alphacouncil-agent 1.0.0 → 1.0.2

package/docs/plans/v1.1-basket-native-seats.md

@@ -0,0 +1,267 @@
+# v1.1 — Every seat can price a basket
+
+## The complaint, and what is actually wrong
+
+A SOX run ended with 25 of 27 seats `out_of_scope`. That reads as "the masters don't answer",
+and the reflex is to blame the seats. The seats are not the problem. Three separate things are.
+
+### 1. SOX has no data path at all
+
+`INDEX_PROXIES` covers `^GSPC`, `^NDX` and `^DJI`. `FUND_REGISTRY` covers eleven tickers.
+Neither contains `^SOX`, `SOXX`, `SMH` or `SOXQ`. With no registered holdings source there is no
+look-through, no top-ten weight, no breadth, no aggregate valuation — so even `master_bogle`,
+the seat built specifically to price a basket, had nothing to read and correctly abstained.
+
+The run reported this honestly ("缺少同日SOX聚合估值", "SOXQ 只是6月30日滞后代理"), which is
+why it is diagnosable at all. But an honest report of a gap is not a substitute for the data.
+
+### 2. A failed fetch silently halves the answer
+
+Two QQQ runs minutes apart, same code:
+
+| run | basket facts produced |
+|---|---|
+| A | 13 — top-ten weight, HHI, breadth ×2, AUM, leverage, revenue growth, aggregate P/E ×3, dividend yield, ERP, percentile |
+| B | 6 — the aggregate valuation block only |
+
+One failed holdings fetch removes everything downstream of it. Nothing in the report says the
+run was degraded, so the same symbol answers differently on different days and the difference
+looks like the seats changing their minds. **A degraded run must be labelled as degraded.**
+
+### 3. Company facts do not rise to the basket level
+
+This is the real one, and it is a design gap rather than a defect. On QQQ — where the data IS
+complete — 18 of 27 seats are still blocked, and the blocking facts fall into three classes:
+
+| class | facts | seats blocked |
+|---|---|---|
+| **Absolute currency** | `capital_allocation.share_count`, `financial.free_cash_flow_5y`, `financial.owner_earnings`, `financial.net_current_asset_value`, `valuation.downside_asset_value`, `valuation.downside_floor` | 10, 4, 2, 1, 1, 1 |
+| **Pure ratio, legal but unwired** | `accounting.cash_conversion`, `financial.gross_margin_5y`, `financial.net_margin_5y`, `financial.interest_coverage`, `financial.return_on_equity_10y`, `financial.incremental_return_on_capital` | 4, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1 |
+| **Index-level market data** | `options.implied_volatility`, `options.skew_25d`, `execution.bid_ask` | 5 |
+
+`capital_allocation.share_count` alone blocks ten seats — and no seat wants the share count.
+They want it as a **denominator**: owner earnings over market capitalisation, free cash flow
+over market capitalisation, net current assets over price. Summing share counts across a basket
+is meaningless, which is exactly why `LOOK_THROUGH_BLOCKED` refuses it. But converting each
+constituent's absolute figure to a **yield first**, then weighting the yields, is arithmetically
+sound and is what those methods were reaching for anyway. The existing code comment says so:
+
+> "…so they become yields first. That is real and worth doing; it is simply not this pass."
+
+This is that pass.
+
+## What this is not
+
+It is not "make the masters say something about indices". A seat that produces a number because
+the pipeline handed it one, without the number meaning what the method means, is worse than an
+abstention — it is an abstention wearing a verdict. Two rules govern every change below:
+
+1. **A basket reading must be the same question the method asks of a company.** Buffett asks
+   what the business earns for its owners against what the market charges. Asked of a basket
+   that is a weighted owner-earnings yield. Asked of a basket it is *not* "the ETF's owner
+   earnings", and no amount of wanting an answer makes it one.
