argustack 0.1.4 → 0.1.6

package/dist/mcp/server.js

@@ -19,7 +19,6 @@ import dotenv from 'dotenv';
 import { findWorkspaceRoot } from '../workspace/resolver.js';
 import { readConfig, getEnabledSources } from '../workspace/config.js';
 import { SOURCE_META } from '../core/types/index.js';
-// ─── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 /** Extract error message from an unknown catch value */
 function getErrorMessage(err) {
     if (err instanceof Error) {
@@ -41,7 +40,6 @@ function str(value) {
     if (value instanceof Date) {
         return value.toISOString();
     }
-    // Objects, arrays, symbols, functions — use JSON for a meaningful representation
     return JSON.stringify(value);
 }
 /** Load workspace context with diagnostic info on failure */
@@ -87,7 +85,6 @@ async function createAdapters(workspaceRoot) {
     });
     return { source, storage };
 }
-// ─── Icon ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 const mcpFilename = fileURLToPath(import.meta.url);
 const mcpPackageRoot = resolve(dirname(mcpFilename), '..', '..');
 function loadIconDataUri() {
@@ -99,7 +96,6 @@ function loadIconDataUri() {
     return `data:image/png;base64,${buf.toString('base64')}`;
 }
 const iconDataUri = loadIconDataUri();
-// ─── Server ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 /** MCP server instance — exported for testing via InMemoryTransport */
 export const server = new McpServer({
     name: 'Argustack',
@@ -113,7 +109,6 @@ export const server = new McpServer({
             }],
     } : {}),
 });
-// ─── Tool: workspace_info ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 server.registerTool('workspace_info', {
     description: 'Get information about the current Argustack workspace — configured sources, paths, database connection',
 }, () => {
@@ -141,7 +136,6 @@ server.registerTool('workspace_info', {
     ].join('\n');
     return { content: [{ type: 'text', text }] };
 });
-// ─── Tool: list_projects ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 server.registerTool('list_projects', {
     description: 'List all Jira projects available in the configured Jira instance',
 }, async () => {
@@ -176,7 +170,6 @@ server.registerTool('list_projects', {
         };
     }
 });
-// ─── Tool: pull_jira ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 server.registerTool('pull_jira', {
     description: 'Pull all issues from Jira into Argustack PostgreSQL database. Supports incremental pulls (only new/updated issues). Use project parameter to pull a specific project.',
     inputSchema: {
@@ -230,7 +223,6 @@ server.registerTool('pull_jira', {
         };
     }
 });
-// ─── Tool: query_issues ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 server.registerTool('query_issues', {
     description: 'Search and query Jira issues stored in the local Argustack database. Supports full-text search, filtering by project/status/assignee, and SQL for complex queries.',
     inputSchema: {
@@ -256,12 +248,10 @@ server.registerTool('query_issues', {
         let sqlQuery;
         let params;
         if (sql) {
-            // Raw SQL mode — for power users / Claude
             sqlQuery = sql;
             params = [];
         }
         else {
-            // Build query from filters
             const conditions = [];
             params = [];
             let paramIdx = 1;
@@ -291,7 +281,6 @@ server.registerTool('query_issues', {
                 paramIdx++;
             }
             const where = conditions.length > 0 ? `WHERE ${conditions.join(' AND ')}` : '';
-            // LIMIT is safe — maxResults is always a number from z.number() or default 50
             sqlQuery = `
           SELECT issue_key, summary, status, priority, assignee, issue_type,
                  project_key, created, updated
@@ -308,13 +297,11 @@ server.registerTool('query_issues', {
                 content: [{ type: 'text', text: 'No issues found matching your criteria.' }],
             };
         }
-        // Format results
         const lines = result.rows.map((row) => {
             const typed = row;
             if (typed.issue_key) {
                 return `${typed.issue_key} [${str(typed.status) || '?'}] ${str(typed.summary)} (${str(typed.assignee) || 'unassigned'})`;
             }
-            // For raw SQL, just stringify the row
             return JSON.stringify(row);
         });
         return {
@@ -335,7 +322,6 @@ server.registerTool('query_issues', {
         };
     }
 });
-// ─── Tool: get_issue ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 server.registerTool('get_issue', {
     description: 'Get full details of a specific issue by key, including description, comments, changelogs, and all custom fields.',
     inputSchema: {
@@ -351,7 +337,6 @@ server.registerTool('get_issue', {
     }
     const { storage } = await createAdapters(ws.root);
     try {
-        // Get issue
         const issueResult = await storage.query(`SELECT * FROM issues WHERE issue_key = $1`, [issueKey.toUpperCase()]);
         if (issueResult.rows.length === 0) {
             await storage.close();
