euparliamentmonitor 0.8.52 → 0.8.54

package/README.md

@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ This repository is the open-source platform behind **[euparliamentmonitor.com](h
 | 🧠 **Political Intelligence** | Structured analytic techniques (ACH, SWOT/TOWS, PESTLE, scenario forecasting, devil's-advocate), Admiralty source grading, Words of Estimative Probability (WEP) bands, ICD-203 standards, and a 6-dimension political-threat framework — applied daily to live EP data. |
 | 🔍 **Radical Transparency** | Every article links back to the analysis run it was rendered from. Every artifact links to its methodology. Every methodology is published. No black box. |
 | 🗳️ **Democratic Accountability** | Public-data only. GDPR-clean. No personal profiling. Multi-language so a Finnish farmer, a Greek student, and a Polish journalist all get the same intelligence in their own language. |
-| 🤖 **AI-Generated News** | 8 unified gh-aw agentic workflows + 1 translation workflow run autonomously, produce structured analysis, render deterministic HTML, and open publication-ready pull requests for human review. |
+| 🤖 **AI-Generated News** | 14 unified gh-aw agentic workflows + 1 translation workflow run autonomously, produce structured analysis, render deterministic HTML, and open publication-ready pull requests for human review. |
 
 ### Documentation & Reports
 [![API Docs](https://img.shields.io/badge/API-Documentation-blue?logo=javascript)](https://euparliamentmonitor.com/docs/api/)
@@ -124,7 +124,7 @@ The published site is the audience-facing companion to this npm/TypeScript packa
 - [Agent Catalog](.github/agents/README.md) — custom Copilot agents (analysis producers / consumers / gh-aw infrastructure)
 - [Skills Library](.github/skills/README.md) — shared skills (security, compliance, intelligence, gh-aw)
 - [Prompt Library](.github/prompts/README.md) — 10-file bounded-context prompt set (`00`→`09`) + `npm run lint:prompts` drift-guard
-- [Workflows](.github/workflows/README.md) + [WORKFLOWS.md](WORKFLOWS.md) — 9 `news-*.md` agentic workflows (8 unified `news-<type>.md` + `news-translate.md`) + CI workflows
+- [Workflows](.github/workflows/README.md) + [WORKFLOWS.md](WORKFLOWS.md) — 15 `news-*.md` agentic workflows (14 unified `news-<type>.md` covering 14 article types — including the long-horizon `quarter-ahead`/`quarter-in-review`/`year-ahead`/`year-in-review`/`term-outlook`/`election-cycle` set added in 2026-Q2 — plus `news-translate.md`) + CI workflows
 - [Analysis Chain](analysis/README.md) — 5-stage pipeline (Data → Analysis → Completeness Gate → Article → Single PR), methodologies, 39 templates, quality thresholds
 
 **🔒 ISMS Compliance:**
@@ -136,11 +136,11 @@ The published site is the audience-facing companion to this npm/TypeScript packa
 
 **MCP Server Integration**: The project uses the
 [European-Parliament-MCP-Server](https://github.com/Hack23/European-Parliament-MCP-Server)
-v1.2.18 for accessing real EU Parliament data via the Model Context Protocol.
+v1.2.20 for accessing real EU Parliament data via the Model Context Protocol.
 
 - **MCP Server Status**: ✅ Fully operational — 60+ EP data tools available
   (feeds, direct lookups, analytical tools, intelligence correlation)
-- **Agentic Workflows**: 9 unified gh-aw markdown workflows — 8 article types (`news-<type>.md`, Stages A → B → C → D → E in one session) + `news-translate.md` (14-language flush translation) — compiled with
+- **Agentic Workflows**: 15 unified gh-aw markdown workflows — 14 article types (`news-<type>.md`, Stages A → B → C → D → E in one session) + `news-translate.md` (14-language flush translation) — compiled with
   `gh-aw v0.69.3` (pin in `.github/workflows/compile-agentic-workflows.yml`) to `.lock.yml` for automated news generation with AI-driven political
   intelligence analysis. See [`.github/workflows/README.md`](.github/workflows/README.md).
 - **Analysis-Artifact-Driven Article Pipeline**: Agents author the full
@@ -338,21 +338,27 @@ flowchart LR
 
 ## 📰 Live News Streams
 
-**Eight unified gh-aw article workflows** plus a **14-language translation helper** run on precision schedules, autonomously generating *Economist-style* political intelligence and opening publication-ready pull requests. Every workflow follows the same Stage A → E contract documented in [Article-Generation.md](Article-Generation.md).
+**Fourteen unified gh-aw article workflows** plus a **14-language translation helper** run on precision schedules, autonomously generating *Economist-style* political intelligence and opening publication-ready pull requests. Every workflow follows the same Stage A → E contract documented in [Article-Generation.md](Article-Generation.md). The single source of truth for every horizon's data window, cadence, mandatory artifacts, stage budgets, scenario depth and electoral overlay is the [`ARTICLE_HORIZONS` registry in `src/config/article-horizons.ts`](src/config/article-horizons.ts).
 
