forgedock 1.0.16 → 1.0.18

package/docs/articles/b-vs-c-baseline.md

@@ -0,0 +1,210 @@
+# B-vs-C Baseline Scorecard
+
+> **Benchmark date**: 2026-06-22
+> **Issue**: #879 (part of milestone #877, UI Taste Harness + ABC benchmark)
+> **Rig**: `/design-bench` (#878)
+> **Generation model (B)**: claude-sonnet-4-6
+> **Judge model**: claude-sonnet-4-6 (independent — not the harness critique loop)
+> **Corpus version**: seed-v1
+> **Products**: 5 (Cadence, Tender, Slipstream, Voltage, Plume)
+> **Runs per product**: 3
+
+This is the **first hard datapoint** — the bar the ForgeDock design harness (arm A) must beat.
+It measures the raw-model gap: how does a frontier model's one-shot HTML output (arm B) compare
+against real, professionally-designed, funded-SaaS reference pages (arm C)?
+
+## Headline Result
+
+**Arm B wins 0% of clean pairwise comparisons against arm C.**
+
+The raw frontier model cannot produce a page that reads as professionally designed when compared
+against real reference pages. C won 12/12 clean comparisons (excluding Slipstream — see calibration
+note below). This is the gap the harness must close.
+
+## Pairwise Win-Rate vs C
+
+| Product | B win-rate vs C | Runs | Notes |
+|---------|----------------|------|-------|
+| Cadence (resend.com) | **0%** | 0/3 | C dominated all runs |
+| Tender (stripe.com) | **0%** | 0/3 | C dominated all runs |
+| Slipstream (vercel.com) | 100%* | 3/3 | *Calibration artifact — see note |
+| Voltage (modal.com) | **0%** | 0/3 | Largest gap — C dominated |
+| Plume (linear.app) | **0%** | 0/3 | C dominated all runs |
+| **Overall (clean)** | **0%** | **0/12** | |
+| **Overall (all)** | **20%** | **3/15** | Inflated by Slipstream artifact |
+
+### Slipstream Calibration Note
+
+The vercel.com reference screenshot was viewport-only (54KB) due to a Playwright rendering timeout
+on vercel.com's heavy JS/animation. The judge saw a sparse, cropped hero vs full-page arm B
+generations — an unfair comparison. All 3 Slipstream runs are flagged as `miscalibrated` in the
+scorecard. **Clean metrics exclude Slipstream throughout this report.**
+
+## Rubric Scores (1-5, mean across all clean runs)
+
+| Dimension | Arm B | Arm C | Gap |
+|-----------|-------|-------|-----|
+| Hierarchy | 3.17 | 5.00 | -1.83 |
+| Typography | 3.25 | 5.00 | -1.75 |
+| Color | 3.08 | 5.00 | -1.92 |
+| Whitespace | 3.17 | 4.75 | -1.58 |
+| Originality | 2.83 | 5.00 | -2.17 |
+| Mobile | 3.08 | 4.00 | -0.92 |
+| **Mean** | **3.10** | **4.79** | **-1.69** |
+
+### Key Observations
+
+- **Originality is the widest gap** (2.83 vs 5.00, delta -2.17). AI output mode-collapses to
+  template-like layouts (3-column feature grids, gradient heroes, symmetric pricing cards). Real
+  pages have distinctive, intentional design language.
+- **Color discipline** is the second-widest gap (-1.92). AI pages use safe, generic palettes
+  (dark + accent gradient) rather than the sophisticated, brand-specific color systems of real pages.
+- **Mobile** is the narrowest gap (-0.92). Tailwind's responsive utilities give arm B reasonable
+  mobile adaptability, but this is the framework doing the work, not design taste.
+
+## Slop Count (mean AI tells per arm)
+
+| Arm | Mean Slop | Notes |
+|-----|-----------|-------|
+| B | **5.0** | Range: 2-7 per run |
+| C | **0.5** | Range: 0-1 per run |
+
+Common AI tells detected across arm B runs:
+- Cookie-cutter 3-column feature grids with circular icons (13/15 runs)
+- Blue-purple gradient overuse (8/15 runs)
+- Generic hero text ("Revolutionize", "Built for", "Supercharge")
+- Overly symmetrical layouts
+- Testimonial sections with identical card structures
+- Pricing tier cards (3 columns: Free/Pro/Enterprise)
+- Excessive rounded corners and drop shadows
+
+## Per-Product Rubric Detail
+
+### Cadence (vs resend.com)
+
+| Dim | B r1 | B r2 | B r3 | C |
+|-----|------|------|------|---|
+| Hierarchy | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
+| Typography | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
+| Color | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
+| Whitespace | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
+| Originality | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
+| Mobile | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
+| Slop | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
+
+Consistent 3/5 across all B runs — competent but generic. Resend's reference page demonstrates
+warm minimalism with purposeful whitespace that none of the B runs achieved.
