alphacouncil-agent 1.0.1 → 1.0.2

package/mcp/lib/cross-market.mjs

@@ -0,0 +1,180 @@
+/**
+ * How a basket moves against other markets, and how its own sectors are moving apart.
+ *
+ * Every seat that reasons about crowding, reflexivity or position size needs to know what else
+ * a holding is a bet on. Dalio's own authored policy limits size by correlation; Soros needs a
+ * loop that runs between markets; Marks reads dispersion as where the cycle stands. None of
+ * them could ask, because nothing here compared one market with another.
+ *
+ * The inputs are daily closes, from the same keyless endpoint the breadth pass already uses,
+ * so a correlation costs one fetch per reference series and nothing per constituent.
+ *
+ * Two disciplines are enforced rather than assumed:
+ *
+ *   1. **Sessions are aligned by date, not by position.** Korea and the United States do not
+ *      share a holiday calendar, and zipping two arrays by index silently compares a Tuesday
+ *      with a Wednesday — which produces a correlation that is confidently wrong rather than
+ *      obviously broken.
+ *   2. **A short overlap produces nothing.** A correlation over twenty paired sessions is
+ *      noise with a decimal point on it.
+ */
+
+import { LIMITS } from "./constants.mjs";
+import { chartUrl, parseDatedCloses } from "./breadth.mjs";
+import { fetchText } from "./quotes.mjs";
+
+/** Windows the facts are published over. Both are stated on the fact, never implied. */
+export const CORRELATION_WINDOW_DAYS = 60;
+
+/** Below this many paired sessions a correlation is not reported at all. */
+export const MIN_PAIRED_SESSIONS = 40;
+
+/**
+ * Reference markets a US basket is worth being correlated against.
+ *
+ * Korea is here because it is the clearest listed read on the semiconductor and export cycle
+ * outside the United States: KOSPI's index weight is dominated by memory and display, so a
+ * semiconductor basket that has decoupled from it has decoupled from its own end demand.
+ */
+export const REFERENCE_MARKETS = Object.freeze({
+  "^GSPC": { label: "S&P 500", why: "the broad US market a US basket is measured against" },
+  "^KS11": { label: "KOSPI", why: "Korea's main board, weighted toward memory and export manufacturing" },
+  "^KQ11": { label: "KOSDAQ", why: "Korea's growth board, a read on domestic risk appetite rather than exporters" },
+  "^SOX": { label: "PHLX Semiconductor", why: "the semiconductor cycle as a listed series" },
+});
+
+/** The eleven Select Sector SPDRs, which between them partition the S&P 500. */
+export const SECTOR_SPDRS = Object.freeze(["XLK","XLF","XLE","XLV","XLI","XLY","XLP","XLU","XLB","XLRE","XLC"]);
+
+const finite = (value) => typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value);
+
+/** Pearson correlation of two equal-length return series. */
+export function correlation(left, right) {
+  if (!Array.isArray(left) || left.length !== right?.length || left.length < 2) return null;
+  const n = left.length;
+  const meanLeft = left.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / n;
+  const meanRight = right.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / n;
+  let covariance = 0;
+  let varianceLeft = 0;
+  let varianceRight = 0;
+  for (let index = 0; index < n; index += 1) {
+    const dl = left[index] - meanLeft;
+    const dr = right[index] - meanRight;
+    covariance += dl * dr;
+    varianceLeft += dl * dl;
+    varianceRight += dr * dr;
+  }
+  if (varianceLeft <= 0 || varianceRight <= 0) return null;
+  return covariance / Math.sqrt(varianceLeft * varianceRight);
+}
+
+/**
+ * Daily returns for the sessions two series actually share.
+ *
+ * Aligning on the date is the whole point. Two markets with different holidays produce arrays
+ * of different lengths whose positions do not correspond, and comparing them by position is
+ * the standard way a cross-market correlation ends up measuring nothing.
+ */
+export function alignedReturns(left, right, windowDays = CORRELATION_WINDOW_DAYS) {
+  const rightByDate = new Map((right || []).map((row) => [row.date, row.close]));
+  const paired = [];
+  for (const row of left || []) {
+    const other = rightByDate.get(row.date);
+    if (finite(row.close) && finite(other)) paired.push({ date: row.date, left: row.close, right: other });
