@veyralabs/skills 0.4.0 → 0.5.0

package/skills/venture-suite/venture-analyst/references/customer-dev.md

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+# Customer Development Reference
+
+Steve Blank's framework. The complement to Lean Startup.
+Source: "The Four Steps to the Epiphany" (2005) and "The Startup Owner's Manual" (2012).
+
+## Core thesis
+
+Startups are not smaller versions of large companies. They exist to search for a repeatable, scalable business model — not to execute one. This search requires talking to customers before building.
+
+Most founders skip Step 1 and go straight to building. This is why most startups fail.
+
+## The four steps
+
+### Step 1 — Customer Discovery
+
+Validate that the problem exists and that your target customer experiences it.
+
+**What you're testing:**
+- Does the problem actually exist?
+- Is your target customer the right one?
+- Is this painful enough to pay to solve?
+
+**How:**
+- Interview 20-30 potential customers
+- Listen, don't pitch
+- Ask about their current behavior, not hypothetical preferences
+- See `references/mom-test.md` for interview technique
+
+**Pass criteria:**
+- Multiple customers describe the same problem unprompted
+- They have workarounds (evidence they tried to solve it)
+- They can quantify the cost (time, money, frustration)
+
+**Failure mode:** Founders who pitch instead of listen. "Nobody told me it was a bad idea" ≠ validation.
+
+### Step 2 — Customer Validation
+
+Prove the business model. Find repeatable sales. Find a path to revenue.
+
+**What you're testing:**
+- Will they actually pay?
+- Is the sales process repeatable?
+- Can you find customers without your personal network?
+
+**How:**
+- Get 3-5 paying customers (even at a discount or free for design partners)
+- Document the sales process step by step
+- Find what objections come up and how to overcome them
+
+**Pass criteria:**
+- Customers pay without you having to chase them hard
+- Different salespeople can close using the same process
+- Customer acquisition is possible outside warm intros
+
+**Failure mode:** Getting 3 customers who are personal favors. Real validation = strangers pay.
+
+### Step 3 — Customer Creation
+
+Shift from search to execution. Scale what worked in Step 2.
+
+**What you're doing:**
+- Pick one channel and scale it
+- Invest in marketing that repeats the validated sales motion
+- Build demand generation around the validated message
+
+**Only reach this step after Step 2 is solid.** Scaling a broken sales process just burns money.
+
+### Step 4 — Company Building
+
+Transition from startup to company. Build processes, teams, and systems.
+
+**Not relevant for early validation.** Focus on Steps 1 and 2 first.
+
+## Problem vs solution interviews
+
+Two different conversations. Don't mix them.
+
+### Problem interview
+
+Goal: validate the problem exists, understand current behavior.
+
+Structure:
+1. Intro (2 min): "I'm researching how people handle X. No product to sell."
+2. Background (5 min): "Tell me about your role. What does a typical day look like?"
+3. Story (10 min): "Tell me about the last time you dealt with X. Walk me through it."
+4. Pain exploration (10 min): "What's most frustrating about that? How do you handle it now?"
+5. Wrap-up (5 min): "Who else would I talk to about this?"
+
+**Do not:** mention your solution, ask hypotheticals, ask for feature preferences.
+
+### Solution interview
+
+Only run after problem is validated.
+
+Goal: validate your specific solution design.
+
+Structure:
+1. Problem recap (3 min): confirm they have the problem
+2. Demo/mockup (10 min): show the concept, let them react
+3. Reactions (10 min): "What would you do with this? What's confusing?"
+4. Willingness to pay (5 min): not "would you pay?" — "how much do you currently spend on this?"
+
+## Earlyvangelists
+
+The best early customers share all 5 traits:
+
+1. Have the problem
+2. Know they have the problem
+3. Actively searching for a solution
+4. Cobbled together a workaround
+5. Have budget to buy a solution
+
+Finding earlyvangelists is the goal of Steps 1-2. They'll put up with incomplete products, give feedback, and refer others.
+
+**Where to find them:** niche communities (subreddits, Slack groups, LinkedIn groups), people who asked public questions about the problem, power users of adjacent tools.
+
+## Beachhead market
+
+Don't try to reach everyone. Pick the smallest possible market where you can win completely.