@@ -361,13 +346,10 @@ server.registerTool('get_issue', {
             };
         }
         const issue = issueResult.rows[0];
-        // Get comments
         const commentsResult = await storage.query(`SELECT author, body, created FROM issue_comments WHERE issue_key = $1 ORDER BY created`, [issueKey.toUpperCase()]);
-        // Get changelogs
         const changelogsResult = await storage.query(`SELECT author, field, from_value, to_value, changed_at
          FROM issue_changelogs WHERE issue_key = $1 ORDER BY changed_at DESC LIMIT 20`, [issueKey.toUpperCase()]);
         await storage.close();
-        // Format output
         const sections = [];
         sections.push(`# ${str(issue.issue_key)}: ${str(issue.summary)}`);
         sections.push('');
@@ -424,7 +406,6 @@ server.registerTool('get_issue', {
         };
     }
 });
-// ─── Tool: issue_stats ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 server.registerTool('issue_stats', {
     description: 'Get aggregate statistics about issues in the database — counts by status, type, project, assignee. Useful for project health overview.',
     inputSchema: {
@@ -440,7 +421,6 @@ server.registerTool('issue_stats', {
     }
     const { storage } = await createAdapters(ws.root);
     try {
-        // Use parameterized query to prevent SQL injection
         const filterClause = project ? `WHERE project_key = $1` : '';
         const filterParams = project ? [project.toUpperCase()] : [];
         const [total, byStatus, byType, byProject, byAssignee] = await Promise.all([
@@ -599,7 +579,6 @@ server.registerTool('query_commits', {
         };
     }
 });
-// ─── Tool: issue_commits ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 server.registerTool('issue_commits', {
     description: 'Cross-reference: find all Git commits that mention a Jira issue key. Shows what code was actually changed for a ticket.',
     inputSchema: {
@@ -665,7 +644,6 @@ server.registerTool('issue_commits', {
         };
     }
 });
-// ─── Tool: commit_stats ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 server.registerTool('commit_stats', {
     description: 'Aggregate statistics about Git commits — total count, top authors, most changed files, commits per day.',
     inputSchema: {
@@ -838,7 +816,6 @@ server.registerTool('query_prs', {
         };
     }
 });
-// ─── Tool: issue_prs ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 server.registerTool('issue_prs', {
     description: 'Cross-reference: find all GitHub pull requests that mention a Jira issue key. Shows which PRs implemented a ticket.',
     inputSchema: {
@@ -917,7 +894,6 @@ server.registerTool('issue_timeline', {
     const { storage } = await createAdapters(ws.root);
     const key = issueKey.toUpperCase();
     try {
-        // 5 parallel queries
         const [issueResult, changelogsResult, commitsResult, prsResult, commitFilesResult] = await Promise.all([
             storage.query(`SELECT issue_key, summary, status, issue_type, assignee, reporter, created, updated, resolved FROM issues WHERE issue_key = $1`, [key]),
             storage.query(`SELECT author, field, from_value, to_value, changed_at FROM issue_changelogs WHERE issue_key = $1 ORDER BY changed_at`, [key]),
@@ -939,7 +915,6 @@ server.registerTool('issue_timeline', {
             };
         }
         const issue = issueResult.rows[0];
-        // Fetch reviews for found PRs
         const prRows = prsResult.rows;
         const reviewsByPr = new Map();
         for (const pr of prRows) {
@@ -947,20 +922,16 @@ server.registerTool('issue_timeline', {
             reviewsByPr.set(pr.number, reviewsResult.rows);
         }
         await storage.close();
-        // Build file map for commits
         const filesByCommit = new Map();
         for (const f of commitFilesResult.rows) {
             const arr = filesByCommit.get(f.commit_hash) ?? [];
             arr.push(f);
             filesByCommit.set(f.commit_hash, arr);
         }
-        // Build timeline events
         const events = [];
-        // Issue created
         if (issue.created) {
             events.push({ date: issue.created, type: 'created', text: 'Issue created' });
         }
-        // Changelogs
         for (const raw of changelogsResult.rows) {
             const ch = raw;
             if (ch.changed_at) {
@@ -971,7 +942,6 @@ server.registerTool('issue_timeline', {
                 });
             }
         }
-        // Commits
         for (const raw of commitsResult.rows) {
             const c = raw;
             if (c.committed_at) {
@@ -983,7 +953,6 @@ server.registerTool('issue_timeline', {
                 });
             }
         }
-        // PRs opened + merged
         for (const pr of prRows) {
             if (pr.created_at) {
                 events.push({
@@ -992,7 +961,6 @@ server.registerTool('issue_timeline', {
                     text: `PR #${String(pr.number)} opened — "${str(pr.title)}" (${str(pr.author)})`,
                 });
             }
-            // Reviews
             const reviews = reviewsByPr.get(pr.number) ?? [];
             for (const r of reviews) {
