claude-turing 4.1.0 → 4.3.0

package/.claude-plugin/plugin.json

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 {
   "name": "turing",
-  "version": "4.1.0",
-  "description": "Autonomous ML research harness — the autoresearch loop as a formal protocol. 66 commands, 2 specialized agents, collaboration (onboard + share + review), research communication (cite + present + changelog), experiment archaeology (trend + flashback + archive + annotate + search + template + replay), model surgery (prune + quantize + merge + surgery), feature & training intelligence, model debugging, pre-training intelligence, meta-intelligence, scaling & efficiency, model composition, deep analysis, experiment orchestration, literature + paper, model export, profiling, checkpoints, experiment intelligence, statistical rigor, tree-search, cost-performance, model cards, hypothesis database, novelty guard, anti-cheating, taste-leverage loop. Inspired by Karpathy's autoresearch and the scientific method itself.",
+  "version": "4.3.0",
+  "description": "Autonomous ML research harness — the autoresearch loop as a formal protocol. 71 commands, 2 specialized agents, model lifecycle (update + registry), what-if analysis (whatif + counterfactual + simulate), collaboration (onboard + share + review), research communication (cite + present + changelog), experiment archaeology (trend + flashback + archive + annotate + search + template + replay), model surgery (prune + quantize + merge + surgery), feature & training intelligence, model debugging, pre-training intelligence, meta-intelligence, scaling & efficiency, model composition, deep analysis, experiment orchestration, literature + paper, model export, profiling, checkpoints, experiment intelligence, statistical rigor, tree-search, cost-performance, model cards, hypothesis database, novelty guard, anti-cheating, taste-leverage loop. Inspired by Karpathy's autoresearch and the scientific method itself.",
   "author": {
     "name": "pragnition"
   },

package/README.md

@@ -377,6 +377,11 @@ The index (`hypotheses.yaml`) is the lightweight queue. The detail files (`hypot
 | `/turing:onboard [--audience]` | Project onboarding — walkthrough for new collaborators |
 | `/turing:share <exp-ids...>` | Experiment packaging — portable archive with manifest |
 | `/turing:review [--venue]` | Peer review simulation — weaknesses, fix commands, score |
+| `/turing:whatif "<question>"` | What-if analysis — answer hypotheticals from existing experiment data |
+| `/turing:counterfactual <exp-id>` | Counterfactual explanations — minimum input change to flip a prediction |
+| `/turing:simulate [--configs]` | Experiment outcome prediction — pre-filter configs, save budget |
+| `/turing:update <exp-id>` | Incremental model update — add new data without full retraining |
+| `/turing:registry [action]` | Model registry — track lifecycle from candidate to production with gates |
 
 And for fully hands-off operation:
 
@@ -561,11 +566,11 @@ Each project gets independent config, data, experiments, models, and agent memor
 
