alphacouncil-agent 0.9.4 → 1.0.0

This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
Files changed (478) hide show
  1. package/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json +3 -3
  2. package/.claude-plugin/plugin.json +2 -2
  3. package/.codex-plugin/plugin.json +4 -4
  4. package/AGENTS.md +22 -7
  5. package/CHANGELOG.md +97 -0
  6. package/CLAUDE.md +21 -3
  7. package/README.ja.md +9 -5
  8. package/README.md +15 -7
  9. package/README.zh-CN.md +12 -7
  10. package/data/authored/core-seats.mjs +808 -0
  11. package/data/authored/growth-seats.mjs +581 -0
  12. package/data/authored/index.mjs +114 -0
  13. package/data/authored/quant-seats.mjs +564 -0
  14. package/data/authored/value-seats.mjs +663 -0
  15. package/data/build-profile.v1.json +2 -1
  16. package/data/council-evaluation-protocol.v1.json +7 -4
  17. package/data/master-selector-method-locales.v1.mjs +10 -0
  18. package/data/persona-v3-ai-assisted-solo-profile.v1.json +2 -2
  19. package/data/persona-v3-build-specs.v1.mjs +60 -3
  20. package/docs/INSTALL.md +4 -4
  21. package/docs/personas.md +2 -1
  22. package/docs/plans/v1.0-roadmap.md +487 -0
  23. package/docs/releases/v0.9.5.md +96 -0
  24. package/docs/releases/v1.0.0.md +164 -0
  25. package/docs/report-contract.md +30 -6
  26. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/a.json +13 -13
  27. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/b.json +2 -2
  28. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/c.json +2 -2
  29. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/d13.json +126 -126
  30. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/d26.json +274 -254
  31. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/e-d13.json +129 -129
  32. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/e-d26.json +277 -257
  33. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/runs/h_ai_reference.json +278 -258
  34. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/simulation-input.json +7278 -556
  35. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/experiments/simulation-manifest.json +22 -22
  36. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_ackman/reviews/{change_value_bridge.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  37. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_ackman/reviews/{power_map.ai-review.json → owner_earnings_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  38. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_aschenbrenner/reviews/{compute_power_bridge.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  39. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_aschenbrenner/reviews/{timeline_reverse_valuation.ai-review.json → price_implied_cash_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  40. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_asness/reviews/{crowding_cost_stress.ai-review.json → nominal_earnings_yield_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  41. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_asness/reviews/{factor_decomposer.ai-review.json → real_earnings_yield_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  42. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_bogle/reviews/expected_return_over_long_bond.ai-review.json +277 -0
  43. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_bogle/reviews/fundamental_expected_return.ai-review.json +277 -0
  44. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_buffett/reviews/{incremental_returns.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  45. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_buffett/reviews/{owner_earnings_rebuilder.ai-review.json → owner_earnings_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  46. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_burry/reviews/{mispricing_carry.ai-review.json → net_current_asset_surplus_per_share.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  47. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_burry/reviews/{capital_structure_reader.ai-review.json → net_current_asset_value_per_share.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  48. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_cathie_wood/reviews/{cost_adoption_curve.ai-review.json → current_cash_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  49. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_cathie_wood/reviews/{capture_valuation_bridge.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  50. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_dalio/reviews/{debt_driver_stress.ai-review.json → policy_real_rate.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  51. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_dalio/reviews/{regime_classifier.ai-review.json → real_curve_slope.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  52. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_damodaran/reviews/{reverse_valuation.ai-review.json → implied_equity_risk_premium.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  53. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_damodaran/reviews/{story_dcf.ai-review.json → premium_versus_long_run_average.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  54. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_druckenmiller/reviews/{liquidity_revision_map.ai-review.json → liquidity_curve_impulse.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  55. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_druckenmiller/reviews/{inflection_payoff.ai-review.json → policy_real_rate.