@yoda.digital/iris-gateway 1.13.3

package/dist/intelligence/health/trend-detector.js

@@ -0,0 +1,160 @@
+/**
+ * Health trend detector.
+ * Runs linear regression on heartbeat_log data to detect:
+ *  - Degrading components (latency trending up, status trending down)
+ *  - Critical trajectory (predicted threshold breach within N hours)
+ *
+ * Pure math — no AI calls.
+ */
+export class TrendDetector {
+    logger;
+    db;
+    constructor(vaultDb, logger) {
+        this.logger = logger;
+        this.db = vaultDb.raw();
+    }
+    /**
+     * Analyze trends for all components.
+     * Returns trend results for components that have enough data.
+     */
+    analyzeAll(windowHours = 6, thresholdLatencyMs = 5000) {
+        const components = this.getActiveComponents(windowHours);
+        const results = [];
+        for (const component of components) {
+            const result = this.analyzeComponent(component, windowHours, thresholdLatencyMs);
+            if (result)
+                results.push(result);
+        }
+        return results;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Analyze latency trend for a single component.
+     */
+    analyzeComponent(component, windowHours = 6, thresholdMs = 5000) {
+        const cutoff = Date.now() - windowHours * 3_600_000;
+        const rows = this.db.prepare(`SELECT latency_ms, checked_at FROM heartbeat_log
+       WHERE component = ? AND checked_at > ?
+       ORDER BY checked_at ASC`).all(component, cutoff);
+        if (rows.length < 5)
+            return null; // Need minimum 5 data points
+        const points = rows.map((r) => ({
+            value: r.latency_ms,
+            timestamp: r.checked_at,
+        }));
+        const regression = this.linearRegression(points);
+        const trend = this.classifyTrend(regression.slope, points);
+        // Predict when threshold will be breached (if degrading)
+        let predictedThresholdIn = null;
+        if (regression.slope > 0 && trend !== "stable" && trend !== "improving") {
+            const currentValue = regression.intercept + regression.slope * Date.now();
+            if (currentValue < thresholdMs) {
+                const msUntilThreshold = (thresholdMs - currentValue) / regression.slope;
+                predictedThresholdIn = Math.max(0, msUntilThreshold);
+            }
+        }
+        const confidence = Math.min(0.5 + points.length * 0.02, 0.9);
+        return {
+            component,
+            metric: "latency_ms",
+            trend,
+            slope: regression.slope,
+            predictedThresholdIn,
+            sampleCount: points.length,
+            confidence,
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Get error rate trend for a component.
+     */
+    analyzeErrorRate(component, windowHours = 6) {
+        const cutoff = Date.now() - windowHours * 3_600_000;
+        // Bucket into 30-minute windows
+        const BUCKET_MS = 1_800_000;
+        const rows = this.db.prepare(`SELECT
+        (checked_at / ${BUCKET_MS}) * ${BUCKET_MS} as bucket,
+        COUNT(*) as total,
+        SUM(CASE WHEN status != 'healthy' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as errors
+       FROM heartbeat_log
+       WHERE component = ? AND checked_at > ?
+       GROUP BY bucket
+       ORDER BY bucket ASC`).all(component, cutoff);
+        if (rows.length < 3)
+            return null;
+        const points = rows.map((r) => ({
+            value: r.total > 0 ? r.errors / r.total : 0,
+            timestamp: r.bucket,
+        }));
+        const regression = this.linearRegression(points);
+        const trend = this.classifyTrend(regression.slope * 1000, points); // Scale up for sensitivity
+        return {
+            component,
+            metric: "error_rate",
+            trend,
+            slope: regression.slope,
+            predictedThresholdIn: null,
+            sampleCount: rows.length,
+            confidence: Math.min(0.4 + rows.length * 0.05, 0.85),
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Simple linear regression: y = mx + b
+     * Returns slope (m) and intercept (b).
+     */
+    linearRegression(points) {
+        const n = points.length;
+        if (n < 2)
+            return { slope: 0, intercept: 0, r2: 0 };
+        // Normalize timestamps to avoid floating point issues
+        const t0 = points[0].timestamp;
+        const xs = points.map((p) => (p.timestamp - t0) / 1000); // seconds from start
+        const ys = points.map((p) => p.value);
+        let sumX = 0, sumY = 0, sumXY = 0, sumX2 = 0, sumY2 = 0;
+        for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+            sumX += xs[i];
+            sumY += ys[i];
+            sumXY += xs[i] * ys[i];
+            sumX2 += xs[i] * xs[i];
+            sumY2 += ys[i] * ys[i];
+        }
+        const denom = n * sumX2 - sumX * sumX;
+        if (denom === 0)
+            return { slope: 0, intercept: sumY / n, r2: 0 };
+        const slope = (n * sumXY - sumX * sumY) / denom;
+        const intercept = (sumY - slope * sumX) / n;
+        // R² (coefficient of determination)
+        const meanY = sumY / n;
+        let ssTot = 0, ssRes = 0;
+        for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+            ssTot += (ys[i] - meanY) ** 2;
+            ssRes += (ys[i] - (slope * xs[i] + intercept)) ** 2;
+        }
+        const r2 = ssTot === 0 ? 0 : 1 - ssRes / ssTot;
+        // Convert slope back to per-millisecond for callers
+        return { slope: slope / 1000, intercept, r2 };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Classify trend based on slope magnitude and direction.
+     */
+    classifyTrend(slope, points) {
+        // Calculate mean value to determine relative significance
+        const mean = points.reduce((s, p) => s + p.value, 0) / points.length;
+        const relativeSlopePerHour = mean > 0 ? (slope * 3_600_000) / mean : 0;
+        // >10% per hour = significant change
+        if (relativeSlopePerHour > 0.1)
+            return "degrading";
+        if (relativeSlopePerHour > 0.3)
+            return "critical_trajectory";
+        if (relativeSlopePerHour < -0.1)
+            return "improving";
+        return "stable";
+    }
+    /**
+     * Get list of components that have recent heartbeat data.
+     */
+    getActiveComponents(windowHours) {
+        const cutoff = Date.now() - windowHours * 3_600_000;
+        const rows = this.db.prepare("SELECT DISTINCT component FROM heartbeat_log WHERE checked_at > ?").all(cutoff);
+        return rows.map((r) => r.component);
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=trend-detector.js.map

