agent-nuvira 3.3.12 → 3.3.14

package/dist/learning/router-bandit.js

@@ -27,6 +27,22 @@ import { analyzeComplexity } from './hybrid-router.js';
  * unlearned and (when enabled) escalates to a provider/model that has data.
  */
 export const DEFAULT_MIN_SAMPLES = 8;
+/**
+ * How much one deferred `userAccepted: false` moves an arm.
+ *
+ * NOT a new reward rule: the success branch of {@link RouterBandit.applyReward}
+ * already treats `userAccepted: false` as `reward -= 0.1`, and `reward` moves α by
+ * exactly that amount (β by `1 - reward`). Applying the verdict a turn late is
+ * therefore `α -= 0.1, β += 0.1` — byte-for-byte the same arm the run would have
+ * had if the verdict had been known at record time. Stated as a constant so the
+ * two halves cannot drift apart.
+ */
+export const USER_REJECTION_DELTA = 0.1;
+/**
+ * How old the newest recorded outcome may be before the bandit's data stops
+ * being described as "learned" for a decision made today. See `isStale`.
+ */
+export const BANDIT_STALENESS_MS = 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
 /** The complexity buckets the bandit learns per provider. */
 export const COMPLEXITY_BUCKETS = [
     'trivial',
@@ -39,6 +55,8 @@ export const COMPLEXITY_BUCKETS = [
 const DEFAULT_MEMORY_DIR = join(resolveNuviraHome(), 'memory');
 const CURRENT_VERSION = 3; // v2 = per-modelId modelPriors; v3 = task-INTENT-aware buckets
 const MAX_HISTORY = 200;
+/** Cap the applied-verdict dedupe set (oldest drop first — a trace, once old, is never re-rated). */
+const MAX_CORRECTED_VERDICTS = 2000;
 function memoryDir() {
     return envBuff('MEMORY_DIR') || DEFAULT_MEMORY_DIR;
 }
@@ -187,6 +205,99 @@ export class RouterBandit {
     getPrior(provider, complexity, taskIntent) {
         return this.state.priors[this.bucketKey(complexity, taskIntent)]?.[provider] ?? { alpha: 1, beta: 1 };
     }
+    /**
+     * P6 (fix_model_routing) — IS THERE ACTUALLY LEARNED DATA for this arm?
+     *
+     * `Beta(1,1)` is the UNTOUCHED prior: no outcome has ever been recorded for
+     * this provider in this bucket. The router used to call any `useBandit`
+     * decision `bandit-learned`, so a decision made from a cold-start prior — a
+     * score multiplied by a constant 0.5 that cannot reorder anything — was
+     * presented to the user as learned. Live: the store had no entry for ANY of
+     * the models in play, and the trace still read `bandit-learned`.
+     */
+    hasLearnedData(provider, complexity, taskIntent, 
+    /** The concrete model, when known — its own arm is evidence too. */
+    model) {
+        const prior = this.getPrior(provider, complexity, taskIntent);
+        if (prior.alpha + prior.beta > 2)
+            return true;
+        if (model) {
+            const modelPrior = this.getModelPrior(model, complexity, taskIntent);
+            if (modelPrior.alpha + modelPrior.beta > 2)
+                return true;
+        }
+        return false;
+    }
+    /** Milliseconds since the newest recorded outcome (`Infinity` when none). */
+    ageMs(now = Date.now()) {
+        const newest = this.state.learningHistory.reduce((acc, h) => {
+            const t = Date.parse(h.timestamp ?? '');
+            return Number.isFinite(t) && t > acc ? t : acc;
+        }, 0);
+        return newest === 0 ? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY : Math.max(0, now - newest);
+    }
+    /**
+     * P6 (fix_model_routing) — NEGATIVE REWARD for a step-level failure.
+     *
+     * `recordOutcome` rewards a model only when a whole TASK succeeds or fails,
+     * which never happens for the failure that actually killed runs: a model that
+     * resolves a step with NOTHING usable. That model was retried, the turn ended
+     * `bounded`, and the bandit learned nothing — so its prior kept sampling the
+     * same broken arm back up. This is where an ungrounded "learned" score comes
+     * from, and where it is now corrected.
+     *
+     * The signal is a property of the MODEL rather than of the task (a model that
+     * returns nothing fails every kind of ask), so when no bucket is supplied the
+     * penalty lands on every arm that already holds an entry for this model — the
+     * only arms that could otherwise keep sampling it up — and a brand-new model
+     * with no arms at all gets the general bucket rather than inventing
+     * task-specific ones.
+     */