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  56. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_duan_yongping/reviews/{opportunity_cost.ai-review.json → five_year_opportunity_cost.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  57. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_duan_yongping/reviews/{user_value_evidence.ai-review.json → margin_retention.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  58. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_fisher/reviews/{research_productivity.ai-review.json → margin_retention.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  59. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_fisher/reviews/{scuttlebutt_graph.ai-review.json → reinvestment_spread.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  60. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_forensic_short/reviews/{borrow_catalyst.ai-review.json → cash_conversion_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  61. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_forensic_short/reviews/{accounting_rebuilder.ai-review.json → cash_cover_of_leverage.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  62. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_graham/reviews/{asset_floor.ai-review.json → defensive_hurdle_base.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  63. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_graham/reviews/{normalized_earnings.ai-review.json → half_normalised_earnings_yield.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  64. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_jhunjhunwala/reviews/{penetration_liquidity.ai-review.json → cash_quality_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  65. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_jhunjhunwala/reviews/{promoter_governance.ai-review.json → real_structural_growth.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  66. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_klarman/reviews/{recovery_waterfall.ai-review.json → downside_asset_coverage.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  67. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_klarman/reviews/{cash_catalyst_compare.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  68. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_li_lu/reviews/{promise_integrity_ledger.ai-review.json → cash_backed_decade_return.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  69. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_li_lu/reviews/{ten_year_return_bridge.ai-review.json → decade_return_over_long_bond.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  70. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_lynch/reviews/{story_numbers_check.ai-review.json → growth_justified_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  71. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_lynch/reviews/{category_classifier.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  72. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_marks/reviews/{cycle_temperature.ai-review.json → credit_cycle_position.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  73. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_marks/reviews/{implied_expectations.ai-review.json → equity_over_corporate_debt.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  74. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_munger/reviews/{failure_path_graph.ai-review.json → debt_service_cushion.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  75. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_munger/reviews/{incentive_map.ai-review.json → reported_earnings_cash_gap.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  76. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_natenberg/reviews/{surface_builder.ai-review.json → normalised_skew.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  77. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_natenberg/reviews/{greeks_payoff.ai-review.json → round_trip_cost.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  78. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_pabrai/reviews/{downside_floor.ai-review.json → downside_floor_coverage.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  79. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_pabrai/reviews/{discrete_payoff.ai-review.json → market_capitalisation.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  80. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_simons/reviews/{oos_cost_test.ai-review.json → absolute_session_move.ai-review.json} +42 -42
  81. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_simons/reviews/{leakage_audit.ai-review.json → session_move_over_implied.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  82. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_sinclair/reviews/{realized_vol_forecast.ai-review.json → round_trip_cost.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  83. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_sinclair/reviews/{net_edge_sizer.ai-review.json → volatility_per_unit_of_width.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  84. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_soros/reviews/{reversal_monitor.ai-review.json → credit_cycle_position.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  85. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_soros/reviews/{reflexivity_graph.ai-review.json → financing_burden.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  86. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_taleb/reviews/{tail_friction.ai-review.json → debt_service_cushion.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  87. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_taleb/reviews/{payoff_ruin.ai-review.json → normalised_skew.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  88. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_thorp/reviews/{edge_recalculator.ai-review.json → edge_per_unit_of_volatility.ai-review.json} +46 -46
