arkaos 2.53.0 → 2.54.0

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Files changed (6) hide show
  1. package/VERSION +1 -1
  2. package/departments/strategy/skills/growth-strategy/SKILL.md +135 -6
  3. package/departments/strategy/workflows/blue-ocean.yaml +136 -0
  4. package/departments/strategy/workflows/growth.yaml +139 -0
  5. package/package.json +1 -1
  6. package/pyproject.toml +1 -1
package/VERSION CHANGED
@@ -1 +1 @@
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- 2.53.0
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+ 2.54.0
package/departments/strategy/skills/growth-strategy/SKILL.md CHANGED
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  ---
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  name: strat/growth-strategy
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  description: >
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- Growth strategy: market penetration, development, product development, diversification.
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+ Growth strategy using Ansoff Matrix + adjacency framework + Greiner growth
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+ phases. Picks the next growth vector with risk-adjusted feasibility and a
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+ 12-month execution roadmap.
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  allowed-tools: [Read, Write, Edit, Bash, Grep, Glob, Agent, WebFetch, WebSearch]
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  ---
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@@ -21,12 +23,139 @@ does not replace the vault.
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  # Growth Strategy — `/strat growth <business>`
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- > **Agent:** Tomas (Chief Strategist) | **Framework:** Ansoff Matrix + Adjacencies
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+ > **Lead:** Tomas (Chief Strategist) | **Cross-dept:** Helena (CFO) + Rita (Market Analyst) | **Frameworks:** Ansoff Matrix + Chris Zook Adjacencies + Greiner Growth Phases
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- ## What It Does
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+ ## What ships
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- Growth strategy: market penetration, development, product development, diversification.
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+ A production growth strategy in 6 deliverables:
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- ## Output
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+ 1. **Greiner phase diagnosis** — current phase + impending crisis prediction
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+ 2. **Ansoff Matrix mapping** — concrete options per quadrant with market sizing
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+ 3. **Adjacency analysis** — ranked adjacencies by distance × capability × attractiveness
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+ 4. **Growth vector selection** — primary + assist with explicit trade-off rationale
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+ 5. **Risk profile** — pre-mortem with top 5 risks + early warning signals + mitigations
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+ 6. **12-month execution roadmap** — quarter-by-quarter milestones with named owners
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- Growth roadmap with Ansoff quadrant, risk assessment, and resource requirements
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+ ## Greiner Growth Phases (where are you in the curve?)
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+
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+ Larry Greiner's model says companies grow through 6 evolutionary phases, each ending in a predictable crisis. Knowing the phase predicts the crisis.
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+
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+ | # | Phase | Driver | Predictable Crisis | Resolution |
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+ |---|---|---|---|---|
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+ | 1 | **Creativity** | Founder vision + product-market fit | Leadership Crisis (founder can't manage operations) | Hire professional management |
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+ | 2 | **Direction** | Top-down management + functional structure | Autonomy Crisis (middle managers blocked by HQ) | Delegate authority downward |
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+ | 3 | **Delegation** | Decentralised operating units | Control Crisis (HQ loses visibility into BUs) | Build coordination systems |
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+ | 4 | **Coordination** | Formal systems, planning, ROI gates | Red Tape Crisis (bureaucracy strangles decisions) | Collaboration via teams |
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+ | 5 | **Collaboration** | Cross-functional teams, matrix structure | Growth Crisis (internal saturation, need new sources) | External alliances / M&A |
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+ | 6 | **Alliances** | Partnerships, joint ventures, ecosystems | Identity Crisis (who are we?) | Reinvention / spin-out |
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+
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+ Diagnose by symptoms, not org-chart vibes. Each phase has specific decision-making patterns and pain points.
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+
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+ ## The Ansoff Matrix (4 growth quadrants)
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+
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+ The 2×2 matrix on Products (existing / new) × Markets (existing / new). Each quadrant has a different risk profile.
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+
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+ ```
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+ EXISTING PRODUCTS NEW PRODUCTS
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+ EXISTING MARKETS Market Penetration Product Development
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+ (lowest risk) (medium-high risk)
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+ - Cross-sell - Adjacent product
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+ - Up-sell - Same customer expansion
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+ - Win share from competitor
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+
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+ NEW MARKETS Market Development Diversification
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+ (medium risk) (highest risk)
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+ - New geo - New product + new market
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+ - New segment - True new business
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+ - New channel - Acquisition often required
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+ ```
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+
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+ Default risk-adjusted sequencing: start with **Market Penetration** until the law of diminishing returns hits (typically 70-80% market share in a defined segment). Then choose between Market Development and Product Development based on capability fit. Diversification only when first three quadrants are exhausted or a structural opportunity is undeniable.
