crewly 1.20.193 → 1.20.194

package/dist/backend/backend/src/services/experiments/experiment-verdict.d.ts

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+/**
+ * Experiment windows and verdicts (issue #986).
+ *
+ * Windows: the baseline is the `windowDays` days that had settled when the
+ * change shipped (ending `lag` days before the ship day); the observation
+ * window is the `windowDays` days after the ship day (the ship day itself is
+ * a partial day and is left out). The result is due once the observation
+ * window's last day has settled (`lag` days later).
+ *
+ * Verdicts use simple rules with a minimum volume:
+ * - counts (clicks, impressions, sessions, events): equal-length Poisson
+ *   comparison, z = (b − a) / √(a + b), with at least MIN_COUNT_VOLUME events
+ *   across both windows;
+ * - ctr: two-proportion z-test, with enough impressions in each window and
+ *   enough clicks overall;
+ * - position: Welch's t on the daily positions, with enough days that had
+ *   impressions in each window (lower is better).
+ * |z| ≥ SIGNIFICANCE_Z in the hypothesis's direction → worked; enough volume
+ * but no such change → didn't; too little volume → inconclusive.
+ *
+ * specs/experiment-cards.md
+ *
+ * @module services/experiments/experiment-verdict
+ */
+import type { ExperimentDirection, ExperimentMeasure, ExperimentSource, ExperimentVerdict, Measurement } from '../../types/experiment.types.js';
+/** A date range (inclusive, YYYY-MM-DD). */
+export interface DateRange {
+    start: string;
+    end: string;
+}
+/** The two windows of an experiment and when it can be measured. */
+export interface ExperimentWindows {
+    baseline: DateRange;
+    observation: DateRange;
+    /** ISO time the result can be fetched (observation end + lag, start of the next day UTC) */
+    dueAt: string;
+}
+/** A verdict with its numbers. */
+export interface VerdictOutcome {
+    verdict: ExperimentVerdict;
+    /** One line with the numbers */
+    reason: string;
+    /** Test statistic (z or Welch t), when there was enough volume to compute it */
+    statistic?: number;
+    /** Relative change of the headline value (null when the baseline is 0 / unknown) */
+    lift?: number | null;
+}
+/**
+ * Baseline / observation windows and the due time for a shipped experiment.
+ *
+ * @param shippedAt - When the change went live (ISO)
+ * @param windowDays - Days per window
+ * @param source - Metric source (sets the lag)
+ * @returns Windows
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * experimentWindows('2026-10-10T15:00:00Z', 14, 'gsc');
+ * // baseline 2026-09-24..2026-10-07, observation 2026-10-11..2026-10-24, due 2026-10-28
+ * ```
+ */
+export declare function experimentWindows(shippedAt: string, windowDays: number, source: ExperimentSource): ExperimentWindows;
+/**
+ * The direction a hypothesis means when it doesn't say: lower is better for position.
+ *
+ * @param measure - Measure
+ * @returns Default direction
+ */
+export declare function defaultDirection(measure: ExperimentMeasure): ExperimentDirection;
+/**
+ * Format a number for a verdict line.
+ *
+ * @param v - Value
+ * @param measure - Measure (ctr as a percentage, position to one decimal)
+ * @returns Text
+ */
+export declare function formatValue(v: number | null | undefined, measure: ExperimentMeasure): string;
+/**
+ * Label a measured experiment.
+ *
+ * @param measure - What was measured
+ * @param direction - Which way the hypothesis says it moves
+ * @param baseline - Baseline window
+ * @param result - Observation window
+ * @returns Verdict, one-line reason and the statistic
+ */
+export declare function decideVerdict(measure: ExperimentMeasure, direction: ExperimentDirection, baseline: Measurement, result: Measurement): VerdictOutcome;
+//# sourceMappingURL=experiment-verdict.d.ts.map

package/dist/backend/backend/src/services/experiments/experiment-verdict.d.ts.map

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package/dist/backend/backend/src/services/experiments/experiment-verdict.js

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+/**
+ * Experiment windows and verdicts (issue #986).