package/dist/intelligence/health/trend-detector.js.map

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package/dist/intelligence/inference/engine.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+import type { IntelligenceStore } from "../store.js";
+import type { IntelligenceBus } from "../bus.js";
+import type { DerivedSignal } from "../types.js";
+import type { ProfileSignal } from "../../onboarding/types.js";
+import type { SignalStore } from "../../onboarding/signals.js";
+import type { Logger } from "../../logging/logger.js";
+export interface InferenceRule {
+    readonly id: string;
+    readonly inputSignals: string[];
+    readonly minSamples: number;
+    readonly cooldownMs: number;
+    evaluate(raw: ProfileSignal[], existing: DerivedSignal | null): {
+        value: string;
+        confidence: number;
+        evidence: string;
+    } | null;
+}
+export declare class InferenceEngine {
+    private readonly intelligenceStore;
+    private readonly signalStore;
+    private readonly bus;
+    private readonly rules;
+    private readonly logger;
+    constructor(intelligenceStore: IntelligenceStore, signalStore: SignalStore, bus: IntelligenceBus, rules: InferenceRule[], logger: Logger);
+    /**
+     * Run all inference rules for a given sender.
+     * Called after enricher.enrich() in the message pipeline.
+     * Returns newly produced/updated derived signals.
+     */
+    evaluate(senderId: string, channelId: string): Promise<DerivedSignal[]>;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=engine.d.ts.map

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package/dist/intelligence/inference/engine.js

