dsh-compound-engineering 0.0.0-stage → 0.1.1

package/skills/ce-babysit-pr/scripts/pr-snapshot

@@ -0,0 +1,3656 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Deterministic snapshot + state helper for ce-babysit-pr.
+
+The agent (SKILL.md) owns judgment and mutations; this script owns the parts
+prose cannot do reliably: a combined fetch of both event streams, atomic state
+read/write under a file lock, and dedup keyed on remote truth.
+
+The dedup model is claim -> act -> confirm. `snapshot` never marks an item
+handled just because it observed it; an item stays actionable until either the
+agent confirms it acted (`mark`) OR remote truth removes it (a resolved thread
+drops out of the unresolved fetch). So if a resolve/debug pass crashes or fails
+before the agent marks it, the item is still actionable on the next tick.
+
+Subcommands:
+  snapshot --pr N [--repo O/R] --state-dir DIR [--fetch-file F]
+           Fetch (or load F), diff against on-disk state, persist the
+           observed state atomically, emit the actionable set as JSON.
+  mark     --state-dir DIR --invocation-id ID --session-started-at TIME
+           --invocation-budget-seconds N (--thread ID --disposition open|dispatched
+           | --comment ID --disposition open|dispatched | --check KEY
+           | --disposition needs-human --residual-file FILE
+           | --answer-decision ID --answer-file FILE)
+           A residual-only needs-human mark atomically freezes every source observation
+           in FILE under one decision. Sources retain their ordinary dispositions.
+           Record that the agent acted on an item. A `dispatched` thread is
+           re-emitted when a later reviewer comment moves its last-comment
+           identity past the one we acted on (our own reply does not
+           re-trigger). A non-thread feedback item never drops out of
+           the fetch on its own, so `--comment` is the only way to silence a
+           handled one. A new head SHA clears dispatched CI checks.
+
+--fetch-file injects a pre-captured combined snapshot instead of calling gh,
+so the diff logic is testable without a live PR.
+"""
+import argparse
+import errno
+import hashlib
+import json
+import os
+import re
+import signal
+import subprocess
+import sys
+import tempfile
+import threading
+import time
+import uuid
+from contextlib import contextmanager
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+from urllib.parse import quote, urlsplit
+
+IS_WINDOWS = sys.platform == "win32"
+
+if IS_WINDOWS:
+    import msvcrt
+else:
+    import fcntl
+
+# Conclusions that mean "this check needs attention" (failing states).
+FAILING = {"FAILURE", "TIMED_OUT", "CANCELLED", "ACTION_REQUIRED", "STARTUP_FAILURE", "STALE"}
+TERMINAL_CHECK_CONCLUSIONS = {
+    "ACTION_REQUIRED", "CANCELLED", "FAILURE", "NEUTRAL", "SKIPPED", "STALE",
+    "STARTUP_FAILURE", "SUCCESS", "TIMED_OUT",
+}
+
+DISPOSITION_OPEN = "open"
+DISPOSITION_NEEDS_HUMAN = "needs-human"
+DISPOSITION_DISPATCHED = "dispatched"
+NEEDS_HUMAN_SOURCE_KINDS = {"thread", "comment", "review", "check", "currency"}
+CURRENCY_CLAIMED = "claimed"
+CURRENCY_CONFIRMED = "confirmed"
+CURRENCY_OUTCOME_MUTATION_OBSERVED = "mutation-observed"
+CURRENCY_OUTCOME_PROVEN_NO_MUTATION = "proven-no-mutation"
+CURRENCY_OUTCOME_AMBIGUOUS = "ambiguous"
+CURRENCY_ATTENTION_CLAIM = "claim"
+CURRENCY_ATTENTION_DECIDE = "decide"
+CURRENCY_ATTENTION_INSPECT = "inspect"
+CURRENCY_ATTENTION_RECONCILE = "reconcile"
+
+MANAGER_CONFIRMED = "confirmed"
+MANAGER_ABSENT = "absent"
+MANAGER_PROBE_ERROR = "probe-error"
+RELATIONSHIP_DEPENDENT = "dependent"
+RELATIONSHIP_INDEPENDENT = "independent"
+RELATIONSHIP_PROBE_ERROR = "probe-error"
+BASE_REF_CURRENT = "current"
+BASE_REF_RACE = "race"
+BASE_REF_STALE_COMPUTATION = "stale-computation"
+# GitHub can leave potentialMergeCommit parented on the old base indefinitely after main moves
+# (observed 20+ min on tmchow/pr-stack-test, unrefreshed by polls or a body PATCH). Once the live
+# base is stable this long with the same head, the cached CLEAN/DIRTY verdict is accepted with a
+# disclosure instead of blocking readiness forever.
+STALE_MERGE_COMPUTATION_SECONDS = 600
+BASE_REF_MERGEABILITY_PENDING = "mergeability-pending"
+BASE_REF_PROBE_ERROR = "probe-error"
+BASE_REF_LEGACY_STALE = "stale"
+
+# Quiet window a merge-ready wake ordinarily requires. The agent widens it by re-arming when it
+# judges more waiting is warranted; the engine never adjusts the window it was given.
+DEFAULT_SETTLE_SECONDS = 300.0
+
+# Quiet window before a comment-only wake. Every non-empty top-level body is a candidate the
+# resolver must classify, so waking on the first one spends a full ce-resolve-pr-feedback dispatch
+# to conclude "status noise". Only this reason waits; real work never consults the clock.
+FEEDBACK_COALESCE_SECONDS = 180
+
+# Trajectory check-history states (persisted, compared by ==).
+CHECK_UNKNOWN = "unknown"
+CHECK_CLEAR = "clear"
+CHECK_FAILING = "failing"
+# Trajectory single-stream activity labels.
+STREAM_CI = "ci"
+STREAM_REVIEW = "review"
+# Keep a check's recurrence memory across a transient absence (a one-tick gap from a
+# workflow-registration lag or a paths-filtered run), but bound growth: evict entries
+# unseen for this many ticks.
+CHECK_HISTORY_TTL = 30
+
+# One invocation is a bounded monitoring shift, not the lifetime of the PR. Eight hours covers a
+# maximum-length GitHub-hosted Actions job (six hours) plus reaction and settle time. Callers may
+# choose another fixed value on the first snapshot; later commands must present the same value.
+DEFAULT_INVOCATION_BUDGET_SECONDS = 8 * 60 * 60
+# The 8h budget is spent in *active watch-capability time*, not raw wall-clock: a span where the
+# whole watch process was suspended (laptop asleep) is excluded. Detection is coarse — an activity
+# gap wider than this threshold (well above the 150s poll interval) is charged to dead time, minus
+# the threshold itself so ordinary polls/ticks never register. The 3-day backstop stays wall-clock.
+DEAD_TIME_THRESHOLD_SECONDS = 15 * 60
+DEFAULT_INVOCATION_BACKSTOP_SECONDS = 3 * 24 * 60 * 60
+CURRENCY_RETRY_BACKOFF_SECONDS = 30
+
+
+# --- cross-platform state primitives ------------------------------------------
+#
+# The watcher needs three POSIX facilities that native Windows Python does not
+# have: an advisory file lock (fcntl.flock), a process-identity probe for the
+# PID-reuse guard (`ps -o lstart=`), and an unconditional rename. Each Windows
+# analog differs in a way that matters here, so each is named rather than
+# translated literally. See
+# docs/solutions/architecture-patterns/posix-process-supervision-on-native-windows.md.
+
+# Poll spacing while waiting on a Windows lock or a blocked rename.
+_WIN_RETRY_SECONDS = 0.05
+# Bound only the rename retry. A lock wait is unbounded, matching flock.
+_WIN_REPLACE_TIMEOUT_SECONDS = 10.0
+
+if IS_WINDOWS:
+    import ctypes
+    from ctypes import wintypes
+
+    _kernel32 = ctypes.WinDLL("kernel32", use_last_error=True)
+    _PROCESS_QUERY_LIMITED_INFORMATION = 0x1000
+
+    # Declare argtypes/restype explicitly: without them ctypes truncates HANDLEs
+    # to 32-bit ints on Win64, so a valid handle silently becomes a bad one.
+    _kernel32.OpenProcess.argtypes = [wintypes.DWORD, wintypes.BOOL, wintypes.DWORD]
+    _kernel32.OpenProcess.restype = wintypes.HANDLE
+    _kernel32.CloseHandle.argtypes = [wintypes.HANDLE]
+    _kernel32.CloseHandle.restype = wintypes.BOOL
+    _kernel32.GetProcessTimes.argtypes = [
+        wintypes.HANDLE, ctypes.POINTER(wintypes.FILETIME),
+        ctypes.POINTER(wintypes.FILETIME), ctypes.POINTER(wintypes.FILETIME),
+        ctypes.POINTER(wintypes.FILETIME)]
+    _kernel32.GetProcessTimes.restype = wintypes.BOOL
+    _kernel32.QueryFullProcessImageNameW.argtypes = [
+        wintypes.HANDLE, wintypes.DWORD, wintypes.LPWSTR,
+        ctypes.POINTER(wintypes.DWORD)]
+    _kernel32.QueryFullProcessImageNameW.restype = wintypes.BOOL
+
+    def _win_process_identity(pid):
+        """Creation time plus image path — the Windows analog of `ps -o lstart= -o command=`.
+
+        Creation time is the part that makes this a PID-reuse guard: Windows recycles PIDs
+        aggressively, and a recycled PID always carries a later creation time than the watcher
+        we recorded. Returns None when the process is gone or unopenable, which the caller
+        treats as "identity not proven" and declines to act on."""
+        handle = _kernel32.OpenProcess(_PROCESS_QUERY_LIMITED_INFORMATION, False, pid)
+        if not handle:
+            return None
+        try:
+            created, exited, kernel, user = (wintypes.FILETIME() for _ in range(4))
+            if not _kernel32.GetProcessTimes(
+                    handle, ctypes.byref(created), ctypes.byref(exited),
+                    ctypes.byref(kernel), ctypes.byref(user)):
+                return None
+            started = (created.dwHighDateTime << 32) | created.dwLowDateTime
+            if not started:
+                return None
+            size = wintypes.DWORD(32768)
+            buf = ctypes.create_unicode_buffer(size.value)
+            image = (buf.value if _kernel32.QueryFullProcessImageNameW(
+                handle, 0, buf, ctypes.byref(size)) else "")
+        finally:
+            _kernel32.CloseHandle(handle)
+        return "{} {}".format(started, image)
+
+
+def _lock_acquire(fd, exclusive):
+    """Block until this process owns the lock file.
+
+    msvcrt.locking is the Windows analog of flock, with three differences. It locks a byte range
+    from the current offset rather than the whole file, so the offset is pinned to 0. It has no
+    shared mode, so a reader takes the same exclusive lock a writer does — free here, because every
+    critical section is a small local read/write with the network fetch already completed outside
+    the lock. And its blocking mode (LK_LOCK) gives up after roughly ten seconds instead of waiting,
+    so retrying the non-blocking mode is what actually reproduces flock's wait-for-the-holder
+    behavior. As on POSIX, the OS releases the lock if a holder dies, so a crash cannot wedge this."""
+    if not IS_WINDOWS:
+        fcntl.flock(fd, fcntl.LOCK_EX if exclusive else fcntl.LOCK_SH)
+        return
+    os.lseek(fd, 0, os.SEEK_SET)
+    while True:
+        try:
+            msvcrt.locking(fd, msvcrt.LK_NBLCK, 1)
+            return
+        except OSError as e:
+            # Retry only genuine contention. msvcrt reports a held range as EACCES; anything
+            # else (EBADF from a closed descriptor, EINVAL from a bad range) is a defect that
+            # retrying cannot clear, and swallowing it here would spin this loop forever with
+            # no output — a silent hang, which for a watcher is indistinguishable from the
+            # "monitoring is quietly not running" failure this port exists to fix.
+            if e.errno != errno.EACCES:
+                raise
+            time.sleep(_WIN_RETRY_SECONDS)
+
+
+def _lock_release(fd):
+    if not IS_WINDOWS:
+        fcntl.flock(fd, fcntl.LOCK_UN)
+        return
+    os.lseek(fd, 0, os.SEEK_SET)
+    try:
+        msvcrt.locking(fd, msvcrt.LK_UNLCK, 1)
+    except OSError:
+        pass
+
+
+@contextmanager
+def _state_lock(state_dir, exclusive=True):
+    """Serialize access to the state dir for the duration of the body."""
+    os.makedirs(state_dir, exist_ok=True)
+    # O_RDWR|O_CREAT rather than a truncating open("w"): on Windows, truncating a file another
+    # process holds a byte-range lock on fails, which would make lock acquisition itself the race.
+    fd = os.open(os.path.join(state_dir, "lock"), os.O_RDWR | os.O_CREAT, 0o600)
+    try:
+        _lock_acquire(fd, exclusive)
+        try:
+            yield
+        finally:
+            _lock_release(fd)
+    finally:
+        os.close(fd)
+
+
+def _replace_atomic(src, dst):
+    """Atomically move `src` onto `dst`.
+
+    POSIX rename always succeeds over an open destination. Windows refuses while any other handle
+    to `dst` is open, so an unlocked best-effort reader — or a virus scanner that opened the file
+    behind us — would otherwise turn a routine concurrent read into a crashed writer. Retry briefly
+    rather than treating that transient sharing violation as a failure."""
+    if not IS_WINDOWS:
+        os.replace(src, dst)
+        return
+    deadline = time.monotonic() + _WIN_REPLACE_TIMEOUT_SECONDS
+    while True:
+        try:
+            os.replace(src, dst)
+            return
+        except PermissionError:
+            if time.monotonic() >= deadline:
+                raise
+            time.sleep(_WIN_RETRY_SECONDS)
+
+
+class _WatchSuperseded(Exception):
+    """Internal control flow: this watch lost ownership and must unwind immediately."""
+
+
+class _InvocationSuperseded(Exception):
+    """Internal control flow: this watch belongs to an invocation that was replaced."""
+
+    def __init__(self, current_invocation_id):
+        self.current_invocation_id = current_invocation_id
+
+
+def _now():
+    return datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+
+
+def _iso(dt):
+    return dt.isoformat()
+
+
+def _run(cmd):
+    # gh honors CLICOLOR_FORCE / GH_FORCE_TTY even for --json output, and a host that exports them
+    # (observed under orca) makes every JSON read unparsable. Pin plain output regardless of caller env.
+    env = os.environ.copy()
+    env["NO_COLOR"] = "1"
+    env.pop("CLICOLOR_FORCE", None)
+    env.pop("GH_FORCE_TTY", None)
+    return subprocess.run(cmd, capture_output=True, text=True, encoding="utf-8", env=env)
+
+
+def _run_git(cmd):
+    env = os.environ.copy()
+    env["GIT_TERMINAL_PROMPT"] = "0"
+    env["GCM_INTERACTIVE"] = "never"
+    env["GIT_ASKPASS"] = ""
+    env["SSH_ASKPASS"] = ""
+    return subprocess.run(
+        cmd, capture_output=True, text=True, encoding="utf-8", env=env, timeout=30,
+    )
+
+
+def _run_checked(cmd, label):
+    r = _run(cmd)
+    if r.returncode != 0:
+        raise SystemExit(f"{label} failed: {r.stderr.strip()}")
+    return r
+
+
+def _split_repo(repo):
+    """Parse "[HOST/]OWNER/NAME" into (owner, name), or (None, None). A host-qualified ref (gh's
+    documented `[HOST/]OWNER/REPO` selector) drops the host — the last two segments are what the
+    GraphQL lookup needs; treating the host as the owner would query a nonexistent repo on GHE."""
+    if not repo:
+        return None, None
+    parts = repo.strip("/").split("/")
+    if len(parts) >= 2:
+        return parts[-2], parts[-1]
+    return None, None
+
+
+def _resolve_repo_ref(repo, url):
+    """Resolve (owner, name, host) from --repo + the PR url, else one `gh repo view` call.
+    The host is parsed from the url and threaded into every `gh api` call so a GitHub Enterprise
+    PR queries the right host — without it, `gh api` defaults to github.com and a GHE babysitter
+    fetches the PR via `gh pr view` but then reads review threads / workflow runs from github.com.
+    Parsing the url (already fetched by `fetch`) also avoids a redundant `gh repo view` per tick."""
+    owner, name = _split_repo(repo)
+    host = None
+    if url:
+        # https://<host>/OWNER/NAME/pull/N
+        parts = url.rstrip("/").split("/")
+        if len(parts) >= 5 and parts[0].startswith("http"):
+            host = parts[2]
+            if not owner:
+                owner, name = parts[-4], parts[-3]
+    if not owner:
+        r = _run(["gh", "repo", "view", "--json", "owner,name"])
+        if r.returncode == 0:
+            info = json.loads(r.stdout)
+            owner, name = info.get("owner", {}).get("login"), info.get("name")
+    if not owner or not name:
+        raise SystemExit("could not resolve owner/repo; pass --repo OWNER/REPO")
+    return owner, name, host
+
+
+def _host_args(host):
+    """`gh api --hostname` selector so GHE calls hit the PR's host, not the default github.com."""
+    return ["--hostname", host] if host else []
+
+
+def _api_json(path, host=None):
+    """Best-effort JSON API read. An incomplete corroboration must stay pending."""
+    result = _run(["gh", "api", *_host_args(host), path])
+    if result.returncode != 0:
+        return None
+    try:
+        value = json.loads(result.stdout)
+    except (TypeError, json.JSONDecodeError):
+        return None
+    return value if isinstance(value, dict) else None
+
+
+def _actions_run_and_check_id(details_url, owner, name, host):
+    """Return trusted Actions run/check IDs only for this repository's canonical job URL."""
+    if not isinstance(details_url, str):
+        return None
+    parsed = urlsplit(details_url)
+    expected_host = (host or "github.com").lower()
+    if parsed.scheme != "https" or parsed.netloc.lower() != expected_host:
+        return None
+    match = re.fullmatch(
+        rf"/{re.escape(owner)}/{re.escape(name)}/actions/runs/(\d+)/job/(\d+)/?",
+        parsed.path,
+    )
+    if not match:
+        return None
+    return int(match.group(1)), int(match.group(2))
+
+
+def _same_head(value, head):
+    return isinstance(value, str) and isinstance(head, str) and value.lower() == head.lower()
+
+
+def _corroborated_terminal_check_status(check, owner, name, head, host):
+    """Normalize only GitHub's impossible running-but-concluded CheckRun tuple.
+
+    A CheckRun remains pending unless its own REST record, linked check suite, and
+    parent Actions workflow all report the same terminal conclusion on this exact
+    PR head. This intentionally adds no best-effort success inference.
+    """
+    if check.get("__typename") != "CheckRun":
+        return None
+    status = str(check.get("status") or "").upper()
+    conclusion = str(check.get("conclusion") or "").upper()
+    if status != "IN_PROGRESS" or not check.get("completedAt") or conclusion not in TERMINAL_CHECK_CONCLUSIONS:
+        return None
+
+    identifiers = _actions_run_and_check_id(check.get("detailsUrl"), owner, name, host)
+    if identifiers is None:
+        return None
+    workflow_run_id, job_id = identifiers
+    database_id = check.get("databaseId")
+    if database_id is not None and database_id != job_id:
+        return None
+    check_id = database_id or job_id
+    if not isinstance(check_id, int):
+        return None
+
+    check_run = _api_json(f"repos/{owner}/{name}/check-runs/{check_id}", host)
+    if not check_run or not _same_head(check_run.get("head_sha"), head):
+        return None
+    if (str(check_run.get("conclusion") or "").upper() != conclusion
+            or not check_run.get("completed_at")):
+        return None
+    suite_id = (check_run.get("check_suite") or {}).get("id")
+    if not isinstance(suite_id, int):
+        return None
+
+    job = _api_json(f"repos/{owner}/{name}/actions/jobs/{job_id}", host)
+    if (not job
+            or job.get("id") != job_id
+            or not _same_head(job.get("head_sha"), head)
+            or str(job.get("conclusion") or "").upper() != conclusion
+            or not job.get("completed_at")):
+        return None
+
+    suite = _api_json(f"repos/{owner}/{name}/check-suites/{suite_id}", host)
+    workflow = _api_json(f"repos/{owner}/{name}/actions/runs/{workflow_run_id}", host)
+    for parent in (suite, workflow):
+        if (not parent
+                or not _same_head(parent.get("head_sha"), head)
+                or str(parent.get("status") or "").upper() != "COMPLETED"
+                or str(parent.get("conclusion") or "").upper() != conclusion):
+            return None
+    return "COMPLETED"
+
+
+def _valid_oid(value):
+    return isinstance(value, str) and bool(
+        re.fullmatch(r"(?:[0-9a-fA-F]{40}|[0-9a-fA-F]{64})", value))
+
+
+def fetch_pr_merge_identity(pr, owner, name, host=None):
+    """Read mergeability and the identities it was computed from in one GraphQL observation."""