  89. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/master_thorp/reviews/{fractional_kelly.ai-review.json → net_edge.ai-review.json} +49 -49
  90. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-formula-reviews/review-manifest.json +288 -270
  91. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-semantic-adjudications/index.json +2 -2
  92. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-semantic-extractions/index.json +2 -2
  93. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-semantic-skeptic-reviews/index.json +2 -2
  94. package/knowledge/ai-assisted-solo/reviews/persona-v3-ai-source-prereviews/index.json +6 -2
  95. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/decision_policy.json +122 -11
  96. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  97. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/manifest.json +13 -6
  98. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  99. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  100. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_ackman/tools.json +56 -30
  101. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/decision_policy.json +101 -10
  102. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  103. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/manifest.json +12 -4
  104. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  105. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  106. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_aschenbrenner/tools.json +56 -30
  107. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/decision_policy.json +89 -10
  108. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  109. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/manifest.json +11 -4
  110. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  111. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  112. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_asness/tools.json +56 -30
  113. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/counterfactuals.jsonl +0 -0
  114. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/decision_cases.jsonl +0 -0
  115. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/decision_policy.json +170 -0
  116. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/doctrine.jsonl +14 -0
  117. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/evaluation/calibration_cases.jsonl +0 -0
  118. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/evaluation/experiments.json +5 -0
  119. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/evaluation/golden_cases.jsonl +0 -0
  120. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/evaluation/pairwise_cases.jsonl +0 -0
  121. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/failures.jsonl +0 -0
  122. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/manifest.json +141 -0
  123. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/memory_policy.json +5 -0
  124. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/provisional-index.json +41 -0
  125. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/research_policy.json +11 -0
  126. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/sources.jsonl +1 -0
  127. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/tools.json +120 -0
  128. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/voice.en.md +7 -0
  129. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_bogle/voice.zh.md +7 -0
  130. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/decision_policy.json +102 -11
  131. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  132. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/manifest.json +10 -4
  133. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  134. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  135. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_buffett/tools.json +55 -29
  136. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/decision_policy.json +102 -12
  137. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  138. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/manifest.json +12 -6
  139. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  140. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  141. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_burry/tools.json +56 -30
  142. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/decision_policy.json +74 -12
  143. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  144. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/manifest.json +12 -6
  145. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  146. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  147. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_cathie_wood/tools.json +56 -30
  148. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/decision_policy.json +123 -16
  149. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  150. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/manifest.json +10 -4