+  }
+  const window = paired.slice(-(windowDays + 1));
+  if (window.length < MIN_PAIRED_SESSIONS) return null;
+  const returns = { left: [], right: [], sessions: window.length - 1, from: window[0].date, to: window.at(-1).date };
+  for (let index = 1; index < window.length; index += 1) {
+    returns.left.push(window[index].left / window[index - 1].left - 1);
+    returns.right.push(window[index].right / window[index - 1].right - 1);
+  }
+  return returns;
+}
+
+async function datedCloses(symbol, signal) {
+  try {
+    return parseDatedCloses(JSON.parse(await fetchText(chartUrl(symbol), LIMITS.QUOTE_FETCH_MS, signal)));
+  } catch {
+    return null;
+  }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Correlation and relative strength of one symbol against each reference market.
+ *
+ * Relative strength travels with the correlation on purpose. A correlation of 0.9 says two
+ * markets move together and says nothing about which one is winning; a reader given only the
+ * first will supply the second from imagination.
+ */
+export async function fetchCrossMarket(symbol, { signal, references = REFERENCE_MARKETS } = {}) {
+  const facts = [];
+  const unavailable = [];
+  const subject = await datedCloses(symbol, signal);
+  if (!subject?.length) {
+    return { facts, unavailable: [`cross-market: no daily closes for ${symbol}`] };
+  }
+  for (const [reference, meta] of Object.entries(references)) {
+    if (String(reference).toUpperCase() === String(symbol).toUpperCase()) continue;
+    const other = await datedCloses(reference, signal);
+    if (!other?.length) { unavailable.push(`cross-market ${reference}: no daily closes`); continue; }
+    const returns = alignedReturns(subject, other);
+    if (!returns) {
+      unavailable.push(
+        `cross-market ${reference}: fewer than ${MIN_PAIRED_SESSIONS} sessions shared with ${symbol};`
+        + " the two calendars do not overlap enough to compare",
+      );
+      continue;
+    }
+    const rho = correlation(returns.left, returns.right);
+    if (!finite(rho)) { unavailable.push(`cross-market ${reference}: a series did not move over the window`); continue; }
+    const total = (series) => series.reduce((compound, value) => compound * (1 + value), 1) - 1;
+    facts.push({
+      reference,
+      label: meta.label,
+      why: meta.why,
+      correlation: Number(rho.toFixed(4)),
+      relative_return: Number((total(returns.left) - total(returns.right)).toFixed(6)),
+      sessions: returns.sessions,
+      from: returns.from,
+      to: returns.to,
+    });
+  }
+  return { facts, unavailable };
+}
+
+/**
+ * How far apart a set of sector baskets has travelled over the window.
+ *
+ * One number, and it is a real one: the standard deviation of sector total returns. A market
+ * whose sectors all return the same thing is being repriced by one factor; a market whose
+ * sectors have separated is being repriced by many, and those are different regimes to own.
+ */
+export async function fetchSectorDispersion(symbols, { signal } = {}) {
+  const returns = [];
+  const unavailable = [];
+  let window = null;
+  for (const symbol of symbols || []) {
+    const closes = await datedCloses(symbol, signal);
+    const tail = (closes || []).slice(-(CORRELATION_WINDOW_DAYS + 1));
+    if (tail.length < MIN_PAIRED_SESSIONS) { unavailable.push(`sector dispersion ${symbol}: too few sessions`); continue; }
+    returns.push({ symbol, value: tail.at(-1).close / tail[0].close - 1 });
+    window = { from: tail[0].date, to: tail.at(-1).date, sessions: tail.length - 1 };
+  }
+  if (returns.length < 3) {
+    return { available: false, unavailable: [...unavailable, "sector dispersion: fewer than three sectors priced"] };
+  }
+  const mean = returns.reduce((sum, row) => sum + row.value, 0) / returns.length;
+  const variance = returns.reduce((sum, row) => sum + (row.value - mean) ** 2, 0) / returns.length;
+  const sorted = [...returns].sort((left, right) => right.value - left.value);
+  return {
+    available: true,
+    dispersion: Number(Math.sqrt(variance).toFixed(6)),
+    mean_return: Number(mean.toFixed(6)),
+    leader: sorted[0],
+    laggard: sorted.at(-1),
+    measured: returns.length,
+    ...window,
+    unavailable,
+  };
+}

