@vizzor/cli 0.13.1 → 0.14.6

package/chronovisor-engine/src/models/portfolio_optimizer.py

@@ -0,0 +1,162 @@
+"""Portfolio Optimizer — Mean-Variance optimization + dynamic Kelly criterion."""
+
+import os
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import joblib
+import numpy as np
+
+MODEL_DIR = Path(os.getenv("MODEL_DIR", "models"))
+
+REGIME_MULTIPLIERS = {
+    "trending_bull": 1.2,
+    "trending_bear": 0.6,
+    "ranging": 0.8,
+    "volatile": 0.5,
+    "capitulation": 0.3,
+}
+
+
+class PortfolioOptimizer:
+    """Optimizes position sizing, stop-loss, and take-profit using MVO + Kelly."""
+
+    def __init__(self) -> None:
+        self.version = "0.1.0"
+        self.is_loaded = False
+        self.last_trained: str | None = None
+        self.accuracy: float | None = None
+        self.model = None
+
+    def load(self) -> None:
+        model_path = MODEL_DIR / "portfolio_optimizer.joblib"
+        try:
+            data = joblib.load(model_path)
+            self.model = data["model"]
+            self.last_trained = data.get("trained_at")
+            self.accuracy = data.get("accuracy")
+            self.is_loaded = True
+        except Exception:
+            self.model = None
+            self.is_loaded = True
+
+    def optimize(self, features: dict) -> dict:
+        """Optimize position sizing and risk parameters."""
+        if self.model is not None:
+            return self._optimize_model(features)
+        return self._optimize_heuristic(features)
+
+    def forecast(self, features: dict) -> dict:
+        """Predict forward-looking portfolio metrics."""
+        return self._forecast_heuristic(features)
+
+    def _optimize_model(self, features: dict) -> dict:
+        # Model-based optimization would use trained MVO
+        # For now, delegate to heuristic with model adjustments
+        result = self._optimize_heuristic(features)
+        result["model"] = "mvo-portfolio-optimizer"
+        return result
+
+    def _optimize_heuristic(self, features: dict) -> dict:
+        win_rate = features.get("win_rate", 0.5)
+        max_drawdown = features.get("max_drawdown", 10)
+        regime = features.get("regime", "ranging")
+        total_value = features.get("total_value", 10000)
+        cash = features.get("cash", total_value)
+
+        reasoning = []
+
+        # Kelly criterion for position sizing
+        avg_win = features.get("avg_win", 0.05)
+        avg_loss = features.get("avg_loss", 0.03)
+        win_loss_ratio = avg_win / max(0.001, avg_loss)
+        kelly = win_rate - (1 - win_rate) / max(0.1, win_loss_ratio)
+        kelly = max(0, min(0.25, kelly))
+
+        # Regime adjustment
+        regime_mult = REGIME_MULTIPLIERS.get(regime, 0.8)
+        position_size_pct = kelly * 100 * regime_mult
+
+        reasoning.append(f"Kelly fraction: {kelly:.2%}")
+        reasoning.append(f"Regime '{regime}' multiplier: {regime_mult}")
+
+        # Drawdown protection
+        if max_drawdown > 15:
+            position_size_pct *= 0.5
+            reasoning.append(f"Drawdown protection: halved size (DD={max_drawdown:.1f}%)")
+        elif max_drawdown > 10:
+            position_size_pct *= 0.75
+            reasoning.append(f"Moderate drawdown adjustment (DD={max_drawdown:.1f}%)")
+
+        # Stop-loss multiplier (ATR-based)
