instar 1.3.337 → 1.3.339

package/dist/core/LearningVelocityScorer.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+/**
+ * LearningVelocityScorer — EXO 3.0's KPI inversion (Salim Ismail, "Your KPI
+ * System Is Training You to Miss the Future").
+ *
+ * Backward-looking operational KPIs (throughput, utilization, efficiency) reward
+ * the existing model and suppress the weak signals where the future shows up.
+ * EXO 3.0 says measure **learning velocity** instead — adaptability,
+ * experimentation, capability creation. Instar already emits the raw learning
+ * events (registered learnings, Playbook items added, corrections captured,
+ * evolution actions); this scorer turns them into a velocity + trend + diversity
+ * signal so an org can watch how fast it's *learning*, not just how much it's
+ * *producing*.
+ *
+ * Pure + deterministic so it's testable and reproducible. The route gathers the
+ * real events; this computes the metric.
+ */
+export interface LearningEvent {
+    /** ISO timestamp of the learning event. */
+    timestamp: string;
+    /** Category: 'learning' | 'playbook' | 'correction' | 'evolution' | 'memory' | string. */
+    type: string;
+}
+export type VelocityTrend = 'accelerating' | 'steady' | 'declining' | 'insufficient-data';
+export interface LearningVelocityResult {
+    windowDays: number;
+    totalEvents: number;
+    /** Events per day across the window. */
+    eventsPerDay: number;
+    /** Count by event type. */
+    byType: Record<string, number>;
+    /** Distinct learning categories seen (a diversity proxy). */
+    typeDiversity: number;
+    /** First-half vs second-half comparison of the window. */
+    trend: VelocityTrend;
+    /** 0–100, blends velocity (capped) and category diversity. */
+    adaptabilityScore: number;
+    reason: string;
+}
+export declare function computeLearningVelocity(events: LearningEvent[], nowIso: string, windowDays?: number): LearningVelocityResult;
+//# sourceMappingURL=LearningVelocityScorer.d.ts.map

package/dist/core/LearningVelocityScorer.d.ts.map

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package/dist/core/LearningVelocityScorer.js

@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+/**
+ * LearningVelocityScorer — EXO 3.0's KPI inversion (Salim Ismail, "Your KPI
+ * System Is Training You to Miss the Future").
+ *
+ * Backward-looking operational KPIs (throughput, utilization, efficiency) reward
+ * the existing model and suppress the weak signals where the future shows up.
+ * EXO 3.0 says measure **learning velocity** instead — adaptability,
+ * experimentation, capability creation. Instar already emits the raw learning
+ * events (registered learnings, Playbook items added, corrections captured,
+ * evolution actions); this scorer turns them into a velocity + trend + diversity
+ * signal so an org can watch how fast it's *learning*, not just how much it's
+ * *producing*.
+ *
+ * Pure + deterministic so it's testable and reproducible. The route gathers the
+ * real events; this computes the metric.
+ */
+// ── Tunables ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+const MIN_EVENTS_FOR_TREND = 4;
+/** events/day at which the velocity component saturates to 100. */
+const VELOCITY_SATURATION = 3;
+const KNOWN_TYPES = ['learning', 'playbook', 'correction', 'evolution', 'memory'];
+// ── Public API ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+export function computeLearningVelocity(events, nowIso, windowDays = 30) {
+    const now = Date.parse(nowIso);
+    const windowMs = windowDays * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
+    const cutoff = now - windowMs;
+    const midpoint = now - windowMs / 2;
+    const inWindow = events.filter((e) => {
+        const t = Date.parse(e.timestamp);
+        return !Number.isNaN(t) && t >= cutoff && t <= now;
+    });
+    const byType = {};
+    let firstHalf = 0;
+    let secondHalf = 0;
+    for (const e of inWindow) {
+        byType[e.type] = (byType[e.type] ?? 0) + 1;
+        if (Date.parse(e.timestamp) >= midpoint)
+            secondHalf++;
+        else
+            firstHalf++;
+    }
+    const totalEvents = inWindow.length;
+    const eventsPerDay = windowDays > 0 ? totalEvents / windowDays : 0;
+    const typeDiversity = Object.keys(byType).length;
+    let trend;
+    if (totalEvents < MIN_EVENTS_FOR_TREND) {
+        trend = 'insufficient-data';
+    }
+    else if (secondHalf > firstHalf * 1.2) {
+        trend = 'accelerating';
+    }
+    else if (secondHalf < firstHalf * 0.8) {
+        trend = 'declining';
+    }
+    else {
+        trend = 'steady';
+    }
+    // Adaptability: 70% velocity (saturating) + 30% category diversity.
+    const velocityComponent = Math.min(1, eventsPerDay / VELOCITY_SATURATION);
+    const diversityComponent = Math.min(1, typeDiversity / KNOWN_TYPES.length);
+    const adaptabilityScore = Math.round((velocityComponent * 0.7 + diversityComponent * 0.3) * 100);
+    const reason = totalEvents === 0
+        ? `No learning events in the last ${windowDays} days — the org may be optimizing the old model rather than learning. (This metric is the EXO 3.0 antidote to backward-looking KPIs.)`
+        : `${totalEvents} learning event(s) over ${windowDays}d (${eventsPerDay.toFixed(2)}/day) across ${typeDiversity} categor${typeDiversity === 1 ? 'y' : 'ies'}; trend ${trend}. Adaptability ${adaptabilityScore}/100.`;
+    return { windowDays, totalEvents, eventsPerDay, byType, typeDiversity, trend, adaptabilityScore, reason };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=LearningVelocityScorer.js.map

