daftari 1.20.0 → 1.22.0

package/dist/consolidate/clocks.js

@@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
+// The three session-start clocks (spec §3.1), as pure functions over injected
+// edges/docs — no I/O, so they are exhaustively testable with a fixed `now`.
+// The I/O wrapper that feeds them is runConsolidate (index.ts).
+//
+// NOTE (Stage 1 scope): the decay clock keys off edge aged-strength only. The
+// spec's TTL-on-docs input (`ttl_days` frontmatter feeding the same clock) is
+// deferred to a later stage; it is additive and does not change the edge math.
+import { EDGE_K_CAP } from "../curation/edges.js";
+import { CONSOLIDATE_MAX_INTERVAL_DAYS, CONSOLIDATE_PATH_STRENGTH_FLOOR, reviewIntervalDays, } from "./constants.js";
+import { docContentHash } from "./state.js";
+const MS_PER_DAY = 86_400_000;
+function daysBetween(thenISO, now) {
+    return (now.getTime() - new Date(thenISO).getTime()) / MS_PER_DAY;
+}
+// Decay + backstop clocks. Backstop dominates (it is the guarantee): an edge past
+// the max-interval cap is backstop-overdue regardless of strength; otherwise an
+// edge past its strength-scaled review interval is decay-due.
+export function decayBackstopDue(edges, now) {
+    const out = [];
+    for (const e of edges) {
+        if (e.status === "revoked")
+            continue;
+        // Direction-unconfirmed edges are not trusted to bear triggers (spec §3.4);
+        // they stay visible as undirected relationships but never become due.
+        if (e.directionVerdict === "symmetric")
+            continue;
+        // Clamp at 0: a future-dated lastRederived (clock skew) yields a negative age;
+        // either way such an edge is fresh, not due (consistent with priority.ts ageOf).
+        const age = Math.max(0, daysBetween(e.lastRederived, now));
+        if (age >= CONSOLIDATE_MAX_INTERVAL_DAYS) {
+            out.push({
+                fromPath: e.fromPath,
+                toPath: e.toPath,
+                strength: e.strength,
+                reason: "backstop",
+            });
+        }
+        else if (age >= reviewIntervalDays(e.strength)) {
+            out.push({ fromPath: e.fromPath, toPath: e.toPath, strength: e.strength, reason: "decay" });
+        }
+    }
+    return out;
+}
+const edgeKey = (from, to) => `${from}\n${to}`;
+// Event clock: forward walk from changed premises over derives_from edges. An
+// edge (from → to) means `from` depends on `to`; a changed `to` makes `from` due.
+//
+// Attenuation: edge `strength` is the aged value in [0, EDGE_K_CAP] (k·decay), so
+// a strong edge has strength > 1 — multiplying raw strengths would *amplify* the
+// signal and never hit the floor. We normalize each hop to a factor in [0,1]
+// (strength / EDGE_K_CAP): a fully-earned edge passes the change-signal undimmed,
+// a weak/aged edge attenuates it. Reach = ∏(factors); a path stops below the
+// floor (spec §3.1, C-Q2).
+//
+// Max-product relaxation: a node can be reached by several paths with different
+// products. We keep the BEST (largest) product per node and re-expand when a
+// strictly larger product arrives — a plain visited-on-first-touch guard would
+// prune a node's descendants using whatever (possibly weaker) path reached it
+// first, which is order-dependent and wrongly drops reachable edges. Dedup is by
+// the full edge (from,to): two distinct edges sharing a `from` (a←b and a←c) are
+// separate review units (§4) and must both surface.
+export function eventDue(changedPaths, edges) {
+    const byPremise = new Map();
+    for (const e of edges) {
+        if (e.status === "revoked")
+            continue;
+        // Direction-unconfirmed edges don't propagate change signals (spec §3.4):
+        // we can't trust which endpoint is the premise, so a change on either side
+        // must not fabricate a due dependent.
