claudish 14.7.0 → 14.9.0

package/dist/index.js

@@ -5398,7 +5398,7 @@ var init_onepassword_config = __esm(() => {
 });
 
 // src/version.ts
-var VERSION = "14.7.0";
+var VERSION = "14.9.0";
 
 // src/redact.ts
 function isPlaceholder(value) {
@@ -16042,7 +16042,7 @@ var init_minimax_model_dialect = __esm(() => {
 });
 
 // src/auth/accounts/allowance-report-schema.ts
-var ALLOWANCE_REPORT_SCHEMA = "claudish.allowance.v1", iso, fraction, finite, nonNegative, quantilesOf = (t) => object({ p10: t, p25: t, p50: t, p75: t, p90: t }), alertLevel, strategyName, evidence, unit, provenance, semantics, gapKind, exactness, accountSchema, remedySchema, alertSchema, historyPoint, trajectorySchema, sessionSchema, allowanceReportSchema, ALLOWANCE_REPORT_SECTIONS, partialReport, allowanceStatusAnswerSchema;
+var ALLOWANCE_REPORT_SCHEMA = "claudish.allowance.v1", iso, fraction, finite, nonNegative, quantilesOf = (t) => object({ p10: t, p25: t, p50: t, p75: t, p90: t }), alertLevel, strategyName, evidence, unit, provenance, semantics, gapKind, exactness, accountSchema, remedySchema, alertSchema, historyPoint, switchSchema, blockedSchema, trajectorySchema, sessionSchema, allowanceReportSchema, ALLOWANCE_REPORT_SECTIONS, partialReport, allowanceStatusAnswerSchema;
 var init_allowance_report_schema = __esm(() => {
   init_zod();
   iso = exports_iso.datetime({ offset: true });
@@ -16101,19 +16101,31 @@ var init_allowance_report_schema = __esm(() => {
     remaining: finite,
     provenance: _enum(["observed", "reset-inferred"])
   });
+  switchSchema = object({
+    accountId: string2(),
+    soonest: iso,
+    usual: iso,
+    latest: iso,
+    probability: fraction,
+    likelihood: object({
+      start: iso,
+      stepHours: literal(1),
+      p: array(number2().min(0).max(1)).min(1)
+    }).optional()
+  });
+  blockedSchema = object({ from: iso, to: iso, kind: gapKind, probability: fraction });
   trajectorySchema = object({
     history: array(historyPoint),
     historyByAccount: array(object({ accountId: string2(), history: array(historyPoint) })).optional(),
     forecast: array(object({ at: iso, p10: finite, p50: finite, p90: finite, pBlocked: fraction })),
     resets: array(object({ at: iso, account: string2(), window: string2(), projected: boolean2() })),
-    blocked: array(object({ from: iso, to: iso, kind: gapKind, probability: fraction })),
-    switches: array(object({
-      accountId: string2(),
-      soonest: iso,
-      usual: iso,
-      latest: iso,
-      probability: fraction
-    })).optional(),
+    blocked: array(blockedSchema),
+    switches: array(switchSchema).optional(),
+    slower: object({
+      factor: number2().gt(0).lt(1),
+      switches: array(switchSchema),
+      blocked: array(blockedSchema)
+    }).optional(),
     spark48: string2().regex(/^[\u2581\u2582\u2583\u2584\u2585\u2586\u2587\u2588\u2592\u2593\u250A ]*$/u)
   });
   sessionSchema = object({
@@ -16646,7 +16658,7 @@ function cuOf(tokens, cfg) {
   const uncached = Math.max(0, tokens.input - tokens.cacheRead - tokens.cacheWrite);
   return uncached + w.cacheRead * tokens.cacheRead + w.cacheWrite * tokens.cacheWrite + w.output * tokens.output;
 }
-var PROVIDER_COST_PRIORS, MINUTE_MS2 = 60000, HOUR_MS2, DEFAULT_ALLOWANCE_CONFIG, LOOKAHEAD_TRAJ_PATHS = 40, MIN_PATH_SHARE = 0.1, PACE_MAX_MULT = 64, PACE_BISECT_STEPS = 4;
+var PROVIDER_COST_PRIORS, MINUTE_MS2 = 60000, HOUR_MS2, DEFAULT_ALLOWANCE_CONFIG, LOOKAHEAD_TRAJ_PATHS = 40, MIN_PATH_SHARE = 0.1, SLOWER_FACTOR, PACE_MAX_MULT = 64, PACE_BISECT_STEPS = 4;
 var init_constants = __esm(() => {
   PROVIDER_COST_PRIORS = {
     "openai-codex": { cacheRead: 0.1, cacheWrite: 1, output: 4 },
@@ -16709,6 +16721,7 @@ var init_constants = __esm(() => {
     SESSION_TTL_D: 8,
     SESSIONS_MAX: 2048
   };
+  SLOWER_FACTOR = 2 / 3;
 });
 