@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+import { metrics } from "../../gateway/metrics.js";
+export class InferenceEngine {
+    intelligenceStore;
+    signalStore;
+    bus;
+    rules;
+    logger;
+    constructor(intelligenceStore, signalStore, bus, rules, logger) {
+        this.intelligenceStore = intelligenceStore;
+        this.signalStore = signalStore;
+        this.bus = bus;
+        this.rules = rules;
+        this.logger = logger;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Run all inference rules for a given sender.
+     * Called after enricher.enrich() in the message pipeline.
+     * Returns newly produced/updated derived signals.
+     */
+    async evaluate(senderId, channelId) {
+        const _pipelineStart = Date.now();
+        const produced = [];
+        const now = Date.now();
+        for (const rule of this.rules) {
+            try {
+                // Check cooldown
+                const lastRun = this.intelligenceStore.getLastInferenceRun(rule.id, senderId);
+                if (lastRun && now - lastRun < rule.cooldownMs) {
+                    continue;
+                }
+                // Load raw signals for this rule
+                const rawSignals = this.signalStore.getSignals(senderId, channelId);
+                const relevant = rawSignals.filter((s) => rule.inputSignals.includes(s.signalType));
+                if (relevant.length < rule.minSamples) {
+                    this.intelligenceStore.logInference({
+                        ruleId: rule.id,
+                        senderId,
+                        result: "skipped",
+                        details: JSON.stringify({ reason: "insufficient_samples", count: relevant.length, required: rule.minSamples }),
+                        executedAt: now,
+                    });
+                    continue;
+                }
+                // Get existing derived signal for this rule
+                const existing = this.intelligenceStore.getDerivedSignals(senderId, rule.id).at(0) ?? null;
+                // Run the rule
+                const result = rule.evaluate(relevant, existing);
+                if (!result) {
+                    this.intelligenceStore.logInference({
+                        ruleId: rule.id,
+                        senderId,
+                        result: "skipped",
+                        details: null,
+                        executedAt: now,
+                    });
+                    continue;
+                }
+                // Check if value changed
+                if (existing && existing.value === result.value && Math.abs(existing.confidence - result.confidence) < 0.05) {
+                    this.intelligenceStore.logInference({
+                        ruleId: rule.id,
+                        senderId,
+                        result: "unchanged",
+                        details: null,
+                        executedAt: now,
+                    });
+                    continue;
+                }
+                // Write derived signal
+                const signal = this.intelligenceStore.writeDerivedSignal({
+                    senderId,
+                    channelId,
+                    signalType: rule.id,
+                    value: result.value,
+                    confidence: result.confidence,
+                    evidence: result.evidence,
+                });
+                produced.push(signal);
+                this.intelligenceStore.logInference({
+                    ruleId: rule.id,
+                    senderId,
+                    result: "produced",
+                    details: JSON.stringify({ value: result.value, confidence: result.confidence }),
+                    executedAt: now,
+                });
+                // Emit to bus
+                this.bus.emit({ type: "signal_derived", senderId, signal });
+                this.logger.info({ ruleId: rule.id, senderId, value: result.value, confidence: result.confidence }, "Derived signal produced");
+            }
+            catch (err) {
+                this.logger.error({ err, ruleId: rule.id, senderId }, "Inference rule failed");
+            }
+        }
+        metrics.intelligencePipelineLatency.observe({ stage: 'inference' }, (Date.now() - _pipelineStart) / 1000);
+        return produced;
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=engine.js.map

package/dist/intelligence/inference/engine.js.map

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package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/engagement-trend.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+import type { InferenceRule } from "../engine.js";
+/**
+ * Detects engagement trend by comparing message frequency
+ * in current 7-day window vs previous 7-day window.
+ *
+ * >20% increase = rising, >20% decrease = declining, else stable.
+ */
+export declare const engagementTrendRule: InferenceRule;
+//# sourceMappingURL=engagement-trend.d.ts.map

package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/engagement-trend.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/engagement-trend.js

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+/**
+ * Detects engagement trend by comparing message frequency
+ * in current 7-day window vs previous 7-day window.
+ *
+ * >20% increase = rising, >20% decrease = declining, else stable.
+ */
+export const engagementTrendRule = {
+    id: "engagement_trend",
+    inputSignals: ["active_hour"], // We use timestamps from any signal as activity proxy
+    minSamples: 3,
+    cooldownMs: 3_600_000, // 1 hour
+    evaluate(raw, _existing) {
+        const now = Date.now();
+        const oneWeekAgo = now - 7 * 86_400_000;
+        const twoWeeksAgo = now - 14 * 86_400_000;
+        // Count messages in each window using signal timestamps
+        const currentWeek = raw.filter((s) => s.observedAt > oneWeekAgo).length;
+        const previousWeek = raw.filter((s) => s.observedAt > twoWeeksAgo && s.observedAt <= oneWeekAgo).length;
+        // Need at least some data in both windows
+        if (currentWeek + previousWeek < 3)
+            return null;
+        // Handle edge case: no previous week data
+        if (previousWeek === 0) {
+            return {
+                value: currentWeek > 0 ? "rising" : "stable",
+                confidence: 0.5,
+                evidence: JSON.stringify({ currentWeek, previousWeek, changePercent: null }),
+            };
+        }
+        const changePercent = ((currentWeek - previousWeek) / previousWeek) * 100;
+        let trend;
+        if (changePercent > 20)
+            trend = "rising";
+        else if (changePercent < -20)
+            trend = "declining";
+        else
+            trend = "stable";
+        const confidence = Math.min(0.5 + (currentWeek + previousWeek) * 0.02, 0.85);
+        return {
+            value: trend,
+            confidence,
+            evidence: JSON.stringify({
+                currentWeek,
+                previousWeek,
+                changePercent: Math.round(changePercent),
+            }),
+        };
+    },
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=engagement-trend.js.map

package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/engagement-trend.js.map