 ## Architecture of Turing Itself
 
-66 commands, 2 agents, 10 config files, 85 template scripts, model registry, artifact contract, cost-performance frontier, model cards, tree-search exploration, statistical rigor, experiment intelligence, performance profiling, smart checkpoints, production model export, literature integration, paper section drafting, experiment orchestration (queue + retry + fork), deep analysis (diff + watch + regress), model composition (ensemble + stitch + warm), scaling & efficiency (scale + budget + distill), meta-intelligence (transfer + audit), pre-training intelligence (sanity + baseline + leak), model debugging (xray + sensitivity + calibrate), feature & training intelligence (feature + curriculum), model surgery (prune + quantize + merge + surgery), experiment archaeology (trend + flashback + archive + annotate + search + template + replay), research communication (cite + present + changelog), collaboration (onboard + share + review), 16 ADRs. See [docs/ARCHITECTURE.md](docs/ARCHITECTURE.md) for the full codemap.
+71 commands, 2 agents, 10 config files, 90 template scripts, model registry, artifact contract, cost-performance frontier, model cards, tree-search exploration, statistical rigor, experiment intelligence, performance profiling, smart checkpoints, production model export, literature integration, paper section drafting, experiment orchestration (queue + retry + fork), deep analysis (diff + watch + regress), model composition (ensemble + stitch + warm), scaling & efficiency (scale + budget + distill), meta-intelligence (transfer + audit), pre-training intelligence (sanity + baseline + leak), model debugging (xray + sensitivity + calibrate), feature & training intelligence (feature + curriculum), model surgery (prune + quantize + merge + surgery), experiment archaeology (trend + flashback + archive + annotate + search + template + replay), research communication (cite + present + changelog), collaboration (onboard + share + review), what-if analysis (whatif + counterfactual + simulate), model lifecycle (update + registry), 16 ADRs. See [docs/ARCHITECTURE.md](docs/ARCHITECTURE.md) for the full codemap.
 
 ```
 turing/
-├── commands/              62 skill files (core + taste-leverage + reporting + exploration + statistical rigor + experiment intelligence + performance + deployment + research workflow + orchestration + deep analysis + model composition + scaling & efficiency + meta-intelligence + pre-training intelligence + model debugging + feature & training intelligence + model surgery + experiment archaeology + research communication)
+├── commands/              67 skill files (core + taste-leverage + reporting + exploration + statistical rigor + experiment intelligence + performance + deployment + research workflow + orchestration + deep analysis + model composition + scaling & efficiency + meta-intelligence + pre-training intelligence + model debugging + feature & training intelligence + model surgery + experiment archaeology + research communication + what-if analysis + model lifecycle)
 ├── agents/                2 agents (researcher: read/write, evaluator: read-only)
 ├── config/                8 files (lifecycle, taxonomy, archetypes, novelty aliases)
 ├── templates/             Scaffolded into user projects by /turing:init

package/commands/counterfactual.md

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+---
+name: counterfactual
+description: Input-level counterfactual explanations — find the smallest input change to flip a prediction.
+disable-model-invocation: true
+argument-hint: "<exp-id> --sample <index> [--target <class>]"
+allowed-tools: Read, Bash(*), Grep, Glob
+---
+
+What would need to change to flip this prediction? Minimum-change counterfactual for individual predictions.
+
+## Steps
+1. `source .venv/bin/activate`
+2. `python scripts/counterfactual_explanation.py $ARGUMENTS`
+3. **Saved:** `experiments/counterfactuals/`
+
+## Methods
+- **Greedy perturbation:** change one feature at a time, find minimum flip
+- **Prototype-based:** find nearest training sample from target class
+- Both methods run and the best (smallest distance) is selected
+
+## Examples
+```
+/turing:counterfactual exp-042 --sample 1247
+/turing:counterfactual exp-042 --sample 1247 --target 0
+/turing:counterfactual exp-042 --batch-misclassified
+/turing:counterfactual exp-042 --sample 500 --json
+```

package/commands/registry.md

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+---
+name: registry
+description: Model registry — track, promote, and govern the model lifecycle from candidate to production.
+disable-model-invocation: true
+argument-hint: "[list|register|promote|demote|archive|history] [exp-id] [stage]"
+allowed-tools: Read, Bash(*), Grep, Glob
+---
+
+Track which model is production, staging, candidate, or archived. Promotion requires passing gates.
+
+## Steps
+1. `source .venv/bin/activate`
+2. `python scripts/model_lifecycle.py $ARGUMENTS`
+3. **Registry:** `experiments/registry.yaml`
+
+## Promotion gates
+- **candidate → staging:** regression check + seed study must PASS
+- **staging → production:** audit + calibration check must PASS
+- Use `--force` to skip gate checks
+
+## Examples
+```
+/turing:registry list
+/turing:registry register exp-095 --version v4.1
+/turing:registry promote exp-089 staging
+/turing:registry promote exp-089 production --force
+/turing:registry demote exp-078 staging --reason "latency regression"
+/turing:registry archive exp-042 --reason "superseded by v4"
+/turing:registry history
+/turing:registry history exp-089
+```

package/commands/simulate.md

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+---
+name: simulate
+description: Experiment outcome prediction — predict which configs will beat the current best before running them.
+disable-model-invocation: true
+argument-hint: "[--configs configs.yaml] [--top-k 5] [--threshold 0.001]"
+allowed-tools: Read, Bash(*), Grep, Glob
+---
+
+Predict outcomes before spending compute. Ranks proposed configs and recommends which to run vs skip.
+
+## Steps
+1. `source .venv/bin/activate`
+2. `python scripts/experiment_simulator.py $ARGUMENTS`
+3. **Saved:** `experiments/simulations/`
+
+## How it works
+- Builds a surrogate model from experiment history (weighted k-NN)