package/mcp/lib/grounding.mjs

@@ -5,6 +5,8 @@ import { fetchMacroSeries } from "./fred.mjs";
 import { fetchFundamentals } from "./fundamentals.mjs";
 import { fetchInsiderOwnership } from "./insider-ownership.mjs";
 import { INDEX_PROXIES, normalizeIndexSymbol } from "./index-aggregate.mjs";
+import { SECTOR_SPDRS, fetchCrossMarket, fetchSectorDispersion } from "./cross-market.mjs";
+import { fetchBasketNews } from "./basket-news.mjs";
 import { gatherInstrumentFacts, LOOK_THROUGH_FACT_IDS } from "./instrument-facts.mjs";
 import { fetchOptionsChain } from "./options.mjs";
 import { screenTicker } from "./screen.mjs";
@@ -200,6 +202,22 @@ export async function gatherGrounding({
     }));
   }
 
+  // What else is this a bet on. Only for baskets: a single company's correlation to KOSPI is a
+  // fact about its sector, not about the company, and the seats that reason about crowding and
+  // position size are asking about the basket.
+  if (symbol && isFundOrIndex(out.instrument)) {
+    jobs.push(safely("cross-market", () => fetchCrossMarket(symbol, { signal })).then((r) => {
+      if (!r.ok) { out.unavailable.push(r.error); return; }
+      if (r.value.facts.length) out.cross_market = r.value.facts;
+      out.unavailable.push(...r.value.unavailable);
+    }));
+    jobs.push(safely("sector dispersion", () => fetchSectorDispersion(SECTOR_SPDRS, { signal })).then((r) => {
+      if (!r.ok) { out.unavailable.push(r.error); return; }
+      if (r.value.available) out.sector_dispersion = r.value;
+      out.unavailable.push(...(r.value.unavailable || []));
+    }));
+  }
+
   if (cik) {
     if (snapshotPolicy.allowed) {
       // Resolve the registrant before deciding whether Company Facts applies. Scheduling
@@ -306,7 +324,7 @@ export async function gatherGrounding({
   // instead: published holdings, index-level valuation and the look-through aggregates that
   // let an operating-company method run against a basket at all.
   if (symbol && isFundOrIndex(out.instrument) && snapshotPolicy.allowed) {
-    jobs.push(safely("instrument aggregate", () => gatherInstrumentFacts({
+    const instrumentJob = safely("instrument aggregate", () => gatherInstrumentFacts({
       symbol, instrument: out.instrument, asOf, signal,
       // The operating-company facts a basket can supply at all: everything the method seats
       // ask of a company, aggregated by weight across the constituents that publish it.
@@ -315,7 +333,21 @@ export async function gatherGrounding({
       if (!r.ok) { out.unavailable.push(r.error); return; }
       out.instrument_aggregate = r.value;
       out.unavailable.push(...(r.value.unavailable || []));
-    }));
+    });
+    jobs.push(instrumentJob);
+    // A basket has no press office and files nothing, so its news comes from what it holds.
+    // Chained after the instrument pass rather than run beside it, because the holdings are
+    // what name the industry -- fetching them twice to avoid the wait would cost more than it
+    // saves.
+    jobs.push((async () => {
+      await instrumentJob;
+      const holdings = out.instrument_aggregate?.holdings;
+      if (!holdings?.length) return;
+      const news = await safely("basket news", () => fetchBasketNews(holdings, { asOf, signal }));
+      if (!news.ok) { out.unavailable.push(news.error); return; }
+      if (news.value.available) out.basket_news = news.value;
+      out.unavailable.push(...(news.value.unavailable || []));
+    })());
   }
 