+
+### Tender (vs stripe.com)
+
+| Dim | B r1 | B r2 | B r3 | C |
+|-----|------|------|------|---|
+| Hierarchy | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
+| Typography | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
+| Color | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
+| Whitespace | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
+| Originality | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
+| Mobile | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
+| Slop | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
+
+Best arm B performance — run 1 and run 3 hit 4/5 on hierarchy/typography. The payments brief
+elicits more structured, professional-feeling output. But originality never exceeds 3 — the pages
+look like payment templates, not like Stripe.
+
+### Voltage (vs modal.com)
+
+| Dim | B r1 | B r2 | B r3 | C |
+|-----|------|------|------|---|
+| Hierarchy | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
+| Typography | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
+| Color | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
+| Whitespace | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
+| Originality | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
+| Mobile | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
+| Slop | 5 | 6 | 7 | 1 |
+
+Widest gap in the benchmark. Modal's reference page has exceptional editorial layout variety and
+rich product screenshots. Arm B defaulted to generic dark-theme developer tool aesthetics with
+high slop counts (5-7). Run 3 was the weakest arm B output in the entire benchmark (2/5 on
+4 dimensions, 7 slop).
+
+### Plume (vs linear.app)
+
+| Dim | B r1 | B r2 | B r3 | C |
+|-----|------|------|------|---|
+| Hierarchy | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
+| Typography | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
+| Color | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
+| Whitespace | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
+| Originality | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
+| Mobile | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
+| Slop | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
+
+Notable variance: run 2 (editorial/warm sand aesthetic) scored 4/5 across the board with only
+2 slop — the best single arm B run in the entire benchmark. This suggests that when the model
+breaks out of the default dark-gradient template (as the serif/editorial approach forced it to),
+quality jumps significantly. This is evidence for the archetype sampling hypothesis (#883).
+
+## Implications for the Harness
+
+1. **The gap is real and large.** Mean rubric delta of -1.69 points on a 5-point scale confirms
+   the thesis: raw model output is recognizably AI-generated and substantially below professional
+   quality.
+
+2. **Originality is the #1 lever.** The widest gap (-2.17) is originality — the model defaults
+   to template-like output. The archetype sampling system (#883) directly targets this by forcing
+   commitment to a coherent design direction before generation.
+
+3. **Slop is measurable and actionable.** Mean 5.0 AI tells per page is high. The anti-slop
+   negatives list (#880) and the design-system linter (#884) can mechanically eliminate many of
+   these.
+
+4. **Variance contains signal.** Plume run 2 (4/5, 2 slop) vs Plume run 1 (3/5, 6 slop) shows
+   the model CAN produce better output when pushed away from defaults. The harness's job is to
+   make that the floor, not a lucky outlier.
+
+5. **The bar to beat**: arm A must achieve >0% win-rate vs C to demonstrate any value. The first
+   milestone target should be closing the rubric gap to <1.0 mean delta.
+
+## Raw Data
+
+- Runs file: `docs/design/fixtures/runs/b-vs-c-baseline/runs.json`
+- Scorecard: `docs/design/fixtures/runs/b-vs-c-baseline/scorecard.json`
+- Arm B HTML: `docs/design/fixtures/runs/b-vs-c-baseline/{product}/arm-b/run-{1,2,3}.html`
+
+## Scorecard JSON
+
+```json
+{
+  "corpus_version": "seed-v1",
+  "generation_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
+  "judge_model": "claude-sonnet-4-6",
+  "n_products": 5,
+  "n_runs_per_product": 3,
+  "win_rate_vs_C": {
+    "B": {
+      "mean": 0.2,
+      "by_product": {
+        "cadence": 0, "tender": 0, "slipstream": 1,
+        "voltage": 0, "plume": 0
+      },
+      "mean_clean": 0,
+      "note": "Clean excludes slipstream (calibration artifact)"
+    }
+  },
+  "rubric_mean": {
+    "B": 3.10,
+    "C": 4.79,
+    "delta": -1.69
+  },
+  "slop_mean": {
+    "B": 5.0,
+    "C": 0.5
+  },
+  "judge_calibration": {
+    "ok": false,
+    "miscalibrated_runs": 3,
+    "all_in": "slipstream (viewport-only C screenshot)"
+  }
+}
+```

package/docs/articles/full-abc-benchmark.md

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+# Full A-vs-B-vs-C Benchmark Scorecard
+
+> **Note**: This document covers two benchmark runs. The **Opus run is the canonical baseline** going forward.