+    query = """
+query($owner:String!,$repo:String!,$pr:Int!){
+  repository(owner:$owner,name:$repo){ pullRequest(number:$pr){
+    mergeable mergeStateStatus headRefOid baseRefOid baseRefName viewerCanUpdateBranch
+    baseRef { target { oid } }
+    headRef { target { ... on Commit { parents(first:2) { nodes { oid } } } } }
+    potentialMergeCommit { oid parents(first:2) { nodes { oid } } }
+  } }
+}"""
+    r = _run(["gh", "api", "graphql", *_host_args(host), "-f", f"owner={owner}",
+              "-f", f"repo={name}", "-F", f"pr={pr}", "-f", f"query={query}"])
+    if r.returncode != 0:
+        return None
+    try:
+        value = json.loads(r.stdout)["data"]["repository"]["pullRequest"]
+    except (KeyError, TypeError, ValueError, json.JSONDecodeError):
+        return None
+    return value if isinstance(value, dict) else None
+
+
+def fetch_base_ref(owner, name, ref, merge_identity, host=None):
+    """Bind GitHub's mergeability observation to an independently probed current base ref.
+
+    `baseRefOid` is retained only as historical PR metadata. Current identity comes from both the
+    PR's `baseRef.target.oid` and an exact Git-ref read; a usable generated test merge must then
+    name that base and the observed PR head as its two parents. Some valid private-repository OAuth
+    sessions return 404 from the REST Git-ref endpoint, so that response falls back to the Git
+    transport while preserving exact-ref matching and non-interactive failure behavior.
+    """
+    historical_oid = (merge_identity or {}).get("baseRefOid")
+    head_oid = (merge_identity or {}).get("headRefOid")
+    mergeable = (merge_identity or {}).get("mergeable")
+    merge_state_status = (merge_identity or {}).get("mergeStateStatus")
+    graphql_oid = (((merge_identity or {}).get("baseRef") or {}).get("target") or {}).get("oid")
+    potential_merge = (merge_identity or {}).get("potentialMergeCommit")
+    merge_commit_oid = potential_merge.get("oid") if isinstance(potential_merge, dict) else None
+    merge_parent_oids = (((potential_merge or {}).get("parents") or {}).get("nodes")
+                         if isinstance(potential_merge, dict) else None)
+    if isinstance(merge_parent_oids, list):
+        merge_parent_oids = [node.get("oid") if isinstance(node, dict) else None
+                             for node in merge_parent_oids]
+    else:
+        merge_parent_oids = []
+    base = {
+        "host": host or "github.com",
+        "repository": f"{owner}/{name}",
+        "ref": ref,
+        "oid": None,
+        "graphql_oid": graphql_oid,
+        "historical_oid": historical_oid,
+        "merge_commit_oid": merge_commit_oid,
+        "merge_parent_oids": merge_parent_oids,
+        "identity": BASE_REF_PROBE_ERROR,
+    }
+    if not ref:
+        return base
+    encoded_ref = quote(ref, safe="/")
+    r = _run([
+        "gh", "api", *_host_args(host),
+        f"repos/{owner}/{name}/git/ref/heads/{encoded_ref}",
+        "--jq", ".object.sha",
+    ])
+    current_oid = (r.stdout or "").strip()
+    if r.returncode != 0 and re.search(r"\bHTTP\s+404\b", r.stderr or "", re.IGNORECASE):
+        exact_ref = f"refs/heads/{ref}"
+        remote_url = (f"https://{host or 'github.com'}/"
+                      f"{quote(owner, safe='')}/{quote(name, safe='')}.git")
+        try:
+            # Reuse the gh session (GH_TOKEN or keyring) as git's credential source so a
+            # headless host with no configured Git credential helper is not anonymous here.
+            git_result = _run_git([
+                "git", "-c", "core.askPass=",
+                "-c", "credential.helper=",
+                "-c", "credential.helper=!gh auth git-credential",
+                "ls-remote", "--exit-code", "--refs",
+                remote_url, exact_ref,
+            ])
+        except (subprocess.TimeoutExpired, OSError):
+            git_result = None
+        if git_result is not None and git_result.returncode == 0:
+            matches = []
+            for line in (git_result.stdout or "").splitlines():
+                fields = line.split()
+                if len(fields) == 2 and fields[1] == exact_ref and _valid_oid(fields[0]):
+                    matches.append(fields[0])
+            if len(matches) == 1:
+                current_oid = matches[0]
+                r = git_result
+    if r.returncode != 0 or not _valid_oid(current_oid):
+        return base
+    base["oid"] = current_oid
+    if not (_valid_oid(graphql_oid) and _valid_oid(head_oid)):
+        return base
+    if current_oid.lower() != graphql_oid.lower():
+        base["identity"] = BASE_REF_RACE
+        return base
+
+    if mergeable == "MERGEABLE" and merge_state_status not in (None, "UNKNOWN", "DIRTY"):
+        if potential_merge is None:
+            base["identity"] = BASE_REF_MERGEABILITY_PENDING
+            return base
+        if (not _valid_oid(merge_commit_oid) or len(merge_parent_oids) != 2
+                or not all(_valid_oid(oid) for oid in merge_parent_oids)):
+            return base
+        if (merge_parent_oids[0].lower() != current_oid.lower()
+                or merge_parent_oids[1].lower() != head_oid.lower()):
+            base["identity"] = BASE_REF_RACE
+            # Only the base parent lags while head and live base agree: a stale test merge,
+            # eligible for the bounded degrade in diff().
+            base["stale_computation_candidate"] = (
+                merge_parent_oids[1].lower() == head_oid.lower())
+            return base
+    elif not (mergeable == "CONFLICTING" and merge_state_status == "DIRTY"):
+        base["identity"] = BASE_REF_MERGEABILITY_PENDING
+        return base
+
+    base["identity"] = BASE_REF_CURRENT
+    return base
+
+
+def _base_ref_blocker(base):
+    identity = (base or {}).get("identity")
+    if identity is None:
+        # Compatibility for pre-change --fetch-file fixtures and persisted snapshots.
+        identity = (base or {}).get("freshness")
+    if identity in (BASE_REF_CURRENT, BASE_REF_STALE_COMPUTATION):
+        return None
+    if identity in (BASE_REF_RACE, BASE_REF_MERGEABILITY_PENDING):
+        return identity
+    if identity == BASE_REF_LEGACY_STALE:
+        return BASE_REF_LEGACY_STALE
+    return BASE_REF_PROBE_ERROR
+
+
+def _stack_schema_unavailable(stderr):
+    """Recognize only GraphQL schema errors for the private-preview PullRequest stack fields."""
+    unavailable_markers = ("doesn't exist on type", "does not exist on type",
+                           "cannot query field", "unknown field")
+    for line in (stderr or "").splitlines():
+        lowered = line.lower()
+        if ("pullrequest" in lowered
+                and re.search(r"\bstack(?:entry)?\b", lowered)
+                and any(marker in lowered for marker in unavailable_markers)):
+            return True
+    return False
+
+
+def _fetch_default_branch(owner, name, host=None):
+    """Read the default branch without relying on private-preview GraphQL fields."""
+    result = _run(["gh", "api", *_host_args(host), f"repos/{owner}/{name}",
+                   "--jq", ".default_branch"])
+    if result.returncode != 0:
+        return None
+    branch = result.stdout.strip()
+    return branch if branch and branch != "null" else None
+
+
+def _thread_identity(t):
+    """The remote-truth identity of a thread's latest state."""
+    return (t.get("last_comment_id"), t.get("last_comment_at"))
+
+
+def _prior_thread_activity_identity(t):
+    """The last external-review baseline already accepted for this parked thread."""
+    acted_identity = t.get("acted_identity")
+    if (t.get("disposition") in (DISPOSITION_DISPATCHED, DISPOSITION_NEEDS_HUMAN)
+            and isinstance(acted_identity, (list, tuple))
+            and len(acted_identity) == 2):
+        return tuple(acted_identity)
+    return _thread_identity(t)
+
+
+def _default_pr_chain():
+    """Backward-compatible neutral shape for injected/older snapshots with no chain facts."""
+    return {
+        "manager_status": MANAGER_ABSENT,
+        "manager_source": None,
+        "relationship_status": RELATIONSHIP_INDEPENDENT,
+        "trunk": None,
+        "default_branch": None,
+        "current_branch": None,
+        "target_position": None,
+        "target_needs_rebase": None,
+        "upstack_needs_rebase": [],
+        "entries": [],
+        "parent_prs": [],
+        "dependent_prs": [],
+    }
+
+
+def _pr_summary(pr):
+    if not pr:
+        return None
+    return {k: pr.get(k) for k in ("number", "url", "state", "isDraft", "baseRefName", "headRefName")
+            if pr.get(k) is not None}
+
+
+def _pr_url_identity(url):
+    """Normalize a GitHub PR URL to a repository-scoped identity tuple."""
+    if not isinstance(url, str):
+        return None
+    try:
+        parsed = urlsplit(url.strip())
+        parts = [part for part in parsed.path.split("/") if part]
+        if (parsed.scheme.lower() not in ("http", "https") or not parsed.netloc
+                or len(parts) < 4 or parts[-2].lower() != "pull"):
+            return None
+        number = int(parts[-1])
+    except (TypeError, ValueError):
+        return None
+    return (parsed.netloc.lower(), parts[-4].lower(), parts[-3].lower(), number)
+
+
+def _chain_from_entries(entries, pr, source, trunk=None, current_branch=None,
+                        manager_id=None, manager_number=None, target_url=None):
+    """Normalize an ordered manager-owned chain and locate the requested PR within it."""
+    target_identity = _pr_url_identity(target_url) if target_url is not None else None
+    target_index = next((i for i, e in enumerate(entries)
+                         if (e.get("number") == pr or str(e.get("number")) == str(pr))
+                         and (target_url is None
+                              or (target_identity is not None
+                                  and _pr_url_identity(e.get("url")) == target_identity))), None)
+    if target_index is None:
+        return None
+    target = entries[target_index]
+    upstack_stale = [
+        {k: e.get(k) for k in ("number", "position", "name", "url") if e.get(k) is not None}
+        for e in entries[target_index + 1:] if e.get("needs_rebase") is True
+    ]
+    chain = _default_pr_chain()
+    chain.update({
+        "manager_status": MANAGER_CONFIRMED,
+        "manager_source": source,
+        "manager_id": manager_id,
+        "manager_number": manager_number,
+        "relationship_status": RELATIONSHIP_DEPENDENT if len(entries) > 1 else RELATIONSHIP_INDEPENDENT,
+        "trunk": trunk,
+        "current_branch": current_branch,
+        "target_position": target.get("position") or target_index + 1,
+        "target_needs_rebase": target.get("needs_rebase"),
+        "upstack_needs_rebase": upstack_stale,
+        "entries": entries,
+        "parent_prs": [_pr_summary(entries[target_index - 1])] if target_index > 0 else [],
+        "dependent_prs": [_pr_summary(e) for e in entries[target_index + 1:]],
+    })
+    return chain
+
+
+def _chain_from_stack_view(raw, pr, target_url):
+    entries = []
+    for index, branch in enumerate((raw or {}).get("branches") or []):
+        remote_pr = branch.get("pr") or {}
+        entries.append({
+            "position": index + 1,
+            "name": branch.get("name"),
+            "head": branch.get("head"),
+            "base": branch.get("base"),
+            "is_current": bool(branch.get("isCurrent")),
+            "is_merged": bool(branch.get("isMerged")),
+            "is_queued": bool(branch.get("isQueued")),
+            "needs_rebase": branch.get("needsRebase"),
+            "number": remote_pr.get("number"),
+            "url": remote_pr.get("url"),
+            "state": remote_pr.get("state"),
+            "isDraft": remote_pr.get("isDraft"),
+        })
+    return _chain_from_entries(entries, pr, "gh-stack", (raw or {}).get("trunk"),
+                               (raw or {}).get("currentBranch"), target_url=target_url)
+
+
+def _fetch_graphql_stack(pr, owner, name, host=None):
+    """Read-only remote membership fallback. A successful null stack is distinct from failure."""
+    query = """
+query($owner:String!,$repo:String!,$pr:Int!){
+  repository(owner:$owner,name:$repo){
+    defaultBranchRef{ name }
+    pullRequest(number:$pr){
+    stackEntry{ position }
+    stack{ id number size baseRefName
+      entries(first:100){ nodes{ position pullRequest{
+        number url state isDraft baseRefName headRefName headRefOid
+      } } }
+    }
+  } }
+}"""
+    args = ["gh", "api", "graphql", *_host_args(host), "-f", f"owner={owner}", "-f", f"repo={name}",
+            "-F", f"pr={pr}", "-f", f"query={query}"]
+    r = _run(args)
+    if r.returncode != 0:
+        if _stack_schema_unavailable(r.stderr):
+            default_branch = _fetch_default_branch(owner, name, host)
+            if default_branch:
+                return MANAGER_ABSENT, None, default_branch
+        return MANAGER_PROBE_ERROR, None, None
+    try:
+        repository = json.loads(r.stdout)["data"]["repository"]
+        default_branch = (repository.get("defaultBranchRef") or {}).get("name")
+        node = repository["pullRequest"]
+        stack = node.get("stack")
+    except (KeyError, TypeError, ValueError, json.JSONDecodeError):
+        return MANAGER_PROBE_ERROR, None, None
+    if stack is None:
+        return MANAGER_ABSENT, None, default_branch
+    entries = []
+    for raw in (stack.get("entries") or {}).get("nodes") or []:
+        remote_pr = raw.get("pullRequest") or {}
+        entries.append({
+            "position": raw.get("position"),
+            "name": remote_pr.get("headRefName"),
+            "head": remote_pr.get("headRefOid"),
+            "base_ref_name": remote_pr.get("baseRefName"),
+            "needs_rebase": None,
+            **(_pr_summary(remote_pr) or {}),
+        })
+    chain = _chain_from_entries(entries, pr, "graphql", stack.get("baseRefName"),
+                                manager_id=stack.get("id"), manager_number=stack.get("number"))
+    return ((MANAGER_CONFIRMED, chain, default_branch) if chain
+            else (MANAGER_PROBE_ERROR, None, default_branch))
+
+
+def _manual_relationships(pr, repo, base_ref_name, head_ref_name, owner, name,
+                          host=None, default_branch=None):
+    """Find ordinary parent/children with narrow read-only branch filters."""
+    repo_ref = repo or f"{owner}/{name}"
+    if host and repo_ref.count("/") == 1:
+        repo_ref = f"{host}/{repo_ref}"
+    fields = "number,url,state,isDraft,baseRefName,headRefName"
+    parent_result = None
+    if base_ref_name and base_ref_name != default_branch:
+        parent_result = _run(["gh", "pr", "list", "--repo", repo_ref, "--state", "all",
+                              "--head", base_ref_name, "--limit", "20", "--json", fields])
+    dependent_result = _run(["gh", "pr", "list", "--repo", repo_ref, "--state", "open",
+                             "--base", head_ref_name or "", "--limit", "100", "--json", fields])
+    if ((parent_result is not None and parent_result.returncode != 0)
+            or dependent_result.returncode != 0):
+        return RELATIONSHIP_PROBE_ERROR, [], []
+    try:
+        parent_candidates = json.loads(parent_result.stdout) or [] if parent_result else []
+        dependent_candidates = json.loads(dependent_result.stdout) or []
+    except (TypeError, ValueError, json.JSONDecodeError):
+        return RELATIONSHIP_PROBE_ERROR, [], []
+    parents = [_pr_summary(p) for p in parent_candidates
+               if p.get("number") != pr and p.get("headRefName") == base_ref_name]
+    dependents = [_pr_summary(p) for p in dependent_candidates
+                  if p.get("number") != pr and p.get("state") == "OPEN"
+                  and p.get("baseRefName") == head_ref_name]
+    status = RELATIONSHIP_DEPENDENT if parents or dependents else RELATIONSHIP_INDEPENDENT
+    return status, parents, dependents
+
+
+def fetch_pr_chain(pr, repo, url, base_ref_name, head_ref_name, owner, name, host=None):
+    """Classify manager membership and ordinary dependency relationships without mutation.
+
+    The local manager is the fast/rich path, but its output is accepted only when it contains the
+    requested PR. `gh stack view` has no target argument and may describe a different current stack.
+    """
+    local = _run(["gh", "stack", "view", "--json"])
+    if local.returncode == 0:
+        try:
+            chain = _chain_from_stack_view(json.loads(local.stdout), pr, url)
+        except (TypeError, ValueError, json.JSONDecodeError):
+            chain = None
+        if chain:
+            return chain
+
+    manager_status, chain, default_branch = _fetch_graphql_stack(pr, owner, name, host)
+    if manager_status == MANAGER_CONFIRMED:
+        chain["default_branch"] = default_branch
+        return chain
+
+    relationship, parents, dependents = _manual_relationships(
+        pr, repo, base_ref_name, head_ref_name, owner, name, host, default_branch)
+    result = _default_pr_chain()
+    result.update({
+        "manager_status": manager_status,
+        "relationship_status": relationship,
+        "default_branch": default_branch,
+        "parent_prs": parents,
+        "dependent_prs": dependents,
+    })
+    return result
+
+
+def fetch(pr, repo, light=False):
+    """Fetch both event streams via gh into one combined snapshot dict. `light` skips the probes a
+    downstack signature never reads (merge identity/base ref, eyes reactions, awaiting-approval)."""
+    repo_args = ["--repo", repo] if repo else []
+    view = _run_checked(["gh", "pr", "view", str(pr), *repo_args, "--json",
+                         "state,mergeable,mergeStateStatus,reviewDecision,headRefOid,baseRefName,headRefName,url,number,isDraft,"
+                         "statusCheckRollup,author,comments,reviews"],
+                        "gh pr view")
+    v = json.loads(view.stdout)
+
+    owner, name, host = _resolve_repo_ref(repo, v.get("url"))
+    head = v.get("headRefOid")
+    checks = []
+    for c in v.get("statusCheckRollup") or []:
+        # CheckRun entries carry startedAt/completedAt; StatusContext (legacy commit statuses)
+        # carry createdAt. Preserve the provider's real creation identity for rerun reconciliation.
+        if c.get("__typename") == "StatusContext":
+            check_name = c.get("context") or "status"
+            state = (c.get("state") or "").upper()
+            checks.append({
+                "key": check_name, "name": check_name,
+                "status": "COMPLETED" if state in ("SUCCESS", "FAILURE", "ERROR") else "IN_PROGRESS",
+                "conclusion": {"ERROR": "FAILURE"}.get(state, state) or None,
+                "details_url": c.get("targetUrl"),
+                "created_at": c.get("createdAt"),
+                "started_at": None,
+                "completed_at": None,
+            })
+        else:
+            wf = c.get("workflowName")
+            check_name = c.get("name") or "check"
+            status = (c.get("status") or "").upper() or "IN_PROGRESS"
+            corroborated_status = None if light else _corroborated_terminal_check_status(
+                c, owner, name, head, host)
+            if corroborated_status:
+                status = corroborated_status
+            checks.append({
+                "key": f"{wf}/{check_name}" if wf else check_name, "name": check_name,
+                "status": status,
+                "conclusion": (c.get("conclusion") or None) and c["conclusion"].upper(),
+                "details_url": c.get("detailsUrl"),
+                "created_at": None,
+                "started_at": c.get("startedAt"),
+                "completed_at": c.get("completedAt"),
+            })
+
+    merge_identity = None if light else fetch_pr_merge_identity(v.get("number") or pr, owner, name, host)
+    merge_observation = merge_identity or v
+    mergeable = merge_observation.get("mergeable")
+    merge_state_status = merge_observation.get("mergeStateStatus")
+    if light:
+        base = {"host": host or "github.com", "repository": f"{owner}/{name}",
+                "ref": v.get("baseRefName"), "oid": None, "identity": BASE_REF_PROBE_ERROR}
+    else:
+        base = fetch_base_ref(owner, name, v.get("baseRefName"), merge_observation, host)
+    if merge_identity is not None:
+        identity_head = merge_identity.get("headRefOid")
+        identity_base_ref = merge_identity.get("baseRefName")
+        if (not isinstance(identity_base_ref, str)
+                or not (_valid_oid(identity_head) and _valid_oid(head))):
+            base["identity"] = BASE_REF_PROBE_ERROR
+        elif (identity_head.lower() != head.lower()
+                or identity_base_ref != v.get("baseRefName")):
+            # The checks and review payload came from `v`; do not combine them with mergeability
+            # observed for a different head or base branch.
+            base["identity"] = BASE_REF_RACE
+    pr_chain = fetch_pr_chain(v.get("number") or pr, repo, v.get("url"),
+                              v.get("baseRefName"), v.get("headRefName"), owner, name, host)
+    currency_probe = {
+        "mergeable": mergeable,
+        "merge_state_status": merge_state_status,
+        "base": base,
+        "pr_chain": pr_chain,
+    }
+    host_branch_update_capability = "unknown"
+    if (merge_state_status == "BEHIND"
+            and _branch_currency_observation(currency_probe, head) is not None):
+        capability = merge_observation.get("viewerCanUpdateBranch")
+        if isinstance(capability, bool):
+            host_branch_update_capability = capability
+
+    return {
+        "pr_state": v.get("state"),
+        "pr_is_draft": v.get("isDraft"),
+        "mergeable": mergeable,
+        "merge_state_status": merge_state_status,
+        "review_decision": v.get("reviewDecision") or None,
+        "head_sha": head,
+        "base": base,
+        "host_branch_update_capability": host_branch_update_capability,
+        "url": v.get("url"),
+        "checks": checks,
+        "threads": fetch_threads(pr, owner, name, host),
+        # Non-thread feedback: top-level PR comments + review submission bodies. ce-resolve-pr-feedback
+        # handles these too, so a Changes-Requested review body or an actionable top-level comment with
+        # NO inline thread must not be invisible to the loop. Content-actionability is entirely the
+        # resolver's judgment; this deterministic layer keeps every non-empty non-author body.