   if (symbol && isFundOrIndex(out.instrument)) {

package/mcp/lib/industry.mjs

@@ -119,24 +119,45 @@ export const SIC_GROUPS = [
   { id: "mining_energy", range: [1000, 1499], title: { zh: "采矿与能源", en: "Mining and energy" } },
   { id: "construction", range: [1500, 1799], title: { zh: "建筑", en: "Construction" } },
   { id: "food_beverage", range: [2000, 2199], title: { zh: "食品饮料", en: "Food and beverage" } },
+  { id: "textiles_apparel", range: [2200, 2399], title: { zh: "纺织服装", en: "Textiles and apparel" } },
+  { id: "paper_packaging", range: [2400, 2679], title: { zh: "造纸与包装", en: "Paper and packaging" } },
+  { id: "publishing", range: [2700, 2799], title: { zh: "出版印刷", en: "Publishing and printing" } },
   { id: "chemicals", range: [2800, 2899], title: { zh: "化工", en: "Chemicals" } },
   { id: "pharma_biotech", range: [2833, 2836], title: { zh: "医药与生物科技", en: "Pharma and biotech" } },
   { id: "energy_refining", range: [2900, 2999], title: { zh: "炼化", en: "Refining" } },
+  { id: "rubber_plastics", range: [3000, 3199], title: { zh: "橡胶塑料", en: "Rubber and plastics" } },
+  { id: "building_materials", range: [3200, 3299], title: { zh: "建材", en: "Building materials" } },
   { id: "metals", range: [3300, 3399], title: { zh: "金属", en: "Metals" } },
+  { id: "fabricated_metal", range: [3400, 3499], title: { zh: "金属制品", en: "Fabricated metal products" } },
   { id: "machinery", range: [3500, 3569], title: { zh: "机械", en: "Machinery" } },
   { id: "computers_hardware", range: [3570, 3579], title: { zh: "计算机硬件", en: "Computers and hardware" } },
+  { id: "industrial_equipment", range: [3580, 3599], title: { zh: "工业设备", en: "Industrial equipment" } },
   { id: "electronics", range: [3600, 3673], title: { zh: "电子", en: "Electronics" } },
   { id: "semiconductors", range: [3674, 3674], title: { zh: "半导体", en: "Semiconductors" } },
-  { id: "instruments_medical", range: [3820, 3873], title: { zh: "仪器与医疗器械", en: "Instruments and medical devices" } },
+  { id: "electrical_equipment", range: [3675, 3699], title: { zh: "电气设备", en: "Electrical equipment" } },
+  { id: "autos", range: [3700, 3719], title: { zh: "汽车", en: "Automobiles" } },
+  { id: "aerospace_defense", range: [3720, 3799], title: { zh: "航空航天与国防", en: "Aerospace and defense" } },
+  { id: "instruments_medical", range: [3800, 3879], title: { zh: "仪器与医疗器械", en: "Instruments and medical devices" } },
+  { id: "manufacturing_other", range: [3880, 3999], title: { zh: "其他制造", en: "Other manufacturing" } },
   { id: "transportation", range: [4000, 4799], title: { zh: "运输", en: "Transportation" } },
   { id: "telecom", range: [4800, 4899], title: { zh: "电信", en: "Telecom" } },
   { id: "utilities", range: [4900, 4999], title: { zh: "公用事业", en: "Utilities" } },
+  { id: "wholesale", range: [5000, 5199], title: { zh: "批发分销", en: "Wholesale and distribution" } },
   { id: "retail", range: [5200, 5999], title: { zh: "零售", en: "Retail" } },
-  { id: "banks", range: [6020, 6199], title: { zh: "银行", en: "Banks" } },
+  { id: "banks", range: [6000, 6199], title: { zh: "银行", en: "Banks" } },
+  { id: "brokers_asset_managers", range: [6200, 6299], title: { zh: "券商与资产管理", en: "Brokers and asset managers" } },
   { id: "insurance", range: [6300, 6411], title: { zh: "保险", en: "Insurance" } },
+  { id: "financial_services", range: [6412, 6499], title: { zh: "金融服务", en: "Financial services" } },
   { id: "real_estate", range: [6500, 6799], title: { zh: "房地产", en: "Real estate" } },
+  { id: "hospitality_leisure", range: [7000, 7099], title: { zh: "酒店与休闲", en: "Hospitality and leisure" } },
+  { id: "business_services", range: [7100, 7369], title: { zh: "商业服务", en: "Business services" } },
   { id: "software", range: [7370, 7379], title: { zh: "软件与IT服务", en: "Software and IT services" } },
+  { id: "consumer_services", range: [7380, 7799], title: { zh: "消费服务", en: "Consumer services" } },
+  { id: "media_entertainment", range: [7800, 7999], title: { zh: "影视与娱乐", en: "Media and entertainment" } },
   { id: "healthcare_services", range: [8000, 8099], title: { zh: "医疗服务", en: "Healthcare services" } },
+  { id: "professional_services", range: [8100, 8730], title: { zh: "专业服务", en: "Professional services" } },
+  { id: "research_services", range: [8731, 8734], title: { zh: "研究服务", en: "Research services" } },
+  { id: "other_services", range: [8735, 8999], title: { zh: "其他服务", en: "Other services" } },
 ];
 
 export function sicGroupFor(sic) {

package/mcp/lib/instrument-facts.mjs

@@ -839,6 +839,9 @@ export async function gatherInstrumentFacts({
     symbol,
     research_model: instrument?.research_model || "market_instrument",
     provenance,
+    // The disclosed positions themselves, so a caller that needs the basket's identity rather
+    // than its aggregates -- news, for one -- does not fetch the holdings file a second time.
+    holdings: holdings?.holdings || null,
     facts,
     // Several facts have more than one route -- the implied ERP and the valuation percentile
     // are computed from the published workbook when the index feed cannot supply them -- and