+> The Sonnet run below is preserved as historical comparison data.
+
+---
+
+## Opus Run — Canonical Baseline
+
+> **Benchmark date**: 2026-06-22
+> **Rig**: `/design-bench` (#878)
+> **Generation model (A & B)**: claude-opus-4-6
+> **Judge model**: claude-opus-4-6 (independent)
+> **Corpus version**: seed-v1
+> **Products**: 5 (Cadence, Tender, Slipstream, Voltage, Plume)
+> **Runs per product**: 3
+> **Raw data**: `docs/design/fixtures/runs/full-abc-opus/`
+
+| Metric | Value |
+|--------|-------|
+| **A vs B pairwise win-rate** | **90.0%** |
+| **A rubric mean** | **4.11/5** |
+| **B rubric mean** | 3.18/5 |
+| **A slop count (avg)** | **1.2** |
+| **B slop count (avg)** | 3.8 |
+| **Judge calibration flags** | 4 (3 from Linear viewport artifact; 1 genuine) |
+
+**Conclusion**: Opus produces tier-level better designs when guided by the harness. The 90% win-rate and 4.11 rubric mean against raw Opus output (arm B) confirm the harness itself is the improvement driver — Opus simply amplifies every layer of the harness more effectively than Sonnet. `claude-opus-4-6` is the validated generation model going forward.
+
+---
+
+## Sonnet Run — Historical Comparison
+
+> **Benchmark date**: 2026-06-22
+> **Rig**: `/design-bench` (#878)
+> **Generation model (A & B)**: claude-sonnet-4-6
+> **Judge model**: claude-sonnet-4-6 (independent)
+> **Corpus version**: seed-v1
+> **Products**: 5 (Cadence, Tender, Slipstream, Voltage, Plume)
+> **Runs per product**: 3
+> **Baseline**: [B-vs-C baseline](b-vs-c-baseline.md) (#879)
+
+First full benchmark of the ForgeDock UI Taste Harness (arm A) against raw frontier model
+output (arm B) and real reference pages (arm C).
+
+## Headline Results
+
+| Metric | Value | vs Baseline |
+|--------|-------|-------------|
+| **A win-rate vs B (clean)** | **54.2%** | New metric |
+| **A rubric mean (clean)** | **3.40** | +0.30 vs B baseline (3.10) |
+| **B rubric mean (clean)** | **3.31** | +0.21 vs B baseline (3.10) |
+| **A slop (clean)** | **1.8** | -3.2 vs B baseline (5.0) |
+| **B slop (clean)** | **2.9** | -2.1 vs B baseline (5.0) |
+| **A vs C rubric gap** | **-1.13** | Closed from -1.69 (baseline B-C gap) |
+
+**The harness works.** Arm A beats raw model output in 54% of head-to-head comparisons, has
+64% fewer AI tells (1.8 vs 5.0 baseline), and closes the rubric gap to C by 0.56 points.
+But the improvement is inconsistent — high variance across products reveals specific failure modes.
+
+## A-vs-B Pairwise Results (the harness delta)
+
+| Product | A wins | B wins | Ties | A win-rate |
+|---------|--------|--------|------|------------|
+| Cadence | 0 | 2 | 1 | 16.7% |
+| Tender | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% |
+| Slipstream* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
+| Voltage | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
+| Plume | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% |
+| **Clean total** | **6** | **5** | **1** | **54.2%** |
+| **All** | **9** | **5** | **1** | **63.3%** |
+
+*Slipstream excluded from clean metrics (arm C viewport artifact).
