" alt="Documentation" /></a>
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@@ -33,8 +33,6 @@ A comprehensive TypeScript/JavaScript library for investment analysis, trading a
 - 🤖 **Trading Agents** - Multi-agent framework for automated trading strategies
 - 📊 **Stock Data** - Fetch and analyze stock data from Yahoo Finance, SEC filings, and more
 - 💹 **Prediction Markets** - Polymarket integration for prediction market data
-- 🔮 **PredictOS Core** - Multi-agent prediction-market analysis, Kalshi/Polymarket
-  data clients, and cross-platform arbitrage (merged in from the `predictos` package)
 - 🔌 **Alpaca Trading API** - Easy-to-use wrapper for Alpaca trading platform
 - 📈 **Technical Analysis** - Algorithmic trading strategies and indicators
 - 🎯 **Social Trading** - Track and analyze top traders and strategies
@@ -113,36 +111,51 @@ const leaders = await fetchLeaderboard({
 });
 ```
 
-### PredictOS — Prediction-Market Analysis & Arbitrage
+### Kalshi Momentum Paper Agent
 
-```typescript
-import {
-  runEventAnalysisAgent,
-  findArbitrage,
-  getEvents,
-} from "investing/predictos";
+The prediction-markets package includes a deterministic TypeScript port of the
+momentum rules from PyKalshi's MIT-licensed
+`kalshi-bot-api/examples/momentum_bot.py`. It consumes recorded ticks and uses
+an in-memory paper executor, so it never connects to Kalshi, submits orders, or
+requires credentials.
 
-const url = "https://polymarket.com/event/will-x-happen-by-2026";
+Run the included replay from `packages/investing`:
 
-// Resolve a Polymarket / Kalshi / Jupiter event URL into its raw markets
-const event = await getEvents({ url });
+```bash
+bun run demo:kalshi-momentum
+```
 
-// Analyze those markets for alpha and a predicted winner
-const { analysis } = await runEventAnalysisAgent({
-  markets: event.markets,
-  eventIdentifier: event.eventIdentifier,
-  pmType: event.pmType,
-  model: "grok-4-fast",
-  tools: ["x_search"], // Grok models only
+```typescript
+import { runKalshiMomentumPaperAgent } from "investing/prediction-markets";
+
+const result = runKalshiMomentumPaperAgent({
+  initialCashCents: 10_000,
+  ticks: [50, 51, 52, 53, 58].map((yesPriceCents, index) => ({
+    ticker: "DEMO-KALSHI-MARKET",
+    timestamp: new Date(Date.UTC(2026, 0, 1, 0, index)).toISOString(),
+    yesPriceCents,
+  })),
 });
 
-// Look for the same event mispriced on the other venue
-const arb = await findArbitrage({ url, model: "grok-4-fast" });
+console.log(result.report);
 ```
 
-Every entry point takes a typed `request` object and an optional second
-`config` (`AIConfig` / `DataConfig`) that falls back to `process.env`. Missing
-required fields **throw** rather than returning an error result.
+Prices are integer cents per contract. A YES tick of `53` implies a NO price
+of `47`. Trade `action` (`BUY`, `SELL`, `HOLD`) is separate from the binary
+`outcome` (`YES`, `NO`): selling YES closes YES contracts and does not mean
+buying NO.
+
+Configuration controls `lookback`, `momentumThreshold`, `positionSize`,
+`profitTargetCents`, `stopLossCents`, and `maxPosition`. The defaults preserve
+the upstream example: three consecutive moves, 10 contracts, a 5-cent target,
+a 3-cent stop, and a 50-contract limit. The paper executor fills immediately at
+the recorded outcome price with no fees or slippage and reports cash, open
+positions, and realized/unrealized P&L.
+
+This replay is a strategy demonstration, not a backtest or live execution
+system. It assumes complementary YES/NO prices, does not model an order book,
+partial fills, fees, latency, settlement, or market resolution, and does not
+enable the existing unimplemented Kalshi live mapper.
 
