bmad-method 6.0.0-alpha.3 → 6.0.0-alpha.5

package/bmad/bmm/workflows/1-analysis/research/instructions-market.md

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+# Market Research Workflow Instructions
+
+<critical>The workflow execution engine is governed by: {project_root}/bmad/core/tasks/workflow.xml</critical>
+<critical>You MUST have already loaded and processed: {installed_path}/workflow.yaml</critical>
+<critical>This workflow uses ADAPTIVE FACILITATION - adjust your communication style based on {user_skill_level}</critical>
+<critical>This is a HIGHLY INTERACTIVE workflow - collaborate with user throughout, don't just gather info and disappear</critical>
+<critical>Web research is MANDATORY - use WebSearch tool with {{current_year}} for all market intelligence gathering</critical>
+<critical>Communicate all responses in {communication_language} and tailor to {user_skill_level}</critical>
+<critical>Generate all documents in {document_output_language}</critical>
+
+<critical>🚨 ANTI-HALLUCINATION PROTOCOL - MANDATORY 🚨</critical>
+<critical>NEVER invent market data - if you cannot find reliable data, explicitly state: "I could not find verified data for [X]"</critical>
+<critical>EVERY statistic, market size, growth rate, or competitive claim MUST have a cited source with URL</critical>
+<critical>For CRITICAL claims (TAM/SAM/SOM, market size, growth rates), require 2+ independent sources that agree</critical>
+<critical>When data sources conflict (e.g., different market size estimates), present ALL estimates with sources and explain variance</critical>
+<critical>Mark data confidence: [Verified - 2+ sources], [Single source - verify], [Estimated - low confidence]</critical>
+<critical>Clearly label: FACT (sourced data), ANALYSIS (your interpretation), PROJECTION (forecast/speculation)</critical>
+<critical>After each WebSearch, extract and store source URLs - include them in the report</critical>
+<critical>If a claim seems suspicious or too convenient, STOP and cross-verify with additional searches</critical>
+
+<!-- IDE-INJECT-POINT: market-research-subagents -->
+
+<workflow>
+
+<step n="1" goal="Discover research needs and scope collaboratively">
+
+<action>Welcome {user_name} warmly. Position yourself as their collaborative research partner who will:
+
+- Gather live {{current_year}} market data
+- Share findings progressively throughout
+- Help make sense of what we discover together
+
+Ask what they're building and what market questions they need answered.
+</action>
+
+<action>Through natural conversation, discover:
+
+- The product/service and current stage
+- Their burning questions (what they REALLY need to know)
+- Context and urgency (fundraising? launch decision? pivot?)
+- Existing knowledge vs. uncertainties
+- Desired depth (gauge from their needs, don't ask them to choose)
+
+Adapt your approach: If uncertain → help them think it through. If detailed → dig deeper.
+
+Collaboratively define scope:
+
+- Markets/segments to focus on
+- Geographic boundaries
+- Critical questions vs. nice-to-have
+  </action>
+
+<action>Reflect understanding back to confirm you're aligned on what matters.</action>
+
+<template-output>product_name</template-output>
+<template-output>product_description</template-output>
+<template-output>research_objectives</template-output>
+<template-output>research_scope</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="2" goal="Market Definition and Boundaries">
+<action>Help the user precisely define the market scope</action>
+
+Work with the user to establish:
+
+1. **Market Category Definition**
+   - Primary category/industry
+   - Adjacent or overlapping markets
+   - Where this fits in the value chain
+
+2. **Geographic Scope**
+   - Global, regional, or country-specific?
+   - Primary markets vs. expansion markets
+   - Regulatory considerations by region
+
+3. **Customer Segment Boundaries**
+   - B2B, B2C, or B2B2C?