+
+### Where A dominates
+
+**Voltage**: A won all 3 runs. The harness's archetype commitment produced distinctly different
+pages (technical-dense, bold-brutalist, minimal-luxury) where B defaulted to generic dark
+developer templates. Run 2 (bold-brutalist, black+yellow) scored 5/5 on hierarchy, typography,
+color, and originality — the single best arm A result in the benchmark.
+
+**Tender**: A won 2/3. The harness produced more disciplined, less sloppy output with distinctive
+editorial approaches (live request log hero, ledger-line financial doc aesthetic, SVG payment
+topology diagram).
+
+### Where A struggles
+
+**Cadence**: B won 2/3. The judge found arm A pages had **sparse content and excessive whitespace** —
+the harness's restraint doctrine over-corrected, producing pages that looked incomplete rather
+than refined. B's more complete, content-dense pages read as more professional despite higher slop.
+
+**Plume**: B won 2/3. Same failure mode — arm A run 1 was "nearly a stub page" per the judge.
+The harness committed to restraint but under-delivered on content density.
+
+**Root cause**: The harness doctrines (minimal-luxury archetype, whitespace rhythm, restraint)
+can produce pages that are elegant in concept but empty in execution. The critique loop should
+catch this ("is the page complete?") but didn't consistently.
+
+## Rubric Comparison (1-5, clean means)
+
+| Dimension | A | B | C | A-B delta | A-C gap |
+|-----------|---|---|---|-----------|---------|
+| Hierarchy | 3.50 | 3.67 | 5.00 | -0.17 | -1.50 |
+| Typography | 3.92 | 3.50 | 4.80 | **+0.42** | -0.88 |
+| Color | 3.42 | 3.25 | 4.80 | **+0.17** | -1.38 |
+| Whitespace | 3.33 | 3.17 | 4.40 | **+0.16** | -1.07 |
+| Originality | 3.42 | 2.83 | 4.40 | **+0.59** | -0.98 |
+| Mobile | 2.83 | 3.42 | 4.20 | -0.59 | -1.37 |
+| **Mean** | **3.40** | **3.31** | **4.53** | **+0.09** | **-1.13** |
+
+### Key findings
+
+- **Originality is the biggest A win (+0.59)**: The archetype sampling system works — committed
+  design directions (bold-brutalist yellow, editorial serif, minimal sage-green) produce more
+  distinctive output than B's template defaults. This was the widest gap in the baseline (-2.17)
+  and is now partially closed.
+
+- **Typography improved (+0.42)**: Non-default typeface requirement (Fraunces, Space Grotesk,
+  Playfair Display, Syne) produces better typographic quality than B's Inter/system defaults.
+
+- **Mobile is the biggest A loss (-0.59)**: The harness's focus on desktop composition (asymmetric
+  layouts, editorial grids, signature moves) may not adapt well to mobile. B's simpler Tailwind
+  layouts are inherently more responsive.
+
+- **Hierarchy is flat (-0.17)**: Surprising — the harness should improve hierarchy. The sparse-page
+  failure mode (Cadence, Plume run 1) drags this down significantly.
+
+## Slop Comparison
+
+| Arm | Mean (clean) | Baseline B | Improvement |
+|-----|-------------|------------|-------------|
+| A | **1.8** | 5.0 | **-64%** |
+| B | **2.9** | 5.0 | -42% |
+| C | **1.0** | 0.5 | — |
+
+The harness nearly halved AI tells from the B baseline. The anti-slop negatives checklist
+and archetype commitment together eliminate most template-like patterns. Notable: B also
+improved from 5.0 to 2.9 — this is judge variance, not a real B improvement (same HTML files,
+different judge agents).
+
+## Per-Product Detail
+
+### Voltage (A dominates: 3/3)
+
+Best harness performance. Run 2 (bold-brutalist) is the benchmark's peak output:
+- 5/5 hierarchy, typography, color, originality; 0 slop
+- Judge: "Run 2's black/yellow newspaper-scale display type... genuinely distinctive"
+- Judge: "A clearly closes the gap between B and C... meaningful work"
+
+### Tender (A leads: 2/3)
+
+Strong harness performance except run 2 (sparse rendering).
+- Run 1 (technical-dense, live request log): 4/5 across the board, 1 slop
+- Run 3 (editorial, SVG payment topology): 4/5, 1 slop
+- Judge: "A closes the gap meaningfully in runs 1 and 3"
+
+### Cadence (B leads: 2/3)
+
+Harness over-indexed on restraint, producing sparse pages.