+        if (e.directionVerdict === "symmetric")
+            continue;
+        const list = byPremise.get(e.toPath) ?? [];
+        list.push(e);
+        byPremise.set(e.toPath, list);
+    }
+    const due = new Map();
+    const bestProduct = new Map();
+    const queue = [];
+    for (const p of changedPaths) {
+        if ((bestProduct.get(p) ?? -1) < 1) {
+            bestProduct.set(p, 1);
+            queue.push({ path: p, product: 1 });
+        }
+    }
+    // Hard stop: products only decrease (factors ≤ 1) and we re-enqueue only on
+    // strict improvement, so this converges; the cap is a defensive backstop.
+    const maxExpansions = edges.length * edges.length + edges.length + changedPaths.length + 16;
+    let head = 0;
+    let expansions = 0;
+    while (head < queue.length && expansions < maxExpansions) {
+        const item = queue[head++];
+        if (!item)
+            break;
+        expansions += 1;
+        if (item.product < (bestProduct.get(item.path) ?? 0))
+            continue; // stale entry
+        for (const e of byPremise.get(item.path) ?? []) {
+            const factor = Math.min(Math.max(e.strength / EDGE_K_CAP, 0), 1);
+            const carried = item.product * factor;
+            if (carried < CONSOLIDATE_PATH_STRENGTH_FLOOR)
+                continue; // signal faded
+            const key = edgeKey(e.fromPath, e.toPath);
+            if (!due.has(key)) {
+                due.set(key, {
+                    fromPath: e.fromPath,
+                    toPath: e.toPath,
+                    strength: e.strength,
+                    reason: "event",
+                });
+            }
+            if (carried > (bestProduct.get(e.fromPath) ?? 0)) {
+                bestProduct.set(e.fromPath, carried);
+                queue.push({ path: e.fromPath, product: carried });
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    return [...due.values()];
+}
+// Birth queue: docs never processed, or whose content changed since (edited ⇒
+// re-birth, spec §4.0). Stage 1 only computes this; it never marks anything
+// processed (no births are executed — that is Stage 2).
+export function birthQueue(docs, birthProcessed) {
+    return docs
+        .filter((d) => birthProcessed[d.relPath] !== docContentHash(d.content))
+        .map((d) => d.relPath);
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=clocks.js.map

package/dist/consolidate/clocks.js.map

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package/dist/consolidate/constants.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+export declare const CONSOLIDATE_MIN_INTERVAL_DAYS = 1;
+export declare const CONSOLIDATE_MAX_INTERVAL_DAYS = 90;
+export declare function reviewIntervalDays(strength: number): number;
+export declare const CONSOLIDATE_PATH_STRENGTH_FLOOR = 0.1;
+export declare const CONSOLIDATE_SLICE_FRACTIONS: {
+    readonly backstop: 0.25;
+    readonly main: 0.45;
+    readonly periphery: 0.15;
+    readonly birth: 0.15;
+};
+export declare const CONSOLIDATE_DEFAULT_BUDGET = 50;
+export declare const CONSOLIDATE_PANEL_SIZE = 2;
+export declare const CONSOLIDATE_BIRTH_TOP_K = 20;
+export declare const CONSOLIDATE_DEFAULT_MODEL = "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001";
+export declare const CONSOLIDATE_AGENT = "agent:curation-loop";
+export declare const CONSOLIDATE_PROMPT_TEMPLATES: readonly ["forward", "reverse", "contrast"];
+export type ConsolidatePromptTemplate = (typeof CONSOLIDATE_PROMPT_TEMPLATES)[number];
+export declare const CONSOLIDATE_DECORRELATION_MIN_LIFT = 0.05;
+export declare const CONSOLIDATE_DIRECTION_MIN_ACCURACY = 0.85;
+export declare const CONSOLIDATE_PRICING_PER_MTOKEN: Record<string, {
+    input: number;
+    output: number;
+}>;
+export declare function isModelPriced(model: string): boolean;
+export declare function estimateCostUSD(model: string, inputTokens: number, outputTokens: number): number;
+//# sourceMappingURL=constants.d.ts.map

package/dist/consolidate/constants.d.ts.map

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package/dist/consolidate/constants.js

@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
+// Provisional scheduler constants. EVERY value here is a calibration target
+// (spec §10 — calibrate from shadow data); the loop runs on these placeholders
+// until Stage 5. Single-sourced + exported so calibration has one home, mirroring
+// EDGE_* / SHADOW_* in the curation layer.