+        "feedback": _extract_feedback(v),
+        "awaiting_approval": None if light else fetch_awaiting_approval(owner, name, head, host),
+        "head_parents": _head_parents(merge_identity),
+        "pr_chain": pr_chain,
+    }
+
+
+def _body_hash(body):
+    """Edit identity for a top-level comment / review body: `gh pr view --json` exposes no
+    updatedAt, so hash the body. Feeds the external_review_moved activity signal (an edit wakes
+    the watch and extends the settle clock) and `needs-human` reactivation (a human may answer a
+    parked question by editing the same comment), but deliberately NOT `dispatched` reactivation:
+    status bots rewrite their bodies on every push, so edit-keyed reactivation of handled items
+    re-actionized bot comments forever (#1309)."""
+    return hashlib.sha1((body or "").encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()[:16]
+
+
+def _extract_feedback(v):
+    """Every non-empty top-level PR comment and review body, whoever wrote it.
+    `gh pr view --json comments,reviews` returns flat arrays (not GraphQL {nodes}). Content,
+    identity, and surface are evidence for the resolver to judge, not deterministic exclusions --
+    and that includes the PR author, whose own top-level "please rename X" is the ordinary way a
+    human asks an agent-opened PR for a change. Excluding the author here made that request
+    invisible to the tick, so no resolver pass ever ran for it. Loop prevention is the dispatched
+    mark, which silences a candidate permanently once it has been classified, not identity."""
+    out = []
+    for c in v.get("comments") or []:
+        if (c.get("body") or "").strip():
+            out.append({"id": c.get("id"), "kind": "comment",
+                        "author": (c.get("author") or {}).get("login"),
+                        "edit_id": _body_hash(c.get("body"))})
+    for r in v.get("reviews") or []:
+        if (r.get("body") or "").strip():
+            out.append({"id": r.get("id"), "kind": "review",
+                        "author": (r.get("author") or {}).get("login"),
+                        "state": r.get("state"), "edit_id": _body_hash(r.get("body"))})
+    return out
+
+
+def _head_parents(merge_identity):
+    """Parent OIDs of the PR head from the merge-identity GraphQL read, or None when absent. Feeds
+    the unrequested base-merge detector: a two-parent head whose second parent is the base tip,
+    produced without a claimed branch_currency item, is a base-into-head merge nobody asked for."""
+    nodes = ((((merge_identity or {}).get("headRef") or {}).get("target") or {})
+             .get("parents") or {}).get("nodes")
+    if not isinstance(nodes, list):
+        return None
+    oids = [node.get("oid") if isinstance(node, dict) else None for node in nodes]
+    return [str(o).lower() for o in oids if _valid_oid(o)]
+
+
+def fetch_awaiting_approval(owner, name, head, host=None):
+    """Count Actions workflow runs on this head that are awaiting maintainer approval —
+    the fork-PR security gate. Such a run has created NO check-run yet, so it is invisible
+    to statusCheckRollup; without this, a fork PR blocked on approval reads as 'all checks ok'.
+    Best-effort: an API/permission failure returns None so the tick can preserve the
+    last proven gate state rather than treating an unknown result as a proven clear."""
+    if not head:
+        return 0
+    r = _run(["gh", "api", *_host_args(host),
+              f"repos/{owner}/{name}/actions/runs?head_sha={head}&per_page=50",
+              "--jq", '[.workflow_runs[] | select(.status==\"action_required\" or .status==\"waiting\" '
+                      'or .conclusion==\"action_required\")] | length'])
+    if r.returncode != 0:
+        return None
+    try:
+        return int((r.stdout or "").strip() or 0)
+    except ValueError:
+        return None
+
+
+def fetch_threads(pr, owner, name, host=None):
+    """Unresolved review threads with their last-comment identity."""
+    query = """
+query($owner:String!,$repo:String!,$pr:Int!,$cursor:String){
+  repository(owner:$owner,name:$repo){ pullRequest(number:$pr){
+    reviewThreads(first:100,after:$cursor){
+      nodes{ id isResolved path line
+        root: comments(first:1){ nodes{ url } }
+        comments(last:100){ nodes{ id createdAt lastEditedAt } } }
+      pageInfo{ hasNextPage endCursor } } } } }"""
+    out = []
+    cursor = None
+    while True:
+        args = ["gh", "api", "graphql", *_host_args(host), "-f", f"owner={owner}", "-f", f"repo={name}",
+                "-F", f"pr={pr}", "-f", f"query={query}"]
+        if cursor:
+            args += ["-f", f"cursor={cursor}"]
+        r = _run_checked(args, "gh api graphql")
+        data = json.loads(r.stdout)["data"]["repository"]["pullRequest"]["reviewThreads"]
+        for n in data["nodes"]:
+            if n.get("isResolved"):
+                continue
+            cs = n.get("comments", {}).get("nodes") or []
+            last = cs[-1] if cs else {}
+            # `last_comment_at` is the reactivation signal — the MAX edit/create time across every
+            # comment in the thread, not just the last one, so a reviewer editing an *earlier* comment
+            # (their original request) after the agent's reply still moves the identity and re-opens it.
+            # Bounded to the last 100 comments (see the query): review threads are ~never that long; an
+            # edit to a comment outside that window would be missed (acceptable vs paginating per thread).
+            edit_at = max((c.get("lastEditedAt") or c.get("createdAt") or "" for c in cs), default="")
+            root = (n.get("root") or {}).get("nodes") or []
+            out.append({
+                "thread_id": n["id"],
+                "last_comment_id": last.get("id"),
+                "last_comment_at": edit_at or last.get("lastEditedAt") or last.get("createdAt"),
+                "url": root[0].get("url") if root else None,
+                "path": n.get("path"),
+                "line": n.get("line"),
+            })
+        if not data["pageInfo"]["hasNextPage"]:
+            break
+        cursor = data["pageInfo"]["endCursor"]
+    return out
+
+
+def _empty_state(pr, repo, url, now):
+    owner, name = _split_repo(repo)
+    created_at = _iso(now)
+    return {
+        "pr": {"owner": owner, "repo": name, "number": pr, "url": url},
+        "head_sha": None, "tick": 0, "state_created_at": created_at,
+        "started_at": created_at, "invocation_id": None, "invocation_budget_seconds": None,
+        "last_activity_at": created_at, "dead_time_seconds": 0.0,
+        "invocation_backstop_seconds": DEFAULT_INVOCATION_BACKSTOP_SECONDS,
+        "checks": {}, "threads": {}, "ci_dispatched": {},
+        "human_decisions": [], "answered_human_decisions": [],
+        "review_decision": None, "mergeable": None, "merge_state_status": None,
+        "blocked_external_head_sha": None,
+        "blocked_external_first_seen_at": None,
+        "feedback_candidate_changed_at": None, "feedback_candidate_ids": [],
+        "blocked_external_review_last_activity_at": None,
+        "pr_chain": _default_pr_chain(),
+        "base": None,
+        "branch_currency_state": _empty_branch_currency_state(),
+        "last_change_at": None, "last_action": None, "stop_reason": None,
+        "watch_generation": None, "watch_pid": None, "watch_process_identity": None,
+        "trajectory": _empty_trajectory(),
+    }
+
+
+def _empty_branch_currency_state():
+    return {"current_key": None, "items": {}, "semantic_parks": {}, "head_sha": None}
+
+
+def _load_branch_currency_state(state):
+    """Conservatively migrate durable state written before branch currency existed."""
+    currency = state.get("branch_currency_state")
+    if not isinstance(currency, dict):
+        currency = {}
+    defaults = _empty_branch_currency_state()
+    for key, value in defaults.items():
+        currency.setdefault(key, value)
+    if not isinstance(currency.get("items"), dict):
+        currency["items"] = {}
+    for item in currency["items"].values():
+        if isinstance(item, dict) and item.get("requires_decision"):
+            item.setdefault("mutation_requires_answer", True)
+    if not isinstance(currency.get("semantic_parks"), dict):
+        currency["semantic_parks"] = {}
+    state["branch_currency_state"] = currency
+    return currency
+
+
+def _reactivate_currency_item(currency, item):
+    """Re-actionize one source without erasing attempt or mutation history."""
+    item["disposition"] = DISPOSITION_OPEN
+    item.pop("claimed_invocation_id", None)
+    item.pop("confirmed_invocation_id", None)
+    item.pop("reconciled_invocation_id", None)
+    item.pop("inspected_semantic_conflict_fingerprint", None)
+    item.pop("inspection_result", None)
+    item.pop("requires_decision", None)
+    item.pop("pending_decision", None)
+    item.pop("answered_decision", None)
+    item["parked_semantic_fingerprints"] = sorted(currency.get("semantic_parks") or {})
+
+
+def _mergeability_certain(mergeable, merge_state_status, base):
+    """GitHub mergeability is usable only when its cached base is proven current."""
+    if _base_ref_blocker(base) is not None:
+        return False
+    if mergeable not in ("MERGEABLE", "CONFLICTING"):
+        return False
+    if not merge_state_status or merge_state_status == "UNKNOWN":
+        return False
+    if merge_state_status == "DIRTY":
+        return mergeable == "CONFLICTING"
+    if merge_state_status == "BEHIND":
+        return mergeable == "MERGEABLE"
+    return True
+
+
+def _normal_base_route(cur):
+    """Return the only route U1 may classify: an unmanaged PR rooted on its normal base.
+
+    Ordinary dependents are intentionally harmless. An open or unknown parent means this target is
+    itself in a manual dependency chain and therefore outside this unit's authority.
+    """
+    chain = cur.get("pr_chain") or _default_pr_chain()
+    base = cur.get("base") or {}
+    if chain.get("manager_status") != MANAGER_ABSENT:
+        return None
+    if chain.get("relationship_status") == RELATIONSHIP_PROBE_ERROR:
+        return None
+    if not chain.get("default_branch") or base.get("ref") != chain.get("default_branch"):
+        return None
+    parents = chain.get("parent_prs") or []
+    if any(not isinstance(parent, dict) or parent.get("state") not in ("CLOSED", "MERGED")
+           for parent in parents):
+        return None
+    return "normal-base"
+
+
+def _branch_currency_observation(cur, head):
+    status = cur.get("merge_state_status")
+    certain = _mergeability_certain(cur.get("mergeable"), status, cur.get("base"))
+    if not certain or status not in ("BEHIND", "DIRTY"):
+        return None
+    route = _normal_base_route(cur)
+    base = cur.get("base") or {}
+    if (route is None or not head
+            or not all(base.get(key) for key in ("host", "repository", "ref", "oid"))):
+        return None
+    identity = {
+        "host": base["host"],
+        "base_repository": base["repository"],
+        "base_ref": base["ref"],
+        "base_oid": base["oid"],
+        "head_sha": head,
+        "status": status,
+        "route": route,
+    }
+    encoded = json.dumps(identity, sort_keys=True, separators=(",", ":")).encode("utf-8")
+    return {"key": f"currency:{hashlib.sha256(encoded).hexdigest()}", **identity}
+
+
+def _claimed_currency_items(currency):
+    """Return unresolved mutation claims with the current item first.
+
+    Base or expected head movement may be the result of the claimed mutation. It is evidence to
+    reconcile, not permission to discard the claim and start another attempt.
+    """
+    items = currency.get("items") or {}
+    current_key = currency.get("current_key")
+    claimed = []
+    current = items.get(current_key)
+    if isinstance(current, dict) and current.get("disposition") == CURRENCY_CLAIMED:
+        claimed.append((current_key, current))
+    claimed.extend(
+        (key, item) for key, item in items.items()
+        if key != current_key and isinstance(item, dict)
+        and item.get("disposition") == CURRENCY_CLAIMED
+    )
+    return claimed
+
+
+def _prepare_claimed_currency_item(state, item, cur=None, head=None):
+    invocation_id = state.get("invocation_id")
+    already_handled_here = (
+        item.get("claimed_invocation_id") == invocation_id
+        or item.get("reconciled_invocation_id") == invocation_id
+    )
+    base = (cur or {}).get("base") or {}
+    async_evidence_moved = (
+        item.get("recovery_state") in (
+            CURRENCY_OUTCOME_MUTATION_OBSERVED, CURRENCY_OUTCOME_AMBIGUOUS)
+        and ((head and head != item.get("head_sha"))
+             or (base.get("oid") and base.get("oid") != item.get("base_oid")))
+    )
+    item["attention"] = (CURRENCY_ATTENTION_RECONCILE
+                         if async_evidence_moved or not already_handled_here else None)
+    item["reconciliation_only"] = True
+    return item
+
+
+def _apply_stale_merge_computation(state, cur, head, now):
+    """Bounded degrade for a `race` whose only mismatch is GitHub's stale test merge. Tracks the
+    first time the same (head, live base) pair was seen in that state; after
+    STALE_MERGE_COMPUTATION_SECONDS the identity becomes `stale-computation` and the base carries
+    `merge_computation_stale: true` so the report can disclose it. Any head/base movement resets."""
+    base = cur.get("base") if isinstance(cur.get("base"), dict) else None
+    if not base:
+        state["stale_merge_computation"] = None
+        return
+    live = base.get("oid")
+    candidate = (base.get("identity") == BASE_REF_RACE
+                 and base.get("stale_computation_candidate")
+                 and _valid_oid(live) and _valid_oid(head))
+    if not candidate:
+        state["stale_merge_computation"] = None
+        return
+    key = f"{str(head).lower()}:{str(live).lower()}"
+    tracked = state.get("stale_merge_computation")
+    if not isinstance(tracked, dict) or tracked.get("key") != key:
+        tracked = {"key": key, "first_seen_at": _iso(now)}
+        state["stale_merge_computation"] = tracked
+    if _elapsed(tracked.get("first_seen_at"), now) >= STALE_MERGE_COMPUTATION_SECONDS:
+        base["identity"] = BASE_REF_STALE_COMPUTATION
+        base["merge_computation_stale"] = True
+
+
+def _detect_unrequested_base_merge(state, cur, head, head_changed, now):
+    """Head-scoped fact: the current head is a two-parent merge of the base tip that no claimed
+    branch_currency item produced. Ordinary base movement with CLEAN never yields an item, so a
+    base-into-head merge on such a PR is a defect the loop must report, not maintenance. Persisted
+    on the head that introduced it and cleared by the next head change; a legitimate DIRTY repair
+    (mutation_consumed on a claimed item whose head is the merge's other parent) is excluded. A head
+    whose parents could not be observed stays pending and is re-evaluated every snapshot. The head
+    seen on the first-ever snapshot of a state dir is the watch's baseline, not a candidate: the
+    loop has no evidence about who produced it (a user merging main by hand before invoking is
+    ordinary), and state persists across re-invocations, so only heads that appear during the
+    watch are classified."""
+    # Must run before diff() overwrites state["base"] with the current observation.
+    prior_base = state.get("base") if isinstance(state.get("base"), dict) else {}
+    persisted = state.get("unrequested_base_merge")
+    pending = state.get("unrequested_base_merge_pending")
+    should_evaluate = head_changed or pending == head
+    if not should_evaluate:
+        return persisted if isinstance(persisted, dict) and persisted.get("head") == head else None
+
+    state["unrequested_base_merge"] = None   # cleared unless proven below
+    if "head_parents" not in cur:
+        # Pre-detector fixture or persisted snapshot: no parent evidence exists to wait for.
+        state["unrequested_base_merge_pending"] = None
+        return None
+    parents = cur.get("head_parents")
+    if parents is None:
+        state["unrequested_base_merge_pending"] = head
+        return None
+    state["unrequested_base_merge_pending"] = None
+    if not isinstance(parents, list) or len(parents) != 2:
+        return None
+    base = cur.get("base") if isinstance(cur.get("base"), dict) else {}
+    base_oids = {
+        str(o).lower() for o in (
+            base.get("oid"), base.get("graphql_oid"), base.get("historical_oid"),
+            prior_base.get("oid"), prior_base.get("graphql_oid"))
+        if _valid_oid(o)
+    }
+    base_parent = next((p for p in parents if p in base_oids), None)
+    if base_parent is None:
+        return None
+    # Only a consumed mutation that produced THIS merge exempts it: the claimed item must name both
+    # parents — its head is the merge's other parent and its base is the base parent. A confirmed
+    # item for an earlier head, or for an older base, is not evidence.
+    other_parents = {p for p in parents if p != base_parent}
+    for item in (_load_branch_currency_state(state).get("items") or {}).values():
+        if (isinstance(item, dict) and item.get("mutation_consumed")
+                and str(item.get("head_sha") or "").lower() in other_parents
+                and str(item.get("base_oid") or "").lower() == base_parent):
+            return None
+    fact = {"head": head, "base_parent": base_parent, "observed_at": _iso(now)}
+    state["unrequested_base_merge"] = fact
+    return fact
+
+
+def _prepare_open_currency_item(state, currency, key, item, now):
+    parks = currency.get("semantic_parks") or {}
+    answer_required = _currency_mutation_requires_answer(state, key, item)
+    inspection_required = (item.get("status") == "DIRTY"
+                           and bool(parks)
+                           and item.get("inspection_result") != "changed"
+                           and not _answered_human_source_matches(
+                               state, "currency", key, _currency_source_observation(item)))
+    item["inspection_required"] = inspection_required
+    retry_wait_seconds = 0
+    retry_not_before = item.get("retry_not_before")
+    if retry_not_before:
+        try:
+            retry_wait_seconds = max(
+                0, int((_parse_iso8601(retry_not_before) - now).total_seconds()))
+        except (ValueError, TypeError):
+            retry_wait_seconds = 0
+    item["retry_wait_seconds"] = retry_wait_seconds
+    if answer_required:
+        item["attention"] = CURRENCY_ATTENTION_DECIDE
+    elif inspection_required:
+        item["attention"] = CURRENCY_ATTENTION_INSPECT
+    elif retry_wait_seconds > 0:
+        item["attention"] = None
+    else:
+        item["attention"] = CURRENCY_ATTENTION_CLAIM
+    item["reconciliation_only"] = False
+
+
+def _apply_branch_currency(state, cur, head, head_changed, now):
+    currency = _load_branch_currency_state(state)
+    carried_claims = _claimed_currency_items(currency)
+    carried_semantic_parks = dict(currency.get("semantic_parks") or {})
+    if head_changed or (currency.get("head_sha") not in (None, head)):
+        currency = _empty_branch_currency_state()
+        currency["items"] = dict(carried_claims)
+        currency["semantic_parks"] = carried_semantic_parks
+        state["branch_currency_state"] = currency
+    currency["head_sha"] = head
+
+    # An unresolved claim owns the branch-currency lane until it is explicitly reconciled. A base
+    # move or expected head move may be the mutation's result, so a new observation must not replace
+    # the old exact key or make the PR look clear in the meantime.
+    claimed_items = _claimed_currency_items(currency)
+    if claimed_items:
+        key, item = claimed_items[0]
+        currency["current_key"] = key
+        return _prepare_claimed_currency_item(state, item, cur, head)
+
+    observation = _branch_currency_observation(cur, head)
+    if observation is None:
+        currency["current_key"] = None
+        return None
+
+    key = observation["key"]
+    items = currency["items"]
+    item = items.get(key)
+    if not isinstance(item, dict):
+        item = {**observation, "disposition": DISPOSITION_OPEN}
+    else:
+        # Refresh non-identity facts without changing an invocation-fenced disposition.
+        item.update(observation)
+    item["host_branch_update_capability"] = cur.get(
+        "host_branch_update_capability", "unknown")
+    parks = currency.get("semantic_parks") or {}
+    item["parked_semantic_fingerprints"] = sorted(parks)
+    item.setdefault("retry_count", 0)
+    item.setdefault("mutation_consumed", False)
+    item.setdefault("mutation_requires_answer", False)
+    disposition = item.get("disposition", DISPOSITION_OPEN)
+    if disposition == DISPOSITION_OPEN:
+        _prepare_open_currency_item(state, currency, key, item, now)
+    elif disposition == CURRENCY_CLAIMED:
+        _prepare_claimed_currency_item(state, item, cur, head)
+    else:
+        item["attention"] = None
+        item["reconciliation_only"] = False
+    items[key] = item
+    currency["current_key"] = key
+
+    # Old observations are useful only when they carry an unresolved mutation claim.
+    retained = {item_key: value for item_key, value in items.items()
+                if item_key == key
+                or value.get("disposition") == CURRENCY_CLAIMED}
+    currency["items"] = retained
+    return item
+
+
+def _empty_trajectory():
+    """Deterministic cross-tick facts babysit hands the leaves (facts, not judgment):
+    babysit ships the trajectory, the leaf decides whether it means non-convergence."""
+    return {
+        "check_history": {},           # check key -> {state, last_head, recur, seen_tick}
+        "seen_threads": {},            # unresolved thread id -> first-seen tick
+        "unresolved_series": [],       # unresolved-thread count per tick (last 6)
+        "stream_series": [],           # single-stream activity per tick (last 8)
+        "problem_keys": [],            # last tick's failing checks + non-parked threads (progress detection)
+        "min_open_problems": None,     # lowest total open-problem count seen
+        "heads_since_progress": 0,     # head changes since progress (a new low OR something cleared)
+        "last_head": None,             # head as of the last AGENT tick — hsp counts moves between ticks,
+                                       # NOT poll-observed head moves (state["head_sha"] advances on polls)
+        "invariant_heads": {},         # resolver-supplied invariant_key -> unique heads it was marked on
+    }
+
+
+def _load_trajectory(state):
+    """Load the trajectory, tolerating a partial or non-dict value from an older on-disk
+    state.json (persisted in /tmp across script versions) — backfill missing keys so a new
+    field never KeyErrors an old state, and a null/garbage value never crashes."""