                 if (r.submitted_at) {
@@ -1011,22 +979,18 @@ server.registerTool('issue_timeline', {
                 });
             }
         }
-        // Sort chronologically
         events.sort((a, b) => a.date.localeCompare(b.date));
-        // Format output
         const sections = [];
         sections.push(`=== ISSUE: ${key} ===`);
         sections.push(`Summary: ${str(issue.summary)}`);
         sections.push(`Status: ${str(issue.status)} | Type: ${str(issue.issue_type)} | Assignee: ${str(issue.assignee)}`);
         sections.push(`Created: ${str(issue.created ?? '').substring(0, 10)} | Resolved: ${str(issue.resolved ?? '').substring(0, 10) || 'n/a'}`);
         sections.push('');
-        // Timeline
         sections.push(`--- TIMELINE (${String(events.length)} events) ---`);
         for (const ev of events) {
             sections.push(`[${ev.date.substring(0, 10)}] ${ev.text}`);
         }
         sections.push('');
-        // Commits summary
         const commitRows = commitsResult.rows;
         if (commitRows.length > 0) {
             sections.push(`--- COMMITS (${String(commitRows.length)}) ---`);
@@ -1039,7 +1003,6 @@ server.registerTool('issue_timeline', {
             }
             sections.push('');
         }
-        // PRs summary
         if (prRows.length > 0) {
             sections.push(`--- PULL REQUESTS (${String(prRows.length)}) ---`);
             for (const pr of prRows) {
@@ -1061,7 +1024,6 @@ server.registerTool('issue_timeline', {
         };
     }
 });
-// ─── Tool: query_releases ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 server.registerTool('query_releases', {
     description: 'List GitHub releases for the repository. Useful for understanding release cadence and what was shipped.',
     inputSchema: {
@@ -1126,7 +1088,6 @@ server.registerTool('query_releases', {
         };
     }
 });
-// ─── Tool: semantic_search ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 server.registerTool('semantic_search', {
     description: 'Semantic vector similarity search across issues. Uses AI embeddings to find issues by meaning, not just keywords. Requires embeddings generated first ("argustack embed").',
     inputSchema: {
@@ -1208,14 +1169,44 @@ server.registerTool('semantic_search', {
         };
     }
 });
+function calculateFamiliarityFactor(familiarityRows, taskComponents) {
+    if (!taskComponents || taskComponents.length === 0 || familiarityRows.length === 0) {
+        return { factor: 1.0, explanation: 'No component data' };
+    }
+    const matching = familiarityRows.filter((f) => taskComponents.some((c) => c.toLowerCase() === f.component.toLowerCase()));
+    if (matching.length === 0) {
+        return { factor: 1.0, explanation: 'No history in these components' };
+    }
+    const totalResolved = matching.reduce((sum, c) => sum + c.resolved_count, 0);
+    const factor = Math.max(0.6, Math.min(1.0, 1.0 - 0.08 * totalResolved));
+    const compNames = matching.map((c) => `${c.component}(${String(c.resolved_count)})`).join(', ');
+    return { factor, explanation: `${String(totalResolved)} resolved in ${compNames} — ×${factor.toFixed(2)}` };
+}
+function calculateBaseHours(metrics) {
+    if (metrics.length === 0) {
+        return { hours: 0, method: 'no data' };
+    }
+    const sorted = [...metrics].sort((a, b) => a.hours - b.hours);
+    const trimCount = metrics.length > 5 ? Math.max(1, Math.floor(metrics.length * 0.1)) : 0;
+    const trimmed = sorted.slice(trimCount, sorted.length - trimCount || undefined);
+    const totalWeight = trimmed.reduce((sum, m) => sum + m.weight, 0);
+    if (totalWeight === 0) {
+        const simple = trimmed.reduce((sum, m) => sum + m.hours, 0) / trimmed.length;
+        return { hours: simple, method: `simple average (${String(trimmed.length)}/${String(metrics.length)} tasks)` };
+    }
+    const weighted = trimmed.reduce((sum, m) => sum + m.hours * m.weight, 0) / totalWeight;
+    return { hours: weighted, method: `weighted trimmed mean (${String(trimmed.length)}/${String(metrics.length)} tasks)` };
+}
 server.registerTool('estimate', {
-    description: 'Predict effort for a new task based on historical data. Finds similar completed tasks, analyzes cycle times, worklogs per developer, bug aftermath, estimate accuracy. Two key inputs: WHAT (task description) and WHO (developer).',
+    description: 'Predict how long a task will take for a specific developer. Returns TWO predictions: "without bugs" (pure development time) and "with bugs" (real cost including bug aftermath). Based on similar completed tasks, personal coefficient from full history, and component familiarity. Assignee is required — always specify who will do the task.',
     inputSchema: {
         description: z.string().describe('Description of the new task (e.g. "Stripe payment integration with subscriptions")'),
-        assignee: z.string().optional().describe('Developer name to predict for. If omitted, shows all developers who worked on similar tasks'),
+        assignee: z.string().describe('Developer name to predict for (e.g. "Dmitry Kislitsyn")'),