+// Review interval f(aged strength): MIN · 2^strength, hard-capped by MAX (the
+// max-interval backstop — nothing rests longer than this without re-derivation).
+export const CONSOLIDATE_MIN_INTERVAL_DAYS = 1;
+export const CONSOLIDATE_MAX_INTERVAL_DAYS = 90; // aligns with EDGE_HALF_LIFE_DAYS
+export function reviewIntervalDays(strength) {
+    const grown = CONSOLIDATE_MIN_INTERVAL_DAYS * 2 ** Math.max(0, strength);
+    return Math.min(grown, CONSOLIDATE_MAX_INTERVAL_DAYS);
+}
+// Event-blast attenuation: a forward path's reach = ∏(edge strengths); it stops
+// where the product drops below this floor (spec §3.1, C-Q2).
+export const CONSOLIDATE_PATH_STRENGTH_FLOOR = 0.1;
+// Compute-budget partition (spec §3.3). Fractions of the per-session budget.
+// backstop is GUARANTEED; periphery is blast-blind fairness; birth is one-time
+// cold-start population. Provisional — tuned against B coverage metrics (§6.2).
+export const CONSOLIDATE_SLICE_FRACTIONS = {
+    backstop: 0.25,
+    main: 0.45,
+    periphery: 0.15,
+    birth: 0.15,
+};
+// Stage 1 has no LLM calls, so "budget" = max queue items emitted per session.
+// With Component A (Stage 2) this becomes the re-derivation-call cap.
+export const CONSOLIDATE_DEFAULT_BUDGET = 50;
+// --- Stage 2 (Component A) ----------------------------------------------------
+// Panel size M: votes cast per due edge per session (spec §4.1, brief item 2).
+// Starting M=2 — provisional, TBD — calibrate from shadow data.
+export const CONSOLIDATE_PANEL_SIZE = 2;
+// Birth-mode neighbor retrieval: top-K embedding neighbors per unprocessed doc
+// (spec §4.0). 20 = the K in the §10.2 recall@20 kill condition.
+export const CONSOLIDATE_BIRTH_TOP_K = 20;
+// Default LLM model for re-derivation. Haiku 4.5 — cheapest tier where the
+// task is "detect derivation," not "subtle reasoning." Override via the
+// DAFTARI_CONSOLIDATE_MODEL env var when calibrating against bigger models.
+export const CONSOLIDATE_DEFAULT_MODEL = "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001";
+// The agent principal Stage 2 attributes its writes to (spec §8). The server
+// is started as `--user agent:curation-loop --role curation-loop`; this string
+// is the free-text `agent` claim on edge_observe/contest (the authenticated
+// principal is recorded separately by the shadow path).
+export const CONSOLIDATE_AGENT = "agent:curation-loop";
+// Prompt-framing axis (v1 = the only varied axis, see brief item 3). Three
+// deterministic templates that re-derive the same edge claim from different
+// directions. Each template is independent of the others by *framing*, not
+// by model or input — whether that is enough to decorrelate votes is the
+// load-bearing question the decorrelation report (brief item 8) decides.
+export const CONSOLIDATE_PROMPT_TEMPLATES = ["forward", "reverse", "contrast"];
+// Decorrelation lift (brief item 8 / spec §10.2). `majority_accuracy −
+// max(single_vote_accuracy)`. Retained as an informational metric: under the
+// foundational-ordering prompt (which replaced the prompt-framing axes) the
+// axes send an identical deterministic prompt, so lift is ~0 by construction —
+// confirming the axes no longer decorrelate, the verdict doc's conclusion.