+    tj = state.get("trajectory")
+    if not isinstance(tj, dict):
+        tj = {}
+    for key, value in _empty_trajectory().items():
+        tj.setdefault(key, value)
+    state["trajectory"] = tj
+    return tj
+
+
+_INVARIANT_KEY_RE = re.compile(r"^[A-Za-z0-9._:-]{1,120}$")
+
+
+def _record_invariant_round(state, key, head):
+    """Count a resolver-supplied invariant against unique heads. Never infer keys."""
+    if not key:
+        return
+    if not _INVARIANT_KEY_RE.match(key):
+        raise SystemExit("--invariant-key must be 1-120 chars of A-Za-z0-9._:-")
+    if not head:
+        return
+    tj = _load_trajectory(state)
+    heads = tj.setdefault("invariant_heads", {})
+    seen = heads.setdefault(key, [])
+    if not isinstance(seen, list):
+        seen = []
+        heads[key] = seen
+    if head not in seen:
+        seen.append(head)
+
+
+def _invariant_rounds_view(tj):
+    """Public trajectory view: resolver keys counted per unique head."""
+    items = []
+    for key, heads in sorted((tj.get("invariant_heads") or {}).items()):
+        if isinstance(heads, list):
+            items.append({"key": key, "rounds": len(heads)})
+    return items
+
+
+def _push_bounded(lst, item, cap):
+    """Append to a sliding window that keeps only the last `cap` items."""
+    lst.append(item)
+    del lst[:-cap]
+
+
+def _stream_alternations(series):
+    """Count flips between ci-active and review-active ticks — the cross-stream churn signal."""
+    flips = 0
+    prev = None
+    for s in series:
+        if prev is not None and s != prev:
+            flips += 1
+        prev = s
+    return flips
+
+
+def _trend(series):
+    if len(series) < 3:
+        return "flat"
+    if series[-1] > series[0]:
+        return "rising"
+    if series[-1] < series[0]:
+        return "falling"
+    return "flat"
+
+
+def _record_check_history(state, head, new_checks):
+    """Record CI fail->clear->fail recurrence transitions. Runs on EVERY snapshot — agent ticks AND
+    watch polls — so a CLEAR (or FAIL) observed only between agent ticks is not lost, which would
+    otherwise make the ping-pong recurrence trigger under-fire under the self-sustaining watch.
+    Idempotent per transition: once a check is FAILING, re-observing FAIL does not re-increment."""
+    tj = _load_trajectory(state)
+    tick = state.get("tick", 0)
+    hist = tj["check_history"]
+    for key, c in new_checks.items():
+        h = hist.setdefault(key, {"state": CHECK_UNKNOWN, "last_head": None, "recur": 0, "seen_tick": tick})
+        h["seen_tick"] = tick
+        if c["conclusion"] in FAILING:
+            if h["state"] == CHECK_CLEAR and h["last_head"] != head:  # fail after a clear on a new head
+                h["recur"] += 1
+            h["state"] = CHECK_FAILING
+            h["last_head"] = head
+        elif c["status"] == "COMPLETED":  # observed non-failing terminal — a genuine clear
+            h["state"] = CHECK_CLEAR
+            h["last_head"] = head
+        # IN_PROGRESS/QUEUED: leave prior state untouched (not yet a clear)
+    # Evict entries unseen for TTL agent-ticks (polls don't advance the tick) — bounds growth without
+    # erasing a check that was briefly absent (a one-tick gap must not lose real recurrence history).
+    tj["check_history"] = {k: v for k, v in hist.items() if tick - v.get("seen_tick", tick) <= CHECK_HISTORY_TTL}
+
+
+def _update_trajectory(state, head, new_checks, new_threads, new_feedback, actionable,
+                       decision_coverage=None):
+    """Maintain and emit the deterministic trajectory. Coarse by design: check-name-level
+    recurrence, backlog trend, cross-stream alternation, no-progress heads. Fine, invariant-
+    level judgment (log signatures, nit root-clustering) is the leaf's job, not this script's.
+    `actionable` is the `{ci, threads, comments}` set diff() also returns. Non-thread feedback
+    (top-level comments + review bodies) counts as review-stream activity and as an open problem
+    for the stall signal, but the thread-named backlog fields stay scoped to inline threads."""
+    tj = _load_trajectory(state)
+
+    # --- CI recurrence (fail->clear->fail on a *different* head): recorded on EVERY observation
+    # (agent ticks AND watch polls, via _record_check_history in diff) so a clear seen only between
+    # agent ticks is not lost. Here we just READ the accumulated history for the trigger. recur_max
+    # reflects only checks present this tick, so a stale key can't keep it elevated. ---
+    hist = tj["check_history"]
+    recur_max = max((hist[k]["recur"] for k in new_checks if k in hist), default=0)
+    recurring = [{"key": k, "recur": hist[k]["recur"]} for k in new_checks if k in hist and hist[k]["recur"] > 0]
+
+    # --- Review-thread backlog: trend of unresolved-thread count + genuinely new threads this
+    # tick. Scoped to inline threads (non-thread feedback is captured in the total-problem stall
+    # signal below), so these thread-named fields stay accurate. ---
+    seen = tj.get("seen_threads", {})
+    new_arrivals = [tid for tid in new_threads if tid not in seen]
+    tj["seen_threads"] = {tid: seen.get(tid, state.get("tick", 0)) for tid in new_threads}
+    _push_bounded(tj["unresolved_series"], len(new_threads), 6)
+
+    # --- Cross-stream churn: alternation between ci-only and review-only active ticks.
+    # Review is active when either threads OR non-thread feedback is actionable. ---
+    review_active = bool(actionable["threads"] or actionable.get("comments"))
+    if actionable["ci"] and not review_active:
+        active = STREAM_CI
+    elif review_active and not actionable["ci"]:
+        active = STREAM_REVIEW
+    else:
+        active = None  # both or neither — not a single-stream tick, don't record
+    if active:
+        _push_bounded(tj["stream_series"], active, 8)
+
+    # --- No-progress heads: measured from TOTAL open problems (failing checks + non-parked
+    # unresolved threads + non-parked non-thread feedback), NOT the post-claim `actionable` set —
+    # marking items dispatched shrinks
+    # actionable and would fake progress. Reset the counter when the head moves and either the
+    # total set a new low OR a previously-failing item cleared: progressive migration (A cleared
+    # while B appears) is progress, not a stall, so it must not accrue heads_since_progress. ---
+    # Only genuinely-OPEN items are unresolved work: a `dispatched` item is handled (a top-level
+    # comment never drops out of the fetch, so counting it would keep heads_since_progress climbing
+    # forever and falsely trip non-convergence on unrelated later work), and `needs-human` is parked.
+    decision_coverage = decision_coverage or set()
+    problem_keys = {f"c:{k}" for k, c in new_checks.items()
+                    if c["conclusion"] in FAILING and ("check", k) not in decision_coverage}
+    problem_keys |= {f"t:{tid}" for tid, t in new_threads.items()
+                     if t.get("disposition") == DISPOSITION_OPEN
+                     and ("thread", tid) not in decision_coverage}
+    problem_keys |= {f"m:{fid}" for fid, f in new_feedback.items()
+                     if f.get("disposition") == DISPOSITION_OPEN
+                     and (f.get("kind", "comment"), fid) not in decision_coverage}
+    cleared_something = bool(set(tj.get("problem_keys", [])) - problem_keys)
+    open_problems = len(problem_keys)
+    minp = tj.get("min_open_problems")
+    new_low = minp is None or open_problems < minp
+    if new_low:
+        tj["min_open_problems"] = open_problems
+    # heads_since_progress counts head moves BETWEEN AGENT TICKS (tj["last_head"]), not poll-observed
+    # moves — a watch poll advances state["head_sha"], so a plain head_changed would read False at the
+    # agent's tick and starve this stall signal under the default self-sustaining watch.
+    traj_head_moved = tj.get("last_head") is not None and head != tj.get("last_head")
+    if new_low or cleared_something:
+        tj["heads_since_progress"] = 0
+    elif traj_head_moved:
+        tj["heads_since_progress"] = tj.get("heads_since_progress", 0) + 1
+    tj["problem_keys"] = sorted(problem_keys)
+    tj["last_head"] = head
+
+    return {
+        "recurring_checks": recurring,
+        "check_recur_max": recur_max,
+        "unresolved_threads": len(new_threads),
+        "unresolved_series": list(tj["unresolved_series"]),
+        "unresolved_trend": _trend(tj["unresolved_series"]),
+        "new_threads_this_tick": len(new_arrivals),
+        "stream_alternations": _stream_alternations(tj["stream_series"]),
+        "heads_since_progress": tj["heads_since_progress"],
+        "invariant_rounds": _invariant_rounds_view(tj),
+    }
+
+
+def _apply_dispositions(items, id_key, prior, identity_fn=None,
+                        reactivate_dispositions=(DISPOSITION_DISPATCHED,)):
+    """Claim->act->confirm dedup for a review stream: an item stays actionable until `mark`
+    records a non-open disposition (persisted in prior[id]['disposition']). Returns
+    (persisted_by_id, actionable_list, 0).
+
+    When identity_fn is given, an item whose disposition is in `reactivate_dispositions` is
+    *reactivated* — set back to open and re-actionized — once its last-comment / edit identity moves
+    past the one we acted on. That acted-on identity is captured lazily on the first tick after our
+    own reply, so the reply becomes the baseline and later reviewer activity reopens the item. This
+    stops a dispatched-but-unresolved thread with fresh activity from being silenced.
+
+    The feedback stream excludes DISPATCHED from `reactivate_dispositions` deliberately: status
+    bots rewrite their comment bodies on every push, so edit-keyed reactivation re-actionized
+    handled bot comments forever and merge-ready could never fire (#1309). A brand-new comment is
+    a new id and is always actionable. Human decisions are a separate coverage layer below; source
+    dispositions remain ordinary open/dispatched facts."""
+    persisted, actionable = {}, []
+    for it in items:
+        iid = it.get(id_key)
+        if not iid:
+            continue
+        pri = prior.get(iid, {})
+        disposition = pri.get("disposition", DISPOSITION_OPEN)
+        acted_identity = pri.get("acted_identity")
+        if disposition in reactivate_dispositions and identity_fn is not None:
+            current_identity = identity_fn(it)
+            if acted_identity is None:
+                acted_identity = current_identity   # first post-action observation: adopt as baseline
+            elif current_identity != acted_identity:
+                disposition = DISPOSITION_OPEN       # a later human/reviewer reply past our baseline -> reactivate
+                acted_identity = None
+        if disposition == DISPOSITION_OPEN:
+            actionable.append(it)
+        rec = {**it, "disposition": disposition}
+        if acted_identity is not None:
+            rec["acted_identity"] = acted_identity
+        persisted[iid] = rec
+    return persisted, actionable, 0
+
+
+def _needs_human_residual_error(residual):
+    """Return why a residual is malformed, or None when the full contract holds."""
+    if not isinstance(residual, dict) or residual.get("type") != "needs-human":
+        return "must be one typed needs-human object"
+    sources = residual.get("sources")
+    if not isinstance(sources, list) or not sources:
+        return "sources must be a non-empty list"
+    seen_sources = set()
+    for source in sources:
+        if not isinstance(source, dict):
+            return "every source must be an object"
+        source_id, kind = source.get("id"), source.get("kind")
+        if not isinstance(source_id, str) or not source_id.strip():
+            return "every source id must be a non-empty string"
+        if kind not in NEEDS_HUMAN_SOURCE_KINDS:
+            return "every source kind must be thread, comment, review, check, or currency"
+        identity = (kind, source_id)
+        if identity in seen_sources:
+            return "sources must be unique"
+        seen_sources.add(identity)
+
+    context = residual.get("decision_context")
+    if not isinstance(context, dict):
+        return "decision_context must be an object"
+    for field in ("quoted_feedback", "investigation", "decision_reason"):
+        if not isinstance(context.get(field), str) or not context[field].strip():
+            return f"decision_context.{field} must be a non-empty string"
+    options = context.get("options")
+    if not isinstance(options, list) or not options:
+        return "decision_context.options must be a non-empty list"
+    for option in options:
+        if not isinstance(option, dict):
+            return "every decision_context option must be an object"
+        for field in ("option", "tradeoff"):
+            if not isinstance(option.get(field), str) or not option[field].strip():
+                return f"every decision_context option.{field} must be a non-empty string"
+    if "recommendation" not in context:
+        return "decision_context.recommendation is required"
+    recommendation = context.get("recommendation")
+    if recommendation is not None and (
+            not isinstance(recommendation, str) or not recommendation.strip()):
+        return "decision_context.recommendation must be null or a non-empty string"
+
+    thread_urls = residual.get("thread_urls")
+    if not isinstance(thread_urls, list) or any(
+            not isinstance(url, str) or not url.strip() for url in thread_urls):
+        return "thread_urls must be a list of non-empty strings"
+    thread_sources = sum(source["kind"] == "thread" for source in sources)
+    if len(set(thread_urls)) != len(thread_urls) or len(thread_urls) != thread_sources:
+        return "thread_urls must contain exactly one unique URL for every thread source"
+    return None
+
+
+def _residual_identity(residual):
+    return json.dumps(residual, sort_keys=True, separators=(",", ":"))
+
+
+def _source_identity(source):
+    return source.get("kind"), source.get("id")
+
+
+def _check_observation_identity(check):
+    if not isinstance(check, dict):
+        return None
+    return {
+        "head_sha": check.get("head_sha"),
+        "conclusion": check.get("conclusion"),
+        "details_url": check.get("details_url"),
+        "created_at": check.get("created_at"),
+        "started_at": check.get("started_at"),
+        "completed_at": check.get("completed_at"),
+    }
+
+
+def _currency_source_observation(item):
+    if not isinstance(item, dict):
+        return None
+    observation = {
+        "key": item.get("key"),
+        "status": item.get("status"),
+        "semantic_conflict_fingerprint": item.get("semantic_conflict_fingerprint"),
+        "recovery_state": item.get("recovery_state"),
+        "mutation_requires_answer": bool(item.get("mutation_requires_answer", False)),
+    }
+    if item.get("status") == "BEHIND" and item.get("recovery_state") is None:
+        observation["host_branch_update_capability"] = item.get(
+            "host_branch_update_capability")
+    return observation
+
+
+def _current_source_observation(state, kind, source_id, threads, feedback, checks):
+    if kind == "thread":
+        record = threads.get(source_id)
+        return ([record.get("last_comment_id"), record.get("last_comment_at")]
+                if isinstance(record, dict) else None)
+    if kind in ("comment", "review"):
+        record = feedback.get(source_id)
+        if not isinstance(record, dict) or record.get("kind") != kind:
+            return None
+        return [record.get("edit_id")]
+    if kind == "check":
+        record = checks.get(source_id)
+        if not isinstance(record, dict) or record.get("conclusion") not in FAILING:
+            return None
+        return _check_observation_identity(record)
+    if kind == "currency":
+        currency = _load_branch_currency_state(state)
+        if currency.get("current_key") != source_id:
+            return None
+        return _currency_source_observation(currency.get("items", {}).get(source_id))
+    return None
+
+
+def _decision_id(residual, sources):
+    payload = json.dumps(
+        {"residual": residual, "sources": sources}, sort_keys=True, separators=(",", ":"))
+    return f"decision:{hashlib.sha256(payload.encode('utf-8')).hexdigest()}"
+
+
+def _decision_record(residual, sources, created_at=None):
+    return {
+        "id": _decision_id(residual, sources),
+        "residual": json.loads(json.dumps(residual)),
+        "sources": json.loads(json.dumps(sources)),
+        "created_at": created_at,
+    }
+
+
+def _install_human_decisions(state, decisions):
+    """Install canonical decisions while retaining currency mutation safety independently."""
+    currency = _load_branch_currency_state(state)
+    items = currency.get("items", {})
+    for decision in decisions:
+        if not isinstance(decision, dict):
+            continue
+        sources = decision.get("sources")
+        if not isinstance(sources, list):
+            continue
+        for source in sources:
+            if not isinstance(source, dict) or source.get("kind") != "currency":
+                continue
+            item = items.get(source.get("id"))
+            if isinstance(item, dict):
+                item["mutation_requires_answer"] = True
+            observation = source.get("observation")
+            if isinstance(observation, dict):
+                observation["mutation_requires_answer"] = True
+        if isinstance(decision.get("residual"), dict):
+            decision["id"] = _decision_id(decision["residual"], sources)
+    state["human_decisions"] = decisions
+
+
+def _decision_source_matches(source, kind, source_id, observation):
+    return (isinstance(source, dict) and source.get("kind") == kind
+            and source.get("id") == source_id and source.get("observation") == observation)
+
+
+def _answered_human_source_matches(state, kind, source_id, observation):
+    return any(
+        _decision_source_matches(source, kind, source_id, observation)
+        for decision in state.get("answered_human_decisions") or []
+        if isinstance(decision, dict)
+        for source in decision.get("sources") or []
+    )
+
+
+def _currency_mutation_requires_answer(state, source_id, item):
+    observation = _currency_source_observation(item)
+    return (bool(item.get("mutation_requires_answer"))
+            and not _answered_human_source_matches(
+                state, "currency", source_id, observation))
+
+
+def _source_is_actionable(state, kind, source_id, threads, feedback, checks):
+    if kind == "thread":
+        record = threads.get(source_id)
+        return isinstance(record, dict) and record.get("disposition") == DISPOSITION_OPEN
+    if kind in ("comment", "review"):
+        record = feedback.get(source_id)
+        return (isinstance(record, dict) and record.get("kind") == kind
+                and record.get("disposition") == DISPOSITION_OPEN)
+    if kind == "check":
+        record = checks.get(source_id)
+        head = state.get("head_sha")
+        return (isinstance(record, dict) and record.get("conclusion") in FAILING
+                and source_id not in state.get("ci_dispatched", {}).get(head, []))
+    if kind == "currency":
+        currency = _load_branch_currency_state(state)
+        record = currency.get("items", {}).get(source_id)
+        return (currency.get("current_key") == source_id and isinstance(record, dict)
+                and record.get("disposition") in (DISPOSITION_OPEN, CURRENCY_CLAIMED))
+    return False
+
+
+def _source_can_enter_human_decision(state, kind, source_id, threads, feedback, checks):
+    """Accept exact current evidence even when ordinary dispatch already suppresses it."""
+    if _current_source_observation(state, kind, source_id, threads, feedback, checks) is None:
+        return False
+    if kind != "currency":
+        return True
+    currency = _load_branch_currency_state(state)
+    record = currency.get("items", {}).get(source_id)
+    return (currency.get("current_key") == source_id and isinstance(record, dict)
+            and record.get("disposition") in (DISPOSITION_OPEN, CURRENCY_CLAIMED))
+
+
+def _release_ordinary_suppression_for_decision(state, sources, threads, feedback):
+    """Make canonical decision coverage the sole suppression owner for review and CI."""
+    head = state.get("head_sha")
+    dispatched_checks = state.get("ci_dispatched", {}).get(head)
+    for source in sources:
+        kind, source_id = source.get("kind"), source.get("id")
+        record = (threads.get(source_id) if kind == "thread"
+                  else feedback.get(source_id) if kind in ("comment", "review") else None)
+        if isinstance(record, dict):
+            record["disposition"] = DISPOSITION_OPEN
+            record.pop("acted_identity", None)
+        elif kind == "check" and isinstance(dispatched_checks, list):
+            state["ci_dispatched"][head] = [
+                key for key in state["ci_dispatched"][head] if key != source_id]
+
+
+def _migrate_legacy_check_observation(state, source_id, legacy_observations, checks):
+    legacy = legacy_observations.get(source_id)
+    current = _current_source_observation(state, "check", source_id, {}, {}, checks)
+    if (not isinstance(legacy, dict) or not isinstance(current, dict)
+            or current.get("head_sha") != state.get("head_sha")
+            or any(current.get(field) != value for field, value in legacy.items())):
+        return None
+    return current
+
+
+def _retire_legacy_check_suppression(state, residual):
+    if not isinstance(residual, dict) or not isinstance(residual.get("sources"), list):
+        return
+    head = state.get("head_sha")
+    dispatched = state.get("ci_dispatched", {}).get(head)
+    if not isinstance(dispatched, list):
+        return
+    legacy_check_ids = {
+        source.get("id") for source in residual["sources"]
+        if isinstance(source, dict) and source.get("kind") == "check"
+    }
+    state["ci_dispatched"][head] = [
+        key for key in dispatched if key not in legacy_check_ids]
+
+
+def _legacy_decision_records(state, threads, feedback, checks, now):
+    """Replace legacy suppression with exact current decisions; incomplete evidence fails open."""