 // src/auth/accounts/allowance/capacity.ts
@@ -19955,6 +19968,32 @@ function firstTakeovers(r, from, now, end) {
   }
   return taken;
 }
+function likelihoodOf(times, q, h0, hours) {
+  const x = times.map((t) => (t - h0) / HOUR_MS14);
+  const n = x.length;
+  const mean = x.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / Math.max(1, n);
+  const sd = Math.sqrt(x.reduce((a, b) => a + (b - mean) ** 2, 0) / Math.max(1, n - 1));
+  const iqr = (q.p75 - q.p25) / HOUR_MS14 / 1.34;
+  const spread = iqr > 0 ? Math.min(sd, iqr) : 0;
+  const bandwidth = 0.9 * spread * n ** -0.2;
+  const p = new Array(Math.max(0, hours)).fill(0);
+  if (bandwidth < MIN_BANDWIDTH_H) {
+    for (const xi of x) {
+      const i = Math.floor(xi);
+      if (i >= 0 && i < p.length)
+        p[i] = (p[i] ?? 0) + 1;
+    }
+  } else {
+    for (let i = 0;i < p.length; i++) {
+      let f = 0;
+      for (const xi of x)
+        f += Math.exp(-0.5 * ((i + 0.5 - xi) / bandwidth) ** 2);
+      p[i] = f;
+    }
+  }
+  const peak = Math.max(0, ...p);
+  return peak > 0 ? p.map((v) => v / peak) : p;
+}
 function switchesOf2(results, views, poolActive, now, end) {
   const order = new Map(views.map((v, i) => [v.account, i]));
   const from = poolActive !== null && order.has(poolActive) ? poolActive : null;
@@ -19967,12 +20006,20 @@ function switchesOf2(results, views, poolActive, now, end) {
     }
   }
   const paths = Math.max(1, results.length);
+  const h0 = hourStart(now);
+  const hours = Math.floor((end - h0) / HOUR_MS14) + 1;
   const out = [];
   for (const [account, list] of times) {
     const probability = list.length / paths;
     if (probability < MIN_PATH_SHARE)
       continue;
-    out.push({ account, q: quantilesOf2(list), probability: Math.min(1, probability) });
+    const q = quantilesOf2(list);
+    out.push({
+      account,
+      q,
+      probability: Math.min(1, probability),
+      likelihood: { start: h0, p: likelihoodOf(list, q, h0, hours) }
+    });
   }
   return out.sort((a, b) => a.q.p50 - b.q.p50 || (order.get(a.account) ?? 0) - (order.get(b.account) ?? 0));
 }
@@ -20010,7 +20057,8 @@ function trajectory(s, now, horizonMs, cal, cfg) {
     blocked: [],
     switches: [],
     lostAtReset: {},
-    historyByAccount
+    historyByAccount,
+    slower: { factor: SLOWER_FACTOR, switches: [], blocked: [] }
   };
   if (evidenceOf(s, now) === "none" || all.length === 0)
     return empty;
@@ -20023,19 +20071,23 @@ function trajectory(s, now, horizonMs, cal, cfg) {
   const alertCfg = alertModelConfig(cfg);
   const paths = trajPaths(alertCfg);
   const results = [];
+  const slowerResults = [];
+  const run = (drawn, demand) => simulate(drawn, demand, cfg, {
+    now,
+    strategy: STRATEGIES[alertCfg.strategy],
+    thread: { account: null, lastSwitchAt: null, contextTokens: null },
+    poolActive: s.poolActive ?? null,
+    horizonMs
+  });
   for (let p = 0;p < paths; p++) {
     const demand = sampleDemandPath(model, rng);
     const drawn = views.map((v) => drawCapacity(v, rng));
-    results.push(simulate(drawn, demand, cfg, {
-      now,
-      strategy: STRATEGIES[alertCfg.strategy],
-      thread: { account: null, lastSwitchAt: null, contextTokens: null },
-      poolActive: s.poolActive ?? null,
-      horizonMs
-    }));
+    results.push(run(drawn, demand));
+    slowerResults.push(run(drawn, demand.map((d) => d * SLOWER_FACTOR)));
   }
   const h0 = hourStart(now);
   const forecast = [];
+  const slowerForecast = [];
   for (let k = 0;k < buckets; k++) {
     const at = h0 + k * HOUR_MS14;
     if (at > end)
@@ -20048,6 +20100,8 @@ function trajectory(s, now, horizonMs, cal, cfg) {
         blocked++;
     }
     forecast.push({ at, q: quantilesOf2(values), pBlocked: blocked / paths });
+    const slowerBlocked = slowerResults.filter((r) => r.blocked[k]?.blocked).length;
+    slowerForecast.push({ at, q: forecast[k].q, pBlocked: slowerBlocked / paths });
   }
   return {
     unit,
@@ -20057,7 +20111,12 @@ function trajectory(s, now, horizonMs, cal, cfg) {
     blocked: blockedRuns(results, forecast),
