instar 1.3.687 → 1.3.688

package/dist/monitoring/ReleaseReadinessSentinel.d.ts

@@ -128,6 +128,15 @@ export interface ReleaseReadinessSentinelConfig {
     backlogAgeDaysHigh?: number;
     hysteresisHours?: number;
     staleEpisodeTtlDays?: number;
+    /**
+     * Fast-trigger (RELEASE-FRAGMENT-GATE-SPEC Layer 2, D7): when the block is
+     * specifically a missing release-note fragment (guideBlocksPublish) WITH
+     * unreleased feature/fix work — the case where publish.yml would SILENTLY
+     * SKIP — surface at LOW IMMEDIATELY instead of waiting out the multi-day age
+     * floor. This closes the "fresh fragment-less merge sits silent for 2 days"
+     * gap that the 2026-06-27 incident exposed. Default on.
+     */
+    fastTriggerOnGuideBlock?: boolean;
 }
 export declare class ReleaseReadinessSentinel extends EventEmitter {
     private readonly deps;

package/dist/monitoring/ReleaseReadinessSentinel.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/monitoring/ReleaseReadinessSentinel.js

@@ -39,6 +39,7 @@ const DEFAULTS = {
     backlogAgeDaysHigh: 7,
     hysteresisHours: 12,
     staleEpisodeTtlDays: 30,
+    fastTriggerOnGuideBlock: true,
 };
 const DAY_MS = 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
 const HOUR_MS = 60 * 60 * 1000;
@@ -150,7 +151,8 @@ export class ReleaseReadinessSentinel extends EventEmitter {
             await this.failLoud(state, 'analyzer', new Error('analyze-release returned no report'));
             return;
         }
-        const blocked = this.isBlocked(report, await this.deps.guideBlocksPublish());
+        const guideBlocks = await this.deps.guideBlocksPublish();
+        const blocked = this.isBlocked(report, guideBlocks);
         if (!blocked) {
             // Backlog clear — resolve any open episodes.
             await this.resolveAll(state, 'cleared');
@@ -167,14 +169,21 @@ export class ReleaseReadinessSentinel extends EventEmitter {
             return;
         }
         const ageDays = (this.deps.now() - oldest.dateMs) / DAY_MS;
-        const priority = this.priorityForAge(ageDays);
+        const ageBasedPriority = this.priorityForAge(ageDays);
+        // Fast-trigger (D7): a missing-fragment block with unreleased feature/fix
+        // work is the SILENT-SKIP case — surface at LOW immediately, bypassing the
+        // multi-day age floor, instead of letting a fresh fragment-less merge sit
+        // silent for days (the 2026-06-27 gap).
+        const featureOrFix = report.analysis.commitClassification.features + report.analysis.commitClassification.fixes;
+        const fastTriggered = this.cfg.fastTriggerOnGuideBlock && guideBlocks && featureOrFix > 0 && !ageBasedPriority;
+        const priority = ageBasedPriority ?? (fastTriggered ? 'LOW' : null);
         let episode = state.episodes.find((e) => e.oldestSha === oldest.sha && !e.resolvedMs);
         if (!episode) {
             episode = { oldestSha: oldest.sha, firstDetectedMs: this.deps.now() };
             state.episodes.push(episode);
         }
         if (!priority) {
-            // Below the silent threshold — recorded, no message.
+            // Below the silent threshold AND not a fast-trigger case — recorded, no message.
             this.reap(state);
             return;
         }
@@ -200,8 +209,8 @@ export class ReleaseReadinessSentinel extends EventEmitter {
             episode.attentionId = id;
             episode.lastPriority = priority;
             state.lastSignalAt = this.deps.now();
-            this.deps.audit({ kind: 'release-readiness', event: 'signal', oldestSha: oldest.sha, priority, ageDays: days, delivered });
-            this.emit('signal', { oldestSha: oldest.sha, priority });
+            this.deps.audit({ kind: 'release-readiness', event: 'signal', oldestSha: oldest.sha, priority, ageDays: days, delivered, fastTriggered });
+            this.emit('signal', { oldestSha: oldest.sha, priority, fastTriggered });
         }
         this.reap(state);
     }

package/dist/monitoring/ReleaseReadinessSentinel.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "instar",
-  "version": "1.3.687",
+  "version": "1.3.688",
   "description": "Coherence infrastructure for self-evolving AI agents — on the Claude Code or Codex subscription you already have.",
   "type": "module",
   "main": "dist/index.js",

