create-prediction-market-agent 1.0.0

package/LICENSE

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+MIT License
+
+Copyright (c) 2026 SimpleFunctions
+
+Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
+of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
+in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
+to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
+copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
+furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
+
+The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
+copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+
+THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
+AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
+LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
+OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
+SOFTWARE.

package/README.md

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+# create-prediction-market-agent
+
+Scaffold a prediction market agent project powered by [SimpleFunctions](https://simplefunctions.dev).
+
+## Usage
+
+```bash
+npx create-prediction-market-agent my-agent
+```
+
+## Templates
+
+| Template | Language | What you get |
+|----------|----------|-------------|
+| Vanilla TypeScript | TypeScript | Minimal agent using REST API directly |
+| LangChain | Python | LangChain agent with 4 prediction market tools |
+| CrewAI | Python | Multi-agent crew (analyst + risk researcher) |
+| MCP Agent | TypeScript | MCP-connected agent for Claude Code / Cursor |
+
+## What's included
+
+Every template comes pre-configured with:
+- SimpleFunctions API integration (no auth needed for public endpoints)
+- World state access (real-time probabilities from 9,706 markets)
+- Market search (Kalshi + Polymarket)
+- Trade ideas (conviction-scored)
+- README with setup instructions
+- `.gitignore`
+
+## SimpleFunctions
+
+SimpleFunctions gives AI agents access to calibrated world state from prediction markets. 38 MCP tools, 43 CLI commands, REST API.
+
+```bash
+# MCP — one command
+claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp
+
+# CLI — 43 commands
+npm i -g @spfunctions/cli && sf agent
+
+# REST — instant data
+curl https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world
+```
+
+## License
+
+MIT
+
+---
+
+**Part of [SimpleFunctions](https://simplefunctions.dev)** — context flow for prediction markets.
+
+- [Awesome Prediction Markets](https://github.com/spfunctions/awesome-prediction-markets) — curated list for developers
+- [CLI](https://github.com/spfunctions/simplefunctions-cli) — 43 commands for prediction market intelligence
+- [Docs](https://simplefunctions.dev/docs) — full documentation

