clodds 1.2.9 → 1.4.0

package/dist/skills/bundled/analytics/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,252 @@
+---
+name: analytics
+description: "Performance attribution, trade analytics, and strategy optimization"
+emoji: "📊"
+---
+
+# Analytics - Complete API Reference
+
+Analyze trading performance with attribution by edge source, time-of-day analysis, and optimization insights.
+
+---
+
+## Chat Commands
+
+### Performance Overview
+
+```
+/analytics                          Performance summary
+/analytics today                    Today's performance
+/analytics week                     Weekly breakdown
+/analytics month                    Monthly breakdown
+```
+
+### Attribution
+
+```
+/analytics attribution              P&L by edge source
+/analytics by-platform              P&L by platform
+/analytics by-category              P&L by market category
+/analytics by-strategy              P&L by strategy
+```
+
+### Time Analysis
+
+```
+/analytics best-times               Best trading hours
+/analytics by-hour                  Hourly performance
+/analytics by-day                   Day of week analysis
+```
+
+### Edge Analysis
+
+```
+/analytics edge-decay               How edge decays over time
+/analytics edge-buckets             Performance by edge size
+/analytics liquidity                Performance by liquidity
+```
+
+---
+
+## TypeScript API Reference
+
+### Create Analytics Service
+
+```typescript
+import { createAnalyticsService } from 'clodds/analytics';
+
+const analytics = createAnalyticsService({
+  // Data source
+  tradesDb: './trades.db',
+
+  // Time zone
+  timezone: 'America/New_York',
+});
+```
+
+### Performance Summary
+
+```typescript
+const summary = await analytics.getSummary({
+  period: 'month',
+  // or: from: '2024-01-01', to: '2024-01-31'
+});
+
+console.log('=== Performance ===');
+console.log(`Total P&L: $${summary.totalPnl}`);
+console.log(`Win Rate: ${summary.winRate}%`);
+console.log(`Profit Factor: ${summary.profitFactor}`);
+console.log(`Sharpe Ratio: ${summary.sharpeRatio}`);
+console.log(`Total Trades: ${summary.totalTrades}`);
+console.log(`Avg Trade: $${summary.avgTrade}`);
+console.log(`Best Trade: $${summary.bestTrade}`);
+console.log(`Worst Trade: $${summary.worstTrade}`);
+```
+
+### Attribution by Edge Source
+
+```typescript
+const attribution = await analytics.getAttribution('edgeSource');
+
+for (const source of attribution) {
+  console.log(`${source.name}:`);
+  console.log(`  P&L: $${source.pnl}`);
+  console.log(`  Trades: ${source.trades}`);
+  console.log(`  Win Rate: ${source.winRate}%`);
+  console.log(`  Contribution: ${source.contribution}%`);
+}
+
+// Example sources:
+// - price_lag (stale prices)
+// - liquidity_gap (thin orderbooks)
+// - information (news/events)
+// - model_edge (external models)
+// - combinatorial (arbitrage)
+```
+
+### Time-of-Day Analysis
+
+```typescript
+const hourly = await analytics.getHourlyPerformance();
+
+console.log('Best Hours:');
+for (const hour of hourly.slice(0, 3)) {
+  console.log(`  ${hour.hour}:00 - Win: ${hour.winRate}%, Avg: $${hour.avgPnl}`);
+}
+
+console.log('Worst Hours:');
+for (const hour of hourly.slice(-3)) {
+  console.log(`  ${hour.hour}:00 - Win: ${hour.winRate}%, Avg: $${hour.avgPnl}`);
+}
+```
+
+### Day-of-Week Analysis
+
+```typescript
+const daily = await analytics.getDayOfWeekPerformance();
+
+for (const day of daily) {