package/scripts/check-release-fragment.mjs

@@ -0,0 +1,152 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+/**
+ * release-fragment-gate (Layer 1) — the server-side PR-time check that a
+ * release-affecting PR carries a release-note fragment.
+ *
+ * ── Why ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * A HARD pre-push gate already requires the fragment, but it runs in husky
+ * LOCALLY — the server-side squash/bot/auto-merge path that lands most merges
+ * never runs husky, so a fragment-less change reaches main and the publish
+ * SILENTLY skips the release (2026-06-27: PRs #1295-#1297 stranded ~7h). This
+ * gate moves the SAME requirement to the merge boundary, where it cannot be
+ * routed around.
+ *
+ * ── Signal vs Authority ───────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * This is an AUTHORITY (it can block a merge), but its veto rests on an
+ * OBJECTIVE BINARY — "a release-note fragment file is present, yes/no" — exactly
+ * the shape the existing eli16-pr-gate already establishes. The release-relevant
+ * path predicate is a FALLIBLE SIGNAL: a false positive is always escapable by
+ * adding a one-line `internal-only` fragment. The block is carried by the
+ * presence condition, never the predicate's correctness.
+ *
+ * ── Security ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * Runs under `on: pull_request` (NOT pull_request_target), read-only token, no
+ * PR-head checkout. Untrusted PR title/body arrive via env (process.env), never
+ * shell-interpolated. The bot exemption keys on the AUTHENTICATED actor identity
+ * (login + type), never a spoofable title string. FAIL-CLOSED: any internal
+ * error reports the check FAILED, never green.
+ *
+ * Pure `checkReleaseFragment(...)` is exported for unit testing; the CLI wrapper
+ * reads env set by the workflow and exits 0 (pass/exempt) or 1 (fail).
+ */
+
+import { isReleaseRelevant } from './release-relevant-paths.mjs';
+
+/** A changed file that is a release-note fragment (the opt-out lane is itself such a file). */
+function isFragmentFile(p) {
+  if (typeof p !== 'string') return false;
+  const norm = p.trim().replace(/\\/g, '/').replace(/^\.\//, '');
+  return /^upgrades\/next\/.+\.md$/.test(norm) || norm === 'upgrades/NEXT.md';
+}
+
+/**
+ * @param {{
+ *   files?: Array<{ path: string, status?: string }> | string[],
+ *   authorLogin?: string|null,
+ *   authorType?: string|null,
+ *   title?: string|null,
+ *   releaseBotLogin?: string|null,   // the known release-cut bot login (default github-actions[bot])
+ * }} pr
+ * @returns {{ ok: boolean, exempt?: string, reason?: string, relevant?: string[] }}
+ */
+export function checkReleaseFragment(pr) {
+  const releaseBotLogin = (pr?.releaseBotLogin ?? 'github-actions[bot]');
+
+  // ── Exemption: ONLY the authenticated release-cut bot identity ──────
+  // Keyed on login + type, NEVER a title/commit-message string. A human-authored
+  // PR titled "chore: release …" is still gated (the spoof fails by construction).
+  const login = String(pr?.authorLogin ?? '');
+  const type = String(pr?.authorType ?? '');
+  if (type === 'Bot' && login && login === releaseBotLogin) {
+    return { ok: true, exempt: 'release-cut-bot' };
+  }
+
+  // Normalize the changed-file list (accept the files API shape OR a bare path list).
+  const rawFiles = Array.isArray(pr?.files) ? pr.files : [];
+  const paths = rawFiles.map((f) => (typeof f === 'string' ? f : f?.path)).filter((p) => typeof p === 'string');
+
+  // (a) Any release-relevant changed path?
+  const relevant = paths.filter((p) => isReleaseRelevant(p));
+  if (relevant.length === 0) {
+    return { ok: true, exempt: 'no-release-relevant-paths' };
+  }
+
+  // (b) A release-note fragment added/modified? (Presence, not content — Layer 1
+  //     has only the file list. The internal-only opt-out IS such a file, so its
+  //     presence satisfies this; its legitimacy is verified downstream at
+  //     assemble-next-md + pre-push-gate §3c.)
+  const hasFragment = paths.some(isFragmentFile);
+  if (hasFragment) {
+    return { ok: true };
+  }
+
+  return { ok: false, reason: 'release-relevant-no-fragment', relevant };
+}
+
+// ── CLI (used by .github/workflows/release-fragment-gate.yml) ─────────
+const invokedDirectly =
+  process.argv[1] && import.meta.url === new URL(`file://${process.argv[1]}`).href;
+
+if (invokedDirectly) {
+  // FAIL-CLOSED: any throw below exits non-zero (never a silent green).
+  try {
+    // The workflow provides the changed-file list as JSON in PR_FILES_JSON
+    // (array of { path/filename, status }), and PR_AUTHOR_LOGIN / PR_AUTHOR_TYPE
+    // / PR_TITLE from the event. WARN_ONLY=1 reports the verdict without failing
+    // (soak phase — spec D2/D3).
+    let files = [];
+    try {
+      const parsed = JSON.parse(process.env.PR_FILES_JSON || '[]');
+      if (Array.isArray(parsed)) {
+        files = parsed.map((f) => ({ path: f.path ?? f.filename, status: f.status }));
+      }
+    } catch (e) {
+      console.error(`release-fragment-gate: could NOT parse PR_FILES_JSON — failing closed. ${e?.message ?? e}`);
+      process.exit(1);
+    }
+
+    const res = checkReleaseFragment({
+      files,
+      authorLogin: process.env.PR_AUTHOR_LOGIN,
+      authorType: process.env.PR_AUTHOR_TYPE,
+      title: process.env.PR_TITLE,
+      releaseBotLogin: process.env.RELEASE_BOT_LOGIN || undefined,
+    });
+
+    const warnOnly = process.env.WARN_ONLY === '1';
+
+    if (res.ok) {
+      console.log(
+        res.exempt
+          ? `release-fragment-gate: exempt (${res.exempt}).`
+          : 'release-fragment-gate: OK — a release-note fragment is present.',
+      );
+      // Emit a machine-readable verdict line for the rollout log (spec D3).
+      console.log(`::notice::release-fragment-gate verdict=PASS exempt=${res.exempt ?? 'none'}`);
+      process.exit(0);
+    }
+
+    const msg =
+      `release-fragment-gate: this PR changes release-relevant files but adds NO release-note ` +
+      `fragment (upgrades/next/<slug>.md). Without one, the publish pipeline SILENTLY SKIPS the ` +
+      `release — your change would merge but never ship (the 2026-06-27 incident).\n` +
+      `  Release-relevant files:\n` +
+      res.relevant.slice(0, 8).map((f) => `    • ${f}`).join('\n') +
+      (res.relevant.length > 8 ? `\n    • …and ${res.relevant.length - 8} more` : '') +
+      `\n  Fix: add upgrades/next/<slug>.md describing the change (via /instar-dev). For a genuinely ` +
+      `no-user-impact change, add a fragment carrying the standalone <!-- internal-only --> marker.`;
+
+    if (warnOnly) {
+      console.log(`::warning::${msg.replace(/\n/g, ' ')}`);
+      console.log(`::notice::release-fragment-gate verdict=FAIL warn-only=1 (not blocking during soak)`);
+      process.exit(0); // soak phase: report, do not block
+    }
+    console.error(msg);
+    console.log(`::notice::release-fragment-gate verdict=FAIL blocking=1`);
+    process.exit(1);
+  } catch (e) {
+    // FAIL-CLOSED — an internal error must turn the check RED, never green.
+    console.error(`release-fragment-gate: internal error — failing closed. ${e?.stack ?? e}`);
+    process.exit(1);
+  }
+}