+        issue_type: z.string().optional().describe('Issue type: Bug, Task, Story — finds same-type analogs and uses type-specific coefficients'),
+        components: z.array(z.string()).optional().describe('Component names (e.g. ["LOC Draws", "Export"]) — finds tasks in same area and calculates familiarity'),
         limit: z.number().optional().describe('Number of similar tasks to analyze (default: 10)'),
     },
-}, async ({ description, assignee, limit }) => {
+}, async ({ description, assignee, issue_type: issueTypeInput, components, limit }) => {
     const ws = loadWorkspace();
     if (!ws.ok) {
         return {
@@ -1226,15 +1217,53 @@ server.registerTool('estimate', {
     const { storage } = await createAdapters(ws.root);
     try {
         const maxResults = limit ?? 10;
-        // 1. Find similar DONE issues via full-text search + status_category
-        const similarResult = await storage.query(`SELECT issue_key, summary, issue_type, status, assignee, created, resolved,
-                parent_key, story_points,
-                ts_rank(search_vector, plainto_tsquery('english', $1)) as rank
-         FROM issues
-         WHERE search_vector @@ plainto_tsquery('english', $1)
-           AND status_category = 'Done'
-         ORDER BY rank DESC
-         LIMIT $2`, [description, maxResults]);
+        const issueType = issueTypeInput ?? null;
+        const comps = components && components.length > 0 ? components : null;
+        const similarResult = await storage.query(`WITH text_matches AS (
+          SELECT issue_key, summary, issue_type, status, assignee, created, resolved,
+                 parent_key, story_points, components, labels, original_estimate, time_spent,
+                 ts_rank(search_vector, plainto_tsquery('english', $1)) as text_rank
+          FROM issues
+          WHERE search_vector @@ plainto_tsquery('english', $1)
+            AND status_category = 'Done'
+        ),
+        scored AS (
+          SELECT *,
+            CASE WHEN $3::text IS NOT NULL AND issue_type = $3 THEN 1.0 ELSE 0.0 END as type_match,
+            CASE WHEN $4::text[] IS NOT NULL AND array_length($4::text[], 1) > 0
+              THEN COALESCE((
+                SELECT COUNT(*)::float / array_length($4::text[], 1)
+                FROM unnest($4::text[]) q_comp
+                WHERE q_comp = ANY(components)
+              ), 0)
+              ELSE 0.0
+            END as component_overlap,
+            CASE WHEN resolved IS NOT NULL
+              THEN 1.0 / (1.0 + EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM (NOW() - resolved)) / (86400.0 * 365))
+              ELSE 0.5
+            END as temporal_weight,
+            (
+              LEAST(text_rank * 10, 1.0) * 0.3
+              + CASE WHEN $3::text IS NOT NULL AND issue_type = $3 THEN 0.25 ELSE 0.0 END
+              + CASE WHEN $4::text[] IS NOT NULL AND array_length($4::text[], 1) > 0
+                  THEN COALESCE((
+                    SELECT COUNT(*)::float / array_length($4::text[], 1)
+                    FROM unnest($4::text[]) q_comp
+                    WHERE q_comp = ANY(components)
+                  ), 0) * 0.35
+                  ELSE 0.0
+                END
+              + (CASE WHEN resolved IS NOT NULL
+                  THEN 1.0 / (1.0 + EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM (NOW() - resolved)) / (86400.0 * 365))
+                  ELSE 0.5
+                END) * 0.1
+            ) as composite_score
+          FROM text_matches
+        )
+        SELECT *, composite_score as rank
+        FROM scored
+        ORDER BY composite_score DESC
+        LIMIT $2`, [description, maxResults, issueType, comps]);
         const similar = similarResult.rows;
         if (similar.length === 0) {
             await storage.close();
@@ -1244,13 +1273,11 @@ server.registerTool('estimate', {
         }
         const issueKeys = similar.map((r) => r.issue_key);
         const keysParam = issueKeys.map((_, i) => `$${String(i + 1)}`).join(',');
-        // 2. Worklogs per developer per issue
         const worklogsResult = await storage.query(`SELECT issue_key, author, SUM(time_spent_seconds) as total_seconds
          FROM issue_worklogs
          WHERE issue_key IN (${keysParam})
          GROUP BY issue_key, author`, issueKeys);
         const worklogs = worklogsResult.rows;
-        // 3. Real developer — first assignee from changelogs (the person who started working)
         const devChangelogResult = await storage.query(`SELECT DISTINCT ON (issue_key) issue_key, to_value as dev_assignee
          FROM issue_changelogs
          WHERE issue_key IN (${keysParam})
@@ -1263,14 +1290,13 @@ server.registerTool('estimate', {
         for (const d of devChangelogs) {
             realDevMap.set(d.issue_key, d.dev_assignee);
         }
-        // 4. Commits linked to these issues — with real coding time (first → last commit)
         const commitsResult = await storage.query(`SELECT r.issue_key,
                 COUNT(*) as commits,
                 STRING_AGG(DISTINCT c.author, ', ') as authors,
                 SUM(cf_agg.additions) as total_additions,