+
+Criteria for a good beachhead:
+- Homogeneous needs (all have the same problem in the same way)
+- Word of mouth works within the group
+- Referenceable (customers are willing to be named)
+- Financially attractive enough to sustain the business
+
+**Classic mistake:** TAM is huge, so we'll target everyone. Result: message resonates with nobody.
+
+## Customer segments to validate
+
+For B2B especially, multiple people are involved in a purchase:
+
+- **User** - uses the product daily
+- **Influencer** - recommends or blocks purchase
+- **Recommender** - brings options to the decision maker
+- **Decision maker** - approves budget
+- **Economic buyer** - controls the money
+
+Your ICP might be the User but the Economic Buyer makes the call. Understand all of them before pricing or positioning.
+
+## Signals for pivot
+
+- 10+ interviews and nobody describes the same problem
+- Everyone says "that's interesting" but won't commit to a call with their boss
+- The workaround they use is good enough and they know it
+- Problem only affects extremely niche edge cases
+- The real buyer is different from who you expected

package/skills/venture-suite/venture-analyst/references/lean-startup.md

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+# Lean Startup Reference
+
+Core methodology for venture-analyst. Eric Ries, 2011. Still the most cited startup framework.
+
+## Build-Measure-Learn loop
+
+Not a sequential process — a loop. Start from Learn and work backwards:
+
+1. **Learn** - What do we need to know? (Define the riskiest assumption)
+2. **Build** - Build the minimum thing to test that assumption
+3. **Measure** - Collect data on whether assumption is true
+
+Speed through the loop beats quality of any single cycle.
+
+**Key insight:** Most startups fail not because they can't build, but because they build something nobody wants. The loop's purpose is to surface that failure cheaply and early.
+
+## Validated learning
+
+Not all learning is equal. Vanity metrics (page views, registered users) feel good and mean nothing.
+
+**Vanity metric examples:**
+- Total signups (meaningless without activation rate)
+- Page views (meaningless without behavior)
+- Press mentions (zero correlation with revenue)
+- Lines of code shipped
+
+**Actionable metrics (validated learning):**
+- Activation rate: % of signups who complete key action
+- Retention cohorts: do users come back week 2, week 4?
+- Willingness to pay: who actually pays vs who says they would
+- NPS with follow-up: would you be disappointed if gone?
+
+**Test:** "If this metric doubled, would we change what we build next?" If no - it's vanity.
+
+## Minimum Viable Product (MVP) types
+
+### Concierge MVP
+Do the service manually for 3-5 users. No automation.
+- When: early problem validation, B2B, high-value customers
+- Cost: time only
+- What you learn: is the outcome valuable? What parts matter?
+- Example: Airbnb founders photographed first listings themselves
+
+### Wizard of Oz MVP
+System looks automated but humans do the work behind the scenes.
+- When: you want to simulate the product without building it
+- Cost: time + some frontend work
+- What you learn: do users engage with the interface? Is the outcome valuable?
+- Example: Zappos CEO manually bought shoes from stores to test demand
+
+### Landing Page / Fake Door
+Page describes product, collects signups or clicks before product exists.
+- When: demand signal, product not built
+- Cost: hours (Carrd.co is free)
+- What you learn: does the message resonate? Will people take action?
+- Caution: doesn't test willingness to pay - only interest
+
+### Piecemeal MVP
+Assemble from existing tools. Don't build infrastructure.
+- When: proving the workflow works before custom tech
+- Cost: subscription fees for tools used
+- Example: use Airtable + Zapier + Stripe before building SaaS
+
+### Single-Feature MVP
+Ship one core feature only. Cut everything else.
+- When: you know the problem, testing one solution
+- Risk: might ship the wrong feature
+- Rule: what is the single thing that makes this valuable? Ship only that.
+
+## Pivot types
+
+When data says current direction is wrong, pivot — don't persevere blindly.