package/scripts/lint-no-direct-destructive.js

@@ -134,6 +134,12 @@ const ALLOWLIST = new Set([
   // previous release. Build-time only; never executes on an agent's
   // machine. Per INSTAR-JOBS-AS-AGENTMD spec §Drift Classifier.
   'scripts/classify-default-drift.mjs',
+  // release-fragment-gate Layer 2 publish-side annotator — runs READ-ONLY git
+  // (`describe --tags`, `diff --name-only -z`, `log`, `ls-files`) inside the
+  // publish GitHub Action to detect unreleased release-relevant work on a skip.
+  // CI-only; never executes on an agent's machine, and TS isn't compiled there
+  // so it cannot import the SafeGitExecutor funnel. Per RELEASE-FRAGMENT-GATE-SPEC.
+  'scripts/release-skip-annotate.mjs',
   // Tier-3 CI ratchet for the cartographer doc-tree (cartographer-doc-freshness
   // spec #2). A standalone .mjs (parity with docs-coverage.mjs) that runs in CI
   // with NO build step, so it cannot import the TS SafeGitExecutor funnel. All

package/scripts/pre-push-gate.js

@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ import path from 'node:path';
 import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url';
 import { validateGuideContent } from './upgrade-guide-validator.mjs';
 import { assembleNextMd, gatherFragmentInputs, hasInternalOnlyMarker } from './assemble-next-md.mjs';
+import { isReleaseRelevant } from './release-relevant-paths.mjs';
 
 const __dirname = path.dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url));
 const ROOT = path.resolve(__dirname, '..');
@@ -191,13 +192,19 @@ try {
   const fragmentChanges = changedFiles.filter(f =>
     f.startsWith('upgrades/next/') || f === 'upgrades/NEXT.md'
   );
-  if (srcChanges.length > 0 && fragmentChanges.length === 0) {
+  // Release-relevance is now the SHARED predicate (scripts/release-relevant-paths.mjs),
+  // the same one the server-side Layer-1 PR gate uses — so "needs a release note?"
+  // has one answer in both places. This BROADENS the old src/**.ts-only check to
+  // also catch scripts/, .github/workflows/, package.json, and skill code/templates
+  // (all of which ship behavior but previously slipped this local gate).
+  const releaseRelevantChanges = changedFiles.filter(isReleaseRelevant);
+  if (releaseRelevantChanges.length > 0 && fragmentChanges.length === 0) {
     errors.push(
-      `${srcChanges.length} source file(s) changed but no release-note fragment was added. ` +
+      `${releaseRelevantChanges.length} release-relevant file(s) changed but no release-note fragment was added. ` +
       `Without upgrades/next/<slug>.md (or upgrades/NEXT.md), publish.yml SILENTLY SKIPS the ` +
       `release — your change would merge but never ship. Add a fragment describing the change:\n` +
-      srcChanges.slice(0, 5).map(f => `      • ${f}`).join('\n') +
-      (srcChanges.length > 5 ? `\n      • ...and ${srcChanges.length - 5} more` : '')
+      releaseRelevantChanges.slice(0, 5).map(f => `      • ${f}`).join('\n') +
+      (releaseRelevantChanges.length > 5 ? `\n      • ...and ${releaseRelevantChanges.length - 5} more` : '')
     );
   }
 