+    candidates = list(state.get("needs_human_residuals") or [])
+    candidates.extend(
+        record.get("needs_human_residual")
+        for record in list(threads.values()) + list(feedback.values())
+        if isinstance(record.get("needs_human_residual"), dict)
+    )
+    legacy_check_observations = state.get("needs_human_check_observations") or {}
+    records, seen = [], set()
+    for residual in candidates:
+        _retire_legacy_check_suppression(state, residual)
+        if _needs_human_residual_error(residual):
+            continue
+        identity = _residual_identity(residual)
+        if identity in seen:
+            continue
+        seen.add(identity)
+        sources = []
+        for source in residual["sources"]:
+            kind, source_id = _source_identity(source)
+            observation = None
+            record = (threads.get(source_id) if kind == "thread"
+                      else feedback.get(source_id) if kind in ("comment", "review") else None)
+            if isinstance(record, dict) and record.get("acted_identity") is not None:
+                observation = record.get("acted_identity")
+            elif kind == "check":
+                observation = _migrate_legacy_check_observation(
+                    state, source_id, legacy_check_observations, checks)
+            else:
+                observation = _current_source_observation(
+                    state, kind, source_id, threads, feedback, checks)
+            if observation is None:
+                sources = []
+                break
+            sources.append({"kind": kind, "id": source_id, "observation": observation})
+        if sources:
+            records.append(_decision_record(residual, sources, _iso(now)))
+    return records
+
+
+def _legacy_answered_decision_records(state, threads, feedback, checks):
+    """Preserve only the exact source evidence carried by a legacy answer owner."""
+    records, seen = [], set()
+    currency = _load_branch_currency_state(state)
+    for source_id, item in currency.get("items", {}).items():
+        answered = item.get("answered_decision")
+        if not isinstance(answered, dict):
+            continue
+        residual, answer = answered.get("residual"), answered.get("answer")
+        _retire_legacy_check_suppression(state, residual)
+        if _needs_human_residual_error(residual) or not isinstance(answer, str) or not answer.strip():
+            continue
+        owns_residual = any(
+            _source_identity(source) == ("currency", source_id)
+            for source in residual["sources"])
+        observation = _current_source_observation(
+            state, "currency", source_id, threads, feedback, checks)
+        if not owns_residual or observation is None:
+            continue
+        sources = [{"kind": "currency", "id": source_id, "observation": observation}]
+        record = {
+            **_decision_record(residual, sources, answered.get("recorded_at")),
+            "answer": answer.strip(),
+            "answered_at": answered.get("recorded_at"),
+        }
+        if record["id"] not in seen:
+            seen.add(record["id"])
+            records.append(record)
+    return records
+
+
+def _normalize_legacy_source_state(state, threads, feedback):
+    for records in (threads, feedback):
+        for record in records.values():
+            if record.get("disposition") == DISPOSITION_NEEDS_HUMAN:
+                record["disposition"] = DISPOSITION_OPEN
+            record.pop("needs_human_residual", None)
+            if record.get("disposition") == DISPOSITION_OPEN:
+                record.pop("acted_identity", None)
+    currency = _load_branch_currency_state(state)
+    for item in currency.get("items", {}).values():
+        if item.get("disposition") == DISPOSITION_NEEDS_HUMAN:
+            _reactivate_currency_item(currency, item)
+        item.pop("requires_decision", None)
+        item.pop("pending_decision", None)
+        item.pop("answered_decision", None)
+    state.pop("needs_human_residuals", None)
+    state.pop("needs_human_check_observations", None)
+
+
+def _human_decision_identity(decision):
+    if not isinstance(decision, dict):
+        return None
+    residual, sources = decision.get("residual"), decision.get("sources")
+    if not isinstance(residual, dict) or not isinstance(sources, list):
+        return None
+    return _decision_id(residual, sources)
+
+
+def _replace_human_decisions(
+        state, kept, previous=None, threads=None, feedback=None, checks=None):
+    """Replace canonical decisions and reactivate exact surviving source evidence."""
+    previous = previous if isinstance(previous, list) else state.get("human_decisions")
+    previous = previous if isinstance(previous, list) else []
+    kept_identities = {
+        identity for decision in kept
+        if (identity := _human_decision_identity(decision)) is not None
+    }
+    removed = [
+        decision for decision in previous
+        if (_human_decision_identity(decision) not in kept_identities)
+    ]
+    _install_human_decisions(state, kept)
+
+    threads = threads if isinstance(threads, dict) else state.get("threads", {})
+    feedback = feedback if isinstance(feedback, dict) else state.get("feedback", {})
+    checks = checks if isinstance(checks, dict) else state.get("checks", {})
+    for decision in removed:
+        if not isinstance(decision, dict):
+            continue
+        for source in decision.get("sources") or []:
+            if not isinstance(source, dict):
+                continue
+            kind, source_id = source.get("kind"), source.get("id")
+            current = _current_source_observation(
+                state, kind, source_id, threads, feedback, checks)
+            if current != source.get("observation") or kind != "currency":
+                continue
+            # Review and CI retain ordinary open state; currency has an explicit claim to clear.
+            currency = _load_branch_currency_state(state)
+            item = currency.get("items", {}).get(source_id)
+            if isinstance(item, dict):
+                _reactivate_currency_item(currency, item)
+
+
+def _reconcile_human_decisions(state, threads, feedback, checks, now):
+    """Let canonical decisions alone suppress exact evidence; activity is never an answer."""
+    current = state.get("human_decisions")
+    if not isinstance(current, list):
+        current = _legacy_decision_records(state, threads, feedback, checks, now)
+    elif not current and state.get("needs_human_residuals"):
+        current = _legacy_decision_records(state, threads, feedback, checks, now)
+    _install_human_decisions(state, current)
+    answered = state.get("answered_human_decisions")
+    if not isinstance(answered, list):
+        answered = _legacy_answered_decision_records(
+            state, threads, feedback, checks)
+    elif not answered:
+        answered = _legacy_answered_decision_records(
+            state, threads, feedback, checks)
+    _normalize_legacy_source_state(state, threads, feedback)
+
+    kept, seen = [], set()
+    for decision in current:
+        if not isinstance(decision, dict) or _needs_human_residual_error(decision.get("residual")):
+            continue
+        sources = decision.get("sources")
+        if not isinstance(sources, list) or len(sources) != len(decision["residual"]["sources"]):
+            continue
+        expected = {(source.get("kind"), source.get("id")) for source in sources}
+        if expected != {_source_identity(source) for source in decision["residual"]["sources"]}:
+            continue
+        if not all(
+                source.get("observation") is not None
+                and _current_source_observation(
+                    state, source.get("kind"), source.get("id"), threads, feedback, checks)
+                == source.get("observation")
+                for source in sources):
+            continue
+        normalized = _decision_record(decision["residual"], sources, decision.get("created_at"))
+        if normalized["id"] in seen:
+            continue
+        seen.add(normalized["id"])
+        kept.append(normalized)
+
+    _replace_human_decisions(
+        state, kept, current, threads=threads, feedback=feedback, checks=checks)
+    kept_answers = []
+    for decision in answered:
+        if not isinstance(decision, dict) or not isinstance(decision.get("answer"), str):
+            continue
+        sources = decision.get("sources") or []
+        matching_actionable = any(
+            _current_source_observation(
+                state, source.get("kind"), source.get("id"), threads, feedback, checks)
+            == source.get("observation")
+            and _source_is_actionable(
+                state, source.get("kind"), source.get("id"), threads, feedback, checks)
+            for source in sources if isinstance(source, dict))
+        if matching_actionable:
+            kept_answers.append(decision)
+
+    state["answered_human_decisions"] = kept_answers
+    covered = {
+        (source["kind"], source["id"])
+        for decision in kept for source in decision["sources"]
+    }
+    public = []
+    for decision in kept:
+        public.append(json.loads(json.dumps(decision["residual"])))
+    return public, covered
+
+
+def diff(state, cur, now=None, advance_trajectory=True):
+    """Pure: given prior state + current snapshot, compute the actionable set
+    and the persisted observed state. `now` is injectable for tests."""
+    now = now or _now()
+    # A transient null/empty head (a gh hiccup) falls back to the last known head,
+    # so a momentary null does not look like a new head and wipe ci_dispatched.
+    head = cur["head_sha"] or state.get("head_sha")
+    head_changed = state.get("head_sha") is not None and head != state["head_sha"]
+    _apply_stale_merge_computation(state, cur, head, now)
+
+    prior_threads = state.get("threads", {})
+    prior_feedback = state.get("feedback", {})
+    prior_feedback_activity = {
+        fid: item.get("edit_id") for fid, item in prior_feedback.items()
+    }
+    prior_review_decision = state.get("review_decision")
+    prior_change_sig = _change_sig(state)
+    if head_changed:
+        # SHA-scoped state is meaningless on a new head.
+        state["ci_dispatched"] = {}
+
+    # --- CI: a failing check on the current head is actionable until the agent
+    # marks it dispatched (recorded in ci_dispatched[head]) or the head moves.
+    # `checks_terminal` = every check has finished (none IN_PROGRESS/QUEUED).
+    # Duplicate check keys (same workflow/name) are disambiguated with a #n suffix
+    # so one never shadows another and silently drops a failing check. ---
+    new_checks = {}
+    failing_check_items = {}
+    has_failing = False
+    checks_terminal = True
+    seen_keys = {}
+    for c in cur["checks"]:
+        key = c["key"]
+        if key in seen_keys:
+            seen_keys[key] += 1
+            key = f"{key}#{seen_keys[key]}"
+        else:
+            seen_keys[key] = 0
+        new_checks[key] = {
+            "name": c["name"], "status": c["status"],
+            "conclusion": c["conclusion"], "head_sha": head,
+            "details_url": c.get("details_url"),
+            "created_at": c.get("created_at"),
+            "started_at": c.get("started_at"),
+            "completed_at": c.get("completed_at"),
+        }
+        if c["status"] != "COMPLETED":
+            checks_terminal = False
+        if c["conclusion"] in FAILING:
+            has_failing = True
+            failing_check_items[key] = {
+                "key": key, "name": c["name"], "conclusion": c["conclusion"],
+                "details_url": c["details_url"],
+            }
+
+    # Review streams keep only ordinary open/dispatched state. Human decisions are a separate
+    # exact-observation coverage layer reconciled below, so a remote edit invalidates a question
+    # but is never mistaken for the user's answer.
+    new_threads, _, _ = _apply_dispositions(
+        cur["threads"], "thread_id", prior_threads,
+        identity_fn=lambda t: [t.get("last_comment_id"), t.get("last_comment_at")])
+    new_feedback, _, _ = _apply_dispositions(
+        cur.get("feedback") or [], "id", prior_feedback,
+        identity_fn=lambda c: [c.get("edit_id")], reactivate_dispositions=())
+    # Reconcile currency before exact decision observations are compared.
+    branch_currency = _apply_branch_currency(state, cur, head, head_changed, now)
+    needs_human_residuals, decision_coverage = _reconcile_human_decisions(
+        state, new_threads, new_feedback, new_checks, now)
+    dispatched = set(state.get("ci_dispatched", {}).get(head, []))
+    # Every attention stream is derived from ordinary state minus current decision coverage.
+    actionable_threads = [
+        record for source_id, record in new_threads.items()
+        if record.get("disposition") == DISPOSITION_OPEN
+        and ("thread", source_id) not in decision_coverage]
+    actionable_feedback = [
+        record for source_id, record in new_feedback.items()
+        if record.get("disposition") == DISPOSITION_OPEN
+        and (record.get("kind", "comment"), source_id) not in decision_coverage]
+    actionable_ci = [
+        item for key, item in failing_check_items.items()
+        if key not in dispatched and ("check", key) not in decision_coverage]
+    current_thread_activity = {
+        item.get("thread_id"): _thread_identity(item)
+        for item in cur["threads"] if item.get("thread_id")
+    }
+    prior_thread_activity = {
+        tid: _prior_thread_activity_identity(item) for tid, item in prior_threads.items()
+        if not (item.get("disposition") == DISPOSITION_DISPATCHED
+                and tid not in current_thread_activity)
+    }
+    current_feedback_activity = {
+        item.get("id"): item.get("edit_id")
+        for item in (cur.get("feedback") or []) if item.get("id")
+    }
+    external_review_moved = (
+        head_changed
+        or current_thread_activity != prior_thread_activity
+        or current_feedback_activity != prior_feedback_activity
+        or cur.get("review_decision") != prior_review_decision
+    )
+    open_needs_human = len(needs_human_residuals)
+    # Compatibility view for consumers that display source identities. The canonical set above,
+    # not this flattened list, owns persistence and stop behavior.
+    needs_human_ids = sorted({
+        source["id"] for residual in needs_human_residuals for source in residual["sources"]})
+
+    state["head_sha"] = head or state.get("head_sha")
+    state["checks"] = new_checks
+    state["threads"] = new_threads
+    state["feedback"] = new_feedback
+    state["review_decision"] = cur["review_decision"]
+    state["mergeable"] = cur["mergeable"]
+    state["merge_state_status"] = cur["merge_state_status"]
+    observed_awaiting_approval = cur.get("awaiting_approval")
+    approval_probe_succeeded = observed_awaiting_approval is not None
+    awaiting_approval = (
+        observed_awaiting_approval
+        if approval_probe_succeeded
+        else state.get("awaiting_approval", 0)
+    )
+    state["awaiting_approval"] = awaiting_approval
+    if awaiting_approval > 0:
+        gate_is_new_for_head = (
+            state.get("blocked_external_head_sha") != head
+            or not state.get("blocked_external_review_last_activity_at")
+        )
+        if gate_is_new_for_head:
+            state["blocked_external_head_sha"] = head
+            state["blocked_external_first_seen_at"] = _iso(now)
+            state["blocked_external_review_last_activity_at"] = _iso(now)
+        elif external_review_moved:
+            state["blocked_external_review_last_activity_at"] = _iso(now)
+    elif approval_probe_succeeded:
+        state["blocked_external_head_sha"] = None
+        state["blocked_external_first_seen_at"] = None
+        state["blocked_external_review_last_activity_at"] = None
+    state["pr_chain"] = cur.get("pr_chain") or _default_pr_chain()
+    unrequested_base_merge = _detect_unrequested_base_merge(state, cur, head, head_changed, now)
+    unrequested_base_merge_pending = state.get("unrequested_base_merge_pending") == head
+    if unrequested_base_merge_pending and isinstance(cur.get("base"), dict) \
+            and _base_ref_blocker(cur["base"]) is None:
+        # An unclassified head is a pending merge computation: whatever else the base identity says
+        # (current or a bounded stale-computation degrade), it is not certain, not ready, not landable.
+        cur["base"]["identity"] = BASE_REF_MERGEABILITY_PENDING
+    state["base"] = cur.get("base")
+    if branch_currency and branch_currency.get("disposition") == DISPOSITION_OPEN:
+        _prepare_open_currency_item(
+            state, _load_branch_currency_state(state), branch_currency["key"],
+            branch_currency, now)
+    if branch_currency and ("currency", branch_currency.get("key")) in decision_coverage:
+        branch_currency["attention"] = None
+
+    actionable = {"ci": actionable_ci, "threads": actionable_threads, "comments": actionable_feedback}
+    # Reset on any change to the candidate id-set so a burst arriving over several polls settles
+    # into one wake; clear when it empties so the next candidate starts a fresh window.
+    feedback_ids = sorted(str(f.get("id")) for f in actionable_feedback)
+    if not feedback_ids:
+        state["feedback_candidate_changed_at"] = None
+    elif feedback_ids != state.get("feedback_candidate_ids"):
+        state["feedback_candidate_changed_at"] = _iso(now)
+    state["feedback_candidate_ids"] = feedback_ids
+    if advance_trajectory:
+        state["tick"] = state.get("tick", 0) + 1
+    # Record CI recurrence transitions on EVERY observation (polls too) so a fail->clear->fail seen
+    # only between agent ticks is not lost. head_sha for the check-level last_head is the observed
+    # head; the trajectory-level last_head (for heads_since_progress) is agent-tick-only, inside
+    # _update_trajectory.
+    _record_check_history(state, head, new_checks)
+    if advance_trajectory:
+        trajectory = _update_trajectory(
+            state, head, new_checks, new_threads, new_feedback, actionable, decision_coverage)
+    else:
+        # A watch poll detects change and advances the settle clock, but must NOT roll the rest of the
+        # trajectory (tick counter, seen_threads, unresolved_series, heads_since_progress). Advancing
+        # it would consume new_threads_this_tick — the waking poll marks the just-arrived thread
+        # "seen", so the agent's real tick reads 0 new arrivals and the review-bot-treadmill
+        # non-convergence trigger never fires. Only the agent's tick (advance_trajectory=True) rolls it.
+        trajectory = {}
+
+    # --- Settle window: any observable movement resets the quiet clock. ---
+    changed_this_tick = head_changed or _change_sig(state) != prior_change_sig or state.get("last_change_at") is None
+    if changed_this_tick:
+        state["last_change_at"] = _iso(now)
+    quiet_seconds = _elapsed(state.get("last_change_at"), now)
+
+    # Workflow runs awaiting maintainer approval (fork-PR gate) create no check-run, so they are
+    # invisible to the rollup above — surface them, and never call CI "ok" while the real CI is
+    # gated. blocked_external = the loop cannot progress (no failing check to fix, but CI can't run)
+    # and no one in this loop can unblock it — it is up to a maintainer of the base repo.
+    awaiting_approval = state["awaiting_approval"]
+    blocked_external_review_quiet_seconds = (
+        _elapsed(state.get("blocked_external_review_last_activity_at"), now)
+        if awaiting_approval > 0 else 0
+    )
+    # "OK" requires every check terminal, none failing, AND none gated on approval. A still-
+    # IN_PROGRESS or awaiting-approval check is neither ok nor failing — do not exit green.
+    all_checks_ok = checks_terminal and not has_failing and bool(cur["checks"]) and awaiting_approval == 0
+    blocked_external = (awaiting_approval > 0 and not has_failing and checks_terminal
+                        and not actionable_threads and not actionable_feedback)
+    invocation_elapsed = _active_elapsed(state, now)
+
+    return {
+        "pr_state": cur["pr_state"],
+        "pr_is_draft": cur.get("pr_is_draft"),
+        "mergeable": cur["mergeable"],
+        "merge_state_status": cur["merge_state_status"],
+        "review_decision": cur["review_decision"],
+        "head_sha": head,
+        "head_changed": head_changed,
+        "base": state.get("base"),
+        "mergeability_certain": _mergeability_certain(
+            cur.get("mergeable"), cur.get("merge_state_status"), cur.get("base")),
+        "base_ref_blocker": _base_ref_blocker(cur.get("base")),
+        "host_branch_update_capability": cur.get("host_branch_update_capability", "unknown"),
+        "branch_currency": branch_currency,
+        "unrequested_base_merge": unrequested_base_merge,
+        "unrequested_base_merge_pending": unrequested_base_merge_pending,
+        "branch_currency_blocker": ({
+            "key": branch_currency.get("key"),
+            "disposition": branch_currency.get("disposition"),
+            "recovery_state": branch_currency.get("recovery_state"),
+        } if branch_currency else None),
+        "url": cur["url"],
+        "has_failing_checks": has_failing,
+        "checks_terminal": checks_terminal,
+        "checks_present": bool(cur["checks"]),
+        "all_checks_ok": all_checks_ok,
+        "checks_awaiting_approval": awaiting_approval,
+        "blocked_external": blocked_external,
+        "blocked_external_first_seen_at": state.get("blocked_external_first_seen_at"),
+        "feedback_candidate_changed_at": state.get("feedback_candidate_changed_at"),
+        "blocked_external_review_last_activity_at": state.get(
+            "blocked_external_review_last_activity_at"),
+        "blocked_external_review_quiet_seconds": blocked_external_review_quiet_seconds,
+        "blocked_external_review_moved_this_tick": (
+            awaiting_approval > 0 and external_review_moved),
+        "pr_chain": state["pr_chain"],
+        "stack_blocker": _stack_blocker(state["pr_chain"], cur),
+        "open_needs_human": open_needs_human,
+        "needs_human_ids": needs_human_ids,
+        "needs_human_residuals": needs_human_residuals,
+        "human_decisions": [
+            {"decision_id": decision.get("id"), "residual": decision.get("residual")}
+            for decision in state.get("human_decisions", []) if isinstance(decision, dict)
+        ],
+        "answered_human_decisions": state.get("answered_human_decisions", []),
+        "actionable": {"threads": actionable_threads, "ci": actionable_ci, "comments": actionable_feedback},
+        "counts": {"threads": len(actionable_threads), "ci": len(actionable_ci),
+                   "comments": len(actionable_feedback), "needs_human": open_needs_human},
+        "changed_this_tick": changed_this_tick,
+        "quiet_seconds": quiet_seconds,
+        "invocation_id": state.get("invocation_id"),
+        "invocation_started_at": state.get("started_at"),
+        "invocation_elapsed_seconds": invocation_elapsed,
+        "invocation_budget_seconds": state.get("invocation_budget_seconds"),
+        "invocation_remaining_seconds": max(
+            0,
+            (state.get("invocation_budget_seconds") or 0) - invocation_elapsed,
+        ),
+        "invocation_wall_elapsed_seconds": _elapsed(state.get("started_at"), now),
+        "invocation_dead_time_seconds": int(state.get("dead_time_seconds") or 0),
+        "invocation_backstop_seconds": state.get("invocation_backstop_seconds"),
+        "persisted_state_created_at": state.get("state_created_at"),
+        "persisted_state_age_seconds": _elapsed(state.get("state_created_at"), now),
+        # Compatibility aliases for callers migrating from the original single-clock contract.
+        "session_started_at": state.get("started_at"),
+        "session_seconds": invocation_elapsed,
+        "watch_generation": state.get("watch_generation"),
+        "tick": state["tick"],
+        "trajectory": trajectory,
+    }, state
+
+
+def _settle_base(base):
+    """Base fields whose movement should reset the settle clock.
+
+    `stale-computation` is a presentation of a still-stable `race` candidate
+    (same head + live base) plus a report flag. Hashing those presentation
+    fields would reset last_change_at and add a synthetic settle delay.