 | Workflow | Article Type | Focus |
 |----------|--------------|-------|
 | 🚨 **[news-breaking.md](.github/workflows/news-breaking.md)** | `breaking` | Rapid-response coverage of significant EP developments. |
 | 📋 **[news-week-ahead.md](.github/workflows/news-week-ahead.md)** | `week-ahead` | Forward calendar, committee agenda, urgency-file outlook. |
 | 🔭 **[news-month-ahead.md](.github/workflows/news-month-ahead.md)** | `month-ahead` | 30-day strategic horizon and risk forecast. |
+| 🌐 **[news-quarter-ahead.md](.github/workflows/news-quarter-ahead.md)** | `quarter-ahead` | 90-day legislative pipeline forecast + presidency-trio overlay. |
+| 🛰️ **[news-year-ahead.md](.github/workflows/news-year-ahead.md)** | `year-ahead` | 12-month strategic outlook with seat-projection sensitivity. |
+| 🗓️ **[news-term-outlook.md](.github/workflows/news-term-outlook.md)** | `term-outlook` | Full EP-term outlook anchored to the next-EP-election week. |
+| 🗳️ **[news-election-cycle.md](.github/workflows/news-election-cycle.md)** | `election-cycle` | EP-election span (±6 mo) — mandate scorecard + seat projection + Spitzenkandidaten arithmetic. |
 | 📊 **[news-week-in-review.md](.github/workflows/news-week-in-review.md)** | `week-in-review` | Past-week retrospective intelligence (D-8 → D-36 reporting window). |
 | 📈 **[news-month-in-review.md](.github/workflows/news-month-in-review.md)** | `month-in-review` | Monthly retrospective with cross-run continuity analysis. |
+| 📚 **[news-quarter-in-review.md](.github/workflows/news-quarter-in-review.md)** | `quarter-in-review` | Quarterly retrospective with pipeline transit + presidency-trio overlay. |
+| 📜 **[news-year-in-review.md](.github/workflows/news-year-in-review.md)** | `year-in-review` | Annual retrospective with mandate-fulfilment + term-arc + historical parallels. |
 | 🏛️ **[news-committee-reports.md](.github/workflows/news-committee-reports.md)** | `committee-reports` | Committee activity, rapporteur work, legislative-production analysis. |
 | ⚖️ **[news-motions.md](.github/workflows/news-motions.md)** | `motions` | Plenary motions, resolutions, urgency files, political signals. |
 | 📜 **[news-propositions.md](.github/workflows/news-propositions.md)** | `propositions` | Legislative proposals and pipeline analysis. |
 | 🌍 **[news-translate.md](.github/workflows/news-translate.md)** | translation helper | 14-language flush translation (manual dispatch only). |
 
-Each unified workflow runs Stages A–E **in a single 45-minute session** and produces exactly one PR containing both the analysis artifacts and the rendered HTML. The earlier split-pair `news-<type>-analysis.md` + `news-<type>-article.md` layout was retired in the April-2026 aggregator migration. See **[.github/workflows/README.md](.github/workflows/README.md)** for compile / lock-file / safe-output mechanics, and **[WORKFLOWS.md](WORKFLOWS.md)** for the full CI/CD catalog.
+Each unified workflow runs Stages A–E **in a single 60-minute session** (`engine.mcp.session-timeout: 65m`) and produces exactly one PR containing both the analysis artifacts and the rendered HTML. The earlier split-pair `news-<type>-analysis.md` + `news-<type>-article.md` layout was retired in the April-2026 aggregator migration. See **[.github/workflows/README.md](.github/workflows/README.md)** for compile / lock-file / safe-output mechanics, **[WORKFLOWS.md](WORKFLOWS.md)** for the full CI/CD catalog, and **[Article-Generation.md § Forward-looking horizons & election cycle](Article-Generation.md)** for the new long-horizon and electoral pipeline.
 
 > 📚 **Prompt Library (`.github/prompts/`)** — 10 bounded-context prompt files (`00-scope-and-ground-rules.md` → `09-troubleshooting.md`) shared across every workflow. The `npm run lint:prompts` drift-guard fails CI on banned patterns (`checkpoint pr`, `keep-alive`, `heartbeat`, `progressive safe output`, `push_repo_memory`).
 