+   - Primary vs. secondary segments
+   - Segment size estimates
+
+<ask>Should we include adjacent markets in the TAM calculation? This could significantly increase market size but may be less immediately addressable.</ask>
+
+<template-output>market_definition</template-output>
+<template-output>geographic_scope</template-output>
+<template-output>segment_boundaries</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="3" goal="Gather live market intelligence collaboratively">
+
+<critical>This step REQUIRES WebSearch tool usage - gather CURRENT data from {{current_year}}</critical>
+<critical>Share findings as you go - make this collaborative, not a black box</critical>
+
+<action>Let {user_name} know you're searching for current {{market_category}} market data: size, growth, analyst reports, recent trends. Tell them you'll share what you find in a few minutes and review it together.</action>
+
+<step n="3a" title="Search for market size and industry data">
+<action>Conduct systematic web searches using WebSearch tool:
+
+<WebSearch>{{market_category}} market size {{geographic_scope}} {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
+<WebSearch>{{market_category}} industry report Gartner Forrester IDC {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
+<WebSearch>{{market_category}} market growth rate CAGR forecast {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
+<WebSearch>{{market_category}} market trends {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
+<WebSearch>{{market_category}} TAM SAM market opportunity {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
+</action>
+
+<action>Share findings WITH SOURCES including URLs and dates. Ask if it aligns with their expectations.</action>
+
+<action>CRITICAL - Validate data before proceeding:
+
+- Multiple sources with similar figures?
+- Recent sources ({{current_year}} or within 1-2 years)?
+- Credible sources (Gartner, Forrester, govt data, reputable pubs)?
+- Conflicts? Note explicitly, search for more sources, mark [Low Confidence]
+  </action>
+
+<action if="user_has_questions">Explore surprising data points together</action>
+
+<invoke-task halt="true">{project-root}/bmad/core/tasks/adv-elicit.xml</invoke-task>
+
+<template-output>sources_market_size</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="3b" title="Search for recent news and developments" optional="true">
+<action>Search for recent market developments:
+
+<WebSearch>{{market_category}} news {{current_year}} funding acquisitions</WebSearch>
+<WebSearch>{{market_category}} recent developments {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
+<WebSearch>{{market_category}} regulatory changes {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
+</action>
+
+<action>Share noteworthy findings:
+
+"I found some interesting recent developments:
+
+{{key_news_highlights}}
+
+Anything here surprise you or confirm what you suspected?"
+</action>
+</step>
+
+<step n="3c" title="Optional: Government and academic sources" optional="true">
+<action if="research needs high credibility">Search for authoritative sources:
+
+<WebSearch>{{market_category}} government statistics census data {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
+<WebSearch>{{market_category}} academic research white papers {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
+</action>
+</step>
+
+<template-output>market_intelligence_raw</template-output>
+<template-output>key_data_points</template-output>
+<template-output>source_credibility_notes</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="4" goal="TAM, SAM, SOM Calculations">
+<action>Calculate market sizes using multiple methodologies for triangulation</action>
+
+<critical>Use actual data gathered in previous steps, not hypothetical numbers</critical>
+
+<step n="4a" title="TAM Calculation">
+**Method 1: Top-Down Approach**
+- Start with total industry size from research
+- Apply relevant filters and segments
+- Show calculation: Industry Size × Relevant Percentage
+
+**Method 2: Bottom-Up Approach**
+
+- Number of potential customers × Average revenue per customer
+- Build from unit economics
+
+**Method 3: Value Theory Approach**
+
+- Value created × Capturable percentage
+- Based on problem severity and alternative costs
+
+<ask>Which TAM calculation method seems most credible given our data? Should we use multiple methods and triangulate?</ask>
+
+<template-output>tam_calculation</template-output>
+<template-output>tam_methodology</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="4b" title="SAM Calculation">
+<action>Calculate Serviceable Addressable Market</action>
+
+Apply constraints to TAM:
+
+- Geographic limitations (markets you can serve)
+- Regulatory restrictions
+- Technical requirements (e.g., internet penetration)
+- Language/cultural barriers
+- Current business model limitations
+
+SAM = TAM × Serviceable Percentage
+Show the calculation with clear assumptions.