+ *
+ * Windows: the baseline is the `windowDays` days that had settled when the
+ * change shipped (ending `lag` days before the ship day); the observation
+ * window is the `windowDays` days after the ship day (the ship day itself is
+ * a partial day and is left out). The result is due once the observation
+ * window's last day has settled (`lag` days later).
+ *
+ * Verdicts use simple rules with a minimum volume:
+ * - counts (clicks, impressions, sessions, events): equal-length Poisson
+ *   comparison, z = (b − a) / √(a + b), with at least MIN_COUNT_VOLUME events
+ *   across both windows;
+ * - ctr: two-proportion z-test, with enough impressions in each window and
+ *   enough clicks overall;
+ * - position: Welch's t on the daily positions, with enough days that had
+ *   impressions in each window (lower is better).
+ * |z| ≥ SIGNIFICANCE_Z in the hypothesis's direction → worked; enough volume
+ * but no such change → didn't; too little volume → inconclusive.
+ *
+ * specs/experiment-cards.md
+ *
+ * @module services/experiments/experiment-verdict
+ */
+import { EXPERIMENT_CONSTANTS } from '../../constants.js';
+const DAY_MS = 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
+/**
+ * Format a UTC date as YYYY-MM-DD.
+ *
+ * @param ms - Epoch millis
+ * @returns Day string
+ */
+function day(ms) {
+    return new Date(ms).toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+}
+/**
+ * Midnight UTC of the day an instant falls on.
+ *
+ * @param iso - ISO time
+ * @returns Epoch millis
+ * @throws Error on an invalid time
+ */
+function dayStart(iso) {
+    const t = Date.parse(iso);
+    if (Number.isNaN(t))
+        throw new Error(`Invalid time: ${iso}`);
+    return Math.floor(t / DAY_MS) * DAY_MS;
+}
+/**
+ * Baseline / observation windows and the due time for a shipped experiment.
+ *
+ * @param shippedAt - When the change went live (ISO)
+ * @param windowDays - Days per window
+ * @param source - Metric source (sets the lag)
+ * @returns Windows
+ *
+ * @example
+ * ```typescript
+ * experimentWindows('2026-10-10T15:00:00Z', 14, 'gsc');
+ * // baseline 2026-09-24..2026-10-07, observation 2026-10-11..2026-10-24, due 2026-10-28
+ * ```
+ */
+export function experimentWindows(shippedAt, windowDays, source) {
+    const ship = dayStart(shippedAt);
+    const lag = EXPERIMENT_CONSTANTS.SOURCE_LAG_DAYS[source] ?? 0;
+    const baseEnd = ship - lag * DAY_MS;
+    const obsStart = ship + DAY_MS;
+    const obsEnd = ship + windowDays * DAY_MS;
+    return {
+        baseline: { start: day(baseEnd - (windowDays - 1) * DAY_MS), end: day(baseEnd) },
+        observation: { start: day(obsStart), end: day(obsEnd) },
+        dueAt: new Date(obsEnd + (lag + 1) * DAY_MS).toISOString(),
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * The direction a hypothesis means when it doesn't say: lower is better for position.
+ *
+ * @param measure - Measure
+ * @returns Default direction
+ */
+export function defaultDirection(measure) {
+    return EXPERIMENT_CONSTANTS.LOWER_IS_BETTER.includes(measure) ? 'decrease' : 'increase';
+}
+/**
+ * Format a number for a verdict line.
+ *
+ * @param v - Value
+ * @param measure - Measure (ctr as a percentage, position to one decimal)
+ * @returns Text
+ */
+export function formatValue(v, measure) {
+    if (v === null || v === undefined || !Number.isFinite(v))
+        return 'n/a';
+    if (measure === 'ctr')
+        return `${(v * 100).toFixed(2)}%`;
+    if (measure === 'position')
+        return v.toFixed(1);
+    return String(Math.round(v * 100) / 100);
+}
+/**
+ * Relative change.
+ *
+ * @param from - Baseline
+ * @param to - Result
+ * @returns (to − from) / from, or null when from is 0 / missing
+ */
+function liftOf(from, to) {
+    if (from === null || from === undefined || to === null || to === undefined || from === 0)
+        return null;
+    return (to - from) / from;
+}
+/**
+ * "+40%" / "−12%" / "".