@@ -426,7 +432,7 @@ import type { ArticleCategory, LanguageCode } from 'euparliamentmonitor/types';
 
 ## 🔌 Data Sources
 
-**Primary — European Parliament MCP Server** ([Hack23/European-Parliament-MCP-Server](https://github.com/Hack23/European-Parliament-MCP-Server) v1.2.18+, fully operational):
+**Primary — European Parliament MCP Server** ([Hack23/European-Parliament-MCP-Server](https://github.com/Hack23/European-Parliament-MCP-Server) v1.2.20+, fully operational):
 
 - 🗳️ Plenary sessions, voting records, roll-call votes
 - 📜 Adopted texts, motions, resolutions, urgency files
@@ -560,7 +566,7 @@ Six-phase roadmap from current agentic news generation to AGI-enhanced transform
 timeline
     title EU Parliament Monitor — AI Evolution Roadmap
     section Phase 1 (2026)
-        Agentic News : 8 unified workflows
+        Agentic News : 14 unified workflows
                      : 14-language generation
                      : Deterministic aggregator
                      : 51-artifact analysis catalog

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "euparliamentmonitor",
-  "version": "0.8.52",
+  "version": "0.8.54",
   "type": "module",
   "description": "European Parliament Intelligence Platform - Monitor political activity with systematic transparency",
   "main": "scripts/index.js",
@@ -131,7 +131,7 @@
   },
   "homepage": "https://euparliamentmonitor.com",
   "devDependencies": {
-    "@axe-core/playwright": "4.11.2",
+    "@axe-core/playwright": "4.11.3",
     "@eslint/js": "10.0.1",
     "@playwright/test": "1.59.1",
     "@types/d3": "7.4.3",
@@ -145,7 +145,7 @@
     "chart.js": "4.5.1",
     "chartjs-plugin-annotation": "3.1.0",
     "d3": "7.9.0",
-    "eslint": "10.2.1",
+    "eslint": "10.3.0",
     "eslint-config-prettier": "10.1.8",
     "eslint-plugin-jsdoc": "62.9.0",
     "eslint-plugin-security": "4.0.0",
@@ -169,7 +169,7 @@
     "node": ">=25"
   },
   "dependencies": {
-    "european-parliament-mcp-server": "1.2.18",
+    "european-parliament-mcp-server": "1.2.20",
     "markdown-it": "^14.1.1",
     "markdown-it-anchor": "^9.2.0",
     "markdown-it-attrs": "^4.3.1",

package/scripts/aggregator/article-metadata.d.ts

@@ -192,6 +192,39 @@ export declare function deriveReportingWindowForWeekInReview(date: string): {
  * @returns Month label, or the input when parsing fails
  */
 export declare function deriveMonthLabel(date: string): string;
+/**
+ * Return a quarter label for an ISO date — `Q<n> <YYYY>` (e.g. `Q2 2026`).
+ * Used by `quarter-ahead` and `quarter-in-review` title generators.
+ *
+ * @param date - ISO date string
+ * @returns Quarter label, or the input when parsing fails
+ */
+export declare function deriveQuarterLabel(date: string): string;
+/**
+ * Return a four-digit year label for an ISO date. Used by `year-ahead`
+ * and `year-in-review` title generators.
+ *
+ * @param date - ISO date string
+ * @returns Year label, or the input when parsing fails
+ */
+export declare function deriveYearLabel(date: string): string;
+/**
+ * Return the EP-term label for an ISO date — `EP10 → 2029` or `EP11 → 2034`.
+ * Used by `term-outlook` title generator.
+ *
+ * @param date - ISO date string
+ * @returns Term label, or the input when parsing fails
+ */
+export declare function deriveTermLabel(date: string): string;
+/**
+ * Return the election-cycle label for an ISO date — pairs the outgoing
+ * and incoming EP terms with the election year (e.g. `EP10 → EP11 (2029)`).
+ * Used by the `election-cycle` title generator.
+ *
+ * @param date - ISO date string
+ * @returns Cycle label, or the input when parsing fails
+ */
+export declare function deriveElectionCycleLabel(date: string): string;
 /**
  * Resolve per-language `{title, description}` for one article following
  * the priority ladder documented at the top of this module.