+
+<template-output>sam_calculation</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="4c" title="SOM Calculation">
+<action>Calculate realistic market capture</action>
+
+Consider competitive dynamics:
+
+- Current market share of competitors
+- Your competitive advantages
+- Resource constraints
+- Time to market considerations
+- Customer acquisition capabilities
+
+Create 3 scenarios:
+
+1. Conservative (1-2% market share)
+2. Realistic (3-5% market share)
+3. Optimistic (5-10% market share)
+
+<template-output>som_scenarios</template-output>
+</step>
+</step>
+
+<step n="5" goal="Customer Segment Deep Dive">
+<action>Develop detailed understanding of target customers</action>
+
+<step n="5a" title="Segment Identification" repeat="for-each-segment">
+For each major segment, research and define:
+
+**Demographics/Firmographics:**
+
+- Size and scale characteristics
+- Geographic distribution
+- Industry/vertical (for B2B)
+
+**Psychographics:**
+
+- Values and priorities
+- Decision-making process
+- Technology adoption patterns
+
+**Behavioral Patterns:**
+
+- Current solutions used
+- Purchasing frequency
+- Budget allocation
+
+<invoke-task halt="true">{project-root}/bmad/core/tasks/adv-elicit.xml</invoke-task>
+<template-output>segment*profile*{{segment_number}}</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="5b" title="Jobs-to-be-Done Framework">
+<action>Apply JTBD framework to understand customer needs</action>
+
+For primary segment, identify:
+
+**Functional Jobs:**
+
+- Main tasks to accomplish
+- Problems to solve
+- Goals to achieve
+
+**Emotional Jobs:**
+
+- Feelings sought
+- Anxieties to avoid
+- Status desires
+
+**Social Jobs:**
+
+- How they want to be perceived
+- Group dynamics
+- Peer influences
+
+<ask>Would you like to conduct actual customer interviews or surveys to validate these jobs? (We can create an interview guide)</ask>
+
+<template-output>jobs_to_be_done</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="5c" title="Willingness to Pay Analysis">
+<action>Research and estimate pricing sensitivity</action>
+
+Analyze:
+
+- Current spending on alternatives
+- Budget allocation for this category
+- Value perception indicators
+- Price points of substitutes
+
+<template-output>pricing_analysis</template-output>
+</step>
+</step>
+
+<step n="6" goal="Understand the competitive landscape">
+<action>Ask if they know their main competitors or if you should search for them.</action>
+
+<step n="6a" title="Discover competitors together">
+<action if="user doesn't know competitors">Search for competitors:
+
+<WebSearch>{{product_category}} competitors {{geographic_scope}} {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
+<WebSearch>{{product_category}} alternatives comparison {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
+<WebSearch>top {{product_category}} companies {{current_year}}</WebSearch>
+</action>
+
+<action>Present findings. Ask them to pick the 3-5 that matter most (most concerned about or curious to understand).</action>
+</step>
+
+<step n="6b" title="Research each competitor together" repeat="for-each-selected-competitor">
+<action>For each competitor, search for:
+- Company overview, product features
+- Pricing model
+- Funding and recent news
+- Customer reviews and ratings
+
+Use {{current_year}} in all searches.
+</action>
+
+<action>Share findings with sources. Ask what jumps out and if it matches expectations.</action>
+
+<action if="user has follow-up questions">Dig deeper based on their interests</action>
+
+<invoke-task halt="true">{project-root}/bmad/core/tasks/adv-elicit.xml</invoke-task>
+<template-output>competitor*analysis*{{competitor_name}}</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="6c" title="Competitive Positioning Map">
+<action>Create positioning analysis</action>
+
+Map competitors on key dimensions:
+
+- Price vs. Value
+- Feature completeness vs. Ease of use
+- Market segment focus
+- Technology approach
+- Business model
+
+Identify:
+
+- Gaps in the market
+- Over-served areas
+- Differentiation opportunities
+
+<template-output>competitive_positioning</template-output>
+</step>
+</step>
+
+<step n="7" goal="Industry Forces Analysis">
+<action>Apply Porter's Five Forces framework</action>
+
+<critical>Use specific evidence from research, not generic assessments</critical>
+
+Analyze each force with concrete examples:
+
+<step n="7a" title="Supplier Power">
+Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
+- Key suppliers and dependencies
+- Switching costs
+- Concentration of suppliers
