hoi4-agent-tools 2.2.0 → 2.3.3

package/examples/probability/adaptive-event-sequence-input.json

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+{
+  "scenarioSet": {
+    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
+    "id": "pool_baseline",
+    "scenarios": [{ "id": "baseline", "state": {} }]
+  },
+  "customPoolManifest": {
+    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
+    "id": "adaptive_event_pool_example",
+    "selection": {
+      "mode": "categorical_weighted",
+      "cadence": "timer",
+      "timerMinDays": 45,
+      "timerMaxDays": 60,
+      "rounding": "nearest"
+    },
+    "state": { "minor_events_since_major": 0, "major_gain": 150 },
+    "candidates": [
+      { "id": "minor_repeatable", "category": "minor", "weight": 1000, "cap": 1000 },
+      { "id": "major_crisis", "category": "major", "weight": 0, "cap": 1000, "oneTime": true }
+    ],
+    "recovery": [
+      {
+        "cadence": "monthly",
+        "target": "candidate.minor_repeatable.weight",
+        "amount": 20,
+        "cap": "candidate.minor_repeatable.cap"
+      }
+    ],
+    "transitions": [
+      {
+        "when": "selected.category != major",
+        "actions": [
+          {
+            "operation": "add",
+            "target": "candidate.major_crisis.weight",
+            "value": "state.major_gain"
+          },
+          { "operation": "compress_timer", "target": "selection.timer_max_days", "value": 1 }
+        ]
+      },
+      {
+        "when": "selected.category == major",
+        "actions": [
+          { "operation": "reset_category", "target": "category.major", "value": 0 },
+          { "operation": "reset_timer", "target": "selection", "value": null }
+        ]
+      }
+    ]
+  },
+  "horizonDays": 720,
+  "maxSteps": 1000,
+  "samples": 250000,
+  "seed": 3601,
+  "confidenceLevel": 0.95,
+  "outputs": ["json", "ranking", "timing", "sequence", "unresolved"]
+}

package/examples/probability/event-mtth-scenarios.json

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+{
+  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
+  "id": "event_mtth_timeline_examples",
+  "surfaceHint": "event_mean_time_to_happen",
+  "scenarios": [
+    {
+      "id": "contained_outbreak",
+      "label": "Contained outbreak with later containment failure",
+      "actor": "EXM",
+      "date": "1940.1.1",
+      "state": {
+        "variable.outbreak_pressure": 25,
+        "variable.chaos": 350,
+        "has_war": false
+      },
+      "flags": ["outbreak_active", "containment_program_active"],
+      "schedule": [
+        {
+          "atDay": 60,
+          "set": { "variable.outbreak_pressure": 45 }
+        },
+        {
+          "atDay": 120,
+          "set": { "variable.chaos": 650 },
+          "clearFlags": ["containment_program_active"]
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "uncertain_pressure",
+      "label": "Pressure and war state sampled",
+      "actor": "EXM",
+      "date": "1940.1.1",
+      "state": { "variable.chaos": 500 },
+      "flags": ["outbreak_active"],
+      "uncertainInputs": [
+        {
+          "path": "variable.outbreak_pressure",
+          "distribution": {
+            "kind": "triangular",
+            "min": 20,
+            "mode": 50,
+            "max": 90
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "path": "has_war",
+          "distribution": {
+            "kind": "categorical",
+            "values": [true, false],
+            "probabilities": [0.35, 0.65]
+          }
+        }
+      ]
+    }
+  ]
+}

