dexbot 1.1.10

package/dist/analysis/analyze_regime_windows.js

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+#!/usr/bin/env node
+/**
+ * REGIME WINDOW OPTIMIZER
+ *
+ * Grid-searches optimal Hurst and Permutation Entropy window sizes to maximize
+ * regime quality — a composite score of stability, directional accuracy, and
+ * information content.
+ *
+ * Scoring:
+ *   - regimeStability: mean duration (bars) before regime switches
+ *   - entropyDefect: penalty for being stuck in the "random" band (H 0.45–0.55)
+ *
+ * Usage:
+ *   tsx analysis/analyze_regime_windows.ts \
+ *     --source json \
+ *     --file market_adapter/data/lp/<path>/<to>/<lp-candles>.json
+ */
+'use strict';
+Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
+const path = require('path');
+const { PATHS } = require('../modules/paths');
+const { HurstAnalyzer } = require('./trend_detection/hurst_analyzer');
+const { PermutationEntropyAnalyzer } = require('./trend_detection/permutation_entropy_analyzer');
+const { MARKET_ADAPTER } = require('../modules/constants');
+const HURST_CONFIG = MARKET_ADAPTER.HURST_CONFIG;
+const PE_CONFIG = MARKET_ADAPTER.PE_CONFIG;
+const { createSource } = require('./price_sources');
+const { writeChartFile } = require('./chart_utils');
+const { getCandleClose } = require('./math_utils');
+const { roundTo } = require('../modules/utils/math_utils');
+const HURST_CENTER = HURST_CONFIG.window;
+const PE_CENTER = PE_CONFIG.window;
+const RANGE_FACTOR = 2;
+const N_POINTS = 20;
+function geoRange(center, factor, n) {
+    const lo = center / factor;
+    const hi = center * factor;
+    const r = Math.pow(hi / lo, 1 / (n - 1));
+    const vals = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++)
+        vals.push(lo * Math.pow(r, i));
+    return vals;
+}
+const HURST_WINDOWS = geoRange(HURST_CENTER, RANGE_FACTOR, N_POINTS);
+const PE_WINDOWS = geoRange(PE_CENTER, RANGE_FACTOR, N_POINTS);
+const HURST_SCALES = [8, 16, 32, 64];
+const PE_M = 5;
+const PE_DELAY = 1;
+function parseArgs() {
+    const args = process.argv.slice(2);
+    const config = {
+        source: { type: 'market_adapter', config: { botKey: 'XRP-BTS' } },
+        chartFile: 'analysis/charts/regime_windows_heatmap.html',
+        quiet: false,
+    };
+    for (let i = 0; i < args.length; i++) {
+        const arg = args[i];
+        if (arg === '--source')
+            config.source.type = args[++i];
+        else if (arg === '--bot-key')
+            config.source.config.botKey = args[++i];
+        else if (arg === '--file') {
+            config.source.config.filePath = args[++i];
+            config.source.type = 'json';
+        }
+        else if (arg === '--chart')
+            config.chartFile = args[++i];
+        else if (arg === '--quiet')
+            config.quiet = true;
+    }
+    return config;
+}
+const H_UPPER = 0.5 + MARKET_ADAPTER.HURST_ZONE_BAND;
+const H_LOWER = 0.5 - MARKET_ADAPTER.HURST_ZONE_BAND;
+function regimeBand(H) {
+    if (H > H_UPPER)
+        return 'TRENDING';
+    if (H < H_LOWER)
+        return 'MEAN_REVERTING';
+    return 'RANDOM';
+}
+function rankNormalize(arr) {
+    const sorted = arr.slice().sort((a, b) => a - b);
+    return arr.map(v => {
+        const idx = sorted.findIndex(x => x === v);
+        return idx / (sorted.length - 1);
+    });
+}
+function scoreWindowPair(prices, hurstWindow, peWindow) {
+    const n = prices.length;
+    const hurstAnalyzer = new HurstAnalyzer({ window: hurstWindow, scales: HURST_SCALES });
+    const peAnalyzer = new PermutationEntropyAnalyzer({ m: PE_M, delay: PE_DELAY, window: peWindow });