     switches: switchesOf2(results, views, s.poolActive ?? null, now, end),
     lostAtReset: lostAtResetOf(results, views),
-    historyByAccount
+    historyByAccount,
+    slower: {
+      factor: SLOWER_FACTOR,
+      switches: switchesOf2(slowerResults, views, s.poolActive ?? null, now, end),
+      blocked: blockedRuns(slowerResults, slowerForecast)
+    }
   };
 }
 function sparkline(t, cells) {
@@ -20121,7 +20180,7 @@ function sparkline(t, cells) {
     return LEVELS[Math.max(0, level)] ?? " ";
   }).join("");
 }
-var MINUTE_MS10 = 60000, HOUR_MS14 = 3600000, WEEK_MS4, BLOCKED_SHARE = 0.5, WIDE_BAND = 0.15, LEVELS, provenanceOf = (inferred) => inferred ? "reset-inferred" : "observed";
+var MINUTE_MS10 = 60000, HOUR_MS14 = 3600000, WEEK_MS4, BLOCKED_SHARE = 0.5, WIDE_BAND = 0.15, LEVELS, provenanceOf = (inferred) => inferred ? "reset-inferred" : "observed", MIN_BANDWIDTH_H = 0.5;
 var init_trajectory = __esm(() => {
   init_alerts();
   init_calibrate();
@@ -22769,6 +22828,29 @@ function poolRemaining(views) {
   }
   return { remainingNow: now.value, capacity, unit: now.unit };
 }
+function likelihoodView(l) {
+  const p = l.p.map((v) => Math.round(Math.min(1, Math.max(0, v)) * 1000) / 1000);
+  const first = p.findIndex((v) => v > 0);
+  if (first < 0)
+    return;
+  let last = p.length - 1;
+  while (last > first && p[last] === 0)
+    last--;
+  return { start: iso2(l.start + first * HOUR_MS16), stepHours: 1, p: p.slice(first, last + 1) };
+}
+function switchView(sw) {
+  return {
+    accountId: sw.account,
+    soonest: iso2(sw.q.p10),
+    usual: iso2(sw.q.p50),
+    latest: iso2(sw.q.p90),
+    probability: Math.min(1, Math.max(0, sw.probability)),
+    likelihood: likelihoodView(sw.likelihood)
+  };
+}
+function blockedView(b) {
+  return { from: iso2(b.from.p50), to: iso2(b.to.p50), kind: b.kind, probability: b.probability };
+}
 function sustainableOf(top, pace, burnLong) {
   const long = Number.isFinite(burnLong) ? Math.max(0, burnLong) : 0;
   if (top)
@@ -22895,23 +22977,17 @@ function buildReport(input) {
         window: r.window,
         projected: r.projected
       })),
-      blocked: traj.blocked.map((b) => ({
-        from: iso2(b.from.p50),
-        to: iso2(b.to.p50),
-        kind: b.kind,
-        probability: b.probability
-      })),
+      blocked: traj.blocked.map(blockedView),
       historyByAccount: none ? [] : views.filter((v) => traj.historyByAccount[v.account] !== undefined).map((v) => ({
         accountId: v.account,
         history: (traj.historyByAccount[v.account] ?? []).filter((h) => h.at >= now - 24 * HOUR_MS16).map((h) => ({ at: iso2(h.at), remaining: h.remaining, provenance: h.provenance }))
       })),
-      switches: traj.switches.map((sw) => ({
-        accountId: sw.account,
-        soonest: iso2(sw.q.p10),
-        usual: iso2(sw.q.p50),
-        latest: iso2(sw.q.p90),
-        probability: Math.min(1, Math.max(0, sw.probability))
-      })),
+      switches: traj.switches.map(switchView),
+      slower: {
+        factor: Math.round(traj.slower.factor * 1000) / 1000,
+        switches: traj.slower.switches.map(switchView),
+        blocked: traj.slower.blocked.map(blockedView)
+      },
       spark48: sparkline({
         ...traj,
         history: traj.history.filter((h) => h.at >= now - 24 * HOUR_MS16),

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "claudish",
-  "version": "14.7.0",
+  "version": "14.9.0",
   "description": "Run Claude Code with any model - OpenRouter, Ollama, LM Studio & local models",
   "type": "module",
   "main": "./dist/index.js",
@@ -71,10 +71,10 @@
     "ai"
   ],
   "optionalDependencies": {
-    "@claudish/magmux-darwin-arm64": "14.7.0",
-    "@claudish/magmux-darwin-x64": "14.7.0",
-    "@claudish/magmux-linux-arm64": "14.7.0",
-    "@claudish/magmux-linux-x64": "14.7.0"
+    "@claudish/magmux-darwin-arm64": "14.9.0",
+    "@claudish/magmux-darwin-x64": "14.9.0",
+    "@claudish/magmux-linux-arm64": "14.9.0",
+    "@claudish/magmux-linux-x64": "14.9.0"
   },
   "author": "Jack Rudenko <i@madappgang.com>",
   "license": "MIT",