+    penalizeModel(model, complexity, taskIntent) {
+        if (!model || model === 'default')
+            return;
+        const keys = [];
+        if (complexity) {
+            keys.push(this.bucketKey(complexity, taskIntent));
+        }
+        else {
+            for (const key of Object.keys(this.state.modelPriors)) {
+                if (this.state.modelPriors[key]?.[model])
+                    keys.push(key);
+            }
+            if (keys.length === 0)
+                keys.push(this.bucketKey('moderate', taskIntent));
+        }
+        const nowIso = new Date().toISOString();
+        for (const key of keys) {
+            const bucket = this.state.modelPriors[key] ?? (this.state.modelPriors[key] = {});
+            const prior = bucket[model] ?? (bucket[model] = { alpha: 1, beta: 1 });
+            prior.beta += 1;
+            this.state.learningHistory.push({
+                provider: model, // model-id surface; `provider` keeps CLI history rendering
+                model,
+                complexity: (complexity ?? 'moderate'),
+                ...(taskIntent ? { taskIntent } : {}),
+                outcome: 'failure',
+                reward: 0,
+                timestamp: nowIso,
+            });
+        }
+        if (this.state.learningHistory.length > MAX_HISTORY) {
+            this.state.learningHistory = this.state.learningHistory.slice(-MAX_HISTORY);
+        }
+        this.save();
+    }
+    /**
+     * P6 — staleness guard. A store whose newest sample is older than
+     * {@link BANDIT_STALENESS_MS} describes a different machine, different keys
+     * and a different model roster; calling its output "learned" for today's task
+     * is a claim nobody checked. Observed on disk: the store was last written 11
+     * days before the decision it supposedly informed.
+     */
+    isStale(now = Date.now()) {
+        return this.ageMs(now) > BANDIT_STALENESS_MS;
+    }
     /** Note the provider picked for an agent type (for recordOutcome wiring). */
     noteDecision(agentType, provider) {
         this.lastProviderByAgent[agentType] = provider;
@@ -335,6 +446,148 @@ export class RouterBandit {
         }
         this.save();
     }
+    /**
+     * Apply the DEFERRED half of `userAccepted: false` to the arms that served the
+     * turn the user has just corrected.
+     *
+     * WHY DEFERRED. The user's verdict on a turn arrives with their NEXT message
+     * ("still broken", "no change"), but bandit learning happens at the END of the
+     * turn it describes — so the signal can never be part of that turn's own
+     * observation. Reading the user's SILENCE as acceptance would be a fabricated
+     * sample (exactly what this reward model refuses to do), so the turn is recorded
+     * as it was and the rejection is applied when it actually arrives.
+     *
+     * Only a SUCCESS carries an un-applied penalty: the escalated and failure
+     * branches of `applyReward` never read `userAccepted`, so a rejection of one of
+     * those is already fully reflected and adds nothing.
+     *
+     * A rejection CORRECTS an existing arm and never creates one — a turn we never
+     * recorded has nothing to correct.
+     *
+     * @returns True when a prior was actually moved.
+     */
+    recordUserRejection(provider, complexity, outcome, taskIntent, model) {
+        if (outcome !== 'success')
+            return false;
+        const key = this.bucketKey(complexity, taskIntent);
+        // Clamp α above zero: a Beta prior needs positive shape parameters, so a run of
+        // rejections must never make an arm numerically invalid.
+        const applyDelta = (prior) => {
+            prior.alpha = Math.max(0.1, prior.alpha - USER_REJECTION_DELTA);
+            prior.beta += USER_REJECTION_DELTA;
+        };
+        let moved = false;
+        const providerPrior = this.state.priors[key]?.[provider];
+        if (providerPrior) {
+            applyDelta(providerPrior);
+            moved = true;
+        }
+        if (model) {
+            const modelPrior = this.state.modelPriors[key]?.[model];
+            if (modelPrior) {
+                applyDelta(modelPrior);
+                moved = true;
+            }
+        }
+        if (moved)
+            this.save();
+        return moved;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Apply an EXPLICIT user verdict (`nuvira rate bad`, or the dashboard's 👎) to the