package/dist/core/LearningVelocityScorer.js.map

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package/dist/core/OwnerSuspectBreaker.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,79 @@
+/**
+ * OwnerSuspectBreaker — the per-peer circuit breaker behind the SessionRouter's
+ * `markOwnerSuspect` hook ("No Unbounded Loops" / P19).
+ *
+ * The router's forward path already had the SHAPE of a breaker: on delivery
+ * retry exhaustion it calls `markOwnerSuspect(owner)` before re-placing the
+ * message. But the hook was NEVER WIRED in production (the dep is optional and
+ * no implementation existed) — "constructed but inert". The consequence: every
+ * session owned by a slow-or-dead peer independently re-paid the full retry
+ * tax (3 attempts × backoff ≈ 4.5s+) per message, because `isMachineAlive`
+ * reads only capacity heartbeats, which a slow-but-alive peer keeps passing.
+ *
+ * This class is the wiring's missing half. Half-open TTL semantics:
+ *
+ *   markSuspect(peer)   — start/extend a suspect window (default 30s). The
+ *                         FIRST mark of an episode logs once; an episode
+ *                         sustained past signalAfterMs raises ONE degradation
+ *                         signal (per-peer FailureEpisodeLatch — P19 cond. 4).
+ *   isSuspect(peer)     — true inside the window. The composed isMachineAlive
+ *                         then short-circuits dispatches for ALL of that
+ *                         peer's sessions straight to the existing failover
+ *                         re-place path — no per-message retry tax repaid.
+ *   recordSuccess(peer) — a delivery reached the peer: window cleared,
+ *                         recovery logged once, latch re-armed.
+ *
+ *   After the TTL expires the breaker is HALF-OPEN: the next message tries the
+ *   peer for real (paying one retry cycle); success clears, failure re-marks.
+ *   The peer is never written off permanently — the TTL is the backoff, the
+ *   suspect state is the breaker, the per-message retry config is the cap.
+ *
+ * Deliberately POLICY-NEUTRAL: what happens to messages while a peer is
+ * suspect (today: the router's existing re-place path) is the wiring's choice
+ * — the queue-vs-replace stability policy is a separate operator decision
+ * <!-- tracked: CMT-1109 -->. Pure: injectable clock, per-peer bounded state.
+ */
+export interface OwnerSuspectBreakerOpts {
+    /** Suspect window per mark (the half-open backoff). Default 30s. */
+    suspectTtlMs?: number;
+    /** Sustained-suspicion threshold for the one-per-episode degradation signal. Default 10min. */
+    signalAfterMs?: number;
+    now?: () => number;
+    logger?: (msg: string) => void;
+    /** One-per-episode sustained-suspicion sink (wired to DegradationReporter). */
+    reportSustained?: (info: {
+        machineId: string;
+        suspectForMs: number;
+        marks: number;
+    }) => void;
+}
+export declare class OwnerSuspectBreaker {
+    private readonly ttlMs;
+    private readonly now;
+    private readonly opts;
+    /** Per-peer suspect-window end (ms epoch). Deleted on success. */
+    private suspectUntil;
+    /** Per-peer episode accounting (created on first mark, deleted on success). */
+    private episodes;
+    constructor(opts?: OwnerSuspectBreakerOpts);
+    private log;
+    /** Delivery retries to this peer exhausted — open its suspect window.
+     *
+     * ABSOLUTE per-episode TTL: a mark that arrives while a window is ALREADY open
+     * does NOT push the window end forward. Otherwise a steady message stream
+     * arriving faster than the TTL would re-extend the window on every dispatch
+     * (each suspect dispatch re-enters dispatchOne's dead-owner branch, which
+     * re-calls markOwnerSuspect), so `isSuspect` would never go false at the
+     * moment a message arrives — the half-open re-probe (the ONLY path that ever
+     * re-attempts delivery and thus the ONLY path that can clear suspicion) would
+     * never be reached, leaving a fully-RECOVERED peer suspect forever and
+     * force-failing-over all its sessions on every message. The episode latch
+     * still records each mark (sustained-suspicion accounting), but the window
+     * end is fixed at the first mark of each TTL period. */
+    markSuspect(machineId: string): void;
+    /** Inside an open suspect window? (Half-open after the TTL — callers re-probe.) */
+    isSuspect(machineId: string): boolean;
+    /** A delivery reached the peer — close the episode and re-arm. */
+    recordSuccess(machineId: string): void;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=OwnerSuspectBreaker.d.ts.map

