heor-agent-mcp 0.9.6 → 0.9.10

package/README.md

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
 
 **AI-powered Health Economics and Outcomes Research (HEOR) agent as a Model Context Protocol server.**
 
-Automates literature review across 41 data sources, risk of bias assessment (RoB 2 / ROBINS-I / AMSTAR-2), state-of-the-art cost-effectiveness modelling, HTA dossier preparation for NICE / EMA / FDA / IQWiG / HAS / EU JCA, and a persistent project knowledge base — all callable as MCP tools from Claude.ai, Claude Code, and any MCP-compatible host.
+Automates literature review across 42 data sources, risk of bias assessment (RoB 2 / ROBINS-I / AMSTAR-2), state-of-the-art cost-effectiveness modelling, HTA dossier preparation for NICE / EMA / FDA / IQWiG / HAS / EU JCA, and a persistent project knowledge base — all callable as MCP tools from Claude.ai, Claude Code, and any MCP-compatible host.
 
 Built for pharmaceutical, biotech, CRO, and medical affairs teams who need rigorous, auditable HEOR workflows without building infrastructure from scratch.
 
@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ Add to your MCP configuration:
 
 | Tool | Purpose |
 |------|---------|
-| `literature_search` | Search 41 data sources with a full PRISMA-style audit trail |
+| `literature_search` | Search 42 data sources with a full PRISMA-style audit trail |
 | `screen_abstracts` | PICO-based relevance scoring and study design classification |
 | `risk_of_bias` | Cochrane RoB 2 / ROBINS-I / AMSTAR-2 with GRADE RoB domain summary |
 | `cost_effectiveness_model` | Markov / PartSA / decision-tree CEA with PSA, OWSA, CEAC, EVPI |
@@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ Add to your MCP configuration:
 
 ### `literature_search`
 
-Searches across 41 sources in parallel. Every call returns a **source selection table** showing which of the 41 sources were used and why — essential for HTA audit trails.
+Searches across 42 sources in parallel. Every call returns a **source selection table** showing which of the 42 sources were used and why — essential for HTA audit trails.
 
 **Example call:**
 ```json
@@ -197,15 +197,16 @@ This single prompt exercises: `project_create` → `literature_search` → `scre
 
 ## Data Sources
 
-**41 sources across 9 categories.** Every `literature_search` call includes a source selection table showing used/not-used status and reason for each.
+**42 sources across 9 categories.** Every `literature_search` call includes a source selection table showing used/not-used status and reason for each.
 
 <details>
-<summary><b>Biomedical & Clinical Trials (4)</b></summary>
+<summary><b>Biomedical & Clinical Trials (5)</b></summary>
 
 - **PubMed** — 35M+ biomedical citations (NCBI E-utilities)
 - **ClinicalTrials.gov** — NIH/NLM trial registry (CT.gov v2 API)
 - **bioRxiv / medRxiv** — Life sciences and medical preprints
 - **ChEMBL** — Drug bioactivity, mechanisms, ADMET (EMBL-EBI)
+- **Wiley Online Library** — Pharmacoeconomics, Health Economics, Journal of Medical Economics, Value in Health (CrossRef, ~77% abstract coverage, no key required)
 </details>
 
 <details>
@@ -292,7 +293,7 @@ DOCX files are saved to `~/.heor-agent/projects/{project}/reports/` (when a proj
 
 Every tool call returns a full audit record:
 
-- **Source selection table** — all 41 sources with used/not-used and reason
+- **Source selection table** — all 42 sources with used/not-used and reason
 - **Sources queried** — queries sent, response counts, status, latency
 - **Inclusions / exclusions** — counts with reasons
 - **Methodology** — PRISMA-style for literature, ISPOR/NICE for economics
@@ -400,7 +401,7 @@ npm run dev       # Run with tsx (no build step)
 │  │ 7 MCP tools (Zod-validated)          │ │
 │  ├──────────────────────────────────────┤ │
 │  │ DirectProvider (default)             │ │
-│  │   ├─ 41 source fetchers              │ │
+│  │   ├─ 42 source fetchers              │ │
 │  │   ├─ Audit builder + PRISMA trail    │ │
 │  │   ├─ Markov / PartSA economic models │ │
 │  │   ├─ Markdown + DOCX formatters      │ │

package/dist/data/eq5dValueSets.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,62 @@
+/**
+ * EQ-5D Value Set Reference Data
+ *
+ * Static reference data for the four value sets currently relevant to UK HTA submissions.