package/scripts/release-relevant-paths.mjs

@@ -0,0 +1,171 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+/**
+ * release-relevant-paths — the SINGLE SOURCE OF TRUTH for "does this changed
+ * file ship behavior that must carry a release-note fragment?"
+ *
+ * ── Why this exists ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * The release-note fragment requirement was enforced by THREE independent
+ * predicates that could drift: `pre-push-gate.js §3b` (`src/**.ts` only — too
+ * narrow, missed scripts/workflows), and the publish-side skip is path-blind.
+ * On 2026-06-27 PRs #1295-#1297 merged with no fragment and the publish ran
+ * green and silently skipped (v1.3.685 stuck ~7h). This module is the one
+ * predicate the PR-time gate (Layer 1) AND the local pre-push gate share, so
+ * "is this release-relevant?" has exactly one answer everywhere.
+ *
+ * It answers ONE question: "needs a release note?". It is deliberately NOT
+ * `instar-dev-precommit.js`'s `inScope()` — that answers a DIFFERENT question
+ * ("needs instar-dev review?") and is intentionally narrower; merging them
+ * would silently change which changes require review. (See the spec's D6 +
+ * the side-effects artifact for the reconciliation.)
+ *
+ * ── The predicate (spec D6) ───────────────────────────────────────────
+ *   RELEASE-RELEVANT (positive): src/, scripts/, .husky/, skills/** code +
+ *     SKILL.md + templates/, package.json, package-lock.json,
+ *     .github/workflows/**.
+ *   EXEMPT (never release-relevant, even under a positive root):
+ *     any *.test.ts, the tests/ tree, the docs/ tree, a bare *.md (notes/readme)
+ *     that is NOT a SKILL.md or under a skill templates/ dir, the upgrades/ tree
+ *     (the fragment dir itself), the .instar/ tree (agent-local), and repo
+ *     dotfiles like .gitignore.
+ *
+ * Paths are canonicalized (POSIX separators, no leading ./, `..` REJECTED as
+ * relevant — the safe direction) and compared case-insensitively on the
+ * segment, so `Src/Foo.TS`, `src/../src/x.ts`, and `src/x.ts/` cannot evade.
+ *
+ * Pure + exported for unit testing; the CLI wrapper classifies a newline/comma
+ * list of paths.
+ */
+
+/** Canonicalize a changed-file path to a comparable POSIX form. Returns null if it escapes the tree. */
+export function canonicalizePath(raw) {
+  if (typeof raw !== 'string') return null;
+  let p = raw.trim();
+  if (!p) return null;
+  // Normalize separators + strip a leading ./, collapse duplicate slashes.
+  p = p.replace(/\\/g, '/').replace(/\/+/g, '/').replace(/^\.\//, '').replace(/\/+$/, '');
+  if (!p) return null;
+  // Reject any traversal segment — a `..` path is treated as release-relevant
+  // by the caller (fail toward "in scope"), never silently exempt.
+  const segments = p.split('/');
+  if (segments.some((s) => s === '..')) return { escaped: true, path: p };
+  return { escaped: false, path: p };
+}
+
+/** Lowercase form for case-insensitive matching (covers macOS/Windows case-fold FS). */
+function lc(p) {
+  return p.toLowerCase();
+}
+
+/**
+ * Is this changed file release-relevant (needs a release-note fragment)?
+ * @param {string} rawPath a repo-relative changed-file path
+ * @returns {boolean}
+ */
+export function isReleaseRelevant(rawPath) {
+  const c = canonicalizePath(rawPath);
+  if (c === null) return false;
+  // A traversal path is ambiguous → bias toward release-relevant (the safe
+  // direction: a false "needs a note" is escapable with a one-line fragment; a
+  // false exempt silently re-opens the 2026-06-27 silent-skip).
+  if (c.escaped) return true;
+  const p = lc(c.path);
+
+  // ── EXEMPT (checked first — exemptions override positive roots) ──────
+  // Test files anywhere.
+  if (p.endsWith('.test.ts') || p.endsWith('.test.js') || p.endsWith('.test.mjs')) return false;
+  if (p === 'tests' || p.startsWith('tests/')) return false;
+  // Docs + the release-notes machinery itself.
+  if (p === 'docs' || p.startsWith('docs/')) return false;
+  if (p === 'upgrades' || p.startsWith('upgrades/')) return false;