+    const hArr = [];
+    const pArr = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+        const h = hurstAnalyzer.update(prices[i]);
+        const p = peAnalyzer.update(prices[i]);
+        hArr.push(h.isReady ? h.hurst : null);
+        pArr.push(p.isReady ? p.normalizedEntropy : null);
+    }
+    const firstReady = hArr.findIndex(v => v !== null);
+    if (firstReady < 0)
+        return null;
+    const readyH = hArr.slice(firstReady);
+    const readyP = pArr.slice(firstReady);
+    const readyPrices = prices.slice(firstReady);
+    const m = readyH.length;
+    if (m < 50)
+        return null;
+    // ── Regime sequences ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    const hBands = readyH.map(regimeBand);
+    const pBands = readyP.map(v => v < 0.60 ? 'STRUCTURED' : v > 0.85 ? 'NOISE' : 'MIXED');
+    const combined = hBands.map((h, i) => `${h}|${pBands[i]}`);
+    // ── Stability: mean run-length of combined regime ───────────────────
+    let stabilitySum = 0, stabilityCount = 0;
+    let runLen = 1;
+    for (let i = 1; i < combined.length; i++) {
+        if (combined[i] === combined[i - 1]) {
+            runLen++;
+        }
+        else {
+            stabilitySum += runLen;
+            stabilityCount++;
+            runLen = 1;
+        }
+    }
+    stabilitySum += runLen;
+    stabilityCount++;
+    const meanStability = stabilitySum / stabilityCount;
+    // ── Entropy defect: how often stuck in random band ───────────────────
+    const randomCount = hBands.filter(b => b === 'RANDOM').length;
+    const entropyDefect = randomCount / m;
+    // ── Structured fraction: how often PE is structured ───────────────────
+    const structuredCount = pBands.filter(b => b === 'STRUCTURED').length;
+    const structuredFrac = structuredCount / m;
+    // ── Lag score: inverse window size — smaller windows respond faster ─────
+    const minH = HURST_WINDOWS[0];
+    const minP = PE_WINDOWS[0];
+    const lagScore = 0.5 * (minH / hurstWindow) + 0.5 * (minP / peWindow);
+    return {
+        hurstWindow,
+        peWindow,
+        meanStability,
+        entropyDefect,
+        structuredFrac,
+        lagScore,
+        _stabilityRaw: meanStability,
+        _entropyRaw: 1 - entropyDefect,
+        _structuredRaw: structuredFrac,
+        _lagRaw: lagScore,
+        n: m,
+    };
+}
+function computeComposite(allResults) {
+    const n = allResults.length;
+    if (n === 0)
+        return allResults;
+    const stabilityVals = allResults.map(r => r._stabilityRaw);
+    const entropyVals = allResults.map(r => r._entropyRaw);
+    const structuredVals = allResults.map(r => r._structuredRaw);
+    const lagVals = allResults.map(r => r._lagRaw);
+    const [rnStability, rnEntropy, rnStructured, rnLag] = [stabilityVals, entropyVals, structuredVals, lagVals].map(rankNormalize);
+    // Weights: lag=30%, stability=30%, entropy=25%, structured=15%
+    const W = { lag: 0.30, stability: 0.30, entropy: 0.25, structured: 0.15 };
+    return allResults.map((r, i) => {
+        const composite = W.lag * rnLag[i] +
+            W.stability * rnStability[i] +
+            W.entropy * rnEntropy[i] +
+            W.structured * rnStructured[i];
+        return {
+            ...r,
+            stabilityScore: roundTo(rnStability[i], 1000),
+            entropyScore: roundTo(rnEntropy[i], 1000),
+            structuredScore: roundTo(rnStructured[i], 1000),
+            lagScore: roundTo(rnLag[i], 1000),
+            composite: roundTo(composite, 1000),
+        };
+    });
+}
+function generateHeatmapHTML(results, hurstVals, peVals) {