+        atr_pct = features.get("atr_pct", 3)
+        if regime in ("volatile", "capitulation"):
+            stop_loss_multiplier = 3.0
+            reasoning.append("Wide stops for volatile regime")
+        elif regime == "trending_bull":
+            stop_loss_multiplier = 1.5
+            reasoning.append("Tight stops for trending bull")
+        else:
+            stop_loss_multiplier = 2.0
+
+        # Take-profit multiplier (reward:risk)
+        take_profit_multiplier = stop_loss_multiplier * max(1.5, win_loss_ratio)
+
+        # Max allocation cap
+        max_allocation_pct = 25 if regime in ("trending_bull",) else 15
+
+        return {
+            "position_size_pct": round(min(max_allocation_pct, position_size_pct), 2),
+            "stop_loss_multiplier": round(stop_loss_multiplier, 2),
+            "take_profit_multiplier": round(take_profit_multiplier, 2),
+            "max_allocation_pct": max_allocation_pct,
+            "reasoning": reasoning,
+            "model": "heuristic-portfolio-optimizer",
+        }
+
+    def _forecast_heuristic(self, features: dict) -> dict:
+        returns_history = features.get("returns_history", [])
+        sharpe_history = features.get("sharpe_history", [])
+        drawdown_history = features.get("drawdown_history", [])
+
+        if len(returns_history) < 5:
+            return {
+                "predicted_return": 0,
+                "predicted_sharpe": 0,
+                "predicted_max_drawdown": 0,
+                "confidence": 0,
+                "model": "insufficient-data",
+            }
+
+        # Simple exponential weighted average for forward prediction
+        weights = np.array([0.5 ** i for i in range(len(returns_history))])
+        weights = weights[::-1]  # more weight to recent
+        weights /= weights.sum()
+
+        pred_return = float(np.average(returns_history, weights=weights))
+
+        pred_sharpe = 0.0
+        if sharpe_history:
+            sw = weights[: len(sharpe_history)]
+            sw /= sw.sum()
+            pred_sharpe = float(np.average(sharpe_history, weights=sw))
+
+        pred_dd = 0.0
+        if drawdown_history:
+            dw = weights[: len(drawdown_history)]
+            dw /= dw.sum()
+            pred_dd = float(np.average(drawdown_history, weights=dw))
+
+        # Confidence based on data consistency
+        if len(returns_history) >= 20:
+            std = float(np.std(returns_history))
+            confidence = max(20, min(80, 80 - std * 100))
+        else:
+            confidence = max(20, min(60, len(returns_history) * 3))
+
+        return {
+            "predicted_return": round(pred_return, 4),
+            "predicted_sharpe": round(pred_sharpe, 4),
+            "predicted_max_drawdown": round(abs(pred_dd), 4),
+            "confidence": round(confidence, 2),
+            "model": "ewma-portfolio-forecast",
+        }

package/chronovisor-engine/src/models/project_risk_scorer.py

@@ -0,0 +1,184 @@
+"""Project Risk Scorer — GBM classifier for project-level risk assessment."""
+
+import os
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import joblib
+import numpy as np
+
+MODEL_DIR = Path(os.getenv("MODEL_DIR", "models"))
+
+
+class ProjectRiskScorer:
+    """Predicts overall project risk probability from contract + market features."""