package/dist/core/OwnerSuspectBreaker.d.ts.map

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package/dist/core/OwnerSuspectBreaker.js

@@ -0,0 +1,106 @@
+/**
+ * OwnerSuspectBreaker — the per-peer circuit breaker behind the SessionRouter's
+ * `markOwnerSuspect` hook ("No Unbounded Loops" / P19).
+ *
+ * The router's forward path already had the SHAPE of a breaker: on delivery
+ * retry exhaustion it calls `markOwnerSuspect(owner)` before re-placing the
+ * message. But the hook was NEVER WIRED in production (the dep is optional and
+ * no implementation existed) — "constructed but inert". The consequence: every
+ * session owned by a slow-or-dead peer independently re-paid the full retry
+ * tax (3 attempts × backoff ≈ 4.5s+) per message, because `isMachineAlive`
+ * reads only capacity heartbeats, which a slow-but-alive peer keeps passing.
+ *
+ * This class is the wiring's missing half. Half-open TTL semantics:
+ *
+ *   markSuspect(peer)   — start/extend a suspect window (default 30s). The
+ *                         FIRST mark of an episode logs once; an episode
+ *                         sustained past signalAfterMs raises ONE degradation
+ *                         signal (per-peer FailureEpisodeLatch — P19 cond. 4).
+ *   isSuspect(peer)     — true inside the window. The composed isMachineAlive
+ *                         then short-circuits dispatches for ALL of that
+ *                         peer's sessions straight to the existing failover
+ *                         re-place path — no per-message retry tax repaid.
+ *   recordSuccess(peer) — a delivery reached the peer: window cleared,
+ *                         recovery logged once, latch re-armed.
+ *
+ *   After the TTL expires the breaker is HALF-OPEN: the next message tries the
+ *   peer for real (paying one retry cycle); success clears, failure re-marks.
+ *   The peer is never written off permanently — the TTL is the backoff, the
+ *   suspect state is the breaker, the per-message retry config is the cap.
+ *
+ * Deliberately POLICY-NEUTRAL: what happens to messages while a peer is
+ * suspect (today: the router's existing re-place path) is the wiring's choice
+ * — the queue-vs-replace stability policy is a separate operator decision
+ * <!-- tracked: CMT-1109 -->. Pure: injectable clock, per-peer bounded state.
+ */
+import { FailureEpisodeLatch } from './FailureEpisodeLatch.js';
+const DEFAULT_SUSPECT_TTL_MS = 30_000;
+const DEFAULT_SIGNAL_AFTER_MS = 10 * 60_000;
+export class OwnerSuspectBreaker {
+    ttlMs;
+    now;
+    opts;
+    /** Per-peer suspect-window end (ms epoch). Deleted on success. */
+    suspectUntil = new Map();
+    /** Per-peer episode accounting (created on first mark, deleted on success). */
+    episodes = new Map();
+    constructor(opts = {}) {
+        this.opts = opts;
+        this.ttlMs = opts.suspectTtlMs ?? DEFAULT_SUSPECT_TTL_MS;
+        this.now = opts.now ?? Date.now;
+    }
+    log(m) {
+        this.opts.logger?.(`[owner-suspect] ${m}`);
+    }
+    /** Delivery retries to this peer exhausted — open its suspect window.
+     *
+     * ABSOLUTE per-episode TTL: a mark that arrives while a window is ALREADY open
+     * does NOT push the window end forward. Otherwise a steady message stream
+     * arriving faster than the TTL would re-extend the window on every dispatch
+     * (each suspect dispatch re-enters dispatchOne's dead-owner branch, which
+     * re-calls markOwnerSuspect), so `isSuspect` would never go false at the
+     * moment a message arrives — the half-open re-probe (the ONLY path that ever
+     * re-attempts delivery and thus the ONLY path that can clear suspicion) would
+     * never be reached, leaving a fully-RECOVERED peer suspect forever and
+     * force-failing-over all its sessions on every message. The episode latch
+     * still records each mark (sustained-suspicion accounting), but the window
+     * end is fixed at the first mark of each TTL period. */
+    markSuspect(machineId) {
+        if (!this.isSuspect(machineId)) {
+            this.suspectUntil.set(machineId, this.now() + this.ttlMs);
+        }
+        let latch = this.episodes.get(machineId);
+        if (!latch) {
+            latch = new FailureEpisodeLatch({
+                signalAfterMs: this.opts.signalAfterMs ?? DEFAULT_SIGNAL_AFTER_MS,
+                now: this.now,
+            });
+            this.episodes.set(machineId, latch);
+        }
+        const f = latch.recordFailure();
+        if (f.firstOfEpisode) {
+            this.log(`owner ${machineId} SUSPECT (delivery retries exhausted) — short-circuiting its sessions' dispatches for ${Math.round(this.ttlMs / 1000)}s windows until a delivery succeeds`);
+        }
+        if (f.shouldSignal) {
+            this.log(`owner ${machineId} suspect for ${Math.round(f.failingForMs / 60_000)}min (${f.failures} marks) — signaling once; half-open re-probes continue`);
+            this.opts.reportSustained?.({ machineId, suspectForMs: f.failingForMs, marks: f.failures });
+        }
+    }
+    /** Inside an open suspect window? (Half-open after the TTL — callers re-probe.) */
+    isSuspect(machineId) {
+        const until = this.suspectUntil.get(machineId);
+        return until !== undefined && this.now() < until;
+    }
+    /** A delivery reached the peer — close the episode and re-arm. */
+    recordSuccess(machineId) {
+        this.suspectUntil.delete(machineId);
+        const latch = this.episodes.get(machineId);
+        if (latch) {
+            const s = latch.recordSuccess();
+            if (s.recovered)
+                this.log(`owner ${machineId} recovered after ${s.failures} suspect mark(s)`);
+            this.episodes.delete(machineId);
+        }
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=OwnerSuspectBreaker.js.map