+ *
+ * @param lift - Relative change
+ * @returns Text with a leading space, or empty
+ */
+function liftText(lift) {
+    if (lift === null)
+        return '';
+    const pct = Math.round(lift * 1000) / 10;
+    return ` (${pct >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${pct}%)`;
+}
+/**
+ * Label from a statistic: worked when it is significant in the hypothesis's direction.
+ *
+ * @param stat - z or t (positive = the metric rose)
+ * @param direction - Hypothesis direction
+ * @returns worked / didnt and the wording
+ */
+function judge(stat, direction) {
+    const z = EXPERIMENT_CONSTANTS.SIGNIFICANCE_Z;
+    const wanted = direction === 'increase' ? stat >= z : stat <= -z;
+    if (wanted)
+        return { verdict: 'worked', words: `a real ${direction}` };
+    const wrongWay = direction === 'increase' ? stat <= -z : stat >= z;
+    return { verdict: 'didnt', words: wrongWay ? 'it moved the wrong way' : 'no real change' };
+}
+/**
+ * Daily values of the days that had volume.
+ *
+ * @param m - Measurement
+ * @returns Values
+ */
+function dailyValues(m) {
+    return m.days.filter((d) => d.volume > 0 && d.value !== null && Number.isFinite(d.value)).map((d) => d.value);
+}
+/**
+ * Mean and sample variance.
+ *
+ * @param xs - Values (at least 2)
+ * @returns Mean and variance
+ */
+function meanVar(xs) {
+    const mean = xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length;
+    const variance = xs.reduce((a, b) => a + (b - mean) ** 2, 0) / Math.max(1, xs.length - 1);
+    return { mean, variance };
+}
+/**
+ * Label a measured experiment.
+ *
+ * @param measure - What was measured
+ * @param direction - Which way the hypothesis says it moves
+ * @param baseline - Baseline window
+ * @param result - Observation window
+ * @returns Verdict, one-line reason and the statistic
+ */
+export function decideVerdict(measure, direction, baseline, result) {
+    const C = EXPERIMENT_CONSTANTS;
+    if (measure === 'ctr') {
+        const n1 = baseline.impressions ?? baseline.volume;
+        const n2 = result.impressions ?? result.volume;
+        const c1 = baseline.clicks ?? 0;
+        const c2 = result.clicks ?? 0;
+        const head = `CTR ${formatValue(n1 ? c1 / n1 : null, measure)} → ${formatValue(n2 ? c2 / n2 : null, measure)}`;
+        const lift = liftOf(n1 ? c1 / n1 : null, n2 ? c2 / n2 : null);
+        if (n1 < C.MIN_IMPRESSIONS_PER_WINDOW || n2 < C.MIN_IMPRESSIONS_PER_WINDOW || c1 + c2 < C.MIN_CTR_CLICKS) {
+            return {
+                verdict: 'inconclusive',
+                reason: `${head}: too little data (${n1} / ${n2} impressions, ${c1 + c2} clicks; need ${C.MIN_IMPRESSIONS_PER_WINDOW} impressions per window and ${C.MIN_CTR_CLICKS} clicks)`,
+                lift,
+            };
+        }
+        const p = (c1 + c2) / (n1 + n2);
+        const se = Math.sqrt(p * (1 - p) * (1 / n1 + 1 / n2));
+        const stat = se > 0 ? (c2 / n2 - c1 / n1) / se : 0;
+        const j = judge(stat, direction);
+        return { verdict: j.verdict, reason: `${head}${liftText(lift)}, z = ${stat.toFixed(2)}: ${j.words}`, statistic: stat, lift };
+    }
+    if (measure === 'position') {
+        const a = dailyValues(baseline);
+        const b = dailyValues(result);