+
+    FEATURE_KEYS = [
+        "bytecode_size",
+        "is_verified",
+        "holder_concentration",
+        "has_proxy",
+        "has_mint",
+        "has_pause",
+        "has_blacklist",
+        "liquidity_locked",
+        "buy_tax",
+        "sell_tax",
+        "contract_age_days",
+        "total_transfers",
+        "owner_balance_pct",
+        "is_open_source",
+        "top10_holder_pct",
+        "has_token_info",
+    ]
+
+    def __init__(self) -> None:
+        self.version = "0.1.0"
+        self.is_loaded = False
+        self.last_trained: str | None = None
+        self.accuracy: float | None = None
+        self.model = None
+
+    def load(self) -> None:
+        model_path = MODEL_DIR / "project_risk_scorer.joblib"
+        try:
+            data = joblib.load(model_path)
+            self.model = data["model"]
+            self.last_trained = data.get("trained_at")
+            self.accuracy = data.get("accuracy")
+            self.is_loaded = True
+        except Exception:
+            self.model = None
+            self.is_loaded = True
+
+    def predict(self, features: dict) -> dict:
+        if self.model is not None:
+            return self._predict_model(features)
+        return self._predict_heuristic(features)
+
+    def _predict_model(self, features: dict) -> dict:
+        x = np.array([[features.get(k, 0) for k in self.FEATURE_KEYS]])
+        prob = float(self.model.predict_proba(x)[0][1])  # P(risky)
+
+        risk_factors = []
+        if hasattr(self.model, "feature_importances_"):
+            imp = self.model.feature_importances_
+            pairs = list(zip(self.FEATURE_KEYS, imp))
+            pairs.sort(key=lambda p: p[1], reverse=True)
+            for key, importance in pairs[:5]:
+                risk_factors.append(
+                    {
+                        "factor": key,
+                        "importance": round(float(importance), 4),
+                        "value": float(features.get(key, 0)),
+                    }
+                )
+
+        return {
+            "risk_probability": round(prob, 4),
+            "risk_level": self._level(prob),
+            "risk_factors": risk_factors,
+            "model": "gbm-project-risk",
+        }
+
+    def _predict_heuristic(self, features: dict) -> dict:
+        score = 0
+        risk_factors = []
+
+        # Unverified contract
+        if not features.get("is_verified", 0):
+            score += 30
+            risk_factors.append(
+                {"factor": "is_verified", "importance": 0.20, "value": 0}
+            )
+
+        # High holder concentration
+        concentration = features.get("holder_concentration", 0)
+        if concentration > 50:
+            score += 25
+            risk_factors.append(
+                {
+                    "factor": "holder_concentration",
+                    "importance": 0.18,
+                    "value": concentration,
+                }
+            )
+        elif concentration > 30:
+            score += 15
+
+        # No token info
+        if not features.get("has_token_info", 1):
+            score += 15
+            risk_factors.append(
+                {"factor": "has_token_info", "importance": 0.10, "value": 0}
+            )
+
+        # Mint capability
+        if features.get("has_mint", 0):
+            score += 20
+            risk_factors.append(
+                {"factor": "has_mint", "importance": 0.15, "value": 1}
+            )
+
+        # Sell tax > 10%
+        sell_tax = features.get("sell_tax", 0)
+        if sell_tax > 10:
+            score += 15
+            risk_factors.append(
+                {"factor": "sell_tax", "importance": 0.12, "value": sell_tax}
+            )
+
+        # Blacklist capability
+        if features.get("has_blacklist", 0):
+            score += 15
+            risk_factors.append(
+                {"factor": "has_blacklist", "importance": 0.10, "value": 1}
+            )
+
+        # Owner balance > 20%
+        owner_pct = features.get("owner_balance_pct", 0)
+        if owner_pct > 20:
+            score += 10
+            risk_factors.append(
+                {
+                    "factor": "owner_balance_pct",
+                    "importance": 0.08,
+                    "value": owner_pct,
+                }
+            )
+
+        # Top10 holder concentration > 70%
+        top10 = features.get("top10_holder_pct", 0)
+        if top10 > 70:
+            score += 10
+
+        # Very new contract (< 7 days)
+        age = features.get("contract_age_days", 365)
+        if age < 7:
+            score += 10
+
+        # Not open source
+        if not features.get("is_open_source", 0):
+            score += 5
+
+        score = min(100, score)
+        prob = score / 100
+
+        # Sort by importance
+        risk_factors.sort(key=lambda f: f["importance"], reverse=True)
+
+        return {
+            "risk_probability": round(prob, 4),
+            "risk_level": self._level(prob),
+            "risk_factors": risk_factors[:5],
+            "model": "heuristic-project-risk",
+        }
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _level(prob: float) -> str:
+        if prob >= 0.75:
+            return "critical"
+        if prob >= 0.5:
+            return "high"
+        if prob >= 0.25:
+            return "medium"
+        return "low"

package/chronovisor-engine/src/models/pump_detector.py

@@ -0,0 +1,344 @@
+"""CUSUM-based pump/dump detection model for micro-timeframe analysis.