+  // Agent-local + repo dotfiles that ship no runtime behavior.
+  if (p.startsWith('.instar/')) return false;
+  if (p.startsWith('.github/') && !p.startsWith('.github/workflows/')) return false; // ISSUE_TEMPLATE etc.
+
+  // ── POSITIVE (release-relevant) ─────────────────────────────────────
+  if (p === 'package.json' || p === 'package-lock.json') return true;
+  if (p.startsWith('.github/workflows/')) return true;
+  if (p.startsWith('src/')) return true;
+  if (p.startsWith('scripts/')) return true;
+  if (p.startsWith('.husky/')) return true;
+  // Built-in skills under skills/ ship behavior.
+  if (p.startsWith('skills/')) return isSkillPathRelevant(p);
+  // SHIPPED .claude paths (package.json `files`): .claude/hooks/** and the
+  // built-in .claude/skills/<name>/ dirs are hand-maintained behavior that
+  // reaches the fleet via npm — NOT exempt (the second-pass-review fix). Other
+  // .claude/** is agent-local and not shipped → exempt.
+  if (p.startsWith('.claude/hooks/')) return true;
+  if (p.startsWith('.claude/skills/') && SHIPPED_CLAUDE_SKILLS.some((n) => p.startsWith(`.claude/skills/${n}/`))) {
+    return isSkillPathRelevant(p);
+  }
+
+  // ── Everything else: a bare *.md, assets, examples, site, etc. → exempt.
+  return false;
+}
+
+/** Built-in .claude/skills/<name> dirs shipped via package.json `files`. */
+const SHIPPED_CLAUDE_SKILLS = ['setup-wizard', 'secret-setup', 'autonomous', 'build'];
+
+/**
+ * Within a skill dir, classify a path. FAIL TOWARD RELEVANT: a SKILL.md, a
+ * templates/ file, or ANY code/data file is relevant; only a bare doc *.md that
+ * is NOT a SKILL.md and NOT under templates/ is exempt. (Broadened from a fixed
+ * extension allowlist so .cjs/.py/.json and future code types are not silently
+ * exempted — the second-pass-review fix.)
+ */
+function isSkillPathRelevant(p) {
+  if (p.endsWith('/skill.md')) return true;
+  if (p.includes('/templates/')) return true;
+  if (p.endsWith('.md')) return false; // a non-SKILL.md skill doc
+  return true; // any other file under a skill ships behavior/data
+}
+
+/**
+ * Classify a list of changed-file paths.
+ * @param {string[]} paths
+ * @returns {{ relevant: string[], exempt: string[] }}
+ */
+export function classifyPaths(paths) {
+  const relevant = [];
+  const exempt = [];
+  for (const raw of paths) {
+    const c = canonicalizePath(raw);
+    const display = c && !c.escaped ? c.path : (typeof raw === 'string' ? raw.trim() : String(raw));
+    if (isReleaseRelevant(raw)) relevant.push(display);
+    else if (display) exempt.push(display);
+  }
+  return { relevant, exempt };
+}
+
+/**
+ * The current top-level shipped/runtime roots, derived from package.json `files`.
+ * Used by the anti-drift guard test: a NEW top-level root the predicate does not
+ * explicitly classify must fail the test, so a future release-bearing directory
+ * cannot silently fall through as a false-negative (spec D6 anti-drift rule).
+ * @param {string[]} filesWhitelist package.json `files`
+ * @returns {string[]} distinct top-level segments
+ */
+export function shippedTopLevelRoots(filesWhitelist) {
+  const roots = new Set();
+  for (const entry of filesWhitelist || []) {
+    const c = canonicalizePath(entry);
+    if (!c || c.escaped) continue;
+    const top = c.path.split('/')[0];
+    if (top) roots.add(top);
+  }
+  return [...roots].sort();
+}
+
+// ── CLI: classify a newline/comma-separated list of paths from argv/stdin ──
+const invokedDirectly =
+  process.argv[1] && import.meta.url === new URL(`file://${process.argv[1]}`).href;
+
+if (invokedDirectly) {
+  const arg = process.argv.slice(2).join(' ').trim();
+  let input = arg;
+  if (!input) {
+    try { input = require('node:fs').readFileSync(0, 'utf8'); } catch { input = ''; }
+  }
+  const paths = input.split(/[\n,]/).map((s) => s.trim()).filter(Boolean);
+  const { relevant, exempt } = classifyPaths(paths);
+  process.stdout.write(JSON.stringify({ relevant, exempt, releaseRelevant: relevant.length > 0 }, null, 2) + '\n');
+}