 ### Trading Agents Framework
 
@@ -248,7 +261,7 @@ Get Polymarket leaderboard of top traders.
 - `limit` - Number of results (default: 20)
 - `category` - Market category (default: 'overall')
 
-### PredictOS Core
+### Prediction-Market Agents & Arbitrage
 
 ```typescript
 import {
@@ -257,80 +270,26 @@ import {
   runMapperAgent,
   findArbitrage,
   getEvents,
-} from "investing/predictos";
+} from "investing/prediction-markets";
 ```
 
-> Adapted from [PredictOS](https://github.com/PredictionXBT/PredictOS) by
-> **PredictionXBT** (MIT licensed, © 2025). The original code shipped as
-> Deno/Supabase edge functions; here it is refactored into plain, typed,
-> dependency-light library functions with no HTTP/CORS layer. It lived in a
-> sibling `predictos` package until that package was merged into `investing`.
-> See [`NOTICE`](./NOTICE) and
-> [`LICENSE-PredictOS-MIT`](./LICENSE-PredictOS-MIT).
-
-#### What it covers
-
-- **AI provider clients** — OpenAI (Responses API), Grok/xAI (Responses API,
-  with optional `x_search` / `web_search` tools), and BlockRun (x402
-  wallet-based micropayments across 20+ models), plus the analysis prompt
-  builders (`analyzeEventMarkets`, `bookmakerAnalysis`, `arbitrageAnalysis`,
-  `searchQueryGenerator`).
-- **Market data clients** — Kalshi via the DFlow API
-  (`investing/predictos/data/kalshi`) and Polymarket via the Dome API
-  (`investing/predictos/data/polymarket`).
-- **Multi-agent pipeline** (`investing/predictos/agents`):
-  - `runEventAnalysisAgent` — analyzes an event's markets for alpha and a
-    predicted winner.
-  - `runBookmakerAgent` — aggregates multiple agent analyses (and optional
-    external data sources) into a single consolidated assessment.
-  - `runMapperAgent` — turns an analysis into Polymarket order parameters
-    (pure logic; Kalshi mapping not yet implemented).
-- **Cross-platform arbitrage** (`investing/predictos/arbitrage`) —
-  `findArbitrage` parses a Polymarket/Kalshi URL, generates a search query with
-  AI, searches the other platform, and evaluates whether the same event is
-  mispriced across venues.
-- **Event fetching** (`getEvents`) — resolves a Polymarket/Kalshi/Jupiter URL
-  into its raw markets (Kalshi via DFlow, Polymarket via the Gamma API).
-
-#### Subpath exports
-
-| Import | Contents |
-| --- | --- |
-| `investing/predictos` | Everything (barrel) |
-| `investing/predictos/ai` | AI clients + prompt builders |
-| `investing/predictos/data/kalshi` | Kalshi (DFlow) data client |
-| `investing/predictos/data/polymarket` | Polymarket (Dome) data client |
-| `investing/predictos/agents` | `runEventAnalysisAgent`, `runBookmakerAgent`, `runMapperAgent` |
-| `investing/predictos/arbitrage` | `findArbitrage` |
-
-The barrel re-exports the Kalshi (DFlow) client at the top level. The Polymarket
-(Dome) client exposes Kalshi helpers under the same names, so the barrel renames
-those two to `getDomeKalshiMarketsByEvent` / `buildDomeKalshiMarketUrl` — import
-from `investing/predictos/data/polymarket` for their original names. The
-Gamma/CLOB trading client, Polyfactual and x402 are namespaced on the barrel as
-`polymarketClob`, `polyfactual` and `x402` for the same reason.
-
-#### Refactor notes (Deno → Node)
-
-- Deno HTTP handlers (`Deno.serve`, `new Response(...)`, CORS headers) were
-  removed. Each endpoint is now a plain exported async function taking typed
-  parameters and returning a typed result; validation failures `throw`.
-- `Deno.env.get("X")` was replaced with config/options objects
-  (`AIConfig`, `DataConfig`, per-call `apiKey`/`walletKey`) that fall back to
-  `process.env` (`OPENAI_API_KEY`, `XAI_API_KEY`, `BLOCKRUN_WALLET_KEY`,
-  `DOME_API_KEY`, `DFLOW_API_KEY`). No secrets are hardcoded.
-- Remote (`https://...`) and `npm:` import specifiers were replaced with normal
-  package imports (`ethers`). The global `fetch` (Node 18+) is used throughout.
-- Prompt text and analysis logic are preserved verbatim.
-
-#### Not ported (yet)
-
-Intentionally left out of the core port — noted for future work: the Next.js
-`terminal/` frontend, the Python alpha-hunter examples, the **pay.sh** payment
-serving flows, **Irys** verifiable-agent storage, wallet-tracking websockets, and
-on-chain order execution (the mapper produces order parameters, but placing
-orders is out of scope). The BlockRun client *is* ported (it only needs `ethers`
-+ `fetch`), but its on-chain micropayment flow is untested in this environment.
+Multi-agent analysis over Polymarket and Kalshi, refactored from Deno/Supabase
+edge functions into plain typed async functions (MIT, see
+`src/prediction-markets/LICENSE`):
+
+- **AI clients** — OpenAI, Grok/xAI and BlockRun (x402 micropayments), plus the
+  analysis prompt builders.
+- **Market data** — Kalshi via DFlow and Polymarket via Dome/Gamma.
+- `runEventAnalysisAgent` — analyzes an event's markets for alpha and a
+  predicted winner.
+- `runBookmakerAgent` — aggregates several agent analyses into one assessment.
+- `runMapperAgent` — turns an analysis into Polymarket order parameters.
+- `findArbitrage` — finds the same event on the other venue and checks whether
+  it is mispriced across venues.
+- `getEvents` — resolves a Polymarket/Kalshi URL into its raw markets.
+
+Keys are read from options, falling back to `OPENAI_API_KEY`, `XAI_API_KEY`,
+`BLOCKRUN_WALLET_KEY`, `DOME_API_KEY` and `DFLOW_API_KEY`.
 