+
+| Pivot type | What changes | Example |
+|-----------|--------------|---------|
+| Zoom-in | Narrow one feature into whole product | Instagram pivoted from Burbn |
+| Zoom-out | Widen — current product becomes one feature | - |
+| Customer segment | Same product, different customer | B2C → B2B |
+| Customer need | Same customer, different problem | - |
+| Platform | App → platform or vice versa | - |
+| Business architecture | High margin/low volume ↔ low margin/high volume | - |
+| Value capture | How you charge (not what you sell) | Per seat → flat rate |
+| Engine of growth | Viral → sticky → paid acquisition | - |
+| Channel | Direct → partner → marketplace | - |
+| Technology | Same problem, completely different tech | - |
+
+**When to pivot vs persevere:**
+- Experiments consistently failing over multiple cycles = pivot signal
+- One experiment failing = not enough data
+- Team excited about pivot because it's easier = wrong reason, investigate
+
+## Innovation accounting
+
+3 milestones before declaring pivot/persevere:
+
+1. Establish baseline (where are we now? honest numbers)
+2. Tune the engine (optimize toward ideal, eliminate waste)
+3. Decide pivot or persevere (did tuning move numbers? if no, pivot)
+
+## Engines of growth
+
+**Sticky engine:** Retention is the driver. Churn rate < growth rate.
+- Metric: customer lifetime value vs churn rate
+- Strategy: improve activation and retention before acquisition
+
+**Viral engine:** Users recruit users.
+- Metric: viral coefficient (K-factor). K > 1 = exponential growth
+- K = (invites sent per user) × (conversion rate of invites)
+- Strategy: build referral loop into core product
+
+**Paid engine:** Buy customers profitably.
+- Metric: LTV > CAC (lifetime value > customer acquisition cost)
+- Rule of thumb: LTV should be 3x CAC minimum
+- Strategy: find one channel that scales before optimizing others
+
+## Signals this framework applies
+
+Use lean startup when:
+- Building a new product in uncertain market
+- Validating a problem before heavy investment
+- Deciding between multiple possible solutions
+
+Don't use it to justify shipping forever-incomplete products. "Lean" = eliminate waste, not "don't finish things."

package/skills/venture-suite/venture-analyst/references/mom-test.md

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+# Mom Test Reference
+
+Rob Fitzpatrick, "The Mom Test" (2013).
+Core rule: your mom loves you and will lie to make you feel good. Most customers will too.
+The test: would your mom give you honest answers to these questions? If yes, they're good questions.
+
+## The problem with bad interviews
+
+Founders ask questions that make customers feel good but reveal nothing:
+
+- "Do you think this is a good idea?" — Everyone says yes. Means nothing.
+- "Would you use a product that does X?" — Hypothetical. People overestimate future behavior.
+- "How much would you pay for this?" — Hypothetical. Actual payments are the only data.
+
+**The lie:** "That's a great idea, you should build that." Customers say this to be kind. It's not validation.
+
+**Real validation:** someone pays, or gives up time, or says something unprompted that matches your hypothesis.
+
+## The three rules
+
+### Rule 1 — Talk about their life, not your idea
+
+Ask about what they already do. Not what they would do.
+
+Good: "How do you currently handle invoicing?"
+Bad: "Would you use an AI invoicing tool?"
+
+### Rule 2 — Ask about specifics in the past, not generics or opinions
+
+Past behavior predicts future behavior. Opinions don't.
+
+Good: "Walk me through the last time you dealt with that."
+Bad: "Do you often have trouble with that?"
+
+### Rule 3 — Listen, don't pitch
+
+If you're explaining your idea, you're not learning. You're convincing.
+The moment you pitch, all their answers become validation attempts, not honest signals.
+
+## Good vs bad questions
+
+### Good questions
+
+- "How do you currently handle [problem]? Walk me through your last time."
+- "What's the most frustrating part of that process?"
+- "How long does that take you per week?"
+- "Have you tried other solutions? What happened?"
+- "How much are you currently spending on this? Time + money."
+- "What would you do if this problem disappeared tomorrow?"
+- "Who else in your team deals with this?"
+- "How do you find out about tools like this?"
+- "What would make you switch away from your current solution?"
+
+### Bad questions
+
+- "Would you use X if it existed?"
+- "Do you think this is a good idea?"
+- "What features would you want?"
+- "How much would you pay for this?"
+- "Would you pay $X/month for this?"
+- "Don't you think [problem] is really bad?"
+- "If we built X, would that solve your problem?"
+
+## Detecting false positives
+
+Customers say things that sound like validation but aren't.
+
+**Compliments (ignore these):**
+- "That's really interesting."
+- "I could see that being useful."
+- "You should definitely build that."
+- "I know people who would use that."