+2. **A threshold authored for a company is not automatically valid for a basket.** Graham's
+   net-current-asset test on any broad index will fail every time; a seat that always says the
+   same thing regardless of input has no information in it. Where a company threshold is
+   degenerate on a basket, the seat gets an explicitly authored basket band — or it keeps
+   declining, and says why.
+
+## Plan
+
+### Phase A — coverage and honesty (immediate, fixes the reported run)
+
+**A1. Register the missing baskets.** `^SOX`, `^RUT`, `^IXIC` in `INDEX_PROXIES`; `SOXX`, `SMH`,
+`SOXQ`, `IWM`, `VTI`, `XLK`, `XLF`, `XLE` and the rest of the sector SPDRs in `FUND_REGISTRY`.
+Each needs a real issuer product id or slug, verified against a live fetch, not guessed.
+
+**A2. Fail loudly on an unregistered basket.** Today an unknown index quietly produces nothing.
+It should name itself as unregistered and say which issuer file would fix it, so the next SOX is
+a one-line registry addition rather than a diagnosis.
+
+**A3. Label a degraded run.** The instrument block records which sources answered and which did
+not, and the report states it. A run that lost its holdings feed must not present as a run that
+had one. This is the difference between "the seats abstained" and "the data did not arrive".
+
+### Phase B — wire the ratio aggregates that are already legal (unlocks ~8 seats)
+
+`LOOK_THROUGH_FACT_RULES` maps two facts today. Every pure ratio in the table above aggregates
+as a weight-weighted mean under the same coverage floor already enforced (refuse below 50%).
+Add: cash conversion, gross margin, net margin, interest coverage, ten-year ROE, incremental
+return on capital.
+
+Unblocks munger, fisher, li_lu, forensic_short, taleb, soros, jhunjhunwala, bogle.
+
+**Done and measured.** Two things had to be fixed beyond the mapping itself:
+
+- The margins, cash conversion, ten-year ROE and interest coverage come from the **mechanical
+  screen**, not from the derived fundamentals — and the look-through only ran the latter, so
+  those aggregates could never have had inputs. Both readers now run on one Company Facts
+  document per constituent, at no extra network cost.
+- An aggregate arrived as a bare `decimal` with the outer envelope of its constituents'
+  reporting periods. Interest coverage and cash conversion are `multiple`s, and the union of
+  forty five-year spans is five years plus a year of calendar edges — so facts were present and
+  rejected by the contract, which reads exactly like being absent. An aggregate now carries the
+  same unit as its single-company counterpart, over the **median** constituent span.
+
+Result on QQQ: 13 basket facts → 18; blocked seats 18 → 11. The residue is almost entirely the
+absolute-currency class, which is what Phase C exists for — the control group the sequencing
+note asked for.
+
+### Phase C — per-constituent yields (unlocks ~10 seats, the big one)
+
+New aggregation kind in `funds.mjs`: `yield_of(absolute_fact, market_capitalisation)`. For each
+resolved constituent, divide the absolute figure by that constituent's own market cap, then
+weight the resulting yields. Produces:
+
+| new basket fact | from | unblocks |
+|---|---|---|
+| `valuation.owner_earnings_yield` | owner earnings ÷ mcap | buffett, ackman |
+| `valuation.free_cash_flow_yield` | 5y FCF ÷ mcap | graham, aschenbrenner, cathie_wood, lynch |
+| `valuation.ncav_to_price` | NCAV ÷ mcap | burry |
+| `valuation.downside_floor_ratio` | downside floor ÷ mcap | klarman, pabrai |
+
+Each seat's tool then reads the basket yield where it read a company yield. The arithmetic is
+identical; only the input changes. Market capitalisation per constituent is already available —
+the fundamentals path produces share count, and the quote path produces price.