package/scripts/aggregator/article-metadata.js

@@ -45,7 +45,7 @@
 import fs from 'fs';
 import path from 'path';
 import { ALL_LANGUAGES, getLocalizedString } from '../constants/language-core.js';
-import { BREAKING_NEWS_TITLES, COMMITTEE_REPORTS_TITLES, MONTH_AHEAD_TITLES, MONTHLY_REVIEW_TITLES, MOTIONS_TITLES, PROPOSITIONS_TITLES, WEEK_AHEAD_TITLES, WEEKLY_REVIEW_TITLES, } from '../constants/language-articles.js';
+import { BREAKING_NEWS_TITLES, COMMITTEE_REPORTS_TITLES, ELECTION_CYCLE_TITLES, MONTH_AHEAD_TITLES, MONTHLY_REVIEW_TITLES, MOTIONS_TITLES, PROPOSITIONS_TITLES, QUARTER_AHEAD_TITLES, QUARTER_IN_REVIEW_TITLES, TERM_OUTLOOK_TITLES, WEEK_AHEAD_TITLES, WEEKLY_REVIEW_TITLES, YEAR_AHEAD_TITLES, YEAR_IN_REVIEW_TITLES, } from '../constants/language-articles.js';
 /** Maximum `<meta description>` length we will emit. */
 const DESCRIPTION_MAX_LENGTH = 300;
 /** Maximum `<title>` length — anything longer is truncated with an ellipsis. */
@@ -455,6 +455,10 @@ export function buildTemplateFallback(articleType, date, committee) {
         : deriveWeekRange(date);
     const monthLabel = deriveMonthLabel(date);
     const committeeLabel = committee && committee.trim().length > 0 ? committee : 'Main Committees';
+    const quarterLabel = deriveQuarterLabel(date);
+    const yearLabel = deriveYearLabel(date);
+    const termLabel = deriveTermLabel(date);
+    const cycleLabel = deriveElectionCycleLabel(date);
     for (const lang of ALL_LANGUAGES) {
         const entry = templateForType(lang, articleType, {
             date,
@@ -462,6 +466,10 @@ export function buildTemplateFallback(articleType, date, committee) {
             weekEnd: weekRange.end,
             month: monthLabel,
             committee: committeeLabel,
+            quarter: quarterLabel,
+            year: yearLabel,
+            term: termLabel,
+            cycle: cycleLabel,
         });
         Object.defineProperty(map, lang, {
             value: entry,
@@ -501,6 +509,18 @@ function templateForType(lang, articleType, inputs) {
             return getLocalizedString(WEEKLY_REVIEW_TITLES, lang)(inputs.weekStart, inputs.weekEnd);
         case 'month-in-review':
             return getLocalizedString(MONTHLY_REVIEW_TITLES, lang)(inputs.month);
+        case 'quarter-ahead':
+            return getLocalizedString(QUARTER_AHEAD_TITLES, lang)(inputs.quarter);
+        case 'quarter-in-review':
+            return getLocalizedString(QUARTER_IN_REVIEW_TITLES, lang)(inputs.quarter);
+        case 'year-ahead':
+            return getLocalizedString(YEAR_AHEAD_TITLES, lang)(inputs.year);
+        case 'year-in-review':
+            return getLocalizedString(YEAR_IN_REVIEW_TITLES, lang)(inputs.year);
+        case 'term-outlook':
+            return getLocalizedString(TERM_OUTLOOK_TITLES, lang)(inputs.term);
+        case 'election-cycle':
+            return getLocalizedString(ELECTION_CYCLE_TITLES, lang)(inputs.cycle);
         default:
             return {
                 title: `${humanizeSlug(articleType)} — ${inputs.date}`,
@@ -581,6 +601,103 @@ export function deriveMonthLabel(date) {
     const name = monthNames[parsed.getUTCMonth()] ?? '';
     return `${name} ${parsed.getUTCFullYear()}`.trim();
 }
+/**
+ * Return a quarter label for an ISO date — `Q<n> <YYYY>` (e.g. `Q2 2026`).
+ * Used by `quarter-ahead` and `quarter-in-review` title generators.
+ *
+ * @param date - ISO date string
+ * @returns Quarter label, or the input when parsing fails
+ */
+export function deriveQuarterLabel(date) {
+    const parsed = parseIsoDate(date);
+    if (!parsed)
+        return date;
+    const quarter = Math.floor(parsed.getUTCMonth() / 3) + 1;
+    return `Q${quarter} ${parsed.getUTCFullYear()}`;
+}
+/**
+ * Return a four-digit year label for an ISO date. Used by `year-ahead`
+ * and `year-in-review` title generators.
+ *
+ * @param date - ISO date string
+ * @returns Year label, or the input when parsing fails
+ */
+export function deriveYearLabel(date) {
+    const parsed = parseIsoDate(date);
+    if (!parsed)
+        return date;
+    return String(parsed.getUTCFullYear());
+}
+/**
+ * EP-term constants — keep these in sync with
+ * {@link analysis/methodologies/electoral-cycle-methodology.md}.
+ *  - EP10: 16 Jul 2024 → ~end of June 2029
+ *  - EP11: ~Jul 2029 → ~Jun 2034
+ */
+const EP10_START_YEAR = 2024;
+const EP10_END_YEAR = 2029;
+const EP11_END_YEAR = 2034;
+const EP_ELECTION_MONTH = 6; // June
+/**
+ * Return the EP-term label for an ISO date — `EP10 → 2029` or `EP11 → 2034`.
+ * Used by `term-outlook` title generator.
+ *
+ * @param date - ISO date string
+ * @returns Term label, or the input when parsing fails
+ */
+export function deriveTermLabel(date) {
+    const parsed = parseIsoDate(date);
+    if (!parsed)
+        return date;
+    const year = parsed.getUTCFullYear();
+    const month = parsed.getUTCMonth() + 1;
+    if (year < EP10_START_YEAR)
+        return `EP9 → ${EP10_START_YEAR}`;
+    // EPn ends at end of June of its election year — the constitutive sitting of
+    // EP(n+1) happens in early-mid July, so the term only flips after Jun.
+    if (year < EP10_END_YEAR || (year === EP10_END_YEAR && month <= EP_ELECTION_MONTH)) {
+        return `EP10 → ${EP10_END_YEAR}`;
+    }
+    if (year < EP11_END_YEAR || (year === EP11_END_YEAR && month <= EP_ELECTION_MONTH)) {
+        return `EP11 → ${EP11_END_YEAR}`;
+    }
+    // Beyond EP11 — extrapolate by 5-year terms anchored at end of June of the
+    // election year. `termsBeyond=1` means EP12 (ends 2039), 2 means EP13, …
+    const yearsBeyond = year - EP11_END_YEAR;
+    const offset = month <= EP_ELECTION_MONTH ? 0 : 1;
+    const termsBeyond = Math.floor((yearsBeyond - 1 + offset) / 5) + 1;
+    const termIndex = 11 + termsBeyond;
+    const termEnd = EP11_END_YEAR + 5 * termsBeyond;
+    return `EP${termIndex} → ${termEnd}`;
+}
+/**
+ * Return the election-cycle label for an ISO date — pairs the outgoing
+ * and incoming EP terms with the election year (e.g. `EP10 → EP11 (2029)`).
+ * Used by the `election-cycle` title generator.
+ *
+ * @param date - ISO date string
+ * @returns Cycle label, or the input when parsing fails
+ */
+export function deriveElectionCycleLabel(date) {
+    const parsed = parseIsoDate(date);
+    if (!parsed)
+        return date;
+    const year = parsed.getUTCFullYear();
+    // The cycle "EPn → EP(n+1) (E)" labels the period **up to and including
+    // the entire calendar year of the election** — i.e. ±6 months around June
+    // of E. Pre-election dates anticipate E; post-election dates (e.g.
+    // 2029-12-01) still belong to the cycle that just resolved. The cycle
+    // flips on Jan 1 of the year after the election.
+    if (year <= EP10_END_YEAR)
+        return `EP10 → EP11 (${EP10_END_YEAR})`;
+    if (year <= EP11_END_YEAR)
+        return `EP11 → EP12 (${EP11_END_YEAR})`;
+    // Beyond EP11 — extrapolate by 5-year cycles.
+    const cyclesBeyond = Math.ceil((year - EP11_END_YEAR) / 5);
+    const electionYear = EP11_END_YEAR + 5 * cyclesBeyond;
+    const out = 11 + cyclesBeyond;
+    return `EP${out} → EP${out + 1} (${electionYear})`;
+}
 /**
  * Parse an ISO date string as UTC midnight. Returns `null` for malformed
  * input so callers can skip month/week derivation gracefully.