+
+**Weak signals (not enough alone):**
+- "I would use it if it had X feature."
+- "I might sign up when it's live."
+- "Send me info when you launch."
+
+**Strong signals (real validation):**
+- They ask when it will be available and push for a date
+- They offer to pay now, even before it's built
+- They ask for a demo with their boss on the call
+- They describe a specific workflow where they'd use it
+- They give you a referral without being asked
+
+**The commitment test:**
+"Would you be willing to [try the beta / join a pilot / pay a deposit / introduce me to your VP]?"
+
+Their reaction tells you more than anything they said before.
+
+## Extracting signal from praise
+
+When they say "I love it" — push:
+
+- "What specifically would you use it for?"
+- "How often would that come up?"
+- "How much time/money is that costing you now?"
+- "What would you stop doing if you had this?"
+
+Turn abstract enthusiasm into concrete use cases and quantified pain.
+
+## Signs you found a real customer
+
+1. They describe the problem in detail without being asked
+2. They have a workaround they're not happy with
+3. They ask questions about your solution (not just compliment it)
+4. They connect you to other people with the same problem
+5. They put time/money on the line (small commitment = real interest)
+
+## Signs this is the wrong customer
+
+1. They can't remember a specific recent example of the problem
+2. Their "solution" is to just not deal with it
+3. They're enthusiastic but can't make a buying decision
+4. Every answer is "it depends" without specifics
+5. The problem you're describing is news to them
+
+## Interview format that works
+
+**Setup (2 min):** "I'm researching how [people like you] handle [domain]. Not selling anything. Want honest feedback."
+
+**Warm-up (3 min):** Ask about their role, day-to-day. Build context.
+
+**Core (15 min):** Story-based questions about past behavior.
+- "Tell me about the last time..."
+- "Walk me through what you did..."
+- "What happened after that?"
+
+**Quantify (5 min):** Pin down real numbers.
+- "How often does this happen?"
+- "How long does it take?"
+- "What does it cost you?"
+
+**Wrap-up (3 min):** "Who else would you suggest I talk to about this?"
+
+Total: 25-30 minutes. Don't go over — respect their time.
+
+## Pattern recognition across interviews
+
+After 10+ interviews:
+- Which problems do they all mention? (signal)
+- Which problems do only 1-2 mention? (noise or niche)
+- Which solutions do they all currently use? (incumbent to beat)
+- What do they all want but nobody builds? (gap)
+
+Don't average opinions. Look for patterns in specific behaviors.

package/skills/venture-suite/venture-analyst/references/traction.md

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+# Traction Reference
+
+Gabriel Weinberg & Justin Mares, "Traction" (2014).
+Framework for finding customer acquisition channels that actually work.
+
+## Core insight
+
+Most startups fail not because of product problems but traction problems. Building product and finding traction should happen in parallel, not sequentially.
+
+Half your time should be spent on traction, not product — even pre-launch.
+
+## The 19 traction channels
+
+1. **Viral marketing** - product spreads through existing users (Dropbox, Slack)
+2. **PR** - traditional press coverage
+3. **Unconventional PR** - stunts, giveaways, memorable campaigns
+4. **Search engine marketing (SEM)** - paid search (Google Ads)
+5. **Social and display ads** - Meta, LinkedIn, programmatic
+6. **Offline ads** - billboards, radio, TV, print
+7. **Search engine optimization (SEO)** - organic search
+8. **Content marketing** - blog, YouTube, podcast as acquisition
+9. **Email marketing** - list building and outbound sequences
+10. **Engineering as marketing** - free tools, calculators, embeds that drive signups
+11. **Targeting blogs** - get covered by influential niche blogs
+12. **Business development** - partnerships with complementary products
+13. **Sales** - direct outbound sales, inside sales teams
+14. **Affiliate programs** - revenue share for referrals
+15. **Existing platforms** - App Store, Shopify App Store, Chrome extensions, marketplace distribution
+16. **Trade shows** - industry events, conferences
+17. **Offline events** - meetups, workshops, demos
+18. **Speaking engagements** - conferences, podcasts, webinars
+19. **Community building** - Slack groups, forums, ambassador programs
+
+## Bullseye Framework
+
+Don't try all 19 channels. Use the Bullseye to find the one that works.