+ * Sources: EuroQol Group (euroqol.org) — value-set registry; Devlin et al. 2018
+ * Health Economics (England 5L); Dolan 1997 Medical Care (UK 3L MVH);
+ * Hernández Alava et al. 2022 NICE DSU (3L→5L mapping algorithm);
+ * NICE ECD16 position statement; OHE publications (ohe.org).
+ *
+ * Impact estimates from:
+ *   Biz A.N., Hernández Alava M., Wailoo A. (2026). Switching from EQ-5D-3L to EQ-5D-5L
+ *   in England: the impact in NICE technology appraisals. Value in Health (forthcoming).
+ *
+ * This data is PUBLIC knowledge about value sets — not derivative of the EQ-5D instrument
+ * itself (which is EuroQol trademark).
+ */
+export type ValueSetId = "uk_3l" | "england_5l" | "uk_5l_new" | "dsu_mapping";
+export interface ValueSet {
+    id: ValueSetId;
+    name: string;
+    country: string;
+    version: "3L" | "5L" | "mapped_3L";
+    valuation_year: number;
+    publication_year: number;
+    protocol: string;
+    methods: string[];
+    n_respondents: number;
+    n_states_valued: number;
+    full_health_value: number;
+    mildest_slight_state: number | null;
+    moderate_state_value: number;
+    worst_state_value: number;
+    pct_states_worse_than_dead: number;
+    dimension_weights: {
+        mobility: number;
+        self_care: number;
+        usual_activities: number;
+        pain_discomfort: number;
+        anxiety_depression: number;
+    };
+    nice_status: "current" | "superseded" | "consultation" | "interim" | "rejected";
+    reference_url: string;
+    notes: string;
+}
+export declare const EQ5D_VALUE_SETS: ValueSet[];
+export type IndicationType = "cancer_life_extending" | "non_cancer_life_extending" | "non_cancer_qol_only";
+export interface ImpactEstimate {
+    indication_type: IndicationType;
+    median_qaly_change_pct: number;
+    median_icer_change_pct: number;
+    direction: "more_cost_effective" | "less_cost_effective" | "mixed";
+    examples: string[];
+    caveat: string;
+}
+/**
+ * Anticipated impact of switching UK 3L (via DSU mapping) → new UK 5L value set.
+ * Source: Biz, Hernández Alava, Wailoo (2026) — 39 decisions across 37 NICE TAs.
+ */
+export declare const BIZ_2026_IMPACT: ImpactEstimate[];
+export declare function getValueSet(id: ValueSetId): ValueSet | undefined;
+export declare function getImpactEstimate(indication: IndicationType): ImpactEstimate | undefined;
+//# sourceMappingURL=eq5dValueSets.d.ts.map

package/dist/data/eq5dValueSets.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/data/eq5dValueSets.js

@@ -0,0 +1,171 @@
+/**
+ * EQ-5D Value Set Reference Data
+ *
+ * Static reference data for the four value sets currently relevant to UK HTA submissions.
+ * Sources: EuroQol Group (euroqol.org) — value-set registry; Devlin et al. 2018
+ * Health Economics (England 5L); Dolan 1997 Medical Care (UK 3L MVH);
+ * Hernández Alava et al. 2022 NICE DSU (3L→5L mapping algorithm);
+ * NICE ECD16 position statement; OHE publications (ohe.org).
+ *
+ * Impact estimates from:
+ *   Biz A.N., Hernández Alava M., Wailoo A. (2026). Switching from EQ-5D-3L to EQ-5D-5L
+ *   in England: the impact in NICE technology appraisals. Value in Health (forthcoming).