  151. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  152. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  153. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_dalio/tools.json +56 -30
  154. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/decision_policy.json +58 -10
  155. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  156. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/manifest.json +9 -4
  157. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  158. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  159. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_damodaran/tools.json +54 -28
  160. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/decision_policy.json +89 -10
  161. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  162. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/manifest.json +11 -4
  163. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  164. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  165. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_druckenmiller/tools.json +55 -29
  166. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/decision_policy.json +138 -13
  167. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  168. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/manifest.json +17 -7
  169. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  170. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  171. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_duan_yongping/tools.json +82 -30
  172. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/decision_policy.json +102 -11
  173. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  174. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/manifest.json +13 -6
  175. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  176. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  177. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_fisher/tools.json +58 -32
  178. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/decision_policy.json +93 -14
  179. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  180. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/manifest.json +6 -4
  181. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  182. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  183. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_forensic_short/tools.json +53 -27
  184. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/decision_policy.json +103 -12
  185. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  186. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/manifest.json +12 -4
  187. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  188. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  189. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_graham/tools.json +67 -28
  190. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_jhunjhunwala/decision_policy.json +77 -12
  191. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_jhunjhunwala/doctrine.jsonl +2 -2
  192. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_jhunjhunwala/manifest.json +11 -6
  193. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_jhunjhunwala/provisional-index.json +3 -3
  194. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_jhunjhunwala/sources.jsonl +1 -1
  195. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_jhunjhunwala/tools.json +54 -28
  196. package/knowledge/solo-test/masters/master_klarman/decision_policy.json +105 -14
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@@ -2,7 +2,28 @@
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2
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3
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@@ -10,21 +31,74 @@
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31
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11
32
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12
33
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13
- "hard_vetoes": [],
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+ "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
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+ "proxy:0098985e34825996c"
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86
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14
88
  "native_decision_schema": "ownership_candidate_v1",
15
89
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16
90
  {
17
91
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18
92
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19
93
  "value": {
20
- "output_id": "financial.owner_earnings"
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+ "output_id": "valuation.market_capitalisation.master_buffett"
21
95
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22
96
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23
97
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24
98
  "field": "metric_2",
25
99
  "on_missing": "fail",
26
100
  "value": {
27
- "output_id": "financial.incremental_return_on_capital"
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+ "output_id": "valuation.owner_earnings_yield.master_buffett"
28
102
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29
103
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30
104
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@@ -52,14 +126,14 @@
52
126
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53
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54
128
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55
- "common_stance": "cautious",