+    const maxComposite = Math.max(...results.map(r => r.composite));
+    const minComposite = Math.min(...results.map(r => r.composite));
+    const range = maxComposite - minComposite || 1;
+    const grid = {};
+    results.forEach(r => { grid[`${r.hurstWindow},${r.peWindow}`] = r; });
+    const defaultH = HURST_CENTER;
+    const defaultP = PE_CENTER;
+    const geoRatio = Math.pow(RANGE_FACTOR, 1 / (N_POINTS - 1));
+    const epsH = Math.abs(HURST_WINDOWS[HURST_WINDOWS.length - 1] - HURST_WINDOWS[0]) / (N_POINTS - 1) * 0.6;
+    const epsP = Math.abs(PE_WINDOWS[PE_WINDOWS.length - 1] - PE_WINDOWS[0]) / (N_POINTS - 1) * 0.6;
+    const best = results.reduce((a, b) => a.composite > b.composite ? a : b);
+    const top10 = results.slice().sort((a, b) => b.composite - a.composite).slice(0, 10);
+    const currentResult = results.find(r => Math.abs(r.hurstWindow - defaultH) < epsH && Math.abs(r.peWindow - defaultP) < epsP);
+    function cell(r, h, p) {
+        if (!r)
+            return '<td class="empty"></td>';
+        const norm = (r.composite - minComposite) / range; // 0 = worst, 1 = best
+        // Color ramp: red (worst) → orange → yellow → green (best)
+        // norm 0.0 → rgb(248,81,73)   red
+        // norm 0.5 → rgb(240,140,0)   orange
+        // norm 1.0 → rgb(46,160,67)   green
+        const rr = norm < 0.5
+            ? Math.round(248 - (248 - 240) * norm * 2)
+            : Math.round(240 - (240 - 46) * (norm - 0.5) * 2);
+        const rg = norm < 0.5
+            ? Math.round(81 + (140 - 81) * norm * 2)
+            : Math.round(140 + (160 - 140) * (norm - 0.5) * 2);
+        const rb = norm < 0.5
+            ? Math.round(73 + (0 - 73) * norm * 2)
+            : Math.round(0 + (67 - 0) * (norm - 0.5) * 2);
+        const bg = `rgb(${rr},${rg},${rb})`;
+        const isCenter = Math.abs(h - defaultH) < epsH && Math.abs(p - defaultP) < epsP;
+        const isBest = r === best;
+        let border = isBest ? '2px solid #fff' : isCenter ? '2px solid #58a6ff' : '1px solid #1c2128';
+        return `<td class="cell" style="background:${bg};${border}"
+            title="H=${Math.round(h)} PE=${Math.round(p)}
+composite=${r.composite} (${(norm * 100).toFixed(1)}% of range)
+stability=${r.meanStability.toFixed(1)}b  lag=${r.lagScore.toFixed(3)}
+noise=${(r.entropyDefect * 100).toFixed(1)}%">
+            <span class="val" style="color:${norm > 0.7 ? '#fff' : norm > 0.35 ? '#0b0e14' : 'rgba(255,255,255,0.75)'}">${r.composite.toFixed(3)}</span>
+        </td>`;
+    }
+    // PE on Y axis (rows), Hurst on X axis (columns)
+    const colHeaders = hurstVals.map(h => `<th>${Math.round(h)}</th>`).join('');
+    const rows = peVals.map(p => `<tr><td class="row-label">${Math.round(p)}</td>${hurstVals.map(h => cell(grid[`${h},${p}`], h, p)).join('')}</tr>`).join('\n');
+    const top10Bars = top10.map((r, i) => {
+        const isCenter = Math.abs(r.hurstWindow - defaultH) < epsH && Math.abs(r.peWindow - defaultP) < epsP;
+        const isBest = r === best;
+        const barNorm = (r.composite - minComposite) / range;
+        const rr = barNorm < 0.5
+            ? Math.round(248 - (248 - 240) * barNorm * 2)
+            : Math.round(240 - (240 - 46) * (barNorm - 0.5) * 2);
+        const rg = barNorm < 0.5
+            ? Math.round(81 + (140 - 81) * barNorm * 2)
+            : Math.round(140 + (160 - 140) * (barNorm - 0.5) * 2);
+        const rb = barNorm < 0.5
+            ? Math.round(73 + (0 - 73) * barNorm * 2)
+            : Math.round(0 + (67 - 0) * (barNorm - 0.5) * 2);
+        const barColor = `rgb(${rr},${rg},${rb})`;