+  console.log(`${day.name}: $${day.pnl} (${day.trades} trades, ${day.winRate}% win)`);
+}
+```
+
+### Edge Decay Analysis
+
+```typescript
+const decay = await analytics.getEdgeDecay();
+
+console.log('Edge Decay (how fast edge disappears):');
+for (const bucket of decay) {
+  console.log(`  ${bucket.holdTime}: ${bucket.avgReturn}% return`);
+}
+// Shows optimal hold time before edge decays
+```
+
+### Edge Size Buckets
+
+```typescript
+const edgeBuckets = await analytics.getEdgeBuckets();
+
+for (const bucket of edgeBuckets) {
+  console.log(`Edge ${bucket.min}-${bucket.max}%:`);
+  console.log(`  Trades: ${bucket.trades}`);
+  console.log(`  Win Rate: ${bucket.winRate}%`);
+  console.log(`  Avg P&L: $${bucket.avgPnl}`);
+  console.log(`  Realized Edge: ${bucket.realizedEdge}%`);
+}
+```
+
+### Liquidity Analysis
+
+```typescript
+const liquidity = await analytics.getLiquidityAnalysis();
+
+for (const bucket of liquidity) {
+  console.log(`${bucket.name} liquidity:`);
+  console.log(`  Trades: ${bucket.trades}`);
+  console.log(`  Avg Slippage: ${bucket.avgSlippage}%`);
+  console.log(`  Fill Rate: ${bucket.fillRate}%`);
+  console.log(`  Avg P&L: $${bucket.avgPnl}`);
+}
+```
+
+### Execution Quality
+
+```typescript
+const execution = await analytics.getExecutionQuality();
+
+console.log('=== Execution Quality ===');
+console.log(`Avg Slippage: ${execution.avgSlippage}%`);
+console.log(`Fill Rate: ${execution.fillRate}%`);
+console.log(`Avg Fill Time: ${execution.avgFillTimeMs}ms`);
+console.log(`Partial Fills: ${execution.partialFillRate}%`);
+console.log(`Rejected Orders: ${execution.rejectionRate}%`);
+```
+
+### Platform Comparison
+
+```typescript
+const platforms = await analytics.getPlatformComparison();
+
+for (const platform of platforms) {
+  console.log(`${platform.name}:`);
+  console.log(`  P&L: $${platform.pnl}`);
+  console.log(`  Win Rate: ${platform.winRate}%`);
+  console.log(`  Avg Slippage: ${platform.avgSlippage}%`);
+  console.log(`  Best For: ${platform.strengths.join(', ')}`);
+}
+```
+
+### Export Report
+
+```typescript
+// Generate PDF report
+await analytics.exportReport({
+  format: 'pdf',
+  period: 'month',
+  include: ['summary', 'attribution', 'charts'],
+  outputPath: './reports/january-2024.pdf',
+});
+
+// Export raw data
+await analytics.exportData({
+  format: 'csv',
+  period: 'month',
+  outputPath: './data/january-trades.csv',
+});
+```
+
+---
+
+## Attribution Categories
+
+| Category | Description |
+|----------|-------------|
+| **Edge Source** | Where the edge came from |
+| **Platform** | Which platform traded on |
+| **Category** | Market category (politics, crypto) |
+| **Strategy** | Which strategy generated trade |
+| **Time** | Hour/day of trade |
+| **Size** | Trade size bucket |
+
+---
+
+## Key Metrics
+
+| Metric | Good Value | Description |
+|--------|------------|-------------|
+| **Win Rate** | > 50% | Percent of winning trades |
+| **Profit Factor** | > 1.5 | Gross profit / gross loss |
+| **Sharpe Ratio** | > 1.0 | Risk-adjusted returns |
+| **Realized Edge** | > 0 | Actual vs expected edge |
+| **Fill Rate** | > 95% | Orders fully filled |
+
+---
+
+## Best Practices
+
+1. **Review weekly** — Catch problems early
+2. **Track attribution** — Know where profits come from
+3. **Optimize timing** — Trade your best hours
+4. **Monitor edge decay** — Don't hold too long
+5. **Check execution** — Slippage kills edge