129
+ "common_stance": "constructive",
56
130
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57
131
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58
132
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59
133
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60
134
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61
135
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62
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136
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63
137
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64
138
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65
139
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@@ -69,16 +143,16 @@
69
143
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70
144
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71
145
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72
- "output_id": "financial.owner_earnings"
146
+ "output_id": "valuation.owner_earnings_yield.master_buffett"
73
147
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74
148
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75
149
  "right": {
76
- "literal": 0
150
+ "fact_id": "macro.long_bond_yield"
77
151
  }
78
152
  },
79
153
  "coverage_weight": 1,
80
154
  "points": 1,
81
- "rule_id": "proxy_score_1",
155
+ "rule_id": "buffett_owner_yield_beats_long_bond",
82
156
  "source_ids": [
83
157
  "proxy:0098985e34825996c"
84
158
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@@ -86,16 +160,33 @@
86
160
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87
161
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88
162
  "left": {
89
- "output_id": "financial.incremental_return_on_capital"
163
+ "fact_id": "financial.return_on_equity_10y"
90
164
  },
91
165
  "op": "gt",
166
+ "right": {
167
+ "literal": 0.2
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+ }
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+ },
170
+ "coverage_weight": 1,
171
+ "points": 1,
172
+ "rule_id": "buffett_decade_return_on_equity",
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+ "source_ids": [
174
+ "proxy:0098985e34825996c"
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+ ]
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+ },
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+ {
178
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179
+ "left": {
180
+ "fact_id": "capital_allocation.share_count_change_5y"
181
+ },
182
+ "op": "lte",
92
183
  "right": {
93
184
  "literal": 0
94
185
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95
186
  },
96
187
  "coverage_weight": 1,
97
188
  "points": 1,
98
- "rule_id": "proxy_score_2",
189
+ "rule_id": "buffett_share_count_not_diluted",
99
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  "source_ids": [
100
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  "proxy:0098985e34825996c"
101
192
  ]
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
1
1
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Evaluate understandable operating businesses through owner earnings, durable competitive advantage, capital allocation and price versus conservative business value.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_1","source_ids":["proxy:0098985e34825996c"]}
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- {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Recompute owner earnings with explicit maintenance-investment assumptions.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_2","source_ids":["proxy:0098985e34825996c"]}
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- {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Measure incremental returns and reinvestment economics over complete cycles.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_3","source_ids":["proxy:0098985e34825996c"]}
2
+ {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Owner earnings are an absolute currency amount and mean nothing until they are set against what the whole business costs. Price times share count is that denominator.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_2","source_ids":["proxy:0098985e34825996c"]}
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+ {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"The rate an owner earns on the purchase price, which is the only figure the 1999 Fortune argument can set against a bond.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_3","source_ids":["proxy:0098985e34825996c"]}
4
4
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Decline when the business economics cannot be stated and tested.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_4","source_ids":["proxy:0098985e34825996c"]}
5
5
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject quality claims that depend on leverage rather than operating economics.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_5","source_ids":["proxy:0098985e34825996c"]}
6
6
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject valuation when owner earnings cannot be reconstructed from sourced inputs.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_6","source_ids":["proxy:0098985e34825996c"]}
@@ -16,13 +16,17 @@
16
16
  ],
17
17
  "native_decision_schema": "ownership_candidate_v1",
18
18
  "optional_fact_types": [
19
- "business.model.explainability",
20
19
  "financial.incremental_return_on_capital",
21
20
  "financial.leverage",
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- "capital_allocation.share_count",