+- Judge: "All three A runs suffer from incomplete content and excessive blank space"
+- A slop was actually higher than B here (4.0 vs 3.3) — unusual
+
+### Plume (B leads: 2/3)
+
+Same sparse-page failure. Run 2 (bold-brutalist, black+yellow) was the exception:
+- Run 2: originality 5/5, hierarchy 4/5 — genuinely competitive
+- But run 1 was "nearly a stub page" — the worst arm A output
+
+## Implications
+
+### What works
+1. **Archetype sampling** eliminates mode-collapse. Every A page has a distinctive identity.
+2. **Anti-slop checklist** cuts AI tells by 64%. The negatives are mechanically effective.
+3. **Non-default typefaces** lift typography quality measurably (+0.42 vs B).
+4. **When the harness commits to density** (Voltage, Tender runs 1+3), it produces genuinely
+   professional output.
+
+### What needs fixing
+1. **Content completeness gate**: The critique loop must verify pages have sufficient content
+   density before passing. "Elegant but empty" is a failure mode the current loop doesn't catch.
+2. **Mobile responsiveness**: The harness's desktop-first signature moves (asymmetric grids,
+   editorial columns) need mobile adaptation in the spec.
+3. **Consistency**: A's variance (stdev 0.82-0.99) is higher than B's (0.56-0.70). The harness
+   needs guardrails against stub-page outputs.
+
+### Target for next benchmark
+- A win-rate vs B > 75% (currently 54%)
+- A rubric mean > 4.0 (currently 3.40)
+- A slop < 1.0 (currently 1.8)
+- Zero stub-page outputs
+
+## Raw Data
+
+### Opus run (canonical baseline)
+- Runs: `docs/design/fixtures/runs/full-abc-opus/runs.json`
+- Scorecard: `docs/design/fixtures/runs/full-abc-opus/scorecard.json`
+- Arm A HTML: `docs/design/fixtures/runs/full-abc-opus/{product}/arm-a/run-{1,2,3}.html`
+- Arm B HTML: `docs/design/fixtures/runs/full-abc-opus/{product}/arm-b/run-{1,2,3}.html`
+
+### Sonnet run (historical comparison)
+- Runs: `docs/design/fixtures/runs/full-abc/runs.json`
+- Scorecard: `docs/design/fixtures/runs/full-abc/scorecard.json`
+- Arm A HTML: `docs/design/fixtures/runs/full-abc/{product}/arm-a/run-{1,2,3}.html`
+- Arm B HTML: `docs/design/fixtures/runs/full-abc/{product}/arm-b/run-{1,2,3}.html`
+- B-vs-C baseline: `docs/design/fixtures/runs/b-vs-c-baseline/`

package/docs/articles/per-repo-adaptive-scripts-token-savings.md

@@ -0,0 +1,174 @@
+---
+title: "Per-Repo Adaptive Scripts: Measured Token Savings vs Per-Session Rediscovery"
+description: "Every AI coding session rediscovers the same project-specific patterns — branch names, test commands, commit style. We measured the cost and quantified how per-repo adaptive scripts eliminate it."
+tags: ["ai", "performance", "tokens", "productivity", "opensource"]
+cover_image:
+canonical_url: https://github.com/RapierCraftStudios/ForgeDock
+published: false
+---
+
+<!-- Generated by ForgeDock pipeline — Issue #673 -->
+
+AI coding agents are expensive to run. Every session starts from scratch, re-reading files, running commands, and re-learning the same project-specific patterns that have not changed since last week. This article measures how much that costs, and what per-repo adaptive scripts do about it.
+
+---
+
+## The Problem: Per-Session Rediscovery
+
+Every time a ForgeDock agent starts working on an issue, it must answer the same questions about the project:
+
+- What is the PR base branch? (staging? milestone/something? main?)
+- How do I run the tests? (pnpm test? pytest? npm run test:unit?)
+- What commit format does this project use? (conventional commits? what scope?)
+- Where do the tests live? (tests/? __tests__/? spec/?)
+- What workflow labels exist on this repo?
+
+None of these change between sessions. The codebase does not reorganize its test directory overnight. The commit convention does not shift on a Tuesday. But the agent re-discovers all of them from scratch on every run — reading files, executing commands, inferring patterns.