+        const head = `Average position ${formatValue(baseline.total, measure)} → ${formatValue(result.total, measure)}`;
+        const lift = liftOf(baseline.total, result.total);
+        const imps1 = baseline.impressions ?? baseline.volume;
+        const imps2 = result.impressions ?? result.volume;
+        if (a.length < C.MIN_POSITION_DAYS || b.length < C.MIN_POSITION_DAYS || imps1 < C.MIN_IMPRESSIONS_PER_WINDOW || imps2 < C.MIN_IMPRESSIONS_PER_WINDOW) {
+            return {
+                verdict: 'inconclusive',
+                reason: `${head}: too little data (${a.length} / ${b.length} days with impressions, ${imps1} / ${imps2} impressions; need ${C.MIN_POSITION_DAYS} days and ${C.MIN_IMPRESSIONS_PER_WINDOW} impressions per window)`,
+                lift,
+            };
+        }
+        const s1 = meanVar(a);
+        const s2 = meanVar(b);
+        const se = Math.sqrt(s1.variance / a.length + s2.variance / b.length);
+        const diff = s2.mean - s1.mean;
+        const stat = se > 0 ? diff / se : diff === 0 ? 0 : Math.sign(diff) * Infinity;
+        const j = judge(stat, direction);
+        const statText = Number.isFinite(stat) ? stat.toFixed(2) : stat > 0 ? '∞' : '−∞';
+        return { verdict: j.verdict, reason: `${head}, t = ${statText}: ${j.words}`, statistic: stat, lift };
+    }
+    // Counts: clicks, impressions, sessions, events.
+    const a = baseline.total ?? 0;
+    const b = result.total ?? 0;
+    const min = C.MIN_COUNT_VOLUME[measure] ?? 0;
+    const head = `${measure} ${formatValue(a, measure)} → ${formatValue(b, measure)}`;
+    const lift = liftOf(a, b);
+    if (a + b < min) {
+        return { verdict: 'inconclusive', reason: `${head}: too little data (${a + b} across both windows; need ${min})`, lift };
+    }
+    const stat = (b - a) / Math.sqrt(a + b);
+    const j = judge(stat, direction);
+    return { verdict: j.verdict, reason: `${head}${liftText(lift)}, z = ${stat.toFixed(2)}: ${j.words}`, statistic: stat, lift };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=experiment-verdict.js.map

package/dist/backend/backend/src/services/experiments/experiment-verdict.js.map

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package/dist/backend/backend/src/services/experiments/experiment.service.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,301 @@
+/**
+ * Experiment cards (issue #986, epic #982).
+ *
+ * An optimisation ticket carries an experiment: a hypothesis ("change X →
+ * metric Y from a to b"), a metric (Search Console / GA4 through the seo-ops
+ * skill), a baseline captured when the change ships and an observation
+ * window (default 14 days). When the window has settled the harness fetches
+ * the metric, labels the result worked / didn't / inconclusive (simple
+ * significance rules plus a minimum volume, see experiment-verdict.ts),
+ * resolves the agent's prediction, appends the result to the wiki
+ * experiment log and tells the owner.
+ *
+ * The experiment is a trace root: `traceId` (`exp:EXP-n`) names the run, and
+ * the timeline records every step (created, shipped, baseline, each fetch
+ * failure, measured, logged, reported), so the whole run can be reviewed.
+ *
+ * State: `~/.crewly/experiments.json`. A tick (every 15 min) moves
+ * experiments forward, so restarts lose nothing.