+        return `<div class="bar-row" title="H=${Math.round(r.hurstWindow)} PE=${Math.round(r.peWindow)}  stability=${r.meanStability.toFixed(1)}b  lag=${r.lagScore.toFixed(3)}">
+            <span class="bar-label" style="color:${isBest ? '#3fb950' : isCenter ? '#58a6ff' : '#8b949e'}">#${i + 1}  H=${Math.round(r.hurstWindow)} PE=${Math.round(r.peWindow)}</span>
+            <div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:${(barNorm * 100).toFixed(1)}%;background:${barColor}"></div></div>
+            <span class="bar-score" style="color:${barColor}">${r.composite.toFixed(3)}</span>
+            <span class="bar-meta">${r.meanStability.toFixed(1)}b  lag=${r.lagScore.toFixed(2)}  ${(r.entropyDefect * 100).toFixed(0)}%noise</span>
+        </div>`;
+    }).join('\n');
+    return `<!DOCTYPE html>
+<html lang="en">
+<head>
+    <meta charset="UTF-8">
+    <title>Regime Window Optimization</title>
+    <style>
+        * { box-sizing: border-box; }
+        body { background: #0b0e14; color: #d1d5db; font-family: 'Segoe UI', sans-serif; margin: 0; padding: 20px; }
+        h1 { color: #fff; font-size: 16px; margin: 0 0 4px 0; }
+        .subtitle { color: #8b949e; font-size: 11px; margin: 0 0 12px 0; }
+        .topline { display: flex; gap: 32px; margin-bottom: 14px; font-size: 12px; }
+        .topline span { color: #8b949e; }
+        .topline .highlight { color: #3fb950; font-weight: bold; }
+        .topline .current { color: #58a6ff; }
+        .layout { display: flex; gap: 24px; align-items: flex-start; flex-wrap: wrap; }
+        .col-label { font-size: 11px; color: #8b949e; margin-bottom: 4px; }
+        table { border-collapse: collapse; }
+        th, td { padding: 0; text-align: center; }
+        th { color: #8b949e; font-size: 10px; font-weight: normal; height: 20px; line-height: 20px; }
+        td.cell { width: 36px; height: 26px; cursor: default; }
+        td.cell .val { display: block; font-size: 9px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; }
+        td.row-label { color: #8b949e; font-size: 10px; text-align: right; padding-right: 8px; width: 40px; }
+        td.empty { background: #161b22; }
+        .legend { display: flex; gap: 10px; align-items: center; font-size: 10px; color: #8b949e; margin-top: 8px; }
+        .legend-bar { width: 100px; height: 6px; border-radius: 2px; background: linear-gradient(to right, #f85149, #f08c00, #3fb950); }
+        .section-title { color: #8b949e; font-size: 10px; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0 0 10px 0; border-bottom: 1px solid #30363d; padding-bottom: 4px; }
+        .top10-chart { display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: 6px; min-width: 380px; }
+        .bar-row { display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 10px; }
+        .bar-label { font-size: 10px; color: #8b949e; min-width: 100px; text-align: right; font-family: monospace; }
+        .bar-track { flex: 1; height: 18px; background: #161b22; border-radius: 2px; overflow: hidden; }
+        .bar-fill { height: 100%; border-radius: 2px; transition: width 0.3s ease; }
+        .bar-score { font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; min-width: 44px; text-align: right; font-family: monospace; }
+        .bar-meta { font-size: 9px; color: #555; min-width: 140px; }
+        .bottom-row { display: flex; gap: 32px; align-items: flex-start; flex-wrap: wrap; margin-top: 24px; }
+        .score-breakdown { display: grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(4, 1fr); gap: 12px; }
+        .score-card { background: #161b22; border: 1px solid #30363d; border-radius: 6px; padding: 10px 14px; }