+    Genuine identity values and freshness stay in the signature.
+    """
+    if not isinstance(base, dict):
+        return base
+    payload = {k: v for k, v in base.items() if k != "merge_computation_stale"}
+    if payload.get("identity") == BASE_REF_STALE_COMPUTATION:
+        payload["identity"] = BASE_REF_RACE
+    return payload
+
+
+def _change_sig(state):
+    """Everything whose movement should reset the settle clock."""
+    checks = {k: (v.get("status"), v.get("conclusion")) for k, v in state.get("checks", {}).items()}
+    threads = {tid: _thread_identity(v) for tid, v in state.get("threads", {}).items()}
+    # edit_id is part of the signal so a body edit of a silenced item still resets the settle
+    # clock (review activity happened) even though it no longer reopens the item (#1309).
+    feedback = {fid: (v.get("disposition"), v.get("edit_id"))
+                for fid, v in state.get("feedback", {}).items()}
+    human_decisions = sorted(
+        item.get("id") for item in state.get("human_decisions", [])
+        if isinstance(item, dict))
+    currency = _load_branch_currency_state(state)
+    current_currency = currency.get("items", {}).get(currency.get("current_key")) or {}
+    return (checks, threads, feedback, human_decisions,
+            state.get("review_decision"), state.get("mergeable"),
+            state.get("merge_state_status"),
+            json.dumps(state.get("pr_chain") or _default_pr_chain(), sort_keys=True),
+            json.dumps(_settle_base(state.get("base")), sort_keys=True),
+            (current_currency.get("host_branch_update_capability")
+             if current_currency.get("status") == "BEHIND" else None),
+            currency.get("current_key"), current_currency.get("disposition"),
+            current_currency.get("attention"), current_currency.get("recovery_state"),
+            current_currency.get("retry_count"), current_currency.get("mutation_consumed"),
+            # awaiting-approval clearing is movement: a fork gate lifting must reset the settle clock
+            # so merge-ready waits for the now-imminent check-runs instead of firing on an empty rollup.
+            bool(state.get("awaiting_approval")))
+
+
+def _stack_blocker(chain, cur=None):
+    """Return the manager-currency residual that blocks target readiness, if any.
+    Manager freshness (`needsRebase`) fires on plain trunk drift, which GitHub already prices into
+    the target's own mergeability against its parent base; so a certain MERGEABLE/CLEAN read defers
+    to GitHub and only a stale-or-unknown target that GitHub does not clear blocks."""
+    status = (chain or {}).get("manager_status")
+    if status == MANAGER_PROBE_ERROR:
+        return "manager-probe-error"
+    if (chain or {}).get("relationship_status") == RELATIONSHIP_PROBE_ERROR:
+        return "relationship-probe-error"
+    if status == MANAGER_CONFIRMED:
+        freshness = chain.get("target_needs_rebase")
+        if freshness is False:
+            return None
+        cur = cur or {}
+        if (cur.get("mergeable") == "MERGEABLE" and cur.get("merge_state_status") == "CLEAN"
+                and _mergeability_certain(cur.get("mergeable"), cur.get("merge_state_status"),
+                                          cur.get("base"))):
+            return None
+        if freshness is True:
+            return "target-needs-rebase"
+        return "managed-freshness-unknown"
+    return None
+
+
+def _parse_iso8601(value):
+    if isinstance(value, str) and value.endswith("Z"):
+        value = value[:-1] + "+00:00"
+    return datetime.fromisoformat(value)
+
+
+def _elapsed(iso_str, now):
+    try:
+        return int((now - _parse_iso8601(iso_str)).total_seconds())
+    except (ValueError, TypeError):
+        return 0
+
+
+def _advance_activity(state, now, threshold=DEAD_TIME_THRESHOLD_SECONDS, accumulate=True):
+    """Advance the activity heartbeat, and (for the in-session watch) accumulate suspended time.
+
+    Every watch poll and every agent snapshot/mark marks activity. A gap wider than `threshold`
+    means the whole process was not running — a suspended machine — so, when accumulating, the
+    excess beyond the threshold is charged to dead time and later excluded from active elapsed.
+    Agent snapshots/marks bump the heartbeat with `accumulate=False`, so active agent work keeps the
+    heartbeat fresh and is not refunded as long as the agent touches state (snapshots or marks) within
+    the threshold; a single silent tick longer than the threshold is the coarse-discriminator limit
+    the plan defers, bounded by the wall-clock backstop. Dead time only ever grows in the watch loop.
+    Clock-backward safe: `_elapsed` floors negative deltas at 0 and the accumulator never decreases.
+    """
+    last = state.get("last_activity_at") or state.get("started_at")
+    if accumulate:
+        gap = _elapsed(last, now)
+        if gap > threshold:
+            state["dead_time_seconds"] = (state.get("dead_time_seconds") or 0) + (gap - threshold)
+    state["last_activity_at"] = _iso(now)
+
+
+def _active_elapsed(state, now):
+    """Wall-clock elapsed since the invocation anchor, minus accumulated suspended (dead) time."""
+    wall = _elapsed(state.get("started_at"), now)
+    return max(0, wall - int(state.get("dead_time_seconds") or 0))
+
+
+def _session_started_at(value):
+    """Parse one invocation-wide, timezone-aware budget anchor for reuse across state dirs."""
+    try:
+        parsed = _parse_iso8601(value)
+    except (ValueError, TypeError):
+        raise argparse.ArgumentTypeError("must be an ISO-8601 timestamp")
+    if parsed.tzinfo is None:
+        raise argparse.ArgumentTypeError("must include a timezone")
+    return _iso(parsed.astimezone(timezone.utc))
+
+
+@contextmanager
+def locked_state(state_dir, pr, repo, now):
+    state_path = os.path.join(state_dir, "state.json")
+    with _state_lock(state_dir):
+        if os.path.exists(state_path):
+            with open(state_path) as f:
+                state = json.load(f)
+        else:
+            state = _empty_state(pr, repo, None, now)
+        # Older state used `started_at` for both durable-state age and the active budget. Preserve
+        # that original value as the state birth time before a new invocation replaces the clock.
+        state.setdefault("state_created_at", state.get("started_at") or _iso(now))
+        # Active-time accounting fields migrate onto legacy state on first observation. Seed the
+        # heartbeat to *now*, not the old anchor: there is no recorded activity for the pre-migration
+        # period, so charging that whole span as one supra-threshold gap would refund the entire
+        # historical invocation (a 9h-old 8h run would read as ~15 min active and never max-runtime).
+        # Seeding to load time makes the first poll see a ~0 gap and keeps elapsed on real wall-clock.
+        state.setdefault("last_activity_at", _iso(now))
+        state.setdefault("dead_time_seconds", 0.0)
+        state.setdefault("invocation_backstop_seconds", DEFAULT_INVOCATION_BACKSTOP_SECONDS)
+        box = {"state": state}
+        yield box
+        tmp = tempfile.NamedTemporaryFile("w", dir=state_dir, delete=False)
+        json.dump(box["state"], tmp, indent=2)
+        tmp.flush()
+        os.fsync(tmp.fileno())
+        tmp.close()
+        _replace_atomic(tmp.name, state_path)
+
+
+def _fetch_snapshot(args):
+    """Fetch current PR state without mutating the persisted babysit state."""
+    if args.fetch_file:
+        with open(args.fetch_file) as f:
+            return json.load(f)
+    return fetch(args.pr, args.repo)
+
+
+def _apply_invocation(box, args, now):
+    """Start explicitly, or reuse the one fixed clock named by an explicit invocation token."""
+    state = box["state"]
+    start_requested = bool(getattr(args, "start_invocation", False)
+                           or getattr(args, "reset_session", False))
+    continue_requested = bool(getattr(args, "continue_invocation", False))
+    invocation_id = getattr(args, "invocation_id", None)
+    requested_started_at = getattr(args, "session_started_at", None)
+    requested_budget = getattr(args, "invocation_budget_seconds", None)
+
+    if start_requested:
+        invocation_id = uuid.uuid4().hex
+        requested_started_at = _iso(now)
+        requested_budget = requested_budget or DEFAULT_INVOCATION_BUDGET_SECONDS
+        state["invocation_id"] = invocation_id
+        state["started_at"] = requested_started_at
+        state["invocation_budget_seconds"] = requested_budget
+        # A fresh invocation resets the active-time clock: heartbeat at now, no dead time yet.
+        state["last_activity_at"] = _iso(now)
+        state["dead_time_seconds"] = 0.0
+        state.setdefault("invocation_backstop_seconds", DEFAULT_INVOCATION_BACKSTOP_SECONDS)
+        args.invocation_id = invocation_id
+        args.session_started_at = requested_started_at
+        args.invocation_budget_seconds = requested_budget
+        args._started_new_invocation = True
+        return
+
+    if not invocation_id:
+        raise SystemExit("pass --start-invocation on the first snapshot or --invocation-id to resume it")
+
+    if continue_requested:
+        if not requested_started_at or not requested_budget:
+            raise SystemExit("--continue-invocation requires its fixed start and budget")
+        if state.get("invocation_id") == invocation_id:
+            try:
+                same_anchor = (_parse_iso8601(state.get("started_at"))
+                               == _parse_iso8601(requested_started_at))
+            except (ValueError, TypeError):
+                same_anchor = False
+            if not same_anchor or state.get("invocation_budget_seconds") != requested_budget:
+                raise SystemExit("continuation cannot renew or extend an existing invocation")
+            # Honor a carry arg on a same-invocation re-continue too, as a monotonic floor: raise the
+            # dead-time to the carried value without clobbering time this dir already accumulated
+            # (dead time only ever grows). This makes the carry order-independent — it lands whether
+            # it arrives on the first adopt or a later re-continue.
+            continue_dead_time = getattr(args, "continue_dead_time_seconds", None)
+            if continue_dead_time is not None:
+                state["dead_time_seconds"] = max(
+                    state.get("dead_time_seconds") or 0, float(continue_dead_time))
+            return
+        state["invocation_id"] = invocation_id
+        state["started_at"] = requested_started_at
+        state["invocation_budget_seconds"] = requested_budget
+        # Adopting an invocation into this state dir establishes a fresh active-time clock. Seed the
+        # heartbeat to now (not the shared anchor, which may be hours old) so the first poll sees a
+        # ~0 gap and does not refund the span between the anchor and adoption as dead time.
+        state["last_activity_at"] = _iso(now)
+        # Dead time is per-state-dir, but a managed-stack continuation shares one active-time budget
+        # across layers, so it explicitly carries the prior layer's accumulated dead time here. Absent
+        # that arg (an ordinary adopt of an unrelated dir), reset to 0 rather than inherit stale state.
+        continue_dead_time = getattr(args, "continue_dead_time_seconds", None)
+        state["dead_time_seconds"] = float(continue_dead_time) if continue_dead_time is not None else 0.0
+        state.setdefault("invocation_backstop_seconds", DEFAULT_INVOCATION_BACKSTOP_SECONDS)
+        return
+
+    persisted_id = state.get("invocation_id")
+    persisted_started_at = state.get("started_at")
+    persisted_budget = state.get("invocation_budget_seconds")
+    if persisted_id != invocation_id:
+        raise SystemExit("invocation token does not match persisted state; start or continue explicitly")
+    try:
+        anchors_match = (_parse_iso8601(persisted_started_at)
+                         == _parse_iso8601(requested_started_at))
+    except (ValueError, TypeError):
+        anchors_match = False
+    if not anchors_match:
+        raise SystemExit("invocation token does not match the persisted budget anchor")
+    if persisted_budget != requested_budget:
+        raise SystemExit("invocation token does not match the persisted fixed budget")
+
+
+def _apply_snapshot(box, args, cur, now, advance_trajectory):
+    """Apply one fetched snapshot to a caller-owned locked state box."""
+    if box["state"].get("pr", {}).get("url") is None and cur.get("url"):
+        box["state"]["pr"]["url"] = cur["url"]
+    _apply_invocation(box, args, now)
+    return diff(box["state"], cur, now, advance_trajectory=advance_trajectory)
+
+
+def _run_snapshot(args, now, advance_trajectory=True, watch_generation=None):
+    """One fetch -> diff -> persist. Returns the actionable/state dict."""
+    cur = _fetch_snapshot(args)
+    # Re-capture the clock *after* the (blocking) fetch so activity accounting reflects post-fetch
+    # time: a suspend that lands during the fetch is then credited as dead time by this poll's
+    # _advance_activity, instead of leaving the next top-of-loop budget check to fire max-runtime on
+    # a gap it hasn't yet excluded. It also keeps a new invocation's slow first fetch off its budget.
+    now = _now()
+    with locked_state(args.state_dir, args.pr, args.repo, now) as box:
+        if watch_generation is not None and box["state"].get("watch_generation") != watch_generation:
+            raise _WatchSuperseded()
+        if (watch_generation is not None
+                and box["state"].get("invocation_id") != getattr(args, "invocation_id", None)):
+            raise _InvocationSuperseded(box["state"].get("invocation_id"))
+        # Only the self-sustaining in-session watch (watch_generation set) accumulates dead time;
+        # an agent-driven snapshot bumps the heartbeat without accumulating, so checkpoint/durable
+        # runs — which have no continuous poll cadence — keep pure wall-clock accounting.
+        if box["state"].get("started_at"):
+            _advance_activity(box["state"], now, accumulate=watch_generation is not None)
+        actionable, box["state"] = _apply_snapshot(box, args, cur, now, advance_trajectory)
+    return actionable
+
+
+def cmd_snapshot(args):
+    result = _run_snapshot(args, _now())
+    if (getattr(args, "_started_new_invocation", False)
+            and _elapsed(result.get("invocation_started_at"), _now()) > 60):
+        raise SystemExit("new invocation unexpectedly inherited more than 60 seconds of elapsed time")
+    print(json.dumps(result, separators=(",", ":")))
+
+
+def _wake_reason(a, settle_seconds, feedback_coalesce_seconds=FEEDBACK_COALESCE_SECONDS):
+    """Why the in-session agent should wake and run a tick, or None to keep watching.
+    Ordered by precedence — a terminal/blocked/needs-human state outranks a merge-ready read."""
+    if a.get("pr_state") in ("MERGED", "CLOSED"):
+        return "terminal"
+    c = a.get("counts") or {}
+    if c.get("threads", 0) or c.get("ci", 0):
+        return "actionable"
+    if c.get("comments", 0):
+        # Coalesced per FEEDBACK_COALESCE_SECONDS above; falling through costs nothing, since the
+        # set stays actionable and whichever tick runs still sees every candidate. `_elapsed` reads
+        # a missing or unparseable clock as 0, so unknown must wake rather than hold forever.
+        changed_at = a.get("feedback_candidate_changed_at")
+        if changed_at is None or _elapsed(changed_at, _now()) >= feedback_coalesce_seconds:
+            return "feedback-candidate"
+    if a.get("stack_blocker"):
+        return "stack-blocked"
+    base_ref_blocker = (a.get("base_ref_blocker")
+                        if "base_ref_blocker" in a else _base_ref_blocker(a.get("base")))
+    if base_ref_blocker:
+        return "base-ref-blocked"
+    if a.get("unrequested_base_merge"):
+        return "unrequested-base-merge"
+    branch_currency = a.get("branch_currency") or {}
+    if a.get("has_failing_checks") and a.get("checks_terminal"):
+        # a dispatched check left terminally red (counts.ci is 0 — nothing new to dispatch) is a
+        # blocker to hand back, not a reason to idle to max-runtime.
+        return "blocked-failing"
+    # Branch maintenance is a third attention stream. It runs only after new review/CI work and
+    # standing red blockers are clear, but a passive in-progress check or review signal does not
+    # delay a BEHIND update that will invalidate that work anyway. Claimed observations wake only
+    # for reconciliation; confirmed and parked residuals remain quiet.
+    if branch_currency.get("attention") in (CURRENCY_ATTENTION_CLAIM,
+                                             CURRENCY_ATTENTION_DECIDE,
+                                             CURRENCY_ATTENTION_INSPECT,
+                                             CURRENCY_ATTENTION_RECONCILE):
+        return "branch-currency"
+    if a.get("blocked_external"):
+        return "blocked-external"
+    if a.get("open_needs_human", 0):
+        return "needs-human"         # parked items block ready; surface them
+    # A widened window is the agent's own judgment about evidence it looked at. When that evidence
+    # moves, the judgment may no longer hold, so hand the decision back rather than sleeping out a
+    # window armed against a state that has since changed. Movement is the whole trigger: unchanged
+    # evidence never fires this, which is what keeps it from re-deciding something the agent already
+    # settled. The engine reports that something moved and nothing more — whether the movement
+    # resolved anything is the agent's call at the settle decision.
+    if settle_seconds > DEFAULT_SETTLE_SECONDS and a.get("changed_this_tick"):
+        return "review-evidence-moved"
+    # merge-ready candidate: green, settled, nothing left in the attention set. Whether a review is
+    # still on its way is the agent's judgment at the settle decision, from live GitHub evidence the
+    # engine does not model; this wake hands it that decision rather than pre-empting it.
+    # Interactive merge-ready does NOT require `all_checks_ok`'s "at least one observed check": a repo
+    # with no configured checks has a CLEAN/MERGEABLE PR that should be callable ready. (That guard
+    # stays in pipeline success, where a not-yet-created rollup must not read as a pass.)
+    mergeability_certain = a.get("mergeability_certain")
+    if mergeability_certain is None:
+        mergeability_certain = _mergeability_certain(
+            a.get("mergeable"), a.get("merge_state_status"), a.get("base"))
+    if (mergeability_certain and a.get("mergeable") == "MERGEABLE"
+            and a.get("merge_state_status") == "CLEAN"
+            and a.get("checks_terminal") and not a.get("has_failing_checks")
+            and a.get("checks_awaiting_approval", 0) == 0
+            and a.get("branch_currency_blocker") is None
+            and a.get("quiet_seconds", 0) >= settle_seconds):
+        return "merge-ready"
+    return None
+
+
+def _emit_wake(reason, **fields):
+    print(json.dumps({"event": "BABYSIT_WAKE", "reason": reason, **fields}), flush=True)
+
+
+def _persisted_watch_generation(args):
+    """Best-effort read of current ownership without creating or mutating watch state."""
+    try:
+        with open(os.path.join(args.state_dir, "state.json")) as f:
+            state = json.load(f)
+    except (OSError, json.JSONDecodeError):
+        return None
+    generation = state.get("watch_generation") if isinstance(state, dict) else None
+    return generation if isinstance(generation, str) and generation else None
+
+
+def _blocker_sig(a):
+    """Identity of blockers the agent surfaces once but cannot self-clear — parked needs-human
+    items, a dispatched terminally-red check, and a fork workflow awaiting maintainer approval. The
+    watch captures this at arm time and does not re-wake on a blocker already in that baseline, so a
+    parked residual keeps the watch alive (or the blocked-external bounded watch keeps polling for
+    the gate to clear) instead of busy-waking or terminating on the same condition."""
+    sig = set(a.get("needs_human_ids") or [])
+    if a.get("has_failing_checks") and a.get("checks_terminal") and not (a.get("counts") or {}).get("ci"):
+        sig.add("__terminal_red__")
+    if a.get("blocked_external"):
+        sig.add("__blocked_external__")
+        sig.add(("approval-review-state", a.get("review_decision")))
+    if a.get("stack_blocker"):
+        sig.add(f"__stack__:{a['stack_blocker']}")
+    if a.get("base_ref_blocker"):
+        sig.add(f"__base_ref__:{a['base_ref_blocker']}")
+    if a.get("unrequested_base_merge"):
+        sig.add(("unrequested-base-merge", a["unrequested_base_merge"].get("head")))
+    branch_currency = a.get("branch_currency") or {}
+    currency_disposition = branch_currency.get("disposition")
+    if (currency_disposition == CURRENCY_CONFIRMED
+            or (currency_disposition == CURRENCY_CLAIMED
+                and not branch_currency.get("attention"))):
+        sig.add(("currency", branch_currency.get("key"), currency_disposition,
+                 branch_currency.get("recovery_state")))
+    # A new head is "context materially changed": a human may have pushed a commit that answers or
+    # supersedes a parked residual, so the head is part of the baseline — when it moves, the residual
+    # is no longer "already-surfaced against this state" and the watch wakes to give the agent a tick
+    # to reopen/reprocess it, instead of parking forever while it still blocks merge-ready.
+    if sig:
+        sig.add(("head", a.get("head_sha")))
+    return frozenset(sig)
+
+
+def _process_identity(pid):
+    """Best-effort PID-reuse guard for replacing a prior watcher. If process identity cannot be
+    proven, generation invalidation still suppresses its wake and we leave OS cleanup alone."""
+    if IS_WINDOWS:
+        return _win_process_identity(pid)
+    try:
+        r = subprocess.run(["ps", "-p", str(pid), "-o", "lstart=", "-o", "command="],
+                           capture_output=True, text=True, encoding="utf-8")
+    except OSError:
+        return None   # no ps on PATH: unproven identity, same as a failed lookup
+    if r.returncode != 0:
+        return None
+    return (r.stdout or "").strip() or None
+
+
+def _watch_candidate_path(args):
+    return os.path.join(args.state_dir, "watch-candidate.json")
+
+
+def _read_watch_candidate(args):
+    try:
+        with open(_watch_candidate_path(args)) as f:
+            candidate = json.load(f)
+    except (FileNotFoundError, json.JSONDecodeError):
+        return {}
+    return candidate if isinstance(candidate, dict) else {}
+
+
+def _reserve_watch_candidate(args, generation):
+    """Make this invocation the newest candidate without displacing the active watcher."""