package/dist/skills/bundled/analytics/index.js

@@ -91,8 +91,8 @@ async function execute(args) {
                 return helpText();
         }
     }
-    catch {
-        return helpText();
+    catch (error) {
+        return `Error: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}`;
     }
 }
 function helpText() {

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package/dist/skills/bundled/arbitrage/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,287 @@
+---
+name: arbitrage
+description: "Automated cross-platform arbitrage detection and monitoring"
+emoji: "⚖️"
+gates:
+  envs:
+    anyOf:
+      - POLY_API_KEY
+      - KALSHI_API_KEY
+---
+
+# Arbitrage Service - Complete API Reference
+
+Automated detection and monitoring of arbitrage opportunities across prediction market platforms.
+
+## Supported Platforms
+
+- Polymarket
+- Kalshi
+- Manifold
+- Metaculus
+- PredictIt
+- Drift
+- Betfair
+- Smarkets
+
+---
+
+## Chat Commands
+
+### Monitoring Control
+
+```
+/arb start                                  # Start arbitrage monitoring
+/arb stop                                   # Stop monitoring
+/arb status                                 # Check monitoring status
+/arb config --interval 60                   # Set check interval (seconds)
+```
+
+### Manual Scanning
+
+```
+/arb check                                  # Run one-time scan
+/arb check "election"                       # Scan with keyword
+/arb check --platforms poly,kalshi          # Specific platforms
+```
+
+### Market Comparison
+
+```
+/arb compare <market-a> <market-b>          # Compare two specific markets
+/arb compare poly:12345 kalshi:TRUMP        # By platform:id
+```
+
+### View Opportunities
+
+```
+/arb opportunities                          # List current opportunities
+/arb opportunities --min-spread 2           # Min 2% spread
+/arb opportunities --format table           # Table format
+/arb opportunities --format detailed        # Detailed view
+```
+
+### Market Linking
+
+```
+/arb link <market-a> <market-b>             # Manually link markets
+/arb unlink <market-a> <market-b>           # Remove link
+/arb links                                  # View all links
+/arb auto-match                             # Auto-detect matches
+```
+
+### Statistics
+
+```
+/arb stats                                  # Arbitrage statistics
+/arb stats --period 7d                      # Last 7 days
+/arb history                                # Historical opportunities
+```
+
+---
+
+## TypeScript API Reference
+
+### Create Arbitrage Service
+
+```typescript
+import { createArbitrageService } from 'clodds/arbitrage';
+
+const arbService = createArbitrageService({
+  platforms: ['polymarket', 'kalshi', 'manifold', 'betfair'],
+
+  checkIntervalMs: 30000,    // Check every 30 seconds
+  minSpread: 0.5,            // 0.5% minimum spread
+  minLiquidity: 100,         // $100 minimum
+
+  // Platform credentials
+  polymarket: { apiKey, apiSecret, passphrase },
+  kalshi: { apiKey },
+});
+```
+
+### Start/Stop Monitoring
+
+```typescript
+// Start continuous monitoring
+await arbService.start();
+
+// Event handlers
+arbService.on('arbitrage', (opp) => {
+  console.log(`⚖️ Arbitrage found!`);
+  console.log(`  ${opp.marketA.platform}: ${opp.marketA.price}`);
+  console.log(`  ${opp.marketB.platform}: ${opp.marketB.price}`);
+  console.log(`  Spread: ${opp.spread.toFixed(2)}%`);
+});
+
+arbService.on('arbitrageExpired', (opp) => {
+  console.log(`Arbitrage expired: ${opp.id}`);
+});
+
+// Check status
+const isRunning = arbService.isRunning();
+
+// Stop monitoring
+await arbService.stop();
+```
+
+### One-Time Check
+
+```typescript
+// Run a single scan
+const opportunities = await arbService.checkArbitrage({
+  query: 'trump',
+  platforms: ['polymarket', 'kalshi'],
+  minSpread: 1,
+});
+
+for (const opp of opportunities) {
+  console.log(`${opp.question}`);
+  console.log(`  Buy on ${opp.buyPlatform} @ ${opp.buyPrice}`);
+  console.log(`  Sell on ${opp.sellPlatform} @ ${opp.sellPrice}`);
+  console.log(`  Spread: ${opp.spread.toFixed(2)}%`);
+}
+```
+
+### Compare Specific Markets
+
+```typescript
+// Compare two specific markets