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+ "macro.long_bond_yield",
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+ "financial.return_on_equity_10y",
23
+ "capital_allocation.share_count_change_5y",
24
+ "business.model.explainability",
23
25
  "valuation.expected_owner_return"
24
26
  ],
25
27
  "required_fact_types": [
28
+ "market.price",
29
+ "capital_allocation.share_count",
26
30
  "financial.owner_earnings"
27
31
  ]
28
32
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@@ -44,8 +48,8 @@
44
48
  "computation": {
45
49
  "dsl_version": "1.1",
46
50
  "pipeline": [
47
- "master_buffett.owner_earnings_rebuilder",
48
- "master_buffett.incremental_returns"
51
+ "master_buffett.market_capitalisation",
52
+ "master_buffett.owner_earnings_yield"
49
53
  ]
50
54
  },
51
55
  "decision": {
@@ -53,6 +57,8 @@
53
57
  "common_projection": "common_stance_v1",
54
58
  "confidence_calibrator": null,
55
59
  "eligibility": [
60
+ "market.price",
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+ "capital_allocation.share_count",
56
62
  "financial.owner_earnings"
57
63
  ],
58
64
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@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@
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21
21
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22
22
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@@ -26,8 +26,8 @@
26
26
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27
27
  "persona_id": "master_buffett",
28
28
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- "master_buffett.owner_earnings_rebuilder",
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- "master_buffett.incremental_returns"
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+ "master_buffett.market_capitalisation",
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+ "master_buffett.owner_earnings_yield"
31
31
  ],
32
32
  "production_eligible": false,
33
33
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@@ -1 +1 @@
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@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
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3
3
  "assurance_class": "provisional_derived_proxy",
4
- "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:781ec61b1bc0e350a48743c34adca2d24761e66dea143bea40cc9c5918bb5503",
5
- "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:176668e0b04779a82267e4098ff9d2c6ac61c2a3870fd360b426e29bd9302a5a",
6
- "derivation_spec_id": "master_buffett.owner_earnings_rebuilder.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
4
+ "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:81f901ddcf0074860078513ebddb1e97e4490c4ab0e2c81d38cb05e3410789c2",
5
+ "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:e2b7d9707d088228b5783a421efb0c2150551f8162409024dfcbbce4d4ff3e99",
6
+ "derivation_spec_id": "master_buffett.market_capitalisation.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
7
7
  "dsl_version": "1.1",
8
- "id": "master_buffett.owner_earnings_rebuilder",
8
+ "id": "master_buffett.market_capitalisation",
9
9
  "input_contracts": [
10
10
  {
11
11
  "on_missing": "fail",
@@ -14,45 +14,68 @@
14
14
  "basis": "instant",
15
15
  "window": null
16
16
  },
17
- "unit": "derived_proxy_scalar",
18
- "value_kind": "scalar"
17
+ "unit": "currency_units",
18
+ "value_kind": "monetary"
19
+ },
20
+ {
21
+ "on_missing": "fail",
22
+ "period": {
23
+ "alignment": "as_of",
24
+ "basis": "duration",
25
+ "window": "P1Y"
26
+ },
27
+ "unit": "shares",
28
+ "value_kind": "count"
19
29
  }
20
30
  ],
21
- "input_schema_hash": "sha256:f4b8e10fc113ebfccf99899d9fe73e77c25f4f23069a0ec09b7dbe93d826ff21",
31
+ "input_schema_hash": "sha256:d7fc602e53fe450884a1aa70a5f83037e071efec366688da75cbeb20d8031a4d",
22
32
  "inputs": [
23
33
  {
24
- "fact_id": "financial.owner_earnings"
34
+ "fact_id": "market.price"
35
+ },
36
+ {
37
+ "fact_id": "capital_allocation.share_count"
25
38
  }
26
39
  ],
27
40
  "intended_use": "local_test_only",
28
- "kind": "transform",
41
+ "kind": "recomputation",
29
42
  "on_missing": "fail",
30
- "operation": "identity",
31
- "output_id": "financial.owner_earnings",
43
+ "operation": "multiply",
44
+ "output_id": "valuation.market_capitalisation.master_buffett",
32
45
  "output_period": {
33
46
  "alignment": "as_of",
34
47
  "basis": "instant",
35
48
  "window": null
36
49
  },
37
- "output_schema_hash": "sha256:2d2c3c2b4462c741d08acbd351f5172f195574c785ad3eec88999dccd5cf3fb0",
50
+ "output_schema_hash": "sha256:6cb300c674150b38fb450e76414f2df86cf6cab7c6820ea9b69f33d112054211",
38
51
  "production_eligible": false,
39
52
  "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
40
53
  "schema_version": 1,
41
54
  "source_ids": [
42
55
  "proxy:0098985e34825996c"
43
56
  ],
44
- "unit": "derived_proxy_scalar",
45
- "value_kind": "scalar",
46
- "version": "0.1.0"
57
+ "unit": "currency_units",
58
+ "value_kind": "monetary",
59
+ "version": "0.2.0"
47
60
  },
48
61
  {
49
62
  "assurance_class": "provisional_derived_proxy",
50
- "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:67a62f019ec4312e86463e9d1858db99522c65611483c14eab284020249b09ca",
51
- "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:2847885226f0cbf39c4193b18dd17f2ba31fd407967d5a9d6fe7f8939df33421",
52
- "derivation_spec_id": "master_buffett.incremental_returns.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
63
+ "derivation_evidence_hash": "sha256:7582e3511648d170d5286bbb0e0585507d67e340eefa0aa8771a32d4a221f765",
64