                 SUM(cf_agg.deletions) as total_deletions,
-                MIN(c.author_date) as first_commit,
-                MAX(c.author_date) as last_commit
+                MIN(c.committed_at) as first_commit,
+                MAX(c.committed_at) as last_commit
          FROM commit_issue_refs r
          JOIN commits c ON r.commit_hash = c.hash
          LEFT JOIN (
@@ -1280,35 +1306,117 @@ server.registerTool('estimate', {
          WHERE r.issue_key IN (${keysParam})
          GROUP BY r.issue_key`, issueKeys);
         const commitData = commitsResult.rows;
-        // 5. Related issues — children (subtasks, bugs) + linked issues
-        const childrenResult = await storage.query(`SELECT i.parent_key as related_to, i.issue_key as bug_key, i.summary, i.issue_type, i.resolved, i.created
+        const notInParam = issueKeys.map((_, i) => `$${String(i + 1 + issueKeys.length)}`).join(',');
+        const childrenResult = await storage.query(`SELECT i.parent_key as related_to, i.issue_key as bug_key, i.summary, i.issue_type, i.resolved, i.created, i.time_spent as bug_time_spent
          FROM issues i
          WHERE i.parent_key IN (${keysParam})
-           AND i.issue_key NOT IN (${keysParam})`, [...issueKeys, ...issueKeys]);
-        const linkedResult = await storage.query(`SELECT il.source_key as related_to, i.issue_key as bug_key, i.summary, i.issue_type, i.resolved, i.created
+           AND i.issue_key NOT IN (${notInParam})`, [...issueKeys, ...issueKeys]);
+        const linkedResult = await storage.query(`SELECT il.source_key as related_to, i.issue_key as bug_key, i.summary, i.issue_type, i.resolved, i.created, i.time_spent as bug_time_spent
          FROM issue_links il
          JOIN issues i ON i.issue_key = il.target_key
          WHERE il.source_key IN (${keysParam})
-           AND i.issue_key NOT IN (${keysParam})`, [...issueKeys, ...issueKeys]);
+           AND i.issue_key NOT IN (${notInParam})`, [...issueKeys, ...issueKeys]);
         const bugs = [
             ...childrenResult.rows,
             ...linkedResult.rows,
         ];
-        // 6. Original estimates from raw_json
-        const rawEstimates = await storage.query(`SELECT issue_key,
-                raw_json->'fields'->>'timeoriginalestimate' as original_estimate,
-                raw_json->'fields'->>'timespent' as time_spent,
-                raw_json->'fields'->>'aggregatetimespent' as aggregate_time
+        const rawEstimates = await storage.query(`SELECT issue_key, original_estimate, time_spent
          FROM issues
          WHERE issue_key IN (${keysParam})`, issueKeys);
         const estimates = rawEstimates.rows;
+        let familiarity = { factor: 1.0, explanation: 'No component data' };
+        if (assignee && comps) {
+            const familiarityResult = await storage.query(`SELECT
+             unnest(components) as component,
+             COUNT(DISTINCT issue_key) as resolved_count,
+             AVG(time_spent::float / 3600) as avg_time_hours,
+             MAX(resolved)::text as last_resolved
+           FROM issues
+           WHERE assignee ILIKE $1
+             AND status_category = 'Done'
+             AND time_spent IS NOT NULL AND time_spent > 0
+             AND components IS NOT NULL AND array_length(components, 1) > 0
+           GROUP BY unnest(components)
+           ORDER BY resolved_count DESC`, [`%${assignee}%`]);
+            const familiarityRows = familiarityResult.rows;
+            familiarity = calculateFamiliarityFactor(familiarityRows, comps);
+        }
+        const coefficientResult = await storage.query(`WITH base AS (
+          SELECT
+            parent.assignee,
+            parent.issue_type,
+            parent.issue_key,
+            parent.original_estimate,
+            parent.time_spent,
+            COALESCE(bug_agg.bug_time, 0) as bug_time
+          FROM issues parent
+          LEFT JOIN (
+            SELECT parent_ref, SUM(bug_ts) as bug_time
+            FROM (
+              SELECT i.parent_key as parent_ref, i.time_spent as bug_ts
+              FROM issues i
+              WHERE i.issue_type IN ('Bug', 'Sub-bug')
+                AND i.time_spent IS NOT NULL AND i.time_spent > 0
+              UNION ALL
+              SELECT il.source_key as parent_ref, i.time_spent as bug_ts
+              FROM issue_links il
+              JOIN issues i ON i.issue_key = il.target_key
+              WHERE i.issue_type IN ('Bug', 'Sub-bug')
+                AND i.time_spent IS NOT NULL AND i.time_spent > 0
+            ) bugs
+            GROUP BY parent_ref
+          ) bug_agg ON bug_agg.parent_ref = parent.issue_key
+          WHERE parent.status_category = 'Done'
+            AND parent.original_estimate IS NOT NULL AND parent.original_estimate > 0
+            AND parent.time_spent IS NOT NULL AND parent.time_spent > 0
+            AND parent.issue_type NOT IN ('Bug', 'Sub-bug')
+            AND CAST(parent.time_spent AS FLOAT) / parent.original_estimate < 5.0
+        ),
+        context_coeffs AS (
+          SELECT
+            assignee,