 ### Trading Agents
 
@@ -411,12 +370,6 @@ ALPACA_SECRET=your_secret_here
 # OpenAI for AI-powered analysis
 OPENAI_API_KEY=your_openai_key
 
-# PredictOS: prediction-market analysis and data
-XAI_API_KEY=your_xai_key           # Grok/xAI
-BLOCKRUN_WALLET_KEY=your_wallet_key # BlockRun x402 micropayments
-DOME_API_KEY=your_dome_key          # Polymarket market data
-DFLOW_API_KEY=your_dflow_key        # Kalshi market data
-
 # Optional: Alternative LLM providers
 ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=your_anthropic_key
 GOOGLE_API_KEY=your_google_key
@@ -529,15 +482,7 @@ See the `/examples` directory for complete working examples:
 
 - [GitHub Repository](https://github.com/vtempest/ai-broker-investment-agent)
 - [Documentation](https://invest.vtempest.com/docs)
-- [Agent skill](../../skills/ask-investing/SKILL.md)
 - [Examples](./examples)
 
-## Credits
-
-The `predictos` module is a derivative work of
-[PredictOS](https://github.com/PredictionXBT/PredictOS) — all original design and
-logic © 2025 PredictionXBT, MIT licensed. See [`NOTICE`](./NOTICE) and
-[`LICENSE-PredictOS-MIT`](./LICENSE-PredictOS-MIT).
-
 - [GitHub Issues](https://github.com/vtempest/ai-broker-investment-agent/issues)
 - [Documentation](https://invest.vtempest.com/docs)