clodds 1.2.9 → 1.3.0

package/dist/skills/bundled/trading-manifold/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: trading-manifold
+description: "Place bets on Manifold Markets using their REST API"
+emoji: "🎲"
+gates:
+  envs:
+    - MANIFOLD_API_KEY
+---
+
+# Manifold Markets Trading Skill
+
+Real, working methods to bet on Manifold Markets using Mana (play money that can be donated to charity).
+
+## Setup
+
+Get your API key from: https://manifold.markets/profile (API key section)
+
+```python
+import os
+import requests
+
+API_URL = "https://api.manifold.markets/v0"
+API_KEY = os.getenv("MANIFOLD_API_KEY")
+
+def headers():
+    return {
+        "Authorization": f"Key {API_KEY}",
+        "Content-Type": "application/json"
+    }
+```
+
+## Search Markets
+
+```python
+def search_markets(query: str, limit: int = 10):
+    """Search for markets"""
+    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/search-markets", params={
+        "term": query,
+        "limit": limit,
+        "filter": "open",
+        "sort": "liquidity"
+    })
+    r.raise_for_status()
+    markets = r.json()
+
+    for m in markets[:5]:
+        prob = m.get("probability", 0.5)
+        print(f"\nMarket: {m['question']}")
+        print(f"ID: {m['id']}")
+        print(f"Probability: {prob*100:.1f}%")
+        print(f"URL: {m.get('url', '')}")
+
+    return markets
+
+markets = search_markets("AI")
+```
+
+## Get Market by ID or Slug
+
+```python
+def get_market(id_or_slug: str):
+    """Get market details"""
+    # Try by ID first
+    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/market/{id_or_slug}")
+    if r.status_code == 404:
+        # Try by slug
+        r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/slug/{id_or_slug}")
+
+    r.raise_for_status()
+    return r.json()
+
+market = get_market("will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025")
+print(f"Question: {market['question']}")
+print(f"Probability: {market.get('probability', 0.5)*100:.1f}%")
+```
+
+## Place a Bet
+
+```python
+def place_bet(
+    market_id: str,
+    amount: int,           # Mana amount to bet
+    outcome: str = "YES",  # "YES" or "NO"
+    limit_prob: float = None  # Optional limit order probability
+):
+    """
+    Place a bet on Manifold
+
+    Args:
+        market_id: The market ID (not slug!)
+        amount: Amount of Mana to bet
+        outcome: "YES" or "NO"
+        limit_prob: Optional - if set, creates a limit order at this probability
+    """
+    payload = {
+        "contractId": market_id,
+        "amount": amount,
+        "outcome": outcome
+    }
+
+    if limit_prob is not None:
+        payload["limitProb"] = limit_prob
+
+    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/bet", headers=headers(), json=payload)
+    r.raise_for_status()
+    result = r.json()
+
+    print(f"Bet placed!")
+    print(f"Shares: {result.get('shares', 0):.2f}")
+    print(f"Probability after: {result.get('probAfter', 0)*100:.1f}%")
+
+    return result
+
+# Market bet - buys at current price
+result = place_bet(
+    market_id="abc123",
+    amount=100,  # 100 Mana
+    outcome="YES"
+)
+
+# Limit order - only fills at 40% or below
+result = place_bet(
+    market_id="abc123",
+    amount=100,
+    outcome="YES",
+    limit_prob=0.40
+)
+```
+
+## Cancel Bet (Limit Orders Only)
+
+```python
+def cancel_bet(bet_id: str):
+    """Cancel a limit order"""
+    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/bet/cancel/{bet_id}", headers=headers())
+    r.raise_for_status()
+    return True
+
+cancel_bet("bet123")
+```
+
+## Sell Shares
+
+```python
+def sell_shares(
+    market_id: str,
+    outcome: str = "YES",
+    shares: float = None  # None = sell all
+):
+    """
+    Sell shares in a market
+
+    Args:
+        market_id: The market ID
+        outcome: "YES" or "NO" - which shares to sell
+        shares: Number of shares to sell (None = all)
+    """
+    payload = {
+        "contractId": market_id,
+        "outcome": outcome
+    }
+
+    if shares is not None:
+        payload["shares"] = shares
+
+    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/market/{market_id}/sell", headers=headers(), json=payload)
+    r.raise_for_status()
+    return r.json()
+
+# Sell all YES shares
+sell_shares("abc123", "YES")
+
+# Sell specific amount
+sell_shares("abc123", "YES", shares=50.0)
+```
+
+## Get Your Bets
+
+```python
+def get_my_bets(market_id: str = None):
+    """Get your bets"""
+    params = {}
+    if market_id:
+        params["contractId"] = market_id
+
+    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/bets", headers=headers(), params=params)
+    r.raise_for_status()
+    bets = r.json()
+
+    for b in bets[:10]:
+        print(f"Bet: {b['outcome']} {b['amount']}M @ {b.get('probBefore', 0)*100:.0f}%")
+
+    return bets
+
+bets = get_my_bets()
+```
+
+## Get Your Positions
+
+```python
+def get_positions():
+    """Get current positions across all markets"""
+    # Get user info first
+    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/me", headers=headers())
+    r.raise_for_status()
+    user = r.json()
+
+    # Get bets to calculate positions