+        .score-card h3 { color: #8b949e; font-size: 9px; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 1px; margin: 0 0 4px 0; font-weight: normal; }
+        .score-card .value { font-size: 18px; font-weight: bold; color: #3fb950; }
+        .score-card .desc { font-size: 10px; color: #8b949e; margin-top: 2px; }
+        .params-table { font-size: 11px; color: #8b949e; }
+        .params-table td { padding: 3px 0; }
+        .params-table td:first-child { color: #555; padding-right: 16px; }
+    </style>
+</head>
+<body>
+    <h1>Regime Window Optimization</h1>
+    <p class="subtitle">
+        Composite = 0.30×lag + 0.30×stability + 0.25×entropy + 0.15×structured
+        &nbsp;&middot;&nbsp; ${hurstVals.length}×${peVals.length} grid (${hurstVals.length * peVals.length} combos)
+        &nbsp;&middot;&nbsp; ${results[0]?.n ?? 0} usable bars
+    </p>
+
+    <div class="topline">
+        <span>Best: <span class="highlight">H=${Math.round(best.hurstWindow)} PE=${Math.round(best.peWindow)}</span> score=${best.composite}</span>
+        <span>Current: <span class="current">H=${defaultH} PE=${defaultP}</span> score=${currentResult ? currentResult.composite : '—'}</span>
+        <span>Ratio: <span class="highlight">${(best.composite / (currentResult?.composite || 1)).toFixed(3)}</span></span>
+        <span>&Delta;: <span class="highlight">+${((best.composite - (currentResult?.composite || 0)) * 100).toFixed(1)}%</span></span>
+    </div>
+
+    <div class="layout">
+        <div>
+            <div class="col-label">Hurst window &rarr;</div>
+            <table class="heatmap">
+                <thead><tr><th></th>${colHeaders}</tr></thead>
+                <tbody>${rows}</tbody>
+            </table>
+            <div class="legend">
+                <span style="color:#f85149">bad</span>
+                <div class="legend-bar"></div>
+                <span style="color:#3fb950">good</span>
+                <span style="margin-left:12px;border-left:2px solid #58a6ff;padding-left:6px;">current</span>
+                <span style="border-left:2px solid #fff;padding-left:6px;">best</span>
+            </div>
+        </div>
+
+        <div>
+            <p class="section-title">Top 10 — Best combinations</p>
+            <div class="top10-chart">${top10Bars}</div>
+        </div>
+    </div>
+
+    <div class="bottom-row">
+        <div class="score-breakdown">
+            <div class="score-card">
+                <h3>Lag</h3>
+                <div class="value">30%</div>
+                <div class="desc">Responsiveness (inverse window size)</div>
+            </div>
+            <div class="score-card">
+                <h3>Stability</h3>
+                <div class="value">30%</div>
+                <div class="desc">Mean regime run-length</div>
+            </div>
+            <div class="score-card">
+                <h3>Entropy</h3>
+                <div class="value">25%</div>
+                <div class="desc">1 − random-band fraction</div>
+            </div>
+            <div class="score-card">
+                <h3>Structured</h3>
+                <div class="value">15%</div>
+                <div class="desc">PE structured fraction</div>
+            </div>
+        </div>
+
+        <table class="params-table">
+            <tr><td>Hurst range</td><td>${Math.round(hurstVals[0])} – ${Math.round(hurstVals[hurstVals.length - 1])} (center=${defaultH})</td></tr>
+            <tr><td>PE range</td><td>${Math.round(peVals[0])} – ${Math.round(peVals[peVals.length - 1])} (center=${defaultP})</td></tr>
+            <tr><td>Hurst scales</td><td>[8, 16, 32, 64]</td></tr>