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package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/index.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+import type { InferenceRule } from "../engine.js";
+export declare const builtinInferenceRules: InferenceRule[];
+//# sourceMappingURL=index.d.ts.map

package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/index.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/index.js

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+import { timezoneFromHoursRule } from "./timezone-from-hours.js";
+import { languageStabilityRule } from "./language-stability.js";
+import { engagementTrendRule } from "./engagement-trend.js";
+import { responseCadenceRule } from "./response-cadence.js";
+import { sessionPatternRule } from "./session-pattern.js";
+export const builtinInferenceRules = [
+    timezoneFromHoursRule,
+    languageStabilityRule,
+    engagementTrendRule,
+    responseCadenceRule,
+    sessionPatternRule,
+];
+//# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/index.js.map

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package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/language-stability.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+import type { InferenceRule } from "../engine.js";
+/**
+ * Analyzes language signal stability.
+ * - All same → stable:{lang} at 0.95 (can stop re-detecting)
+ * - Alternating 2 → bilingual:{lang1},{lang2} at 0.8
+ * - Chaotic → unstable at 0.3
+ */
+export declare const languageStabilityRule: InferenceRule;
+//# sourceMappingURL=language-stability.d.ts.map

package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/language-stability.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/language-stability.js

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+/**
+ * Analyzes language signal stability.
+ * - All same → stable:{lang} at 0.95 (can stop re-detecting)
+ * - Alternating 2 → bilingual:{lang1},{lang2} at 0.8
+ * - Chaotic → unstable at 0.3
+ */
+export const languageStabilityRule = {
+    id: "language_stability",
+    inputSignals: ["language"],
+    minSamples: 5,
+    cooldownMs: 1_800_000, // 30 minutes
+    evaluate(raw, _existing) {
+        const langSignals = raw
+            .filter((s) => s.signalType === "language")
+            .sort((a, b) => b.observedAt - a.observedAt)
+            .slice(0, 20); // Last 20 signals
+        if (langSignals.length < 5)
+            return null;
+        const langs = langSignals.map((s) => s.value);
+        const unique = [...new Set(langs)];
+        if (unique.length === 1) {
+            return {
+                value: `stable:${unique[0]}`,
+                confidence: 0.95,
+                evidence: JSON.stringify({ pattern: "monolingual", lang: unique[0], sampleCount: langs.length }),
+            };
+        }
+        if (unique.length === 2) {
+            // Count occurrences
+            const counts = new Map();
+            for (const l of langs)
+                counts.set(l, (counts.get(l) ?? 0) + 1);
+            const sorted = [...counts.entries()].sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]);
+            // Both must appear at least 20% of the time to count as bilingual
+            const minRatio = sorted[1][1] / langs.length;
+            if (minRatio >= 0.2) {
+                return {
+                    value: `bilingual:${sorted[0][0]},${sorted[1][0]}`,
+                    confidence: 0.8,
+                    evidence: JSON.stringify({
+                        pattern: "bilingual",
+                        langs: { [sorted[0][0]]: sorted[0][1], [sorted[1][0]]: sorted[1][1] },
+                        sampleCount: langs.length,
+                    }),
+                };
+            }
+            // One language dominates — treat as stable with the dominant one
+            return {
+                value: `stable:${sorted[0][0]}`,
+                confidence: 0.75,
+                evidence: JSON.stringify({
+                    pattern: "dominant",
+                    primary: sorted[0][0],
+                    secondary: sorted[1][0],
+                    ratio: sorted[0][1] / langs.length,
+                    sampleCount: langs.length,
+                }),
+            };
+        }
+        // 3+ languages — unstable
+        return {
+            value: "unstable",
+            confidence: 0.3,
+            evidence: JSON.stringify({ pattern: "multilingual", unique: unique.length, sampleCount: langs.length }),
+        };
+    },
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=language-stability.js.map

package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/language-stability.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/response-cadence.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+import type { InferenceRule } from "../engine.js";
+/**
+ * Detects user's typical response cadence.
+ * Measures median time between consecutive messages.
+ *
+ * <60s = realtime, <30min = active, <4h = async, >4h = slow
+ */
+export declare const responseCadenceRule: InferenceRule;
+//# sourceMappingURL=response-cadence.d.ts.map

package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/response-cadence.d.ts.map