package/scripts/aggregator/artifact-order.js

@@ -99,6 +99,27 @@ export const ARTIFACT_SECTIONS = [
         title: 'Scenarios & Wildcards',
         artifacts: ['intelligence/scenario-forecast.md', 'intelligence/wildcards-blackswans.md'],
     },
+    {
+        id: 'forward-projection',
+        title: 'Forward Projection',
+        artifacts: [
+            'intelligence/forward-projection.md',
+            'intelligence/legislative-pipeline-forecast.md',
+            'intelligence/parliamentary-calendar-projection.md',
+            'extended/forward-indicators.md',
+        ],
+    },
+    {
+        id: 'electoral-arc',
+        title: 'Electoral Arc & Mandate',
+        artifacts: [
+            'intelligence/term-arc.md',
+            'intelligence/seat-projection.md',
+            'intelligence/mandate-fulfilment-scorecard.md',
+            'intelligence/presidency-trio-context.md',
+            'intelligence/commission-wp-alignment.md',
+        ],
+    },
     {
         id: 'continuity',
         title: 'Cross-Run Continuity',

package/scripts/aggregator/forward-statements-registry.js

@@ -17,7 +17,7 @@
  *     originatingDate:     string  — YYYY-MM-DD
  *     statement:           string  — The forward-looking statement text
  *     expectedHorizon:     string  — YYYY-MM-DD or ISO week (e.g. "2026-W18")
- *     status:              "open" | "implemented" | "superseded" | "abandoned"
+ *     status:              "open" | "implemented" | "superseded" | "abandoned" | "resolved" | "stale" | "extended"
  *     lastObservedDate:    string  — YYYY-MM-DD of last run that touched this entry
  *     evidenceRefs:        string[] — EP document IDs or procedure IDs supporting the claim
  *   }
@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@
  * Invocation:
  *   node scripts/aggregator/forward-statements-registry.js --help
  *   node scripts/aggregator/forward-statements-registry.js append  <json-file-or-stdin>
- *   node scripts/aggregator/forward-statements-registry.js read    [--status open] [--horizon-from YYYY-MM-DD] [--horizon-to YYYY-MM-DD]
+ *   node scripts/aggregator/forward-statements-registry.js read    [--status open] [--horizon-from YYYY-MM-DD] [--horizon-to YYYY-MM-DD] [--electoral-mode]
  *   node scripts/aggregator/forward-statements-registry.js update  --id <id> --status <status> [--evidence <ref>] [--date <YYYY-MM-DD>]
  *   node scripts/aggregator/forward-statements-registry.js summary
  */
@@ -44,7 +44,10 @@ import path from 'node:path';
 import process from 'node:process';
 