package/mcp/lib/markdown.mjs

@@ -118,25 +118,33 @@ const MASTER_STATEMENT_COPY = Object.freeze({
     heading: "\u9010\u5e2d\u65b9\u6cd5\u8f93\u51fa", acted: "\u6709\u5224\u65ad\u7684\u5e2d\u4f4d", abstained: "\u8bf4\u8fd9\u4e0d\u5f52\u5b83\u7ba1\u7684\u5e2d\u4f4d",
     stance: "\u7acb\u573a", intent: "\u610f\u5411", origin: "\u9648\u8bcd\u6765\u6e90", statement: "\u672c\u8f6e\u53d1\u8a00\uff08\u4e0d\u662f\u672c\u4eba\u5f15\u8bed\uff09",
     findings: "\u5173\u952e\u53d1\u73b0", disagreements: "\u4e0e\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5206\u6b67", change: "\u6539\u53d8\u5224\u65ad\u6761\u4ef6", sources: "\u6765\u6e90\u6216\u660e\u786e\u7f3a\u53e3",
-    abstainLead: (n) => `\u53e6\u6709 ${n} \u5e2d\u5728\u672c\u8f6e\u4e0d\u7ed9\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u5404\u81ea\u7f3a\u7684\u662f\u65b9\u6cd5\u5fc5\u9700\u7684\u8f93\u5165\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u770b\u7a7a\u7968\uff1a`,
+    abstainLead: (n) => `\u53e6\u6709 ${n} \u5e2d\u672c\u8f6e\u672a\u80fd\u53d6\u5f97\u5176\u65b9\u6cd5\u5fc5\u9700\u7684\u8f93\u5165\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6ca1\u6709\u7ed9\u51fa\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u6570\u636e\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u770b\u7a7a\u7968\uff1a`,
+    declined: "\u770b\u8fc7\u4e4b\u540e\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e0d\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u5e2d\u4f4d",
+    declinedLead: (n) => `\u4ee5\u4e0b ${n} \u5e2d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8dd1\u5b8c\u4e86\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u7f3a\u6570\u636e\uff1a`,
   },
   en: {
     heading: "Method-Seat Outputs", acted: "Seats with a view", abstained: "Seats that say this is not theirs to call",
     stance: "Stance", intent: "Intent", origin: "Statement source", statement: "Recorded statement (not a quote)",
     findings: "Key findings", disagreements: "Disagreements", change: "What would change the view", sources: "Sources or explicit gaps",
-    abstainLead: (n) => `A further ${n} seat(s) issue no direction this round, each missing a method-critical input. These are not bearish votes:`,
+    abstainLead: (n) => `A further ${n} seat(s) issue no direction because a method-critical input did not arrive this round. This is a data gap, not a bearish vote:`,
+    declined: "Seats whose method examined this and declined",
+    declinedLead: (n) => `${n} seat(s) ran their method to completion and it returned "not this one". These are judgments, not missing data:`,
   },
   ja: {
     heading: "\u30e1\u30bd\u30c3\u30c9\u5e2d\u3054\u3068\u306e\u51fa\u529b", acted: "\u5224\u65ad\u3092\u793a\u3057\u305f\u5e2d", abstained: "\u81ea\u5206\u306e\u62c5\u5f53\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3057\u305f\u5e2d",
     stance: "\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30b9", intent: "\u610f\u5411", origin: "\u898b\u89e3\u306e\u751f\u6210\u5143", statement: "\u4eca\u56de\u306e\u767a\u8a00\uff08\u672c\u4eba\u306e\u5f15\u7528\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\uff09",
     findings: "\u4e3b\u306a\u6240\u898b", disagreements: "\u5206\u6790\u62c5\u5f53\u3068\u306e\u76f8\u9055", change: "\u5224\u65ad\u304c\u5909\u308f\u308b\u6761\u4ef6", sources: "\u51fa\u5178\u307e\u305f\u306f\u660e\u793a\u7684\u306a\u6b20\u843d",
-    abstainLead: (n) => `\u4ed6\u306b ${n} \u5e2d\u306f\u4eca\u56de\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u3092\u793a\u3057\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u3044\u305a\u308c\u3082\u30e1\u30bd\u30c3\u30c9\u306b\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u5165\u529b\u3092\u6b20\u3044\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u5f31\u6c17\u7968\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\uff1a`,
+    abstainLead: (n) => `\u4ed6\u306b ${n} \u5e2d\u306f\u3001\u30e1\u30bd\u30c3\u30c9\u306b\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u5165\u529b\u304c\u4eca\u56de\u5c4a\u304b\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u305f\u3081\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u3092\u793a\u3057\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u6b20\u843d\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u5f31\u6c17\u7968\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\uff1a`,
+    declined: "\u691c\u8a0e\u3057\u305f\u4e0a\u3067\u898b\u9001\u3063\u305f\u5e2d",
+    declinedLead: (n) => `\u6b21\u306e ${n} \u5e2d\u306f\u30e1\u30bd\u30c3\u30c9\u3092\u6700\u5f8c\u307e\u3067\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u3001\u300c\u3053\u308c\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u300d\u3068\u7d50\u8ad6\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u4e0d\u8db3\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u5224\u65ad\u3067\u3059\uff1a`,
   },
   ko: {
     heading: "\ubc29\ubc95\ub860 \uc88c\uc11d\ubcc4 \ucd9c\ub825", acted: "\ud310\ub2e8\uc744 \ub0b8 \uc88c\uc11d", abstained: "\uc790\uae30 \uc18c\uad00\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1d\ud78c \uc88c\uc11d",
     stance: "\uc785\uc7a5", intent: "\uc758\ud5a5", origin: "\ubc1c\uc5b8 \ucd9c\ucc98", statement: "\uc774\ubc88 \ubc1c\uc5b8(\ubcf8\uc778 \uc778\uc6a9\uc774 \uc544\ub2d8)",
     findings: "\ud575\uc2ec \ubc1c\uacac", disagreements: "\ubd84\uc11d\uac00\uc640\uc758 \uc774\uacac", change: "\ud310\ub2e8 \ubcc0\uacbd \uc870\uac74", sources: "\ucd9c\ucc98 \ub610\ub294 \uba85\uc2dc\uc801 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uacf5\ubc31",
-    abstainLead: (n) => `\uadf8 \uc678 ${n}\uac1c \uc88c\uc11d\uc740 \uc774\ubc88 \ud68c\ucc28\uc5d0 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uac01\uac01 \ubc29\ubc95\ub860\uc5d0 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \uc785\ub825\uc774 \uc5c6\uc73c\uba70 \uc57d\uc138 \ud22c\ud45c\uac00 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4:`,
+    abstainLead: (n) => `\uadf8 \uc678 ${n}\uac1c \uc88c\uc11d\uc740 \ubc29\ubc95\ub860\uc5d0 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \uc785\ub825\uc774 \uc774\ubc88 \ud68c\ucc28\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ucc29\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uacf5\ubc31\uc774\uba70 \uc57d\uc138 \ud22c\ud45c\uac00 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4:`,
+    declined: "\uac80\ud1a0 \ud6c4 \ucc38\uc5ec\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uae30\ub85c \ud55c \uc88c\uc11d",
+    declinedLead: (n) => `\ub2e4\uc74c ${n}\uac1c \uc88c\uc11d\uc740 \ubc29\ubc95\ub860\uc744 \ub05d\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc218\ud589\ud588\uace0 "\uc774\uac83\uc740 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4"\ub77c\ub294 \uacb0\ub860\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubd80\uc871\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ud310\ub2e8\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4:`,
   },
 });
 