+    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/bets", headers=headers(), params={"limit": 1000})
+    bets = r.json()
+
+    # Aggregate by market
+    positions = {}
+    for bet in bets:
+        mid = bet["contractId"]
+        if mid not in positions:
+            positions[mid] = {"yes": 0, "no": 0, "invested": 0}
+
+        if bet["outcome"] == "YES":
+            positions[mid]["yes"] += bet.get("shares", 0)
+        else:
+            positions[mid]["no"] += bet.get("shares", 0)
+
+        if not bet.get("isSold", False):
+            positions[mid]["invested"] += bet["amount"]
+
+    return positions, user.get("balance", 0)
+
+positions, balance = get_positions()
+print(f"Balance: {balance} Mana")
+for mid, pos in positions.items():
+    if pos["yes"] > 0 or pos["no"] > 0:
+        print(f"Market {mid}: YES={pos['yes']:.1f}, NO={pos['no']:.1f}")
+```
+
+## Get Balance
+
+```python
+def get_balance():
+    """Get your Mana balance"""
+    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/me", headers=headers())
+    r.raise_for_status()
+    user = r.json()
+    return user.get("balance", 0)
+
+balance = get_balance()
+print(f"Balance: {balance} Mana")
+```
+
+## Complete Trading Bot Example
+
+```python
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""
+Manifold arbitrage bot - finds mispriced markets
+"""
+
+import os
+import time
+import requests
+
+API_URL = "https://api.manifold.markets/v0"
+API_KEY = os.getenv("MANIFOLD_API_KEY")
+
+def h():
+    return {"Authorization": f"Key {API_KEY}", "Content-Type": "application/json"}
+
+def search(query):
+    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/search-markets",
+                    params={"term": query, "limit": 20, "filter": "open"})
+    return r.json()
+
+def bet(market_id, amount, outcome, limit_prob=None):
+    payload = {"contractId": market_id, "amount": amount, "outcome": outcome}
+    if limit_prob:
+        payload["limitProb"] = limit_prob
+    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/bet", headers=h(), json=payload)
+    return r.json()
+
+def get_balance():
+    r = requests.get(f"{API_URL}/me", headers=h())
+    return r.json().get("balance", 0)
+
+# Strategy: Buy extreme probabilities (likely to revert)
+MIN_LIQUIDITY = 1000  # Only trade liquid markets
+
+while True:
+    try:
+        balance = get_balance()
+        print(f"\nBalance: {balance} Mana")
+
+        # Search trending markets
+        markets = search("2024")
+
+        for m in markets:
+            prob = m.get("probability", 0.5)
+            liquidity = m.get("totalLiquidity", 0)
+
+            if liquidity < MIN_LIQUIDITY:
+                continue
+
+            # Buy YES on very low probability (< 10%)
+            if prob < 0.10:
+                print(f"LOW: {m['question'][:50]} at {prob*100:.1f}%")
+                if balance > 50:
+                    bet(m["id"], 50, "YES", limit_prob=0.15)
+
+            # Buy NO on very high probability (> 90%)
+            elif prob > 0.90:
+                print(f"HIGH: {m['question'][:50]} at {prob*100:.1f}%")
+                if balance > 50:
+                    bet(m["id"], 50, "NO", limit_prob=0.85)
+
+        time.sleep(300)  # Check every 5 minutes
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        print(f"Error: {e}")
+        time.sleep(60)
+```
+
+## Multiple Choice Markets
+
+```python
+def bet_multiple_choice(market_id: str, answer_id: str, amount: int):
+    """Bet on a multiple choice market"""
+    payload = {
+        "contractId": market_id,
+        "amount": amount,
+        "answerId": answer_id
+    }
+
+    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/bet", headers=headers(), json=payload)
+    r.raise_for_status()
+    return r.json()
+
+# Get market with answers
+market = get_market("who-will-win-2024-election")
+for answer in market.get("answers", []):
+    print(f"{answer['text']}: {answer['probability']*100:.1f}% (ID: {answer['id']})")
+
+# Bet on specific answer
+bet_multiple_choice("market123", "answer456", 100)
+```
+
+## Create a Market
+
+```python
+def create_market(
+    question: str,
+    description: str = "",
+    close_time: int = None,  # Unix timestamp
+    initial_prob: float = 0.5,
+    ante: int = 100  # Initial liquidity
+):
+    """Create a new binary market"""
+    payload = {
+        "outcomeType": "BINARY",
+        "question": question,
+        "description": description,
+        "initialProb": int(initial_prob * 100),
+        "ante": ante
+    }
+
+    if close_time:
+        payload["closeTime"] = close_time * 1000  # Milliseconds
+
+    r = requests.post(f"{API_URL}/market", headers=headers(), json=payload)
+    r.raise_for_status()
+    return r.json()
+
+# Create market
+new_market = create_market(
+    question="Will it rain tomorrow in NYC?",
+    initial_prob=0.3,
+    ante=100
+)
+print(f"Created: {new_market['url']}")
+```
+
+## Important Notes
+
+1. **Mana is play money** - Can be donated to charity
+2. **No limit on bets** - Unlike real money markets
+3. **Market maker AMM** - Prices move based on bets
+4. **Limit orders** - Use `limitProb` for better prices
+5. **API rate limits** - Be gentle, ~60 requests/minute
+6. **Shares ≠ Mana** - Shares vary based on probability