 const REGISTRY_DIR = path.resolve(process.cwd(), 'analysis/forward-statements');
-const VALID_STATUSES = /** @type {const} */ (['open', 'implemented', 'superseded', 'abandoned']);
+const VALID_STATUSES = /** @type {const} */ ([
+  'open', 'implemented', 'superseded', 'abandoned',
+  'resolved', 'stale', 'extended',
+]);
 
 // ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 // Public helpers (exported for Vitest)
@@ -201,7 +204,12 @@ export function appendEntries(entries, registryDir) {
  * @param {object} [opts] - Filter options
  * @param {string} [opts.status] - Filter by status (e.g. "open")
  * @param {string} [opts.horizonFrom] - ISO date; entries with expectedHorizon < this are excluded
- * @param {string} [opts.horizonTo] - ISO date; entries with expectedHorizon > this are excluded
+ * @param {string} [opts.horizonTo] - ISO date; entries with expectedHorizon > this are excluded.
+ *   Long-horizon callers (term-outlook, election-cycle) may pass a date up to
+ *   **+1825 days** (~5 years) ahead of `horizonFrom` to cover the EP-term arc.
+ * @param {boolean} [opts.electoralMode] - When true, only entries with `category === 'electoral'`
+ *   (or whose `tags[]` contains `'electoral'`) are returned. Used by the `news-election-cycle.md`
+ *   and `news-term-outlook.md` workflows to scope carry-forward to electoral-domain forecasts.
  * @param {string} [opts.registryDir] - Override registry directory (used in tests)
  * @returns {Record<string, unknown>[]} All matching entries
  */
@@ -259,11 +267,64 @@ export function readEntries(opts) {
 
     if (opts?.horizonFrom && typeof horizon === 'string' && horizon < opts.horizonFrom) continue;
     if (opts?.horizonTo && typeof horizon === 'string' && horizon > opts.horizonTo) continue;
+
+    if (opts?.electoralMode) {
+      const category = typeof entry.category === 'string' ? entry.category.toLowerCase() : '';
+      const tags = Array.isArray(entry.tags) ? entry.tags.map((t) => String(t).toLowerCase()) : [];
+      if (category !== 'electoral' && !tags.includes('electoral')) continue;
+    }
+
     results.push(entry);
   }
   return results;
 }
 
+/** Statuses that close out an expired forward statement (all terminal states). */
+const RESOLVED_STATUSES = [
+  'implemented', 'superseded', 'abandoned',
+  'resolved', 'stale', 'extended',
+];
+
+/**
+ * Return forward-statement entries whose `expectedHorizon` is before `today`
+ * and whose latest status is NOT a terminal state (implemented, superseded,
+ * abandoned, resolved, stale, or extended).
+ * These are "expired unresolved" entries that Stage B must close out.
+ *
+ * @param {object} [opts] - Options
+ * @param {string} [opts.today] - Override today's date (YYYY-MM-DD); defaults to UTC today
+ * @param {string} [opts.registryDir] - Override registry directory (used in tests)
+ * @returns {Record<string, unknown>[]} Expired unresolved entries
+ */
+export function readExpiredUnresolved(opts) {
+  const today = opts?.today ?? new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  const all = readEntries({ registryDir: opts?.registryDir });
+  const expired = [];
+  for (const entry of all) {
+    if (typeof entry.expectedHorizon !== 'string') {
+      process.stderr.write(
+        `Skipping forward-statement entry "${entry.id}" with missing expectedHorizon\n`,
+      );
+      continue;
+    }
+    let horizon;
+    try {
+      horizon = normaliseHorizon(/** @type {string} */ (entry.expectedHorizon));
+    } catch (error) {
+      process.stderr.write(
+        `Skipping forward-statement entry "${entry.id}" with invalid expectedHorizon ` +
+          `"${entry.expectedHorizon}": ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}\n`,
+      );
+      continue;
+    }
+    if (horizon >= today) continue;
+    const status = typeof entry.status === 'string' ? entry.status : '';
+    if (RESOLVED_STATUSES.includes(status)) continue;
+    expired.push(entry);
+  }
+  return expired;
+}
+
 /**
  * Update an existing entry's status, lastObservedDate, and optionally append
  * an evidence reference. The update is written as a new JSONL line in the
@@ -429,8 +490,8 @@ export function cli(argv) {
         '',
         'Commands:',
         '  append  [--file <path>]  Append entries from a JSON array file (or stdin)',
-        '  read    [--status open|implemented|superseded|abandoned]',
-        '          [--horizon-from YYYY-MM-DD] [--horizon-to YYYY-MM-DD]',
+        '  read    [--status open|implemented|superseded|abandoned|resolved|stale|extended]',
+        '          [--horizon-from YYYY-MM-DD] [--horizon-to YYYY-MM-DD] [--electoral-mode]',
         '                           Read and print matching entries as JSON array',
         '  update  --id <id> --status <status> [--evidence <ref>] [--date YYYY-MM-DD]',
         '                           Update an existing entry',
@@ -460,10 +521,12 @@ export function cli(argv) {
     const statusFlag = rest.indexOf('--status');
     const fromFlag = rest.indexOf('--horizon-from');
     const toFlag = rest.indexOf('--horizon-to');
+    const electoralFlag = rest.indexOf('--electoral-mode');
     const opts = {};
     if (statusFlag !== -1 && rest[statusFlag + 1]) opts.status = rest[statusFlag + 1];
     if (fromFlag !== -1 && rest[fromFlag + 1]) opts.horizonFrom = rest[fromFlag + 1];
     if (toFlag !== -1 && rest[toFlag + 1]) opts.horizonTo = rest[toFlag + 1];
+    if (electoralFlag !== -1) opts.electoralMode = true;
     process.stdout.write(JSON.stringify(readEntries(opts), null, 2) + '\n');
     return;
   }