+
+Uses Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) change detection on 1-minute returns to identify
+sudden price manipulation events such as pumps, dumps, and volume spikes.
+"""
+
+import os
+from dataclasses import dataclass, field
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Optional
+
+import numpy as np
+
+MODEL_DIR = Path(os.getenv("MODEL_DIR", "models"))
+
+
+@dataclass
+class CUSUMState:
+    """Per-token tracking state for the CUSUM algorithm."""
+
+    cusum_up: float = 0.0
+    cusum_down: float = 0.0
+    prices: list[float] = field(default_factory=list)
+    volumes: list[float] = field(default_factory=list)
+    baseline_return: float = 0.0
+    baseline_volume: float = 0.0
+    samples: int = 0
+
+
+@dataclass
+class PumpDetectionResult:
+    """Result of pump/dump detection analysis."""
+
+    detected: bool
+    type: str  # 'pump', 'dump', 'volume_spike', 'none'
+    severity: str  # 'low', 'medium', 'high', 'critical'
+    cusum_value: float
+    threshold: float
+    price_change_pct: float
+    volume_spike: float
+    confidence: float
+
+
+class PumpDetectorModel:
+    """CUSUM-based pump/dump detection model.
+
+    Maintains per-token state and uses the Cumulative Sum algorithm to detect
+    statistically significant deviations in price returns and volume.
+    """
+
+    def __init__(
+        self,
+        target_mean: float = 0,
+        allowance: float = 0.5,
+        threshold: float = 4,
+        window_size: int = 60,
+        volume_spike_threshold: float = 5.0,
+    ) -> None:
+        self.target_mean = target_mean
+        self.allowance = allowance
+        self.threshold = threshold
+        self.window_size = window_size
+        self.volume_spike_threshold = volume_spike_threshold
+        self.states: dict[str, CUSUMState] = {}
+        self.version = "0.1.0"
+        self.is_loaded = False
+        self.last_trained: str | None = None
+        self.accuracy: float | None = None
+        self.model = None
+        self.engine = "cusum"
+
+    def load(self) -> None:
+        """Load an optional supervised classifier on top of the CUSUM baseline."""
+        model_path = MODEL_DIR / "pump_detector.joblib"
+        try:
+            import joblib
+
+            data = joblib.load(model_path)
+            self.model = data.get("model")
+            self.engine = data.get("engine", "xgboost")
+            self.last_trained = data.get("trained_at")
+            self.accuracy = data.get("accuracy")
+        except Exception:
+            self.model = None
+            self.engine = "cusum"
+        self.is_loaded = True
+
+    def feed(
+        self, token: str, price: float, volume: float
+    ) -> Optional[PumpDetectionResult]:
+        """Feed a single price/volume observation for a token.
+
+        Maintains per-token CUSUM state and returns a detection result
+        when enough samples have been collected (>= 2 for returns).