+            <tr><td>PE embedding</td><td>m=5, delay=1</td></tr>
+            <tr><td>Spacing</td><td>geometric (ratio=${geoRatio.toFixed(3)})</td></tr>
+        </table>
+    </div>
+</body>
+</html>`;
+}
+async function main() {
+    const config = parseArgs();
+    try {
+        const srcConfig = config.source.config;
+        if (config.source.type === 'market_adapter' && !srcConfig.stateDir) {
+            srcConfig.stateDir = PATHS.MARKET_ADAPTER.STATE_DIR;
+        }
+        const source = createSource(config.source.type, srcConfig);
+        if (!config.quiet)
+            console.log(`[RegimeWindows] Loading candles from ${source.name}...`);
+        const candles = await source.fetchCandles();
+        if (!Array.isArray(candles) || candles.length === 0) {
+            throw new Error('No candles returned from source');
+        }
+        const prices = candles.map(c => getCandleClose(c) ?? 0);
+        if (!config.quiet)
+            console.log(`[RegimeWindows] ${prices.length} candles — running grid search...`);
+        const rawResults = [];
+        for (const hW of HURST_WINDOWS) {
+            for (const pW of PE_WINDOWS) {
+                if (!config.quiet)
+                    process.stdout.write(`  H=${hW.toFixed(1)} PE=${pW.toFixed(1)} ... `);
+                const r = scoreWindowPair(prices, hW, pW);
+                if (r) {
+                    rawResults.push(r);
+                    if (!config.quiet)
+                        console.log(`stab=${r._stabilityRaw.toFixed(1)}b  entr=${(r._entropyRaw * 100).toFixed(1)}%  lag=${r._lagRaw.toFixed(3)}`);
+                }
+                else {
+                    if (!config.quiet)
+                        console.log('skip (not enough data)');
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        const results = computeComposite(rawResults);
+        if (!config.quiet) {
+            const best = results.reduce((a, b) => a.composite > b.composite ? a : b);
+            console.log(`\n[RegimeWindows] Best: H=${Math.round(best.hurstWindow)} PE=${Math.round(best.peWindow)}  score=${best.composite}  (stab=${best.stabilityScore}  entr=${best.entropyScore}  lag=${best.lagScore})`);
+        }
+        const html = generateHeatmapHTML(results, HURST_WINDOWS, PE_WINDOWS);
+        writeChartFile(config.chartFile, html);
+        if (!config.quiet)
+            console.log(`[RegimeWindows] ✓ Chart saved to ${config.chartFile}`);
+    }
+    catch (err) {
+        console.error(`[RegimeWindows] Error: ${err.message}`);
+        process.exit(1);
+    }
+}
+main().catch(err => { console.error(err); process.exit(1); });
+//# sourceMappingURL=analyze_regime_windows.js.map

package/dist/analysis/analyze_regime_windows.js.map

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package/dist/analysis/analyze_risk_profile.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=analyze_risk_profile.d.ts.map

package/dist/analysis/analyze_risk_profile.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"analyze_risk_profile.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../analysis/analyze_risk_profile.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}

package/dist/analysis/analyze_risk_profile.js

@@ -0,0 +1,159 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+/**
+ * RISK PROFILE ANALYZER
+ *
+ * Unified utility to measure historical inventory drift (divergence quantiles
+ * and max divergence) to characterize risk bounds and establish safe ranges.
+ *
+ * Also computes the empirical standard deviation of per-bar AMA movement
+ * (σ_ama_delta) for calibrating AMA_DELTA_THRESHOLD_PERCENT.