+            COUNT(DISTINCT issue_key)::text as task_count,
+            PERCENTILE_CONT(0.5) WITHIN GROUP (
+              ORDER BY CAST(time_spent AS FLOAT) / original_estimate
+            ) as coeff_no_bugs,
+            PERCENTILE_CONT(0.5) WITHIN GROUP (
+              ORDER BY CAST(time_spent + bug_time AS FLOAT) / original_estimate
+            ) as coeff_with_bugs,
+            AVG(CAST(bug_time AS FLOAT) / NULLIF(time_spent, 0)) as bug_ratio,
+            COALESCE($1, 'all types') as context_label
+          FROM base
+          WHERE ($1::text IS NULL OR issue_type = $1)
+          GROUP BY assignee
+          HAVING COUNT(DISTINCT issue_key) >= 3
+        ),
+        global_coeffs AS (
+          SELECT
+            assignee,
+            COUNT(DISTINCT issue_key)::text as task_count,
+            PERCENTILE_CONT(0.5) WITHIN GROUP (
+              ORDER BY CAST(time_spent AS FLOAT) / original_estimate
+            ) as coeff_no_bugs,
+            PERCENTILE_CONT(0.5) WITHIN GROUP (
+              ORDER BY CAST(time_spent + bug_time AS FLOAT) / original_estimate
+            ) as coeff_with_bugs,
+            AVG(CAST(bug_time AS FLOAT) / NULLIF(time_spent, 0)) as bug_ratio,
+            'all types (fallback)' as context_label
+          FROM base
+          GROUP BY assignee
+          HAVING COUNT(DISTINCT issue_key) >= 3
+        )
+        SELECT * FROM context_coeffs
+        UNION ALL
+        SELECT * FROM global_coeffs
+        WHERE assignee NOT IN (SELECT assignee FROM context_coeffs)`, [issueType]);
+        const coefficients = coefficientResult.rows;
         await storage.close();
-        // ─── Build report ───
         const sections = [];
         sections.push(`# Estimate Prediction`);
-        sections.push(`Query: "${description}"${assignee ? ` | Developer: ${assignee}` : ''}`);
-        sections.push(`Based on ${String(similar.length)} similar completed tasks\n`);
-        // Index data by issue_key
+        const metaParts = [assignee ? `Developer: ${assignee}` : '', issueType ? `Type: ${issueType}` : '', comps ? `Components: ${comps.join(', ')}` : ''].filter(Boolean);
+        sections.push(`Query: "${description}"${metaParts.length > 0 ? ` | ${metaParts.join(' | ')}` : ''}`);
+        sections.push(`Based on ${String(similar.length)} similar completed tasks`);
+        sections.push(`Scoring: text 30% + type ${issueType ? '25%' : '0%'} + component ${comps ? '35%' : '0%'} + recency 10%\n`);
         const worklogMap = new Map();
         for (const w of worklogs) {
             const arr = worklogMap.get(w.issue_key) ?? [];
@@ -1329,11 +1437,9 @@ server.registerTool('estimate', {
             arr.push(b);
             bugMap.set(b.related_to, arr);
         }
-        // ─── Per-issue breakdown ───
         sections.push('## Similar Tasks\n');
         let totalCycleHours = 0;
         let totalCodingHours = 0;
-        let totalWorklogHours = 0;
         let totalBugs = 0;
         let validCycleCount = 0;
         let validCodingCount = 0;
@@ -1350,7 +1456,6 @@ server.registerTool('estimate', {
             const issueCommits = commitMap.get(issue.issue_key);
             const issueBugs = bugMap.get(issue.issue_key) ?? [];
             const issueEstimate = estimateMap.get(issue.issue_key);
-            // Real coding time from commits
             const codingHours = (issueCommits?.first_commit && issueCommits.last_commit)
                 ? (new Date(issueCommits.last_commit).getTime() - new Date(issueCommits.first_commit).getTime()) / 3600000
                 : null;
@@ -1358,10 +1463,7 @@ server.registerTool('estimate', {
                 totalCodingHours += codingHours;
                 validCodingCount++;
             }
-            const worklogHours = issueWorklogs.reduce((sum, w) => sum + Number(w.total_seconds), 0) / 3600;
-            totalWorklogHours += worklogHours;
             totalBugs += issueBugs.length;
-            // Track developer stats — priority: changelog assignee → worklogs → commits → current assignee
             const realDev = realDevMap.get(issue.issue_key);
             const devName = realDev ?? (issueWorklogs.length > 0 ? issueWorklogs[0]?.author : null) ?? issueCommits?.authors ?? issue.assignee ?? 'unknown';
             if (devName) {
@@ -1373,14 +1475,29 @@ server.registerTool('estimate', {
                 stats.commits += Number(issueCommits?.commits ?? 0);
                 developerStats.set(devName, stats);
             }
-            const originalEst = issueEstimate?.original_estimate ? `${String(Math.round(Number(issueEstimate.original_estimate) / 3600))}h est` : '';
-            const actualTime = issueEstimate?.time_spent ? `${String(Math.round(Number(issueEstimate.time_spent) / 3600))}h actual` : '';
+            const estH = issueEstimate?.original_estimate ? issueEstimate.original_estimate / 3600 : null;
+            const actualH = issueEstimate?.time_spent ? issueEstimate.time_spent / 3600 : null;
+            const bugTimeH = issueBugs
+                .filter((b) => b.bug_time_spent !== null)
+                .reduce((sum, b) => sum + (b.bug_time_spent ?? 0), 0) / 3600;