+ *
+ * This data is PUBLIC knowledge about value sets — not derivative of the EQ-5D instrument
+ * itself (which is EuroQol trademark).
+ */
+export const EQ5D_VALUE_SETS = [
+    {
+        id: "uk_3l",
+        name: "UK EQ-5D-3L (MVH)",
+        country: "United Kingdom",
+        version: "3L",
+        valuation_year: 1993,
+        publication_year: 1997,
+        protocol: "Measurement and Valuation of Health (MVH)",
+        methods: ["TTO"],
+        n_respondents: 2997,
+        n_states_valued: 45,
+        full_health_value: 1.0,
+        mildest_slight_state: null, // 3L has no "slight" level
+        moderate_state_value: 0.516, // state 22222
+        worst_state_value: -0.594, // state 33333
+        pct_states_worse_than_dead: 34.6,
+        dimension_weights: {
+            mobility: 25.2,
+            self_care: 17.2,
+            usual_activities: 7.6,
+            pain_discomfort: 31.0,
+            anxiety_depression: 19.0,
+        },
+        nice_status: "current",
+        reference_url: "https://doi.org/10.1097/00005650-199711000-00002",
+        notes: "Dolan 1997. Wide range (−0.594 to 1), bimodal distribution, 34.6% of states worse than dead. Current NICE-recommended set pending 2026 5L adoption.",
+    },
+    {
+        id: "england_5l",
+        name: "England EQ-5D-5L (Devlin)",
+        country: "England",
+        version: "5L",
+        valuation_year: 2012,
+        publication_year: 2018,
+        protocol: "EQ-VT v1.0",
+        methods: ["cTTO", "DCE"],
+        n_respondents: 996,
+        n_states_valued: 86,
+        full_health_value: 1.0,
+        mildest_slight_state: 0.95, // state 11211 / 12111
+        moderate_state_value: 0.593, // state 33333
+        worst_state_value: -0.285, // state 55555
+        pct_states_worse_than_dead: 5.1,
+        dimension_weights: {
+            mobility: 21.3,
+            self_care: 15.8,
+            usual_activities: 14.3,
+            pain_discomfort: 26.1,
+            anxiety_depression: 22.5,
+        },
+        nice_status: "rejected",
+        reference_url: "https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3564",
+        notes: "Devlin et al. 2018. Independent QA review flagged data and methods concerns; NICE did not adopt. Narrower range than UK 3L, only 5.1% of states worse than dead.",
+    },
+    {
+        id: "dsu_mapping",
+        name: "UK 3L via NICE DSU Mapping",
+        country: "United Kingdom",
+        version: "mapped_3L",
+        valuation_year: 2022,
+        publication_year: 2022,
+        protocol: "NICE DSU Mapping Algorithm (Hernández Alava 2022)",
+        methods: ["bespoke mixture copula (5L responses → 3L utilities)"],
+        n_respondents: 3551,
+        n_states_valued: 3125, // all 5L states mapped
+        full_health_value: 0.985, // reference: female aged 40
+        mildest_slight_state: 0.932,
+        moderate_state_value: 0.424, // state 33333 mapped
+        worst_state_value: -0.524, // state 55555 mapped
+        pct_states_worse_than_dead: 20.6,
+        dimension_weights: {
+            // DSU mapping is not a direct 5L value set — dimension weights are not reported
+            // at the instrument-level; use UK 3L weights as baseline.