package/index.mjs

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+#!/usr/bin/env node
+
+import { writeFileSync, mkdirSync, existsSync } from 'fs'
+import { join, basename } from 'path'
+import { createInterface } from 'readline'
+
+const rl = createInterface({ input: process.stdin, output: process.stdout })
+const ask = (q) => new Promise((r) => rl.question(q, r))
+
+const TEMPLATES = {
+  typescript: {
+    name: 'Vanilla TypeScript',
+    files: {
+      'package.json': (name) => JSON.stringify({
+        name,
+        version: '0.1.0',
+        type: 'module',
+        scripts: { start: 'npx tsx agent.ts', dev: 'npx tsx --watch agent.ts' },
+        dependencies: { '@spfunctions/cli': 'latest' },
+        devDependencies: { tsx: 'latest', typescript: 'latest' },
+      }, null, 2),
+      'agent.ts': () => `/**
+ * Prediction Market Agent — powered by SimpleFunctions
+ * Run: npm start
+ */
+
+const BASE = 'https://simplefunctions.dev'
+
+async function main() {
+  // 1. Get the world state — what's happening right now
+  const world = await fetch(\`\${BASE}/api/agent/world\`).then(r => r.text())
+  console.log('=== World State ===')
+  console.log(world)
+
+  // 2. Search for markets on a topic
+  const markets = await fetch(\`\${BASE}/api/public/scan?q=oil\`).then(r => r.json())
+  console.log('\\n=== Oil Markets ===')
+  for (const m of (markets.results || []).slice(0, 5)) {
+    console.log(\`  \${m.title}: \${m.yesPrice}c (\${m.venue})\`)
+  }
+
+  // 3. Get trade ideas
+  const ideas = await fetch(\`\${BASE}/api/public/ideas\`).then(r => r.json())
+  const list = Array.isArray(ideas) ? ideas : ideas.ideas || []
+  if (list.length) {
+    console.log('\\n=== Trade Ideas ===')
+    for (const idea of list.slice(0, 3)) {
+      console.log(\`  [\${idea.conviction?.toUpperCase()}] \${idea.headline}\`)
+    }
+  }
+}
+
+main().catch(console.error)
+`,
+      'tsconfig.json': () => JSON.stringify({
+        compilerOptions: { target: 'ES2022', module: 'ESNext', moduleResolution: 'bundler', strict: true, esModuleInterop: true },
+        include: ['*.ts'],
+      }, null, 2),
+    },
+  },
+  langchain: {
+    name: 'LangChain (Python)',
+    files: {
+      'requirements.txt': () => `langchain>=0.3
+langchain-openai>=0.3
+requests>=2.31
+`,
+      'agent.py': () => `"""
+Prediction Market Agent — LangChain + SimpleFunctions
+Run: pip install -r requirements.txt && python agent.py
+"""
+
+import os
+import requests
+from langchain.tools import tool
+from langchain_openai import ChatOpenAI
+from langchain.agents import AgentExecutor, create_openai_tools_agent
+from langchain_core.prompts import ChatPromptTemplate, MessagesPlaceholder
+
+BASE = "https://simplefunctions.dev"
+
+@tool
+def world_state() -> str:
+    """Get real-time world state from prediction markets. ~800 tokens of calibrated probabilities."""
+    return requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/agent/world").text
+
+@tool
+def scan_markets(query: str) -> str:
+    """Search prediction markets (Kalshi + Polymarket) by keyword."""
+    r = requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/public/scan", params={"q": query})
+    return r.text
+
+@tool
+def get_trade_ideas() -> str:
+    """Get conviction-scored trade ideas from prediction market data."""
+    return requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/public/ideas").text
+
+@tool
+def get_market_detail(ticker: str) -> str:
+    """Get detailed info for a specific market ticker."""
+    return requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/public/market/{ticker}?depth=true").text
+
+tools = [world_state, scan_markets, get_trade_ideas, get_market_detail]
+
+prompt = ChatPromptTemplate.from_messages([
+    ("system", "You are a prediction market analyst. Use your tools to answer questions about world events, probabilities, and trading opportunities. Always cite specific market prices."),
+    MessagesPlaceholder("chat_history", optional=True),
+    ("human", "{input}"),
+    MessagesPlaceholder("agent_scratchpad"),
+])
+
+llm = ChatOpenAI(model="gpt-4o", temperature=0)
+agent = create_openai_tools_agent(llm, tools, prompt)
+executor = AgentExecutor(agent=agent, tools=tools, verbose=True)