package/examples/probability/event-mtth-simulate-input.json

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+{
+  "adapter": "event_mean_time_to_happen",
+  "source": { "identifier": "example_outbreak.42" },
+  "scenarioSet": {
+    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
+    "id": "outbreak_simulation",
+    "surfaceHint": "event_mean_time_to_happen",
+    "scenarios": [
+      {
+        "id": "uncertain_pressure",
+        "actor": "EXM",
+        "date": "1940.1.1",
+        "state": { "variable.chaos": 500 },
+        "flags": ["outbreak_active"],
+        "uncertainInputs": [
+          {
+            "path": "variable.outbreak_pressure",
+            "distribution": { "kind": "triangular", "min": 20, "mode": 50, "max": 90 }
+          },
+          {
+            "path": "has_war",
+            "distribution": {
+              "kind": "categorical",
+              "values": [true, false],
+              "probabilities": [0.35, 0.65]
+            }
+          }
+        ]
+      }
+    ]
+  },
+  "horizonDays": 365,
+  "samples": 100000,
+  "seed": 19400101,
+  "confidenceLevel": 0.95,
+  "outputs": ["json", "timing", "waterfall", "unresolved"]
+}

package/examples/probability/focus-route-scenarios.json

@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+{
+  "schemaVersion": "1.0",
+  "id": "focus_route_choice_examples",
+  "surfaceHint": "national_focus_ai_will_do",
+  "description": "Representative country states for evaluating the next focus choice.",
+  "scenarios": [
+    {
+      "id": "peace_low_industry",
+      "label": "Peace with weak industry",
+      "actor": "EXM",
+      "date": "1938.1.1",
+      "state": {
+        "has_war": false,
+        "num_of_military_factories": 8,
+        "stability": 0.62,
+        "world_tension": 0.28,
+        "focus.external_factors_complete": true
+      },
+      "flags": ["route_independent"]
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "defensive_war",
+      "label": "Defensive war under pressure",
+      "actor": "EXM",
+      "date": "1939.9.1",
+      "state": {
+        "has_war": true,
+        "is_in_defensive_war": true,
+        "num_of_military_factories": 12,
+        "stability": 0.45,
+        "world_tension": 0.74,
+        "focus.external_factors_complete": true
+      },
+      "flags": ["route_independent", "border_crisis_active"]
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "uncertain_foreign_support",
+      "label": "Foreign support uncertain",
+      "actor": "EXM",
+      "date": "1939.3.1",
+      "state": {
+        "has_war": false,
+        "num_of_military_factories": 10,
+        "stability": 0.55,
+        "world_tension": 0.52,
+        "focus.external_factors_complete": true
+      },
+      "flags": ["route_independent"],
+      "uncertainInputs": [
+        {
+          "path": "has_flag.foreign_support_secured",
+          "alternatives": [true, false]
+        },
+        {
+          "path": "variable.foreign_influence",
+          "range": { "min": 20, "max": 80 }
+        }
+      ]
+    }
+  ]
+}

package/examples/probability/focus-route-sweep-input.json

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+{
+  "adapter": "national_focus_ai_will_do",
+  "source": { "identifier": "EXM_prepare_the_border" },
+  "scenarioSet": {
+    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
+    "id": "focus_route_sweep",
+    "surfaceHint": "national_focus_ai_will_do",
+    "scenarios": [
+      {
+        "id": "uncertain_foreign_support",
+        "actor": "EXM",
+        "date": "1939.3.1",
+        "state": {
+          "has_war": false,
+          "stability": 0.55,
+          "world_tension": 0.52,
+          "focus.external_factors_complete": true
+        },
+        "uncertainInputs": [
+          {
+            "path": "variable.foreign_influence",
+            "range": { "min": 20, "max": 80 }
+          }
+        ]
+      }
+    ]
+  },
+  "candidatePool": ["EXM_expand_industry", "EXM_prepare_the_border", "EXM_seek_foreign_support"],
+  "sweep": {
+    "paths": ["variable.foreign_influence"],
+    "steps": 25,
+    "pairwise": false,
+    "findRankReversals": true
+  },
+  "outputs": ["json", "ranking", "matrix", "waterfall", "sensitivity", "unresolved"]
+}