+            mobility: 25.2,
+            self_care: 17.2,
+            usual_activities: 7.6,
+            pain_discomfort: 31.0,
+            anxiety_depression: 19.0,
+        },
+        nice_status: "interim",
+        reference_url: "https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/nice-dsu/tsds",
+        notes: "Hernández Alava et al. 2022. Interim NICE recommendation since 2022 — maps EQ-5D-5L responses to UK 3L utility space. Reference person is female aged 40. Being superseded by the new direct UK 5L value set (2026).",
+    },
+    {
+        id: "uk_5l_new",
+        name: "UK EQ-5D-5L (NEW 2026)",
+        country: "United Kingdom",
+        version: "5L",
+        valuation_year: 2023,
+        publication_year: 2026,
+        protocol: "EQ-VT v2.1",
+        methods: ["cTTO"],
+        n_respondents: 1200,
+        n_states_valued: 102,
+        full_health_value: 1.0,
+        mildest_slight_state: 0.968, // state 21111
+        moderate_state_value: 0.604, // state 33333
+        worst_state_value: -0.567, // state 55555
+        pct_states_worse_than_dead: 14.7,
+        dimension_weights: {
+            mobility: 17.8, // ↓ vs UK 3L
+            self_care: 13.1, // ↓ vs UK 3L
+            usual_activities: 13.5, // ↑ vs UK 3L
+            pain_discomfort: 30.6,
+            anxiety_depression: 25.0, // ↑ vs UK 3L
+        },
+        nice_status: "consultation",
+        reference_url: "https://www.nice.org.uk/corporate/ecd16",
+        notes: "NICE consultation 2026-04-15 to 2026-05-13. Similar range to UK 3L but symmetric distribution (not bimodal). Mild–moderate states have more compressed utilities. Usual activities and anxiety/depression relatively more important; mobility and self-care relatively less.",
+    },
+];
+/**
+ * Anticipated impact of switching UK 3L (via DSU mapping) → new UK 5L value set.
+ * Source: Biz, Hernández Alava, Wailoo (2026) — 39 decisions across 37 NICE TAs.
+ */
+export const BIZ_2026_IMPACT = [
+    {
+        indication_type: "cancer_life_extending",
+        median_qaly_change_pct: 13.7,
+        median_icer_change_pct: -12,
+        direction: "more_cost_effective",
+        examples: ["Oncology medicines with life-extending effect"],
+        caveat: "Driven by higher utility values for severe states under the new 5L set — larger QALY gains in end-of-life phases.",
+    },
+    {
+        indication_type: "non_cancer_life_extending",
+        median_qaly_change_pct: 0,
+        median_icer_change_pct: -9.6,
+        direction: "mixed",
+        examples: ["Heterogeneous — 7 of 11 cases saw ICER decrease"],
+        caveat: "Results were mixed; in most cases (7 of 11) ICERs decreased, with a median reduction of 9.6% across the category.",
+    },
+    {
+        indication_type: "non_cancer_qol_only",
+        median_qaly_change_pct: -37,
+        median_icer_change_pct: 59,
+        direction: "less_cost_effective",
+        examples: [
+            "Migraine",
+            "Ulcerative colitis",
+            "Atopic dermatitis",
+            "Hidradenitis suppurativa",
+            "Plaque psoriasis",
+        ],
+        caveat: "The new 5L set has compressed utility values in mild–moderate health states — the range patients typically occupy for chronic QoL-only conditions. This shrinks incremental QALY gains and raises ICERs sharply. Consider requesting NICE flexibilities (non-EQ-5D evidence where instrument is demonstrably inappropriate).",
+    },
+];
+export function getValueSet(id) {
+    return EQ5D_VALUE_SETS.find((v) => v.id === id);
+}
+export function getImpactEstimate(indication) {
+    return BIZ_2026_IMPACT.find((i) => i.indication_type === indication);
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=eq5dValueSets.js.map

package/dist/data/eq5dValueSets.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/formatters/comparisonMarkdown.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"comparisonMarkdown.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/formatters/comparisonMarkdown.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,wBAAwB,EAAE,MAAM,qBAAqB,CAAC;AAYpE,wBAAgB,oBAAoB,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,wBAAwB,GAAG,MAAM,CAqG7E"}