package/scripts/release-skip-annotate.mjs

@@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+/**
+ * release-skip-annotate (Layer 2, publish-side) — when the publish pipeline is
+ * about to SKIP a release (no fragment → no version), check whether
+ * release-relevant work has merged since the last published tag, and if so emit
+ * a LOUD, count-capped annotation + step summary instead of a silent green run.
+ *
+ * Spec: docs/specs/RELEASE-FRAGMENT-GATE-SPEC.md (Layer 2, D1/D7/D11).
+ *
+ * It is a SIGNAL: it NEVER fails the run (always exits 0) and NEVER claims to
+ * raise an Attention item (a CI runner cannot reach the agent's Attention store —
+ * the durable surface is the agent-side ReleaseReadinessSentinel). Commit data is
+ * read NUL-delimited via execFile argv arrays — never a shell string — and never
+ * echoed raw through `::`-prefixed workflow commands beyond the bounded message.
+ *
+ * Boundary (D11): the authoritative window start is the most recent annotated
+ * `vX.Y.Z` tag (written only by the release bot, so it is NOT PR-mutable). A
+ * missing/unparseable boundary surfaces ALL reachable commits with an eval-note —
+ * never a silent empty range.
+ *
+ * Pure `classifyRange({ files })` is exported for testing; the CLI does the git I/O.
+ */
+
+import { execFileSync } from 'node:child_process';
+import fs from 'node:fs';
+import { isReleaseRelevant } from './release-relevant-paths.mjs';
+
+/**
+ * Given a list of changed file paths in the unreleased window, return the
+ * release-relevant subset.
+ * @param {{ files: string[] }} input
+ * @returns {{ relevant: string[] }}
+ */
+export function classifyRange({ files }) {
+  const relevant = (files || []).filter((f) => isReleaseRelevant(f));
+  return { relevant };
+}
+
+function git(args) {
+  // argv array — never a shell string. NUL-delimited callers split on \0.
+  return execFileSync('git', args, { encoding: 'utf8', maxBuffer: 64 * 1024 * 1024 });
+}
+
+/** Most recent annotated vX.Y.Z tag reachable from HEAD, or null. */
+function lastReleaseTag() {
+  try {
+    const out = git(['describe', '--tags', '--match', 'v[0-9]*', '--abbrev=0']).trim();
+    return out || null;
+  } catch {
+    return null;
+  }
+}
+
+/** Changed files in <range> as an array (NUL-delimited, opaque). */
+function changedFilesInRange(range) {
+  // --name-only -z gives NUL-delimited filenames; we never shell-interpolate them.
+  const raw = git(['diff', '--name-only', '-z', range]);
+  return raw.split('\0').map((s) => s.trim()).filter(Boolean);
+}
+
+/** Distinct commit subjects in <range> (count-capped, for the summary only). */
+function commitSubjects(range, cap) {
+  try {
+    const raw = git(['log', '--no-merges', '--format=%s%x00', range]);
+    return raw.split('\0').map((s) => s.trim()).filter(Boolean).slice(0, cap);
+  } catch {
+    return [];
+  }
+}
+
+const invokedDirectly =
+  process.argv[1] && import.meta.url === new URL(`file://${process.argv[1]}`).href;
+
+if (invokedDirectly) {
+  const SUMMARY_CAP = 20;
+  const emit = (line) => process.stdout.write(line + '\n');
+  const summaryFile = process.env.GITHUB_STEP_SUMMARY;
+  const writeSummary = (text) => {
+    if (summaryFile) {
+      try { fs.appendFileSync(summaryFile, text + '\n'); } catch { /* best effort */ }
+    }
+  };
+
+  // NEVER throw out of here — Layer 2 is signal-only; always exit 0.
+  try {
+    const tag = lastReleaseTag();
+    const range = tag ? `${tag}..HEAD` : null;
+    let files;
+    let boundaryNote = '';
+    if (range) {
+      files = changedFilesInRange(range);
+    } else {
+      // Missing boundary (e.g. first publish before any vX.Y.Z tag) — surface
+      // ALL reachable commits with an eval-note, never a silent empty range.
+      boundaryNote = ' (no release tag found — surfacing all reachable history)';
+      files = (() => { try { return git(['ls-files']).split('\n').map((s) => s.trim()).filter(Boolean); } catch { return []; } })();
+    }
+
+    const { relevant } = classifyRange({ files });
+    if (relevant.length === 0) {
+      emit(`::notice::release-skip-annotate: skip is clean — no release-relevant changes since ${tag ?? '(no tag)'}.`);
+      process.exit(0);
+    }
+
+    const subjects = range ? commitSubjects(range, SUMMARY_CAP) : [];
+    const capped = relevant.slice(0, SUMMARY_CAP);
+    const oneLine =
+      `release SKIPPED but ${relevant.length} release-relevant file(s) merged since ${tag ?? 'the start'}${boundaryNote} ` +
+      `with NO release-note fragment — these changes are NOT being shipped. Add upgrades/next/<slug>.md and re-publish.`;
+    emit(`::warning::${oneLine}`);
+
+    const summary =
+      `## ⚠ Release skipped with unreleased release-relevant work\n\n` +
+      `The publish run is about to skip (no release-note fragment), but the following ` +
+      `release-relevant files merged since \`${tag ?? '(no tag)'}\`${boundaryNote} and will NOT ship until a ` +
+      `fragment is added:\n\n` +
+      capped.map((f) => `- \`${f}\``).join('\n') +
+      (relevant.length > SUMMARY_CAP ? `\n- …and ${relevant.length - SUMMARY_CAP} more` : '') +
+      (subjects.length
+        ? `\n\nUnreleased commit subjects:\n\n` + subjects.map((s) => `- ${s.replace(/`/g, "'")}`).join('\n')
+        : '') +
+      `\n\n**Fix:** add \`upgrades/next/<slug>.md\` describing the change (via /instar-dev) and re-publish. ` +
+      `The durable, ack-able signal is raised by the agent-side ReleaseReadinessSentinel; this annotation is a ` +
+      `best-effort CI surface.\n`;
+    writeSummary(summary);
+    emit(`::notice::release-skip-annotate verdict=UNRELEASED-WORK count=${relevant.length}`);
+    process.exit(0);
+  } catch (e) {
+    // Signal-only: an internal error must NOT fail the publish run.
+    emit(`::warning::release-skip-annotate: internal error (non-fatal, release-skip detection only): ${String(e?.message ?? e)}`);
+    process.exit(0);
+  }
+}

package/src/data/builtin-manifest.json

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 {
   "$schema": "./builtin-manifest.schema.json",
   "schemaVersion": 1,
-  "generatedAt": "2026-06-27T20:40:25.167Z",
-  "instarVersion": "1.3.687",
+  "generatedAt": "2026-06-27T21:14:22.583Z",
+  "instarVersion": "1.3.688",
   "entryCount": 202,
   "entries": {
     "hook:session-start": {