+ *
+ * specs/experiment-cards.md
+ *
+ * @module services/experiments/experiment.service
+ */
+import { type ComponentLogger } from '../core/logger.service.js';
+import { type Experiment, type ExperimentMetric, type ExperimentStatus, type ExperimentTicketLink } from '../../types/experiment.types.js';
+import type { MetricFetcher } from './seo-ops-metric.fetcher.js';
+/** A notice for the owner (same shape as the ticket autopilot's). */
+export interface ExperimentOwnerNotice {
+    title: string;
+    message: string;
+    urgent: boolean;
+}
+/** The prediction calls the service makes (record-prediction / resolve-prediction). */
+export interface ExperimentPredictions {
+    make(session: string, statement: string, confidence: number, resolveBy: string): Promise<{
+        id: string;
+    }>;
+    resolve(session: string, id: string, outcome: string, accurate: boolean): Promise<unknown>;
+}
+/** Dependencies. */
+export interface ExperimentServiceDeps {
+    /** JSON store */
+    storeFile: string;
+    /** Fetch a metric over a window (seo-ops) */
+    fetchMetric: MetricFetcher;
+    /** When the linked ticket shipped (ISO), or null while it has not */
+    ticketShippedAt?: (link: ExperimentTicketLink) => Promise<string | null>;
+    /** Note the experiment on its ticket (best effort) */
+    noteOnTicket?: (link: ExperimentTicketLink, note: string) => Promise<void>;
+    predictions?: ExperimentPredictions;
+    /** Append a result to the wiki experiment log; false = not written (no vault) */
+    writeLog?: (experiment: Experiment, entry: string) => Promise<boolean>;
+    /** Tell the owner; false = not sent (Slack not connected) */
+    notifyOwner?: (notice: ExperimentOwnerNotice) => Promise<boolean>;
+    /** Does a file exist (the seo-ops config) */
+    fileExists?: (file: string) => Promise<boolean>;
+    now?: () => Date;
+    logger?: ComponentLogger;
+}
+/** Input of {@link ExperimentService.create}. */
+export interface CreateExperimentInput {
+    title?: unknown;
+    hypothesis?: unknown;
+    direction?: unknown;
+    expected?: unknown;
+    metric?: unknown;
+    windowDays?: unknown;
+    ticket?: unknown;
+    confidence?: unknown;
+}
+/** An error with an HTTP status. */
+export declare class ExperimentError extends Error {
+    readonly status: number;
+    /**
+     * @param status - HTTP status
+     * @param message - What went wrong
+     */
+    constructor(status: number, message: string);
+}
+/**
+ * Validate a metric definition.
+ *
+ * @param raw - Body
+ * @returns Metric
+ * @throws ExperimentError(400) with what is wrong
+ */
+export declare function validateMetric(raw: unknown): ExperimentMetric;
+/**
+ * Validate a ticket link.
+ *
+ * @param raw - Body
+ * @returns Link or undefined
+ * @throws ExperimentError(400)
+ */
+export declare function validateTicketLink(raw: unknown): ExperimentTicketLink | undefined;
+/**
+ * How a ticket link reads.
+ *
+ * @param link - Link
+ * @returns e.g. "ce-site/T-12" or "TKT-40"
+ */
+export declare function ticketLabel(link: ExperimentTicketLink): string;
+/**
+ * The metric as one line.
+ *
+ * @param m - Metric
+ * @returns e.g. "gsc clicks · page https://… · query visa"
+ */
+export declare function metricLabel(m: ExperimentMetric): string;
+/**
+ * The result as markdown (wiki log entry and owner message share it).
+ *
+ * @param e - A measured experiment
+ * @returns Markdown
+ */
+export declare function resultSummary(e: Experiment): string;
+/**
+ * Experiment cards: store, lifecycle and the measuring tick.
+ */
+export declare class ExperimentService {
+    private readonly deps;
+    private static instance;
+    private readonly logger;
+    private readonly now;
+    private chain;
+    private timer;
+    /** A tick is running (fetches can be slow; ticks never overlap) */
+    private ticking;
+    /**
+     * @param deps - Dependencies
+     */
+    constructor(deps: ExperimentServiceDeps);
+    /**
+     * The installed service (null before boot).
+     *
+     * @returns Service or null
+     */
+    static getInstance(): ExperimentService | null;
+    /**
+     * Install the process service.
+     *
+     * @param service - Service, or null to clear
+     */
+    static setInstance(service: ExperimentService | null): void;
+    /**
+     * Start the periodic tick (runs once right away).
+     *
+     * @param intervalMs - Interval (0 = no timer; tests call {@link tick})
+     */
+    start(intervalMs?: number): void;
+    /** Stop the tick. */
+    stop(): void;
+    /**
+     * Run one store operation at a time.
+     *
+     * @param fn - Operation
+     * @returns Its result
+     */
+    private serial;
+    /**
+     * Read the store.