+            const realCostH = (actualH ?? 0) + bugTimeH;
+            const taskCoeff = estH && estH > 0 && actualH ? actualH / estH : null;
+            const taskCoeffBugs = estH && estH > 0 ? realCostH / estH : null;
             const cycleStr = cycleHours !== null ? `${cycleHours.toFixed(1)}h cycle` : 'open';
             const codingStr = codingHours !== null && codingHours > 0 ? ` | ${codingHours.toFixed(1)}h coding` : '';
+            const scoreStr = `score: ${issue.composite_score.toFixed(2)}`;
+            const matchParts = [issue.type_match > 0 ? 'type' : '', issue.component_overlap > 0 ? `comp:${(issue.component_overlap * 100).toFixed(0)}%` : ''].filter(Boolean);
+            const matchStr = matchParts.length > 0 ? ` [${matchParts.join(', ')}]` : '';
             sections.push(`### ${issue.issue_key}: ${issue.summary}`);
-            sections.push(`Type: ${issue.issue_type} | Dev: ${devName} | ${cycleStr}${codingStr}`);
-            if (originalEst || actualTime) {
-                sections.push(`Estimate: ${[originalEst, actualTime].filter(Boolean).join(' → ')}`);
+            sections.push(`Type: ${issue.issue_type} | Dev: ${devName} | ${cycleStr}${codingStr} | ${scoreStr}${matchStr}`);
+            if (estH !== null || actualH !== null) {
+                const estStr = estH !== null ? `${Math.round(estH)}h est` : '';
+                const actStr = actualH !== null ? `${Math.round(actualH)}h actual` : '';
+                const coeffStr = taskCoeff !== null ? ` (×${taskCoeff.toFixed(2)})` : '';
+                sections.push(`Estimate: ${[estStr, actStr].filter(Boolean).join(' → ')}${coeffStr}`);
+            }
+            if (bugTimeH > 0) {
+                sections.push(`Bug aftermath: ${bugTimeH.toFixed(1)}h → real cost: ${realCostH.toFixed(1)}h (×${taskCoeffBugs?.toFixed(2) ?? '?'})`);
             }
             if (issueCommits) {
                 sections.push(`Code: ${issueCommits.commits} commits, +${issueCommits.total_additions}/-${issueCommits.total_deletions} lines (${issueCommits.authors})`);
@@ -1390,28 +1507,44 @@ server.registerTool('estimate', {
                 sections.push(`Worklogs:\n${wlLines.join('\n')}`);
             }
             if (issueBugs.length > 0) {
-                const bugLines = issueBugs.map((b) => `  ${b.bug_key} [${b.issue_type}] ${b.summary}`);
+                const bugLines = issueBugs.map((b) => {
+                    const bTimeStr = b.bug_time_spent ? ` [${(b.bug_time_spent / 3600).toFixed(1)}h]` : '';
+                    return `  ${b.bug_key} [${b.issue_type}]${bTimeStr} ${b.summary}`;
+                });
                 sections.push(`Related issues (${String(issueBugs.length)}):\n${bugLines.join('\n')}`);
             }
             sections.push('');
         }
-        // ─── Aggregate prediction ───
-        sections.push('## Prediction\n');
+        const taskMetrics = [];
+        for (const issue of similar) {
+            const issueWorklogs = worklogMap.get(issue.issue_key) ?? [];
+            const issueCommits = commitMap.get(issue.issue_key);
+            const issueEstimate = estimateMap.get(issue.issue_key);
+            const codingHours = (issueCommits?.first_commit && issueCommits.last_commit)
+                ? (new Date(issueCommits.last_commit).getTime() - new Date(issueCommits.first_commit).getTime()) / 3600000
+                : null;
+            const worklogHours = issueWorklogs.reduce((sum, w) => sum + Number(w.total_seconds), 0) / 3600;
+            const actualH = issueEstimate?.time_spent ? issueEstimate.time_spent / 3600 : null;
+            const cycleH = issue.resolved
+                ? (new Date(issue.resolved).getTime() - new Date(issue.created).getTime()) / 3600000
+                : null;
+            const hours = actualH ?? (codingHours && codingHours > 0 ? codingHours : null) ?? (worklogHours > 0 ? worklogHours : null) ?? cycleH;
+            if (hours !== null && hours > 0) {
+                taskMetrics.push({ issueKey: issue.issue_key, hours, weight: issue.temporal_weight });
+            }
+        }
+        const base = calculateBaseHours(taskMetrics);
+        sections.push('## Similar Tasks Summary\n');
         const avgCycle = validCycleCount > 0 ? totalCycleHours / validCycleCount : 0;
         const avgCoding = validCodingCount > 0 ? totalCodingHours / validCodingCount : 0;
         const avgBugs = similar.length > 0 ? totalBugs / similar.length : 0;
-        // Best effort time: coding > worklogs > cycle
-        const bestTimeSource = avgCoding > 0 ? { label: 'coding time (commits)', hours: avgCoding }
-            : totalWorklogHours > 0 ? { label: 'logged time (worklogs)', hours: totalWorklogHours / similar.length }
-                : { label: 'cycle time (created→resolved)', hours: avgCycle };
-        sections.push(`Average ${bestTimeSource.label}: ${bestTimeSource.hours.toFixed(1)}h (${(bestTimeSource.hours / 8).toFixed(1)} working days)`);
+        sections.push(`Base hours: ${base.hours.toFixed(1)}h (${base.method})`);
         if (avgCoding > 0 && avgCycle > 0) {