+     * arms that served the trace it is about.
+     *
+     * WHY A SEPARATE ENTRY POINT. `recordUserRejection` applies the same deferred
+     * delta for the DERIVED signal, but its attribution lives in the in-process
+     * `pendingOutcome` slot: it is gone by the time the user rates a turn from the
+     * CLI (or from the dashboard after the process ended). An explicit verdict names
+     * a TRACE, so this reads the pair and complexity the trace recorded and corrects
+     * the arm there — the same `α−δ / β+δ` a known verdict would have applied at
+     * record time.
+     *
+     * COUNTED ONCE, EVER. The trace id is remembered, so a re-run — or a verdict
+     * that follows a DERIVED rejection of the same turn — cannot move the arm twice.
+     * The marker is written even when no arm existed, because a rejection CORRECTS an
+     * existing arm and never creates one, and a second attempt must not suddenly
+     * apply a delta the first deliberately did not.
+     *
+     * Only a SUCCESS carries an un-applied penalty: the escalated and failure
+     * branches of `applyReward` never read `userAccepted`, so a rejection of one of
+     * those is already fully reflected.
+     */
+    recordExplicitVerdict(input) {
+        const noop = (reason, alreadyApplied = false) => ({
+            applied: false,
+            alreadyApplied,
+            moved: 0,
+            reason,
+        });
+        if (!input.traceId)
+            return noop('no trace id to key the correction on');
+        const done = this.state.correctedVerdicts ?? [];
+        if (done.includes(input.traceId))
+            return noop('this verdict was already applied', true);
+        if (input.outcome !== 'success') {
+            return noop('the turn was not recorded as a success — its arm never read the verdict');
+        }
+        const keys = this.correctionKeys(input.provider, input.complexity, input.taskIntent);
+        const applyDelta = (prior) => {
+            // Clamp α above zero: a Beta prior needs positive shape parameters.
+            prior.alpha = Math.max(0.1, prior.alpha - USER_REJECTION_DELTA);
+            prior.beta += USER_REJECTION_DELTA;
+        };
+        let moved = 0;
+        for (const key of keys) {
+            const providerPrior = this.state.priors[key]?.[input.provider];
+            if (providerPrior) {
+                applyDelta(providerPrior);
+                moved++;
+            }
+            if (input.model) {
+                const modelPrior = this.state.modelPriors[key]?.[input.model];
+                if (modelPrior) {
+                    applyDelta(modelPrior);
+                    moved++;
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        this.state.correctedVerdicts = [...done, input.traceId].slice(-MAX_CORRECTED_VERDICTS);
+        this.save();
+        return {
+            applied: true,
+            alreadyApplied: false,
+            moved,
+            reason: moved > 0 ? `moved ${moved} prior(s)` : 'no recorded arm for this pair yet',
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * The bucket keys whose arms could have served this turn, most precise first.
+     *
+     * The exact `intent:complexity` bucket is used when the trace carried the intent
+     * (new traces do; see `TraceRoutingSnapshot.taskIntent`). When it did not — an
+     * older trace — every bucket at the SAME complexity that already holds an entry
+     * for the provider is corrected instead, because a correction that silently
+     * no-ops is worse than one that lands on the buckets this pair could have served.
+     */
+    correctionKeys(provider, complexity, taskIntent) {
+        const keys = [];
+        if (taskIntent) {
+            const exact = this.bucketKey(complexity, taskIntent);
+            if (this.state.priors[exact]?.[provider])
+                keys.push(exact);
+        }
+        else if (this.state.priors[complexity]?.[provider]) {
+            keys.push(complexity);
+        }
+        if (keys.length === 0) {
+            for (const key of Object.keys(this.state.priors)) {
+                if ((key === complexity || key.endsWith(`:${complexity}`)) && this.state.priors[key]?.[provider]) {
+                    keys.push(key);
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        return keys;
+    }
     /**
      * Update the PER-MODEL prior for a concrete model id in the task's complexity
   