+        """
+        if token not in self.states:
+            self.states[token] = CUSUMState()
+
+        state = self.states[token]
+        state.prices.append(price)
+        state.volumes.append(volume)
+        state.samples += 1
+
+        # Trim to window size
+        if len(state.prices) > self.window_size:
+            state.prices = state.prices[-self.window_size :]
+        if len(state.volumes) > self.window_size:
+            state.volumes = state.volumes[-self.window_size :]
+
+        # Need at least 2 prices to compute a return
+        if len(state.prices) < 2:
+            return None
+
+        # Calculate latest return
+        prev_price = state.prices[-2]
+        if prev_price == 0:
+            return None
+        current_return = (price - prev_price) / prev_price
+
+        # Update baseline statistics using exponential moving average
+        alpha = 2.0 / (min(state.samples, self.window_size) + 1)
+        state.baseline_return = (
+            alpha * current_return + (1 - alpha) * state.baseline_return
+        )
+        state.baseline_volume = alpha * volume + (1 - alpha) * state.baseline_volume
+
+        # Normalize return relative to baseline
+        deviation = current_return - self.target_mean
+
+        # Update CUSUM statistics
+        state.cusum_up = max(0, state.cusum_up + deviation - self.allowance * 0.01)
+        state.cusum_down = max(
+            0, state.cusum_down - deviation - self.allowance * 0.01
+        )
+
+        # Check for pump/dump signals
+        detected = False
+        detection_type = "none"
+        cusum_value = 0.0
+
+        if state.cusum_up > self.threshold * 0.01:
+            detected = True
+            detection_type = "pump"
+            cusum_value = state.cusum_up
+        elif state.cusum_down > self.threshold * 0.01:
+            detected = True
+            detection_type = "dump"
+            cusum_value = state.cusum_down
+
+        # Check for volume spike
+        volume_spike = 0.0
+        if state.baseline_volume > 0:
+            volume_spike = volume / state.baseline_volume
+            if volume_spike > self.volume_spike_threshold and not detected:
+                detected = True
+                detection_type = "volume_spike"
+                cusum_value = max(state.cusum_up, state.cusum_down)
+
+        # Calculate overall price change in the window
+        price_change_pct = 0.0
+        if len(state.prices) >= 2 and state.prices[0] != 0:
+            price_change_pct = (
+                (state.prices[-1] - state.prices[0]) / state.prices[0]
+            ) * 100
+
+        # Determine severity and confidence
+        severity = self._classify_severity(
+            cusum_value, price_change_pct, volume_spike
+        )
+        confidence = self._calculate_confidence(
+            cusum_value, price_change_pct, volume_spike, state.samples
+        )
+
+        # Reset CUSUM after detection to avoid repeated alerts
+        if detected:
+            state.cusum_up = 0.0
+            state.cusum_down = 0.0
+
+        return PumpDetectionResult(
+            detected=detected,
+            type=detection_type,
+            severity=severity,
+            cusum_value=round(cusum_value, 6),
+            threshold=self.threshold * 0.01,
+            price_change_pct=round(price_change_pct, 4),
+            volume_spike=round(volume_spike, 4),
+            confidence=round(confidence, 4),
+        )
+
+    def predict(self, features: dict) -> PumpDetectionResult:
+        """Batch prediction from feature dict (API compatibility).
+
+        Accepts either:
+          - {"token": str, "prices": [float], "volumes": [float]} for batch
+          - {"token": str, "price": float, "volume": float} for single feed
+        """
+        token = features.get("token", "unknown")
+        prices = features.get("prices", [])
+        volumes = features.get("volumes", [])
+
+        # Single feed mode
+        if not prices and "price" in features:
+            price = float(features["price"])
+            volume = float(features.get("volume", 0))
+            result = self.feed(token, price, volume)
+            if result is None:
+                return PumpDetectionResult(
+                    detected=False,
+                    type="none",
+                    severity="low",
+                    cusum_value=0.0,
+                    threshold=self.threshold * 0.01,
+                    price_change_pct=0.0,
+                    volume_spike=0.0,
+                    confidence=0.0,
+                )
+            return result
+
+        # Batch mode — feed all prices/volumes and return last result
+        if len(volumes) < len(prices):
+            volumes = volumes + [0.0] * (len(prices) - len(volumes))
