instar 1.3.977 → 1.3.978

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "instar",
-  "version": "1.3.977",
+  "version": "1.3.978",
   "description": "Coherence infrastructure for self-evolving AI agents — on the Claude Code or Codex subscription you already have.",
   "type": "module",
   "main": "dist/index.js",

package/src/data/builtin-manifest.json

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 {
   "$schema": "./builtin-manifest.schema.json",
   "schemaVersion": 1,
-  "generatedAt": "2026-07-26T02:56:24.966Z",
-  "instarVersion": "1.3.977",
+  "generatedAt": "2026-07-26T03:27:13.325Z",
+  "instarVersion": "1.3.978",
   "entryCount": 202,
   "entries": {
     "hook:session-start": {
@@ -418,7 +418,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "monitoring",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:agents": {
@@ -426,7 +426,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "sessions",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:backups": {
@@ -434,7 +434,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "operations",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:git": {
@@ -442,7 +442,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "coordination",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:memory": {
@@ -450,7 +450,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "memory",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:semantic": {
@@ -458,7 +458,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "memory",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:status": {
@@ -466,7 +466,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "monitoring",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:capabilities": {
@@ -474,7 +474,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "mapping",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:project-map": {
@@ -482,7 +482,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "mapping",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:coherence": {
@@ -490,7 +490,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "coherence",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:topic-bindings": {
@@ -498,7 +498,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "sessions",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:context": {
@@ -506,7 +506,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "context",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:scope-coherence": {
@@ -514,7 +514,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "coherence",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:canonical-state": {
@@ -522,7 +522,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "state",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:ci": {
@@ -530,7 +530,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "monitoring",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:sessions": {
@@ -538,7 +538,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "sessions",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:jobs": {
@@ -546,7 +546,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "scheduling",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:skip-ledger": {
@@ -554,7 +554,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "scheduling",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:telegram": {
@@ -562,7 +562,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "communication",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:attention": {
@@ -570,7 +570,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "communication",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:relationships": {
@@ -578,7 +578,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "relationships",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:feedback": {
@@ -586,7 +586,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "feedback",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:updates": {
@@ -594,7 +594,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "updates",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:dispatches": {
@@ -602,7 +602,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "dispatches",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:quota": {
@@ -610,7 +610,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "monitoring",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:publishing": {
@@ -618,7 +618,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "publishing",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:private-views": {
@@ -626,7 +626,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "publishing",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:tunnel": {
@@ -634,7 +634,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "networking",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:events": {
@@ -642,7 +642,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "networking",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:evolution": {
@@ -650,7 +650,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "evolution",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:watchdog": {
@@ -658,7 +658,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "monitoring",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:topic-memory": {
@@ -666,7 +666,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "memory",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:state-sync": {
@@ -674,7 +674,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "coordination",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:intent": {
@@ -682,7 +682,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "intent",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:triage": {
@@ -690,7 +690,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "safety",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:operations": {
@@ -698,7 +698,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "safety",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:sentinel": {
@@ -706,7 +706,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "safety",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:trust": {
@@ -714,7 +714,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "safety",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:monitoring": {
@@ -722,7 +722,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "monitoring",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:commitments": {
@@ -730,7 +730,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "commitments",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:episodes": {
@@ -738,7 +738,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "memory",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:messages": {
@@ -746,7 +746,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "coordination",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:system-reviews": {
@@ -754,7 +754,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "monitoring",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "route-group:machine-mesh": {
@@ -770,7 +770,7 @@
       "type": "route-group",
       "domain": "security",
       "sourcePath": "src/server/routes.ts",
-      "contentHash": "7cdcbcf5111f5aa3ee5ec3f24500072e7eb5a5a88efb1363a597935949b74a14",
+      "contentHash": "a3947b0ea121818f2c3424b7db10dcdd8e39c460dbbd4cd0c390804850b78462",
       "since": "2025-01-01"
     },
     "cli:init": {