@@ -183,12 +191,25 @@ function renderMasterStatements(run) {
   const sections = [`### ${copy.heading}`, voiceDisclaimer(run.language)];
   if (acted.length) sections.push(`#### ${copy.acted}`, acted.map(seatBlock).join("\n\n"));
   if (abstained.length) {
-    // One paragraph, not one row per seat. The stable IDs stay visible so the gate and the
-    // reader can both account for every selected seat without twenty-five identical lines.
-    const merged = abstained
+    // Two reasons wear the same word and they are not the same event. A seat whose method
+    // examined the subject and declined has ANSWERED -- Graham finding no asset floor, a
+    // volatility seat finding no testable observation -- and reporting that as "missing an
+    // input" tells a reader the system broke when the method spoke. A seat whose required
+    // fact never arrived genuinely is a gap. Rendering them together made every run read as
+    // the second kind, which is the complaint this split exists to answer.
+    // One paragraph each, not one row per seat: the stable IDs stay visible so the gate and
+    // the reader can both account for every selected seat.
+    const merged = (group) => group
       .map((opinion) => `${masterTitle(opinion.master, run.language)} (\`${opinion.master}\`) \u2014 ${opinion.voice_statement}`)
       .join(" ");
-    sections.push(`#### ${copy.abstained}`, `${copy.abstainLead(abstained.length)}\n\n${merged}`);
+    const declined = abstained.filter((opinion) => methodDeclined(opinion));
+    const ungrounded = abstained.filter((opinion) => !methodDeclined(opinion));
+    if (declined.length) {
+      sections.push(`#### ${copy.declined}`, `${copy.declinedLead(declined.length)}\n\n${merged(declined)}`);
+    }
+    if (ungrounded.length) {
+      sections.push(`#### ${copy.abstained}`, `${copy.abstainLead(ungrounded.length)}\n\n${merged(ungrounded)}`);
+    }
   }
   return sections.join("\n\n");
 }
@@ -202,6 +223,18 @@ function renderMasterStatements(run) {
  * weakest thing a council produces and the dissenting seat is the informative one. Stating
  * this next to the opinions is the difference between a bench and a vote count.
  */
+/**
+ * Did the seat's own method reach this, or did the data never arrive?
+ *
+ * A fired veto and a false eligibility condition are both the method running to completion and
+ * returning "not this one". Anything else -- an unmet required fact type, a coverage shortfall,
+ * an executor refusal -- is the run failing to give the method what it asked for.
+ */
+export function methodDeclined(opinion) {
+  const reason = String(opinion?.decision?.reason || opinion?.reason || "");
+  return reason === "veto" || reason === "eligibility";
+}
+
 export function masterCorrelationNote(run) {
   const opinions = run?.master_opinions || [];
   if (!opinions.length) return "";