+- Forward integration threat
+</step>
+
+<step n="7b" title="Buyer Power">
+Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
+- Customer concentration
+- Price sensitivity
+- Switching costs for customers
+- Backward integration threat
+</step>
+
+<step n="7c" title="Competitive Rivalry">
+Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
+- Number and strength of competitors
+- Industry growth rate
+- Exit barriers
+- Differentiation levels
+</step>
+
+<step n="7d" title="Threat of New Entry">
+Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
+- Capital requirements
+- Regulatory barriers
+- Network effects
+- Brand loyalty
+</step>
+
+<step n="7e" title="Threat of Substitutes">
+Rate: [Low/Medium/High]
+- Alternative solutions
+- Switching costs to substitutes
+- Price-performance trade-offs
+</step>
+
+<template-output>porters_five_forces</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="8" goal="Market Trends and Future Outlook">
+<action>Identify trends and future market dynamics</action>
+
+Research and analyze:
+
+**Technology Trends:**
+
+- Emerging technologies impacting market
+- Digital transformation effects
+- Automation possibilities
+
+**Social/Cultural Trends:**
+
+- Changing customer behaviors
+- Generational shifts
+- Social movements impact
+
+**Economic Trends:**
+
+- Macroeconomic factors
+- Industry-specific economics
+- Investment trends
+
+**Regulatory Trends:**
+
+- Upcoming regulations
+- Compliance requirements
+- Policy direction
+
+<ask>Should we explore any specific emerging technologies or disruptions that could reshape this market?</ask>
+
+<template-output>market_trends</template-output>
+<template-output>future_outlook</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="9" goal="Opportunity Assessment and Strategy">
+<action>Synthesize research into strategic opportunities</action>
+
+<step n="9a" title="Opportunity Identification">
+Based on all research, identify top 3-5 opportunities:
+
+For each opportunity:
+
+- Description and rationale
+- Size estimate (from SOM)
+- Resource requirements
+- Time to market
+- Risk assessment
+- Success criteria
+
+<invoke-task halt="true">{project-root}/bmad/core/tasks/adv-elicit.xml</invoke-task>
+<template-output>market_opportunities</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="9b" title="Go-to-Market Recommendations">
+Develop GTM strategy based on research:
+
+**Positioning Strategy:**
+
+- Value proposition refinement
+- Differentiation approach
+- Messaging framework
+
+**Target Segment Sequencing:**
+
+- Beachhead market selection
+- Expansion sequence
+- Segment-specific approaches
+
+**Channel Strategy:**
+
+- Distribution channels
+- Partnership opportunities
+- Marketing channels
+
+**Pricing Strategy:**
+
+- Model recommendation
+- Price points
+- Value metrics
+
+<template-output>gtm_strategy</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="9c" title="Risk Analysis">
+Identify and assess key risks:
+
+**Market Risks:**
+
+- Demand uncertainty
+- Market timing
+- Economic sensitivity
+
+**Competitive Risks:**
+
+- Competitor responses
+- New entrants
+- Technology disruption
+
+**Execution Risks:**
+
+- Resource requirements
+- Capability gaps
+- Scaling challenges
+
+For each risk: Impact (H/M/L) × Probability (H/M/L) = Risk Score
+Provide mitigation strategies.
+
+<template-output>risk_assessment</template-output>
+</step>
+</step>
+
+<step n="10" goal="Financial Projections" optional="true" if="enable_financial_modeling == true">
+<action>Create financial model based on market research</action>
+
+<ask>Would you like to create a financial model with revenue projections based on the market analysis?</ask>
+
+<check if="yes">
+  Build 3-year projections:
+
+- Revenue model based on SOM scenarios
+- Customer acquisition projections
+- Unit economics
+- Break-even analysis
+- Funding requirements
+
+<template-output>financial_projections</template-output>
+</check>
+
+</step>
+
+<step n="11" goal="Synthesize findings together into executive summary">
+
+<critical>This is the last major content section - make it collaborative</critical>
+
+<action>Review the research journey together. Share high-level summaries of market size, competitive dynamics, customer insights. Ask what stands out most - what surprised them or confirmed their thinking.</action>
+
+<action>Collaboratively craft the narrative:
+
+- What's the headline? (The ONE thing someone should know)
+- What are the 3-5 critical insights?
+- Recommended path forward?
+- Key risks?
+
+This should read like a strategic brief, not a data dump.