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+
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+ ## Chris Zook Adjacency Framework
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+
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+ For each candidate growth move, score on three dimensions:
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+
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+ 1. **Distance from core** (1-10): How far is this from your repeatable model? 1 = same customer + same product + tweaks. 10 = different customer + different product + different capability.
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+ 2. **Capability fit** (1-10): Does it use your existing strengths? 10 = leverages your core competence. 1 = requires building all-new capability.
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+ 3. **Market attractiveness** (1-10): Size × growth × profitability of the target market.
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+
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+ Zook's empirical finding: **adjacency success rate drops 50% with every step away from core**. So the math:
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+
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+ ```
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+ expected_success_rate = 0.27 × (0.5 ^ distance_from_core_steps) × capability_fit_factor × market_factor
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+ ```
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+
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+ Adjacencies more than 2 steps from core have <10% historical success rate. Pick the closest viable adjacency, not the most attractive one.
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+
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+ ## Growth Vector Decision Tree
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+
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+ ```
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+ Is current retention healthy (D30 > category norm)?
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+ NO → Fix retention. No growth vector survives broken retention.
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+ YES → Continue.
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+
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+ Have you saturated current market segment (>70% share or stalled)?
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+ NO → Market Penetration is the default. Cross-sell, up-sell, win share.
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+ YES → Continue.
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+
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+ Do you have unique capability that transfers?
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+ YES → Product Development (new product to existing customers) OR
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+ Market Development (existing product to new segment / geo).
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+ Choose by capability fit score.
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+ NO → Acquisition or partnership required. Diversification.
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+ ```
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+
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+ ## Risk Profile Template
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+
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+ Every growth vector ships with a pre-mortem. Format:
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+
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+ ```yaml
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+ top_5_risks:
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+ - name: <specific risk>
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+ probability: low | medium | high
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+ impact: low | medium | high | terminal
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+ early_warning_signal: <observable signal in first 90 days>
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+ mitigation: <named action if signal fires>
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+ owner: <named human>
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+ ```
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+
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+ Risks must be specific. "Market might shift" is vibes; "if our top 3 partners renegotiate pricing in Q2 our gross margin drops below the cost floor" is a risk.
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+
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+ ## 12-Month Roadmap Template
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+
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+ ```
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+ Q1: Foundation
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+ Milestone: [specific outcome, not activity]
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+ Owner: [named human]
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+ Success metric: [measurable number]
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+
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+ Q2: First Proof
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+ Milestone: [first measurable signal that vector is working]
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+ Owner: [named]
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+ Decision gate: [continue / pivot criteria]
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+
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+ Q3: Scale or Pivot
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+ Decision: [scale signal observed? Y/N]
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+ If scale: doubling milestone
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+ If pivot: alternate vector selected
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+
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+ Q4: Compound
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+ Milestone: [vector now self-sustaining or absorbed into ops]
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+ Owner: [named]
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+ Year-end metric: [measurable target tied to original brief]
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+ ```
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+
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+ Every quarter has a decision gate, not just a milestone. Roadmaps without decision gates become wish lists.
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+
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+ ## Common Failure Modes
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+
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+ 1. **Skipping retention check** — chasing growth on broken retention amplifies churn
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+ 2. **Ansoff diagonal-jumping** — jumping straight to Diversification without proving Market Penetration is exhausted
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+ 3. **Capability vanity** — picking the most attractive adjacency instead of the highest-fit one
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+ 4. **Greiner phase denial** — refusing to acknowledge the next crisis (e.g., founder won't delegate, stays in Direction phase past breakeven)
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+ 5. **Roadmap without decision gates** — quarterly milestones without "continue / pivot" criteria become marketing for the existing strategy
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+
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+ ## Output → Obsidian: `WizardingCode/Strategy/Growth/<business>-<date>/`
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+
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+ Delivers: Greiner phase diagnosis + Ansoff Matrix mapping + adjacency analysis + vector selection rationale + risk profile (5 risks with mitigations) + 12-month roadmap with decision gates + 1-page executive summary.
package/departments/strategy/workflows/blue-ocean.yaml ADDED
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+ id: strat-blue-ocean
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+ name: Blue Ocean Strategy
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+ description: Blue Ocean Strategy canvas with ERRC grid (Eliminate / Reduce / Raise / Create) — define uncontested market space
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+ department: strategy
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+ tier: enterprise
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+ command: "/strat blue-ocean"
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+ requires_branch: false
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+ requires_spec: false
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+ quality_gate_required: true
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+
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+ phases:
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+ - id: brief
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+ name: Market Brief
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+ description: Define the current market, the industry's competitive factors, and the customer base under analysis
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: Frame current market, named competitors, customer segments
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+ gate:
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+ type: user_approval
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+ description: User confirms market scope, competitor set, customer segments
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+
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+ - id: red-ocean-canvas
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+ name: Red Ocean Strategy Canvas
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+ description: Map the current industry on the Strategy Canvas — 6-10 competitive factors with relative levels
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: Identify 6-10 competitive factors the industry competes on; score each competitor 1-10
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+ gate:
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+ type: user_approval
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+ description: User approves the red ocean canvas before ERRC analysis
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+ outputs:
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+ - type: document
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+ format: markdown
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+ obsidian_path: "WizardingCode/Strategy/BlueOcean/Canvas/"
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+ description: Red Ocean Strategy Canvas with competitor scores per factor
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+
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+ - id: errc-grid
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+ name: ERRC Grid
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+ description: Apply the ERRC framework — Eliminate / Reduce / Raise / Create — to redesign the value curve
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: ERRC analysis on each competitive factor with rationale
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+ - agent_id: market-analyst-rita
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+ role: Non-customer analysis — what would the 3 tiers of non-customers value?