+
+**Done and measured — and implemented differently from the sketch above, for the better.**
+Emitting new yield fact ids would have required re-authoring ten seats to read them. It is
+also not what a fund owns. A fund holding 1% of a company has a claim on 1% of its owner
+earnings, and summing that across the basket is a dollar figure ABOUT THE FUND:
+
+    fund's claim = AUM x SUM over i of ( weight_i / market_cap_i ) x figure_i
+
+This is ordinary look-through accounting, not the category error `LOOK_THROUGH_BLOCKED`
+refuses — that one sums constituents as though the fund owned each outright. Because a fund's
+market capitalisation IS its AUM, a seat dividing this claim by market capitalisation gets the
+weighted look-through yield **with no change to its method at all**.
+
+Per-constituent market capitalisation costs nothing extra: the share count is already fetched
+by the fundamentals pass and the price by the breadth pass, which fetched a year of closes for
+every constituent and threw the last one away.
+
+Two contract corrections fell out of it:
+
+- A share count is a point-in-time quantity, not a span. It was declared over a fiscal year
+  because that is how the filing reports it, which meant a fund's count — a genuine instant —
+  could satisfy no contract. It exists to denominate a market capitalisation, where how many
+  shares there are matters and which window they were averaged over does not; the averaging
+  basis stays stated in `assumptions`.
+- A claim inherits the reporting window of the figure it is a claim on.
+
+**The honest limit, recorded on every such fact:** a weighted mean of yields is not the yield of
+the aggregate, and the difference grows with dispersion. It is the right number for "what does
+the average dollar in this basket earn", which is the question these methods ask, and it is the
+wrong number for "what would this basket earn if it were one company". The fact carries which
+one it is.
+
+### Phase D — the basket's own option surface (unlocks ~4 seats)
+
+Volatility seats read `options.implied_volatility`, `options.skew_25d` and `execution.bid_ask`,
+none of which the basket path supplies today. Index options (SPX, NDX, SOX) and liquid ETF
+options both exist on the same chain endpoint the single-stock path already uses; the work is
+routing a basket symbol to its own chain rather than skipping options for non-companies.
+
+Unblocks simons, thorp, natenberg, sinclair; strengthens taleb.
+
+### Phase F — fund flow, which is currently a gap for every issuer
+
+Flow is the question people actually ask of an ETF — is money going in or out — and today the
+answer is "gap" for all four issuers, for two different reasons.
+
+`fundFlow` computes the only honest version: `(shares_now − shares_prior) × NAV`. Shares
+created and redeemed are what a flow IS; an AUM change is a flow plus a market move, and
+reporting the second as the first is the standard way this number gets faked.
+
+What is available, verified by live fetch:
+
+| issuer | shares outstanding | flow today |
+|---|---|---|
+| iShares | **yes** — in the holdings CSV header (`Shares Outstanding, "82,650,000.00"`) with its own date | no: only today's file is retrievable |
+| SSGA | sometimes — absent from some funds' holdings files | no |
+| Invesco | no — `/nav` and `/profile` both answer HTTP 501 | no |
+| Vanguard | no keyless endpoint | no |
+
+So even where the share count is published, only **one** dated observation is reachable, and a
+flow needs two. iShares serves no dated holdings file (`?asOfDate=` is a 404) and its product
+page carries field metadata, not a time series. There is no keyless history to fetch.
+
+**F1. An observation ledger.** Every run already retrieves the holdings file. Record what it
+saw — symbol, as-of date, shares outstanding, NAV, AUM — under the run data directory, append
+only, one row per symbol per as-of date. From the second observation of a symbol onward the
+flow is computable exactly, by the arithmetic already implemented.
+
+This bootstraps rather than backfills, and that is the honest trade: a user who runs SOXX
+weekly has weekly flows after the second week. It is not a substitute for a vendor flow series
+and the fact says so.
+
+**F2. Flow as a typed fact.** `fund.net_flow` (monetary, currency + scale) and
+`fund.net_flow_ratio` (flow ÷ AUM, so a small fund's move is comparable to a large one), each
+carrying the two dated observations it was computed from and the gap in days between them. A
+flow computed across a 40-day gap is not a daily flow and must not be read as one.
