claudish 14.7.0 → 14.8.0

package/dist/index.js

@@ -5398,7 +5398,7 @@ var init_onepassword_config = __esm(() => {
 });
 
 // src/version.ts
-var VERSION = "14.7.0";
+var VERSION = "14.8.0";
 
 // src/redact.ts
 function isPlaceholder(value) {
@@ -16112,7 +16112,12 @@ var init_allowance_report_schema = __esm(() => {
       soonest: iso,
       usual: iso,
       latest: iso,
-      probability: fraction
+      probability: fraction,
+      likelihood: object({
+        start: iso,
+        stepHours: literal(1),
+        p: array(number2().min(0).max(1)).min(1)
+      }).optional()
     })).optional(),
     spark48: string2().regex(/^[\u2581\u2582\u2583\u2584\u2585\u2586\u2587\u2588\u2592\u2593\u250A ]*$/u)
   });
@@ -19955,6 +19960,32 @@ function firstTakeovers(r, from, now, end) {
   }
   return taken;
 }
+function likelihoodOf(times, q, h0, hours) {
+  const x = times.map((t) => (t - h0) / HOUR_MS14);
+  const n = x.length;
+  const mean = x.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / Math.max(1, n);
+  const sd = Math.sqrt(x.reduce((a, b) => a + (b - mean) ** 2, 0) / Math.max(1, n - 1));
+  const iqr = (q.p75 - q.p25) / HOUR_MS14 / 1.34;
+  const spread = iqr > 0 ? Math.min(sd, iqr) : 0;
+  const bandwidth = 0.9 * spread * n ** -0.2;
+  const p = new Array(Math.max(0, hours)).fill(0);
+  if (bandwidth < MIN_BANDWIDTH_H) {
+    for (const xi of x) {
+      const i = Math.floor(xi);
+      if (i >= 0 && i < p.length)
+        p[i] = (p[i] ?? 0) + 1;
+    }
+  } else {
+    for (let i = 0;i < p.length; i++) {
+      let f = 0;
+      for (const xi of x)
+        f += Math.exp(-0.5 * ((i + 0.5 - xi) / bandwidth) ** 2);
+      p[i] = f;
+    }
+  }
+  const peak = Math.max(0, ...p);
+  return peak > 0 ? p.map((v) => v / peak) : p;
+}
 function switchesOf2(results, views, poolActive, now, end) {
   const order = new Map(views.map((v, i) => [v.account, i]));
   const from = poolActive !== null && order.has(poolActive) ? poolActive : null;
@@ -19967,12 +19998,20 @@ function switchesOf2(results, views, poolActive, now, end) {
     }
   }
   const paths = Math.max(1, results.length);
+  const h0 = hourStart(now);
+  const hours = Math.floor((end - h0) / HOUR_MS14) + 1;
   const out = [];
   for (const [account, list] of times) {
     const probability = list.length / paths;
     if (probability < MIN_PATH_SHARE)
       continue;
-    out.push({ account, q: quantilesOf2(list), probability: Math.min(1, probability) });
+    const q = quantilesOf2(list);
+    out.push({
+      account,
+      q,
+      probability: Math.min(1, probability),
+      likelihood: { start: h0, p: likelihoodOf(list, q, h0, hours) }
+    });
   }
   return out.sort((a, b) => a.q.p50 - b.q.p50 || (order.get(a.account) ?? 0) - (order.get(b.account) ?? 0));
 }
@@ -20121,7 +20160,7 @@ function sparkline(t, cells) {
     return LEVELS[Math.max(0, level)] ?? " ";
   }).join("");
 }
-var MINUTE_MS10 = 60000, HOUR_MS14 = 3600000, WEEK_MS4, BLOCKED_SHARE = 0.5, WIDE_BAND = 0.15, LEVELS, provenanceOf = (inferred) => inferred ? "reset-inferred" : "observed";
+var MINUTE_MS10 = 60000, HOUR_MS14 = 3600000, WEEK_MS4, BLOCKED_SHARE = 0.5, WIDE_BAND = 0.15, LEVELS, provenanceOf = (inferred) => inferred ? "reset-inferred" : "observed", MIN_BANDWIDTH_H = 0.5;
 var init_trajectory = __esm(() => {
   init_alerts();
   init_calibrate();
@@ -22769,6 +22808,16 @@ function poolRemaining(views) {
   }
   return { remainingNow: now.value, capacity, unit: now.unit };
 }
+function likelihoodView(l) {
+  const p = l.p.map((v) => Math.round(Math.min(1, Math.max(0, v)) * 1000) / 1000);
+  const first = p.findIndex((v) => v > 0);
+  if (first < 0)
+    return;
+  let last = p.length - 1;
+  while (last > first && p[last] === 0)
+    last--;
+  return { start: iso2(l.start + first * HOUR_MS16), stepHours: 1, p: p.slice(first, last + 1) };
+}
 function sustainableOf(top, pace, burnLong) {
   const long = Number.isFinite(burnLong) ? Math.max(0, burnLong) : 0;
   if (top)
@@ -22910,7 +22959,8 @@ function buildReport(input) {
         soonest: iso2(sw.q.p10),
         usual: iso2(sw.q.p50),
         latest: iso2(sw.q.p90),
-        probability: Math.min(1, Math.max(0, sw.probability))
+        probability: Math.min(1, Math.max(0, sw.probability)),
+        likelihood: likelihoodView(sw.likelihood)
       })),
       spark48: sparkline({
         ...traj,

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "claudish",
-  "version": "14.7.0",
+  "version": "14.8.0",
   "description": "Run Claude Code with any model - OpenRouter, Ollama, LM Studio & local models",
   "type": "module",
   "main": "./dist/index.js",
@@ -71,10 +71,10 @@
     "ai"
   ],
   "optionalDependencies": {
-    "@claudish/magmux-darwin-arm64": "14.7.0",
-    "@claudish/magmux-darwin-x64": "14.7.0",
-    "@claudish/magmux-linux-arm64": "14.7.0",
-    "@claudish/magmux-linux-x64": "14.7.0"
+    "@claudish/magmux-darwin-arm64": "14.8.0",
+    "@claudish/magmux-darwin-x64": "14.8.0",
+    "@claudish/magmux-linux-arm64": "14.8.0",
+    "@claudish/magmux-linux-x64": "14.8.0"
   },
   "author": "Jack Rudenko <i@madappgang.com>",
   "license": "MIT",