+
+We measured this cost across five representative completed issues.
+
+---
+
+## Methodology
+
+We analyzed five pipeline sessions from the ForgeDock dogfooding repository (issues #674, #669, #671, #679, #676). For each session, we identified every tool call that was a "rediscovery call" — a call whose purpose was to learn something about the project that was already true in the previous session.
+
+Token counts were estimated at 1 token per 4 characters (conservative; actual tokenization may differ by model and content type). We counted command invocation + output, not context window overhead.
+
+---
+
+## Baseline: Per-Session Rediscovery Cost
+
+| Operation | Mechanism (baseline) | Token estimate |
+|-----------|---------------------|----------------|
+| forge.yaml full read | Read 111-line, 4,228-byte file | ~1,050 |
+| Branch name determination | `gh issue view` + LLM milestone-to-slug inference | ~350 |
+| Commit style detection | `git log --oneline -5` + LLM pattern inference | ~200 |
+| Test command discovery | Read package.json/pyproject.toml + grep test scripts | ~400 |
+| Test location discovery | `ls tests/`, `ls __tests__/`, parse package.json | ~250 |
+| Label scheme discovery | `gh label list` or inferred from pipeline comments | ~300 |
+| **Total per session** | | **~2,550 tokens** |
+
+These numbers are per-session. On a repository with active development (10-30 issues/month), this rediscovery tax runs 25,500–76,500 tokens/month on patterns that have not changed.
+
+The branch name example is instructive. Before `classify-lane.sh` was introduced in #669, agents would:
+
+1. Call `gh issue view NUMBER --json milestone` (~200 tokens output)
+2. Extract the milestone title string
+3. LLM-infer the slug transformation (`Deterministic Pipeline v2` → `milestone/deterministic-pipeline-v2`)
+4. Sometimes get it wrong and hallucinate `milestone/project-agnostic` (the bug that motivated #639)
+
+After `classify-lane.sh`: one deterministic script execution with a 6-token output. No LLM inference in the critical path.
+
+---
+
+## Target: Per-Repo Adaptive Script Overhead
+
+After `/optimize` generates `.forgedock/scripts/` entries from `forge.yaml → learned:`, the same operations become:
+
+| Script | Size | Execution cost |
+|--------|------|----------------|
+| `branch-targets.sh` | 23 lines, ~470 bytes | ~170 tokens |
+| `run-tests.sh` | 10 lines, ~200 bytes | ~80 tokens |
+| `format-commit.sh` | 15 lines, ~300 bytes | ~100 tokens |
+| `forge.yaml` learned section (4 targeted yq reads) | subset of 4,228-byte file | ~100 tokens |
+| **Total per session** | | **~450 tokens** |
+
+The key insight: a script call costs roughly the script size (to read) plus the output size (to receive). A 23-line branch-targets.sh costs ~118 tokens to read and produces 1 line of output. The equivalent LLM-based rediscovery costs ~350 tokens and occasionally hallucinates.
+
+---
+
+## Savings Calculation
+
+```
+savings_per_session = 2,550 - 450 = 2,100 tokens
+
+range:
+  low  = 1,200 tokens  (simple fast-lane issues, no test discovery needed)
+  high = 3,500 tokens  (complex multi-file issues with full pattern rediscovery)
+```
+
+At claude-sonnet-4-5 pricing ($3.00 per million input tokens):
+
+```
+2,100 tokens/session × $3.00 / 1,000,000 = $0.0063/session
+```
+
+At observed ForgeDock dogfooding pace (5–15 issues/day, averaging ~10):
+
+```
+300 sessions/month × $0.0063 = $1.89/month per repo
+```
+
+For teams running ForgeDock at production scale across multiple repositories, these savings compound. A team with 5 active repos at 300 sessions/month each saves ~$9.45/month from adaptive scripts alone. The cost of running `/optimize` once per repo to generate the scripts: effectively zero (a single session that generates ~5 scripts).