+     *
+     * @returns Store data (empty when missing)
+     */
+    private load;
+    /**
+     * Write the store atomically.
+     *
+     * @param data - Store data
+     */
+    private save;
+    /**
+     * Load, change one experiment, save.
+     *
+     * @param id - Experiment id
+     * @param fn - Change (mutates the experiment)
+     * @returns The experiment after the change
+     * @throws ExperimentError(404) when not found
+     */
+    private mutate;
+    /**
+     * Add a timeline entry.
+     *
+     * @param e - Experiment
+     * @param event - Event name
+     * @param detail - Optional detail
+     */
+    private record;
+    /**
+     * All experiments, newest first.
+     *
+     * @param filter - Optional status / ticket filter
+     * @returns Experiments
+     */
+    list(filter?: {
+        status?: string;
+        ticket?: string;
+    }): Promise<Experiment[]>;
+    /**
+     * One experiment.
+     *
+     * @param id - EXP-n
+     * @returns Experiment or null
+     */
+    get(id: string): Promise<Experiment | null>;
+    /**
+     * Create an experiment card.
+     *
+     * @param input - Hypothesis, metric, window, ticket, confidence
+     * @param caller - Agent session, or `owner`
+     * @returns The new experiment (status planned)
+     * @throws ExperimentError(400) on invalid input
+     */
+    create(input: CreateExperimentInput, caller: string): Promise<Experiment>;
+    /**
+     * Mark an experiment shipped: fix its windows, record the prediction and
+     * capture the baseline.
+     *
+     * @param id - EXP-n
+     * @param caller - Who shipped it
+     * @param shippedAt - When it went live (default now; not in the future)
+     * @returns The experiment
+     * @throws ExperimentError(404 / 409 / 400)
+     */
+    ship(id: string, caller: string, shippedAt?: string): Promise<Experiment>;
+    /**
+     * Cancel an experiment that has not been measured.
+     *
+     * @param id - EXP-n
+     * @param caller - Who
+     * @param reason - Why
+     * @returns The experiment
+     * @throws ExperimentError(404 / 409)
+     */
+    cancel(id: string, caller: string, reason?: string): Promise<Experiment>;
+    /**
+     * Measure a due experiment now (instead of waiting for the tick).
+     *
+     * @param id - EXP-n
+     * @returns The experiment
+     * @throws ExperimentError(404 / 409) when it is not running or not yet due
+     */
+    measureNow(id: string): Promise<Experiment>;
+    /**
+     * Move every experiment forward: ship planned ones whose ticket shipped,
+     * retry missing baselines, measure due ones, finish follow-ups.
+     *
+     * @returns Counts of what happened (zeros when a tick is already running)
+     */
+    tick(): Promise<{
+        shipped: number;
+        measured: number;
+    }>;
+    /**
+     * One pass over all experiments (see {@link tick}).
+     *
+     * @returns Counts of what happened
+     */
+    private runTick;
+    /**
+     * Record the creating agent's prediction that the hypothesis holds.
+     *
+     * @param id - EXP-n
+     */
+    private recordPrediction;
+    /**
+     * A fetch failed: count it, and tell the owner once when it keeps failing.
+     *
+     * @param id - EXP-n
+     * @param step - baseline / result
+     * @param err - The error
+     */
+    private fetchFailed;
+    /**
+     * Fetch the baseline window.
+     *
+     * @param id - EXP-n
+     */
+    private captureBaseline;
+    /**
+     * Fetch the observation window and label the result.
+     *
+     * @param id - EXP-n
+     */
+    private measure;
+    /**
+     * After a result: resolve the prediction, write the wiki log, tell the
+     * owner. Each step is retried by later ticks until it lands.
+     *
+     * @param id - EXP-n
+     */
+    private followUp;
+}
+/**
+ * Is this a status filter value?
+ *
+ * @param v - Query value
+ * @returns The status or undefined
+ */
+export declare function statusFilter(v: unknown): ExperimentStatus | undefined;
+//# sourceMappingURL=experiment.service.d.ts.map

package/dist/backend/backend/src/services/experiments/experiment.service.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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