+</action>
+
+<action>Draft executive summary and share. Ask if it captures the essence and if anything is missing or overemphasized.</action>
+
+<template-output>executive_summary</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="12" goal="Validate sources and compile report">
+
+<critical>MANDATORY SOURCE VALIDATION - Do NOT skip this step!</critical>
+
+<action>Before finalizing, conduct source audit:
+
+Review every major claim in the report and verify:
+
+**For Market Size Claims:**
+
+- [ ] At least 2 independent sources cited with URLs
+- [ ] Sources are from {{current_year}} or within 2 years
+- [ ] Sources are credible (Gartner, Forrester, govt data, reputable pubs)
+- [ ] Conflicting estimates are noted with all sources
+
+**For Competitive Data:**
+
+- [ ] Competitor information has source URLs
+- [ ] Pricing data is current and sourced
+- [ ] Funding data is verified with dates
+- [ ] Customer reviews/ratings have source links
+
+**For Growth Rates and Projections:**
+
+- [ ] CAGR and forecast data are sourced
+- [ ] Methodology is explained or linked
+- [ ] Multiple analyst estimates are compared if available
+
+**For Customer Insights:**
+
+- [ ] Persona data is based on real research (cited)
+- [ ] Survey/interview data has sample size and source
+- [ ] Behavioral claims are backed by studies/data
+      </action>
+
+<action>Count and document source quality:
+
+- Total sources cited: {{count_all_sources}}
+- High confidence (2+ sources): {{high_confidence_claims}}
+- Single source (needs verification): {{single_source_claims}}
+- Uncertain/speculative: {{low_confidence_claims}}
+
+If {{single_source_claims}} or {{low_confidence_claims}} is high, consider additional research.
+</action>
+
+<action>Compile full report with ALL sources properly referenced:
+
+Generate the complete market research report using the template:
+
+- Ensure every statistic has inline citation: [Source: Company, Year, URL]
+- Populate all {{sources_*}} template variables
+- Include confidence levels for major claims
+- Add References section with full source list
+  </action>
+
+<action>Present source quality summary to user:
+
+"I've completed the research with {{count_all_sources}} total sources:
+
+- {{high_confidence_claims}} claims verified with multiple sources
+- {{single_source_claims}} claims from single sources (marked for verification)
+- {{low_confidence_claims}} claims with low confidence or speculation
+
+Would you like me to strengthen any areas with additional research?"
+</action>
+
+<ask>Would you like to review any specific sections before finalizing? Are there any additional analyses you'd like to include?</ask>
+
+<goto step="9a" if="user requests changes">Return to refine opportunities</goto>
+
+<template-output>final_report_ready</template-output>
+<template-output>source_audit_complete</template-output>
+</step>
+
+<step n="13" goal="Appendices and Supporting Materials" optional="true">
+<ask>Would you like to include detailed appendices with calculations, full competitor profiles, or raw research data?</ask>
+
+<check if="yes">
+  Create appendices with:
+
+- Detailed TAM/SAM/SOM calculations
+- Full competitor profiles
+- Customer interview notes
+- Data sources and methodology
+- Financial model details
+- Glossary of terms
+
+<template-output>appendices</template-output>
+</check>
+
+</step>
+
+<step n="14" goal="Update status file on completion" tag="workflow-status">
+<check if="standalone_mode != true">
+  <action>Load the FULL file: {output_folder}/bmm-workflow-status.yaml</action>
+  <action>Find workflow_status key "research"</action>
+  <critical>ONLY write the file path as the status value - no other text, notes, or metadata</critical>
+  <action>Update workflow_status["research"] = "{output_folder}/bmm-research-{{research_mode}}-{{date}}.md"</action>
+  <action>Save file, preserving ALL comments and structure including STATUS DEFINITIONS</action>
+
+<action>Find first non-completed workflow in workflow_status (next workflow to do)</action>
+<action>Determine next agent from path file based on next workflow</action>
+</check>
+
+<output>**✅ Research Complete ({{research_mode}} mode)**
+
+**Research Report:**
+
+- Research report generated and saved to {output_folder}/bmm-research-{{research_mode}}-{{date}}.md
+
+{{#if standalone_mode != true}}
+**Status Updated:**
+
+- Progress tracking updated: research marked complete
+- Next workflow: {{next_workflow}}
+  {{else}}
+  **Note:** Running in standalone mode (no progress tracking)
+  {{/if}}
+
+**Next Steps:**
+
+{{#if standalone_mode != true}}
+
+- **Next workflow:** {{next_workflow}} ({{next_agent}} agent)
+- **Optional:** Review findings with stakeholders, or run additional analysis workflows (product-brief, game-brief, etc.)
+
+Check status anytime with: `workflow-status`
+{{else}}
+Since no workflow is in progress:
+
+- Review research findings
+- Refer to the BMM workflow guide if unsure what to do next
+- Or run `workflow-init` to create a workflow path and get guided next steps
+  {{/if}}
+  </output>
+  </step>
+
+</workflow>