package/mcp/lib/personas-v3/grounding-adapter.mjs

@@ -571,6 +571,143 @@ function fundamentalFacts(grounding, context) {
  * across the newest ownership document per reporting owner, and the coverage limits of Section
  * 16 are real. Labelling it reported would claim a document that does not exist.
  */
+/**
+ * What else a basket is a bet on, as typed facts.
+ *
+ * Correlation to the broad market decides how much diversification a position actually buys,
+ * which is the input Dalio's authored policy already asks for and could never get. Correlation
+ * to Korea is the semiconductor cycle read from outside the United States. Sector dispersion is
+ * whether one factor or many are repricing the market.
+ */
+/**
+ * News as counts, never as content.
+ *
+ * A headline cannot reach a seat's arithmetic: the same symbol would answer differently
+ * depending on what was published that morning, and a frozen deterministic stance would stop
+ * being reproducible. What IS a fact is how much of the basket generated dated news in a stated
+ * window, and how many constituents filed an 8-K in it. Both are counts with a date, and both
+ * are the kind of thing an event-driven method legitimately asks for.
+ *
+ * The headlines themselves stay in the grounding for the report and for the voice worker that
+ * explains a stance the seat already reached.
+ */
+function basketNewsFacts(grounding, context) {
+  const news = grounding?.basket_news;
+  if (!news?.available) return;
+  const publicAt = timestampAtOrBefore(grounding?.gathered_at || context.asOf, context.cutoff);
+  if (!publicAt) return;
+  const sourceIdValue = sourceId("news", "basket_window", news.window_days, publicAt.slice(0, 10));
+  if (!registerSource(context, {
+    source_id: sourceIdValue,
+    source_kind: "news_aggregate",
+    title: `dated items for the basket's largest holdings over ${news.window_days} days`,
+    url: "https://news.google.com/rss",
+    public_at: publicAt,
+    retrieved_at: grounding.gathered_at || publicAt,
+    locator: { window_days: news.window_days, constituents_read: news.constituents_read, industry: news.industry?.id || null },
+  })) return;
+  const shared = {
+    asOf: context.asOf,
+    publicAt,
+    sources: [sourceIdValue],
+    confidence: 0.6,
+    derivation: "rederived",
+  };
+  addUnique(context.facts, context.diagnostics, baseFact({
+    ...shared,
+    factId: "news.covered_weight",
+    valueKind: "ratio",
+    value: news.coverage_weight,
+    unit: "decimal",
+    ratioDenominator: `weight_of_${news.constituents_read}_largest_holdings`,
+    derivationToolId: `${ADAPTER_ID}:news:covered_weight`,
+    derivationInput: { window_days: news.window_days },
+  }));
+  addUnique(context.facts, context.diagnostics, baseFact({
+    ...shared,
+    factId: "news.filing_event_weight",
+    valueKind: "ratio",
+    value: news.filing_event_weight,
+    unit: "decimal",
+    ratioDenominator: `weight_of_${news.constituents_read}_largest_holdings`,
+    derivationToolId: `${ADAPTER_ID}:news:filing_event_weight`,
+    derivationInput: { window_days: news.window_days, filers: news.filing_event_count },
+  }));
+}
+
+function crossMarketFacts(grounding, context) {
+  const rows = grounding?.cross_market;
+  const stamp = grounding?.gathered_at || context.asOf;
+  const publicAt = timestampAtOrBefore(stamp, context.cutoff);
+  if (Array.isArray(rows) && publicAt) {
+    for (const row of rows) {
+      if (!finite(row?.correlation)) continue;
+      const factId = CROSS_MARKET_FACTS[row.reference];
+      if (!factId) continue;
+      const sourceIdValue = sourceId("market", "cross_correlation", row.reference, row.to);
+      if (!registerSource(context, {
+        source_id: sourceIdValue,
+        source_kind: "market_snapshot",
+        title: `daily closes for ${row.label}`,
+        url: `https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/${encodeURIComponent(row.reference)}?range=1y&interval=1d`,
+        public_at: publicAt,
+        retrieved_at: stamp,
+        locator: { reference: row.reference, from: row.from, to: row.to, sessions: row.sessions },
+      })) continue;
+      addUnique(context.facts, context.diagnostics, baseFact({
+        factId,
+        valueKind: "ratio",
+        value: row.correlation,
+        unit: "decimal",
+        ratioDenominator: `pearson_over_${row.sessions}_paired_sessions`,
+        asOf: context.asOf,
+        publicAt,
+        sources: [sourceIdValue],
+        confidence: 0.8,
+        derivation: "rederived",
+        derivationToolId: `${ADAPTER_ID}:cross_market:${row.reference}`,
+        derivationInput: { reference: row.reference, from: row.from, to: row.to, relative_return: row.relative_return },
+      }));
+    }
+  }
+  const dispersion = grounding?.sector_dispersion;
+  if (dispersion?.available && finite(dispersion.dispersion) && publicAt) {
+    const sourceIdValue = sourceId("market", "sector_dispersion", dispersion.to);
+    if (registerSource(context, {
+      source_id: sourceIdValue,
+      source_kind: "market_snapshot",
+      title: "Select Sector SPDR daily closes",
+      url: "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/XLK?range=1y&interval=1d",
+      public_at: publicAt,
+      retrieved_at: stamp,
+      locator: { sectors: dispersion.measured, from: dispersion.from, to: dispersion.to },
+    })) {
+      addUnique(context.facts, context.diagnostics, baseFact({
+        factId: "market.sector_dispersion",
+        valueKind: "ratio",
+        value: dispersion.dispersion,
+        unit: "decimal",
+        ratioDenominator: `stdev_of_${dispersion.measured}_sector_total_returns`,
+        asOf: context.asOf,
+        publicAt,
+        sources: [sourceIdValue],
+        confidence: 0.8,
+        derivation: "rederived",
+        derivationToolId: `${ADAPTER_ID}:sector_dispersion`,
+        derivationInput: { leader: dispersion.leader?.symbol, laggard: dispersion.laggard?.symbol, from: dispersion.from, to: dispersion.to },
+      }));
+    }
+  }
+}
+
+/** Reference market -> the fact id its correlation is published under. */
+const CROSS_MARKET_FACTS = Object.freeze({
+  "^GSPC": "market.correlation_to_broad_market",
+  "^KS11": "market.correlation_to_kospi",
+  "^KQ11": "market.correlation_to_kosdaq",
+  "^SOX": "market.correlation_to_semiconductors",
+});
+
 function insiderOwnershipFacts(grounding, context) {
   const owned = grounding?.insider_ownership;
   if (!owned || !finite(owned.value)) return;
@@ -669,6 +806,8 @@ export function adaptGroundingToTypedFacts(grounding, { asOf, knowledgeAsOf = as
   fundamentalFacts(grounding, context);
   instrumentAggregateFacts(grounding, context);
   insiderOwnershipFacts(grounding, context);
+  crossMarketFacts(grounding, context);
+  basketNewsFacts(grounding, context);
   for (const family of ["screen", "macro", "market"]) {
     if (grounding?.[family] && !grounding[family].public_at) {
       if (family === "screen" && context.diagnostics.some((item) => String(item.source || "").startsWith("screen."))) continue;