package/upgrades/1.3.688.md

@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+# Upgrade Guide — vNEXT
+
+<!-- assembled-by: assemble-next-md -->
+<!-- bump: patch -->
+
+## What Changed
+
+Added the **release-fragment-gate** so a release-affecting PR can no longer merge and
+then SILENTLY skip the release (the 2026-06-27 incident: PRs #1295-#1297 merged with
+no `upgrades/next/` fragment, the publish ran green and cut no version, fixes stranded
+~7h).
+
+The fragment requirement already existed as a HARD local pre-push gate
+(`pre-push-gate.js §3b`) — but husky runs only on a local `git push`, so the
+server-side squash/bot/auto-merge path bypassed it. This change moves the same
+requirement to the merge boundary, server-side, where it can't be routed around:
+
+- **Layer 1 — `release-fragment-gate` CI check** (`.github/workflows/release-fragment-gate.yml`
+  + `scripts/check-release-fragment.mjs`): on every PR to `main`, a release-relevant
+  change with no fragment is flagged. Ships **warn-only** (reports the verdict, never
+  blocks) until the spec's D3 criterion is met and it's registered as a required check.
+  Security-hardened: `on: pull_request` (never `pull_request_target`), read-only token,
+  the gate code loads from the BASE ref (never PR-head), and the bot exemption keys on
+  authenticated identity, not a spoofable title. Fail-closed.
+- **Shared predicate** (`scripts/release-relevant-paths.mjs`): one "is this
+  release-relevant?" answer, consumed by both the PR gate and the local pre-push gate
+  (`§3b` is broadened from `src/**.ts` to also catch `scripts/`, `.github/workflows/`,
+  `package.json`, skill code, and shipped `.claude/hooks` + `.claude/skills`).
+- **Layer 2 — loud-skip backstop**: the publish pipeline now emits a loud warning +
+  step summary when it would skip with unreleased release-relevant work
+  (`scripts/release-skip-annotate.mjs`, signal-only, never fails the run), and the
+  `ReleaseReadinessSentinel` gains a **fast-trigger** so a missing-fragment merge
+  surfaces immediately instead of waiting out the multi-day age floor.
+
+## What to Tell Your User
+
+If a release ever stops cutting versions, the cause is almost always a merged change
+with no "what changed" note — and now you'll be told loudly instead of finding a
+green-but-empty release run hours later. Maintainer agents get an immediate heads-up
+when finished work is sitting unreleased for that reason. Nothing changes for everyday
+users; this is release-pipeline safety for the people who ship instar.
+
+## Summary of New Capabilities
+
+- A server-side PR check that catches a release-affecting change shipped without a
+  release note, before it merges (starts in warn-only mode).
+- One shared rule for "does this change need a release note?", used by both the
+  server check and the local pre-push check.
+- A loud alarm (instead of a silent green run) when the publish pipeline skips a
+  release that still has unreleased work, plus an immediate maintainer heads-up.
+
+## Evidence
+
+57 new unit tests (the shared predicate incl. adversarial path-evasion + an anti-drift
+ownership guard, the Layer-1 decision table incl. the bot-spoof evasion case, and the
+Layer-2 classifier) + the extended ReleaseReadinessSentinel suite (fast-trigger fires
+for the missing-fragment case, does NOT fire for a coverage-gap block, honors its
+off-switch). tsc clean. Driven by the converged + approved
+RELEASE-FRAGMENT-GATE-SPEC (3-round spec-converge, 6 internal + codex/gemini external
+reviewers) and an independent second-pass review that caught + fixed a `.claude`
+shipped-path exemption hole before commit.