+
+**Payback period: 1 session.**
+
+---
+
+## Comparison with DevDocs
+
+Per-repo scripts and devdocs solve different problems:
+
+| Pattern type | Script approach | DevDocs approach | Winner |
+|-------------|----------------|-----------------|--------|
+| Branch target | `branch-targets.sh` — 23 lines, 1 execution call | 1 line in architecture.md | **DevDocs** (simpler for static values already documented) |
+| Test commands | `run-tests.sh` — executable, deterministic output | Section in devdocs, LLM parses prose | **Scripts** (executable beats interpreted) |
+| Commit format | `format-commit.sh` — outputs exact string | Convention in devdocs, LLM infers | **Scripts** (deterministic output vs interpretation) |
+| Architecture decisions | Cannot encode reasoning in scripts | `devdocs/project/architecture.md` | **DevDocs** (irreplaceable for reasoning context) |
+| Debug runbooks | Script could wrap commands, but context matters | DevDocs with structured steps | **DevDocs** (context-dependent) |
+
+The boundary rule: if the knowledge produces a **deterministic output** (a branch name, a command string, a file path), encode it as a script. If it requires **contextual interpretation** (design rationale, tradeoff analysis, conventions with exceptions), encode it in devdocs.
+
+Per-repo scripts replace approximately 25–40% of devdocs content for projects with established operational patterns. This reduces per-session devdocs loading by an estimated 500–1,000 tokens, complementing the token savings from selective devdocs loading introduced in #675.
+
+**Combined savings per session** (adaptive scripts + devdocs selective loading):
+
+```
+Rediscovery elimination (adaptive scripts): ~2,100 tokens
+Devdocs selective loading (#675):           ~1,000 tokens
+────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+Total combined:                             ~3,100 tokens/session
+```
+
+---
+
+## What Gets Generated
+
+Running `/optimize` on a ForgeDock repository after the `learned:` section is populated produces:
+
+| Script | Trigger | What it replaces |
+|--------|---------|-----------------|
+| `branch-targets.sh` | `learned.branch_targets.staging` is set | gh issue milestone lookup + LLM slug inference |
+| `run-tests.sh` | `learned.test_commands` is non-empty | package.json/pyproject.toml read + LLM test command inference |
+| `format-commit.sh` | `learned.commit_style` is set + 3+ commits confirm pattern | git log --oneline + LLM conventional commit inference |
+| `find-tests.sh` | `learned.test_locations` is non-empty | ls tests/, __tests__/ + LLM path inference |
+| `label-map.sh` | `learned.label_map` is non-empty | gh label list + LLM label mapping |
+
+Each script is generated at confidence >= 0.7 (two independent signals) or 1.0 (explicit `learned:` value). The confidence threshold ensures scripts are only generated when there is enough signal to trust the encoded knowledge.
+
+---
+
+## Limitations and Confidence Intervals
+
+The estimates in this article carry these caveats:
+
+1. **Token counting method**: We use 1 token per 4 characters. Actual tokenization varies by model and content type (code tokenizes more densely than prose). Error: ±20%.
+
+2. **Baseline measurement**: We analyzed 5 issues from one repository (ForgeDock itself). A ForgeDock-type repository (markdown command specs, minimal code) may have lower rediscovery cost than a large application codebase with many test configurations. Application repos with complex test setups may see 4,000–6,000 tokens of rediscovery per session.
+
+3. **LLM hallucination cost not counted**: Our baseline counts only the token cost of rediscovery, not the token cost of correcting a hallucinated branch name or wrong test command. Including rework, the actual cost of rediscovery-induced errors is higher.
+
+4. **Model pricing changes**: The $3.00/M figure is current as of June 2026. Pricing trends downward over time; the absolute dollar savings will decrease, but the proportional savings (rediscovery as a fraction of session cost) remain constant.
+
+---
+
+## Prioritization Conclusion
+
+This measurement was created to inform the prioritization decision for #667 (learned section) and #668 (/optimize command). Both are now merged.
+
+The data confirms: **adaptive scripts are worth implementing.** The payback period is less than one session. The primary value is not dollar savings (which are modest for individual repos) but **reliability** — replacing LLM inference with deterministic script output eliminates a class of hallucination errors that were causing production-impacting bugs (see #639: agents hallucinating `milestone/project-agnostic` instead of `staging`).
+
+Token savings are the measurable proxy for the deeper value: an agent that runs `branch-targets.sh` and gets `milestone/deterministic-pipeline-v2` in 6 tokens cannot hallucinate the branch name. An agent that reads a 350-token prose description and infers the branch name sometimes gets it wrong.
+
+Scripts do not just save tokens. They eliminate a category of error.