+const comparison = await arbService.compareMarkets(
+  { platform: 'polymarket', id: 'market-123' },
+  { platform: 'kalshi', id: 'TRUMP-WIN' }
+);
+
+if (comparison.hasArbitrage) {
+  console.log(`Arbitrage exists!`);
+  console.log(`  Buy ${comparison.buySide} on ${comparison.buyPlatform}`);
+  console.log(`  Sell ${comparison.sellSide} on ${comparison.sellPlatform}`);
+  console.log(`  Spread: ${comparison.spread.toFixed(2)}%`);
+} else {
+  console.log(`No arbitrage. Price difference: ${comparison.priceDiff.toFixed(2)}%`);
+}
+```
+
+### Market Linking
+
+```typescript
+// Add a manual match
+await arbService.addMatch(
+  { platform: 'polymarket', id: 'market-123', question: 'Will Trump win?' },
+  { platform: 'kalshi', id: 'TRUMP-WIN', question: 'Trump wins 2024' }
+);
+
+// Remove a match
+await arbService.removeMatch('polymarket:market-123', 'kalshi:TRUMP-WIN');
+
+// Auto-detect matches using question similarity
+const autoMatches = await arbService.autoMatchMarkets({
+  minSimilarity: 0.85,
+});
+
+console.log(`Found ${autoMatches.length} auto-matches`);
+```
+
+### Get Opportunities
+
+```typescript
+// Get current opportunities
+const opportunities = await arbService.getOpportunities({
+  minSpread: 1,
+  sortBy: 'spread',  // 'spread' | 'liquidity' | 'confidence'
+});
+
+// Format for display
+const formatted = await arbService.formatOpportunities(opportunities);
+console.log(formatted);
+```
+
+### Statistics
+
+```typescript
+// Get arbitrage statistics
+const stats = await arbService.getStats({
+  period: '30d',
+});
+
+console.log(`Total opportunities: ${stats.totalOpportunities}`);
+console.log(`Avg spread: ${stats.avgSpread.toFixed(2)}%`);
+console.log(`Max spread seen: ${stats.maxSpread.toFixed(2)}%`);
+console.log(`By platform pair:`);
+for (const [pair, count] of Object.entries(stats.byPlatformPair)) {
+  console.log(`  ${pair}: ${count}`);
+}
+```
+
+---
+
+## Arbitrage Types Detected
+
+### 1. Cross-Platform Price Difference
+
+```
+Market: "Trump wins 2024"
+Polymarket YES: 52¢
+Kalshi YES: 55¢
+
+Strategy: Buy Polymarket YES, Sell Kalshi YES
+Spread: 3¢ (5.8%)
+```
+
+### 2. Internal Arbitrage (Rebalancing)
+
+```
+Market: "Will X happen?"
+YES: 45¢
+NO: 52¢
+Total: 97¢
+
+Strategy: Buy both YES and NO
+Guaranteed profit: 3¢ per $1
+```
+
+### 3. Inverse Markets
+
+```
+Market A: "Trump wins" = 55¢
+Market B: "Trump loses" = 48¢
+Total: 103¢ (should be 100¢)
+
+Strategy: Sell both, pocket 3¢
+```
+
+---
+
+## Configuration
+
+```typescript
+arbService.configure({
+  // Scanning
+  checkIntervalMs: 30000,
+  batchSize: 50,
+
+  // Filtering
+  minSpread: 0.5,
+  minLiquidity: 100,
+  minConfidence: 0.7,
+
+  // Matching
+  autoMatchEnabled: true,
+  minMatchSimilarity: 0.85,
+
+  // Alerts
+  alertOnNewArb: true,
+  alertThreshold: 2,  // Alert on 2%+ spreads
+});
+```
+
+---
+
+## Best Practices
+
+1. **Verify matches manually** - Auto-matching can have false positives
+2. **Check liquidity** - Ensure you can actually execute
+3. **Account for fees** - Platform fees reduce spreads
+4. **Move fast** - Arbitrage disappears quickly
+5. **Use limit orders** - Avoid slippage
+6. **Track all outcomes** - Build performance data

package/dist/skills/bundled/arbitrage/index.js

@@ -18,12 +18,17 @@
 Object.defineProperty(exports, "__esModule", { value: true });
 exports.execute = execute;
 const index_1 = require("../../../arbitrage/index");
+const logger_1 = require("../../../utils/logger");
 const help_js_1 = require("../../help.js");
 const errors_js_1 = require("../../errors.js");
 let arbService = null;
 function getService() {
     if (!arbService) {
-        arbService = (0, index_1.createArbitrageService)(new Map());
+        const providers = new Map();
+        // Providers are registered dynamically by the arbitrage service
+        // based on available feed configurations
+        arbService = (0, index_1.createArbitrageService)(providers);
+        logger_1.logger.info({ providerCount: providers.size }, 'Arbitrage service initialized');
     }
     return arbService;
 }

package/dist/skills/bundled/arbitrage/index.js.map

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