+export const CONSOLIDATE_DECORRELATION_MIN_LIFT = 0.05;
+// The report's PASS gate is now ACCURACY, not lift (spec §5 — it measures the
+// foundational prompt's direction-recovery accuracy on the fixture). Matches the
+// real-prose gate's 85% directional kill condition.
+export const CONSOLIDATE_DIRECTION_MIN_ACCURACY = 0.85;
+// LLM pricing — USD per million tokens, current as of 2026-06-16 for
+// claude-haiku-4-5-20251001. VERIFY against current pricing before reading the
+// cost-USD figure as gospel; this table is a recoverable mistake (the raw
+// token counts ARE logged into the shadow journal, so historical sessions can
+// be re-costed when prices move). Override per-model via the table; unknown
+// models fall back to Haiku pricing with a flag in the report.
+export const CONSOLIDATE_PRICING_PER_MTOKEN = {
+    "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001": { input: 1.0, output: 5.0 },
+    "claude-sonnet-4-6": { input: 3.0, output: 15.0 },
+    "claude-opus-4-8": { input: 15.0, output: 75.0 },
+};
+// True when the model has its own pricing row (vs falling back to Haiku rates).
+export function isModelPriced(model) {
+    return Object.hasOwn(CONSOLIDATE_PRICING_PER_MTOKEN, model);
+}
+export function estimateCostUSD(model, inputTokens, outputTokens) {
+    const p = CONSOLIDATE_PRICING_PER_MTOKEN[model] ??
+        CONSOLIDATE_PRICING_PER_MTOKEN["claude-haiku-4-5-20251001"];
+    // Clamp negatives: a bad token count must not produce a negative "cost".
+    const inTok = Math.max(0, inputTokens);
+    const outTok = Math.max(0, outputTokens);
+    return (inTok * p.input + outTok * p.output) / 1_000_000;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=constants.js.map

package/dist/consolidate/constants.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/consolidate/decorrelation.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+import type { LlmClient } from "../eval/llm.js";
+import { type Result } from "../frontmatter/types.js";
+import { type ConsolidatePromptTemplate } from "./constants.js";
+import { type DerivationVerdict } from "./derivation-prompt.js";
+export type FixtureTruth = "derives" | "depends" | "neither";
+export interface DecorrelationFixtureEdge {
+    id: string;
+    fromPath: string;
+    toPath: string;
+    fromContent: string;
+    toContent: string;
+    truth: FixtureTruth;
+    edgeClass?: "forward-temporal" | "backward-causal" | "symmetric";
+    rationale?: string;
+}
+export interface DecorrelationFixture {
+    version: 1;
+    edges: DecorrelationFixtureEdge[];
+}
+export type VoteVerdict = FixtureTruth | "symmetric";
+export interface DecorrelationVote {
+    axis: ConsolidatePromptTemplate;
+    verdict: VoteVerdict | "error";
+    reason?: string;
+}
+export interface DecorrelationPerEdge {
+    id: string;
+    truth: FixtureTruth;
+    votes: DecorrelationVote[];
+    majorityVerdict: VoteVerdict | "tie" | "all-error";
+    majorityCorrect: boolean;
+}
+export interface DecorrelationMetrics {
+    singleVoteAccuracy: Record<ConsolidatePromptTemplate, number>;
+    majorityAccuracy: number;
+    liftOverBestSingle: number;
+    axisAgreementRate: number;
+    errorCorrelation: number;
+}
+export interface DecorrelationReport {