+ */
+'use strict';
+Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
+const fs = require('fs');
+const { calculateAMA } = require('../market_adapter/core/strategies/ama');
+const { MARKET_ADAPTER } = require('../modules/constants');
+const { generateHTML } = require('../market_adapter/lp_chart_core');
+function normSInv(p) {
+    if (p <= 0 || p >= 1)
+        return p <= 0 ? -Infinity : Infinity;
+    const a = [-3.969683028665376e1, 2.209460984245205e2, -2.759285104469687e2, 1.383577518672690e2, -3.066479806614716e1, 2.506628277459239];
+    const b = [-5.447609879822406e1, 1.615858368580409e2, -1.556989798598866e2, 6.680131188771972e1, -1.328068155288572e1];
+    const c = [-7.784894002430293e-3, -3.223964580411365e-1, -2.400758277161838e0, -2.549732539343734e0, 4.374664141464968e0, 2.938163982698783e0];
+    const d = [7.784695709041462e-3, 3.224671290700398e-1, 2.445134137142996e0, 3.754408661907416e0];
+    const p_low = 0.02425;
+    const p_high = 1 - p_low;
+    if (p < p_low) {
+        const q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(p));
+        return (((((c[0] * q + c[1]) * q + c[2]) * q + c[3]) * q + c[4]) * q + c[5]) / ((((d[0] * q + d[1]) * q + d[2]) * q + d[3]) * q + 1);
+    }
+    else if (p <= p_high) {
+        const q = p - 0.5;
+        const r = q * q;
+        return (((((a[0] * r + a[1]) * r + a[2]) * r + a[3]) * r + a[4]) * r + a[5]) * q / (((((b[0] * r + b[1]) * r + b[2]) * r + b[3]) * r + b[4]) * r + 1);
+    }
+    else {
+        const q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(1 - p));
+        return -((((((c[0] * q + c[1]) * q + c[2]) * q + c[3]) * q + c[4]) * q + c[5]) / ((((d[0] * q + d[1]) * q + d[2]) * q + d[3]) * q + 1));
+    }
+}
+function quantileToSigma(q) {
+    return normSInv((1 + q) / 2);
+}
+const { calcStdDev } = require('./math_utils');
+const { readJSON } = require('../modules/utils/fs_utils');
+function getAmaDeltaStdDev(closes, amaConfig, warmup) {
+    const amaValues = calculateAMA(closes, amaConfig);
+    const deltas = [];
+    for (let i = warmup + 1; i < closes.length; i++) {
+        const prev = amaValues[i - 1];
+        const cur = amaValues[i];
+        if (!prev || !cur)
+            continue;
+        deltas.push((cur - prev) / prev);
+    }
+    return deltas.length ? calcStdDev(deltas) : null;
+}
+function getDivergenceDist(closes, amaConfig) {
+    const amaValues = calculateAMA(closes, amaConfig);
+    const dists = [];
+    // Skip initial warmup
+    for (let i = 1600; i < closes.length; i++) {
+        const ama = amaValues[i];
+        if (!ama)
+            continue;
+        dists.push(Math.abs(closes[i] - ama) / ama);
+    }
+    return dists.sort((a, b) => a - b);
+}
+function main() {
+    const args = process.argv.slice(2);
+    const dataIdx = args.indexOf('--data');
+    const dataPath = dataIdx !== -1 ? args[dataIdx + 1] : null;
+    if (!dataPath) {
+        console.error('Usage: tsx analysis/analyze_risk_profile.ts --data <path_to_json> [--ama <AMA_PRESET>] [--output <output_path>]');
+        process.exit(1);
+    }
+    const amaIdx = args.indexOf('--ama');
+    const selectedAma = amaIdx !== -1 ? args[amaIdx + 1] : 'AMA3';
+    const outIdx = args.indexOf('--output');
+    const outPath = outIdx !== -1 ? args[outIdx + 1] : null;
+    if (!fs.existsSync(dataPath)) {
+        console.error(`Data file not found: ${dataPath}`);
+        process.exit(1);
+    }
+    const data = readJSON(dataPath);
+    if (!data.candles || !Array.isArray(data.candles)) {
+        console.error('Invalid data format: Expected "candles" array.');
+        process.exit(1);
+    }
+    const closes = data.candles.map(c => Number(c[4]));
+    const warmup = 1600;
+    const presets = ['AMA1', 'AMA2', 'AMA3', 'AMA4'];
+    const quantiles = [0.999, 0.9999, 0.99999];
+    console.log(`Analyzing: ${dataPath}`);
+    const sigmaLabels = quantiles.map(q => `${(q * 100).toFixed(3)}% — ${quantileToSigma(q).toFixed(2)}σ`);