package/upgrades/1.3.978.md

@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
+# Upgrade Guide — vNEXT
+
+<!-- assembled-by: assemble-next-md -->
+<!-- bump: patch -->
+
+## What Changed
+
+**The standards audit's own honesty field was overclaiming, and reported `trustworthy: true` over the
+exact defect it was added to expose.**
+
+Verified on the LIVE endpoint two hours after v1.3.975 deployed: `total: 22`,
+`enforcedRatio: 0.0455`, **`assessmentTrustworthy: true`**, zero canary failures — while the source
+registry carries **81** articles. The stale agent-home copy is not malformed; it is a self-consistent
+document that is a quarter of the real one, so it passes every INTERNAL check by construction.
+
+`assessmentTrustworthy` was `total > 0 && canaryOk` — i.e. "my internal checks passed" — but it READ
+as "this assessment is trustworthy". Those are different claims.
+
+- **`assessmentConfidence`** (new): `'verified' | 'unverified' | 'untrustworthy'`.
+  - `untrustworthy` — a check actively failed (nothing parsed, or the canary objected).
+  - `unverified` — internal checks passed but NO external expectation existed to confirm this is the
+    CURRENT constitution rather than a coherent older copy.
+  - `verified` — internal checks passed AND a same-build expectation matched.
+- **`confidenceReason`** (new): always populated, plain English.
+- **`assessmentTrustworthy`** — deprecated, retained one release, TRUE only on `verified`.
+
+`'verified'` is **unreachable today**: the expectation mechanism is a separate, not-yet-approved
+change. So every passing read now reports `unverified` — including a complete, correct registry,
+because the instrument genuinely cannot verify completeness. Anything stronger would be the same
+overclaim in nicer clothes.
+
+**A project item could never be recorded as merged if its pull request's CI had ever been red — even
+after it was fixed.**
+
+`StageTransitionValidator.ciIsGreen` evaluated EVERY entry in GitHub's `statusCheckRollup`. GitHub
+returns every run of every check, **including superseded ones**, so a check that failed and was
+re-run to green appears twice and the failure never disappears. Verified on the live PR #1641
+(merged legitimately): 31 rollup entries, four check names duplicated, including
+`eli16 FAILURE 01:44:01Z` beside `eli16 SUCCESS 01:45:32Z`. Branch protection merged the PR because it
+uses each check's CURRENT state; the tracker refused it with `CI_NOT_GREEN` because it also counted
+the stale run.
+
+The rollup is now collapsed to the **latest run per check name** (by `completedAt`, falling back to
+`startedAt`) before greenness is judged — which is what GitHub's own merge gate does.
+
+Three safeguards so the dedupe can never hide a genuine failure: the latest run is authoritative in
+BOTH directions (a success followed by a later failure is still not green); runs that cannot be
+ordered FAIL CLOSED (equal or missing timestamps ⇒ the failing run wins); and unnamed status entries
+are keyed individually so a failing one is never collapsed into a passing one.
+
+End-to-end, against the two real merged pull requests with the route's exact helper wiring: both went
+from refused to accepted.
+
+## What to Tell Your User
+
+If you read a standards-enforcement figure, it now comes with a confidence verdict and a plain
+reason beside it. Most installs will see the verdict "unverified" — that is honest rather than a
+fault. It means the numbers are arithmetic over whatever copy of the rules was on disk, and nothing
+yet confirms that copy is the current one. A verdict of "untrustworthy" means a check actually
+failed and the figures describe only a fragment of your rules.
+
+If you track work in projects, marking an item as merged now succeeds for a pull request whose checks
+went red and were then fixed — which previously failed with a confusing "CI is not green" long after
+the pull request had merged.
+
+## Summary of New Capabilities
+
+- Greenness is evaluated per check against its latest run, matching branch-protection semantics.
+
+## Evidence
+
+- `tests/unit/standards-enforcement-auditor.test.ts` — a coherent-but-stale registry passes every
+  internal check (zero dropped headings, `parsed === articleHeadings`) and still must not read
+  `verified`; plus all four `deriveAssessmentConfidence` verdicts in both directions.
+- `tests/integration/conformance-dev-gate-route.test.ts` — the HTTP body carries the verdict.
+- `tests/e2e/standards-coverage-lifecycle.test.ts` — the verdict + reason survive production init.
+
+- `tests/unit/StageTransitionValidator.test.ts` — five new cases: the live superseded-failure shape;
+  the reverse direction (later failure still refuses); unorderable runs fail closed across three
+  variants; unnamed entries never collapsed; an in-flight latest run still not green.
+
+## Known Gap (stated, not resolved)
+
+A coherent stale registry is still reported with real-looking figures; it is now LABELLED
+`unverified` with a reason naming that possibility, but the instrument cannot say which case it is
+in. Closing that needs an external expectation shipped beside the registry — the blocked
+`standards-registry-snapshot-refresh` spec. This change makes the uncertainty visible; it does not
+resolve it.