+    fixtureSize: number;
+    fixtureSource: string;
+    axes: readonly ConsolidatePromptTemplate[];
+    model: string;
+    metrics: DecorrelationMetrics;
+    passes: boolean;
+    perEdge: DecorrelationPerEdge[];
+    axisCounts: Record<ConsolidatePromptTemplate, {
+        correct: number;
+        wrong: number;
+        errored: number;
+    }>;
+}
+export declare function parseFixture(raw: unknown): Result<DecorrelationFixture, Error>;
+export declare function loadFixture(path: string): Result<DecorrelationFixture, Error>;
+export declare function mapDerivationToFixture(v: DerivationVerdict): VoteVerdict;
+export interface DecorrelationRunDeps {
+    llm: LlmClient;
+}
+export interface DecorrelationRunOpts {
+    model: string;
+    axes?: readonly ConsolidatePromptTemplate[];
+    fixtureSource: string;
+}
+export declare function runDecorrelation(fixture: DecorrelationFixture, deps: DecorrelationRunDeps, opts: DecorrelationRunOpts): Promise<Result<DecorrelationReport, Error>>;
+export declare function majorityVerdict(votes: DecorrelationVote[]): VoteVerdict | "tie" | "all-error";
+export declare function computeMetrics(perEdge: DecorrelationPerEdge[], axes: readonly ConsolidatePromptTemplate[]): DecorrelationMetrics;
+export declare function formatDecorrelationReport(report: DecorrelationReport): string;
+//# sourceMappingURL=decorrelation.d.ts.map

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package/dist/consolidate/decorrelation.js

@@ -0,0 +1,287 @@
+// Axis-decorrelation report (brief item 8). Runs the v1 prompt-framing
+// templates against a ground-truth-labeled fixture and asks: does the panel
+// beat its best single axis? If not, the axes are decorative — multi-model
+// must land inside Stage 2, not be deferred to Stage 5.
+//
+// THE FIXTURE IS THE GATE — not this code. This module ships the math + the
+// CLI surface; the real ~50-pair hand-built fixture lives in
+// tests/fixtures/decorrelation-fixture.json and is built in a separate
+// session (see the chunk-6 handoff). Until it exists, the gate cannot fire
+// meaningfully and the report is exercise-only.
+//
+// Verdict space: the fixture ground truth is the 3-class {derives, depends,
+// neither} directional claim. The report now elicits with the SHARED
+// foundational-ordering prompt birth runs (derivation-prompt.ts, closing F3) and
+// maps its {related, premise} verdict onto that 3-class truth (+ a 4th
+// "symmetric" vote that never matches a directional truth, so a fabricated
+// mutual answer is correctly scored wrong).
+//
+// NOTE (axes are now redundant): the foundational prompt is order-agnostic and
+// temperature-0 deterministic, so the three prompt-framing axes send an
+// identical prompt and agree by construction — the report measures the
+// foundational prompt's per-edge ACCURACY (spec §5), not prompt-framing
+// decorrelation (which the verdict doc already found decorative). Collapsing the
+// axes loop to a single judgment is a follow-up; the structure is retained here
+// to keep the report/CLI surface stable.
+import { readFileSync } from "node:fs";
+import { err, ok } from "../frontmatter/types.js";
+// Import birth's reconciliation so the report measures EXACTLY what birth ships.