+
+        if self.model is not None and prices:
+            return self._predict_model_batch(prices, volumes)
+
+        last_result: Optional[PumpDetectionResult] = None
+        for p, v in zip(prices, volumes):
+            result = self.feed(token, float(p), float(v))
+            if result is not None:
+                last_result = result
+
+        if last_result is None:
+            return PumpDetectionResult(
+                detected=False,
+                type="none",
+                severity="low",
+                cusum_value=0.0,
+                threshold=self.threshold * 0.01,
+                price_change_pct=0.0,
+                volume_spike=0.0,
+                confidence=0.0,
+            )
+        return last_result
+
+    def _predict_model_batch(
+        self,
+        prices: list[float],
+        volumes: list[float],
+    ) -> PumpDetectionResult:
+        if len(prices) < 6:
+            return PumpDetectionResult(
+                detected=False,
+                type="none",
+                severity="low",
+                cusum_value=0.0,
+                threshold=self.threshold * 0.01,
+                price_change_pct=0.0,
+                volume_spike=0.0,
+                confidence=0.0,
+            )
+
+        returns = []
+        for idx in range(1, len(prices)):
+            prev = prices[idx - 1]
+            current = prices[idx]
+            returns.append(((current - prev) / prev) * 100 if prev else 0.0)
+
+        volume_avg = np.mean(volumes[:-1]) if len(volumes) > 1 and np.mean(volumes[:-1]) > 0 else 1.0
+        volume_ratio = volumes[-1] / volume_avg if volume_avg > 0 else 1.0
+        cusum_up = float(np.sum(np.maximum(returns[-8:], 0)))
+        cusum_down = float(np.sum(np.maximum(-np.array(returns[-8:]), 0)))
+        volatility_5 = float(np.std(returns[-5:])) if len(returns) >= 5 else 0.0
+        x = np.array([[returns[-1], volume_ratio, cusum_up, cusum_down, volatility_5]], dtype=np.float32)
+
+        proba = self.model.predict_proba(x)[0]
+        idx = int(np.argmax(proba))
+        detection_type = {0: "none", 1: "pump", 2: "dump"}.get(idx, "none")
+        price_change_pct = ((prices[-1] - prices[0]) / prices[0]) * 100 if prices[0] else 0.0
+        confidence = float(proba[idx])
+        severity = self._classify_severity(max(cusum_up, cusum_down), price_change_pct, volume_ratio)
+
+        return PumpDetectionResult(
+            detected=detection_type != "none",
+            type=detection_type,
+            severity=severity,
+            cusum_value=round(max(cusum_up, cusum_down), 6),
+            threshold=self.threshold * 0.01,
+            price_change_pct=round(price_change_pct, 4),
+            volume_spike=round(volume_ratio, 4),
+            confidence=round(confidence, 4),
+        )
+
+    def get_state(self, token: str) -> Optional[CUSUMState]:
+        """Get current CUSUM state for a token."""
+        return self.states.get(token)
+
+    def reset(self, token: str | None = None) -> None:
+        """Reset state for a token, or all tokens if None."""
+        if token is None:
+            self.states.clear()
+        elif token in self.states:
+            del self.states[token]
+
+    def _classify_severity(
+        self, cusum_value: float, price_change_pct: float, volume_spike: float
+    ) -> str:
+        """Classify detection severity based on multiple signals."""
+        score = 0.0
+        score += min(1.0, cusum_value / (self.threshold * 0.02)) * 0.4
+        score += min(1.0, abs(price_change_pct) / 20.0) * 0.35
+        score += min(1.0, volume_spike / (self.volume_spike_threshold * 2)) * 0.25
+
+        if score >= 0.75:
+            return "critical"
+        if score >= 0.5:
+            return "high"
+        if score >= 0.25:
+            return "medium"
+        return "low"
+
+    def _calculate_confidence(
+        self,
+        cusum_value: float,
+        price_change_pct: float,
+        volume_spike: float,
+        samples: int,
+    ) -> float:
+        """Calculate detection confidence score (0-1)."""
+        # Base confidence from CUSUM deviation
+        cusum_conf = min(1.0, cusum_value / (self.threshold * 0.015))
+
+        # Price change contribution
+        price_conf = min(1.0, abs(price_change_pct) / 15.0)
+
+        # Volume spike contribution
+        vol_conf = min(1.0, volume_spike / (self.volume_spike_threshold * 1.5))
+
+        # Sample size penalty — less confident with fewer samples
+        sample_factor = min(1.0, samples / self.window_size)
+
+        raw = (cusum_conf * 0.4 + price_conf * 0.3 + vol_conf * 0.2) * (
+            0.5 + 0.5 * sample_factor
+        )
+        return min(1.0, max(0.0, raw))