+    candidate = {
+        "generation": generation,
+        "pid": os.getpid(),
+        "process_identity": _process_identity(os.getpid()),
+    }
+    with _state_lock(args.state_dir, exclusive=True):
+        previous = _read_watch_candidate(args)
+        tmp = tempfile.NamedTemporaryFile("w", dir=args.state_dir, delete=False)
+        json.dump(candidate, tmp)
+        tmp.flush()
+        os.fsync(tmp.fileno())
+        tmp.close()
+        _replace_atomic(tmp.name, _watch_candidate_path(args))
+    return previous
+
+
+def _clear_watch_candidate(args, generation):
+    with _state_lock(args.state_dir, exclusive=True):
+        if _read_watch_candidate(args).get("generation") != generation:
+            return
+        try:
+            os.unlink(_watch_candidate_path(args))
+        except FileNotFoundError:
+            pass
+
+
+def _activate_watch(args, generation, now, cur):
+    """Atomically activate this watcher and persist its successfully fetched preflight."""
+    identity = _process_identity(os.getpid())
+    with locked_state(args.state_dir, args.pr, args.repo, now) as box:
+        if _read_watch_candidate(args).get("generation") != generation:
+            return None, None
+        state = box["state"]
+        previous = {
+            "pid": state.get("watch_pid"),
+            "process_identity": state.get("watch_process_identity"),
+        }
+        state["watch_generation"] = generation
+        state["watch_pid"] = os.getpid()
+        state["watch_process_identity"] = identity
+        # The arming poll is a real in-session watch poll: accumulate any suspended span since the
+        # last activity (e.g. the watch armed right after the machine resumed) before reading elapsed.
+        if state.get("started_at"):
+            _advance_activity(state, now, accumulate=True)
+        actionable, box["state"] = _apply_snapshot(box, args, cur, now, advance_trajectory=False)
+        try:
+            os.unlink(_watch_candidate_path(args))
+        except FileNotFoundError:
+            pass
+    return previous, actionable
+
+
+def _watch_is_current(args, generation):
+    """Read the ownership generation under the state lock without rewriting state.json."""
+    state_path = os.path.join(args.state_dir, "state.json")
+    with _state_lock(args.state_dir, exclusive=False):
+        if not os.path.exists(state_path):
+            return False
+        with open(state_path) as f:
+            return json.load(f).get("watch_generation") == generation
+
+
+def _emit_wake_if_current(args, generation, reason, **fields):
+    """Serialize the final ownership check with takeover so an old generation cannot emit after
+    the new generation has become current. Invocation replacement also supersedes every ordinary
+    wake from the old budget, even when the replacement kept the same watch generation."""
+    state_path = os.path.join(args.state_dir, "state.json")
+    with _state_lock(args.state_dir, exclusive=False):
+        if not os.path.exists(state_path):
+            return False
+        with open(state_path) as f:
+            state = json.load(f)
+        if state.get("watch_generation") != generation:
+            return False
+        current_invocation_id = state.get("invocation_id")
+        watcher_invocation_id = getattr(args, "invocation_id", None)
+        if current_invocation_id != watcher_invocation_id and reason != "invocation-superseded":
+            _emit_wake(
+                "invocation-superseded", watch_generation=generation,
+                superseded_invocation_id=watcher_invocation_id,
+                current_invocation_id=current_invocation_id,
+            )
+            return True
+        _emit_wake(reason, watch_generation=generation, **fields)
+        return True
+
+
+def _terminate_replaced_watch(previous):
+    """Promptly stop the replaced process, but never signal a PID whose identity no longer matches.
+
+    On Windows os.kill maps to TerminateProcess, so the replaced watcher dies abruptly instead of
+    unwinding a SIGTERM handler: it cannot clear its own watch candidate, nor finish terminating a
+    predecessor it was mid-handoff with. Neither leaks. The replacement has already written its own
+    candidate before calling this, and any watcher left running reads a foreign watch_generation on
+    its next poll and exits on its own — so the abrupt path costs at most one poll interval."""
+    pid = previous.get("pid")
+    identity = previous.get("process_identity")
+    if not isinstance(pid, int) or pid == os.getpid() or not identity:
+        return
+    if _process_identity(pid) != identity:
+        return
+    try:
+        os.kill(pid, signal.SIGTERM)
+    except OSError:
+        pass   # exited between the identity check and here (Windows reports this as a plain OSError)
+
+
+def _downstack_targets(args):
+    """(pr, fetch_file_or_None) for each --downstack-pr; test fixtures bind a file per PR."""
+    files = {}
+    for spec in (getattr(args, "downstack_fetch_file", None) or []):
+        pr_text, _, path = spec.partition("=")
+        if pr_text.isdigit() and path:
+            files[int(pr_text)] = path
+    return [(pr, files.get(pr)) for pr in (getattr(args, "downstack_pr", None) or [])]
+
+
+def _downstack_sig(args):
+    """Stateless signature of the lower stack layers built from the same identities the engine
+    uses to decide that a layer has work: the head, each unresolved thread's remote-truth identity
+    (`_thread_identity` — a reply or an edit both change it), each non-thread comment by id (bodies
+    are rewritten by status bots and are not new work), failing checks by the canonical `FAILING`
+    set, the merge state when it demands maintenance, the manager classification tuple, and the PR
+    state. The watcher captures it at arm time and wakes `downstack-actionable` only when it grows,
+    so already-parked or dispatched lower-layer items do not re-wake, but any observation that would
+    make a lower layer non-quiescent does."""
+    sig = set()
+    for pr, fetch_file in _downstack_targets(args):
+        try:
+            if fetch_file:
+                with open(fetch_file) as f:
+                    cur = json.load(f)
+            else:
+                cur = fetch(pr, args.repo, light=True)
+        except (OSError, ValueError, SystemExit):
+            continue   # a failed lower-layer probe never wakes or blocks; the next poll retries
+        head = cur.get("head_sha")
+        sig.add((pr, "head", head))
+        sig.add((pr, "state", cur.get("pr_state")))
+        for t in cur.get("threads") or []:
+            sig.add((pr, "thread", t.get("thread_id"), _thread_identity(t)))
+        for c in cur.get("feedback") or []:
+            sig.add((pr, "comment", c.get("id")))
+        for c in cur.get("checks") or []:
+            if (c.get("status") or "").upper() == "COMPLETED" and (c.get("conclusion") or "").upper() in FAILING:
+                sig.add((pr, "check", head, c.get("key")))
+        status = (cur.get("merge_state_status") or "").upper()
+        if status in ("DIRTY", "BEHIND"):
+            sig.add((pr, "currency", status, head))
+        chain = cur.get("pr_chain") if isinstance(cur.get("pr_chain"), dict) else {}
+        sig.add((pr, "manager", chain.get("manager_status"), chain.get("target_needs_rebase")))
+    return frozenset(sig)
+
+
+def cmd_watch(args):
+    """Deterministic background change-detector (no agent tokens between changes): poll on an
+    interval, print one wake sentinel line and exit when there is something for the agent to do
+    (work to inspect or a stop condition), or exit on the stop-signal file / max-runtime.
+    A residual already present at arm time (a parked needs-human, or a dispatched terminal-red the
+    agent already handed back) does NOT re-wake the loop — it keeps watching the other streams;
+    only a *new* blocker (signature grown past the baseline) wakes."""
+    stop_requested = threading.Event()
+    interrupt_immediately = True
+    superseded = False
+    generation = uuid.uuid4().hex
+
+    # An already-requested stop is authoritative before this invocation becomes a candidate. Use
+    # current ownership for the wake when one exists, but do not fetch, reserve, mutate watch state,
+    # or disturb that incumbent merely to report the stop condition.
+    if args.stop_file and os.path.exists(args.stop_file):
+        _emit_wake("stop-signal", watch_generation=_persisted_watch_generation(args) or generation)
+        return
+
+    def request_stop(_signum, _frame):
+        nonlocal superseded
+        superseded = True
+        stop_requested.set()
+        if interrupt_immediately:
+            raise _WatchSuperseded()
+
+    # Cooperative supersession. Windows accepts this handler but never delivers SIGTERM across
+    # processes, so there it is inert and the loop's own watch_generation checks are what retire a
+    # replaced watcher — the handler is the fast path, not the correctness guarantee.
+    prior_sigterm = signal.getsignal(signal.SIGTERM)
+    signal.signal(signal.SIGTERM, request_stop)
+    try:
+        previous_candidate = _reserve_watch_candidate(args, generation)
+        _terminate_replaced_watch(previous_candidate)
+
+        # Preflight before takeover: an invalid fetch/auth/config must not displace a healthy watcher.
+        cur = _fetch_snapshot(args)
+        if stop_requested.is_set():
+            return
+
+        # Finish the handoff even if an even newer watcher arrives: otherwise that watcher could
+        # stop us between activation and terminating our predecessor, orphaning the oldest process.
+        interrupt_immediately = False
+        previous, actionable = _activate_watch(args, generation, _now(), cur)
+        if previous is None:
+            superseded = True
+            return
+        _terminate_replaced_watch(previous)
+        interrupt_immediately = True
+        if stop_requested.is_set():
+            return
+
+        armed = _blocker_sig(actionable)  # blockers already surfaced when this generation armed
+        downstack_targets = _downstack_targets(args)
+        downstack_armed = _downstack_sig(args) if downstack_targets else frozenset()
+        while True:
+            if stop_requested.is_set():
+                return
+            if not _watch_is_current(args, generation):
+                superseded = True
+                return
+            if args.stop_file and os.path.exists(args.stop_file):
+                _emit_wake_if_current(args, generation, "stop-signal")
+                return
+            now = _now()
+            # Active elapsed = raw wall-clock minus accumulated suspended time (dead_time was
+            # updated by the previous poll's _run_snapshot, including any gap from a resumed
+            # suspension). The 8h budget spends active time; the 3-day backstop is raw wall-clock.
+            wall_elapsed = _elapsed(actionable.get("invocation_started_at"), now)
+            dead_time = int(actionable.get("invocation_dead_time_seconds") or 0)
+            invocation_elapsed = max(0, wall_elapsed - dead_time)
+            budget = actionable.get("invocation_budget_seconds") or 0
+            backstop = actionable.get("invocation_backstop_seconds") or 0
+            actionable["invocation_elapsed_seconds"] = invocation_elapsed
+            actionable["invocation_remaining_seconds"] = max(0, budget - invocation_elapsed)
+            actionable["invocation_wall_elapsed_seconds"] = wall_elapsed
+            actionable["persisted_state_age_seconds"] = _elapsed(
+                actionable.get("persisted_state_created_at"), now)
+            reason = _wake_reason(
+                actionable, args.settle_seconds,
+                getattr(args, "feedback_coalesce_seconds", FEEDBACK_COALESCE_SECONDS))
+            if reason in ("terminal", "merge-ready"):
+                _emit_wake_if_current(args, generation, reason, url=actionable.get("url"),
+                                      pr_state=actionable.get("pr_state"), counts=actionable.get("counts"))
+                return
+            active_cap_hit = bool(budget) and invocation_elapsed >= budget
+            backstop_hit = bool(backstop) and wall_elapsed >= backstop
+            if active_cap_hit or backstop_hit:
+                _emit_wake_if_current(
+                    args, generation, "max-runtime", url=actionable.get("url"),
+                    invocation_id=actionable.get("invocation_id"),
+                    invocation_started_at=actionable.get("invocation_started_at"),
+                    invocation_elapsed_seconds=actionable.get("invocation_elapsed_seconds"),
+                    invocation_budget_seconds=budget,
+                    invocation_wall_elapsed_seconds=wall_elapsed,
+                    invocation_backstop_seconds=backstop or None,
+                    max_runtime_ceiling=("backstop" if backstop_hit and not active_cap_hit
+                                         else "active-budget"),
+                    persisted_state_age_seconds=actionable.get("persisted_state_age_seconds"),
+                )
+                return
+            drain_seconds = getattr(args, "blocked_external_drain_seconds", None)
+            drain_quiet = actionable.get("blocked_external_review_quiet_seconds", 0)
+            if (drain_seconds is not None and actionable.get("blocked_external")
+                    and drain_quiet >= drain_seconds):
+                _emit_wake_if_current(
+                    args, generation, "blocked-external-drained", url=actionable.get("url"),
+                    pr_state=actionable.get("pr_state"), counts=actionable.get("counts"),
+                    blocked_external_review_quiet_seconds=drain_quiet,
+                    blocked_external_drain_seconds=drain_seconds,
+                )
+                return
+            approval_review_moved = (
+                reason == "blocked-external"
+                and actionable.get("blocked_external_review_moved_this_tick"))
+            if (reason in ("needs-human", "blocked-failing", "blocked-external",
+                           "stack-blocked", "base-ref-blocked", "unrequested-base-merge")
+                    and not approval_review_moved and _blocker_sig(actionable) <= armed):
+                reason = None   # already-surfaced residual — keep watching, do not re-wake or terminate
+            if reason:
+                _emit_wake_if_current(args, generation, reason, url=actionable.get("url"),
+                                      pr_state=actionable.get("pr_state"), counts=actionable.get("counts"))
+                return
+            if downstack_targets:
+                grown = _downstack_sig(args) - downstack_armed
+                if grown:
+                    _emit_wake_if_current(
+                        args, generation, "downstack-actionable", url=actionable.get("url"),
+                        pr_state=actionable.get("pr_state"), counts=actionable.get("counts"),
+                        downstack_prs=sorted({item[0] for item in grown}))
+                    return
+            remaining = max(0, budget - invocation_elapsed) if budget else args.interval
+            wait_seconds = min(args.interval, remaining)
+            if stop_requested.wait(wait_seconds):
+                return
+            if not _watch_is_current(args, generation):
+                superseded = True
+                return
+            actionable = _run_snapshot(args, _now(), advance_trajectory=False,
+                                       watch_generation=generation)
+    except _WatchSuperseded:
+        superseded = True
+        return
+    except _InvocationSuperseded as exc:
+        superseded = True
+        _emit_wake_if_current(
+            args, generation, "invocation-superseded",
+            superseded_invocation_id=getattr(args, "invocation_id", None),
+            current_invocation_id=exc.current_invocation_id,
+        )
+        return
+    finally:
+        interrupt_immediately = False
+        _clear_watch_candidate(args, generation)
+        # A newer owner can still signal our recorded PID after observing us stale but before this
+        # process has exited. Keep that late takeover signal harmless; ordinary wake/timeout/stop
+        # returns restore the embedding caller's handler as before.
+        signal.signal(signal.SIGTERM, signal.SIG_IGN if superseded else prior_sigterm)
+
+
+def _mark_thread_records(item_ids, args, state):
+    """Best-effort current records for every thread covered by one atomic mark."""
+    wanted = set(item_ids)
+    if not wanted:
+        return {}
+    try:
+        if getattr(args, "fetch_file", None):
+            with open(args.fetch_file) as f:
+                threads = json.load(f).get("threads", [])
+        else:
+            owner, name, host = _resolve_repo_ref(args.repo, (state.get("pr") or {}).get("url"))
+            threads = fetch_threads(args.pr, owner, name, host)
+    except (SystemExit, Exception):  # SystemExit (from _run_checked) is not an Exception subclass
+        return {}
+    return {
+        thread.get("thread_id"): thread
+        for thread in threads if thread.get("thread_id") in wanted
+    }
+
+
+def _mark_thread_baselines(item_ids, args, state):
+    """Best-effort current identities for every thread covered by one atomic mark."""
+    return {
+        thread_id: [thread.get("last_comment_id"), thread.get("last_comment_at")]
+        for thread_id, thread in _mark_thread_records(item_ids, args, state).items()
+    }
+
+
+def _mark_thread_baseline(item_id, args, state):
+    """Compatibility wrapper for an ordinary single-thread dispatched mark."""
+    return _mark_thread_baselines([item_id], args, state).get(item_id)
+
+
+def _mark_branch_currency(args, state, now):
+    currency = _load_branch_currency_state(state)
+    key = args.currency_key
+    if not key or currency.get("current_key") != key:
+        raise SystemExit("currency mark requires the exact current observation key")
+    item = currency.get("items", {}).get(key)
+    if not isinstance(item, dict):
+        raise SystemExit("currency mark requires a current observed item")
+    prior = item.get("disposition", DISPOSITION_OPEN)
+    outcome = args.currency_outcome
+    inspected_fingerprint = args.currency_inspected_fingerprint
+
+    if outcome:
+        if prior != CURRENCY_CLAIMED:
+            raise SystemExit("currency outcomes require a claimed observation")
+        item["reconciled_invocation_id"] = state.get("invocation_id")
+        item["reconciled_at"] = _iso(now)
+        if outcome == CURRENCY_OUTCOME_MUTATION_OBSERVED:
+            item["mutation_consumed"] = True
+            item["mutation_observed_at"] = _iso(now)
+            item["recovery_state"] = CURRENCY_OUTCOME_MUTATION_OBSERVED
+        elif outcome == CURRENCY_OUTCOME_AMBIGUOUS:
+            item["recovery_state"] = CURRENCY_OUTCOME_AMBIGUOUS
+        elif outcome == CURRENCY_OUTCOME_PROVEN_NO_MUTATION:
+            if item.get("mutation_consumed"):
+                raise SystemExit("cannot record no mutation after mutation start was observed")
+            retries = int(item.get("retry_count", 0))
+            if retries < 1:
+                item["retry_count"] = retries + 1
+                item["disposition"] = DISPOSITION_OPEN
+                item["recovery_state"] = "retry-authorized"
+                item["retry_not_before"] = _iso(
+                    now + timedelta(seconds=CURRENCY_RETRY_BACKOFF_SECONDS))
+                item.pop("claimed_invocation_id", None)
+                item.pop("reconciled_invocation_id", None)
+            else:
+                item["disposition"] = DISPOSITION_OPEN
+                item["recovery_state"] = "retry-exhausted"
+        state["last_action"] = f"{outcome} currency {key}"
+        return item.get("recovery_state") in (
+            CURRENCY_OUTCOME_AMBIGUOUS, "retry-exhausted")
+
+    if inspected_fingerprint:
+        if prior != DISPOSITION_OPEN:
+            raise SystemExit("currency inspection requires an open observation")
+        parks = currency.get("semantic_parks") or {}
+        if not parks:
+            raise SystemExit("currency inspection requires carried semantic conflict evidence")
+        item["inspected_semantic_conflict_fingerprint"] = inspected_fingerprint
+        item["inspected_at"] = _iso(now)
+        if inspected_fingerprint in parks:
+            item["semantic_conflict_fingerprint"] = inspected_fingerprint
+            item["recovery_state"] = "semantic-unchanged"
+            item["inspection_result"] = "unchanged"
+        else:
+            item["inspection_required"] = False
+            item["inspection_result"] = "changed"
+            item["recovery_state"] = "semantic-changed"
+            item.pop("semantic_conflict_fingerprint", None)
+            # The preview describes the current conflict set for this head. Once it differs, the
+            # carried fingerprints are no longer standing residuals and must not tax every later
+            # base generation with inspection of stale evidence.
+            currency["semantic_parks"] = {}
+            item["parked_semantic_fingerprints"] = []
+        state["last_action"] = f"inspected currency {key}"
+        return inspected_fingerprint in parks
+
+    disposition = args.currency_disposition
+    allowed = {
+        DISPOSITION_OPEN: {DISPOSITION_OPEN, CURRENCY_CLAIMED},
+        CURRENCY_CLAIMED: {CURRENCY_CLAIMED, CURRENCY_CONFIRMED},
+        CURRENCY_CONFIRMED: {CURRENCY_CONFIRMED, DISPOSITION_OPEN},
+    }
+    if disposition not in allowed.get(prior, set()):
+        raise SystemExit(f"invalid currency transition: {prior} -> {disposition}")
+    if (prior == DISPOSITION_OPEN and disposition == CURRENCY_CLAIMED
+            and item.get("inspection_required")):
+        raise SystemExit("currency claim requires semantic-fingerprint inspection first")
+    if (prior == DISPOSITION_OPEN and disposition == CURRENCY_CLAIMED
+            and _needs_human_source_is_covered(state, key, "currency")):
+        raise SystemExit("currency claim requires the current human decision to be answered")
+    if (prior == DISPOSITION_OPEN and disposition == CURRENCY_CLAIMED
+            and _currency_mutation_requires_answer(state, key, item)):
+        raise SystemExit("currency claim requires an exact human answer")
+    if prior == DISPOSITION_OPEN and disposition == CURRENCY_CLAIMED:
+        retry_not_before = item.get("retry_not_before")
+        if retry_not_before:
+            try:
+                if _parse_iso8601(retry_not_before) > now:
+                    raise SystemExit("currency retry backoff has not elapsed")
+            except (ValueError, TypeError):
+                raise SystemExit("currency retry backoff is invalid")
+        budget = state.get("invocation_budget_seconds")
+        backstop = state.get("invocation_backstop_seconds")
+        if ((budget is not None and _active_elapsed(state, now) >= budget)
+                or (backstop is not None and _elapsed(state.get("started_at"), now) >= backstop)):
+            raise SystemExit("currency claim cannot start after max-runtime")
+    item["disposition"] = disposition
+    item["transitioned_at"] = _iso(now)
+    if disposition == CURRENCY_CLAIMED:
+        # A repeated claim is deliberately idempotent. It cannot transfer or renew an existing
+        # claim; a later invocation must reconcile it and record an explicit outcome.