package/scripts/aggregator/manifest/index.d.ts

@@ -2,7 +2,8 @@
  * @module Aggregator/Manifest
  * @description Public re-exports for the manifest bounded context.
  */
-export type { Manifest, ManifestFiles, ManifestHistoryEntry, ManifestMetadataOverride, MetadataManifest, } from './types.js';
+export type { HorizonProfile, Manifest, ManifestFiles, ManifestHistoryEntry, ManifestMetadataOverride, MetadataManifest, } from './types.js';
 export { resolveArticleType, resolveDate, resolveRunId, latestGateResult, flattenManifestFiles, UNKNOWN_ARTICLE_TYPE, } from './resolver.js';
 export { readManifest, parseManifest, type ReadManifestResult } from './reader.js';
+export { applyHorizonProfile, buildHorizonProfile } from './manifest-writer.js';
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.d.ts.map

package/scripts/aggregator/manifest/index.js

@@ -2,4 +2,5 @@
 // SPDX-License-Identifier: Apache-2.0
 export { resolveArticleType, resolveDate, resolveRunId, latestGateResult, flattenManifestFiles, UNKNOWN_ARTICLE_TYPE, } from './resolver.js';
 export { readManifest, parseManifest } from './reader.js';
+export { applyHorizonProfile, buildHorizonProfile } from './manifest-writer.js';
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/scripts/aggregator/manifest/manifest-writer.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+import type { HorizonProfile, Manifest } from './types.js';
+/**
+ * Build a {@link HorizonProfile} for the given article-type slug from the
+ * canonical {@link import('../../config/article-horizons.js').ARTICLE_HORIZONS}
+ * registry.
+ *
+ * `horizonDays` derivation:
+ *  - `forward` / `backward` → `dataWindow.days`
+ *  - `span` / `point`        → `forwardStatementsHorizonDays` (covers
+ *    `election-cycle` → 1825, `breaking` → 0, etc.)
+ *  - When `dataWindow.days` is absent (e.g. `point`) the
+ *    `forwardStatementsHorizonDays` fallback applies regardless of direction.
+ *
+ * @param articleType - Article-type slug (e.g. `month-ahead`,
+ *                      `election-cycle`). Legacy / unknown slugs return
+ *                      `undefined` so the manifest writer treats them as
+ *                      no-ops.
+ * @returns The matching {@link HorizonProfile}, or `undefined` when the
+ *          slug does not resolve to a registry entry.
+ */
+export declare function buildHorizonProfile(articleType: string | undefined): HorizonProfile | undefined;
+/**
+ * Return a copy of the manifest with `horizonProfile` populated from the
+ * article-horizons registry.
+ *
+ * Behaviour matrix:
+ *   - Slug resolves to a registry entry → `horizonProfile` is set from
+ *     {@link buildHorizonProfile}.
+ *   - Slug is legacy / unknown (no registry entry) AND `overwrite` is
+ *     `true` → any existing `horizonProfile` is **stripped** so the
+ *     "absent for unknown slugs" invariant holds even when the registry
+ *     evolves (e.g. a slug is removed) or a manifest carries a stale
+ *     value from a previous registry version.
+ *   - Slug is legacy / unknown AND `overwrite` is `false` → no-op.
+ *   - An existing `horizonProfile` is present AND `overwrite` is `false`
+ *     → no-op (forward-compat: respect a manifest-supplied value).
+ *
+ * The function is pure — the input manifest is never mutated.
+ *
+ * @param manifest - Manifest to enrich.
+ * @param options - Behaviour options.
+ * @param options.overwrite - When `true`, replaces (or strips) any
+ *                            existing `horizonProfile`. Default `false`.
+ * @returns A new manifest with `horizonProfile` set or removed, or the
+ *          original manifest reference when no change applies.
+ */
+export declare function applyHorizonProfile(manifest: Manifest, options?: {
+    readonly overwrite?: boolean;
+}): Manifest;
+//# sourceMappingURL=manifest-writer.d.ts.map