+
+### Step 1 — Brainstorm (outer ring)
+For each of the 19 channels, answer:
+- How could we use this channel?
+- What would success look like?
+- How could we test it cheaply?
+
+Produces 19 rough hypotheses.
+
+### Step 2 — Rank (middle ring)
+Score each channel on 3 criteria (1-3):
+- Probability of working
+- Volume potential (enough customers to matter)
+- Cost per acquisition (time + money)
+
+Pick the top 6 channels. These are your "promising" channels.
+
+### Step 3 — Test (inner ring — the bullseye)
+Pick the 3 channels with highest combined score. Run cheap, fast tests on each simultaneously.
+
+Each test:
+- Fixed budget (~€200-500)
+- Fixed time (2-4 weeks)
+- One metric: cost per lead, or signups, or revenue
+
+### Step 4 — Focus
+One test will outperform the others. Focus 100% on that channel. Optimize it until it no longer scales.
+
+When the channel plateaus, go back to Step 2.
+
+## Channel selection by stage
+
+Different channels dominate at different stages:
+
+| Stage | Best channels |
+|-------|--------------|
+| Pre-PMF | Direct sales, outreach, niche blogs, communities |
+| Early growth | Content, SEO, partnerships, email |
+| Scaling | Paid acquisition (once LTV:CAC proven), viral, affiliates |
+| Dominant | Brand, PR, events |
+
+**Pre-PMF rule:** channels that require scale to work (SEO, paid ads, viral) are wrong for early stage. You don't have enough data to optimize them. Use channels where you control the targeting.
+
+## Channel-market fit
+
+Some channels only work for specific markets:
+
+| Channel | Works for |
+|---------|-----------|
+| Cold outbound | B2B with clear ICP, high LTV |
+| Content/SEO | Markets that Google actively |
+| Product-led viral | Consumer, collaboration tools |
+| Community | Niche markets with strong identity |
+| Paid social | B2C with wide audience |
+| Trade shows | B2B with offline buying decisions |
+| Partnerships | Products with complementary distribution |
+
+Picking the wrong channel for your market wastes 6 months.
+
+## Cost benchmarks (rough, 2024)
+
+| Channel | Metric | B2C benchmark | B2B benchmark |
+|---------|--------|--------------|--------------|
+| Facebook/Instagram ads | CPL | €3-8 | €15-30 |
+| Google Search | CPL | €5-15 | €20-60 |
+| LinkedIn ads | CPL | - | €40-100 |
+| Cold email | CPL | - | €20-80 (time cost) |
+| Content/SEO | CPL | €5-20 (long term) | €15-50 (long term) |
+| Referral/viral | CPL | €1-5 | €5-20 |
+
+LTV must be at least 3x CAC for paid channels to be viable.
+
+## Traction metrics by channel
+
+**Viral / product-led:**
+- K-factor = (invites per user) × (invite conversion rate). Target K > 0.5 for meaningful viral effect
+- Time to viral loop: how fast does one user create another?
+
+**Content / SEO:**
+- Organic sessions per month
+- Keyword rankings for high-intent terms
+- Time to rank: SEO takes 3-6 months minimum to show results
+
+**Email:**
+- List growth rate per week
+- Open rate: >30% is good for cold; >50% for warm
+- Click-through: >5% is strong
+
+**Paid acquisition:**
+- CPL and CAC (cost per acquired customer)
+- Payback period: how many months to recoup CAC?
+- ROAS (return on ad spend)
+
+**Sales:**
+- Leads per week
+- Conversion rate (leads to paying)
+- Sales cycle length
+- Average contract value
+
+## Applying to venture analysis
+
+In Phase 3 (validation), recommend channels based on:
+
+1. Market type (B2B vs B2C)
+2. LTV estimate (high LTV = more channels viable)
+3. Available budget
+4. Target customer location (online? offline? specific communities?)
+
+For zero-budget startups, the viable channels are:
+- Direct outreach (cold email/DM) — time only
+- Niche community posting (Reddit, specific Slack/Discord groups) — time only
+- Engineering as marketing — build a free tool that attracts ICPs
+- Content on a specific topic ICP searches for
+
+For startups with €100-500/month budget:
+- Fake door test (landing page + small paid traffic)
+- LinkedIn outreach with Sales Navigator trial
+- Sponsored newsletter in a niche (often €100-300 per send)