package/dist/learning/router-bandit.js.map

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package/dist/learning/routing-history.d.ts

@@ -19,6 +19,19 @@
  */
 /** Where a routing decision came from. */
 export type RoutingSource = 'explain' | 'benchmark' | 'eval' | 'chat' | 'orchestrator';
+/**
+ * The scale a recorded `score` is on.
+ *
+ * Two scales decide a walk and they are NOT interchangeable: the auto-router
+ * ranks PROVIDERS by a weighted composite, while `buildModelCandidates` ranks
+ * MODELS. Comparing one against the other is meaningless, so a row states which
+ * it used (see `RoutingHistoryEntry.score`).
+ */
+export type RoutingScoreBasis = 
+/** The auto-router's provider-level weighted composite for this task. */
+'provider'
+/** A model-level candidate score from `buildModelCandidates`. */
+ | 'model';
 /**
  * A full routing-decision snapshot — the ranked candidate list with scores and
  * the decision context, captured at decision time. Recorded for `explain`
@@ -83,8 +96,34 @@ export interface RoutingHistoryEntry {
     provider: string;
     /** Selected model within that provider */
     model: string;
-    /** Router composite score of the pick (0–1) */
-    score: number;
+    /**
+     * The score of THIS row's own pick — and ONLY this row's pick.
+     *
+     * B2-a, measured live. There are two scales in play: the auto-router's
+     * provider-level COMPOSITE (`decision.score`) and the model-level candidate
+     * score from `buildModelCandidates`. `cli/chat.ts` used to write
+     * `score: decision.score` onto EVERY row of a failover walk, so three
+     * different pairs appeared to share one number — measured:
+     * `0.43836864406779663` on gemini/`gemma-4-26b-a4b-it`,
+     * openrouter/`cohere/command-r7b-12-2024` and deepseek/`deepseek-flash`, while
+     * the provider scores `model explain` prints for that same ask are
+     * `local 0.438` / `gemini 0.438`. A reader could only conclude the models had
+     * tied — and that is exactly the wrong inference the Bundle 8 live run drew
+     * ("equal priors, so the ranking carries no information"), when the
+     * model-level scores were in fact ORDERED at 0.9206 / 0.77 / 0.597148.
+     *
+     * So a row carries its own pick's score or nothing: an audit record may not
+     * borrow a number from a different pair, and may not invent one for an
+     * ordering placeholder. `scoreBasis` names the scale, because the two scales
+     * are not comparable and a column that silently mixes them is the same defect
+     * wearing a different hat.
+     */
+    score?: number;
+    /**
+     * Which scale `score` is on. Present whenever `score` is meant to be read or
+     * compared; absent alongside an absent `score`.
+     */
+    scoreBasis?: RoutingScoreBasis;
     /**
      * Full decision snapshot (ranked candidates + context) — recorded for
      * `explain` decisions to power `model explain --since` (P3-M3.3). Optional:

package/dist/learning/routing-history.d.ts.map

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package/dist/learning/run-trace.d.ts

@@ -85,6 +85,11 @@ export interface RunTraceSnapshot {
     mutations: number;
     /** The distinct files changed. */
     paths: string[];
+    /**
+     * Decisions the run took ON THE USER'S BEHALF because nobody was reachable,
+     * one line each (deduped, oldest first). Empty on a turn the user drove.
+     */
+    assumptions: string[];
 }
 /**
  * The run's own behaviour, as data.
@@ -96,6 +101,7 @@ export interface RunTraceSnapshot {
  */
 export declare class RunTrace {
     private asks;
+    private assumptions;
     private refusals;
     private failures;
     private mutations;
@@ -105,6 +111,21 @@ export declare class RunTrace {
     priorAnswer(question: string): string | undefined;
     /** Record that the agent asked something, and whether the user saw it. */
     recordAsk(question: string, shown: boolean, answer?: string): void;
+    /**
+     * Record a decision taken on the user's behalf because nobody was reachable.
+     *
+     * Deliberately NOT `recordAsk`: an assumption is not a question the user
+     * answered, and filing it as one is what let a silent default read as the
+     * user's own choice on every surface downstream.
+     */
+    recordAssumption(question: string, assumed: string): void;
+    /** How many decisions the run took on the user's behalf. */
+    assumptionCount(): number;
+    /**
+     * The assumptions as disclosure lines, deduped and oldest first — the exact
+     * text a surface prints so "what did it decide for me?" is answerable.
+     */
+    assumptionLines(): string[];
     /** Prior refusals of the SAME tool for the SAME reason. */
     priorRefusalMatches(tool: string, detail: string): number;
     recordRefusal(tool: string, reason: string, detail: string): void;