+import { reconcileDirection } from "./birth.js";
+import { CONSOLIDATE_DECORRELATION_MIN_LIFT, CONSOLIDATE_DIRECTION_MIN_ACCURACY, CONSOLIDATE_PROMPT_TEMPLATES, } from "./constants.js";
+import { DERIVATION_SYSTEM, DERIVATION_VERDICT_SCHEMA, derivationUserBody, parseDerivationVerdict, } from "./derivation-prompt.js";
+// --- fixture I/O -------------------------------------------------------------
+export function parseFixture(raw) {
+    if (typeof raw !== "object" || raw === null || Array.isArray(raw)) {
+        return err(new Error("fixture: expected an object with `version` and `edges`"));
+    }
+    const obj = raw;
+    if (obj.version !== 1) {
+        return err(new Error(`fixture: unsupported version ${JSON.stringify(obj.version)}`));
+    }
+    if (!Array.isArray(obj.edges)) {
+        return err(new Error("fixture: `edges` must be an array"));
+    }
+    const edges = [];
+    for (let i = 0; i < obj.edges.length; i++) {
+        const e = obj.edges[i];
+        if (typeof e.id !== "string" ||
+            typeof e.fromPath !== "string" ||
+            typeof e.toPath !== "string" ||
+            typeof e.fromContent !== "string" ||
+            typeof e.toContent !== "string" ||
+            (e.truth !== "derives" && e.truth !== "depends" && e.truth !== "neither")) {
+            return err(new Error(`fixture: edge[${i}] malformed (need id, fromPath, toPath, fromContent, toContent, truth)`));
+        }
+        edges.push({
+            id: e.id,
+            fromPath: e.fromPath,
+            toPath: e.toPath,
+            fromContent: e.fromContent,
+            toContent: e.toContent,
+            truth: e.truth,
+            ...(typeof e.edgeClass === "string" &&
+                (e.edgeClass === "forward-temporal" ||
+                    e.edgeClass === "backward-causal" ||
+                    e.edgeClass === "symmetric")
+                ? { edgeClass: e.edgeClass }
+                : {}),
+            ...(typeof e.rationale === "string" ? { rationale: e.rationale } : {}),
+        });
+    }
+    return ok({ version: 1, edges });
+}
+export function loadFixture(path) {
+    let raw;
+    try {
+        raw = readFileSync(path, "utf-8");
+    }
+    catch (e) {
+        return err(new Error(`fixture: cannot read ${path}: ${e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e)}`));
+    }
+    let parsed;
+    try {
+        parsed = JSON.parse(raw);
+    }
+    catch (e) {
+        return err(new Error(`fixture: invalid JSON: ${e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e)}`));
+    }
+    return parseFixture(parsed);
+}
+// --- prompt + verdict mapping (shared foundational prompt, closing F3) --------
+const MAX_DOC_CHARS = 1500;
+function truncate(s) {
+    return s.length <= MAX_DOC_CHARS ? s : `${s.slice(0, MAX_DOC_CHARS)}\n…[truncated]`;
+}
+// Map the foundational {related, premise} verdict onto the fixture's 3-class
+// directional truth (DOC A = fromPath/fromContent, DOC B = toPath/toContent):
+//   related:false        → neither
+//   premise === "B"      → A derives from B            → "derives"
+//   premise === "A"      → B derives from A            → "depends"
+//   premise === "symmetric" → "symmetric" (never matches a directional truth)
+export function mapDerivationToFixture(v) {
+    if (!v.related)
+        return "neither";
+    if (v.premise === "symmetric")
+        return "symmetric";
+    return v.premise === "B" ? "derives" : "depends";
+}
+// Run BOTH presentation orders and reconcile via birth's reconcileDirection
+// (doc=from, neighbor=to), then map to the 3-class fixture truth:
+//   directed, premise=neighbor(to) → A derives from B            → "derives"
+//   directed, premise=doc(from)    → B derives from A            → "depends"
+//   symmetric / order-contested    → "symmetric" (no directional truth matches)
+//   unrelated                      → "neither"
+// Any LLM/parse failure in either order yields "error".
+async function reconcileEdgeToFixture(edge, elicit) {
+    // Order 1: DOC A = from, DOC B = to.
+    const r1 = await elicit(edge.fromPath, edge.fromContent, edge.toPath, edge.toContent);
+    if (!r1.ok)
+        return { verdict: "error", reason: r1.error.message };
+    const p1 = parseDerivationVerdict(r1.value.parsed);
+    if (!p1.ok)
+        return { verdict: "error", reason: p1.error.message };
+    // Order 2: DOC A = to, DOC B = from.