-            sections.push(`Cycle time (includes waiting/review): ${avgCycle.toFixed(1)}h — coding was ${((avgCoding / avgCycle) * 100).toFixed(0)}% of it`);
+            sections.push(`Cycle time: ${avgCycle.toFixed(1)}h — coding was ${((avgCoding / avgCycle) * 100).toFixed(0)}% of it`);
         }
         sections.push(`Bug rate: ${avgBugs.toFixed(1)} bugs per task`);
-        // ─── Developer breakdown ───
         if (developerStats.size > 0) {
-            sections.push('\n## Developer Profiles\n');
+            sections.push('\n## Developer Profiles (similar tasks)\n');
             for (const [dev, stats] of developerStats) {
                 if (assignee && !dev.toLowerCase().includes(assignee.toLowerCase())) {
                     continue;
@@ -1423,13 +1556,51 @@ server.registerTool('estimate', {
                 sections.push(`**${dev}**: ${String(stats.tasks)} similar tasks, avg ${devBestHours.toFixed(1)}h (${(devBestHours / 8).toFixed(1)}d), ${bugRate.toFixed(1)} bugs/task, ${String(stats.commits)} commits`);
             }
         }
-        // ─── Final estimate ───
-        sections.push('\n## Recommended Estimate\n');
-        const bufferMultiplier = 1.3;
-        const predictedHours = bestTimeSource.hours * bufferMultiplier;
-        sections.push(`Base: ${bestTimeSource.hours.toFixed(0)}h + 30% buffer = **${predictedHours.toFixed(0)}h (${(predictedHours / 8).toFixed(1)} working days)**`);
+        if (familiarity.factor < 1.0) {
+            sections.push(`\n## Developer Familiarity\n`);
+            sections.push(`${assignee}: ${familiarity.explanation}`);
+        }
+        if (coefficients.length > 0) {
+            sections.push('\n## Developer Coefficients\n');
+            const relevantCoeffs = assignee
+                ? coefficients.filter((c) => c.assignee.toLowerCase().includes(assignee.toLowerCase()))
+                : coefficients;
+            for (const c of relevantCoeffs) {
+                const noBugs = Number(c.coeff_no_bugs).toFixed(2);
+                const withBugs = Number(c.coeff_with_bugs).toFixed(2);
+                const ratio = (Number(c.bug_ratio) * 100).toFixed(0);
+                sections.push(`**${c.assignee}**: ×${noBugs} without bugs, ×${withBugs} with bugs (${c.task_count} tasks, bug overhead ${ratio}%, ${c.context_label}, median, outliers excluded)`);
+            }
+        }
+        sections.push('\n## Prediction\n');
+        const contextCoeffs = coefficients.filter((c) => c.context_label !== 'all types (fallback)');
+        const globalCoeffs = coefficients.filter((c) => c.context_label === 'all types (fallback)');
+        const baseHours = base.hours;
+        const buildDevPrediction = (dev, label) => {
+            const noBugs = Number(dev.coeff_no_bugs);
+            const withBugs = Number(dev.coeff_with_bugs);
+            const predNoBugs = baseHours * noBugs;
+            const predWithBugs = baseHours * withBugs;
+            const overhead = noBugs > 0 ? ((withBugs - noBugs) / noBugs * 100).toFixed(0) : '0';
+            const lines = [];
+            lines.push(`### ${dev.assignee} ${label}`);
+            lines.push(`Without bugs: ${baseHours.toFixed(1)}h ×${noBugs.toFixed(2)} = **${predNoBugs.toFixed(1)}h** (${(predNoBugs / 8).toFixed(1)}d)`);
+            lines.push(`With bugs: ${baseHours.toFixed(1)}h ×${withBugs.toFixed(2)} = **${predWithBugs.toFixed(1)}h** (${(predWithBugs / 8).toFixed(1)}d) — bug overhead +${overhead}%`);
+            lines.push(`Based on ${dev.task_count} completed tasks, ${dev.context_label}\n`);
+            return lines;
+        };
+        const devCtx = contextCoeffs.find((c) => c.assignee.toLowerCase().includes(assignee.toLowerCase()));
+        const devGlob = globalCoeffs.find((c) => c.assignee.toLowerCase().includes(assignee.toLowerCase()));
+        const dev = devCtx ?? devGlob;
+        if (dev) {
+            sections.push(...buildDevPrediction(dev, ''));
+        }
+        else {
+            sections.push(`No coefficient data for "${assignee}". Need ≥3 completed tasks with estimates.`);
+            sections.push(`${baseHours.toFixed(1)}h based on similar tasks (no personal coefficient)\n`);
+        }
         if (avgBugs > 0.5) {
-            sections.push(`⚠ High bug rate (${avgBugs.toFixed(1)}/task) — consider additional buffer`);
+            sections.push(`High bug rate (${avgBugs.toFixed(1)}/task) among similar tasks`);
         }
         return {
             content: [{ type: 'text', text: sections.join('\n') }],
@@ -1443,14 +1614,11 @@ server.registerTool('estimate', {
         };
     }
 });
-// ─── Start ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 export async function startMcpServer() {
     const transport = new StdioServerTransport();
     await server.connect(transport);
-    // IMPORTANT: use console.error, not console.log — stdout is for JSON-RPC
     console.error('Argustack MCP server running on stdio');
 }
-// Allow direct execution: node dist/mcp/server.js
 const isDirectRun = typeof process !== 'undefined' &&
     process.argv[1] &&
     (process.argv[1].endsWith('/mcp/server.js') || process.argv[1].endsWith('/mcp/server.ts'));