+ "derivation_spec_hash": "sha256:bf9af0c7a485960d9fbc7927514c3e5c3c908e4f2236374af71081abcb43c596",
65
+ "derivation_spec_id": "master_buffett.owner_earnings_yield.prototype_v1.derived_proxy_v1",
53
66
  "dsl_version": "1.1",
54
- "id": "master_buffett.incremental_returns",
67
+ "id": "master_buffett.owner_earnings_yield",
55
68
  "input_contracts": [
69
+ {
70
+ "on_missing": "fail",
71
+ "period": {
72
+ "alignment": "as_of",
73
+ "basis": "duration",
74
+ "window": "P1Y"
75
+ },
76
+ "unit": "currency_units",
77
+ "value_kind": "monetary"
78
+ },
56
79
  {
57
80
  "on_missing": "fail",
58
81
  "period": {
@@ -60,35 +83,38 @@
60
83
  "basis": "instant",
61
84
  "window": null
62
85
  },
63
- "unit": "derived_proxy_scalar",
64
- "value_kind": "scalar"
86
+ "unit": "currency_units",
87
+ "value_kind": "monetary"
65
88
  }
66
89
  ],
67
- "input_schema_hash": "sha256:e1d9e623ff7ad9a354ee28e0c24697aa8a3701cca837af59bc401fa3255f6727",
90
+ "input_schema_hash": "sha256:6f8d9ce3c1d15311561e0a0069c80496ce63d07b5f7d4a2f61cba6dcb9900d3b",
68
91
  "inputs": [
69
92
  {
70
93
  "fact_id": "financial.owner_earnings"
94
+ },
95
+ {
96
+ "output_id": "valuation.market_capitalisation.master_buffett"
71
97
  }
72
98
  ],
73
99
  "intended_use": "local_test_only",
74
- "kind": "transform",
100
+ "kind": "recomputation",
75
101
  "on_missing": "fail",
76
- "operation": "identity",
77
- "output_id": "financial.incremental_return_on_capital",
102
+ "operation": "divide",
103
+ "output_id": "valuation.owner_earnings_yield.master_buffett",
78
104
  "output_period": {
79
105
  "alignment": "as_of",
80
106
  "basis": "instant",
81
107
  "window": null
82
108
  },
83
- "output_schema_hash": "sha256:c181cfb5bbec7e26fcdd484415f827b1194a161ef406ab2c17cd4dca9e9e3744",
109
+ "output_schema_hash": "sha256:6e418b8743a1cf8aa537a39edaa2858abb71303533f5de0a717f6af8d2bc53c7",
84
110
  "production_eligible": false,
85
111
  "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",
86
112
  "schema_version": 1,
87
113
  "source_ids": [
88
114
  "proxy:0098985e34825996c"
89
115
  ],
90
- "unit": "derived_proxy_scalar",
91
- "value_kind": "scalar",
92
- "version": "0.1.0"
116
+ "unit": "decimal",
117
+ "value_kind": "ratio",
118
+ "version": "0.2.0"
93
119
  }
94
120
  ]
@@ -2,7 +2,39 @@
2
2
  "abstention_policy": "fail_closed",
3
3
  "dsl_version": "1.1",
4
4
  "eligibility": {
5
- "all": []
5
+ "all": [
6
+ {
7
+ "condition": {
8
+ "conditions": [
9
+ {
10
+ "op": "exists",
11
+ "value": {
12
+ "fact_id": "financial.leverage"
13
+ }
14
+ },
15
+ {
16
+ "op": "exists",
17
+ "value": {
18
+ "fact_id": "financial.interest_coverage"
19
+ }
20
+ }
21
+ ],
22
+ "op": "all"
23
+ },
24
+ "condition_id": "master_burry.capital_structure_readable",
25
+ "on_false": {
26
+ "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
27
+ "native_state": "provisional_document_gap"
28
+ },
29
+ "on_uncomputable": {
30
+ "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
31
+ "native_state": "provisional_document_gap"
32
+ },
33
+ "source_ids": [
34
+ "proxy:671173c81294794a1"
35
+ ]
36
+ }
37
+ ]
6
38
  },
7
39
  "fact_gate": {
8
40
  "on_missing_critical": {
@@ -10,21 +42,62 @@
10
42
  "native_state": "provisional_document_gap"
11
43
  }
12
44
  },
13
- "hard_vetoes": [],
45
+ "hard_vetoes": [
46
+ {
47
+ "condition": {
48
+ "conditions": [
49
+ {
50
+ "left": {
51
+ "fact_id": "financial.leverage"
52
+ },
53
+ "op": "gt",
54
+ "right": {
55
+ "literal": 1
56
+ }
57
+ },
58
+ {
59
+ "left": {
60
+ "fact_id": "financial.interest_coverage"
61
+ },
62
+ "op": "lt",
63
+ "right": {
64
+ "literal": 1
65
+ }
66
+ }
67
+ ],
68
+ "op": "all"
69
+ },
70
+ "on_trigger": {
71
+ "common_stance": "opposed",
72
+ "native_state": "provisional_opinion_only"
73
+ },
74
+ "on_uncomputable": {
75
+ "action": "abstain",
76
+ "decision": {
77
+ "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
78
+ "native_state": "provisional_document_gap"
79
+ }
80
+ },
81
+ "source_ids": [
82
+ "proxy:671173c81294794a1"
83
+ ],
84
+ "veto_id": "master_burry.cannot_survive_the_wait"
85
+ }
86
+ ],
14
87
  "native_decision_schema": "structural_mispricing_v1",
15
88
  "native_output_fields": [
16
89
  {
17
90
  "field": "metric_1",
18
91
  "on_missing": "fail",
19
92
  "value": {
20
- "output_id": "capital_structure.seniority"
93
+ "output_id": "valuation.net_current_asset_value_per_share.master_burry"
21
94
  }
22
95
  },
23
96
  {
24
97
  "field": "metric_2",
25
98
  "on_missing": "fail",
26
99
  "value": {
27
- "output_id": "mispricing.mechanism"
100
+ "output_id": "valuation.net_current_asset_surplus_per_share.master_burry"
28
101
  }
29
102
  }
30
103
  ],
@@ -52,14 +125,14 @@
52
125
  },
53
126
  {
54
127
  "decision": {
55
- "common_stance": "cautious",
128
+ "common_stance": "constructive",
56
129
  "native_state": "provisional_structural_mispricing"
57
130
  },
58
131
  "min_ratio": 1
59
132
  }
60
133
  ],
61
134
  "scoring": {
62
- "max_score": 2,
135
+ "max_score": 3,
63
136
  "min_coverage": 1,
64
137
  "on_insufficient_coverage": {
65
138
  "common_stance": "out_of_scope",
@@ -69,7 +142,7 @@
69
142
  {
70
143
  "condition": {
71
144
  "left": {
72
- "output_id": "capital_structure.seniority"
145
+ "output_id": "valuation.net_current_asset_surplus_per_share.master_burry"
73
146
  },
74
147
  "op": "gt",
75
148
  "right": {
@@ -78,7 +151,7 @@
78
151
  },
79
152
  "coverage_weight": 1,
80
153
  "points": 1,
81
- "rule_id": "proxy_score_1",
154
+ "rule_id": "burry_price_below_net_current_assets",
82
155