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+ parallel: true
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+ gate:
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+ type: user_approval
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+ description: User approves the ERRC grid
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+
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+ - id: non-customer-analysis
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+ name: Non-Customer Analysis
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+ description: Map the 3 tiers of non-customers (Soon-to-be, Refusing, Unexplored) and what would convert each tier
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: market-analyst-rita
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+ role: Define 3 non-customer tiers with their reasons for not buying and conversion triggers
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+ gate:
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+ type: user_approval
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+ description: User approves non-customer analysis
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+
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+ - id: blue-ocean-canvas
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+ name: Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas
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+ description: Draw the new value curve — the blue ocean position based on ERRC + non-customer insights
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas with new value curve; quantify divergence from red ocean
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+ gate:
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+ type: user_approval
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+ description: User approves the blue ocean canvas before viability test
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+ outputs:
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+ - type: document
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+ format: markdown
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+ obsidian_path: "WizardingCode/Strategy/BlueOcean/Canvas/"
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+ description: Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas with new value curve and divergence analysis
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+
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+ - id: viability-test
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+ name: Commercial Viability Test
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+ description: Apply the BOS Sequence — Utility, Price, Cost, Adoption — to test whether the blue ocean is commercially viable
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: BOS Sequence test (Buyer Utility Map, Strategic Pricing, Target Cost, Adoption Hurdles)
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+ - agent_id: cfo-helena
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+ role: Cost feasibility check — does the target cost math work given the price corridor?
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+ parallel: true
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+ gate:
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+ type: user_approval
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+ description: User approves commercial viability before execution plan
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+
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+ - id: execution-plan
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+ name: Execution Plan
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+ description: 90-day execution — first product/service move, channels, organisational changes
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: 90-day execution plan with first move, channel implications, organisational changes
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+ gate:
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+ type: user_approval
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+ description: User approves the 90-day execution plan
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+
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+ - id: self-critique
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+ name: Self-Critique
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+ description: Stress-test the blue ocean — is the divergence real? Are non-customer triggers credible? Does the cost math close?
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: Coherence + viability + execution feasibility cross-check
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+ gate:
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+ type: auto
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+
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+ - id: quality-gate
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+ name: Quality Gate
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+ model_override: opus
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+ description: Mandatory quality review
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: cqo-marta
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+ role: Orchestrate quality review
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+ - agent_id: copy-director-eduardo
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+ role: Canvas labels, non-customer prose, no clichés
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+ parallel: true
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+ - agent_id: tech-director-francisca
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+ role: Visual canvas integrity, ERRC grid completeness, viability test math
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+ parallel: true
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+ gate:
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+ type: quality_gate
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+ required_verdict: APPROVED
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+
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+ - id: delivery
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+ name: Blue Ocean Package Delivery
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+ description: Compile the full blue ocean package
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: Full blue ocean package + 1-page executive summary
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+ gate:
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+ type: auto
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+ outputs:
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+ - type: document
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+ format: markdown
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+ obsidian_path: "WizardingCode/Strategy/BlueOcean/"
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+ description: Complete blue ocean package — red ocean canvas + ERRC grid + non-customer analysis + blue ocean canvas + viability test + execution plan
package/departments/strategy/workflows/growth.yaml ADDED
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+ id: strat-growth
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+ name: Growth Strategy
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+ description: Growth strategy using Ansoff Matrix + adjacencies + Greiner growth phases — pick the next growth vector with risk-adjusted feasibility
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+ department: strategy
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+ tier: enterprise
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+ command: "/strat growth"
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+ requires_branch: false
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+ requires_spec: false
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+ quality_gate_required: true
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+
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+ phases:
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+ - id: brief
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+ name: Growth Brief
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+ description: Define current business state, current revenue mix, current growth rate, runway, success metric
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: Frame current business — products, markets, revenue mix, growth rate, runway
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+ gate:
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+ type: user_approval
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+ description: User confirms business context and growth target
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+
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+ - id: greiner-diagnosis
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+ name: Greiner Growth Phase Diagnosis
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+ description: Identify which Greiner growth phase the business is in (Creativity / Direction / Delegation / Coordination / Collaboration / Alliances) and the predictable crisis
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: Greiner phase diagnosis with evidence; name the impending crisis
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+ gate:
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+ type: user_approval
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+ description: User approves Greiner diagnosis