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "alphacouncil-agent",
-  "version": "1.0.1",
+  "version": "1.0.2",
   "description": "Multi-agent company, ETF and market-index research workflow for Codex & Claude Code: sourced evidence, method seats, bull/bear debate and portfolio-manager synthesis.",
   "type": "module",
   "license": "MIT",

package/scripts/lib/persona-v3-solo-formula-pipeline.mjs

@@ -126,6 +126,17 @@ export const CANONICAL_SOLO_TEST_FACT_CONTRACTS = Object.freeze({
   "fund.aum": Object.freeze({ value_kind: "monetary", unit: "currency_units", period: INSTANT_AS_OF }),
   "fund.expense_ratio": Object.freeze({ value_kind: "ratio", unit: "decimal", period: INSTANT_AS_OF }),
   // Creations minus redemptions, priced. A crowding signal, never a valuation one.
+  // What else the holding is a bet on. Correlation decides what a position actually
+  // diversifies; dispersion says whether one factor or many are repricing the market.
+  "market.correlation_to_broad_market": Object.freeze({ value_kind: "ratio", unit: "decimal", period: INSTANT_AS_OF }),
+  "market.correlation_to_kospi": Object.freeze({ value_kind: "ratio", unit: "decimal", period: INSTANT_AS_OF }),
+  "market.correlation_to_kosdaq": Object.freeze({ value_kind: "ratio", unit: "decimal", period: INSTANT_AS_OF }),
+  "market.correlation_to_semiconductors": Object.freeze({ value_kind: "ratio", unit: "decimal", period: INSTANT_AS_OF }),
+  // News as counts. The headlines never enter a computation; how much of the basket is in the
+  // news, and how much of it filed, are dated quantities an event-driven method may read.
+  "news.covered_weight": Object.freeze({ value_kind: "ratio", unit: "decimal", period: INSTANT_AS_OF }),
+  "news.filing_event_weight": Object.freeze({ value_kind: "ratio", unit: "decimal", period: INSTANT_AS_OF }),
+  "market.sector_dispersion": Object.freeze({ value_kind: "ratio", unit: "decimal", period: INSTANT_AS_OF }),
   "fund.net_flow": Object.freeze({ value_kind: "monetary", unit: "currency_units", period: INSTANT_AS_OF }),
   "fund.net_flow_ratio": Object.freeze({ value_kind: "ratio", unit: "decimal", period: INSTANT_AS_OF }),