+
+**F3. Seats that should read it.** Flow is a crowding and reflexivity signal, not a valuation
+one. `master_soros` reads it directly — participant behaviour reinforcing price is his
+mechanism, and creations against a rising price is that loop in its most literal form.
+`master_druckenmiller` reads it as price confirmation. `master_marks` reads persistent inflow
+into an already-expensive basket as where the cycle stands. No valuation seat should read it:
+a flow says nothing about what a business earns.
+
+**Done and measured.** The accuracy question turned out to be the whole problem, and the
+answer is which share count is allowed to price a flow.
+
+A flow is a DIFFERENCE of two counts, so it cancels the number and keeps the error. Three
+routes to a count exist and only two may be differenced:
+
+| route | basis | flow-eligible |
+|---|---|---|
+| the holdings file's own `Shares Outstanding` (iShares) | filed | **yes** |
+| issuer assets ÷ issuer NAV, same source, same date | an identity, not an estimate | **yes** |
+| disclosed positions ÷ market price | reconstruction | **no** |
+
+The third is fine for a market capitalisation — the product is the size we already had — and
+unfit for a flow: a 95%-priced position sum and a premium to NAV each carry error that survives
+the subtraction. Half a percent at each end of a $300bn fund manufactures $1.5bn of flow that
+never happened, and it appears as conviction exactly when the market moved.
+
+The second route is what makes **sector ETFs** work, which is the case people ask about most.
+The Select Sector SPDRs publish no share count in their holdings file, but do publish assets
+and NAV — and assets over NAV is shares outstanding by definition. Verified live: XLK 654.8M
+shares, SOXX 82.7M from its filed count.
+
+**F4. Refuse rather than estimate.** Where only one observation exists, or the issuer publishes
+no share count at all, the fact is absent with a named reason. The failure mode this guards
+against is deriving flow from an AUM change — which would silently report a market rally as an
+inflow, and would be wrong in exactly the direction that makes a momentum story look confirmed.
+
+### Phase E — basket bands where the company threshold is degenerate
+
+For each seat unblocked above, decide explicitly whether the authored threshold means the same
+thing on a basket. Graham's NCAV line and Burry's net-net test are the obvious candidates for a
+basket-specific band. This is authoring work, per seat, and it is what stops Phase C from
+producing eighteen confident numbers that all mean "the pipeline handed me a float".
+
+## Expected result
+
+| | before | after A+B | after C |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| QQQ | 11/27 | 12/27 | **16/27** |
+| SOXX | 0/27 (unregistered) | 9/27 | **17/27** |
+| SOX | 0/27 (unregistered) | 1/27 | 1/27 |
+| AAPL (company path, control) | 18/27 | 18/27 | **18/27** |
+| union over seven symbols | 26/27 | — | **27/27, none mute** |
+
+QQQ trails SOXX because Invesco publishes no share count, so its market capitalisation is
+reconstructed rather than filed, and because more of its constituents fall below the
+look-through coverage floor. SOX itself stays low: it is a cash index with no aggregate P/E
+published by any implemented source, so the valuation seats have nothing to read even now.
+
+Measured the same way as v1.0.0: live grounding, no fixtures, contract failures counted
+separately from abstentions.
+
+## Sequencing note
+
+A and B are mechanical and independently verifiable. C is where the judgment is, and it should
+not start until B is measured — if wiring the legal ratios moves QQQ from 11 to 19, that is the
+control group that tells us the yield conversion is doing what it claims rather than the
+coverage improving underneath it.