package/dist/core/OwnerSuspectBreaker.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/core/PostUpdateMigrator.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/core/PostUpdateMigrator.js

@@ -2718,6 +2718,19 @@ Rule: I do not state that work landed inside another agent's state unless I have
             patched = true;
             result.upgraded.push('CLAUDE.md: added Session Boot Self-Knowledge section');
         }
+        // Learning-Velocity Metric (EXO 3.0 G5): forward-looking learning KPI.
+        // Existing agents need /metrics/learning-velocity awareness to answer
+        // "are we actually learning?". Content-sniffed on a distinctive marker.
+        if (!content.includes('Learning-Velocity Metric (EXO 3.0')) {
+            const learningVelocitySection = `
+**Learning-Velocity Metric (EXO 3.0).** Measures how fast you're *learning* (adaptability, experimentation, capability creation) rather than backward-looking operational throughput — Salim Ismail's KPI inversion ("your KPIs are training you to miss the future"). Read-only.
+- \`curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $AUTH" "http://localhost:${port}/metrics/learning-velocity?windowDays=30"\` → \`{ totalEvents, eventsPerDay, byType, typeDiversity, trend (accelerating/steady/declining/insufficient-data), adaptabilityScore (0-100), reason }\`. Gathers your real learning events (registered learnings, corrections, evolution actions).
+- **When to use** (PROACTIVE): when asked "are we actually learning / adapting?", or to contrast learning velocity against operational metrics. A flat/declining trend means the org may be optimizing the old model instead of learning.
+`;
+            content += '\n' + learningVelocitySection;
+            patched = true;
+            result.upgraded.push('CLAUDE.md: added Learning-Velocity Metric section');
+        }
         // Agent-Readiness Scoring (EXO 3.0 G2): the coordination-vs-judgment
         // diagnostic. Existing agents need to know /agent-readiness/score exists
         // before delegating work. Content-sniffed on a distinctive marker.
@@ -4392,6 +4405,10 @@ Create worktrees for collaborator repos with \`instar worktree create <branch>\`
             // never learns /passport/verify can't check a peer's proposed action
             // against its passport before trusting it.
             '**Agent Digital Passport (EXO 3.0',
+            // Learning-Velocity Metric (EXO 3.0 G5): the forward-looking learning
+            // KPI. A Codex/Gemini agent that never learns /metrics/learning-velocity
+            // can't answer "are we actually learning?" with real numbers.
+            '**Learning-Velocity Metric (EXO 3.0',
         ];
         for (const shadowName of ['AGENTS.md', 'GEMINI.md']) {
             const shadowPath = path.join(this.config.projectDir, shadowName);