package/upgrades/side-effects/assessment-confidence-unverified.md

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+# Side-Effects Review — assessmentConfidence: my own honesty field was overclaiming
+
+## Summary of the change
+
+`CoverageSummary.assessmentTrustworthy` (shipped hours earlier in PR #1641) reported **`true` over
+the exact defect it was added to expose.** Verified on the LIVE endpoint after v1.3.975 deployed:
+
+```
+total: 22 | enforcedRatio: 0.0455 | assessmentTrustworthy: TRUE | canaryOk: true | canaryFailures: 0
+registry.parsed: 22 | articleHeadings: 22 | bytes: 46606 | families: [5 of the 6]
+```
+
+The source registry carries **81** articles. The stale agent-home copy is not malformed — it is a
+self-consistent document that is a quarter of the real one, so it passes every INTERNAL check by
+construction (all headings parse, none dropped, anchors present, count above the floor).
+
+`assessmentTrustworthy` was computed as `total > 0 && registry.canaryOk` — i.e. "my internal checks
+passed". It READ as "this assessment is trustworthy". Conflating those is the failure the whole
+instrument was being fixed for.
+
+Replaced by a tri-state `assessmentConfidence` (`'verified' | 'unverified' | 'untrustworthy'`) plus
+an always-populated `confidenceReason`. The boolean is retained, deprecated, TRUE only on
+`'verified'`.
+
+**Root insight:** nothing INSIDE a 22-rule document says it should have 81. Trustworthiness is not
+obtainable by looking harder at the file — it needs an EXTERNAL expectation. That mechanism is the
+blocked `standards-registry-snapshot-refresh` spec, so `'verified'` is unreachable today, and the
+honest verdict for every passing read is `'unverified'`.
+
+Proven against the real live registry (all four states):
+
+| input | before | after |
+|---|---|---|
+| the live 22-of-81 copy | `trustworthy: true` | `unverified` + reason |
+| the real 81-article registry | `true` | `unverified` — still correct; nothing to check against |
+| a MATCHING expectation | unreachable | `verified` |
+| a MISMATCHED expectation | unreachable | `untrustworthy` |
+
+## Decision-point inventory
+
+- `computeCoverage` / `GET /conformance/coverage{,/health}` — OBSERVE-ONLY. Gates nothing, blocks
+  nothing, no code path branches on the verdict. This changes what is REPORTED, never what anything
+  DOES.
+- `deriveAssessmentConfidence` — new, exported, pure. Extracted deliberately: inline, TypeScript's
+  flow analysis proved `'verified'` unreachable and REJECTED the comparison deriving the deprecated
+  boolean. That rejection is TRUE and is the point; a function keeps the union open for when an
+  expectation ships without pretending it is reachable now. (TS caught this, which is worth noting —
+  the compiler objected to a claim I could not yet honour.)
+- No gate, hook, sentinel, reaper, scheduler, migration or config surface touched.
+
+## 1. Over-block
+
+Nothing blocks. The adjacent risk is over-alarming: `assessmentTrustworthy` is now `false`
+EVERYWHERE, including for a complete and correct registry. That is intentional and argued in the
+ELI16: the instrument genuinely cannot verify completeness today, so anything stronger is the same
+overclaim in nicer clothes.
+
+The tri-state exists precisely so this is not alarming: `'unverified'` says *I do not know*, which is
+neither reassuring nor a red flag. A consumer reading only the deprecated boolean sees `false` and
+may over-read it — which is why the boolean is deprecated in its doc comment and the reason string is
+always populated.
+
+## 2. Under-block
+
+No detection is weakened: `'untrustworthy'` still fires on every case the boolean fired on (nothing