package/scripts/aggregator/manifest/manifest-writer.js

@@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
+// SPDX-FileCopyrightText: 2024-2026 Hack23 AB
+// SPDX-License-Identifier: Apache-2.0
+/**
+ * @module Aggregator/Manifest/Writer
+ * @description Helpers that mutate or enrich an in-memory {@link Manifest}
+ * before it is serialised to `manifest.json`. The current writer surface is
+ * intentionally narrow — it only owns the {@link HorizonProfile} bucket
+ * derived from the canonical article-horizons registry. Workflows still
+ * write the rest of the manifest (articleType, runId, history) directly
+ * through `mergeManifestHistory` and equivalent shell helpers.
+ */
+import { getHorizonConfig } from '../../config/article-horizons.js';
+import { resolveArticleType } from './resolver.js';
+/**
+ * Build a {@link HorizonProfile} for the given article-type slug from the
+ * canonical {@link import('../../config/article-horizons.js').ARTICLE_HORIZONS}
+ * registry.
+ *
+ * `horizonDays` derivation:
+ *  - `forward` / `backward` → `dataWindow.days`
+ *  - `span` / `point`        → `forwardStatementsHorizonDays` (covers
+ *    `election-cycle` → 1825, `breaking` → 0, etc.)
+ *  - When `dataWindow.days` is absent (e.g. `point`) the
+ *    `forwardStatementsHorizonDays` fallback applies regardless of direction.
+ *
+ * @param articleType - Article-type slug (e.g. `month-ahead`,
+ *                      `election-cycle`). Legacy / unknown slugs return
+ *                      `undefined` so the manifest writer treats them as
+ *                      no-ops.
+ * @returns The matching {@link HorizonProfile}, or `undefined` when the
+ *          slug does not resolve to a registry entry.
+ */
+export function buildHorizonProfile(articleType) {
+    if (!articleType)
+        return undefined;
+    const cfg = getHorizonConfig(articleType);
+    if (!cfg)
+        return undefined;
+    const { direction, days } = cfg.dataWindow;
+    const useFallback = direction === 'span' || direction === 'point' || days === undefined;
+    const horizonDays = useFallback ? cfg.forwardStatementsHorizonDays : days;
+    return Object.freeze({
+        horizonDays,
+        electoralOverlay: cfg.electoralOverlay,
+    });
+}
+/**
+ * Return a copy of the manifest with `horizonProfile` populated from the
+ * article-horizons registry.
+ *
+ * Behaviour matrix:
+ *   - Slug resolves to a registry entry → `horizonProfile` is set from
+ *     {@link buildHorizonProfile}.
+ *   - Slug is legacy / unknown (no registry entry) AND `overwrite` is
+ *     `true` → any existing `horizonProfile` is **stripped** so the
+ *     "absent for unknown slugs" invariant holds even when the registry
+ *     evolves (e.g. a slug is removed) or a manifest carries a stale
+ *     value from a previous registry version.
+ *   - Slug is legacy / unknown AND `overwrite` is `false` → no-op.
+ *   - An existing `horizonProfile` is present AND `overwrite` is `false`
+ *     → no-op (forward-compat: respect a manifest-supplied value).
+ *
+ * The function is pure — the input manifest is never mutated.
+ *
+ * @param manifest - Manifest to enrich.
+ * @param options - Behaviour options.
+ * @param options.overwrite - When `true`, replaces (or strips) any
+ *                            existing `horizonProfile`. Default `false`.
+ * @returns A new manifest with `horizonProfile` set or removed, or the
+ *          original manifest reference when no change applies.
+ */
+export function applyHorizonProfile(manifest, options = {}) {
+    if (manifest.horizonProfile && !options.overwrite)
+        return manifest;
+    const articleType = resolveArticleType(manifest);
+    const profile = buildHorizonProfile(articleType);
+    if (!profile) {
+        // Slug is legacy / unknown. With overwrite=true we must actively
+        // strip any stale `horizonProfile` to honour the documented
+        // "absent for unknown slugs" invariant.
+        if (options.overwrite && manifest.horizonProfile) {
+            const { horizonProfile: _stale, ...rest } = manifest;
+            return rest;
+        }
+        return manifest;
+    }
+    return { ...manifest, horizonProfile: profile };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=manifest-writer.js.map