package/dist/learning/run-trace.d.ts.map

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package/dist/learning/run-trace.js

@@ -125,6 +125,7 @@ export const MAX_TRACE_ENTRIES = 60;
  */
 export class RunTrace {
     asks = [];
+    assumptions = [];
     refusals = [];
     failures = [];
     mutations = [];
@@ -150,6 +151,42 @@ export class RunTrace {
         if (this.asks.length > MAX_TRACE_ENTRIES)
             this.asks.shift();
     }
+    /**
+     * Record a decision taken on the user's behalf because nobody was reachable.
+     *
+     * Deliberately NOT `recordAsk`: an assumption is not a question the user
+     * answered, and filing it as one is what let a silent default read as the
+     * user's own choice on every surface downstream.
+     */
+    recordAssumption(question, assumed) {
+        this.assumptions.push({
+            question: String(question ?? ''),
+            assumed: String(assumed ?? ''),
+            at: Date.now(),
+        });
+        if (this.assumptions.length > MAX_TRACE_ENTRIES)
+            this.assumptions.shift();
+    }
+    /** How many decisions the run took on the user's behalf. */
+    assumptionCount() {
+        return this.assumptions.length;
+    }
+    /**
+     * The assumptions as disclosure lines, deduped and oldest first — the exact
+     * text a surface prints so "what did it decide for me?" is answerable.
+     */
+    assumptionLines() {
+        const lines = [];
+        const seen = new Set();
+        for (const a of this.assumptions) {
+            const line = `assumed "${a.assumed}" for: ${a.question}`;
+            if (seen.has(line))
+                continue;
+            seen.add(line);
+            lines.push(line);
+        }
+        return lines;
+    }
     /** Prior refusals of the SAME tool for the SAME reason. */
     priorRefusalMatches(tool, detail) {
         const signature = normalize(detail).slice(0, 200);
@@ -262,6 +299,7 @@ export class RunTrace {
             refusals: this.refusals.length,
             mutations: this.mutations.length,
             paths: this.distinctMutationPaths(),
+            assumptions: this.assumptionLines(),
         };
     }
     /** Distinct questions, each with how many times it was asked and its answer. */

package/dist/learning/run-trace.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/learning/seeded-benchmark.d.ts

@@ -79,6 +79,12 @@ export interface SeededTaskScore {
     /** Changed files other than the one the fix belongs in. */
     collateral: string[];
     targetOnly: boolean;
+    /**
+     * The run's OWN success flag. Recorded so a CLAIM that did not hold can be
+     * counted: `claimedSuccess && !fixed` is a false success, and no benchmark that
+     * only reads the checks can see one.
+     */
+    claimedSuccess: boolean;
     checks: SeededCheckOutcome[];
     /** 0-1. `null` when the seed did not verify, because nothing was measured. */
     composite: number | null;
@@ -92,6 +98,14 @@ export interface SeededRunSummary {
     detected: number;
     fixed: number;
     cleanFix: number;
+    /** How many runs CLAIMED success — the denominator for the false-success rate. */
+    claimedSuccess: number;
+    /** Claimed success while the checks still failed. The metric the DoD names. */
+    falseSuccess: number;
+    /** falseSuccess / claimedSuccess, or `null` when nothing claimed success. */
+    falseSuccessRate: number | null;
+    /** Median time from task start to a passing check, over the FIXED tasks (ms), or null. */
+    timeToGreenMs: number | null;
     /** Mean composite over the tasks that were actually scored, or null. */
     composite: number | null;
 }