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    result = executor.invoke({"input": "What are the highest-conviction trade ideas right now? Check the world state first."})
+    print("\\n" + result["output"])
+`,
+      '.env.example': () => `OPENAI_API_KEY=sk-...
+# Optional: SimpleFunctions API key for thesis features
+# SF_API_KEY=sf_live_...
+`,
+    },
+  },
+  crewai: {
+    name: 'CrewAI (Python)',
+    files: {
+      'requirements.txt': () => `crewai>=0.80
+crewai-tools>=0.14
+requests>=2.31
+`,
+      'crew.py': () => `"""
+Prediction Market Crew — CrewAI + SimpleFunctions
+Run: pip install -r requirements.txt && python crew.py
+"""
+
+import requests
+from crewai import Agent, Task, Crew
+from crewai_tools import tool
+
+BASE = "https://simplefunctions.dev"
+
+@tool("World State")
+def world_state() -> str:
+    """Get real-time world state from 9,706 prediction markets."""
+    return requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/agent/world").text
+
+@tool("Scan Markets")
+def scan_markets(query: str) -> str:
+    """Search Kalshi + Polymarket by keyword."""
+    return requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/public/scan", params={"q": query}).text
+
+@tool("Trade Ideas")
+def get_trade_ideas() -> str:
+    """Get conviction-scored trade ideas."""
+    return requests.get(f"{BASE}/api/public/ideas").text
+
+analyst = Agent(
+    role="Prediction Market Analyst",
+    goal="Identify the highest-conviction trading opportunities from prediction market data",
+    backstory="Senior analyst at a macro fund. Uses prediction market probabilities as leading indicators.",
+    tools=[world_state, scan_markets, get_trade_ideas],
+    verbose=True,
+)
+
+researcher = Agent(
+    role="Risk Researcher",
+    goal="Identify risks and counter-arguments for proposed trades",
+    backstory="Former risk manager. Always asks: what could go wrong?",
+    tools=[world_state, scan_markets],
+    verbose=True,
+)
+
+find_edges = Task(
+    description="Check the world state, then find the top 3 trade ideas. For each, scan related markets for confirmation.",
+    expected_output="3 trade recommendations with market evidence",
+    agent=analyst,
+)
+
+check_risks = Task(
+    description="For each trade recommendation, identify the top risk. Search for markets that would profit if the trade goes wrong.",
+    expected_output="Risk assessment for each trade",
+    agent=researcher,
+)
+
+crew = Crew(agents=[analyst, researcher], tasks=[find_edges, check_risks], verbose=True)
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    result = crew.kickoff()
+    print("\\n=== Final Output ===")
+    print(result)
+`,
+      '.env.example': () => `OPENAI_API_KEY=sk-...
+`,
+    },
+  },
+  mcp: {
+    name: 'MCP Agent (TypeScript)',
+    files: {
+      'package.json': (name) => JSON.stringify({
+        name,
+        version: '0.1.0',
+        type: 'module',
+        scripts: { start: 'npx tsx agent.ts' },
+        devDependencies: { tsx: 'latest', typescript: 'latest' },
+      }, null, 2),
+      'agent.ts': () => `/**
+ * MCP-connected Prediction Market Agent
+ *
+ * This agent connects to SimpleFunctions via MCP.
+ * For Claude Code: claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp
+ * For Cursor: add to .cursor/mcp.json
+ *
+ * This file demonstrates the REST API equivalent for custom agents.
+ */
+
+const BASE = 'https://simplefunctions.dev'
+
+// These match the 38 MCP tools available via SimpleFunctions
+const tools = {
+  world: () => fetch(\`\${BASE}/api/agent/world\`).then(r => r.text()),
+  delta: (since: string) => fetch(\`\${BASE}/api/agent/world/delta?since=\${since}\`).then(r => r.text()),
+  scan: (q: string) => fetch(\`\${BASE}/api/public/scan?q=\${encodeURIComponent(q)}\`).then(r => r.json()),
+  ideas: () => fetch(\`\${BASE}/api/public/ideas\`).then(r => r.json()),
+  index: () => fetch(\`\${BASE}/api/public/index\`).then(r => r.json()),
+  contagion: (window = '6h') => fetch(\`\${BASE}/api/public/contagion?window=\${window}\`).then(r => r.json()),
+  market: (ticker: string) => fetch(\`\${BASE}/api/public/market/\${ticker}?depth=true\`).then(r => r.json()),
+}
+