package/dist/formatters/comparisonMarkdown.js

@@ -39,9 +39,7 @@ export function comparisonToMarkdown(result) {
         lines.push(`| Comparison | ${label} | 95% CI | p-value | Via | Method |`);
         lines.push("|------------|---------|--------|---------|-----|--------|");
         for (const e of estimates) {
-            const est = measure === "MD"
-                ? formatNum(e.estimate)
-                : formatNum(e.estimate);
+            const est = measure === "MD" ? formatNum(e.estimate) : formatNum(e.estimate);
             const ci = `[${formatNum(e.ci_lower)}, ${formatNum(e.ci_upper)}]`;
             const p = formatP(e.p_value);
             const via = e.commonComparator;
@@ -50,6 +48,24 @@ export function comparisonToMarkdown(result) {
         }
         lines.push("");
     }
+    // Heterogeneity statistics (I², Cochran Q)
+    if (result.heterogeneity && result.heterogeneity.length > 0) {
+        lines.push("### Heterogeneity Statistics");
+        lines.push(`Per-comparison heterogeneity across trials of the same pair/outcome/measure. Interpretation bands per Cochrane Handbook Ch. 10.10.`);
+        lines.push("");
+        lines.push(`| Comparison | k | Cochran Q | df | p-value | I² (%) | τ² | Interpretation |`);
+        lines.push(`|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|`);
+        for (const h of result.heterogeneity) {
+            lines.push(`| ${h.comparison_label} | ${h.n_studies} | ${h.cochran_q.toFixed(2)} | ${h.df} | ${h.p_value.toFixed(4)} | ${h.i_squared_pct.toFixed(1)} | ${h.tau_squared.toFixed(4)} | ${h.interpretation_band} |`);
+        }
+        const anyHigh = result.heterogeneity.some((h) => h.interpretation === "substantial" ||
+            h.interpretation === "considerable");
+        if (anyHigh) {
+            lines.push("");
+            lines.push(`> ⚠️ Substantial or considerable heterogeneity detected in at least one comparison. Consider subgroup analysis, meta-regression, or random-effects pooling. Investigate effect modifiers via \`itc_feasibility\`.`);
+        }
+        lines.push("");
+    }
     // Warnings
     if (result.warnings.length > 0) {
         lines.push("### Warnings");

package/dist/formatters/comparisonMarkdown.js.map

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package/dist/network/heterogeneity.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
+/**
+ * Heterogeneity statistics for meta-analysis / network meta-analysis.
+ *
+ * Implements Cochran's Q, I², τ² (DerSimonian-Laird), and Cochrane-standard
+ * interpretation bands. Pure functions — no side effects.
+ *
+ * References:
+ * - Higgins JPT, Thompson SG. Quantifying heterogeneity in a meta-analysis.
+ *   Stat Med. 2002;21:1539-1558.
+ * - Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions, Chapter 10.10.
+ */
+export interface StudyEffect {
+    /** Point estimate of the treatment effect (log-scale for OR/HR/RR). */
+    estimate: number;
+    /** Standard error of the estimate. */
+    se: number;
+}
+export interface HeterogeneityResult {
+    /** Cochran's Q test statistic. */
+    cochran_q: number;
+    /** Degrees of freedom (k - 1). */
+    df: number;
+    /** Two-sided p-value for H0: no heterogeneity. */
+    p_value: number;
+    /** I² statistic as percentage (0-100). */
+    i_squared_pct: number;
+    /** Between-study variance (DerSimonian-Laird estimator). */
+    tau_squared: number;
+    /** Cochrane interpretation: might_not_be_important / moderate / substantial / considerable. */
+    interpretation: "might_not_be_important" | "moderate" | "substantial" | "considerable";
+    /** Human-readable interpretation label with band. */
+    interpretation_band: string;
+    /** Number of studies included in the calculation. */
+    n_studies: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Compute Cochran's Q statistic.
+ *
+ * Q = Σ w_i * (y_i - ȳ)²,   where w_i = 1 / SE_i², ȳ = Σ(w_i * y_i) / Σ w_i
+ *
+ * Under H0 (homogeneity), Q ~ χ²(k-1).
+ */
+export declare function cochranQ(effects: StudyEffect[]): {
+    q: number;
+    df: number;
+    weighted_mean: number;
+};
+/**
+ * I² statistic.