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package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/response-cadence.js

@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+/**
+ * Detects user's typical response cadence.
+ * Measures median time between consecutive messages.
+ *
+ * <60s = realtime, <30min = active, <4h = async, >4h = slow
+ */
+export const responseCadenceRule = {
+    id: "response_cadence",
+    inputSignals: ["active_hour"],
+    minSamples: 5,
+    cooldownMs: 3_600_000, // 1 hour
+    evaluate(raw, _existing) {
+        // Get timestamps sorted chronologically
+        const timestamps = raw
+            .map((s) => s.observedAt)
+            .sort((a, b) => a - b);
+        if (timestamps.length < 5)
+            return null;
+        // Calculate inter-message gaps (only gaps < 24h — ignore session breaks)
+        const gaps = [];
+        for (let i = 1; i < timestamps.length; i++) {
+            const gap = timestamps[i] - timestamps[i - 1];
+            if (gap > 0 && gap < 86_400_000) { // < 24h
+                gaps.push(gap);
+            }
+        }
+        if (gaps.length < 3)
+            return null;
+        // Median gap
+        const sorted = [...gaps].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+        const median = sorted[Math.floor(sorted.length / 2)];
+        let cadence;
+        if (median < 60_000)
+            cadence = "realtime";
+        else if (median < 1_800_000)
+            cadence = "active";
+        else if (median < 14_400_000)
+            cadence = "async";
+        else
+            cadence = "slow";
+        const confidence = Math.min(0.5 + gaps.length * 0.03, 0.85);
+        return {
+            value: cadence,
+            confidence,
+            evidence: JSON.stringify({
+                medianGapMs: median,
+                sampleGaps: gaps.length,
+                medianMinutes: Math.round(median / 60_000),
+            }),
+        };
+    },
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=response-cadence.js.map

package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/response-cadence.js.map

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package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/session-pattern.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+import type { InferenceRule } from "../engine.js";
+/**
+ * Detects user's session pattern.
+ * Groups messages into sessions (gap > 30min = new session).
+ *
+ * Short bursts (avg 1-5 msgs) vs long sessions (avg 10+ msgs).
+ */
+export declare const sessionPatternRule: InferenceRule;
+//# sourceMappingURL=session-pattern.d.ts.map

package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/session-pattern.d.ts.map

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package/dist/intelligence/inference/rules/session-pattern.js

@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+/**
+ * Detects user's session pattern.
+ * Groups messages into sessions (gap > 30min = new session).
+ *
+ * Short bursts (avg 1-5 msgs) vs long sessions (avg 10+ msgs).
+ */
+export const sessionPatternRule = {
+    id: "session_pattern",
+    inputSignals: ["active_hour"],
+    minSamples: 10,
+    cooldownMs: 7_200_000, // 2 hours
+    evaluate(raw, _existing) {
+        const SESSION_GAP_MS = 1_800_000; // 30 minutes
+        const timestamps = raw
+            .map((s) => s.observedAt)
+            .sort((a, b) => a - b);
+        if (timestamps.length < 10)
+            return null;
+        // Group into sessions
+        const sessions = [[timestamps[0]]];
+        for (let i = 1; i < timestamps.length; i++) {
+            const gap = timestamps[i] - timestamps[i - 1];
+            if (gap > SESSION_GAP_MS) {
+                sessions.push([timestamps[i]]);
+            }
+            else {
+                sessions[sessions.length - 1].push(timestamps[i]);
+            }
+        }
+        if (sessions.length < 3)
+            return null;
+        const sessionLengths = sessions.map((s) => s.length);
+        const avgLength = sessionLengths.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / sessionLengths.length;
+        let pattern;
+        if (avgLength <= 3)
+            pattern = "burst";
+        else if (avgLength <= 8)
+            pattern = "moderate";
+        else
+            pattern = "extended";
+        const confidence = Math.min(0.5 + sessions.length * 0.03, 0.85);
+        return {
+            value: pattern,
+            confidence,
+            evidence: JSON.stringify({
+                sessionCount: sessions.length,
+                avgMessagesPerSession: Math.round(avgLength * 10) / 10,
+                totalMessages: timestamps.length,
+            }),
+        };
+    },
+};
+//# sourceMappingURL=session-pattern.js.map