+    console.log('Preset, Max_Divergence(x), ' + sigmaLabels.map((l, i) => `${l} (${['Soft', 'Hard', 'Emergency'][i]})`).join(', '));
+    presets.forEach(name => {
+        const config = MARKET_ADAPTER.AMAS[name];
+        const allDists = getDivergenceDist(closes, config);
+        if (allDists.length === 0) {
+            console.log(`${name}, N/A, N/A, N/A, N/A`);
+            return;
+        }
+        const maxDist = allDists[allDists.length - 1];
+        const meanDist = allDists.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / allDists.length;
+        const stdDist = calcStdDev(allDists);
+        const amaDeltaSigma = getAmaDeltaStdDev(closes, config, warmup);
+        const quantileResults = quantiles.map(q => {
+            const val = allDists[Math.min(Math.floor(allDists.length * q), allDists.length - 1)];
+            const sigma = quantileToSigma(q);
+            const empSigma = (val - meanDist) / stdDist;
+            return `${(1 + val).toFixed(3)}x (${sigma.toFixed(2)}σt, ${empSigma.toFixed(2)}σe)`;
+        });
+        console.log(`${name}, ${(1 + maxDist).toFixed(3)}x, ${quantileResults.join(', ')}`);
+        console.log(`  σ_div: ${(stdDist * 100).toFixed(3)}% | mean_div: ${(meanDist * 100).toFixed(3)}% | σ_ama_delta: ${amaDeltaSigma !== null ? (amaDeltaSigma * 100).toFixed(3) : 'N/A'}%`);
+    });
+    if (outPath) {
+        if (!MARKET_ADAPTER.AMAS[selectedAma]) {
+            console.error(`Invalid AMA preset for output: ${selectedAma}. Choose from: ${Object.keys(MARKET_ADAPTER.AMAS).join(', ')}`);
+            process.exit(1);
+        }
+        const config = MARKET_ADAPTER.AMAS[selectedAma];
+        const amaValues = calculateAMA(closes, config);
+        const candleArrays = data.candles.map(c => [c[0], c[1], c[2], c[3], c[4], c[5]]);
+        // Calculate thresholds for display
+        const allDists = getDivergenceDist(closes, config);
+        const quantiles = [0.999, 0.9999, 0.99999];
+        const amaDeltaSigma = getAmaDeltaStdDev(closes, config, warmup);
+        const thresholds = quantiles.map(q => {
+            const val = allDists[Math.min(Math.floor(allDists.length * q), allDists.length - 1)];
+            return { quantile: q, multiplier: (1 + val).toFixed(3) };
+        });
+        const amaResult = {
+            name: selectedAma,
+            values: amaValues,
+            color: '#e3b341',
+            lineWidth: 2,
+            erPeriod: config.erPeriod,
+            fastPeriod: config.fastPeriod,
+            slowPeriod: config.slowPeriod
+        };
+        // Try to extract symbols from path or metadata if available, otherwise use generic
+        const pairMatch = dataPath.match(/\/lp\/([^\/]+)\//);
+        const pairName = pairMatch ? pairMatch[1].replace(/_/g, '-') : 'Market';
+        const meta = {
+            pool: `${pairName} ${selectedAma} Risk Analysis`,
+            assetA: { symbol: 'Base' },
+            assetB: { symbol: 'Quote' },
+            intervalSeconds: data.candles.length > 1 ? (data.candles[1][0] - data.candles[0][0]) / 1000 : 3600,
+            thresholds: thresholds,
+            sigmaAmaDelta: amaDeltaSigma !== null ? +((amaDeltaSigma * 100).toFixed(3)) : null
+        };
+        const html = generateHTML(meta, candleArrays, [amaResult]);
+        fs.writeFileSync(outPath, html);
+        console.log(`\nRisk dashboard generated: ${outPath}`);
+    }
+}
+main();
+//# sourceMappingURL=analyze_risk_profile.js.map

package/dist/analysis/analyze_risk_profile.js.map

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package/dist/analysis/analyze_trade_heatmap.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+export {};
+//# sourceMappingURL=analyze_trade_heatmap.d.ts.map

package/dist/analysis/analyze_trade_heatmap.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"analyze_trade_heatmap.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../analysis/analyze_trade_heatmap.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":""}