package/upgrades/side-effects/release-fragment-gate.md

@@ -0,0 +1,136 @@
+# Side-Effects Review — release-fragment-gate
+
+Spec: `docs/specs/RELEASE-FRAGMENT-GATE-SPEC.md` (converged + approved).
+Change: a server-side PR-time CI gate + a shared release-relevant predicate + a
+publish-side loud-skip annotation + a ReleaseReadinessSentinel fast-trigger, so a
+release-affecting PR can no longer merge and then silently skip the release.
+
+## 1. Over-block — what legitimate inputs does this reject that it shouldn't?
+
+- **Layer 1 (PR gate):** a release-relevant PR with no fragment is FAILED. False
+  positives = a `src/`/`scripts/` change with genuinely no user impact (refactor,
+  logging). Mitigation: the one-line `internal-only` fragment opt-out (diff-verified,
+  auditable) clears it. AND the gate **ships warn-only** — it cannot block anything
+  until the D3 criterion is met and it is manually registered as required. So
+  over-block has zero blast radius at ship time.
+- **Predicate:** biases toward "relevant" on a `..` path (safe direction) — a
+  theoretical over-block, but such paths don't occur in normal PRs.
+
+## 2. Under-block — what failure modes does this still miss?
+
+- Layer 1 checks fragment **presence, not content** (it has only the file list; reading
+  content would require executing PR-head code — the security vector we explicitly
+  avoid). A junk/empty fragment passes Layer 1 — but does NOT re-open the silent skip:
+  `assemble-next-md` THROWS on a content-less fragment (a loud RED publish), and
+  `pre-push-gate §3c` diff-verifies the internal-only legitimacy. Worst case = a loud
+  downstream failure, never a silent green.
+- A direct push to `main` that bypasses PRs entirely (admin/ruleset escape) skips
+  Layer 1 — caught by Layer 2 (the Sentinel poller reads `main` independent of CI).
+- `[skip ci]` on a release-relevant push disables the publish job (incl. the Layer-2
+  annotation) — again caught by the agent-side Sentinel poller, not CI.
+
+## 3. Level-of-abstraction fit
+
+Correct layer. The fragment requirement already existed at the **local** (husky)
+layer; this moves the SAME requirement to the **server/merge-boundary** layer where
+it can't be bypassed, and the durable backstop sits in the **agent-side Sentinel**
+that already owns "unreleased work is piling up." No new parallel watcher — the
+Sentinel is extended (fast-trigger), and the existing eli16-pr-gate establishes the
+blocking-presence-check precedent the Layer-1 gate mirrors.
+
+## 4. Signal vs authority compliance (docs/signal-vs-authority.md)
+
+Declared explicitly in the spec's `## Signal vs. Authority` section.
+- **Layer 1 = AUTHORITY** but its veto is an OBJECTIVE BINARY ("a fragment file is
+  present, yes/no") — the same shape as eli16-pr-gate, NOT a brittle judgment wearing
+  blocking authority. The fallible `release-relevant` path predicate is a SIGNAL whose
+  false-positives are always escapable via the one-line opt-out — the escape hatch, not
+  the predicate's correctness, carries the authority.
+- **Layer 2 = SIGNAL** — the publish annotation never fails the run; the Sentinel
+  surfaces an Attention item, never blocks. Compliant.
+
+## 5. Interactions — shadowing / double-fire / races
+
+- `pre-push-gate §3b` now consumes the shared predicate (BROADENED from `src/**.ts`).
+  It is the LOCAL gate; Layer 1 is the SERVER gate. They check the same thing at two
+  layers (defense in depth) — intentional, not a double-fire (different surfaces; a
+  local push that passes still gets the server check on the PR).
+- `inScope()` (instar-dev review-scope) is deliberately NOT merged into the shared
+  predicate — it answers a DIFFERENT question ("needs instar-dev review?") and is
+  narrower. Merging would silently change which changes require review. Documented.
+- The Sentinel fast-trigger only adds a NEW path (fires LOW when it previously stayed
+  silent for the missing-fragment case); it does not change the age-based escalation,
+  dedup, hysteresis, or resolve logic. The existing "stays silent below threshold"
+  test was updated to isolate the age semantic (fast-trigger off) — no behavior was
+  weakened, a gap was closed.
+
+## 6. External surfaces
+
+- A NEW required-eligible CI check appears on instar-repo PRs (warn-only at first).
+- The publish run gains a `::warning::` + step-summary on a fragment-less skip.
+- The Sentinel may post an Attention item sooner (LOW, immediately) for the
+  missing-fragment case. Same surface (Attention queue), earlier timing.
+- No change visible to end-user agents (this is instar-repo dev infrastructure;
+  `.github/` does not ship to the fleet; `scripts/` ships but is CI/gate-only).
+
+## 7. Multi-machine posture (Cross-Machine Coherence)
+
+- **Layer 1 + Layer 2 publish annotation:** run in GitHub Actions — machine-agnostic,
+  no agent state, no multi-machine concern.
+- **Layer 2 Sentinel fast-trigger:** MACHINE-LOCAL BY DESIGN. The `release-readiness-check`
+  job is single-owner (one dev agent runs it); dedup state lives in
+  `.instar/state/release-readiness.json`. No fenced lease needed — the dedup is advisory
+  and the boundary truth lives in `main` (not agent-local), so the worst case if two
+  agents ran it is a duplicate Attention raise (re-derived from `main`), never a lost
+  signal. On topic/machine transfer the new host re-derives from `main`. Documented in
+  the spec's Cross-machine posture section.
+
+## 8. Rollback cost
+
+- **Layer 1 workflow:** delete/disable `.github/workflows/release-fragment-gate.yml`
+  (or it stays warn-only = non-blocking by default — zero rollback urgency).
+- **Layer 2 publish step:** the new step is `if: skip==true` and exits 0 always;
+  removing it is a one-line revert. It cannot break a real publish (it only runs on the
+  skip branch and never fails).
+- **Sentinel fast-trigger:** config off-switch `fastTriggerOnGuideBlock: false` (no
+  restart-blocking); or revert the src change. The feature ships behind the existing
+  `release-readiness-check` job which is `enabled: false` by default, so on the fleet
+  it is inert until explicitly enabled.
+- **Shared predicate / pre-push §3b broadening:** the broadening only makes the LOCAL
+  gate catch more (scripts/workflows); if it ever false-positives, `INSTAR_PRE_PUSH_SKIP=1`
+  is the existing escape and the predicate is a one-file revert.
+
+No data migration, no agent-state repair, no hot-fix-release dependency. Every layer
+fails safe (warn-only / signal-only / config-gated-off).
+
+## Second-pass review (Phase 5 — required: touches a gate + a sentinel)
+
+An independent reviewer audited the implementation against this artifact.
+
+**Concern raised (MEDIUM, RESOLVED):** the shared predicate exempted
+`.claude/hooks/**` and the four shipped `.claude/skills/<name>/` dirs — but those
+ARE shipped to the fleet via `package.json` `files`, so a `.claude`-only behavior
+change would have been wrongly exempt → re-opening the silent-skip for that path
+class. **Fix applied:** the predicate now classifies `.claude/hooks/**` and the
+shipped built-in `.claude/skills/{setup-wizard,secret-setup,autonomous,build}/`
+paths as release-relevant (non-shipped `.claude/**` stays agent-local/exempt); the
+anti-drift test's `KNOWN['.claude']` was corrected to `relevant` and path tests
+added.
+
+**Concern raised (LOW, RESOLVED):** the skills-code extension allowlist
+(`.sh/.mjs/.js/.ts`) silently exempted `.cjs`/`.py`/`.json`. **Fix applied:** the
+skill-path classifier now FAILS TOWARD RELEVANT — any non-doc file under a skill is
+relevant; only a bare non-SKILL.md `*.md` outside `templates/` is exempt. Tests
+added for `.cjs`/`.py`.
+
+**Concern noted (LOW/INFO, ACCEPTED):** the bot exemption fires for any
+`github-actions[bot]`-authored PR, not strictly the release-cut PR. Keyed on
+authenticated identity (not a spoofable title — evasion test confirms), and Layer 2
++ the Sentinel backstop it. Acceptable; narrow only if a non-release bot ever opens
+release-relevant PRs.
+
+**Reviewer verdict on everything else: Concur — no material concerns.** Layer-1
+security (base-ref load, read-only perms, no PR-head exec, env-passing), fail-closed
+behavior, signal-only Layer-2 annotation (NUL-delimited argv, always exit 0),
+publish-step gating, and the strictly-additive Sentinel fast-trigger were all
+independently confirmed correct.