+- Predicts metric for each proposed config
+- Applies novelty penalty for configs far from training distribution
+- Ranks and filters: only recommend configs predicted to improve
+
+## Examples
+```
+/turing:simulate --configs sweep_configs.yaml
+/turing:simulate --configs candidates.yaml --top-k 3
+/turing:simulate --configs proposals.yaml --threshold 0.005
+/turing:simulate --configs sweep.yaml --json
+```

package/commands/turing.md

@@ -75,6 +75,11 @@ You are the Turing ML research router. Detect the user's intent and route to the
 | "search", "find experiment", "query experiments", "which experiments" | `/turing:search` | Query |
 | "template", "recipe", "save config", "reusable config", "starting point" | `/turing:template` | Manage |
 | "replay", "re-run", "revisit", "retry old", "would it work now" | `/turing:replay` | Validate |
+| "what if", "what-if", "hypothetical", "estimate impact", "would it help" | `/turing:whatif` | Analyze |
+| "counterfactual", "flip prediction", "why this prediction", "minimum change", "explanation" | `/turing:counterfactual` | Explain |
+| "simulate", "predict outcome", "pre-filter", "which configs will work", "forecast" | `/turing:simulate` | Predict |
+| "update", "incremental", "new data", "add data", "fine-tune existing", "partial update" | `/turing:update` | Update |
+| "registry", "promote", "demote", "staging", "production", "which model is deployed", "model lifecycle" | `/turing:registry` | Govern |
 
 ## Sub-commands
 
@@ -146,6 +151,11 @@ You are the Turing ML research router. Detect the user's intent and route to the
 | `/turing:onboard [--audience]` | Project onboarding: full walkthrough for new collaborators | (inline) |
 | `/turing:share <exp-ids...>` | Experiment packaging: portable archive with manifest and README | (inline) |
 | `/turing:review [--venue]` | Peer review simulation: weaknesses, questions, fix commands, score | (inline) |
+| `/turing:whatif "<question>"` | What-if analysis: route hypotheticals to existing estimators (scaling, ablation, sensitivity, ensemble, pruning) | (inline) |
+| `/turing:counterfactual <exp-id> --sample <index>` | Input-level counterfactual explanations: minimum input change to flip a prediction | (inline) |
+| `/turing:simulate [--configs] [--top-k]` | Experiment outcome prediction: pre-filter configs using surrogate model, save budget | (inline) |
+| `/turing:update <exp-id> --new-data <path>` | Incremental model update: add new data without full retraining, forgetting detection | (inline) |
+| `/turing:registry [list\|register\|promote\|demote\|history]` | Model registry: stage lifecycle (candidate → staging → production) with promotion gates | (inline) |
 
 ## Proactive Detection
 

package/commands/update.md

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+---
+name: update
+description: Incremental model update — add new data without full retraining, with forgetting detection.
+disable-model-invocation: true
+argument-hint: "<exp-id> --new-data <path> [--replay-ratio 0.1] [--tolerance 0.005]"
+allowed-tools: Read, Bash(*), Grep, Glob
+---
+
+Add new data to an existing model without starting from scratch. Detects catastrophic forgetting.
+
+## Steps
+1. `source .venv/bin/activate`
+2. `python scripts/incremental_update.py $ARGUMENTS`
+3. **Saved:** `experiments/updates/`
+
+## Model-specific strategies
+- **XGBoost/LightGBM:** continued boosting with additional rounds
+- **Neural networks:** fine-tune with reduced LR + replay buffer from old data
+- **scikit-learn:** partial_fit() or warm_start=True
+
+## Examples
+```
+/turing:update exp-089 --new-data data/new_batch.csv
+/turing:update exp-089 --new-data data/new.csv --replay-ratio 0.2
+/turing:update exp-089 --new-data data/new.csv --tolerance 0.01
+/turing:update exp-089 --new-data data/new.csv --json
+```

package/commands/whatif.md

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+---
+name: whatif
+description: What-if analysis — answer hypotheticals from existing experiment data without running new experiments.
+disable-model-invocation: true
+argument-hint: "\"<question>\" [--json]"
+allowed-tools: Read, Bash(*), Grep, Glob
+---
+
+Answer "what if?" questions using existing experiment data. Routes to the right estimator automatically.
+
+## Steps
+1. `source .venv/bin/activate`
+2. `python scripts/whatif_engine.py $ARGUMENTS`
+3. **Saved:** `experiments/whatif/`
+
+## Supported question types
+- **Data scaling:** "what if I had 2x more data" → scaling law extrapolation
+- **Ablation:** "what if I removed class 3" → ablation study data
+- **Pipeline stitch:** "what if I combined exp-031 with exp-042" → stitch estimation
+- **Hyperparameters:** "what if learning_rate was 0.01" → sensitivity interpolation
+- **Ensemble:** "what if I ensembled the top models" → correlation analysis
+- **Pruning:** "what if I pruned to 50% sparsity" → pruning sweep interpolation
+- **Budget:** "what if I spent my budget on X vs Y" → budget allocation
+
+## Examples
+```
+/turing:whatif "what if I had 2x more data"
+/turing:whatif "what if I removed class 3"
+/turing:whatif "what if I combined exp-031 with exp-042"
+/turing:whatif "what if learning_rate was 0.01" --json
+```

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "claude-turing",
-  "version": "4.1.0",
+  "version": "4.3.0",
   "type": "module",
   "description": "Autonomous ML research harness for Claude Code. The autoresearch loop as a formal protocol — iteratively trains, evaluates, and improves ML models with structured experiment tracking, convergence detection, immutable evaluation infrastructure, and safety guardrails.",
   "bin": {

package/src/install.js

@@ -36,6 +36,8 @@ const SUB_COMMANDS = [
   "trend", "flashback", "archive", "annotate", "search", "template", "replay",
   "cite", "present", "changelog",
   "onboard", "share", "review",
+  "whatif", "counterfactual", "simulate",
+  "update", "registry",
 ];
 
 export async function install(opts = {}) {

package/src/verify.js

@@ -80,6 +80,11 @@ const EXPECTED_COMMANDS = [
   "onboard/SKILL.md",
   "share/SKILL.md",
   "review/SKILL.md",
+  "whatif/SKILL.md",
+  "counterfactual/SKILL.md",
+  "simulate/SKILL.md",
+  "update/SKILL.md",
+  "registry/SKILL.md",
 ];
 
 const EXPECTED_AGENTS = ["ml-researcher.md", "ml-evaluator.md"];