+ *
+ *   I² = max(0, 100% × (Q − df) / Q)
+ */
+export declare function iSquared(q: number, df: number): number;
+/**
+ * DerSimonian-Laird between-study variance τ².
+ *
+ *   τ² = max(0, (Q − df) / (Σw_i − Σw_i² / Σw_i))
+ */
+export declare function tauSquared(effects: StudyEffect[], q: number, df: number): number;
+/**
+ * Upper-tail probability of χ²(df) evaluated at q.
+ *
+ * Uses a series approximation for the regularised upper incomplete gamma function.
+ * Accurate to ~1e-6 for typical meta-analysis Q values (df < 100, q < 200).
+ */
+export declare function chiSquaredPValue(q: number, df: number): number;
+/**
+ * Compute the full heterogeneity summary for a set of study effect estimates.
+ *
+ * Returns zeros and "might_not_be_important" when fewer than 2 studies.
+ */
+export declare function computeHeterogeneity(effects: StudyEffect[]): HeterogeneityResult;
+//# sourceMappingURL=heterogeneity.d.ts.map

package/dist/network/heterogeneity.d.ts.map

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package/dist/network/heterogeneity.js

@@ -0,0 +1,185 @@
+/**
+ * Heterogeneity statistics for meta-analysis / network meta-analysis.
+ *
+ * Implements Cochran's Q, I², τ² (DerSimonian-Laird), and Cochrane-standard
+ * interpretation bands. Pure functions — no side effects.
+ *
+ * References:
+ * - Higgins JPT, Thompson SG. Quantifying heterogeneity in a meta-analysis.
+ *   Stat Med. 2002;21:1539-1558.
+ * - Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions, Chapter 10.10.
+ */
+/**
+ * Compute Cochran's Q statistic.
+ *
+ * Q = Σ w_i * (y_i - ȳ)²,   where w_i = 1 / SE_i², ȳ = Σ(w_i * y_i) / Σ w_i
+ *
+ * Under H0 (homogeneity), Q ~ χ²(k-1).
+ */
+export function cochranQ(effects) {
+    if (effects.length < 2) {
+        return { q: 0, df: 0, weighted_mean: effects[0]?.estimate ?? 0 };
+    }
+    const weights = effects.map((e) => 1 / (e.se * e.se));
+    const sumW = weights.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
+    const weighted_mean = effects.reduce((acc, e, i) => acc + weights[i] * e.estimate, 0) / sumW;
+    const q = effects.reduce((acc, e, i) => acc + weights[i] * (e.estimate - weighted_mean) * (e.estimate - weighted_mean), 0);
+    return { q, df: effects.length - 1, weighted_mean };
+}
+/**
+ * I² statistic.
+ *
+ *   I² = max(0, 100% × (Q − df) / Q)
+ */
+export function iSquared(q, df) {
+    if (q <= 0 || df <= 0)
+        return 0;
+    return Math.max(0, (100 * (q - df)) / q);
+}
+/**
+ * DerSimonian-Laird between-study variance τ².
+ *
+ *   τ² = max(0, (Q − df) / (Σw_i − Σw_i² / Σw_i))
+ */
+export function tauSquared(effects, q, df) {
+    if (effects.length < 2 || q <= df)
+        return 0;
+    const weights = effects.map((e) => 1 / (e.se * e.se));
+    const sumW = weights.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
+    const sumW2 = weights.reduce((a, b) => a + b * b, 0);
+    const c = sumW - sumW2 / sumW;
+    if (c <= 0)
+        return 0;
+    return Math.max(0, (q - df) / c);
+}
+/**
+ * Upper-tail probability of χ²(df) evaluated at q.
+ *
+ * Uses a series approximation for the regularised upper incomplete gamma function.
+ * Accurate to ~1e-6 for typical meta-analysis Q values (df < 100, q < 200).