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+ outputs:
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+ - type: document
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+ format: markdown
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+ obsidian_path: "WizardingCode/Strategy/Growth/Diagnosis/"
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+ description: Greiner growth phase diagnosis with crisis prediction
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+
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+ - id: ansoff-matrix
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+ name: Ansoff Matrix Analysis
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+ description: Map growth options across the 4 Ansoff quadrants (Market Penetration / Market Development / Product Development / Diversification)
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: Ansoff Matrix mapping with concrete options per quadrant
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+ - agent_id: market-analyst-rita
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+ role: Market sizing per quadrant option
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+ parallel: true
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+ gate:
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+ type: user_approval
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+ description: User approves Ansoff Matrix mapping before adjacency analysis
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+
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+ - id: adjacency-analysis
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+ name: Adjacency Analysis
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+ description: Apply Chris Zook's adjacency framework — score each adjacency by distance from core, capability fit, market attractiveness
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: Adjacency scoring (distance from core × capability fit × market attractiveness)
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+ - agent_id: cfo-helena
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+ role: Investment requirement and payback per adjacency
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+ parallel: true
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+ gate:
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+ type: user_approval
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+ description: User approves adjacency scoring
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+ outputs:
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+ - type: document
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+ format: markdown
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+ obsidian_path: "WizardingCode/Strategy/Growth/Adjacencies/"
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+ description: Ranked adjacency analysis with investment + payback
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+
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+ - id: vector-selection
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+ name: Growth Vector Selection
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+ description: Pick the primary growth vector + assist vector based on Greiner phase, Ansoff quadrant, adjacency ranking
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: Vector selection with explicit trade-off rationale
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+ gate:
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+ type: user_approval
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+ description: User approves primary + assist growth vector
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+
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+ - id: risk-feasibility
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+ name: Risk & Feasibility
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+ description: Stress-test the chosen vector — what kills it? What signals indicate it's working / failing?
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: Pre-mortem analysis — top 5 risks + early warning signals + mitigation per risk
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+ - agent_id: cfo-helena
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+ role: Runway impact per vector, breakeven scenario, downside math
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+ parallel: true
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+ gate:
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+ type: user_approval
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+ description: User approves risk profile
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+
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+ - id: execution-roadmap
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+ name: 12-Month Execution Roadmap
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+ description: Quarter-by-quarter milestones, owner per milestone, success metric per quarter
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: 12-month roadmap with quarterly milestones and named owners
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+ gate:
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+ type: user_approval
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+ description: User approves the 12-month roadmap
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+
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+ - id: self-critique
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+ name: Self-Critique
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+ description: Stress-test coherence — does Greiner phase support the chosen vector? Does Ansoff position match adjacency ranking?
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: Coherence check across Greiner / Ansoff / adjacency / vector / roadmap
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+ gate:
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+ type: auto
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+
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+ - id: quality-gate
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+ name: Quality Gate
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+ model_override: opus
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+ description: Mandatory quality review
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: cqo-marta
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+ role: Orchestrate quality review
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+ - agent_id: copy-director-eduardo
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+ role: Diagnosis prose, vector rationale, no clichés
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+ parallel: true
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+ - agent_id: tech-director-francisca
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+ role: Roadmap executability, milestone measurability, owner specificity
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+ parallel: true
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+ gate:
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+ type: quality_gate
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+ required_verdict: APPROVED
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+
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+ - id: delivery
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+ name: Growth Strategy Package Delivery
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+ description: Compile the full growth strategy package
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+ agents:
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+ - agent_id: strategy-director-tomas
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+ role: Full growth package + 1-page executive summary
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+ gate:
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+ type: auto
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+ outputs:
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+ - type: document
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+ format: markdown
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+ obsidian_path: "WizardingCode/Strategy/Growth/"
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+ description: Complete growth package — Greiner diagnosis + Ansoff Matrix + adjacency analysis + vector selection + risk profile + 12-month roadmap
package/package.json CHANGED
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  {
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  "name": "arkaos",
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- "version": "2.53.0",
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+ "version": "2.54.0",
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  "description": "The Operating System for AI Agent Teams",
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  "type": "module",
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  "bin": {
package/pyproject.toml CHANGED
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  [project]
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  name = "arkaos-core"
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- version = "2.53.0"
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+ version = "2.54.0"
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  description = "Core engine for ArkaOS — The Operating System for AI Agent Teams"
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  readme = "README.md"
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  license = {text = "MIT"}