package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/a.json

@@ -18,29 +18,29 @@
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package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/b.json

@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@
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package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/c.json

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package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/d13.json

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@@ -111,32 +111,32 @@
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-        "structured_decision_hash": "sha256:eb514b40fdcc1c631b294d8337f09ec35b1f990ab038e59167ef56c7021b4796"
+        "structured_decision_hash": "sha256:681107df21fe8be65cc2e1ed044625466f9d0ac900b28f8eaaa79614d87d37f7"
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-        "frozen_decision_hash": "sha256:b088edad92a352a15ea315ca85e3ea3e504e6a2c6b9126446d7aa7b98060ae0f",
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+        "fact_pack_hash": "sha256:6735e9705be48f6b9c19db94360b13ad6727db15e288c4e1225664ddd1d1a5a1",
+        "frozen_decision_hash": "sha256:779b9a62a801452bc1b48e809692f25d10348c43978a44d9e860b2706d84dbfe",
         "native_state": "provisional_watch",
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         "persona_id": "master_pabrai",
-        "policy_execution_hash": "sha256:23dfb7ff5fb42e8aabfa021222d7f6b3341e2bfb93fb3a378ec9e60b75128bd3",
+        "policy_execution_hash": "sha256:87a2a8034242271ddea852302c001d0e0ef35de1b75cd01c5041d436693da2b0",
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-        "structured_decision_hash": "sha256:7dfbd10cb8eb1ab9e62d8477eb7128e9f5a08b3d0dd0aa27a2fc4ecf3b85f2f3"
+        "structured_decision_hash": "sha256:200220879e34db72003a0570b0408c74da25aaa505bb72f015efed0cf974fc97"
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@@ -153,18 +153,18 @@
         "structured_decision_hash": "sha256:5bd03ac086a21a13f1f4fbef0233d5a9353414ccf2de776415b7585fff505caa"
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-        "frozen_decision_hash": "sha256:abcf4e744a91d695c71d6429bc7d90cf7826688fcb96690314c147b556bb784a",
+        "anonymous_method_hash": "sha256:629a8267e6a28e25a922d6679774255be176ef0b4a7f88fa9f851cc49533b8cc",
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+        "fact_pack_hash": "sha256:e7dc8ac4090650fae587cdb5095e75b5d90b5fea3b961c7394cce42ce70ce27a",
+        "frozen_decision_hash": "sha256:a6827bae19091db87a530543335d7bd7cbbf7a2d8702b0671ff463e1c9b9bd4c",
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-        "policy_execution_hash": "sha256:2c6090559d28e32fa4c3e13e171c94cf34d6ecd0455e3545515111a72f3a37b3",
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-        "structured_decision_hash": "sha256:528bbc9e17bc29d081b7170d70e78053c6a803909bf240e0a0120f3c252a13ee"
+        "structured_decision_hash": "sha256:d2a94dafc7057920c5fdcf6d52fd984f3190316d2276f6910f3f8ceb30b57d25"
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@@ -209,18 +209,18 @@
         "structured_decision_hash": "sha256:8d2734b72de1c1679f54dcce76cb200cf00fc20eae3a54751614dfd65ee7d3a8"
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-        "frozen_decision_hash": "sha256:f758e6c2c6166fcd40ef2cb68dc80402f14c8d8097f90cce629ae7df3e652fde",
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+        "policy_execution_hash": "sha256:63a783a6971d798f8e57c797376bd780bb6dd7a23ddac0a03983e3660842125d",
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-        "structured_decision_hash": "sha256:57a0f42891d0004baf89a7009aff6e17b504ebf8b8152ab288b54fe08438a4a7"
+        "structured_decision_hash": "sha256:1f311deaad734cbe73028eeefe08e2a967ad680a182cc415469bde700f01b490"
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@@ -234,7 +234,7 @@
     "verifier_checks": []
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   "reviewer_kind": "ai",
-  "run_artifact_hash": "sha256:6a1dc3da8edf2b2d406cb1d4ae96aad6bfd8da8d0bfd49044b8d8a3dffd288b0",
+  "run_artifact_hash": "sha256:6e5ae1711c012a4a7bb670090485ed071f5fdb66f33145e3adf9fb394c2231df",
   "run_id": "D13",
   "schema_version": 1,
   "simulation_scope": "13 physical provisional deterministic seats on frozen synthetic typed facts"