+ */
+export function chiSquaredPValue(q, df) {
+    if (df <= 0 || q <= 0)
+        return 1;
+    // P(Q > q) = 1 - regularized_lower_gamma(df/2, q/2)
+    const a = df / 2;
+    const x = q / 2;
+    // Use series for x < a + 1, continued fraction otherwise (Numerical Recipes)
+    if (x < a + 1) {
+        // Series expansion of P(a, x)
+        let term = 1 / a;
+        let sum = term;
+        for (let n = 1; n < 200; n++) {
+            term *= x / (a + n);
+            sum += term;
+            if (Math.abs(term) < Math.abs(sum) * 1e-10)
+                break;
+        }
+        const lowerIncomplete = sum * Math.exp(-x + a * Math.log(x) - logGamma(a));
+        return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, 1 - lowerIncomplete));
+    }
+    else {
+        // Continued fraction for Q(a, x) directly
+        const FPMIN = 1e-300;
+        let b = x + 1 - a;
+        let c = 1 / FPMIN;
+        let d = 1 / b;
+        let h = d;
+        for (let n = 1; n < 200; n++) {
+            const an = -n * (n - a);
+            b += 2;
+            d = an * d + b;
+            if (Math.abs(d) < FPMIN)
+                d = FPMIN;
+            c = b + an / c;
+            if (Math.abs(c) < FPMIN)
+                c = FPMIN;
+            d = 1 / d;
+            const delta = d * c;
+            h *= delta;
+            if (Math.abs(delta - 1) < 1e-10)
+                break;
+        }
+        const upperIncomplete = h * Math.exp(-x + a * Math.log(x) - logGamma(a));
+        return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, upperIncomplete));
+    }
+}
+function logGamma(x) {
+    // Lanczos approximation
+    const g = 7;
+    const c = [
+        0.99999999999980993, 676.5203681218851, -1259.1392167224028,
+        771.32342877765313, -176.61502916214059, 12.507343278686905,
+        -0.13857109526572012, 9.9843695780195716e-6, 1.5056327351493116e-7,
+    ];
+    if (x < 0.5) {
+        return Math.log(Math.PI / Math.sin(Math.PI * x)) - logGamma(1 - x);
+    }
+    x -= 1;
+    let a = c[0];
+    const t = x + g + 0.5;
+    for (let i = 1; i < c.length; i++) {
+        a += c[i] / (x + i);
+    }
+    return 0.5 * Math.log(2 * Math.PI) + (x + 0.5) * Math.log(t) - t + Math.log(a);
+}
+function interpretI2(i2) {
+    if (i2 < 30) {
+        return {
+            interpretation: "might_not_be_important",
+            interpretation_band: "0–40% → might not be important",
+        };
+    }
+    if (i2 < 50) {
+        return {
+            interpretation: "moderate",
+            interpretation_band: "30–60% → moderate heterogeneity",
+        };
+    }
+    if (i2 < 75) {
+        return {
+            interpretation: "substantial",
+            interpretation_band: "50–90% → substantial heterogeneity",
+        };
+    }
+    return {
+        interpretation: "considerable",
+        interpretation_band: "75–100% → considerable heterogeneity",
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Compute the full heterogeneity summary for a set of study effect estimates.
+ *
+ * Returns zeros and "might_not_be_important" when fewer than 2 studies.
+ */
+export function computeHeterogeneity(effects) {
+    const n = effects.length;
+    if (n < 2) {
+        return {
+            cochran_q: 0,
+            df: 0,
+            p_value: 1,
+            i_squared_pct: 0,
+            tau_squared: 0,
+            interpretation: "might_not_be_important",
+            interpretation_band: "insufficient studies (n < 2)",
+            n_studies: n,
+        };
+    }
+    const { q, df } = cochranQ(effects);
+    const i2 = iSquared(q, df);
+    const tau2 = tauSquared(effects, q, df);
+    const p = chiSquaredPValue(q, df);
+    const { interpretation, interpretation_band } = interpretI2(i2);
+    return {
+        cochran_q: q,
+        df,
+        p_value: p,
+        i_squared_pct: i2,
+        tau_squared: tau2,
+        interpretation,
+        interpretation_band,
+        n_studies: n,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=heterogeneity.js.map

package/dist/network/heterogeneity.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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