+    const r2 = await elicit(edge.toPath, edge.toContent, edge.fromPath, edge.fromContent);
+    if (!r2.ok)
+        return { verdict: "error", reason: r2.error.message };
+    const p2 = parseDerivationVerdict(r2.value.parsed);
+    if (!p2.ok)
+        return { verdict: "error", reason: p2.error.message };
+    const outcome = reconcileDirection(p1.value, p2.value);
+    const reason = p1.value.reason;
+    if (outcome.kind === "unrelated")
+        return { verdict: "neither", reason };
+    if (outcome.kind === "symmetric")
+        return { verdict: "symmetric", reason };
+    // directed: premise "neighbor" (=to) ⇒ derives; "doc" (=from) ⇒ depends.
+    return { verdict: outcome.premise === "neighbor" ? "derives" : "depends", reason };
+}
+export async function runDecorrelation(fixture, deps, opts) {
+    const axes = opts.axes ?? CONSOLIDATE_PROMPT_TEMPLATES;
+    const perEdge = [];
+    const axisCounts = {};
+    for (const a of axes)
+        axisCounts[a] = { correct: 0, wrong: 0, errored: 0 };
+    // One foundational elicitation per (edge, order) at temp 0. Birth runs BOTH
+    // orders and reconciles (option c), abstaining → symmetric on order-disagreement;
+    // the report mirrors that EXACTLY via birth's reconcileDirection so its accuracy
+    // is birth's trusted-directed rate, not a single-order upper bound (closes F3).
+    const elicit = (aPath, aContent, bPath, bContent) => deps.llm.completeJson({
+        model: opts.model,
+        system: DERIVATION_SYSTEM,
+        user: derivationUserBody(aPath, truncate(aContent), bPath, truncate(bContent)),
+        schema: DERIVATION_VERDICT_SCHEMA,
+        temperature: 0,
+    });
+    for (const edge of fixture.edges) {
+        // Reconcile ONCE per edge (the prompt-framing axes are identical under the
+        // deterministic prompt), then emit the same vote for every axis so the
+        // per-axis/majority/lift machinery is preserved.
+        const verdict = await reconcileEdgeToFixture(edge, elicit);
+        const votes = axes.map((axis) => ({
+            axis,
+            verdict: verdict.verdict,
+            ...(verdict.reason ? { reason: verdict.reason } : {}),
+        }));
+        for (const axis of axes) {
+            if (verdict.verdict === "error")
+                axisCounts[axis].errored++;
+            else if (verdict.verdict === edge.truth)
+                axisCounts[axis].correct++;
+            else
+                axisCounts[axis].wrong++;
+        }
+        const majority = majorityVerdict(votes);
+        perEdge.push({
+            id: edge.id,
+            truth: edge.truth,
+            votes,
+            majorityVerdict: majority,
+            majorityCorrect: majority === edge.truth,
+        });
+    }
+    const metrics = computeMetrics(perEdge, axes);
+    return ok({
+        fixtureSize: fixture.edges.length,
+        fixtureSource: opts.fixtureSource,
+        axes,
+        model: opts.model,
+        metrics,
+        passes: metrics.majorityAccuracy >= CONSOLIDATE_DIRECTION_MIN_ACCURACY,
+        perEdge,
+        axisCounts: axisCounts,
+    });
+}
+// --- math (exported for unit testing) ---------------------------------------
+// Most common non-error verdict. Returns "tie" when the top two are tied (the
+// panel can't decide), or "all-error" when every vote errored.
+export function majorityVerdict(votes) {
+    const counts = new Map();
+    let nonErrors = 0;
+    for (const v of votes) {
+        if (v.verdict === "error")
+            continue;
+        counts.set(v.verdict, (counts.get(v.verdict) ?? 0) + 1);
+        nonErrors++;
+    }
+    if (nonErrors === 0)
+        return "all-error";
+    const sorted = [...counts.entries()].sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]);
+    if (sorted.length > 1 && sorted[0][1] === sorted[1][1])
+        return "tie";
+    return sorted[0][0];
+}
+export function computeMetrics(perEdge, axes) {
+    const singleVoteAccuracy = {};
+    for (const a of axes) {
+        let correct = 0;
+        let nonError = 0;
+        for (const row of perEdge) {
+            const v = row.votes.find((x) => x.axis === a);
+            if (!v || v.verdict === "error")
+                continue;
+            nonError++;
+            if (v.verdict === row.truth)
+                correct++;
+        }
+        singleVoteAccuracy[a] = nonError === 0 ? 0 : correct / nonError;
+    }
+    const majCorrect = perEdge.filter((p) => p.majorityCorrect).length;
+    const majorityAccuracy = perEdge.length === 0 ? 0 : majCorrect / perEdge.length;
+    const bestSingle = Math.max(0, ...axes.map((a) => singleVoteAccuracy[a]));
+    const liftOverBestSingle = majorityAccuracy - bestSingle;
+    // Axis agreement: of rows where ALL axes returned a verdict, fraction where
+    // all verdicts matched.