  "source_ids": [
83
156
  "proxy:671173c81294794a1"
84
157
  ]
@@ -86,16 +159,33 @@
86
159
  {
87
160
  "condition": {
88
161
  "left": {
89
- "output_id": "mispricing.mechanism"
162
+ "fact_id": "financial.leverage"
90
163
  },
91
- "op": "gt",
164
+ "op": "lte",
92
165
  "right": {
93
- "literal": 0
166
+ "literal": 1
167
+ }
168
+ },
169
+ "coverage_weight": 1,
170
+ "points": 1,
171
+ "rule_id": "burry_equity_not_junior_to_more_debt_than_equity",
172
+ "source_ids": [
173
+ "proxy:671173c81294794a1"
174
+ ]
175
+ },
176
+ {
177
+ "condition": {
178
+ "left": {
179
+ "fact_id": "financial.interest_coverage"
180
+ },
181
+ "op": "gte",
182
+ "right": {
183
+ "literal": 5
94
184
  }
95
185
  },
96
186
  "coverage_weight": 1,
97
187
  "points": 1,
98
- "rule_id": "proxy_score_2",
188
+ "rule_id": "burry_issuer_can_wait_for_the_thesis",
99
189
  "source_ids": [
100
190
  "proxy:671173c81294794a1"
101
191
  ]
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
1
1
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Start from primary documents and capital structure to find structural, mechanically verifiable mispricing and test whether the position can survive being early.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_1","source_ids":["proxy:671173c81294794a1"]}
2
- {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Rebuild seniority, maturities, covenants and off-balance-sheet claims from filings.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_2","source_ids":["proxy:671173c81294794a1"]}
3
- {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Quantify the mechanical mispricing, carry, borrow and forced-exit conditions.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_3","source_ids":["proxy:671173c81294794a1"]}
2
+ {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Working capital net of every liability, expressed per share so that it can be set against a share price. This is the balance-sheet floor the early letters describe buying beneath, before any judgement about the business enters.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_2","source_ids":["proxy:671173c81294794a1"]}
3
+ {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"What is left per share once the price is paid, counted only in assets that turn into cash inside a year. Kept as a subtraction in one currency rather than as a coverage ratio so that both sides of the comparison stay in the same units.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_3","source_ids":["proxy:671173c81294794a1"]}
4
4
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject a load-bearing number that cannot be traced to an opened primary document.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_4","source_ids":["proxy:671173c81294794a1"]}
5
5
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject a trade when disagreement is subjective rather than mechanically testable.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_5","source_ids":["proxy:671173c81294794a1"]}
6
6
  {"assurance_class":"provisional_derived_proxy","attribution_status":"provisional_not_human_reviewed","claim":"Reject when carry, margin or borrow can force exit before intermediate signals resolve.","rule_id":"proxy_rule_6","source_ids":["proxy:671173c81294794a1"]}
@@ -16,15 +16,20 @@
16
16
  ],
17
17
  "native_decision_schema": "structural_mispricing_v1",
18
18
  "optional_fact_types": [
19
+ "financial.leverage",
20
+ "financial.interest_coverage",
21
+ "capital_structure.seniority",
19
22
  "credit.maturity_schedule",
20
23
  "accounting.policy_choices",
21
24
  "accounting.off_balance_sheet",
25
+ "mispricing.mechanism",
22
26
  "trade.carry",
23
27
  "short.borrow_availability"
24
28
  ],
25
29
  "required_fact_types": [
26
- "capital_structure.seniority",
27
- "mispricing.mechanism"
30
+ "financial.net_current_asset_value",
31
+ "capital_allocation.share_count",
32
+ "market.price"
28
33
  ]
29
34
  },
30
35
  "components": {
@@ -45,8 +50,8 @@
45
50
  "computation": {
46
51
  "dsl_version": "1.1",
47
52
  "pipeline": [
48
- "master_burry.capital_structure_reader",
49
- "master_burry.mispricing_carry"
53
+ "master_burry.net_current_asset_value_per_share",
54
+ "master_burry.net_current_asset_surplus_per_share"
50
55
  ]
51
56
  },
52
57
  "decision": {
@@ -54,8 +59,9 @@
54
59
  "common_projection": "common_stance_v1",
55
60
  "confidence_calibrator": null,
56
61
  "eligibility": [
57
- "capital_structure.seniority",
58
- "mispricing.mechanism"
62
+ "financial.net_current_asset_value",
63
+ "capital_allocation.share_count",
64
+ "market.price"
59
65
  ],
60
66
  "hard_vetoes": [
61
67
  "master_burry.secondary_only",
@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@
16
16
  ],
17
17
  "experiment_pass_count": 0,
18
18
  "formula_approval_binding_count": 0,
19
- "formula_compilation_manifest_hash": "sha256:7265b10a67bd0437af02572176793ef0b8529e48437edc5a2e0b1b1b9fbe73d0",
19
+ "formula_compilation_manifest_hash": "sha256:fc8afd469d9cafccccc4221622ccde5061167c538ab6472eecaaf65efce5461b",
20
20
  "method_model_eligible": false,
21
21
  "native_states": [
22
22
  "provisional_document_gap",
@@ -26,8 +26,8 @@
26
26
  ],
27
27
  "persona_id": "master_burry",
28
28
  "planned_tool_ids": [
29
- "master_burry.capital_structure_reader",
30
- "master_burry.mispricing_carry"
29
+ "master_burry.net_current_asset_value_per_share",
30
+ "master_burry.net_current_asset_surplus_per_share"
31
31
  ],
32
32
  "production_eligible": false,
33
33
  "review_status": "not_human_reviewed",