+async function main() {
+  console.log(await tools.world())
+  console.log('\\n=== SF Index ===')
+  const idx = await tools.index()
+  console.log(\`Uncertainty: \${idx.index?.uncertainty} | Geo Risk: \${idx.index?.geopolitical} | Momentum: \${idx.index?.momentum}\`)
+}
+
+main().catch(console.error)
+`,
+      '.cursor/mcp.json': () => JSON.stringify({
+        mcpServers: {
+          simplefunctions: { url: 'https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp' },
+        },
+      }, null, 2),
+      'tsconfig.json': () => JSON.stringify({
+        compilerOptions: { target: 'ES2022', module: 'ESNext', moduleResolution: 'bundler', strict: true, esModuleInterop: true },
+        include: ['*.ts'],
+      }, null, 2),
+    },
+  },
+}
+
+async function main() {
+  console.log()
+  console.log('  create-prediction-market-agent')
+  console.log('  Scaffold a prediction market agent project powered by SimpleFunctions')
+  console.log()
+
+  const dirArg = process.argv[2]
+  const dir = dirArg || await ask('  Project name: ')
+  if (!dir) { console.log('  Cancelled.'); process.exit(0) }
+
+  console.log()
+  console.log('  Templates:')
+  const keys = Object.keys(TEMPLATES)
+  keys.forEach((k, i) => console.log(`    ${i + 1}) ${TEMPLATES[k].name}`))
+  console.log()
+
+  const choice = await ask(`  Choose template (1-${keys.length}) [1]: `)
+  const idx = Math.max(0, Math.min(keys.length - 1, parseInt(choice || '1', 10) - 1))
+  const template = TEMPLATES[keys[idx]]
+
+  const targetDir = join(process.cwd(), dir)
+  if (existsSync(targetDir)) {
+    console.log(`\n  Error: ${dir} already exists.`)
+    process.exit(1)
+  }
+
+  mkdirSync(targetDir, { recursive: true })
+
+  for (const [file, gen] of Object.entries(template.files)) {
+    const filePath = join(targetDir, file)
+    const fileDir = join(filePath, '..')
+    mkdirSync(fileDir, { recursive: true })
+    writeFileSync(filePath, gen(basename(dir)))
+  }
+
+  // Always add README
+  writeFileSync(join(targetDir, 'README.md'), `# ${basename(dir)}
+
+Prediction market agent powered by [SimpleFunctions](https://simplefunctions.dev).
+
+## Setup
+
+${keys[idx] === 'langchain' || keys[idx] === 'crewai'
+    ? '```bash\npip install -r requirements.txt\ncp .env.example .env  # add your API keys\npython ' + (keys[idx] === 'crewai' ? 'crew' : 'agent') + '.py\n```'
+    : '```bash\nnpm install\nnpm start\n```'}
+
+## SimpleFunctions MCP
+
+Connect Claude Code or Cursor directly:
+
+\`\`\`bash
+claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp
+\`\`\`
+
+## Resources
+
+- [SimpleFunctions Docs](https://simplefunctions.dev/docs)
+- [Agent Guide](https://simplefunctions.dev/docs/guide)
+- [Awesome Prediction Markets](https://github.com/spfunctions/awesome-prediction-markets)
+`)
+
+  // Always add .gitignore
+  writeFileSync(join(targetDir, '.gitignore'), `node_modules/
+.env
+__pycache__/
+*.pyc
+dist/
+`)
+
+  console.log()
+  console.log(`  Created ${basename(dir)}/ with ${template.name} template`)
+  console.log()
+  console.log(`  cd ${dir}`)
+  if (keys[idx] === 'langchain' || keys[idx] === 'crewai') {
+    console.log('  pip install -r requirements.txt')
+    console.log(`  python ${keys[idx] === 'crewai' ? 'crew' : 'agent'}.py`)
+  } else {
+    console.log('  npm install')
+    console.log('  npm start')
+  }
+  console.log()
+
+  rl.close()
+}
+
+main().catch((e) => { console.error(e); process.exit(1) })

package/package.json

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+{
+  "name": "create-prediction-market-agent",
+  "version": "1.0.0",
+  "description": "Scaffold a prediction market agent project. LangChain, CrewAI, OpenAI Agents SDK, or vanilla TypeScript. Powered by SimpleFunctions.",
+  "bin": {
+    "create-prediction-market-agent": "./index.mjs"
+  },
+  "keywords": [
+    "create", "scaffold", "prediction-market", "prediction-market-agent",
+    "ai-agent", "langchain", "crewai", "openai-agents", "mcp",
+    "kalshi", "polymarket", "trading-bot", "world-state"
+  ],
+  "license": "MIT",
+  "repository": {
+    "type": "git",
+    "url": "https://github.com/spfunctions/create-prediction-market-agent"
+  },
+  "homepage": "https://simplefunctions.dev"
+}