+        if prior == DISPOSITION_OPEN:
+            item["mutation_requires_answer"] = False
+            item["claimed_invocation_id"] = state.get("invocation_id")
+            item["claimed_at"] = _iso(now)
+            item["attempt_number"] = int(item.get("retry_count", 0)) + 1
+            item["mutation_consumed"] = False
+            item["recovery_state"] = "claimed"
+            item.pop("reconciled_invocation_id", None)
+    elif disposition == CURRENCY_CONFIRMED:
+        item["confirmed_invocation_id"] = state.get("invocation_id")
+    elif disposition == DISPOSITION_OPEN:
+        _reactivate_currency_item(currency, item)
+    else:
+        item["parked_semantic_fingerprints"] = sorted(currency.get("semantic_parks") or {})
+    state["last_action"] = f"{disposition} currency {key}"
+    return False
+
+
+def _load_needs_human_residual(path, item_id=None, expected_kind=None):
+    if not path:
+        raise SystemExit("needs-human marks require --residual-file")
+    try:
+        with open(path, encoding="utf-8") as f:
+            residual = json.load(f)
+    except (OSError, json.JSONDecodeError) as exc:
+        raise SystemExit(f"cannot read --residual-file: {exc}")
+    error = _needs_human_residual_error(residual)
+    if error:
+        raise SystemExit(f"invalid --residual-file: {error}")
+    if item_id is not None and not any(
+            source["id"] == item_id and source["kind"] == expected_kind
+            for source in residual["sources"]):
+        raise SystemExit("--residual-file sources must include the marked item ID and kind")
+    return residual
+
+
+def _load_human_answer(path):
+    if not path:
+        raise SystemExit("--answer-decision requires --answer-file")
+    try:
+        with open(path, encoding="utf-8") as f:
+            answer = f.read().strip()
+    except OSError as exc:
+        raise SystemExit(f"cannot read --answer-file: {exc}")
+    if not answer:
+        raise SystemExit("--answer-file must contain the human's answer")
+    return answer
+
+
+def _park_human_decision(state, residual, args, now):
+    """Freeze one complete decision over ordinary source observations, then publish it."""
+    threads = state.get("threads", {})
+    feedback = state.get("feedback", {})
+    checks = state.get("checks", {})
+    decisions = state.setdefault("human_decisions", [])
+    existing = next((
+        decision for decision in decisions
+        if isinstance(decision, dict)
+        and _residual_identity(decision.get("residual")) == _residual_identity(residual)
+    ), None)
+    if existing is not None:
+        _install_human_decisions(state, decisions)
+        return existing
+    covered = {
+        (source.get("kind"), source.get("id"))
+        for decision in decisions if isinstance(decision, dict)
+        for source in decision.get("sources") or [] if isinstance(source, dict)
+    }
+    overlap = covered.intersection(_source_identity(source) for source in residual["sources"])
+    if overlap:
+        raise SystemExit("needs-human source already belongs to another current decision")
+
+    for source in residual["sources"]:
+        kind, source_id = _source_identity(source)
+        if not _source_can_enter_human_decision(
+                state, kind, source_id, threads, feedback, checks):
+            raise SystemExit(f"needs-human source is not current decision evidence: {kind} {source_id}")
+        if kind == "currency" and args.semantic_conflict_fingerprint:
+            currency = _load_branch_currency_state(state)
+            item = currency["items"][source_id]
+            fingerprint = args.semantic_conflict_fingerprint
+            item["semantic_conflict_fingerprint"] = fingerprint
+            currency.setdefault("semantic_parks", {})[fingerprint] = {
+                "head_sha": item.get("head_sha"),
+                "status": item.get("status"),
+                "route": item.get("route"),
+                "observation_key": source_id,
+            }
+
+    thread_ids = [
+        source["id"] for source in residual["sources"] if source["kind"] == "thread"]
+    thread_records = _mark_thread_records(thread_ids, args, state)
+    thread_baselines = {
+        thread_id: [thread.get("last_comment_id"), thread.get("last_comment_at")]
+        for thread_id, thread in thread_records.items()
+    }
+    missing_thread_baselines = sorted(set(thread_ids) - set(thread_baselines))
+    if missing_thread_baselines:
+        raise SystemExit(
+            "cannot freeze the post-reply thread observation: "
+            + ", ".join(missing_thread_baselines))
+    authoritative_thread_urls = {
+        thread_id: thread.get("url") for thread_id, thread in thread_records.items()
+    }
+    if (any(not isinstance(url, str) or not url.strip()
+            for url in authoritative_thread_urls.values())
+            or set(residual["thread_urls"]) != set(authoritative_thread_urls.values())):
+        raise SystemExit("thread_urls must match the authoritative URL of every thread source")
+    sources = []
+    for source in residual["sources"]:
+        kind, source_id = _source_identity(source)
+        if kind == "thread":
+            observation = thread_baselines[source_id]
+        elif kind in ("comment", "review"):
+            observation = _current_source_observation(
+                state, kind, source_id, threads, feedback, checks)
+            if args.comment == source_id and args.acted_edit_id:
+                observation = [args.acted_edit_id]
+        else:
+            observation = _current_source_observation(
+                state, kind, source_id, threads, feedback, checks)
+        if observation is None:
+            raise SystemExit(f"cannot freeze needs-human observation: {kind} {source_id}")
+        sources.append({"kind": kind, "id": source_id, "observation": observation})
+
+    if any(
+            _answered_human_source_matches(
+                state, source["kind"], source["id"], source["observation"])
+            for source in sources):
+        raise SystemExit("source observations already have a recorded human answer")
+    _release_ordinary_suppression_for_decision(state, sources, threads, feedback)
+    decision = _decision_record(residual, sources, _iso(now))
+    if any(item.get("id") == decision["id"] for item in decisions if isinstance(item, dict)):
+        return decision
+    decisions.append(decision)
+    _install_human_decisions(state, decisions)
+    return decision
+
+
+def _invalidate_human_source(state, item_id, kind):
+    kept = [
+        decision for decision in state.get("human_decisions") or []
+        if not any(source.get("id") == item_id and source.get("kind") == kind
+                   for source in decision.get("sources") or [] if isinstance(source, dict))
+    ]
+    _replace_human_decisions(state, kept)
+
+
+def _needs_human_source_is_covered(state, item_id, kind):
+    return any(
+        source.get("id") == item_id and source.get("kind") == kind
+        for decision in state.get("human_decisions") or []
+        if isinstance(decision, dict)
+        for source in decision.get("sources") or []
+        if isinstance(source, dict)
+    )
+
+
+def _answer_human_decision(state, decision_id, answer_file, now):
+    answer = _load_human_answer(answer_file)
+    current = next((
+        decision for decision in state.get("human_decisions") or []
+        if isinstance(decision, dict) and decision.get("id") == decision_id
+    ), None)
+    if current is None:
+        existing = next((
+            decision for decision in state.get("answered_human_decisions") or []
+            if isinstance(decision, dict) and decision.get("id") == decision_id
+        ), None)
+        if existing and existing.get("answer") == answer:
+            return existing
+        raise SystemExit("--answer-decision must name an exact current decision ID")
+    kept = [
+        decision for decision in state.get("human_decisions") or []
+        if not isinstance(decision, dict) or decision.get("id") != decision_id
+    ]
+    _replace_human_decisions(state, kept)
+    answered = {**json.loads(json.dumps(current)), "answer": answer, "answered_at": _iso(now)}
+    state.setdefault("answered_human_decisions", []).append(answered)
+    state["last_action"] = f"answered human decision {decision_id}"
+    return answered
+
+
+def cmd_mark(args):
+    now = _now()
+    marked = None
+    with locked_state(args.state_dir, args.pr, args.repo, now) as box:
+        _apply_invocation(box, args, now)
+        if (args.check or args.thread or args.comment) and args.residual_file \
+                and args.disposition != DISPOSITION_NEEDS_HUMAN:
+            raise SystemExit("--residual-file requires --disposition needs-human for source marks")
+        if (args.disposition == DISPOSITION_NEEDS_HUMAN and not args.residual_file
+                and not (args.check or args.thread or args.comment)):
+            raise SystemExit("needs-human marks require --residual-file")
+        state = box["state"]
+        # An agent-driven mark is activity: bump the heartbeat (no accumulation) so a long tick
+        # that only marks — never snapshots — still never has its active time refunded as dead time.
+        if state.get("started_at"):
+            _advance_activity(state, now, accumulate=False)
+        if args.answer_decision or args.answer_file:
+            if not args.answer_decision or not args.answer_file:
+                raise SystemExit("answer marks require --answer-decision and --answer-file")
+            if any((
+                    args.check,
+                    args.thread,
+                    args.comment,
+                    args.residual_file,
+                    args.acted_edit_id,
+                    args.currency_key,
+                    args.currency_disposition,
+                    args.semantic_conflict_fingerprint,
+                    args.currency_outcome,
+                    args.currency_inspected_fingerprint,
+                    args.disposition != DISPOSITION_DISPATCHED,
+            )):
+                raise SystemExit("answer marks cannot be combined with source actions")
+            marked = _answer_human_decision(
+                state, args.answer_decision, args.answer_file, now)
+        elif (args.currency_key or args.currency_disposition or args.currency_outcome
+                or args.currency_inspected_fingerprint):
+            actions = sum(bool(value) for value in (
+                args.currency_disposition, args.currency_outcome,
+                args.currency_inspected_fingerprint))
+            if not args.currency_key or actions != 1:
+                raise SystemExit("currency marks require --currency-key and exactly one currency action")
+            decision_required = _mark_branch_currency(args, state, now)
+            if decision_required:
+                residual = _load_needs_human_residual(
+                    args.residual_file, args.currency_key, "currency")
+                marked = _park_human_decision(state, residual, args, now)
+            elif args.residual_file:
+                raise SystemExit(
+                    "--residual-file requires a currency outcome that needs a human decision")
+            if args.currency_disposition == DISPOSITION_OPEN:
+                _invalidate_human_source(state, args.currency_key, "currency")
+            marked = marked or args.currency_key
+        elif args.residual_file and not (args.check or args.thread or args.comment):
+            if args.disposition != DISPOSITION_NEEDS_HUMAN:
+                raise SystemExit("a residual-only mark requires --disposition needs-human")
+            residual = _load_needs_human_residual(args.residual_file)
+            marked = _park_human_decision(state, residual, args, now)
+            state["last_action"] = "needs-human residual"
+        elif args.check:
+            head = state.get("head_sha")
+            if not head:
+                raise SystemExit("mark --check requires a prior snapshot (state has no head_sha)")
+            state.setdefault("ci_dispatched", {}).setdefault(head, [])
+            if args.disposition == DISPOSITION_OPEN:
+                _invalidate_human_source(state, args.check, "check")
+                state["ci_dispatched"][head] = [
+                    key for key in state["ci_dispatched"][head] if key != args.check]
+            elif args.disposition == DISPOSITION_NEEDS_HUMAN:
+                residual = _load_needs_human_residual(
+                    args.residual_file, args.check, "check")
+                marked = _park_human_decision(state, residual, args, now)
+            else:
+                if _needs_human_source_is_covered(state, args.check, "check"):
+                    raise SystemExit(
+                        "cannot dispatch a source covered by a current human decision")
+                if args.check not in state["ci_dispatched"][head]:
+                    state["ci_dispatched"][head].append(args.check)
+            state["last_action"] = f"{args.disposition} check {args.check}"
+            marked = marked or args.check
+        elif args.thread or args.comment:
+            item_id = args.thread or args.comment
+            collection, id_field, label = (
+                ("threads", "thread_id", "thread") if args.thread else ("feedback", "id", "comment"))
+            entry = state.setdefault(collection, {}).setdefault(item_id, {id_field: item_id})
+            kind = "thread" if args.thread else entry.get("kind", "comment")
+            if args.disposition == DISPOSITION_OPEN:
+                entry["disposition"] = DISPOSITION_OPEN
+                _invalidate_human_source(state, item_id, kind)
+                entry.pop("acted_identity", None)   # reopened -> next dispatch/park re-baselines
+            elif args.disposition == DISPOSITION_NEEDS_HUMAN:
+                residual = _load_needs_human_residual(
+                    args.residual_file, item_id, kind)
+                marked = _park_human_decision(state, residual, args, now)
+            else:
+                if _needs_human_source_is_covered(state, item_id, kind):
+                    raise SystemExit(
+                        "cannot dispatch a source covered by a current human decision")
+                entry["disposition"] = DISPOSITION_DISPATCHED
+                if args.thread:
+                    # our reply moved the thread's last comment, so re-read it now as the baseline.
+                    ident = _mark_thread_baseline(item_id, args, state)
+                    if ident is not None:
+                        entry["acted_identity"] = ident
+                elif args.comment and args.acted_edit_id:
+                    entry["acted_identity"] = [args.acted_edit_id]
+            state["last_action"] = f"{args.disposition} {label} {item_id}"
+            marked = marked or item_id
+        if getattr(args, "invariant_key", None) and args.disposition == DISPOSITION_DISPATCHED:
+            _record_invariant_round(state, args.invariant_key, state.get("head_sha"))
+    if isinstance(marked, dict):
+        print(json.dumps({"marked": marked.get("id"), "decision": marked}, separators=(",", ":")))
+    else:
+        print(json.dumps({"marked": marked}))
+
+
+WATCH_BOOTSTRAP_FLAGS = ("--state-dir", "--invocation-id", "--session-started-at",
+                         "--invocation-budget-seconds")
+WATCH_BOOTSTRAP_HINT = """\
+watch cannot start a babysit run: it only arms the change detector for an
+invocation that was already bootstrapped by a snapshot --start-invocation run
+(the ce-babysit-pr Step 2 bootstrap).
+To recover, invoke the ce-babysit-pr skill through your harness's callable
+skill mechanism with this PR: its instructions own the bootstrap, arming,
+marks, and stop protocol. Do not drive pr-snapshot directly outside that skill.
+Never mint the bootstrap values yourself; they come from the skill's
+bootstrap snapshot."""
+
+
+class _WatchHintingParser(argparse.ArgumentParser):
+    # A bare `watch --pr N` is the observed illegal start path (an agent arming the
+    # detector without the Step 2 bootstrap). Keep the fail-closed exit 2, but make
+    # the refusal carry its own recovery path instead of a raw usage dump.
+    def error(self, message):
+        if (self.prog.endswith(" watch") and "required" in message
+                and any(flag in message for flag in WATCH_BOOTSTRAP_FLAGS)):
+            self.print_usage(sys.stderr)
+            self.exit(2, f"{self.prog}: error: {message}\n\n{WATCH_BOOTSTRAP_HINT}\n")
+        super().error(message)
+
+
+def main():
+    p = argparse.ArgumentParser(prog="pr-snapshot")
+    sub = p.add_subparsers(dest="cmd", required=True, parser_class=_WatchHintingParser)
+
+    s = sub.add_parser("snapshot")
+    s.add_argument("--pr", type=int, required=True)
+    s.add_argument("--repo", default=None)
+    s.add_argument("--state-dir", required=True)
+    s.add_argument("--fetch-file", default=None)
+    sg = s.add_mutually_exclusive_group()
+    sg.add_argument("--start-invocation", action="store_true",
+                    help="mint one new fixed budget (first snapshot only)")
+    sg.add_argument("--reset-session", action="store_true",
+                    help=argparse.SUPPRESS)  # deprecated alias for --start-invocation
+    sg.add_argument("--continue-invocation", action="store_true",
+                    help="carry the current fixed budget into a managed-stack layer state dir")
+    s.add_argument("--invocation-id", default=None,
+                   help="token emitted by the first snapshot; required on every resume")
+    s.add_argument("--session-started-at", type=_session_started_at,
+                   help="fixed anchor emitted by the first snapshot; required for a new state dir")
+    s.add_argument("--invocation-budget-seconds", type=float,
+                   help=f"fixed total budget; first snapshot default {DEFAULT_INVOCATION_BUDGET_SECONDS}")
+    s.add_argument("--continue-dead-time-seconds", type=float, default=None,
+                   help="carry the prior layer's accumulated dead time into a managed-stack layer "
+                        "(with --continue-invocation), so the shared active-time budget stays correct")
+    s.set_defaults(func=cmd_snapshot)
+
+    m = sub.add_parser("mark")
+    m.add_argument("--pr", type=int, default=0)
+    m.add_argument("--repo", default=None)
+    m.add_argument("--state-dir", required=True)
+    m.add_argument("--invocation-id", required=True,
+                   help="token emitted by the invocation's first snapshot")
+    m.add_argument("--session-started-at", type=_session_started_at, required=True,
+                   help="fixed anchor emitted by the invocation's first snapshot")
+    m.add_argument("--invocation-budget-seconds", type=float, required=True,
+                   help="fixed budget emitted by the invocation's first snapshot")
+    m.add_argument("--thread", default=None)
+    # `open` cancels a covering decision and returns the source to ordinary actionable state.
+    m.add_argument("--disposition", choices=[DISPOSITION_NEEDS_HUMAN, DISPOSITION_DISPATCHED, DISPOSITION_OPEN], default=DISPOSITION_DISPATCHED)
+    m.add_argument("--check", default=None)
+    m.add_argument("--comment", default=None)
+    m.add_argument("--fetch-file", default=None)  # reuse the tick's fetch for the at-mark baseline
+    m.add_argument("--acted-edit-id", default=None)  # snapshot-time identity for a covered comment
+    m.add_argument("--residual-file", default=None)
+    m.add_argument("--currency-key", default=None,
+                   help="exact branch-currency observation key emitted by snapshot")
+    m.add_argument("--currency-disposition",
+                   choices=[DISPOSITION_OPEN, CURRENCY_CLAIMED, CURRENCY_CONFIRMED],
+                   default=None)
+    m.add_argument("--semantic-conflict-fingerprint", default=None,
+                   help="semantic conflict identity preserved with a currency decision")
+    m.add_argument("--currency-outcome",
+                   choices=[CURRENCY_OUTCOME_MUTATION_OBSERVED,
+                            CURRENCY_OUTCOME_PROVEN_NO_MUTATION,
+                            CURRENCY_OUTCOME_AMBIGUOUS], default=None)
+    m.add_argument("--currency-inspected-fingerprint", default=None)
+    m.add_argument("--answer-decision", default=None,
+                   help="exact current decision ID whose human answer is being recorded")
+    m.add_argument("--answer-file", default=None,
+                   help="file containing the human answer to preserve until covered work moves")
+    m.add_argument("--invariant-key", default=None,
+                   help="resolver-supplied review invariant; counted per unique head, never inferred")
+    m.set_defaults(func=cmd_mark)
+
+    w = sub.add_parser("watch")
+    w.add_argument("--pr", type=int, required=True)
+    w.add_argument("--repo", default=None)
+    w.add_argument("--state-dir", required=True)
+    w.add_argument("--interval", type=float, default=150.0, help="poll cadence seconds")
+    w.add_argument("--downstack-pr", type=int, action="append", default=[],
+                   help="lower managed-stack layer to keep probing; a new thread/comment/failing check/head there wakes downstack-actionable")
+    w.add_argument("--downstack-fetch-file", action="append", default=[], help="N=path fixture for --downstack-pr N (tests)")
+    w.add_argument("--settle-seconds", type=float, default=DEFAULT_SETTLE_SECONDS,
+                   help="quiet window before a merge-ready wake")
+    w.add_argument("--feedback-coalesce-seconds", type=float, default=FEEDBACK_COALESCE_SECONDS,
+                   help="quiet window before a comment-only wake, so a burst costs one dispatch")
+    w.add_argument("--blocked-external-drain-seconds", type=float, default=None,
+                   help="head-scoped review-quiet bound before a gated-CI handback")
+    w.add_argument("--stop-file", default=None, help="path whose existence stops the watch")
+    w.add_argument("--fetch-file", default=None)
+    w.add_argument("--invocation-id", required=True,
+                   help="token emitted by the invocation's first snapshot")
+    w.add_argument("--session-started-at", type=_session_started_at, required=True,
+                   help="fixed anchor emitted by the first snapshot")
+    w.add_argument("--invocation-budget-seconds", type=float, required=True,
+                   help="fixed budget emitted by the invocation's first snapshot")
+    w.set_defaults(func=cmd_watch)
+
+    args = p.parse_args()
+    if (args.cmd in ("snapshot", "watch")
+            and args.invocation_budget_seconds is not None
+            and args.invocation_budget_seconds <= 0):
+        p.error("--invocation-budget-seconds must be positive")
+    if (args.cmd == "watch" and args.blocked_external_drain_seconds is not None
+            and args.blocked_external_drain_seconds <= 0):
+        p.error("--blocked-external-drain-seconds must be positive")
+    if args.cmd == "snapshot":
+        starting = args.start_invocation or args.reset_session
+        continuing = args.continue_invocation
+        if starting and (args.invocation_id or args.session_started_at):
+            p.error("the first snapshot cannot combine --start-invocation with resume fields")
+        if continuing and not (args.invocation_id and args.session_started_at
+                               and args.invocation_budget_seconds):
+            p.error("--continue-invocation requires --invocation-id, --session-started-at, and --invocation-budget-seconds")
+        if not starting and not continuing and not (args.invocation_id and args.session_started_at
+                                                     and args.invocation_budget_seconds):
+            p.error("snapshot requires --start-invocation or --invocation-id")
+    args.func(args)
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()