package/package.json

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 {
   "name": "hoi4-agent-tools",
   "mcpName": "io.github.klimPaskov/hoi4-agent-tools",
-  "version": "2.2.0",
-  "description": "Analyze HOI4 events and technology trees; create and clean focus trees, GUIs, and maps.",
+  "version": "2.3.3",
+  "description": "Analyze HOI4 events, tech trees, AI weights, and MTTH; build focus trees, GUIs, and maps.",
   "type": "module",
   "license": "Apache-2.0",
   "author": "HOI4 Agent Tools contributors",
@@ -24,6 +24,9 @@
     "event-chains",
     "technology-trees",
     "doctrines",
+    "ai-weights",
+    "mtth",
+    "probability-analysis",
     "hoi4-events",
     "scripted-gui",
     "hoi4-map"
@@ -37,11 +40,16 @@
     "docs/setup.md",
     "docs/events.md",
     "docs/technology.md",
+    "docs/probability.md",
+    "docs/research/probability-adapter-evidence.md",
     "docs/focus.md",
     "docs/gui.md",
     "docs/map.md",
     "docs/http.md",
     "docs/development.md",
+    "examples/clients/",
+    "examples/probability/",
+    "schemas/",
     "server.json",
     "README.md",
     "CHANGELOG.md",
@@ -66,12 +74,13 @@
     "test:local": "tsx scripts/run-local-tests.ts",
     "test:coverage": "vitest run --coverage",
     "benchmark": "node --expose-gc --import tsx scripts/benchmark.ts",
-    "fixtures:generate": "npm run fixtures:generate:focus && npm run fixtures:generate:gui && npm run fixtures:generate:map && npm run fixtures:generate:event && npm run fixtures:generate:technology",
+    "fixtures:generate": "npm run fixtures:generate:focus && npm run fixtures:generate:gui && npm run fixtures:generate:map && npm run fixtures:generate:event && npm run fixtures:generate:technology && npm run fixtures:generate:probability",
     "fixtures:generate:focus": "tsx scripts/generate-fixtures.ts",
     "fixtures:generate:gui": "tsx scripts/generate-gui-fixture.ts",
     "fixtures:generate:map": "tsx scripts/generate-map-fixture.ts",
     "fixtures:generate:event": "tsx scripts/generate-event-fixture.ts",
     "fixtures:generate:technology": "tsx scripts/generate-technology-fixture.ts",
+    "fixtures:generate:probability": "tsx scripts/generate-probability-fixture.ts",
     "fixtures:check": "npm run fixtures:generate && tsx scripts/check-generated.ts fixtures",
     "schemas:generate": "tsx scripts/generate-schemas.ts",
     "schemas:check": "tsx scripts/generate-schemas.ts && tsx scripts/check-generated.ts schemas",
@@ -92,13 +101,13 @@
     "fast-glob": "3.3.3",
     "fontkit": "2.0.4",
     "iconv-lite": "0.7.3",
-    "jose": "6.2.3",
+    "jose": "6.2.4",
     "sharp": "0.35.3",
     "zod": "4.4.3"
   },
   "devDependencies": {
     "@eslint/js": "10.0.1",
-    "@modelcontextprotocol/inspector": "0.22.0",
+    "@modelcontextprotocol/inspector": "1.0.0",
     "@types/express": "5.0.6",
     "@types/fontkit": "2.0.9",
     "@types/node": "22.20.1",
@@ -109,15 +118,17 @@
     "eslint": "10.7.0",
     "fast-check": "4.9.0",
     "pixelmatch": "7.2.0",
-    "prettier": "3.9.5",
-    "tsx": "4.23.0",
+    "prettier": "3.9.6",
+    "tsx": "4.23.1",
     "typescript": "6.0.3",
-    "typescript-eslint": "8.63.0",
+    "typescript-eslint": "8.65.0",
     "vitest": "4.1.10"
   },
   "overrides": {
     "@hono/node-server": "2.0.11",
+    "brace-expansion": "5.0.8",
     "fast-uri": "3.1.4",
+    "postcss": "8.5.23",
     "shell-quote": "1.10.0"
   },
   "publishConfig": {