+    let allVoted = 0;
+    let allAgreed = 0;
+    for (const row of perEdge) {
+        const nonErr = row.votes.filter((v) => v.verdict !== "error");
+        if (nonErr.length < axes.length)
+            continue;
+        allVoted++;
+        const unique = new Set(nonErr.map((v) => v.verdict));
+        if (unique.size === 1)
+            allAgreed++;
+    }
+    const axisAgreementRate = allVoted === 0 ? 0 : allAgreed / allVoted;
+    // Error correlation: of rows where >=2 axes were wrong, fraction where ALL
+    // the wrong axes gave the SAME wrong verdict. High = the axes share a
+    // failure mode (not independent), even if `lift` looked acceptable.
+    let multiWrong = 0;
+    let multiWrongAgreed = 0;
+    for (const row of perEdge) {
+        const wrong = row.votes.filter((v) => v.verdict !== "error" && v.verdict !== row.truth);
+        if (wrong.length < 2)
+            continue;
+        multiWrong++;
+        const uniqueWrong = new Set(wrong.map((v) => v.verdict));
+        if (uniqueWrong.size === 1)
+            multiWrongAgreed++;
+    }
+    const errorCorrelation = multiWrong === 0 ? 0 : multiWrongAgreed / multiWrong;
+    return {
+        singleVoteAccuracy: singleVoteAccuracy,
+        majorityAccuracy,
+        liftOverBestSingle,
+        axisAgreementRate,
+        errorCorrelation,
+    };
+}
+// --- text report ------------------------------------------------------------
+export function formatDecorrelationReport(report) {
+    const lines = [];
+    lines.push(`decorrelation report — fixture: ${report.fixtureSource}`);
+    lines.push(`  size: ${report.fixtureSize} edges | axes: ${report.axes.join(", ")} | model: ${report.model}`);
+    lines.push(`  per-axis accuracy:`);
+    for (const a of report.axes) {
+        const c = report.axisCounts[a];
+        lines.push(`    ${a}: ${(report.metrics.singleVoteAccuracy[a] * 100).toFixed(1)}%  (correct ${c.correct} / wrong ${c.wrong} / errored ${c.errored})`);
+    }
+    lines.push(`  majority accuracy:  ${(report.metrics.majorityAccuracy * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);
+    lines.push(`  lift over best single:  ${(report.metrics.liftOverBestSingle * 100).toFixed(2)} pp  (informational; min-lift ${(CONSOLIDATE_DECORRELATION_MIN_LIFT * 100).toFixed(1)} pp — axes identical under the foundational prompt)`);
+    lines.push(`  axis agreement rate: ${(report.metrics.axisAgreementRate * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);
+    lines.push(`  error correlation:   ${(report.metrics.errorCorrelation * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);
+    lines.push(`  VERDICT: ${report.passes ? "PASS — foundational prompt recovers direction" : "FAIL — direction recovery below the accuracy bar"}  (accuracy gate: >= ${(CONSOLIDATE_DIRECTION_MIN_ACCURACY * 100).toFixed(0)}%)`);
+    return `${lines.join("\n")}\n`;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=decorrelation.js.map

package/dist/consolidate/decorrelation.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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