+parsed, canary objected), asserted in the updated tests. The change only ADDS a state between "fine"
+and "broken" where none existed.
+
+The residual gap, stated plainly: **a coherent stale registry is still reported with real-looking
+figures** (`total: 22, enforcedRatio: 0.0455`). It is now labelled `unverified` with a reason naming
+the possibility of "a coherent older copy", but the instrument cannot say *which* is the case. Only
+the blocked spec closes that. This change makes the uncertainty visible; it does not resolve it, and
+it must not be described as resolving it.
+
+## 3. Blast radius
+
+One field's semantics in `src/core/StandardsEnforcementAuditor.ts`; the route spreads the summary so
+the new fields flow automatically. Consumers checked with a full-text scan (`grep` silently returned
+nothing for a pattern present twice in this very file — python was used instead, and that tooling
+anomaly is recorded):
+
+- `assessmentTrustworthy` appears in exactly three test files (all updated) and nowhere in `src/`
+  outside its declaration and derivation. No runtime branch reads it.
+- The response is additive apart from the boolean's meaning narrowing; no field renamed or removed.
+
+## 4. Rollback plan
+
+Single-commit revert; no state, config, migration or persisted artifact. The audit recomputes per
+request.
+
+## 5. Test coverage (all three tiers)
+
+- **Unit** (`standards-enforcement-auditor.test.ts`, 16 pass): a coherent-but-stale registry (a real
+  whole-family subset of the live constitution) has zero dropped headings and `parsed ===
+  articleHeadings` — i.e. passes every internal check — and STILL must not read `verified`; plus
+  `deriveAssessmentConfidence`'s four verdicts in both directions, including that a mismatched
+  expectation is `untrustworthy` rather than merely `unverified`.
+- **Integration** (`conformance-dev-gate-route.test.ts`): the HTTP body carries
+  `assessmentConfidence: 'untrustworthy'` for an empty registry.
+- **E2E** (`standards-coverage-lifecycle.test.ts`): the verdict and its reason survive the production
+  initialization path.
+
+## 6. A fourth test found encoding the defect
+
+`standards-enforcement-auditor.test.ts` asserted `assessmentTrustworthy === true` for the full
+registry — pinning the overclaim as a specification. That is the FOURTH test found this evening
+asserting the behaviour it should have been challenging (the others: the standards parser's
+five-family allowlist, a fixture whose meaning changed with the wall clock, and the
+learning-velocity route's filed-items-count-as-learning fixtures).
+
+Four in one day is not a coincidence about those four tests. It is a property of how tests get
+written here: they pin what the code currently does. A green suite therefore attests to
+self-consistency, not correctness — which is the same shape as everything else this project has
+found, applied to our own verification. Recorded as a class; not fixed here, because the fix is a
+standard about how assertions are chosen, not a code change.
+
+## 7. How this was found, which is the transferable part
+
+Not by a test. By deploying and reading the live surface. The suite was fully green — it tested the
+cases I had thought of, which were exactly the cases my fix handled. The stale-but-coherent case was
+outside my imagination, and no amount of internal testing would have surfaced it.
+
+Two hours from shipping to discovery. The generalisable rule: **after shipping an honesty fix, read
+the live surface for the case you were fixing.** If the number you set out to correct still looks
+fine, you have not corrected it.